Home U.S. Coin Forum

You wanna know where gold and silver are going?

topstuftopstuf Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
Up. To unimagined levels. Not ....straight .....up, but .....waaaaaay....up.

This country is done. Kaput. We have a boomer generation that is going to QUIT (if they can) in 2008.

If they can't, tough cookies. Demand will drop for almost everything except health care and necessities and commodities.

In other words, EXPENSES will rise as INCOMES ......plummet.

Deflation will be the name of the game. Now, "deflation" has historically been bad for gold, but THIS deflation will make payment of US debt IMPOSSIBLE and will lead to the ultimate and unavoidable destiny of ALL fiat (nothing but paper) currencies as nearly all coin collectors know.

So....deflation means less tax revenue and no savings = great demand for something to live on.

The whole mess is about to fall down.

Here's a recent Jack Sirard column.

77% of Americans have less than $37,000 for their retirement.



.37k for da resta their life....hahahahahaha

YOWIE! Printing press to the rescue. Hyperinflation of currency with dwindling of assets.

Jobs FLOODING to India. Believe it. It's happening NOW. Intel is developing the ENTIRE successor to Pentium 4 in India.

Scoff if you want but I pity anyone who has only paper assets (or already impossible for a young family to buy) REAL ESTATE.

A....MINIMUM 25% of your net worth should be in gold.

It is NOT fun to write this. I am 63. ALL my plans have been changed.

Those of you who are in your 20's, 30's and 40's have already been TOLD that Social Security will not be there for you. Are you ignoring that?

At a rate of 5% (current) or 8% (max projected) bond yield, it will take you the following amount
to get $1,000 per month for your retirement.

5% you will need $240,000 per $1,000 a month income in retirement.
8% will take $150,000 to get a grand a month.

And that is GROSS and TAXABLE.

How many of you have saved up $960,000 for your old age? hmmm? And that is for a MODEST income.

Now who's gonna pay up and with what jobs? We are in DEBT, people.......big time.

Anyone speak Mandarin?

Gold is PRIVATE. (this all applies to silver too)
«134

Comments

  • As long as I own my own business I really don't worry about all the gloom and doom you are talking about. I control my destiny.
  • RussRuss Posts: 48,515 ✭✭✭
    Gee, I've never seen this mantra before.

    Russ, NCNE
  • mgoodm3mgoodm3 Posts: 17,497 ✭✭✭
    heartwarming tale.
    coinimaging.com/my photography articles Check out the new macro lens testing section
  • Hey! if you know the future so well, what are the lottery numbers I need to choose?
    Today's mighty oak is just yesterday's nut that held its ground.
  • WondoWondo Posts: 2,916 ✭✭✭
    jbsteven,

    good point and I am with you - hell, I'm in trash - the market that does not go away!!
    Wondo

  • jbsteven is gonna hire me to open his San Diego toner branch after I retire from the Navy, so I'm hooked up image
    Then maybe I can afford a Movado watch image
  • topstuftopstuf Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
    jbsteven......who buys from you? Does their income make any difference? If you are a manufacturer, you truly don't need to worry. Lotsa cheap labor available now and more in the future.

    good to see all the derision though. Reaffirms the contrarian theory.

  • topstuf

    www.quickpassport.com
    www.usbirthcertificate.com

    People will always travel and need birth certificates


  • << <i>Then maybe I can afford a Movado watch >>



    ahem

    Only Rolexes are allowed if you are working for me around here. image
  • Wolf359Wolf359 Posts: 7,653 ✭✭✭
    37K for retirement plus Social Security is more than Americans have had in any past generation. I didn't see any economic crashes before, don't see it now.



  • Ah, nothing like a dose of reality. I'm with topstuf 110%.

    Forum AdministratorPSA & PSA/DNA ForumModerator@collectors.com | p 800.325.1121 | PSAcard.com

  • Well I for one think 2004 is going to be a good year with lots of new jobs created here in America, thanks to Mr. George Bush, our President.
    When I was a child, I caught a fleeting glimpse
  • fishcookerfishcooker Posts: 3,446 ✭✭


    You know, guys like McCoy in that article linked above really are clueless. Sirad makes himself look bad by printing such garbage. He can't figure out why 77% don't save enough but the majority know they have to?

