If uncleaned coins are sleepers, how will they awaken?
MrEureka
Posts: 24,419 ✭✭✭✭✭
Every day, many high quality coins are cleaned (or worse) by knowledgable numismatists. Therefore, uncleaned coins are constantly increasing in rarity, especially compared to their cleaned (or worse) counterparts. However things play out, it's obvious to me that the uncleaned coins represent a better long term investment.
Now, for the part that confuses me, let's take two PCGS 65 coins. One is dipped, nice looking and 100% acceptable to most knowledgable buyers. The other has never been cleaned. Let's say that both are worth the same price today. (NOT because they're in the same type of holder, but because the coins are of comparable OVERALL quality.)
At some point in the future, I'm convinced that the uncleaned coin will be worth twice as much as the cleaned coin. The questions are:
1. How long will it take for that to happen?
2. When that day arrives, will the two coins still be considered to be of equal grades?
Now, for the part that confuses me, let's take two PCGS 65 coins. One is dipped, nice looking and 100% acceptable to most knowledgable buyers. The other has never been cleaned. Let's say that both are worth the same price today. (NOT because they're in the same type of holder, but because the coins are of comparable OVERALL quality.)
At some point in the future, I'm convinced that the uncleaned coin will be worth twice as much as the cleaned coin. The questions are:
1. How long will it take for that to happen?
2. When that day arrives, will the two coins still be considered to be of equal grades?
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
0
Comments
Given your example, obviously the coin that was 65 without dipping is a guaranteed winner. It is a 65 without coin cosmetology. The other one likely wasn't.
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor
Interesting thread....and I profess I don't really know the answers.
However, I have long said that as Morgan dollars go, some day GSA coins would be recognized as one of the last remaining recognizable hoards of coins that haven't been dipped, whizzed, thumbed, AT'd, or otherwise monkeyed with by the coin doctors.
Perhaps NGC's GSA grading service which allows buyers to enjoy the coins in the original holders but also gives them more confidence in paying the price for the grade, will elevate the coins to the position that I believe they deserve.
GSAGUY
Edited to fix my lousy spelling.
<< <i>1. How long will it take for that to happen? >>
I'm not sure it will ever happen. It would mean that the market as a whole would have to put a lesser value on dipped, blast white coins. Such coins may not be fully original, but they are often quite attractive. I think there would always be a good number of collectors who would like to own such coins.
<< <i>2. When that day arrives, will the two coins still be considered to be of equal grades? >>
No, unless there are major changes in the way the market works. Today's rule of thumb is grade=price. For two coins of the same grade differ in price by 100%, there will have to have been massive upheaval in general unless a new designation is employed. It's the designations that allow an exemption from the grade=price rule.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
"Andy, do you like breast implants?"
. . . . There really is some comparisons to draw here, both in the positive and the negative.
Ah yes, the gift that keeps on giving.
GSAGUY
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
i really think you hit the wayward trail with the opening line by presuming a type of production line enterprise in the works and i couldn't be more in disagreement with your premise. coins get cleaned daily to be sure, but certainly a very small prercentage overall and then only those that can be judged as having a legitimate chance at improvement by the cleaning, whatever method that might be. i believe the norm is more often for a collector/dealer/doctor to simply pass over coins with problems and clean only coins which stand out for some reason, and those are the exceptions, perhaps a proof with obvious cameo but hazed or a mint state coin with eye catching luster and unmarked surfaces yet dull toning. the tenor of your post seems to be dipping of coins.
do you really believe there is a mass searching of material to indiscriminately clean in hopes of enhancement for a profit?? that's quite a cynical viewpoint.
with that said i would ask you two questions:
1. do you really think collectors/dealers/doctors clean high quality coins?
