Gold Closed at $395.00
fountainheadgold
Posts: 2,467 ✭
Michael
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fountainheadgold
Posts: 2,467 ✭
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Cameron Kiefer
and I'm one of the biggest Godbugs out there!
Forum AdministratorPSA & PSA/DNA ForumModerator@collectors.com | p 800.325.1121 | PSAcard.com
Noooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!! This is truly a mixed blessing.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
what did silver and platinum close at??
michael
Cameron Kiefer
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
Edited to Add: I had this exact same discussion with the manager of Vanguard's Gold and Precious Metals fund a couple of years ago. He told me gold was only appropriate during inflation. I told him I disagreed. Now look at where we are now. There is virtually NO inflation right now, yet gold is very high. Why? It is because it has been a good short-term investment.
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
<< <i>In the long run, gold is a horrible investment. It has not kept up with the long term track record of stocks. In the short run lately, gold has been a very good investment. As more people jump back into the recovering stock market, I would think the price of gold will fall. I would dump it at around $400/ounce if you have any. >>
Personally, I don't think you could be any more wrong if you tried. In fact, I'm literally banking on it.
I do think there will be some profit taking and resistance along the way. I don't believe this is the beginning of the big run up, not just yet, but it does portend where we are going. I do think we are still 12-18 months from that time.
For those that have poo-poo'd silver bullion, they will also regret not getting on board the train when all the indicators were pointing in that direction.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
Capitalism....ain't it great!!
I'll put my faith in tangibles. The game against gold has been rigged for the past 20 years. That's no secret. But that game is unraveling.
roadrunner
<< <i> I also invested in gold via mutual funds several years back with your same logic. I lost my ass on it. The long-term returns of gold and gold mutual funds is HORRIBLE. >>
Therein lies the problem, first your timing was way too early and second , it was mutual funds.
I wouldn't invest in any fund, but I do invest in the real deal. Gold bullion that I can hold in my hand if I so desire. Had you invested in tangible bullion a few years ago, you would be up 60% right now.
<< <i>Gold has no real purpose anymore. >>
I don't even know how to approach an answer to that one. All I can say is you simply haven't looked around. BTW, you do understand that China has been buying up all the bullion they can for the last several years, don't you? Some reports say they control 60% of the world's refined gold. That should make you think just a bit. The Arab oil producing states are considering changing the exchange of their oil for either Euros or gold, not US dollars. That should also give you cause for concern.
BTW, nobody beats a deadhorse..............................
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
1. Gold is near a 10-year high,
2. Gold is a good investment when there is high inflation (does NOT exist),
3. Gold has no real purpose anymore, and
4. People are moving their investments back into stocks and real estate and out of things like gold, in parallel with the economic recovery.
I also disagree that individual decisions are better than mutual funds. I did a chart on the Vanguard Gold and Precious Metals Fund (VGPMX) versus the S&P 500 index over the past 10 years: Chart. The fund went up about 30%, while the S&P 500 index went up about 120% -- or FOUR TIMES THE RETURN. Even if you chart the spot price of gold, you end up with similar numbers (only it will be worse because an individual's costs are going to be much higher, on average, than a mutual fund).
To everyone watching this, I am trying to drive home a point that gold is a HORRIBLE investment in the long run. Look at any 10-year chart you so choose. GOLD CAN, HOWEVER, BE A GOOD SHORT TERM INVESTMENT. All I am saying that with gold at about a 10-year high, now is a very good time to bail out of a very poor long term investment. I know I can be opinionated, but I am just trying to help. I encourage everyone watching this to do your own research and make an informed decision.
Edited to Add: I just had an idea. Let's ask some self-made millionaires how they made their fortune. If there are any self-made millionaires watching this, how did you become rich? I am a self-made man myself who started with nothing. I am not quite a millionaire yet, but I'm currently about half way there. For myself, I've tried good growth stock mutual funds, individual stocks, real estate (rental properties), precious metals, simple savings accounts, and rare coins. I have created a lot of money through real estate (rental properties), good growth stock mutual funds, and rare coins. I have lost money on individual stocks and precious metals.
