What do you really know about Moderns?
keets
Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭
This post is prompted by some of the responses on the "Insane" thread concerning the MS67Plus who purchased the 1999 MS68 State Quarter. I'll add a disclaimer first and then get at it-----I collect moderns by series and classics by type. This is mainly because there is a larger source of raw modern material available coupled with a higher price for truly eye appealing classic type.
What struck me in the responses and what is typical of expressed distaste of modern coinage is a limited knowledge of the actual coins themselves. Several members posted some very pertinent facts regarding searches of thousands of coins, the ability to notice nuances in strikes from studying a coin type and availability based on that searching. Why would those facts be dismissed just because the coin types aren't liked? Would they be valid if the discussion settled on Barber Half Dollars?
The defense against collecting moderns always, always, always rests on the Red Book fact that there were so many made. Wouldn't it be fun if detractors could actually state some pertinent facts about moderns besides how many were made and the fact that they don't like the designs? We already know that. Who has actually studied a modern series to the point of understanding strike differences between the different mints? Who looks past a final mintage figure for a particular year to determine how easily a coin will be to find in high grade? Who has paid attention and knows that just because there were 200,000,000+++++ struck in most years there is still a "key" date or two??
If all you know about any series, whether it's modern State Quarters, Morgan Dollars, Seated Half Dimes, Indian Head Nickels or any series is a few pop numbers or a key date or two because other collectors have determined it for you, your missing out on the fun of the hobby. And when you denigrate another collector out of ignorance...............
Have a nice day!
Al H.
What struck me in the responses and what is typical of expressed distaste of modern coinage is a limited knowledge of the actual coins themselves. Several members posted some very pertinent facts regarding searches of thousands of coins, the ability to notice nuances in strikes from studying a coin type and availability based on that searching. Why would those facts be dismissed just because the coin types aren't liked? Would they be valid if the discussion settled on Barber Half Dollars?
The defense against collecting moderns always, always, always rests on the Red Book fact that there were so many made. Wouldn't it be fun if detractors could actually state some pertinent facts about moderns besides how many were made and the fact that they don't like the designs? We already know that. Who has actually studied a modern series to the point of understanding strike differences between the different mints? Who looks past a final mintage figure for a particular year to determine how easily a coin will be to find in high grade? Who has paid attention and knows that just because there were 200,000,000+++++ struck in most years there is still a "key" date or two??
If all you know about any series, whether it's modern State Quarters, Morgan Dollars, Seated Half Dimes, Indian Head Nickels or any series is a few pop numbers or a key date or two because other collectors have determined it for you, your missing out on the fun of the hobby. And when you denigrate another collector out of ignorance...............
Have a nice day!
Al H.
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Comments
As for the mintages, they are really irrelevant. What counts are survival rates. Here once again many millions of state quarters are being set aside in some degree of Mint State. One relevant question is, are the few superior examples out of those millions of coins really worth these huge premiums? A second question is, will those prices hold up years from now?
Finally are you comfortable with the fact that PCGS has so much control over the supply of these coins? Are you comfortable with the fact that PCGS might change the grading standards at some point? Do you trust them to apply grading standards consistently? As a constant observer of grading for classic coins, my answer would be in the negative for both of these questions.
If you can yes to all of these questions, then in your mind paying thousands of dollars for these coins is a prudent move. I’m among those who would answer, “No,” to all of them. I’ve seen how the modern coin market has been manipulated in past, and frankly I have little faith in it.
I would give the same answer for some issues of classic coins when their prices reach specific levels. No collectable is immune from becoming overpriced because of excessive collector exuberance.
Pennies make dollars, and dollars make slabs!
....inflation must be kicking in again this dollar says spend by Dec. 31 2004!
Erik
vague warnings, questions answered many dozens of time, or concern myself
with moderns which were manipulated so long ago that they are now classics,
I will simply answer part of the question.