2. do you really think a nice looking and 100% acceptable MS65 coin can be accurately identified as having been dipped by most knowledgeable collectors or PCGS?
al h.
andy is absolutely right!!!!!!! IT WILL HAPPEN AND IS HAPPENING NOW!!!!
but of course it will take some sort of natural "coin" disaster to push this ever fruther along
but when and how i do not know i mean i never would have imagined five years ago that ultra modern coins in ms/pr70 and even some coins minted in the last three years or sowould sell for hundreds to thousands in a certian slabbing services holders and yet id cracked out of the holder it is only worth face value to maybe a few dollars over face!!??
so i cant tell you when this will happen but it is definately on the horizon
now if the coin has been dipped and it is still eye appealling and white and for example a deep cameo and looks like it was struck yesterday with the flash and blast as such of a newly struck coin and also no haze cloudiesss etc then this coin will also be good
but overall andys post is simple yet great and true but i cant answer his question how long will it take to happen>???? but it will happen and isstarting now it is a work in progress so to speak
as far as if the dipped coin and original coin will the grade change? not if the dipped coin is superb and eye appealling and is a proof and cameo deep cameo and with the flash and blast of a newly minted coin just off the dies without any problems like haze cloudiness then they will be on par
as to blast white dipped mintstate coins i do not like them at all pre 1835 silver walkers barbers seated coins not produced for collectors without mirrored surfaces
well i think let the buyer BEWARE!!!!!!!!
not that they are bad coins but i think the smarter money should buy smarter coins
as per the below!!! see directly below
only buy thick skinned white original coins or really neat toned coins both with great eye appeal in mintstate grades then i thinks you gots the best and something that will just keep getting more desirable why buy anything else? think smart buy smart read and reread andys thread over and over
spend your money more wisely and then you will be the happy one in the end not only will you have fun with coins when it comes time to sell you will at the very least break even maybe more??
the point is......... buy something that matters a sure thing and at the very least a smart thing a better choice! read and reread andys post again and again
these types of coins andy is talking about will only get better more demand whatever you call it
yes i do think there are always exceptions to the rules like i commented above as per proof cameo and deep cameo silver and nickel coins
i hope you make all the right decsisons
or think about it what would you rather have? and even if you go with blast white buy them with money you can afford to lose discretionary funds and most importantly consider it a hobby for fun if you think ANYTHING ELSE that is great and okie---- just let the buyer beware-----------
and all those dipping collectors keep dipping all those blast white mintstate coins i love it you are just creating more demand for all the original and great toned stuff!
dipped blast white mintstate pre 1950 coins are gross and ugly and have no "look" to them and are for the uninformed and novice buyers
sincerely michael
I am proud to say I liked original, when original wasn't cool.
Les
the only disagreement that i have with your post is the subtle allusion to the fact that nicely toned coins are being dipped white. i really think that's either a misconception on the part of many or else a poorly expressed thought. the market is currently on fire for color and the CD's are in full swing, so why would coins be dipped white?? coins that are dipped white are almost universally impaired, either by haze or unnattractive tone. as such, they are going nowhere. there will always, always, always be a market for attractive brilliant coins. ther will always, always, always be a market for attractively toned coins. can you say the same thing for dull gray or mottled brown toning on coins or hazed proofs?? probably not.
let's be serious here. look at the coin below and tell me what you think of it. i'll tell you what i think: it is undeniably butt-ugly. should it be dipped brilliant? probably, but that's a decision for it's owner to make. if done correctly the coin will not be harmed. this much i know, it ain't gonna get no better on it's own. as a purist, do you or anybody for that matter, honestly think that coin is better of like it is? it is a prime candidate for improvement.
al h.
<< <i>as a purist, do you or anybody for that matter, honestly think that coin is better of like it is? it is a prime candidate for improvement. >>
Hey Keets, since you asked if anybody felt it is better off like it is I will weigh in and state imo it IS better off left like it is. My reasons? well for one if that coin is dipped I'm sure all the toning will not come off and if it does it will be back. Only in more ugly fashion. IMO a dipped and re-toned goldish brown spotted like my pots and pans is worse. Second, I don't know if it's your coin but I suspect it's not. I don't think that coin would be that ugly in person, but hey... I'm a purist.
