You hit on something very important here. Pop top Lincolns that are selling for $5,000 or even $22,000 are often times readily available in the undergrade for 1/25 or even 1/100++ of the pop top price. For example, that 1953(p) Lincoln cent in PCGS-MS67RD which is already around $6,000 in the Long Beach Heritage sale is available for around $250-$300 in a NICE quality MS66RD holder. That 1940(p) for roughly $20,000 is roughly a $200 coin for a nice example. WHAT A GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AVERAGE COLLECTOR TO BUILD A GREAT HIGH END COLLECTION OF COINS AT 1/50 THE PRICE OF THE NEXT GRADE UP!!! $2000 for a 1958(p) Lincoln in MS67RD - OK, but a lovely MS66RD cost around $20. IMHO, there is a sensational opportunity to build superb gem Lincoln collections at roughly 1/25 the price of the next grade up. Even more fun when the "PQ" undergrade examples upgrade down the road.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>Do you know that you could build a complete set of Lincolns cents (without die varieties) in 64 RED for about the same amount of money that it would take to upgrade a 1940 cent for 67 RED to 68 RED? >>
How much is the lot of work that you mention worth? I'm a buyer for as many of those sets as you want to assemble...no low quality junk though.
<< <i>Most collectors like variety, and they don't want to have too much money tied up in one thing. If you they do spend a lot one item, usually it is very rare or unsual piece, which has something more going for it than just great preservation. At least that has been my approach.... >>
I would agree with this statement to an extent...but I also think that the collecting style of the average collector is becoming far more quality focused in recent times. If I'm looking for a dealer to work with I want someone who shares the same numismatic values as I do...an extension of that statement is that if you have a particular set of values as a dealer you will tend to do most of your business with collectors who share those values. I'm not saying that you made this statement based solely on your direct experience...but I think that your experience may be biased and not be a good barometer of the actual current marketplace.
RELLA
Do not fall into the error of the artisan who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft while in fact he has had only one year of experience... twenty times.
Rella, Thank you for your most interesting and enlightening post.
While you, Gerry, Stewart and other Lincoln specialists may have developed the expert eyes to differentiate the various small graduations along the MS67 to 68 bump, I am not so sure the PCGS graders possess the consistency to make that difference work at 150x.
With grading like this who is to say that the next 68 that becomes made may in reality be a coin that you consider to be only a low end 67. Sure you may not want it and you guys will certainly know enough to avoid it, but it will most assuredly throw off this level of incremental pricing structure. Grading [and I am not slamming PCGS here] just doesn't seem cut and dry enough to support the enormous price differential.
Edited for spelling. Should install Bulldogs spellcheck.
No offense to you or your refined palate and I don't play in the major league of $22,000 coins but the differences between an accurately graded 67 and an accurately graded 68 are minute. That's true whether you're talking about State Quarters, Ike Dollars or Lincoln Cents. By definition if they are "subtle differences" they are miniscule in nature and the vast differences in the prices paid by some for these coins is placing an incredible amount of focus on those very minor differences.
Should those minute differences account for 99% of the value of the coin? In my book no but to each his own.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
RELLA, no disrespect intended but I think you are totally full of crap!! I will bet every coin in my collection that the very best graders in the world cannot CONSISTENTLY distinguish between the 5 grades of MS67 to 68 that you described in your post. It is just not possible. Ask Dave Schweitz or Bill Shamhart if they can consistently tell the difference between a 67 and 68 in the lincoln series in 5 different gradations and you might be surprised at the answer. TomT.
TomT-1794
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
Or, better yet, ask Stewart Blay or Gerry if they can consistently distinguish five different gradations between 67 and 68 in the Lincoln Cent series. I would love to hear from either of them on this subject.
TomT-1794
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
I am glad the submitter of this coin did well when pcgs slabbed it as a 68, I am glad the new owner like his coin and doesn't care what any body else thinks.
But I challange anyone to dispute the fact that grading is an art and not a science or we wouldn't have the crackout game. Someone in a previous thread came up with an idea that sounds like a good one to me [but I won't do it cause I don't have the money] to try sending in the same coin to any of the major grading companies, and when you get it back crack it out and submit it again [maybe a number of times] and see if you always get the same grade ?
How many stories have we heard about crackouts getting body bagged or on the other hand 1 or 2 point bumps?
Pay whatever you want to for your coins, but don't assume because you have the highest grade on your slab that you have the best coin of the date even of the lower graded coins. It isn't always true.
Les
The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
<< <i>don't assume because you have the highest grade on your slab that you have the best coin of the date >>
True, but you probably would have the most expensive coin of the date!
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
Kranky, that was exactly my point but I was tryng to be diplomatic/polite about it.
Les
The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
No offense to you or your refined palate and I don't play in the major league of $22,000 coins but the differences between an accurately graded 67 and an accurately graded 68 are minute. That's true whether you're talking about State Quarters, Ike Dollars or Lincoln Cents. By definition if they are "subtle differences" they are miniscule in nature and the vast differences in the prices paid by some for these coins is placing an incredible amount of focus on those very minor differences.
Minute maybe, but discernable - yes. Some place a high priority on those little quality differences. So it has been, so it will always be.
Should those minute differences account for 99% of the value of the coin? In my book no but to each his own.
I don't think so, either. I'd have a tough time paying more than double or triple the undergrade for the next grade up. But....
Maybe a better way to understand is to think of it in hours of work. Collector A really likes his MS67 Red whatever. He likes it so much that he was willing to spend 40 hours worth of work over an MS66 Red to acquire the coin. Collector B really liked the MS68 Red and was also willing to spend 40 hours worth of work over the MS67 Red to acquire that top pop coin. Collector B makes 20 times as much as Collector A. In relative terms, they valued the upgrade the same - are they really so different other than their financial circumstances?
Query: Will this kind of pricing of pop 1 conis put upward pressure on the price of the next lower grade, or are 67s too plentiful to be promoted that way?
Are they really so different ? TDN, If I were a multi millionair [spelling?] I'd rather have the most eye appealing coin in any series and if that coin cost me less because it wasn't a "top of pop" coin, so much the better. Look at alot of the Icon coins around this place, many of them have outstanding eye appeal, but are no where near top of pop coins.
Hey if somweone wants to collect what they perceive to be the best and pay 100 x more then the next grade level lower let them enjoy their coins, but it's not my cup of tea and wouldn't be if I made more dough then anyone here.
Les
The President claims he didn't lie about taxes for those earning less then $250,000 a year with public mandated health insurance yet his own justice department has said they will use the right of the government to tax when the states appeals go to court.
<< <i>Query: Will this kind of pricing of pop 1 conis put upward pressure on the price of the next lower grade, or are 67s too plentiful to be promoted that way?