    Maybe he will wave his magic wand, and January 1st everyone over 50 will have all those extra dollars lying around to max out a 401k and IRA.

    Knuckleheads.

  • topstuftopstuf Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
    jbsteven......well, heck, YOU are in the best bizz of all. All da GETAWAYS gonna need ya.

    Wolf....... Quick! Call the Bush administration. They will put your slogan to work TOMORROW. You really CAN live on SS + 37K? Write dat BOOK NOW! Best seller comin up.

    My house, cars, gold, and coins are all paid for but there ain't a way in hell I could do it. Mebbe in Mexico. Gotta check into dat lil town Luz De Culo.

    image

  • lavalava Posts: 3,286 ✭✭✭
    Interesting comments topstuf. While I agree with some of your points, I'm not sure I agree with the conclusion to run out and buy gold. If consumers (presumably on both an individual level and a corporate level) are "poor," then wouldn't the market for gold be affected like the market for anything else?
    I brake for ear bars.
  • TonekillerTonekiller Posts: 1,308 ✭✭
    Darn.....I better buy a gun and move to the country to raise sheep and heard the kids!

  • LAWMANLAWMAN Posts: 1,278
    I think the mistake we make is to even think of retirement. If you have figured out what it is that you like to do and can actually live on the proceeds, then, short of horrible illness, why ever retire? Oh, you can work less as you get older, but, retirement looks like the trap that comes at the end of everything Madison Avenue has promised us since the 50's, you know, the Ozzie and Harriett world and lifestyle where you retire in the little home with the white, picket fence.

    We live in a world which is reeling from staggering changes in the last 40 or so years and with even more staggering changes coming. The person who can age and be nimble, be able to adapt, be able to think clearly about how much to spend on your lifestyle, be able to watch for the changes -- that is the person who will age gracefully.

    Every time I watch an older friend who actually retires (younger ones too), if their health is good, they usually come screaming back into the world after a year or two. They can't stand sitting at home, watching TV with the Missus, who now decides that, since they don't have anything to do all day, she'll come up with a list. And there's only so many cruises you can take.
    DSW
  • topstuftopstuf Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
    lava......Nothing SAYS that Americans will be buying the gold.

    However, when I had the coin shop open in 1980, people were PRAYING for a return to $400.

    AND... during the intervening years of gold's drop to 252, we did not have a competing currency (Euro) nor a budding CAPITALIST China.

    Really THINK about China. They NEED everything. They HAVE jobs and FACTORIES. They have raw materials. They are FAMILIAR with government CONTROL (to an extreme) They have JUST been allowed to begin buying gold. They REMEMBER how nice it would have been to have gold during Mao's reign.

    If China were just a further western extension of the US, people from HERE would be FLOCKING there to develop it.

    We is a "has been" They is "up an comin"

    Now this is all CONJECTURE on my part. Otherwise I would have EVERYTHING in gold. I don't.
    But I fully expect to at a future date.
    Hope not.
    But EXPECT to.



  • << <i>Darn.....I better buy a gun and move to the country to raise sheep and heard the kids! >>



    dude, you already do that.
  • AAAAUUUUUUUUGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!! THE SKY IS FALLING, THE SKY IS FALLING!!
    The guy must be a Democrat realizing that all future money will go straight to the giveaway programs and no one will be working!
    HEAD TUCKED AND ROLLING ALONG ENJOYING THE VIEW! [Most people I know!]

    NEVER LET HIPPO MOUTH OVERLOAD HUMMINGBIRD BUTT!!!

