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Patterns are having a wild ride!
MrEureka
Posts: 24,002 ✭✭✭✭✭
Don't get me wrong. I still love patterns and think that they're overall great value, but some recent auction prices have been pretty wild.
Here's an example. About three years ago, this example of J-1418 brought something like 5K at a Teletrade sale. (That's from memory. Can anyone provide the exact sale price?) In July of 2003, the same specimen brought 23K at an ANR auction. There are only 3-4 specimens known, so it's not hard to justify the new price level. Then again, it was only 5K not too long ago.
This story is not atypical. The rarest patterns are having a wild ride!
Here's an example. About three years ago, this example of J-1418 brought something like 5K at a Teletrade sale. (That's from memory. Can anyone provide the exact sale price?) In July of 2003, the same specimen brought 23K at an ANR auction. There are only 3-4 specimens known, so it's not hard to justify the new price level. Then again, it was only 5K not too long ago.
This story is not atypical. The rarest patterns are having a wild ride!
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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Tim - Thanks for this anecdotal evidence of elastic supply!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Wondercoin
I'm sure it was just an oversight.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Specializing in 1854 and 1855 large FE patterns
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I agree, patterns are really hot right now. So are some errors. I've seen off-center Indian Head cents that were averaging $150 a year ago go for $500 and more lately. When you're hot ... well, you know.
Rick - Spoken like a true coin dealer!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Specializing in 1854 and 1855 large FE patterns
<
Specializing in 1854 and 1855 large FE patterns
<
What I can say is IMHO that even in the "wild ride", I personally see them more as a diversification to a well balanced coin collection than "the greatest thing out there to put your money into". Heck, FOR THE AVERAGE COLLECTOR WITH SAY $10,000 TO SPEND ON COINS IN A YEAR, modern MS clad dimes have probably "blown away" the perrformance of patterns over the past year or two (as silly as that sounds), not to mention high grade Lincoln wheat cents. For example, I placed (2) high grade wheat cents for a total of less than $20,000/pair a couple years ago that today would conservatively trade around $140,000. Talk about a "wild ride"
But, again, as a diversification to a well balanced coin collection, I LOVE the patterns as well.
Wondercoin
Specializing in 1854 and 1855 large FE patterns
<
100% agreed to.
Wondercoin
I believe all pre-Civil War US coinage is undervalued in Fine and better condition.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
The coins that have gone doubled or better are, for the most part, high R7 and R8 patterns. My best guess is that everything else is up an average of 35-40% in the past two years.
IMHO, there are still plenty of great opportunities. You just have to be a little more careful than before. As with any big purchase, do some research first.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
That's why I'm bullish on patterns.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Beautiful coin!!!
In the long run, it won't matter. Ultimately, there will be registry sets for everything. As more registry sets are created, there will be fewer silly prices. The big egos won't all be locked up together in the same room anymore.
Of course, doesn't mean I won't play the game when the time comes.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
For a while, no doubt.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
IMHO, that sounds fair. Hard work and dedication leads one to locate the potential "cream" modern coins to tuck away (and the % of "cream" is small I believe). Same is true for patterns though as well. As Andy points out, the big move up over the past several years in patterns has been for the R7 and R8 coins. The R1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and most 6 coins just have not enjoyed the same kind of move.
Then, even within the R7 and R8, certain coins have performed FAR better than others. Even within a specialized series like "patterns nickels", which I am collecting, there are coin types within the type that are "hot" and coin types that are not "hot". The one coin I bought (a high R6, but a good example of what I am talking about) in the recent Stacks sale for my pattern nickel collection (my other bids were too low in this "hot" market but probably would have been fine as bids earlier this year) was a coronet type pattern nickel. No surprise as they appear to be "not hot" right now. An R-7 coronet type pattern might only cost 1/2 the price of an R-7 Liberty pattern nickel (both patterns might have had only 6 or so coins struck, but one is 2x the other). So, is the coronet the "great buy" right now at half price for same rarity, or the one to avoid? If you make most of the right choses, you can possibly do quite well.
Wondercoin
P.S. And, then there is the "$64k" question - do you buy quantity or quality? If you had $100k to buy patterns, do you buy (10) super high grade pieces or (20) lower grade pieces. Again, answer all these questions correctly - and your chance of doing well in the pattern market goes way up! Go the "wrong way" and perhaps you don't do nearly as well. "You can't win if you don't play"
Presently, quality is dramatically undervalued. 67's usually trade for less than twice the price of a 65.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Thus far, I built my collection around this notion. It is also very useful to avoid constantly having to buy upgrade coins, especially with the patterns that seldom have significant "pop" changes.
On the other hand, I know of at least -1- major pattern dealer who believes it may be just as neat to try to build a collection of AS MANY DIFFERENT patterns as one can buy with far less focus on "pop top" pieces. This strategy would certainly not have been effective with respect to 20th century regular issue coins the past couple years, but, with patterns you are dealing with absolute rarity, even in "one or two grade under" specimens.
Wondercoin
Laura of Legend Numismatics was honest enough to tell it all in 2003!!
In October 2003, Laura laid it right on the table and stated her intention that she was backing up her recommendation that patterns were a good buy.
She does not BS!!!
<< <i> Andy,
I was the underbidder on that coin. I bid strong for no other reason than I wanted it. I had left a bid. Had I been there, it would have gone for a little more.
I felt the coin was drop dead gorgeous, had extreme rarity, and had to be worth a ton being the finest known in an "off" metal. Back to the pathetic line of today: look what the "common" Modern stufff is bringing. So shouldn't an almost perfect coin from 128 years ago be worth more? I thjink so!
IMHO a coin like that SHOULD be worth $25,000.00. You could offer $100,000.00 and probably will NEVER find an identical piece fromt hat date (or any other for that matter).
I also felt it was one of the BEST copper patterns I had ever seen (and I'm no expert in Patterns).
Lately, I've started buying Patterns I like that make sense. Why shouldn't I buy patterns that are 10x rarer than the regular issue proofs, yet are available for a fraction of what the regular coins sell for? I'm in! To me, theres no wild ride. Its just Patterns catching up to where they should be. Now only if No Motto coinage would do the same.... >>
Not sure what you mean. She was the broker of the recent deal, not the seller.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Tim - Does your offer still stand?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Your coupon expired 1-1-04.
<< <i>I was the underbidder on that coin. I bid strong for no other reason than I wanted it. I had left a bid. Had I been there, it would have gone for a little more....I felt the coin was drop dead gorgeous, had extreme rarity, and had to be worth a ton being the finest known in an "off" metal....I also felt it was one of the BEST copper patterns I had ever seen (and I'm no expert in Patterns). >>
Which Pattern was Laura talkin about?
Minnie Minoso Master and Basic
1967 Topps PSA 8+
1960's Topps run Mega Set
"For me, playing baseball has been like a war and I was defending the uniform I wore, Every time I put on the uniform I respected it like the American flag. I wore it like I was representing every Latin country."--Minnie Minoso
We all make calls, we'll be right on some of them and wrong on others. The market doesn't always reward what is undervalued, especially in order of those things most deserving. Patterns have been a perennial favorite for most undervalued for decades. Maybe this is the final equalizer as early circ bust material recently went through.
roadrunner