CG >>
I often wonder the same thing. I've reached the unscientific conclusion that it actually hurts the price of the next lower grade, as they keep getting cracked out and resubmitted hoping for the next grade up, driving up the pop numbers artificially.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
Hey if somweone wants to collect what they perceive to be the best and pay 100 x more then the next grade level lower let them enjoy their coins, but it's not my cup of tea and wouldn't be if I made more dough then anyone here.
I understand what you are saying, but let's take an MS64 state quarter for example. Most consider that pocket change - worth a quarter. But there are plenty of people who might pay $25 for a nice, eye appealing certified MS65. So they just paid 100x more for the next grade level [please don't flame me if I have no actual idea what an MS65 state quarter is worth - it's not my cup of tea]. In fact, they might not even hesitate to do so!
the market will always dictate if the value is there..if 2x or 200x the grade lower...its worth what someone is willing to pay..its amazing to me that someone would pay to certify some of the modern stuff but they do ..its worth it to em..some folks feel its ok to spend multiples for that next grade up..and some are content with that lower grade coin..the market will always dictate the price/value. bruce scher
"RELLA, no disrespect intended but I think you are totally full of crap!! I will bet every coin in my collection that the very best graders in the world cannot CONSISTENTLY distinguish between the 5 grades of MS67 to 68 that you described in your post. It is just not possible. Ask Dave Schweitz or Bill Shamhart if they can consistently tell the difference between a 67 and 68 in the lincoln series in 5 different gradations and you might be surprised at the answer. TomT."
Big Moose: Based upon your comment, I assume your position is that the grading companies themselves can not even do what RELLA suggests - hence, it is foolish for RELLA to try to do so (or think others are doing so)? And, if your view is even the grading companies can not tell the difference between 5 grades of MS67/68, I can appreciate where you are coming from with the general comment to RELLA. BUT, that said, I think you know that there are many skilled graders out there that can grade Lincolns MS67RD, MS67.25RD, MS67.5RD, MS67.75RD and MS68RD and bid huge sums of money based upon their confidence in their accuracy to the 1/4 point. Indeed, not only do I do this myself on a regular basis in pursuing high value silver Washington quarters at auction (my personal favorite 20th century "classic" collection), but, also try to do it to the 1/10 of a point resulting in 11 grades between MS67 and MS68. This is also very common among specialists in a series - I just bought a rare variety quarter at auction that I had graded MS65.35 (i.e. great coin for the grade with about a 1/3 chance to upgrade), Dave Schweitz had graded MS65.25 (i.e. great coin for the grade with a 1/4 chance to upgrade) and Bob Z had graded MS65.3 (i.e. great coin for the grade with a 30% chance to upgrade). Obviously, this is being done with Lincolns at auction as well and I suspect RELLA has enjoyed watching a couple of the top Lincoln dealers in the country explain to him why Lincolns grade what they do (down to the 1/4 point) and why the coins commanded certain levels at auction. RELLA was certainly not bragging that he is a world class Lincoln cent grader - but, if he keeps at it for another 5-10 years no doubt he is on the right track
Wondercoin
P.S. An individual's perception of "range" on a coin can certainly change by 1/4-1/2 point over time based upon a variety of factors, including, but, not limited to, the spread on the coin between grades, how much money is in your checking account at the time of the analysis of the coin, ones general mood swings and subsequent results at the grading services.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Wondercoin, you are correct in assuming that my entire point was that the grading companies( and I am talking PCGS here ) CANNOT CONSISTENTLY differentiate five or six different grades of MS67 to 68 in the lincoln cent series, or any other series for that matter. And I believe sincerely that PCGS is by far the best, most conservative and most consistent company out there. Dave Schweitz and Bill Shamhart are good friends who have some of the best eyes in the business. To grade something as a 67.35 is one thing, and to believe that you can distinguish 11 different grades of 67 by a tenth of a point consistently is another thing, but the real proof of this grading prowess is TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE to verify. Not so long ago, one of my two friends mentioned above with world class grading eyes went something like 0 for 120 at the services with upgrade candidates. Now, he didn't suddenly go blind or lose his touch. Rather, I suspect that most coins that get upgrades do so on the basis of whether or not the services are tighter or looser at any given point in time, or whether certain graders are present at the show or not, and not because someone thinks a coin is a 67.4 rather than a 67.3. I think we all give the grading service graders far too much credit at times as I sincerely do not believe they can consistently differentiate 5 or 6 subgrades of 67, and I believe that they don't really try to to this. Now, if you are going to tell me that you truly believe that you can consistently differentiate 11 subgrades of MS67 for a series, then you are a far, far better man than I.
TomT-1794
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
I consider myself a world class Lincoln cent grader.I use to pick off or pay for more Lincoln cents than all the other guys put together.But as of lately if I grade a coin 65.8 or even 65.9 and the coin will be a 66 with a pop 1,PCGS will probably not give the grade away.In my humble opinion to get a pop 1 ms 66 Lincoln cent the coin will have to grade a minimum of 66.25. In the future it may even get more difficult.What if someone throws some acetone on the coin to bring out the luster.Under a glass it can be detected by an expert.But if the coin slips through and turns in the holder because the submitter forgot to wash the coin properly.....PCGS in in real deep pop poo How much more expensive can Lincoln cents become in price.Does Gerry have competition?Are we talking tulip bulbs?
Maybe a better way to understand is to think of it in hours of work. Collector A really likes his MS67 Red whatever. He likes it so much that he was willing to spend 40 hours worth of work over an MS66 Red to acquire the coin. Collector B really liked the MS68 Red and was also willing to spend 40 hours worth of work over the MS67 Red to acquire that top pop coin. Collector B makes 20 times as much as Collector A. In relative terms, they valued the upgrade the same - are they really so different other than their financial circumstances?
TDN - This is joke, right? Please tell me you're kidding.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
"Now, if you are going to tell me that you truly believe that you can consistently differentiate 11 subgrades of MS67 for a series, then you are a far, far better man than I."
Big Moose- All of your points are very well taken. When I was a single man the college boys thought they could rank "ladies" on the same 10 point (1-10) scale. You know what I mean - you meet a great lady and you immediately conclude she's a "10". Then the make up comes off (kind of like a "bad dip") and she starts talking and you change you opinion to a "9" or "8" or "7". Same is true for grading these coins - you grade it and then learn why your grade was "right on" or way off. Ask the very best graders out there - if you're not make a lot of mistakes, you're not buying enough coins
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I do not understand how you can say that a coin has a 30% shot at upgrading one point. In theory if a coin is that far removed from being a higher grade it should have zero percent chance of upgrading unless the grading service errs. Of course there are liners that one could fairly say "could go either way" but a coin with only a 30% chance should be too far removed from that criteria to ever upgrade in the absense of error.