I think coins like these should be ignored by people that think they can "Fix" them and leave them for someone that will enjoy them. Period.
but such is the human condition and since this is all we got on here this one way typing and also many do not know me or my personality i guess it is difficult
but you make excellent points keets! i guess for me i just give what i think ONLT MATTER STO ME AND WHAT I FIRMLY BELIEVE AND PRACTISE ! i could be right or wrong but for me it doesnot matter as it is right for me
i guess when all is said and done you read all the comments and thewn make up your own mind as there is no right or wrong only what you want to do with your time talents and $$$$$
yes i hate to write anything as i guess anyone can take it many ways and most will take it as i did not mean it as i guess you can only see what i say not what i meant............lol
i guess for me there are of course many butt ugly toned coins that are dipped white and i suppose it is an improvement but for me this is like a no brainer assumption for me i just assume that this is something many alreasy understand kind of like if i say when driving you need a good road map i assume you alreasdy got a licence and the car registered and insured and inspected before you leave with the map on your trip! lol
same with great noed coins as i am sure for the most part no one would dip a great toned eye appealling coin also a no brainer for me they would dip coins to make them better resales in the persons mind weather they are or not is immatERIAL AS PEOPLE act and make decsisons and choices on what they believe to be true
and as per the above i make an assumption that this is a given that people assume crappy coins will be dipped to improve them and also that great or nicely toned coins will not get dipped as the bottom line in the coin con game is $$$$$ so dipping is just a product or hopefully turing and ugly duckling into a swan and even improving it? that is okie
BUT....................
but for me i still believe what i originally wrote even if the dipped blast white mintstate coin is better than before the dip it is still a coin THAT IS NOT FOR ME!! the original and ot toned eye appealling coins like andy said he said it well just for me read and reread his articel i just add pre 1950 to my assessment
now maybe i AM totally wrong but that is not the point of my thoughrs i am just stateing what i believe in and waht i practise and what i like everyone will have to deside for themselves what they want to do and maybe it is the total opposite of me and that is okie
i am not into nor do i know or understand anything about post 1950 coins
and then even 1940's coins i only like walkers and the proof coins in the 40's
iguess in the end when all is said and done i just want even if one person on here to read what i say and maybe it will make them think and might help them to make better decsisnos for themselves and at least it makes them go
hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
and helps them make better decsisons for themselves
discussion is good in fact great it gives ideas of what others think but in the end when all is said and done
you make your own decsisons on what you like you might agree or disagree with me and that is okie if i gice you something to think about maybe it might help you make a better decsison for yourself!!
coins are for fun and collecting know what you are looking aswt and deside for yourself waht it is worth to you
buy only with money you can afford to lose discretionary funds coins ARE NOT AN INVESTMENT
if you do not do the above that is okie just let the buyer beware
i am not ttying to save the clever epople who make some to lots of monrey in the coin con game
i am trying toget many to do some more thinking for themselves and with more thoughts maybe they will ask more questions and maybe just learn something!
sincerely michael
in terms of mintstate coins pre 1950 i think they best buy for your money in the long run will ONLY BE ORIGINAL WHITE AND/OR TONED MINTSTATE COINS WITH TREMENDOUS EYE APPEAL
stick to those and do not worry about the rest..............lol
if you do not buy anything for a long time you will survive!
and if you gots so much money and time on your hands where the money is burning a hole in your pocket and it is like truly driving you crazy not to buy a coin and it is affecting your health
let me know PM me and MAYBE I CAN help you out by putting you in touch with some coin sellers of great coins!
sincerely michael
and even if i think i know i have to see the coin in person
for me
i have never personally examined a mintstate franklin before other than passing one on a table or in a case with seeing it out of the corner of my eye
sincerely michael
In my experience, all toned coins are marketed as "original" by dealers unless they are clearly AT or not marketable for other reasons like damage. Coins like this example have almost certainly been dipped at least once, but this would never stand in the way of a salesman's pitch. People who own these coins (and this goes triple for dealers) have a gigantic vested interest their coins being original, and the buyer will never entertain the thought of the coin being retoned since he is the one purchasing it. Therefore it's sort of a don't ask, don't tell policy for colored coins.
I don't know how you can characterize coins receiving 2-10x greysheet bids as sleepers anyway. I see this as a boom market which will be utterly destroyed as soon as someone can demonstrate a fool proof method for applying artificial toning to brilliant coins that can fool certification services. Therefore speculation in miracle original coins is a very dangerous business.
Coins can be divided into three categories:
(1) Very likely dipped
(2) Very likely never dipped
(3) Very hard to tell.