    WORK HARDER!!!!
    Millions on WELFARE depend on you!
  • WondoWondo Posts: 2,916 ✭✭✭
    Time to Break out my copy of Atlas Shrugged. image
    Wondo

  • nwcsnwcs Posts: 13,387 ✭✭✭
    Thankfully my hope is not dependent upon the economy, the country, or things of that nature. As it is, there is nothing new under the sun.
  • RussRuss Posts: 48,515 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Time to Break out my copy of Atlas Shrugged. >>



    One of the greatest novels ever written. image

    Russ, NCNE
  • WondoWondo Posts: 2,916 ✭✭✭
    Russ,

    Right on!! It was written before the time of the AH Kennedy. image
    Wondo

  • RussRuss Posts: 48,515 ✭✭✭


    << <i>It was written before the time of the AH Kennedy. >>



    ...and during a time of really ugly half dollars. image

    Russ, NCNE
  • WondoWondo Posts: 2,916 ✭✭✭
    Is the coin ugly or just the portrait of Ben? Kinda a chicken or egg question? OH, LUCY.......................................!!!!!
    Wondo

  • I think that Topstuf makes some good points, but I also agree completly with Lawman. Many of us have some pretty old parents, and that Golden Years crap is just that. I do belive that there are going to be lots of bullets to dodge the next few years,and a good time to prepare for the bullets headed your way is NOW. The best plans have to be those where you can keep working some as long as you are able. Any type of work related income will be a must for many, plus it will keep people in shape mentally and physically. One other item that I think is a sleeper for 2004 forward is that in the new drug bill just passed by Bush and the Boys managed to get a big tax deduction passed by the Kennedy group. I do not know the details of this but starting next year you can put lots of money in a medical savings plan and it is TAX DEDUCTABLE.
  • I, for one, am an optimist. Americans are hard working and creative. Technology has vastly improved our standard of living. I could go on but I'm busy working and being creative image

    Happy New Years!
  • ElcontadorElcontador Posts: 7,412 ✭✭✭✭✭
    This thread reminds me of the "Elvis Factor." In an extensive survey highlighted by a local talk show host, 11% of its participants said that if they sent a letter to Elvis, he would receive it.

    It's just like the Black Helicopters, Chupacabras, the Trilateral Commission, etc., Blah, blah, blah.

    I live my life. You do what you want to do. There's an obvious disconnect here.
    "Vou invadir o Nordeste,
    "Seu cabra da peste,
    "Sou Mangueira......."
  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 7,936 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "Globalization", simply put, means a trend towards equal standards of living around the globe.

    If one believes that globalization will continue, then one has to conclude that our (USA) standards
    of living will decline while standards of living in other countries will improve.

    And how will the lower living standards manifest themseleves ? I believe that incomes will remain
    nearly flat, while the prices for essential goods will increase (some dramatically).

    Of course, we could throw up a wall around the US and go into isolation to stop globalization.
    That may actually have some merits, but a lot of detractors as well. For one thing, such a plan
    would be an incentive for foreigners to dump their vast holdings of dollars and not support the
    governmen't budget deficit by buying US Treasury Bonds. The result would be a "crash" in
    the dollar.

    All of this goes untill the oil starts running out - than all bets are off.

    At this point, I do not see any pleasant scenaro.
    Retirement for a wide swath of the US population will be bleak. You will see multi-generational familes
    come together and live in the same house like people do in other countries. So depending upon your
    opinions of your in-laws, that may or may not be a good thing.


    Either way, tangible assets appear to be the way to go. If you prepare with that in mind,
    the future may not be so bad.


  • cladkingcladking Posts: 28,305 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ten years ago we were just one good panic away from a catastrophy. The debt as
    a percentage of total wealth was nearly as great and the trends were mostly against
    us. Today we are enterring the era of the greatest transfer of wealth hat the world
    has ever seen as the baby boomers inherit their parents wealth. The drop in the dol-
    lar is long overdue and will go a long long way to stabilizing world trade. While there
    are obvious structural, institutional, and societal problems, they are nothing that didn't
    exist ten years ago and the trend seems to be toward some resolution of some of the
    more serious problems. Productivity continues to soar and the current economy is be-
    ginning to emerg from the recent recesssion.