Now all of this is normative analysis and assumes that grading is based on some normative/objective standard and "liners" are only those coins that are too close to call for most sets of grading eyes. Sort of like calling balls and strikes--did that ball nick the black or was it off the plate? But if a pitch is going tol be called a ball 70% of the time its because its off the plate--its is not a strike and SHOULD never be called a strike (zero percent chance) unles the ump blows the call. So isn't your fractional grading really predicting blown calls by the grading company?
"But as of lately if I grade a coin 65.8 or even 65.9"
Stewart: I also think of you as a world class Lincoln cent grader and you have confirmed the notion of being able to grade not only to within 5 levels of MS67/68, but 11, as I previously mentioned (and RELLA alluded to).
IMHO, you have known for a long time that there are (2) different markets for these Lincolns - perhaps easily described as the "sane" and the "insane" markets
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
"So isn't your fractional grading really predicting blown calls by the grading company?"
Calgold- First, you can plainly see from Stewart last reply (and reference to 65.8 and 65.9 coins) that it is not "my" fractional grading - it is very common in the industry. Second, "liner" coins are just that - coins that can go one way or the other from day to day. Hence, by definition, either side of that line is not a "blown call". Do you agree? Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
A further thought to the Wondercoin grading theory. If coin has a 30% chance of upgrading from a 66 to 67, it means that 70% of the time an expert grader would say it belongs is a 66 holde. If it does make it into a 67 holder, what would you pay for it in relation to the fair market price of a 67? In otherwords, wouldn't it be true that 70% of the time that a knowledgeable buyer (soemone who does not pay for the grade on the holder) examined the coiin they would say "that's overgraded" and would offer only 66 money for it despite the holder?
CG
Edited to add: I agree that a true liner would be one that would not really be blown call. The batter would not argue the umps call on that one. But further to the pricing question, there may be a large number of prospective buyers who will reject it at the full high grade price.
So isn't your fractional grading really predicting blown calls by the grading company?
No. I agree with Mitch.
From the perspective of a professional numismatist and former PCGS grader, a grade has to be off by at least a full point to even consider calling the grade a "blown call". From the perspective of a philosophy major - not me, thank goodness - there cannot possibly be such a thing as a "blown call".
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
"Stewart: I also think of you as a world class Lincoln cent grader and you have confirmed the notion of being able to grade not only to within 5 levels of MS67/68, but 11, as I previously mentioned (and RELLA alluded to)."
Whether or not the best graders in the world can consistently tell the difference is debatable. But even if you accept that they can tell the difference on a consistent basis it's still a matter of differentiating the coins based on minute, miniscule or very subtle differences. The debate about whether or not they can is a reflection of just how minute those differences are.
Again, should 99% of the value of a coin be tied to the minor differences that differentiate these grades? There is no right or wrong answer to that question but in my opinion if the answer is yes it's putting a tremendous amount of weight on a small fraction of one dimension of the coin's overall characteristics.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
"Again, should 99% of the value of a coin be tied to the minor differences that differentiate these grades?"
I agree this is a very difficult question. In the case of the 1940(p) Lincoln, the "spread" between grades is roughly 100x. What frankly attracted me to the pattern nickels I started collecting last year was the tiny difference between grades those coins of true absolute rarity possess. For example, a gem PR65 pattern might cost $5,000 and a finest known PR66 might cost say $7500. A 3/2 ratio, as compared to the 100/1 Lincoln cent. Of couse, since that 1940 Lincoln cent was roughly a $5,000 coin a couple years ago (had it been graded then), who am I to argue against a coin that has skyrocketed 400% in a couple years? But, as Stewart opined - is there an end to the Lincoln prices?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Again, should 99% of the value of a coin be tied to the minor differences that differentiate these grades? There is no right or wrong answer to that question but in my opinion if the answer is yes it's putting a tremendous amount of weight on a small fraction of one dimension of the coin's overall characteristics. >>
This is really much more the question, "Sould anyone even be collecting high grade moderns". A 1940 Lincoln is not rare in Fine condition. Hence it can be acquired very cheaply. It is not very uncommon in MS-65 either so again is has a low price. Even in MS-67 the few dozen pieces are sufficient to keep the price dowm to a few percent of the price of the MS-68.
In time it is likely you'll see substantially higher demand for the MS-67 and even extending down much lower even perhaps to the choice unc coins. But even if this demand never materializes for MS-63 or MS-66 1940 cents it has for the MS-68.
Did you ever imagine three years ago that an MS-67 would go for more than $100, or for that matter any 1940 cent?
This 1940 Lincoln cent was sold privately as Gerry informed us.If it was sold at auction "What would be the final price"?
As Mitch spoke of the sane vs the insane there has to be at least 100 1940 Lincoln cents graded ms 67 red ...but only one 68 red
The most expensive Lincoln cent sold to date is the 1943 d which brought over $200,000.And that coin did not generate as much attention as this 1940 in ms 68 red.Real vs unreal.....rare vs common
<< <i>as Stewart opined - is there an end to the Lincoln prices? >>
Probably - >>
Interesting link but the fact remains that there are virtually NO PARALLELS to a bubble market for ANY coins now and this is especially true for moderns.
-These are not being "sold in taverns" or even generally available. -This "speculative fever" has barely touched the more common coins. -Large percentages of the population are not caught up in "growing", buying, or selling any moderns, indeed, it's all most can do to avoid comparing them to dot coms, junk, or common tulip bulbs. -The markets for these coins has been relatively orderly for something which is soaring in price. -Manias typically push the values of things which already had substantial value through the roof. Most moderns including all MS 1940 cents had virtually NO VALUE in 1995. -Despite the ability of some to see hype and promotion for these everywhere there is virtually none. There have been NO REPORTS of it despite repeated requests to share examples of it.
Consider too, that if one were decide to promote, collect, improve, or invest in any collectible, market or endeavor that one would choose something of real value. One can hardly start a tulipmania over tulip mulch or tulip fertilizer. It's the same with coins. If there were some grand conspiracy to push a coin onto a gullible populace one wouldn't pick cull indian cents or VF 1940 cents. These coins are remarkably common and have nominal value. Eveen huge amounts of buying and promotion would have almost no effect on their price. It would result in a warehouse full of coins which would cost more than their acquisition price to disperse. Yet the MS-68 1940 cent was worth no more in real terms just a few years ago. Yes there were a handful of collectors who were scouring bags and rolls trying to find superior examples, but finding these buyers would have been impossible for most. No coin shop would have offered more than a dollar or two for it at the time. Does this seem like the kind of market of which dreams are made? If one were to intentionally make a market in something he'd choose something that had an established base and could be acquired in numbers. Coins like XF buffalos or unc mercs could be promoted after being acquired cheaply. There are few enough around that large numbers of people could not all get one and the price would be pushed far higher if they tried.