(the well known three V's)
I believe that many coins can be placed in categories (1) and (2). Of the coins I own, I believe I can put perhaps 70 % into one of these categories. (actually, far more by # of coins, but 70 % if I exclude the very common coins - -recent mint sets, etc) In many cases, the categorization can be done by inspection/characteristics. In some cases, I know the coin's history.
I do have a particular fondness for coins in category (2), especially those that appear obviously undipped (eg. - 1950s mint set coins). Most of these coins currently do not seem to sell for much of a premium -- ie, there is only a small "originality" premium as far as I can tell, and I am happy to pay 10 - 20 % for coins that I view as original. I actually don't expect these coins too "awaken" relative to properly dipped coins. That is, I think a very attractive white coin (as opposed to one that is even slightly dipped out) and a very attractive coin that has appearance of originality will both bring premiums. I like to have a few of these white coins in my collection because I like diversity, but for the most part, I like a variety of surfaces . . .
(PS - If doctors can consistently create monsters, I certainly agree that massive multiples for monsters will come down. However, unless you are talking about post war coins, the number of choice mint state coins to play with is fairly small, and I think it is unlikely that doctors will be able to both repair luster and then apply monster toning. Most coins that sell for massive toning premiums have surfaces that are alive and glow with toning. There are not a lot of these coins to begin with)
First, original does not mean ATTRACTIVE to many collectors. Most of the people who are into original coins are interested mainly in the rainbow shades that are bringing huge premiums these days. Gray or more muted multiple colors are not on their radar scenes.
Too many collectors like only WHITE silver coins, and it’s had to change them. This applies not only to Mint State pieces but also circulated coins as well. Too many collectors are turned off by circulated coins was original gray surfaces. Others are totally enthralled by the sometimes bizarre colors that can come up on circulated coins that have been dipped. Just check out the comments when someone on these forums posts a picture of a multicolored silver piece in EF or VF. There will always be someone who will respond with a post like “great color!” or “what a gem.”
As for me I’d much sooner have an original piece with gray surfaces, but then again I’m in the minority.
K S
K S
hey stman
here's the real deal about that. that coin looks the way it does because of poor storage, a victim of Mint Set packaging. i can assure you that if it had been stored properly after mintage it would be blast white. all toning is a result of improper storage and if that coin were to be dipped and stored properly it wouldn't retone in any fashion, especially the fashion you seem to find appealing.
oh yeah, hi karl. nice to read your simple yet myopic POV. shift in your seat andyou might see things differently.
al h.
I have to wonder if some day cleaned coins won't carry their weight
why are we collecting them !!!
<< <i>oh yeah, hi karl. nice to read your simple yet myopic POV. shift in your seat andyou might see things differently. >>
i shifted in my seat, amazingly, the bottom line didn't change.
dipping is still cleaning!
K S
i really do admire your staunch resolution and actually agree with you. the point where we part company is that i believe some coins need to be cared for, the orphans of the hobby. what i see happening is that some of the unattractively toned material just keeps circulating on the dealer-to-dealer circuit, and time eventually catches up to it in the manner of rub, dings and additional haze or tone.
last week i brought home a capital housed 1955 proof set that had a nickel i wanted for my raw collection and an obviously cameo'd half that through the plastic, looked to have a shot at 67-68. sadly, after the dip it was revealed to have some obverse scuffs and a few faint reverse marks on the bell. they weren't the type that are consistent with mintage, so they're most likely from bouncing around in that plastic. no more bouncing!! i see it as a solid PR65CAM that has found a home with greatly improved mirrors and white cameo.
al h.
<< <i>all toning is a result of improper storage and if that coin were to be dipped and stored properly it wouldn't retone in any fashion, especially the fashion you seem to find appealing. >>
Keets... Thanks for the lesson on storage, improper storage, and dipping and re-toning. Problem is I'm not sure where I said I found dipping and re-toning appealing.
also, the context of when i say "don't dip" is where it's getting dipped to turn it blast white, not to remove problems, ie. pvc, etc. in the context of curation, i say by all means, do the necessary dipping to rescue the coin.
but like i said in the rosemont thread, the ratio of, for example, dipped morgans vs. un-dipped is staggering, i can hardly fathom the insane preponderance of blast-white morgans over original coins! i think they caught up w/ bust halves already!
