Patterns are having a wild ride!

MrEureka · October 26, 2003 12:34AM

Don't get me wrong. I still love patterns and think that they're overall great value, but some recent auction prices have been pretty wild.

Here's an example. About three years ago, this example of J-1418 brought something like 5K at a Teletrade sale. (That's from memory. Can anyone provide the exact sale price?) In July of 2003, the same specimen brought 23K at an ANR auction. There are only 3-4 specimens known, so it's not hard to justify the new price level. Then again, it was only 5K not too long ago.

This story is not atypical. The rarest patterns are having a wild ride!

mgoodm3 · October 26, 2003 12:46AM

I'm waiting for TDN to chime in that he owns this coin, probably the finest known.

Lakesammman · October 26, 2003 12:47AM

Wow....if you want to pay the same multiple of my cost, you can have all of mine!

MrEureka · October 26, 2003 12:50AM

Wow....if you want to pay the same multiple of my cost, you can have all of mine!

Tim - Thanks for this anecdotal evidence of elastic supply!

wondercoin · October 26, 2003 1:21AM

Andy, why do you suppose the new pattern book shows the last sale of this coin as having occured in 1988? Wouldn't the Teletade price have been appropriate to include in the new book?

Wondercoin

MrEureka · October 26, 2003 1:23AM

Wouldn't the Teletade price have been appropriate to include in the new book?

I'm sure it was just an oversight.

RKKay · October 26, 2003 2:06AM

Wild is a relative term. Patterns have certainly "skyrocketed" in price relative to just three years ago. However, in relation to an 1864 SM 2c piece, 1867 w/ rays nickel, 1913 V nickel or 1933 double eagle, a unique pattern dollar (J-765 in PR 65Cam) for $33.5k or an R8 (two known) aluminum IHC in PR 65 for $28k, or even a unique copper V nickel pattern (J-1718 in PR 65RD) are absolute steals.

Pushkin · October 26, 2003 2:15AM

I agree, patterns are really hot right now. So are some errors. I've seen off-center Indian Head cents that were averaging $150 a year ago go for $500 and more lately. When you're hot ... well, you know.

MrEureka · October 26, 2003 2:17AM

However, in relation to an 1864 SM 2c piece, 1867 w/ rays nickel, 1913 V nickel or 1933 double eagle, a unique pattern dollar (J-765 in PR 65Cam) for $33.5k or an R8 (two known) aluminum IHC in PR 65 for $28k, or even a unique copper V nickel pattern (J-1718 in PR 65RD) are absolute steals.

Rick - Spoken like a true coin dealer!

RKKay · October 26, 2003 2:37AM

Thank you, Andy. I guess I've done what many people thought I never could do: successfully make the transition from collector to dealer.

RKKay · October 26, 2003 2:57AM

Oops! What I meant to say was...

Coinosaurus · October 26, 2003 3:24AM

I was seriously thinking about getting into patterns and dropping some $$ at the Heritage NY sale (which has an awesome pattern collection for those who haven't seen it). After reading this thread, though, I am going to take a LONG step back and make sure I know what I am doing........if these coins really have gone up 2x-3x across the board the last couple years, this may not be best thing to do right now........

wondercoin · October 26, 2003 3:37AM

Trime: Point well taken. As a collector of patterns (myself), if you do not give yourself long-term hold time horizons, you might be disappointed if you needed to sell quickly and often it is difficult to measure how much (or how little) your coins have increased in value, as they are, to some extent, close to "unique" for the grade/quality, etc.

What I can say is IMHO that even in the "wild ride", I personally see them more as a diversification to a well balanced coin collection than "the greatest thing out there to put your money into". Heck, FOR THE AVERAGE COLLECTOR WITH SAY $10,000 TO SPEND ON COINS IN A YEAR, modern MS clad dimes have probably "blown away" the perrformance of patterns over the past year or two (as silly as that sounds), not to mention high grade Lincoln wheat cents. For example, I placed (2) high grade wheat cents for a total of less than $20,000/pair a couple years ago that today would conservatively trade around $140,000. Talk about a "wild ride"

But, again, as a diversification to a well balanced coin collection, I LOVE the patterns as well.