So just who profits by a $20,000 '40 cent? This is a single coin and it's largely this way for most valuable moderns. Other than the rarities it's just a few of the best of each coin. These were almost IMPOSSIBLE to obtain back before they increased in value. A few people were looking but NO ONE was selling. The grading companies wouldn't grade them and dealers wouldn't stock them. This hardly sounds like any bubble market in history. This is a grassroots change in the coin market that is likely to get larger and larger as time goes on. It can not change into a bubble market unless large numbers of people become involved and it will not change to a bubble market unless fun is forgotten and greed comes to the fore.
I question whether these types of occurrences should be considered "a market." I think there is a very small segment of the collector base that is in the market for these types of coins and trying to draw broad based conclusions about the market in general from the sale of these types of coins is difficult and the conclusions suspect.
How stable is the market for these types of coins? Hard to say. Debating the future market is shear speculation although I guess you can draw some "harder" conclusions regarding coins with more of a history like early U.S. gold and silver. But what isn't debatable is where the focus is when a 100X premium paid is paid for a one or even two point difference in grade, especially in the very high MS grades we've been discussing.
If my numismatic "palate" gets so sensitive that a couple of almost microscope blemishes accounts for 99% of a coins value it will be time for me to take a little vacation from the hobby .
Wondercoin
""Again, should 99% of the value of a coin be tied to the minor differences that differentiate these grades?"
"I agree this is a very difficult question."
No it's not .
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
<< <i>I question whether these types of occurrences should be considered "a market." I think there is a very small segment of the collector base that is in the market for these types of coins and trying to draw broad based conclusions about the market in general from the sale of these types of coins is difficult and the conclusions suspect. >>
Moderns are also being bought up in the low grades by large numbers of people. This is not so apparent because the supply is still higher than the demand, but these coins are being very actively collected.
<< <i> How stable is the market for these types of coins? Hard to say. Debating the future market is shear speculation although I guess you can draw some "harder" conclusions regarding coins with more of a history like early U.S. gold and silver. >>
The market for US coins has only been stable in the past because the collector population for them has been stable. Never before has the average age of this population even approached the number it's at currently. The only way that this "steady state" can be maintained is for a HUGE influx of new and younger coll- ectors.
<< <i> But what isn't debatable is where the focus is when a 100X premium paid is paid for a one or even two point difference in grade, especially in the very high MS grades we've been discussing. >>
Agreed. The focus is obviously on obtaining the best.
<< <i> If my numismatic "palate" gets so sensitive that a couple of almost microscope blemishes accounts for 99% of a coins value it will be time for me to take a little vacation from the hobby . >>
One of the greatest strenghts of the hobby is the ability to please a wide array of people regardless of their tastes and interests. There are hundreds of specialties from amusement tokens to ancient gold.
To quote John J. Ford Jr. from his interview with Heritage in the early 1990s because I think it may apply here-- "If I was really in the coin business today and a guy came to me and said he wanted to buy a Monroe Doctrine half dollar for $30,000.00 in Mint State 67, I'd say "What are you doing tomorrow afternoon? I want to have you fitted for a straightjacket." I can think of so much you can buy for $30,000.00 in numismatics that's a better investment, a better piece of history, and appeals more to the intelligence."
TomT-1794
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
"Moderns are also being bought up in the low grades by large numbers of people. This is not so apparent because the supply is still higher than the demand, but these coins are being very actively collected."
As far as the Lincoln in quesiton is concerned I don't think the issue is really about moderns versus classics. It's more about one point grade rarity premiums and the things I've mentioned regarding the mentality involved in paying 100x premiums aren't limited to modern coins.
"Agreed. The focus is obviously on obtaining the best."
I disagree. The focus is the registry set or some other numbers game because that's the only place the miniscule differences in the coins in question can potentially have any major affect.
There is nothing wrong with wanting the best. But when what separates "the best" from second best or the third best are the miniscule differences between accurately graded 67's and 68's or 68's and 69's it still comes down to paying huge premiums for minute, near microscopic differences in the coin. Is this coin substantially "better" then the next coin below it in grade. By definition of the grading criteria the answer is no, unless you want to make a mountain out of the miniscule differences.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
Speaking of tulip bulbs, are there any readers of The Economist out there? Does anyone remember reading an article about five (?) years ago about a study on tulipmania? Essentially, the study concluded that the tulip bulb buyers were behaving rationally. As I recall, the study found that it pays to ride a trend, however ridiculous it seems. So, please folks, let's not make too much fun of the 22K 1940 cents and the 30K Monroes.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I disagree. The focus is the registry set or some other numbers game because that's the only place the miniscule differences in the coins in question can potentially have any major affect.
Go back a few pages. This coin and many other high grade coins are bought for reasons other than registry sets. -And what is wrong with a registry set?
There is nothing wrong with wanting the best. But when what separates "the best" from second best or the third best are the miniscule differences between accurately graded 67's and 68's or 68's and 69's it still comes down to paying huge premiums for minute, near microscopic differences in the coin. Is this coin substantially "better" then the next coin below it in grade. By definition of the grading criteria the answer is no, unless you want to make a mountain out of the miniscule differences. >>
Again this is your opinion that these differences are miniscule. Were you to point out that this is an opinion then newbies wouldn't be left to think that all grading is meaningless.
While you say that one grade point is small, I must believe even you can compare to coins which are much closer than a single grade point and say "This one is better".
And, yes, this is my opinion, but so is my contention that a gem is better than a XF.
If one were to compare 100 coins in MS-68 and 100 coins in MS-67 most people would find that 90% of the MS-68's were better than all of the MS-67's. Each collector making these comparisons would choose a different 90%. So what? This is a hobby and we have chosen to grade the way we do. It's only natural that there would be different opinions on what constitutes "small" differences in grades.
One will find that as the people making these comparisons learn more about what coins can and do look like there is increasing agreement on what constitutes the 90%. When there is total agreement these people are sought to work for the grading services.
<< <i> Again this is your opinion that these differences are miniscule. Were you to point out that this is an opinion then newbies wouldn't be left to think that all grading is meaningless. >>
Have to disagree, cladking. In reality the difference between 67 and 68 is miniscule. Now it so happens grading has evolved from the Unc-BU-Select BU-Gem BU scale to the 60-63-65-67 scale and now to the 60 through 70 one-point scale. It may even further evolve to half-point or quarter-point grading in order to help support huge price differences between grades.
I'm not saying it's wrong. And it may very well be true that a virtual handful of people, after years of study, are able to precisely and accurately grade the "90%" the same way. In fact, I think that proves the point that the differences are miniscule!