    The money is as strong as people think it is and there is nothing on the horizon that
    should shake people's confidence in it. Yes, there is likely to be some real inflation in
    the coming years but this is a far cry from a collapse. This inflation too, while destructive
    to commerce, will tend to drive the currency to a more stabile point.

    It would seem that today we are only one technological break through from the most
    prosperous times ever known.
    Tempus fugit.
  • BlackhawkBlackhawk Posts: 3,897 ✭✭✭
    How long can productivity continue to increase before it effects people adversely. If one can now do the work of four, where are the three displaced workers to work?...where are they to get the money to buy the product that the one remaining productive employee produces?

    In the US, we all expect to make $30.00 an hour while paying 10¢ for a product. This habit has been supported by moving our manufacturing overseas so that items can be produced for less by the low paid workers, but guess what?, we're running out of countries to move operations to. No country can expect to last long when all their goods are produced elsewhere, and we can't all work at McDonalds, be stock brokers, or CEOs. Eventually the globalization will catch up with the average American, and we'll be sorry when it does...we'll no longer have our "American" way of life.
    "Have a nice day!"
  • dcarr,

    We finally disagree on something. The oil will never run out. It is not a "fossil" fuel, nor is it a limited resource as those who refine it and sell it to us would have us believe.

    Oil is created by the Earth and it is an ongoing phenomenon. More oil spills up from cracks in the ocean floor everyday then the entire planet uses.

    Do a little research on the subject, but stay away from papers underwrittten by energy companies.

    Wells that were capped off in Texas back in the 40s and 50s and considered to be empty are now found to have filled up again, but due to the EPA, we can't open up those wells and pump it out again.

    It's to the oil company's advantage to continue the lies as they can raise the price further and further upward and in conjuction with the "greenies" of the world acting on their behalf as usefull idiots, it's perhaps the greatest scam in world history.

    I have alot to say about silver and gold too as most of you know, I also had the guts to take the equity out of a nearly paid off 190K home and my entire life savings and put it into silver and gold bullion, so it should be quite clear as to where I stand on these issues.
    "Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
    John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
  • cladkingcladking Posts: 28,305 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Known oil reserves peaked in 1985 and consumption has continued to increase exponentially.
    Tempus fugit.


  • << <i>If one believes that globalization will continue, then one has to conclude that our (USA) standards will decline >>





    << <i>How long can productivity continue to increase before it effects people adversely >>



    Both the above statements don't make sense to me. Trade is mutually beneficial. Both nations involved in trade are better off for trading. If it wasn't the trade wouldn't be done. Economics 101.

    Productivity improvements increase the standard of living overall. If we can make more with less everybody (on average) is better off. Economics 101.

    Naturally those who lose their current job due to global trade or improved productivity are worse off, but society overall is better off.
  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 7,936 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Deadhorse,

    I think we only disagee a little bit. I agree that underground oil is produced by
    on-going biochemical processes. However, it is my (unproven) opinion that the
    rate of oil consumption by man is far ahead of the Earth's rate of oil generation.

    I also agree that the oil industry has not always been "truthful".
    For example, have they intentionally/successfully squelched any "cold fusion"
    technology ? No one knows for sure. But you'd think that the palladium producers
    would be working against them.

    Anyway, I still think that an energy crisis is looming in the future.
    Just think how much oil a billion Chinese driving cars will consume.

    PS: I'd be happy to see cheap gasoline prices so I can keep on feeding
    my muscle car collection !

  • topstuftopstuf Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Well, in any event.......

    Diversify
    Buy income producing assets
    Buy precious metals for insurance
    Don't have a closed mind
    Be ready to change on a moment's notice
    Pay off debt
    Own a gun
    Enjoy your coin collections
    Hate NAFTA and GATT (and Republicans and Democrats)
    Remember the chaff that is voting on the same day you do
    Research and learn
    Retire when you WANT to.....after 30 years in coins and pawn, I discovered my NATURAL calling is ..BUM
    and

    Have a HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!

    Topstuf
    Bum, ret'd.


    image


  • << <i>Deadhorse,
    Anyway, I still think that an energy crisis is looming in the future.
    Just think how much oil a billion Chinese driving cars will consume.