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
Edited to Add: If I had invested only in gold after college, I would only be about 1/10 my way to a million instead of 1/2!!!!!
Check out a Vanguard Roth IRA.
I wouldn't invest in either. I feel I have better options for investment in other vehicles. However, if I thought gold was going up and going to be a good investment, then I'd go with gold stock rather than bullion. Here's why:
Let's say gold is at $400 and it costs the mining company $380 to produce. So, they're making $20 bucks per once (so am I if I invest in their stock). If gold moves up to $420, the company's profits have doubled which will (more or less depending on how perfect the market is) be reflected in the stock price with a doubling. To similarly double your money on physical gold bullion (without leveraging by borrowing money to invest in gold), the price of gold would have to double to $800.
Obviously, there are issues with the stock market that drive increases other than just profit (hence various P/E ratios). But, in general you get a better return on the way up with stocks. On the other hand, the principle works in reverse on the way down so be ready for a wild ride.
Transaction costs are also lower with stocks (narrower buy/sell spread, no shipping costs, no storage costs, no need to insure it, etc.).
Again, I invest in neither and am not advocating either. Just pointing out a method frequently used by serious gold bulls to get the most bang for their invested dollar.
WH
As for precious metals stocks as opposed to physical accumulation, that's a no brainer...go with the stocks or mutual funds. The facts of the rate of return between the two aren't even debatable. Of course, this assumes you are projecting a precious metals bull market.
When we are planning for posterity, we ought to remember that virtue is not hereditary.
Thomas Paine
<< <i>If I had invested only in gold after college, I would only be about 1/10 my way to a million instead of 1/2!!!!! >>
If you had graduated a couple of years ago you'be be even closer. Please tell me you are up 60% on your investments. If only I had invested in Dell in 1985, if, if, if.
I don't want to invest in gold in 1987 or any other year you want to use as your long term example. I have been investing heavily in the last 15 months or so and therefore I count my balance based on that, and BTW, I'm looking pretty good there.
Today's political world, investments and currencies are what they are today. That seems to be a huge stumbling block for the nay-sayers. You cannot predict the volatility of the current economy based on the past.
Yes, it's always good to look at past trends, to follow them blindly is shortsighted.
Each to his own, but I sure wouldn't want people to sell at $400 today based on my opinion. They might come looking for me in a couple of years and it wouldn't be to say thank you.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
don't see people bailing out of them. Stocks in general are still
80% on average on what they were at the peak in 2000. No bull
market in the US (or probably for all time) has ever begun at
valuations so high. So I guess we've invented a way to promote
constant excessive spending and debt yet still live high off the
hog.... a new paradighm has been created...just like the ever-
rising NASDAQ in 2000.
2. There is no high inflation? Give me a break. The numbers are
massaged and have been since 1980. Are these items in the
index: (that really cost us): housing, car parts, credit cards, fuel,
foods, services, college tuition, sports tickets, cigs, etc.
I'm sure the price of computers
is in the index since the price of these continues to drop. While
numbers of 1-2% are routinely tossed out every year, I'd bet
the actual CPI number across the board is more like 4-5%.
3. People are moving into real estate and stocks? Maybe here in
US where they know nothing else. But overseas, gold is picking
up the slack. The bubble economies have been moving around
the world since Japan tanked a decade ago. We are next in line.
China will follow us. WE are following the same path Japan took
from their amazing growth in the 1980's to the present.
4. The economic recovery? There is none. The 7.2% GDP tossed
about is half due to war spending and the end game of the FED
increasing the money supply by a ton in the first half of the year.
Real growth may have been in the 2-3% range. We are selling
our economy and sending it overseas. That is not a recovery.
Jobs are not being created, but being lost. But the spin doctors
report just the opposite by massaging the numbers. After 6
months out of work, you are no longer considered unemployed.
(what?). And those that have found employment traded in a
nice tech job for working at Home Depot (a new job created!).