Wondercoin

RKKay · October 26, 2003 3:50AM

While I feel patterns are still undervalued, I think it would be a mistake to buy them, or moderns for that matter, as an investment. Coin collecting should be undertaken with disposable income, and for enjoyment, not with the intent to make a killing.

wondercoin · October 26, 2003 4:11AM

"While I feel patterns are still undervalued, I think it would be a mistake to buy them, or moderns for that matter, as an investment. Coin collecting should be undertaken with disposable income, and for enjoyment, not with the intent to make a killing."

100% agreed to.

Wondercoin

Baley · October 26, 2003 4:27AM

Now only if No Motto coinage would do the same....

I believe all pre-Civil War US coinage is undervalued in Fine and better condition.

MrEureka · October 26, 2003 4:32AM

if these coins really have gone up 2x-3x across the board the last couple years, this may not be best thing to do right now

The coins that have gone doubled or better are, for the most part, high R7 and R8 patterns. My best guess is that everything else is up an average of 35-40% in the past two years.

IMHO, there are still plenty of great opportunities. You just have to be a little more careful than before. As with any big purchase, do some research first.

MrEureka · October 26, 2003 5:42AM

This is a nice example of J-1315, one of the rejected designs for the new "Trade Dollar" denomination. My best guess is that 100 pieces were struck. A PR-63 will run about $4,000, a real gem closer to 10K. Two years ago, before pattern mania and with the overall coin market nowhere near as hot as now, the coin was only 20-25% cheaper. Where else can you buy such a big, neat, historical and rare US coin for so little money?

That's why I'm bullish on patterns.

Pushkin · October 26, 2003 5:46AM

Mr. Eureka,

Beautiful coin!!!

gemtone65 · October 26, 2003 5:57AM

If the registry set craze can push a common date cent to the tens of thousands of dollars, what do you think would happen if the registry were opened to Patterns?

Lakesammman · October 26, 2003 6:01AM

Gemtone - it's my understanding that it's being worked on. "Sets" like the 1858 small cents would be a natural.

MrEureka · October 26, 2003 6:02AM

If the registry set craze can push a common date cent to the tens of thousands of dollars, what do you think would happen if the registry were opened to Patterns?

In the long run, it won't matter. Ultimately, there will be registry sets for everything. As more registry sets are created, there will be fewer silly prices. The big egos won't all be locked up together in the same room anymore.

Of course, doesn't mean I won't play the game when the time comes.

gemtone65 · October 26, 2003 6:15AM

Andy: I understand what you mean, however, for vastly a undervalued series such as patterns, it will indeed matter.

MrEureka · October 26, 2003 6:52AM

for vastly a undervalued series such as patterns, it will indeed matter.

For a while, no doubt.

wondercoin · October 26, 2003 7:12AM

"However, I do feel, that Patterns will make better LONG TERM buys than MOST modern coins in high grades (FLAME TIME)."

IMHO, that sounds fair. Hard work and dedication leads one to locate the potential "cream" modern coins to tuck away (and the % of "cream" is small I believe). Same is true for patterns though as well. As Andy points out, the big move up over the past several years in patterns has been for the R7 and R8 coins. The R1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and most 6 coins just have not enjoyed the same kind of move.

Then, even within the R7 and R8, certain coins have performed FAR better than others. Even within a specialized series like "patterns nickels", which I am collecting, there are coin types within the type that are "hot" and coin types that are not "hot". The one coin I bought (a high R6, but a good example of what I am talking about) in the recent Stacks sale for my pattern nickel collection (my other bids were too low in this "hot" market but probably would have been fine as bids earlier this year) was a coronet type pattern nickel. No surprise as they appear to be "not hot" right now. An R-7 coronet type pattern might only cost 1/2 the price of an R-7 Liberty pattern nickel (both patterns might have had only 6 or so coins struck, but one is 2x the other). So, is the coronet the "great buy" right now at half price for same rarity, or the one to avoid? If you make most of the right choses, you can possibly do quite well.

Wondercoin

P.S. And, then there is the "$64k" question - do you buy quantity or quality? If you had $100k to buy patterns, do you buy (10) super high grade pieces or (20) lower grade pieces. Again, answer all these questions correctly - and your chance of doing well in the pattern market goes way up! Go the "wrong way" and perhaps you don't do nearly as well. "You can't win if you don't play"

MrEureka · October 27, 2003 12:17AM

do you buy quantity or quality?

