Patterns in the Heritage Sale

gemtone65 · November 9, 2003 12:34AM

At first glance it appears that, for the most part, patterns in the Heritage sale went very cheaply, especially in comparison to published prices from the recent Stack's sale. Do you agree with this observation? And, if so, was there that much difference in overall quality of offerings? Or, do the results suggest something important about Stack's quality of bidders its having an active live bidding competition, in comparison to Heritage having many internet bidders who have not viewed the items in person and an auction venue that has far fewer live bidders?

(For those with a bent towards humor, please restrain yourselves from commenting about a distinction bewteen "live" and "unlive" bidders.)

Lakesammman · November 9, 2003 12:46AM

For the small cents, I thought the prices were very strong considering the "quality".

Rick....Andy - what are your thought regarding the other patterns??

boiler78 · November 9, 2003 2:15AM

I agree with Lakes. The small cent patterns brought very high prices considering the quality. On the other hand I was able to buy this lot well below my max bid.

The fact that the sale was not held in conjunction with a major show also impacted the prices realized particularly for the more common material. IMO

Myriads · November 9, 2003 3:39AM

While not being an expert on the patern market (Heck I just learned about it a few weeks ago) I have spent a good amount of time in those few weeks researching the sell prices for the various Five Cent patterns that I find attractive from past auctions (most specifically Judd-561 and J-1771).

Let's look at the 561 that sold last night. It closed for $3910 It was a Proof63

A Pr64 went for $3565 this summer, and a Pr66 went for $3680 in the summer of '99. Now I can say the market has heated up since the summer of '99 and write off that one. But the other... Looks like a strong price to me.

One sees the same deal with the J-1771 at PR63 it went for $2300, last summer a PR64 went for $2760, and in early '01 another PR63 went for $1610. Things look good here again to me the layman.

Sorry if my opinion is uninformed. I'm new to looking at this area of the hobby, and I'm basing my opinions on the info which I can see. If I'm off base, I'm sure someoen here will educate me :-)

Myriads

Lakesammman · November 9, 2003 3:39AM

Boiler:

Congrats - nice looking pattern. Do you see a price differential developing for red patterns like there is for red small cents?? If there is a registry, will red be worth 2 points more??

mdwoods · November 9, 2003 3:40AM

My word!! That copper dollar is fantastic. Great catch.

JoyofCollecting · November 9, 2003 6:03AM

I'm not very knowledgeable on the patterns market. But as I was going through the "After Auction Bargain Bin" on the Heritage site, I noticed that over 50 patterns did not sale and were in the "Bargain Bin."

Just incidentally, it also appeared that a large portion of the the very high-grade, silver type did not sell well and is in the bargain bin. However, it appears that almost all the good old collector coins (AU50 to MS64) in the older silver type sold at strong prices.

boiler78 · November 9, 2003 8:12AM

Joyofcollecting- If 50+ patterns failed to sell in the Heritage auction that means that 200+ did! Not too bad. Sometimes having too many patterns in the same auction can depress the prices. Lakes- I haven't noticed a big price increase for red vs red brown patterns although there probably should be.

It would be interesting to see the percentage of PCGS/NGC copper patterns graded in full red.

kranky · November 9, 2003 10:48AM

boiler78, very nice looking coin!

gemtone65 · November 9, 2003 10:57AM

Boiler 78: Great looking coin. This is precisely what I was talking about. You figuratively stole that coin. I think it would have brought at least double in the Stack's sale. If I were the consignor I'd be royally P.O'ed. Something is askew if this coin can sell for under $8k.

In answer to your question, PCGS has graded about 3000 copper patterns. Approximately 200 are graded red. Curiously, a single year, 1879, accounts for about 40 of them.

Placid · November 9, 2003 10:59AM

Whoever The New Milleniun collection is seems they are selling out. I saw a lot of slabs with that name this auction.

boiler78 · November 9, 2003 11:16AM

gemtone- Thanks for the quick analysis. I would have guessed 10% to be red but its more like 7%.
I was happy with the purchase of the 1004 but disappointed that I missed lot #11187 by a mere $100. Kinda funny when the bid increment should have been $250 but I've been a floor bidder enough times to know how that happens

I attended the Stacks sale and I thought the more generic patterns brought modest prices while the higher profile silver (big four) and gold patterns brought very strong money.

I think the venue and lack of real headliner coins (eg. Bickford ten in gold) had a negative impact on the Heritage prices realized.

gemtone65 · November 9, 2003 11:47AM

Boiler78: as you know (but other readers don't), Lot 11187 was J.1147 in 64RB. Coincidentally, one of the patterns I own is also J.1147. It is graded by PCGS as 65RD -- tied with 2 others for finest known in grade.

RKKay · November 10, 2003 1:24AM

Sorry, but I just got back late last night from my son's baseball tournament. 1st Place.