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
"Have to disagree, cladking. In reality the difference between 67 and 68 is miniscule"
The difference between being pregnant and not pregnant is even far more "miniscule". Sometimes "miniscule" differences translate into huge and important opportunities. Doesn't this question really turn on everyones individual philosophy?
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
The difference between being pregnant and not pregnant is even far more "miniscule". Sometimes "miniscule" differences translate into huge and important opportunities. Doesn't this question really turn on everyones individual philosophy?
>>
Indeed, this can be the difference of only a few hours and a bottle of good wine.
Yet in the long term it still makes all the difference in the world.
<< <i>The difference between being pregnant and not pregnant is even far more "miniscule". >>
Pregnant vs. not pregnant isn't open to interpretation - it's one or the other, and can be determined scientifically. I think an accurate analogy would be to look at a rainbow and try to point out where "red" ends and "orange" begins. Most people could agree that a small area could be bracketed and the division point would be in that area - but if a specific line is drawn, not everyone would agree that the line is in the right place.
<< <i>Sometimes "miniscule" differences translate into huge and important opportunities. Doesn't this question really turn on everyones individual philosophy? >>
Clearly you are correct about the opportunities, as the market is proof of that. But I think individual philosophy would address the topic of the relative value of such differences, not the fact that the differences are indeed tiny.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
Let's say hypothetically that the only reason to buy low pop, top pop coins is for registry position. In that case a 1940 1c in MS68 would have more value than a 1940 in MS67. How much more value depends on how much the money players value the extra registry credit. Future return will depend on how much the money people want the extra registry credit in the future. Such demand would raise, lower, or leave unchanged the value of the coin.
Knowing the buyer, my guess is that it was a very screwd investment. People like Jerry frankly see things that the rest of us miss. There simply is no smarter buyer out there (maybe a few as smart . While you may think the registry is a fad, you don't know that. It might have a lot further to run then any of us think.
My guess is that he bought it cheap!!! For those of you smart guys who still don't believe it, how many do you have to sell? If you are so smart, why didn't you buy a bunch of low pop moderns a few years ago. If you missed it then, why should anyone think you are correct now?
"Again this is your opinion that these differences are miniscule."
It's not my opinion it's by definition as far as every grading standards guide I've every read (ANA, PCGS, Photograde, etc.). The dealers of these coins want to hype those miniscule (by definition) differences to make them appear significant. You trumpet the phrase "the best" as if there is some sizable difference between coins in those grades. Focus, focus, focus, focus on the miniscule.
Again, to each his own but when it comes down a situation where 99% a coin's value rest on a mark 1/4 of the size of the period at the end of this sentence (or two or three marks), it's an indication to me of a very out of balance perspective on the minutia of the hobby whether it's the registry set competition or not.
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
I believe I've read all the grading guides and don't recall ever seeing the terms miniscule, minutae, insignificant or any of their synonyms.
Grades have evolved not because they are the least difference which can be spot- ted but because they are handy for collectors. If you don't care about what you con- sider insignificant differences then you would do well to not collect any coins that might be influenced by them. But there are those who do care about the differences and they don't look so miniscule to them.
Comments
You hit on something very important here. Pop top Lincolns that are selling for $5,000 or even $22,000 are often times readily available in the undergrade for 1/25 or even 1/100++ of the pop top price. For example, that 1953(p) Lincoln cent in PCGS-MS67RD which is already around $6,000 in the Long Beach Heritage sale is available for around $250-$300 in a NICE quality MS66RD holder. That 1940(p) for roughly $20,000 is roughly a $200 coin for a nice example. WHAT A GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AVERAGE COLLECTOR TO BUILD A GREAT HIGH END COLLECTION OF COINS AT 1/50 THE PRICE OF THE NEXT GRADE UP!!! $2000 for a 1958(p) Lincoln in MS67RD - OK, but a lovely MS66RD cost around $20. IMHO, there is a sensational opportunity to build superb gem Lincoln collections at roughly 1/25 the price of the next grade up. Even more fun when the "PQ" undergrade examples upgrade down the road.
Wondercoin
<< <i>Do you know that you could build a complete set of Lincolns cents (without die varieties) in 64 RED for about the same amount of money that it would take to upgrade a 1940 cent for 67 RED to 68 RED? >>
How much is the lot of work that you mention worth? I'm a buyer for as many of those sets as you want to assemble...no low quality junk though.
<< <i>Most collectors like variety, and they don't want to have too much money tied up in one thing. If you they do spend a lot one item, usually it is very rare or unsual piece, which has something more going for it than just great preservation. At least that has been my approach.... >>
I would agree with this statement to an extent...but I also think that the collecting style of the average collector is becoming far more quality focused in recent times. If I'm looking for a dealer to work with I want someone who shares the same numismatic values as I do...an extension of that statement is that if you have a particular set of values as a dealer you will tend to do most of your business with collectors who share those values. I'm not saying that you made this statement based solely on your direct experience...but I think that your experience may be biased and not be a good barometer of the actual current marketplace.
RELLA
who boasts of twenty years experience in his craft
while in fact he has had only one year of experience...
twenty times.
Thanks for the offer. I'll have to pass, but I'm sure that some of the other dealers here would love to help you!
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
While you, Gerry, Stewart and other Lincoln specialists may have developed the expert eyes to differentiate the various small graduations along the MS67 to 68 bump, I am not so sure the PCGS graders possess the consistency to make that difference work at 150x.
With grading like this who is to say that the next 68 that becomes made may in reality be a coin that you consider to be only a low end 67. Sure you may not want it and you guys will certainly know enough to avoid it, but it will most assuredly throw off this level of incremental pricing structure. Grading [and I am not slamming PCGS here] just doesn't seem cut and dry enough to support the enormous price differential.
Edited for spelling. Should install Bulldogs spellcheck.
No offense to you or your refined palate and I don't play in the major league of $22,000 coins but the differences between an accurately graded 67 and an accurately graded 68 are minute. That's true whether you're talking about State Quarters, Ike Dollars or Lincoln Cents. By definition if they are "subtle differences" they are miniscule in nature and the vast differences in the prices paid by some for these coins is placing an incredible amount of focus on those very minor differences.
Should those minute differences account for 99% of the value of the coin? In my book no but to each his own.
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
But I challange anyone to dispute the fact that grading is an art and not a science or we wouldn't have the crackout game. Someone in a previous thread came up with an idea that sounds like a good one to me [but I won't do it cause I don't have the money] to try sending in the same coin to any of the major grading companies, and when you get it back crack it out and submit it again [maybe a number of times] and see if you always get the same grade ?
How many stories have we heard about crackouts getting body bagged or on the other hand 1 or 2 point bumps?