K S
<< <i>hey keets, i gotta admit that my standpoint is from the early bust coins that i collect. i mentioned in a prev. discussion w/ russ that , where your talking about kennedy halves, or eisenhower dollars, or roosevelt dimes, or something where there is a huge supply of unc coins, then i don't really have more than a hiccup about that getting dipped, whereas a 1827 bust half getting dipped gives me a full-blown gut-wrenching paralysis-inducing stomach-ulcer.
>>
Very few moderns have ever been dipped. The coins have not had the years
of exposure to moisture and corrosive atmospheres for toning and tarnish to
be a significant problem. There is also no good way to dip copper nickel clad.
While it would make some sense to try to dip a modern rarity if it were to tarnish,
there is and has long been a tendency to simply spend most common unattractive
moderns. You'll find many of the high grade older clads in circulation are unattract-
ively toned. This is almost certainly caused by this factor.
i guess that was a stretch on my part, that if you didn't find the subject coin unappealing enough to think it needed help, you must like it. my apologies for my misunderstanding. i don't consider my self an authority on storage or anything, really. that's just something from my own experience that has proven itself over the course of 40 years.
and no, it isn't my coin. i happened to see it yesterday evening and it was fresh on my mind when i entered this thread so i linked it up.
.......and karl, regarding the dipping of Morgan dollars, i'm puzzled by that myself. pretty much any date can be found easily up to MS65 and yet they are dipped over and over. i generally give them only a passing glance unless they have one of three things going for them---excellent luster, interesting pastel color or frosted devices.
al h.
In my hypothetical, the two coins were said to be of equal overall quality and value. 10 years from now, provided that the coins do not change, they will still be of equal overall quality. However, my contention is that the two coins will no longer be of equal value because the relative rarity of the two coins (cleaned vs uncleaned) will have changed.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I think the premise of your argument has merit, but to many collectors it is not going to matter... especially in the MS grade range. I think your premise is rock solid and correct with respect to classic coinage in the high VF range to AU58. Nothing is worse than seeing a classic design that is in the EF45 to AU58 range that has been dipped and stripped of its natural look.
I still maintain that coins that are original within this grade range are worthy of being a "protected class" by the grading services and should be designated as having original surfaces but I have been told by the important people that the market does not want this... while reasonable minds can differ, I still think collectors should be given the choice as to what they want in their collection and the service should be offered...
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
blast white or great tonedoriginal proof coins both with exceptional eye appeal that look good to me again from my minds eye are great coins to own and collect apprecasite
and i think they are something i am comfortable with and are coins i thinkwill always ben in demand hold their values for the most part and will increase in demand as time goes on but even if not i am happy witrh the above and can sleep with the tohught of the coins as per the above and be happy with them
and their potential to be liked and liquid and in demand with an even greater demand in the up and coming future years
as some have said on here and well put andys thread has merit and i totALLY AGREE read and reread his opening post in this thread
this is a grest thread and all the comments with somemore than others are all great!
this is great reading for anyone new to coins and with some spending money and wondering all about this coin thing and original toned and blast white coins
it certianly gives much food for thought
i hope everyone takes all the comments on here and it helps them make better decisions for themselves
and i hope everyone makes all the right decisions!
sincerely michael
K S
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
<< <i>Just stumbled on this. Things didn't play out as I expected, but it's still interesting. >>
Or maybe you haven't waited long enough? I too have pondered this point and although it may never happen on a wide scale, I feel there's some truth to the theory.
type2,CCHunter.
today, strongly prefer, and pay up for original toned examples, and discount highly dipped or unnaturally toned ones.
My latest purchase was an 1837 Reeded edge half( PC 64), that guides for about 4500 in 64, and 19,000 in 65.
While I did not pay the next grade, the beauty and originality of the coin caused me to value it at more than twice 64 money.
I know of many instances where Barber quarter and half collectors will pay the next grade up for PQ coins.
And most bust half collectors will do the same, for the right coin.
The original post tried to compare equally graded 65's-one blast white and one original. That just doesn't work for classics.