I bid on about 40 patterns on the phone. They were, for the most part, IMHO, the only really nice coins in the pattern section (save a handful of others). I starred about ten as spectacular. I won ten (two of my starred items), several of which a bit higher than I had wanted to go. All the others went significantly higher than my limits. I looked at the post-auction offerings this morning, and made an offer on one. Only one of the others was on my list, but it was too high.

I haven't had a chance to review many prices beyond my list, as I was busy at the tournament, but I feel the results support Andy's previous statement that the cream of the crop remains on fire, and the rest, in many cases, can be had for reasonable prices.

MrEureka · November 10, 2003 3:30AM

Overall, I thought the Heritage patterns sold at market, i.e., they were strong. Still, with 260 coins offered, there were some deals to be had. As for the Heritage vs. Stacks question, Heritage is much better positioned to market quantities of slabbed patterns to a wider audience. The Heritage advantage is less pronounced when it comes to raw coins and smaller quantities. The reasons should be obvious.

LAWMAN · November 10, 2003 3:50AM

I LOVE the strike on that thing. It's like 3D!

boiler78 · November 10, 2003 4:00AM

LAWMAN- If you want to see 3d check out this coin that I just received from Rick Kay

Thanks Rick!

RKKay · November 10, 2003 4:07AM

Ah...schucks!

oreville · November 10, 2003 4:49AM

On my Judd-1755 which I consigned to the Heritage sale I had placed a reserve of $18,000 plus the commission. Frankly, I was not expecting for it to sell.

I really did not want it to sell but I wanted to "test" the market and see what it was worth. It got bid up to $17,000 plus the juice. The reserve placed the price at $17,500 plus the 15%, one step below my reserve.

Considering I paid $14K and change only 17 months ago asking $20,700 which is over a 40% increase from what I paid to acquire the pattern just a short time ago is too much and too fast. 20-25% increases per annum is more than enough!

I privately admitted to Legend that I did not think the pattern was worth more than $17K PERIOD.

It is a former PCGS PR65 from the early 1990's that must have gotten crossed/cracked to NGC around the 1998 time frame.

It does have some nice cameo look to it but it does not have the brilliancy and flash of my earlier 1870's aluminum patterns.

gemtone65 · November 10, 2003 7:11AM

I've seen numerous examples where a pattern coin graded properly by PCGS is resubmitted to NGC and the coin gets upgraded, like this J.1755 did from PCGS65 to NGC66, and even instances where a coin goes from PCGS65 to PCGS66. What's amazing to me isn't so much that this happens, although that is troubling enough, but that pattern collectors are apparently willing to pay more, perhaps significantly more, for the same coin. I mean, the coin's appearance hasn't changed, there is only one graded at PR65 or better anyway, so why in the world would anyone pay more for a given such coin simply because it says NGC66 (or PCGS66) instead of PCGS65? It's still PR65 quality regardless of what the grading gods at the services say it is.

I realize you could make the same argument about any graded coin. But, when a coin is very rare, and there are few if any substitutes at any grade, it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me to pay more simply for the holder.

Recognize that I'm not saying that higher quality isn't worth more, perhaps much more. But if I have a chance to purchase a cheaper lower graded pattern Judd number with more eye appeal than higher graded more expensive one, the choice for me would be quite easy.

oreville · November 10, 2003 7:29AM

gemtone: I take a sort of different approach although I essentially agree with you.

When a pattern is finest known....I find it comical that upgrading it from a PCGS PR65 to a NGC PR66, makes it any more desireable when there are only 2 others known!

I would have preferred it in the older PCGS holder!

MrEureka · November 10, 2003 9:00AM

What's amazing to me isn't so much that this happens, although that is troubling enough, but that pattern collectors are apparently willing to pay more, perhaps significantly more, for the same coin.

Gemtone - Give me a break! Pattern buyers pay lower premiums for upgrades than collectors of MOST other series.

gemtone65 · November 10, 2003 11:08AM

Andy: You're undoubtedly correct. At least that shows some sense of reason on the part of pattern colectors. I must have had a momentary flashback to my own expeience. In the 1995 ANA sale, Heritage sold many of my pattern coins, all graded by PCGS, and all reviewed by Jim Halpern for upgrade potential. He selected one piece for possible upgrade, but it did not at that time. Since then, I have noted recent offerings of several of my former patterns, and many including the one he picked out back then have indeed been upgraded, along with their prices. For example, I sold J.1142 in PCGS63RD for around $5k. This summer, that very same coin appeared in one of the ANA related auctions in a PR64RD holder. The sale price was $13k. Ouch!