What I do know is that they have a bright future so long as there are so many
people who dislike them so much. As long as most serious and mainstream col-
lectors find the coins uninteresting or distasteful their is really little chance that
they can become over-valued. As long as this continues we "bright siders" will be able
to pick up scarcities which would sell for many multiples of their current price if
they were minted before 1965.
I know that there are interesting and rare coins in circulation. I know that shiny
little pieces of metal can be fun to collect, even when they're not all that shiny.
I'll repeat my of refrain again, why do you care what others collect and for those who get their dander up when someone questions what you collect, why do you worry about it. Answer these two questions, then get on with your coin collecting. Enjoy it, it is what it is a hobby. Every time I go to a show and I see a parent along with their child or children pouring offer coins, it reminds me of my own humble start in the hobby. Allow the collectors of modern coinage the same priviliege that our parents, grandparents, etc. were once allowed.
I collect Silver Washingtons and Morgans, and moderns...none of them graded above MS66.
Nobody has collected his reward yet so that tells me high grade moderns are rare & valuable.
Keets: Good thread. What I can add to the discussion is this:
1. For the most part, newbies, pay attention to what CLADKING has to say on the subject of moderns and you will learn a great deal.
2. Dog97, 3 years ago, I offered to pay $6,000 SIGHT-UNSEEN on these boards for PCGS pre-1965 silver Wash quarters, giving everyone ample time to slab them up. 3 years ago you will recall silver Wash quarters were regarded as "modern" coins on these boards and everyone was planning to slab up some MS68's with ease from their loose coins. While I ended up paying "five figures" for nearly every one I bought (you can see scans of many of them on my website), I am now having trouble competing as the new particpants into the market are comfortable paying nearly $20,000/coin - oh, and by the way, the members of the CU board ended up slabbing -0- coins that I am aware of and no one ever collected the "easy money" offer. And, I wouldn't be surprised if the "Lincoln guys" would be pricing a 1946(p) Lincoln cent in just PCGS-MS67RD at $5,000 (with 2 or 3 customers standing in line at that price), let alone the MS68RD I would love to buy one day from the mintage of 1,000,000,000 coins!!! When you go earlier than 1932 (like 1926(s) Buffalos or 1919(d) dimes, etc) the prices I am pointing out for coins from the 1940's -1950's are like "tip money" at the "go-go" bar.
3. Study 1965-date coinage. There are many fantastic coins in that era and ultra high grade MS 1999 first year state quarters are one interesting area to be sure. And, IMHO, it is only logical to me that if silver Roosevelt dimes (for example) in top grade can be trading at close to $10,000/coin these days primarily because a few new participants entered the chase in the past couple years, then scarce "clad" coins (like the NJ Ed bought) have potential to be interesting coins as well down the road. AND, I AM NOT TALKING ABOUT MS69 SILVER EAGLES HERE, OR THE NEARLY 95% OF THE OTHER MODERN COINS THAT HAVE LITTLE CHANCE TO ACHIEVE ANYTHING MORE THAN AN 1881(s) MORGAN DOLLAR IN MS63 HAS EVER ACHIEVED. I am interested in the "cream" 5% of the modern coins.
Wondercoin
Wondercoin
<< <i>Here once again many millions of state quarters are being set aside in some degree of Mint State. >>
Sort of like, well, the 1964 Kennedy business strike. Yet, out of a combined mintage of over 400 million, nobody has ever been able to squeeze an MS68 out of PCGS in the 17 years they've been in business. High mintage figures and hoarding of the coins don't automatically mean high populations of ultra grade examples will emerge.
Now, I'm not saying there won't be a bunch more MS68 state quarters for 1999, there may very well be. But, I am saying that we can't assume there will simply because of the high production numbers.
Russ, NCNE
I hope nothing I said in the prior thread was interrepted as modern bashing. I made it a point to mention that whether we're discussing classics or moderns I would not assign 90% or more of the value of a coin based on the things the differentiate an MS-66 from a 67 or 67 from a 68. Those things, whether classic or modern, are just not that important to me.