Pay whatever you want to for your coins, but don't assume because you have the highest grade on your slab that you have the best coin of the date even of the lower graded coins. It isn't always true.
Les
<< <i>don't assume because you have the highest grade on your slab that you have the best coin of the date >>
True, but you probably would have the most expensive coin of the date!
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
Les
Minute maybe, but discernable - yes. Some place a high priority on those little quality differences. So it has been, so it will always be.
Should those minute differences account for 99% of the value of the coin? In my book no but to each his own.
I don't think so, either. I'd have a tough time paying more than double or triple the undergrade for the next grade up. But....
Maybe a better way to understand is to think of it in hours of work. Collector A really likes his MS67 Red whatever. He likes it so much that he was willing to spend 40 hours worth of work over an MS66 Red to acquire the coin. Collector B really liked the MS68 Red and was also willing to spend 40 hours worth of work over the MS67 Red to acquire that top pop coin. Collector B makes 20 times as much as Collector A. In relative terms, they valued the upgrade the same - are they really so different other than their financial circumstances?
CG
Hey if somweone wants to collect what they perceive to be the best and pay 100 x more then the next grade level lower let them enjoy their coins, but it's not my cup of tea and wouldn't be if I made more dough then anyone here.
Les
<< <i>Query: Will this kind of pricing of pop 1 conis put upward pressure on the price of the next lower grade, or are 67s too plentiful to be promoted that way?
CG >>
I often wonder the same thing. I've reached the unscientific conclusion that it actually hurts the price of the next lower grade, as they keep getting cracked out and resubmitted hoping for the next grade up, driving up the pop numbers artificially.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
I understand what you are saying, but let's take an MS64 state quarter for example. Most consider that pocket change - worth a quarter. But there are plenty of people who might pay $25 for a nice, eye appealing certified MS65. So they just paid 100x more for the next grade level [please don't flame me if I have no actual idea what an MS65 state quarter is worth - it's not my cup of tea]. In fact, they might not even hesitate to do so!
Isn't it all relative?
bruce scher
Big Moose: Based upon your comment, I assume your position is that the grading companies themselves can not even do what RELLA suggests - hence, it is foolish for RELLA to try to do so (or think others are doing so)? And, if your view is even the grading companies can not tell the difference between 5 grades of MS67/68, I can appreciate where you are coming from with the general comment to RELLA. BUT, that said, I think you know that there are many skilled graders out there that can grade Lincolns MS67RD, MS67.25RD, MS67.5RD, MS67.75RD and MS68RD and bid huge sums of money based upon their confidence in their accuracy to the 1/4 point. Indeed, not only do I do this myself on a regular basis in pursuing high value silver Washington quarters at auction (my personal favorite 20th century "classic" collection), but, also try to do it to the 1/10 of a point resulting in 11 grades between MS67 and MS68. This is also very common among specialists in a series - I just bought a rare variety quarter at auction that I had graded MS65.35 (i.e. great coin for the grade with about a 1/3 chance to upgrade), Dave Schweitz had graded MS65.25 (i.e. great coin for the grade with a 1/4 chance to upgrade) and Bob Z had graded MS65.3 (i.e. great coin for the grade with a 30% chance to upgrade). Obviously, this is being done with Lincolns at auction as well and I suspect RELLA has enjoyed watching a couple of the top Lincoln dealers in the country explain to him why Lincolns grade what they do (down to the 1/4 point) and why the coins commanded certain levels at auction. RELLA was certainly not bragging that he is a world class Lincoln cent grader - but, if he keeps at it for another 5-10 years no doubt he is on the right track
Wondercoin
P.S. An individual's perception of "range" on a coin can certainly change by 1/4-1/2 point over time based upon a variety of factors, including, but, not limited to, the spread on the coin between grades, how much money is in your checking account at the time of the analysis of the coin, ones general mood swings and subsequent results at the grading services.
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
Mitch
I consider myself a world class Lincoln cent grader.I use to pick off or pay for more Lincoln cents than all the other guys put together.But as of lately if I grade a coin 65.8 or even 65.9 and the coin will be a 66 with a pop 1,PCGS will probably not give the grade away.In my humble opinion to get a pop 1 ms 66 Lincoln cent the coin will have to grade a minimum of 66.25.
In the future it may even get more difficult.What if someone throws some acetone on the coin to bring out the luster.Under a glass it can be detected by an expert.But if the coin slips through and turns in the holder because the submitter forgot to wash the coin properly.....PCGS in in real deep pop poo
How much more expensive can Lincoln cents become in price.Does Gerry have competition?Are we talking tulip bulbs?
stewart
TDN - This is joke, right? Please tell me you're kidding.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Big Moose- All of your points are very well taken. When I was a single man the college boys thought they could rank "ladies" on the same 10 point (1-10) scale. You know what I mean - you meet a great lady and you immediately conclude she's a "10". Then the make up comes off (kind of like a "bad dip") and she starts talking and you change you opinion to a "9" or "8" or "7". Same is true for grading these coins - you grade it and then learn why your grade was "right on" or way off. Ask the very best graders out there - if you're not make a lot of mistakes, you're not buying enough coins
Wondercoin
I do not understand how you can say that a coin has a 30% shot at upgrading one point. In theory if a coin is that far removed from being a higher grade it should have zero percent chance of upgrading unless the grading service errs. Of course there are liners that one could fairly say "could go either way" but a coin with only a 30% chance should be too far removed from that criteria to ever upgrade in the absense of error.
Now all of this is normative analysis and assumes that grading is based on some normative/objective standard and "liners" are only those coins that are too close to call for most sets of grading eyes. Sort of like calling balls and strikes--did that ball nick the black or was it off the plate? But if a pitch is going tol be called a ball 70% of the time its because its off the plate--its is not a strike and SHOULD never be called a strike (zero percent chance) unles the ump blows the call. So isn't your fractional grading really predicting blown calls by the grading company?
CG
Stewart: I also think of you as a world class Lincoln cent grader and you have confirmed the notion of being able to grade not only to within 5 levels of MS67/68, but 11, as I previously mentioned (and RELLA alluded to).
IMHO, you have known for a long time that there are (2) different markets for these Lincolns - perhaps easily described as the "sane" and the "insane" markets
Wondercoin
Calgold- First, you can plainly see from Stewart last reply (and reference to 65.8 and 65.9 coins) that it is not "my" fractional grading - it is very common in the industry. Second, "liner" coins are just that - coins that can go one way or the other from day to day. Hence, by definition, either side of that line is not a "blown call". Do you agree? Wondercoin
CG
Edited to add: I agree that a true liner would be one that would not really be blown call. The batter would not argue the umps call on that one. But further to the pricing question, there may be a large number of prospective buyers who will reject it at the full high grade price.
No. I agree with Mitch.