One day, though, perhaps I'll get my "revenge." I decided to keep a few pattern coins dated 1871 in my collection -- mostly the major silver pop 1 pieces, including at least one on your want list, which is the only one graded. It's straight from the Garrett collection.

roadrunner · November 10, 2003 11:16AM

I don't think you can fault Jim Halperin for grading changes that have taken place in the market from 1994 to the present. There has been a MAJOR adjustment to the upside, especially for flashy and brilliant pieces. The real fault lies with you and me, and others like us, for not holding on to our solidly graded/PQ coins a little longer.
A high % of solid and PQ coins from the 1987-1995 era have upgraded, especially in the last 3 years.

roadrunner

boiler78 · November 10, 2003 11:19AM

roadrunner- Ain't it the truth! I am just happy I still have a few left.

gemtone65 · November 10, 2003 1:49PM

Roadrunner: I wasn't faulting Jim Halperin, I was just stating the facts. Indeed, I thought my coins were properly graded back then, and still do today despite what it now says on the holder.

As for not keeping them longer, all I can say is I started collecting patterns from the Gilhousen sale in 1972, and ended with the Garrett sale in 1979. In between I purchased pieces from some top collections, including 3 from River Oaks. So, I held on to them for
16-23 years, which can hardly be called a quick turnover. And yet, in large part because of grading firm inconsistencies, some shrewd players were able to make far more profits in a very short time frame as a result of simply getting an upgrade from the grading services than I was able to earn over a much longer from holding on to the same coins and getting them graded just once. Without getting into too much detail, suffice it to say that I think this scenario, obviously played out many times elsewhere, is one of the dirty little "secrets" of the coin market that you're not likely to read about in the numismatic press.

oreville · November 10, 2003 2:30PM

gemtone65: But nearly no one had more long term satisfaction from the pride of ownership of these patterns than you and that is the goal all collectors should aspire to. There is no one I admire more than those who are in the hobby and keeping a collection as long as you!! That is another little secret of the coin hobby but it is hardly dirty!

Just hang in there just a little longer and you will be even more handsomely rewarded!!

wondercoin · November 10, 2003 3:24PM

All I want to know is who spent nearly $20,000 for a J-416? I wanted that pattern nickel for my collection. But, at that level, I'll buy (2) of Boiler's specials. Maybe it is time for me to sell my pattern nickel collection

Wondercoin

gemtone65 · November 10, 2003 10:57PM

Oreville: thanks for the kind remarks. But, along with the numismatic thrill of owning those great coins for 2 decades, it would have been nice to eat into some of those crack-out dealers' profits. You can be sure that the next time my remaining patterns go up for sale, I won't make the same mistake again. It's just a shame that so much is spent on plastic rather than rare coins -- one half billion dollars by my count since ADA -- after David Hall.

oreville · November 11, 2003 4:32AM

gemtones: I understand. But it could have been worse. We could have had all the grading services be more like ACG or a la Enron.

So what thrilling silver patterns do you have left?

flaminio · November 11, 2003 4:37AM

Does it bug anyone else that "millennium" is misspelled on that slab?

oreville · November 11, 2003 5:14AM

That red face is for the fact that I just realized that I did not know how to spell it right either!

boiler78 · November 11, 2003 5:34AM

Doesn't bother me. I plan to have it reholdered without the provenance. IMO there are very few "pedigrees" worthy of noting among them are Eliasberg, Garrett, Norweb and Bass.

Lakesammman · November 11, 2003 6:25AM

Boiler:

I think the Boiler78 and Lakesammman pattern pedigrees are .....oh well, never mind

boiler78 · November 11, 2003 6:34AM

Lakes- If PCGS can't spell millennium correctly how will they ever get Lakesammmmmmmman ?

MrEureka · November 11, 2003 6:35AM

IMO there are very few "pedigrees" worthy of noting among them are Eliasberg, Garrett, Norweb and Bass.

I disagree!

Even if we're just talking about patterns, I'd add the following to the list: Woodin, Farouk, Wilkison, and Lustig. The list would get longer if I took more than eight seconds to think about it.

boiler78 · November 11, 2003 6:50AM

Andy- I wasn't trying to come up with a comprehensive list. You can add Judd, Lohr, Champa, and Diebello to the list along with your additions but the coin butcher of Cairo? Come on! Farouk ruined too many coins to be mentioned in the same breath with the likes of Woodin, Wilkinson and Lustig.

oreville · November 11, 2003 7:23AM

Wouldn't it be easier just to put the Woodlin name on most of the patterns?

gemtone65 · November 11, 2003 7:30AM

For pedigree, I'd be impressed with pattern coins from Newlin, Frossard, and much more recently, Sieck. In fact, I'd say that in terms of rarity and quality, Rudy Sieck's patterns possibly represent one of the most, if not the most notable such collection sold in the last 30 years aside from Garrett.

Patterns in the Heritage Sale

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