    PS: I'd be happy to see cheap gasoline prices so I can keep on feeding
    my muscle car collection ! >>



    I wouldn't be surprised at all by an energy crisis, but I am just as sure that it will be manufactured, just like the one in the late 70s.

    Cheap gas sounds good to me too, I'm a bit of a gearhead as well. Though my monster baby really needs to run on 110 octane avgas in order to turn up the boost.

    Nothing quite like the sound of twin monster turbos spooling up..............image
    "Lenin is certainly right. There is no subtler or more severe means of overturning the existing basis of society(destroy capitalism) than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and it does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."
    John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
  • RussRuss Posts: 48,515 ✭✭✭
    Deadhorse,

    We finally agree on something. We've been "running out" of oil for the last 30 years and yet today the known reserves are as high as they've ever been.

    Russ, NCNE

  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 7,936 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Cheap gas sounds good to me too, I'm a bit of a gearhead as well. Though my monster baby really needs to run on 110 octane avgas in order to turn up the boost.
    Nothing quite like the sound of twin monster turbos spooling up..............image >>



    So you're a turbo guy image
    I'm a fan of big vintage V8s.
    Here is my "stable":

    Carr's Cars

    So what vehicle does your twin-turbo monster reside in ?
  • Somebody did not take their medication this morning! image

    While there is some merit to topstuf's comments the world's economies are resilient. WW2 seemed like the end of the world too.

    The fallacy with the "everything will be made abroad" argument is if the US is broke because all jobs went overseas then who will buy the goods made abroad? The Chinese? Despite the hype China remains a back water agricultural nation. Surely this will change but not in the lifetime of anyone reading this today.

    This type of ranting reminds me of the 1970s and Howard Ruff who told people to build bomb shelter's in their back yards, buy guns/ammo and gold. If things were to getthat bad i doubt I would want to live that way. So, I will continue to live above ground in a nice suburb buying and making money in stocks. Who made 30%+ this year in the market while the chicken little were hiding in .00001% market markets? image

    As for gold here's an excerpt of an article linked below:

    Still, before putting too much stock in gold, consider the point Mathew Emmert made earlier this year. "A dollar invested in gold about 200 years ago would be worth about, well, a dollar today (adjusted for inflation)." That's not a good thing.

    Two other factors do not work in gold's long-term favor. First, almost all the gold ever mined is unused (it just sits in vaults or is passed down as jewelry from generation to generation). Second, as the price increases, previously uneconomical reserves will be mined and swell supply.

    Perhaps ironically, given its reputation as a store of value, gold is a highly speculative investment at today's prices.


    Full Article
  • If you are smart enough, you would reallocate your assets, in, as some people here have posted hypothetically, in China. There is always money to be made for those who are creative.

    I believe the problem is that in the US the workforce is stagnant. They expect a status quo no matter what level of skill or education you have. Sure if big business keeps moving jobs overseas then no one in the US will be able to buy anything. However it is up to the individual worker to pick a career and keep his/her skills top notch, even if it means restarting a career and/or going back to school to make sure your job qualifications are so valuable that you will always be in demand. It may not be the same position with the same company but someone will always want your skills. It is no one else's fault if you lose your job because of some faceless corporate giant, especially since you know exactly what may happen.

    BTW I did learn to speak Chinese. Did you?
    image

    I can think of a dozen reasons not to have high capacity magazines, but it's the reasons I haven't thought about that I need them.
  • I like my 16 cylinders below even though the car only gets 9 mpg in the city. image