From the perspective of a professional numismatist and former PCGS grader, a grade has to be off by at least a full point to even consider calling the grade a "blown call". From the perspective of a philosophy major - not me, thank goodness - there cannot possibly be such a thing as a "blown call".
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Whether or not the best graders in the world can consistently tell the difference is debatable. But even if you accept that they can tell the difference on a consistent basis it's still a matter of differentiating the coins based on minute, miniscule or very subtle differences. The debate about whether or not they can is a reflection of just how minute those differences are.
Again, should 99% of the value of a coin be tied to the minor differences that differentiate these grades? There is no right or wrong answer to that question but in my opinion if the answer is yes it's putting a tremendous amount of weight on a small fraction of one dimension of the coin's overall characteristics.
I agree this is a very difficult question. In the case of the 1940(p) Lincoln, the "spread" between grades is roughly 100x. What frankly attracted me to the pattern nickels I started collecting last year was the tiny difference between grades those coins of true absolute rarity possess. For example, a gem PR65 pattern might cost $5,000 and a finest known PR66 might cost say $7500. A 3/2 ratio, as compared to the 100/1 Lincoln cent. Of couse, since that 1940 Lincoln cent was roughly a $5,000 coin a couple years ago (had it been graded then), who am I to argue against a coin that has skyrocketed 400% in a couple years? But, as Stewart opined - is there an end to the Lincoln prices?
Wondercoin
<< <i>
Again, should 99% of the value of a coin be tied to the minor differences that differentiate these grades? There is no right or wrong answer to that question but in my opinion if the answer is yes it's putting a tremendous amount of weight on a small fraction of one dimension of the coin's overall characteristics. >>
This is really much more the question, "Sould anyone even be collecting high grade moderns".
A 1940 Lincoln is not rare in Fine condition. Hence it can be acquired very cheaply. It is not
very uncommon in MS-65 either so again is has a low price. Even in MS-67 the few dozen pieces
are sufficient to keep the price dowm to a few percent of the price of the MS-68.
In time it is likely you'll see substantially higher demand for the MS-67 and even extending down
much lower even perhaps to the choice unc coins. But even if this demand never materializes for
MS-63 or MS-66 1940 cents it has for the MS-68.
Did you ever imagine three years ago that an MS-67 would go for more than $100, or for that
matter any 1940 cent?
This 1940 Lincoln cent was sold privately as Gerry informed us.If it was sold at auction "What would be the final price"?
As Mitch spoke of the sane vs the insane there has to be at least 100 1940 Lincoln cents graded ms 67 red ...but only one 68 red
The most expensive Lincoln cent sold to date is the 1943 d which brought over $200,000.And that coin did not generate as much attention as this 1940 in ms 68 red.Real vs unreal.....rare vs common
stewart
Bulldog
No good deed will go unpunished.
Free Money Search
<< <i>as Stewart opined - is there an end to the Lincoln prices? >>
Probably - Try this link if you want an historical answer
“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain
Newmismatist
<< <i>
<< <i>as Stewart opined - is there an end to the Lincoln prices? >>
Probably - >>
Interesting link but the fact remains that there are virtually NO PARALLELS to a bubble
market for ANY coins now and this is especially true for moderns.
-These are not being "sold in taverns" or even generally available.
-This "speculative fever" has barely touched the more common coins.
-Large percentages of the population are not caught up in "growing", buying, or selling any moderns, indeed, it's all most can do to avoid comparing them to dot coms, junk, or common tulip bulbs.
-The markets for these coins has been relatively orderly for something which is soaring in price.
-Manias typically push the values of things which already had substantial value through the roof. Most moderns including all MS 1940 cents had virtually NO VALUE in 1995.
-Despite the ability of some to see hype and promotion for these everywhere there is virtually none. There have been NO REPORTS of it despite repeated requests to share examples of it.
Consider too, that if one were decide to promote, collect, improve, or invest in any
collectible, market or endeavor that one would choose something of real value. One
can hardly start a tulipmania over tulip mulch or tulip fertilizer. It's the same with coins.
If there were some grand conspiracy to push a coin onto a gullible populace one wouldn't
pick cull indian cents or VF 1940 cents. These coins are remarkably common and have
nominal value. Eveen huge amounts of buying and promotion would have almost no effect
on their price. It would result in a warehouse full of coins which would cost more than
their acquisition price to disperse. Yet the MS-68 1940 cent was worth no more in real terms
just a few years ago. Yes there were a handful of collectors who were scouring bags and
rolls trying to find superior examples, but finding these buyers would have been impossible
for most. No coin shop would have offered more than a dollar or two for it at the time. Does
this seem like the kind of market of which dreams are made? If one were to intentionally
make a market in something he'd choose something that had an established base and could
be acquired in numbers. Coins like XF buffalos or unc mercs could be promoted after being
acquired cheaply. There are few enough around that large numbers of people could not all
get one and the price would be pushed far higher if they tried.
So just who profits by a $20,000 '40 cent? This is a single coin and it's largely this way for
most valuable moderns. Other than the rarities it's just a few of the best of each coin. These
were almost IMPOSSIBLE to obtain back before they increased in value. A few people were
looking but NO ONE was selling. The grading companies wouldn't grade them and dealers
wouldn't stock them. This hardly sounds like any bubble market in history. This is a grassroots
change in the coin market that is likely to get larger and larger as time goes on. It can not
change into a bubble market unless large numbers of people become involved and it will not
change to a bubble market unless fun is forgotten and greed comes to the fore.
How stable is the market for these types of coins? Hard to say. Debating the future market is shear speculation although I guess you can draw some "harder" conclusions regarding coins with more of a history like early U.S. gold and silver. But what isn't debatable is where the focus is when a 100X premium paid is paid for a one or even two point difference in grade, especially in the very high MS grades we've been discussing.
If my numismatic "palate" gets so sensitive that a couple of almost microscope blemishes accounts for 99% of a coins value it will be time for me to take a little vacation from the hobby
Wondercoin
""Again, should 99% of the value of a coin be tied to the minor differences that differentiate these grades?"
"I agree this is a very difficult question."
No it's not
<< <i>I question whether these types of occurrences should be considered "a market." I think there is a very small segment of the collector base that is in the market for these types of coins and trying to draw broad based conclusions about the market in general from the sale of these types of coins is difficult and the conclusions suspect. >>
Moderns are also being bought up in the low grades by large numbers of people.
This is not so apparent because the supply is still higher than the demand, but
these coins are being very actively collected.
<< <i>
How stable is the market for these types of coins? Hard to say. Debating the future market is shear speculation although I guess you can draw some "harder" conclusions regarding coins with more of a history like early U.S. gold and silver. >>
The market for US coins has only been stable in the past because the collector
population for them has been stable. Never before has the average age of this
population even approached the number it's at currently. The only way that this
"steady state" can be maintained is for a HUGE influx of new and younger coll-
ectors.