5. Since 1913 when we created the FED we have been on an
inflationary trend. The Keynesian philosophy has been
the driving force since the 1920's. When you get in trouble,
print more money. Increase spending. It's worked for 80-90
years, esp. during the boom years in the first 3/4 of this
century. Do you think the massive industrial base that
propelled us thru the 20th cent. is still intact? Everyone is
locked into thinking that if it worked for 90 years, it should
work 90 more. The FED's interest rate ammo is gone. Our
debt load is staggering and yet congress continues to dole out
the pork. It's truly fiscal insanity. Politics has nothing to do
with fixing the economy. The only goal right now is to get our
economy in one piece to November 4th 2004 to re-elect Bush.
They do not care what happens after. That's a diff war to fight.
6. Buffet got rich with stocks and took advantage of the stock
juggernaut. But he's run out of suitable investments. He's
been investing in silver (120 mill ounces) and foreign currencies.
I have no doubt gold is in his mix but he's mum on that subject.
It's Buffet who has called the now 170 trillion dollar derivative
market "financial sewage." This stuff didn't even exist 30 years
ago. Now global finances are intricately linked together on
a house of cards with non-performing contracts.
7. Gold serves no purpose? It does now because the world (and
Buffet) no longer has the faith it once did in our dollar. On the
contrary, gold has now become currency again for the first time
since 1980. The gold lease game is what kept gold out of the
limelight for 20 years. The leasing game is close to losing its
grip on the gold market. The Asians are now driving the
market.
roadrunner
I tried that logic with gold stocks once. I was delighted to get out with a small profit; I'm
too jittery to keep my cool with the volatility of gold stocks. (But I wish I had bought some
12 months ago!!)
I just wish that gold would fall to about $320 so I can scoop up a few more common date
gold pieces for my type set. Then it can do whatever it wants!
roadrunner
roadrunner
Everytime I hear that said on T.V. I want to puke.
Alan Greenspan has his head so far up Bush's azz I am suprised he can still breath
<< <i>I don't know where this there is no inflation crap comes from. My monthly bills have increased over the past year. My food,electricity,gas and heating oil bills are all more expensive now than a year ago for the same amount used.
Everytime I hear that said on T.V. I want to puke.
Alan Greenspan has his head so far up Bush's azz I am suprised he can still breath
You can say that again! I just hope the Bush team stays in office, so the blame will be placed on the right people when we see the Depression that dwarfs the one of the 30s!
Someone above mentioned the impact of gold purchases in the Orient on world gold prices. Apparently a new dinar is coming out that is expected to increase access to gold in the Muslim world. China reportedly has opened up availability of gold and there is a pent up demand that far exceeds that in West. Reports from the last FUN sale were that lots of U.S.collectible gold was being bought up by Janpanese interests. These are interesting economic times and the days of the Western banks being able to mimic the Diamond Cartels in manipulating precious metal prices could be numbered.
<< <i>You can say that again! I just hope the Bush team stays in office, so the blame will be placed on the right people when we see the Depression that dwarfs the one of the 30s! >>
We all know where the blame for the economy belongs, you can't squirm out of this one.
We started this century under the Clinton recession and got sucker punched by Islam. Had Billy Jeff not been derelict in his duty, that wouldn't have happened.
8 Years of the criminal Clinton administration did more damage than we can work our way out of in just a few years. We will be feeling the results of that man's failures for another decade.
Bill Clinton, a man forever tinted, tainted and stained by a blue dress and the horrors of 9-11.
A man so flawed he was spared the ultimate justice, an impeachment conviction as the President of the United States, by the shear weight and magnitude of evidence of his corruption and incompetence being such that those in the US Senate felt the American public could not handle the full truth.
Corrupt to the very end, he sold Presidential pardons and then copped a plea to Federal prosecutors to avoid future indictments in exchange for a fine and disbarment in the last 30 minutes of his Presidency.
I, too, hope the current administration stays in office, it's not safe enough yet to vote for Democrats.