The BIG money (relatively speaking since I know we've got some real heavy hitters on the board
That said I have no disdain for moderns in general. I have enjoyed collecting State Quarters and filling in the State Quarter board my grandkids gave me (I've been filling it with nice MS-64 ~ 65 coins pulled from circulation). I'm also one coin away from completing my collection of toned Franklin's.
The bottom line is collect what you want and pay what you can afford. But when the discussion gets into the future market for moderns that have been saved in MS condition by the tens of thousands or millions, and when that discussion progresses to counting on a continuing market that will support 20x ~ 100x grade rarity premiums for high grade coins, it probably will generate some interesting (and heated) debate.
Pennies make dollars, and dollars make slabs!
....inflation must be kicking in again this dollar says spend by Dec. 31 2004!
Erik
Modern coins [meant for circulation] will never be minted in gold or silver again and will probably never be minted in numbers below the hundreds of millions again, and that means for circulation strikes [other than mint errors] there will NEVER NEVER be new rare by date coins made again except for the poosibility of condition rarities.
Does that mean people can't enjoy collecting statehood quarters ? Of course they can!
Does that mean people are going to try to "make" condition rarities by searching mint bags and rolls to make money ? Of course they will! Does that mean that people who buy "made" 68-70 moderns for thousands of dollars each will be happy they did in a few years down the road ???? That is a crap shoot I don't care to get into. Many people who feel this way are not bashing modern collecting, but they are saying is if you like moderns, get them from the bank for face value and if you get lucky with a mark free well struck specimen, "make the 68-70" by submitting it yourself!
Does that really sound like modern bashing, or just good common sense ?
I think the brouhaha has to do with a paradigm shift in collecting. At some points in the past ALL coins were moderns to those collectors.
However, when collectors wanted a piece 30, 50, or 100 years past, there was rarely if ever a premium for the coin desired. Of course collectors did not differentiate the Unc. grades to the degree that we do today. Secondly, the demand was much less and consequently far fewer pieces were saved in Unc.
Fast forward to today. If a collector wants an Unc. morgan or Walking Liberty Half. The same pricing exponentials exist just like the moderns. A MS62 will fetch less than a 63 and up the line it goes. The highest graded coin fetches obscene money, just like with moderns. The big difference is that the total number of Unc. coins saved is in the hundreds or sometimes thousands for the older classics. Unc. morgans or WLH are not spent on gumball machines or parking meters even in the lowly grades of MS60 or 61.
Moderns have a different aspect. True that the highest grades of MS67 and higher are rarely encountered, due to the sloppiness at the mint, strike, etc. The big difference is that coins grading MS60 to perhaps MS64 are saved by the millions or tens of millions and are still used to pay parking meters and other trivialities. They have no premium whatsoever and are worth only face value. That collectors would shell out big money for minor differences with almost impercievably small nicks and ticks is what causes great amazement.
I think this is what causes incredulity. Not that the highest grades aren't truly rare, but more that lower graded MS coins are not only worth face value, but the remaining number of coins is so large that if they were piled on you all at once their weight would crush you and cause a small gravity anamoly due to their mass!
A new shift in collecting not based on extreme rarity within a rarity (highest graded Unc. amongst Unc's which are relatively rare anyway), but paying big money for extreme rarity amongst commoness beyond measure!
Tyler
<< <i>Cladking
I hope nothing I said in the prior thread was interrepted as modern bashing. I made it a point to mention that whether we're discussing classics or moderns I would not assign 90% or more of the value of a coin based on the things the differentiate an MS-66 from a 67 or 67 from a 68. Those things, whether classic or modern, are just not that important to me. >>
No. It didn't look like modern bashing to me.
Among those who do bash moderns much of the problem is that they will take a
valid concern about some aspect of the moderns and apply it across the board.
The only thing that accurately describes ALL moderns is that they were minted after
some date which is determined by the speaker and may vary by denomination or
type. Even some of these valid concerns are not significant detriments to collecting
the coins for enjoyment or profit. Frequently even the most important concerns im-
pacts only the future potential value of one small segment of the modern markets
and will have no bearing whatsoever on the bulk of those who are or might collect
them in the future.