Presently, quality is dramatically undervalued. 67's usually trade for less than twice the price of a 65.

wondercoin · October 27, 2003 12:45AM

"Presently, quality is dramatically undervalued. 67's usually trade for less than twice the price of a 65."

Thus far, I built my collection around this notion. It is also very useful to avoid constantly having to buy upgrade coins, especially with the patterns that seldom have significant "pop" changes.

On the other hand, I know of at least -1- major pattern dealer who believes it may be just as neat to try to build a collection of AS MANY DIFFERENT patterns as one can buy with far less focus on "pop top" pieces. This strategy would certainly not have been effective with respect to 20th century regular issue coins the past couple years, but, with patterns you are dealing with absolute rarity, even in "one or two grade under" specimens.

Wondercoin

gemtone65 · October 27, 2003 3:11AM

Quality rules, of course. But, to a greater extent than for most series, grade is much less important than strict eye appeal in determining the desirability and hence value of a pattern. There are some very attractive PR64's, and some drab PR65's. You'll rarely hear someone say, as they might in another series, "I only collect PR65 or better Indian seated patterns." Since there only a handful of pieces of a certain Judd number available over, say, each decade, you may never have an opportunity to acquire a PR65 of the particular Judd number you want, or, when such a piece comes along, you might not find it attractive. Therefore, I would say that passing on an eye appealing PR64 at a reasonable price for an R7 item of interest could be a big mistake. In short, if your thresold is PR65 for type coins or Morgan dollars, you probably are well advised to modify that level to PR64 for patterns.

Lakesammman · October 27, 2003 4:48AM

Gemtone: Agree - my highest graded patterns are some of the least attractive ones I have. With some of the rarer varieties, I'm lucky to have any specimen!

oreville · November 20, 2007 7:28AM

Look here!!!

Laura of Legend Numismatics was honest enough to tell it all in 2003!!

In October 2003, Laura laid it right on the table and stated her intention that she was backing up her recommendation that patterns were a good buy.

She does not BS!!!

<< <i> Andy,
I was the underbidder on that coin. I bid strong for no other reason than I wanted it. I had left a bid. Had I been there, it would have gone for a little more.

I felt the coin was drop dead gorgeous, had extreme rarity, and had to be worth a ton being the finest known in an "off" metal. Back to the pathetic line of today: look what the "common" Modern stufff is bringing. So shouldn't an almost perfect coin from 128 years ago be worth more? I thjink so!

IMHO a coin like that SHOULD be worth $25,000.00. You could offer $100,000.00 and probably will NEVER find an identical piece fromt hat date (or any other for that matter).

I also felt it was one of the BEST copper patterns I had ever seen (and I'm no expert in Patterns).

Lately, I've started buying Patterns I like that make sense. Why shouldn't I buy patterns that are 10x rarer than the regular issue proofs, yet are available for a fraction of what the regular coins sell for? I'm in! To me, theres no wild ride. Its just Patterns catching up to where they should be. Now only if No Motto coinage would do the same.... >>

Lakesammman · November 20, 2007 7:51AM

Oreville:

Not sure what you mean. She was the broker of the recent deal, not the seller.

MrEureka · November 20, 2007 8:32AM

I guess the wild ride isn't over!

MrEureka · January 13, 2008 12:04PM

Wow....if you want to pay the same multiple of my cost, you can have all of mine!

Tim - Does your offer still stand?

Lakesammman · January 13, 2008 12:11PM

Andy:

Your coupon expired 1-1-04.

JZrarities · January 13, 2008 1:12PM

<< <i>I was the underbidder on that coin. I bid strong for no other reason than I wanted it. I had left a bid. Had I been there, it would have gone for a little more....I felt the coin was drop dead gorgeous, had extreme rarity, and had to be worth a ton being the finest known in an "off" metal....I also felt it was one of the BEST copper patterns I had ever seen (and I'm no expert in Patterns). >>

Which Pattern was Laura talkin about?

VintageJeff · January 13, 2008 1:19PM

roadrunner · January 13, 2008 1:50PM

In October 2003, Laura laid it right on the table and stated her intention that she was backing up her recommendation that patterns were a good buy.

We all make calls, we'll be right on some of them and wrong on others. The market doesn't always reward what is undervalued, especially in order of those things most deserving. Patterns have been a perennial favorite for most undervalued for decades. Maybe this is the final equalizer as early circ bust material recently went through.

roadrunner

Patterns are having a wild ride!

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