John Marnard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920, page 235ff
<< <i>
<< <i>You can say that again! I just hope the Bush team stays in office, so the blame will be placed on the right people when we see the Depression that dwarfs the one of the 30s! >>
We all know where the blame for the economy belongs, you can't squirm out of this one.
We started this century under the Clinton recession and got sucker punched by Islam. Had Billy Jeff not been derelict in his duty, that wouldn't have happened.
8 Years of the criminal Clinton administration did more damage than we can work our way out of in just a few years. We will be feeling the results of that man's failures for another decade.
Bill Clinton, a man forever tinted, tainted and stained by a blue dress and the horrors of 9-11.
A man so flawed he was spared the ultimate justice, an impeachment conviction as the President of the United States, by the shear weight and magnitude of evidence of his corruption and incompetence being such that those in the US Senate felt the American public could not handle the full truth.
Corrupt to the very end, he sold Presidential pardons and then copped a plea to Federal prosecutors to avoid future indictments in exchange for a fine and disbarment in the last 30 minutes of his Presidency.
I, too, hope the current administration stays in office, it's not safe enough yet to vote for Democrats. >>
I suppose this is what took us from a big surplus to a HUGE(but not as big as it will be) deficit? Get real!
With regard to the economic analysis, I would only point out, as I have in the past, that the evolution of the American and global economies over the next several decades will depend on a large number of complex and difficult to model factors. As has been pointed out, with some validity, there are big risks, and these risks could lead to a crisis of confidence in the dollar and the global economy. This is not, however, in any way predestined, and it is possible to look at current circumstances and, using cogent reasoning come up with an entirely different conclusion.
The US economy (going back well into Colonial days) has weathered several crises, but has a remarkable track record over more than 300 years.
In the long run, history has proven, and will prove again, that anyone who bets against the US economy loses.
<< <i>Hey, you guys should get some sleep, the conversation is degenerating. >>
That's when it gets fun! Let's leave the Presidents out of it. As if they have anything to do with gold prices.
As the goldog I have only 1 thing to add to all of this:
TIME TO GO FIND SOME GOLD! At these prices I might make back my gas money.
Live Long and Prospect.
we're pulling out of or he aspects of it which will remain for decades yet. Congress
spent this money at the behest of Republican and Democratic voters alike. We need
to blame them and ourselves for the mess that really started back in the 1930's.
So long a we are so eager to vote our pocketbooks there is unlikely to be a great
deal of improvement in the underlying problems. Until we and our leaders take real
responsibility for our actions there will be little real change.
Still it is unwise to bet too heavily against the American economy and the people.
While gold can make tremendous advances over short periods, it is impossible for
it to sustain its gains indefinitely. Buying gold to protect oneself against economic
calamity is probably a waste. While gold would have substantial value as the world
began recovering from such conditions only things which satisfied basic human needs
would be of value initially. Buy stocks and bonds for investment, buy gold as an in-
flation hedge, buy canned goods for a collapse, and buy coins because they're a hoot.
This being said it should be noted that stocks as a whole are unlikely to return a strong
return for some years. While the bottom of the market is in, there will only be some
specific stocks which do well over the next three or four years. The dollars fall is not
over and the run-up in gold will continue until the central banks can arrest it.
Wallstreetman,
If you believe your words, and are not just spouting garbage, you'll immediately take your money and SHORT the US stock markets ---- the tech-heavy Nasdaq in particular.
See, a SHORT is an investment that rises in value when the market declines. There are several indices within the US stock market, and it is really quite simple to SHORT them through Exchange Traded Funds (aka ETF's). If you've never traded stocks or ETF's with a broker, then you can purchase mutual funds that SHORT the market, also.
Of particular interest to you would be Profunds UltraShort fund, because it rises twice the amount of market losses.
When your depression is in full swing, imagine being the richest man in town with Profunds UltraShort!!!!!!!!!
Money talks and BS walks. Put your money on the table at -2x the US markets if a depression is coming.