<< <i> But what isn't debatable is where the focus is when a 100X premium paid is paid for a one or even two point difference in grade, especially in the very high MS grades we've been discussing. >>
Agreed. The focus is obviously on obtaining the best.
<< <i>
If my numismatic "palate" gets so sensitive that a couple of almost microscope blemishes accounts for 99% of a coins value it will be time for me to take a little vacation from the hobby
One of the greatest strenghts of the hobby is the ability to please a wide array of
people regardless of their tastes and interests. There are hundreds of specialties
from amusement tokens to ancient gold.
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
"Moderns are also being bought up in the low grades by large numbers of people. This is not so apparent because the supply is still higher than the demand, but these coins are being very actively collected."
As far as the Lincoln in quesiton is concerned I don't think the issue is really about moderns versus classics. It's more about one point grade rarity premiums and the things I've mentioned regarding the mentality involved in paying 100x premiums aren't limited to modern coins.
"Agreed. The focus is obviously on obtaining the best."
I disagree. The focus is the registry set or some other numbers game because that's the only place the miniscule differences in the coins in question can potentially have any major affect.
There is nothing wrong with wanting the best. But when what separates "the best" from second best or the third best are the miniscule differences between accurately graded 67's and 68's or 68's and 69's it still comes down to paying huge premiums for minute, near microscopic differences in the coin. Is this coin substantially "better" then the next coin below it in grade. By definition of the grading criteria the answer is no, unless you want to make a mountain out of the miniscule differences.
Speaking of tulip bulbs, are there any readers of The Economist out there? Does anyone remember reading an article about five (?) years ago about a study on tulipmania? Essentially, the study concluded that the tulip bulb buyers were behaving rationally. As I recall, the study found that it pays to ride a trend, however ridiculous it seems. So, please folks, let's not make too much fun of the 22K 1940 cents and the 30K Monroes.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
<< <i>
I disagree. The focus is the registry set or some other numbers game because that's the only place the miniscule differences in the coins in question can potentially have any major affect.
Go back a few pages. This coin and many other high grade coins are bought
for reasons other than registry sets. -And what is wrong with a registry set?
There is nothing wrong with wanting the best. But when what separates "the best" from second best or the third best are the miniscule differences between accurately graded 67's and 68's or 68's and 69's it still comes down to paying huge premiums for minute, near microscopic differences in the coin. Is this coin substantially "better" then the next coin below it in grade. By definition of the grading criteria the answer is no, unless you want to make a mountain out of the miniscule differences. >>
Again this is your opinion that these differences are miniscule. Were you to point
out that this is an opinion then newbies wouldn't be left to think that all grading
is meaningless.
While you say that one grade point is small, I must believe even you can compare
to coins which are much closer than a single grade point and say "This one is better".
And, yes, this is my opinion, but so is my contention that a gem is better than a XF.
If one were to compare 100 coins in MS-68 and 100 coins in MS-67 most people would
find that 90% of the MS-68's were better than all of the MS-67's. Each collector making
these comparisons would choose a different 90%. So what? This is a hobby and we
have chosen to grade the way we do. It's only natural that there would be different
opinions on what constitutes "small" differences in grades.
One will find that as the people making these comparisons learn more about what coins
can and do look like there is increasing agreement on what constitutes the 90%. When
there is total agreement these people are sought to work for the grading services.
<< <i>
Again this is your opinion that these differences are miniscule. Were you to point
out that this is an opinion then newbies wouldn't be left to think that all grading
is meaningless. >>
Have to disagree, cladking. In reality the difference between 67 and 68 is miniscule. Now it so happens grading has evolved from the Unc-BU-Select BU-Gem BU scale to the 60-63-65-67 scale and now to the 60 through 70 one-point scale. It may even further evolve to half-point or quarter-point grading in order to help support huge price differences between grades.
I'm not saying it's wrong. And it may very well be true that a virtual handful of people, after years of study, are able to precisely and accurately grade the "90%" the same way. In fact, I think that proves the point that the differences are miniscule!
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
The difference between being pregnant and not pregnant is even far more "miniscule". Sometimes "miniscule" differences translate into huge and important opportunities. Doesn't this question really turn on everyones individual philosophy?
Wondercoin
<< <i>
The difference between being pregnant and not pregnant is even far more "miniscule". Sometimes "miniscule" differences translate into huge and important opportunities. Doesn't this question really turn on everyones individual philosophy?
>>
Indeed, this can be the difference of only a few hours and a bottle of good wine.
Yet in the long term it still makes all the difference in the world.
<< <i>The difference between being pregnant and not pregnant is even far more "miniscule". >>
Pregnant vs. not pregnant isn't open to interpretation - it's one or the other, and can be determined scientifically. I think an accurate analogy would be to look at a rainbow and try to point out where "red" ends and "orange" begins. Most people could agree that a small area could be bracketed and the division point would be in that area - but if a specific line is drawn, not everyone would agree that the line is in the right place.
<< <i>Sometimes "miniscule" differences translate into huge and important opportunities. Doesn't this question really turn on everyones individual philosophy?
Clearly you are correct about the opportunities, as the market is proof of that. But I think individual philosophy would address the topic of the relative value of such differences, not the fact that the differences are indeed tiny.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
Knowing the buyer, my guess is that it was a very screwd investment. People like Jerry frankly see things that the rest of us miss. There simply is no smarter buyer out there (maybe a few as smart
My guess is that he bought it cheap!!! For those of you smart guys who still don't believe it, how many do you have to sell? If you are so smart, why didn't you buy a bunch of low pop moderns a few years ago. If you missed it then, why should anyone think you are correct now?
Greg
Greg: You spelled "screwed" wrong - how freudian
Wondercoin
I was about to PM Typetone.
It's not my opinion it's by definition as far as every grading standards guide I've every read (ANA, PCGS, Photograde, etc.). The dealers of these coins want to hype those miniscule (by definition) differences to make them appear significant. You trumpet the phrase "the best" as if there is some sizable difference between coins in those grades. Focus, focus, focus, focus on the miniscule.
Again, to each his own but when it comes down a situation where 99% a coin's value rest on a mark 1/4 of the size of the period at the end of this sentence (or two or three marks), it's an indication to me of a very out of balance perspective on the minutia of the hobby whether it's the registry set competition or not.
miniscule, minutae, insignificant or any of their synonyms.
Grades have evolved not because they are the least difference which can be spot-
ted but because they are handy for collectors. If you don't care about what you con-
sider insignificant differences then you would do well to not collect any coins that
might be influenced by them. But there are those who do care about the differences
and they don't look so miniscule to them.
To each his own.