    image
    image
  • BlackhawkBlackhawk Posts: 3,897 ✭✭✭
    The earth, no matter how big, is a closed system...when one gains, another loses. I myself do not worry about it...if it gets too bad, I'll just shoot my neighbor and take what they have. I hope they have a nice foreign made car or motorbike.imageimage
    "Have a nice day!"
  • I like the best way to hedge both arguments. That is pre 33 gold coins in MS64,65 and 66 in PCGS and NGC holders. They look great and there is little downside risk. The upside potential if gold does go way high is tremendous. It is not an investment per se, more like insurance and they are great to collect as a type set! image
    In an insane society, a sane person will appear to be insane.
  • Okay you guys. I'm gonna stir the pot again. I feel like I must stir the pot on this issue because due to all the "gloom and doom" theories out there. Yes, I read all of this thread and thought about it. No, this negativity has not changed my very basic investment advice. No, I am not a know-it-all. Although I earned a graduate degree, I'm just an average guy who's started from nothing, got completely wiped out in the 1991 recession (doing investing the ways that are often mentioned in this forum, i.e., the way our culture teaches), and who's rebuilt wealth from nothing again (doing it the "debt free" way and following a few very basic principles). Please, whatever you do, don't take advice from broke people. It's amazing how many broke people have such strong opinions on how to handle money. Basically, what this thread is saying is that the economy is going to collapse. Fine.

    I just got through reading Dave Ramsey's new book, The Total Money Makeover, (c) 2003 by Dave Ramsey. Yes, I know he is a smartaleck, but if you just listen to what he has to say, sometimes he makes some sense. I highly recommend this book for anyone interested in personal finance. In it, he specifically discusses gold. Without plajorizing his book, I'd like to share a few of his thoughts here (he also said this on his radio talk show). In his new book, he says:

    "Myth: Gold is a good investment and will cover me if the economy collapses.
    Truth: Gold has a poor track record and isn't used when an economy collapses."

    He says that since the beginning of time, gold has been the standard of exchange. The mythsayer follows this up with the fact that in a failed economy, gold will retain its value. The truth is that if you go all the way back to Napoleon's time, gold has averaged around 2% per year. In just the past 50 years, it has averaged 4.4% per year, or about the same as inflation. During this same time, good growth-stock mutual funds have made around 12% per year, and have had less volitility. Even if the economy were to fail, a barter system would evolve where people would trade goods and services.

    By the way, if you had been following a few very basic investment principles during the year 2003, you would have achieved the following results:
    DJIA: 25% gain
    NASDAQ: 50% gain
    Real Estate: 9% gain

    Cha-ching! I still recommend growth-stock mutual funds and paid-for real estate for long-term wealth-building. I also recommend money market accounts for the short-term emergency fund. Beyond this, you are statistically likely to underperform these investments.
    Author of MrKelso's official cheat thread words of wisdom on 5/30/04. image
    imageimage
    Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
  • dcarrdcarr Posts: 7,936 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Truth: Gold has a poor track record and isn't used when an economy collapses."
    Even if the economy were to fail, a barter system would evolve where people would trade goods and services.
    >>



    The price/value of gold went UP during the great depression of 1929-1933.

    Gold could very well again be the preferred medium of exchange in a barter system,
    just like it was through the ages.

    Personally, I'm just not interested in investing in someone else's company (stocks),
    no matter how much they go up (or down). A stock certificate is just no fun at all.
    I'd rather get more enjoyment out of my money by putting it into a classic car, a
    nice coin, etc. Or by putting it into my own company. But that philosophy certainly
    isn't right for everybody.



  • nankrautnankraut Posts: 4,565 ✭✭✭
    I wuz feelin' pretty frisky for an old fart--until I read this thread. Now, I'm a-gonna hafta kill myself before it's too late.
    I'm the Proud recipient of a genuine "you suck" award dated 1/24/05. I was accepted into the "Circle of Trust" on 3/9/09.


  • << <i>Well I for one think 2004 is going to be a good year with lots of new jobs created here in America, thanks to Mr. George Bush, our President. >>




    I agree with you, the only problem with the new jobs replacing the old ones is that they are at Walmart or Temp. help services all of which pay little more then the minumum wage. Everyone out of work practice now, May I help you, or the ever popular "would you like fries wth that sir".

    Les
    The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
  • stmanstman Posts: 11,352 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Everyone out of work practice now, May I help you, or the ever popular "would you like fries wth that sir". >>



    image
    Please... Save The Stories, Just Answer My Questions, And Tell Me How Much!!!!!

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Emoji
Image
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file