Some moderns which were saved in very large numbers were sometimes also fairly
well-made. Such coins are collected by many date/mm collectors in only the highest
grade which leaves the many surviving just missed coins to sell for small fractions of
the price that slightly better examples will bring. This does not apply to very many of
the business strike clads and nickels simply because few of these were saved in any
condition.
Remember too, that except for Ikes, proofs, and some of the commems and bullion
coins most of the modern markets are in their infancy and many of the aberrations
can be dismissed as growing pains. Even the more established moderns are being
rocked by the changes so rapidly occuring in the other moderns. This is not going to
go away anytime soon. The small demand in all these areas is growing and the supply
and availability is in a state of flux. Even if no new demand emerges from the legions
of states collectors there will continue to be chaos in these markets until existing col-
lectors have finished their sets.
quotes
An example: getting an MS67 steel cent instead of the 68, hundreds of $$$ saved here and IMO, the 67 will be about as nice as the 68, not quite, but close enough.
Just my thoughts on collecting...
If a coin has a mintage of 5 million and most grade 68DCAM or better, you will NEVER get me to pay a big premium for a 70DCAM. The difference in quality between 68 and 70 just plain doesn't matter to ME.
If a coin has a mintage of 500 million and there are 200 million uncs in existence, I will not consider paying a big premium for an MS68 until I first determine that almost all of the 200 million coins grade no higher than 64. Educate me and I might play.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
this is the gist of my thinking and the underlying theme of this thread. most of what's reasoned as caution about moderns can be applied to all coins. i often repeat the same mantra but thought i'd start this thread to give others the oppurtunity to validate their warnings. most of the cautioning comes off to me as wishful thinking from collectors who have an agenda or are worried that $$$$$$ are being sucked from their oppurtune hands.
why is it that a collector of Mercury Dimes will research his series, study the coins, assemble a collection and engage in discourse with others and the result will be civil? the same might take place with Buffalo Nickels or any number of series. talk might be about how weakly struck the branch mint coins were or the enjoyment of putting together a short set of Walkers.
but make the mistake of mentioning a modern collection and the boards collective blood pressure shoots up. just a strange phenomenon.
this seemed like a good way for others to be able to put some meat behind their warnings or else be recognized as, well, maybe talking past their experience. just the facts, ma'am, just the facts!! and remember, the plea of "they made 200,000,000++++" is well known and no longer acceptable.
al h.
Oh, sorry, I thought you said Morgans.
I don't think anyone here cares WHAT anyone else collects. On the other hand, I think that we all care about HOW other people collect the things that they want to collect. We're supposed to be helping each other, right?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Todd
800.954.0270
i really like Morgans even though i try to look at them in the light of all their unglorious truth. they really have more in common with the oft maligned SBA's than many understand or are willing to acknowledge. but i like them anyway. heck, last week i was talking with the local shop owner and i told him that i was going to start putting together a raw collection, nice eye appealing coins. what a nice set. and i can do it slowly one coin at a time because the choices at shows are so large. other than that i enjoy the 1878 dates, over 100 VAM's to try and figure out. WOWZER!!!!!
al h.
I guess it's tough to speculate a current market for future use, but maybe too many people are snobbish about current coinage. 100 years from now, what will the market demand of this generation?
NEVER LET HIPPO MOUTH OVERLOAD HUMMINGBIRD BUTT!!!
WORK HARDER!!!!
Millions on WELFARE depend on you!
But more generally speaking... the relatively small number of submissions you see in many cases has very little to do with the actual number of coins that were searched.
The vast majority of coins submitted represent only the very cream of the crop of FAR more coins searched. You don't just grab a roll of Ikes and send them all in, unless you want to go broke quick.
So, unfortunately, you can't use the population reports alone to infer the quality of the overall raw coin population.
Who cares whether that `78 weak 7/8 has 3 cotton bolls!
I collect Chuck-E-Cheese tokens by date and die variety!Did you know the `91 with tripled Chuck-E`s nose is the key to the series?