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Where are the biggest gaps between Greysheet/CPG values and actual market prices?
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Seated dollars, especially CAC’d, come to mind first. What else?
Superb collections are built more by omission than by addition.
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Their cousins, trade dollars, also especially CACed.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
I sold an 1864 H10c in a PCGS PR63 holder for around 20% over GS. Someone said they would have paid a lot more for it. HA and PCGS coinfacts did not show that it was really worth that much more. I could havce sent it to cac, probably would have stickered, but the $25 plus shipping and wait time did not seem justified.
That's funny you mention that. It was looking at proof seated half dime prices that inspired my post.
Superb collections are built more by omission than by addition.
I always thought problem-free and attractive, mid-grade Barber quarters and half dollars were disconnected between the two. This held especially true for the better issues, which there are many in both series.
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All US Coins, CPG retail is no where near reality for problem-free, attractive, US coins with CAC stickers on their slabs.
All? That's a bold statement. I know you curate your inventory very carefully with premium coins, so I'm not surprised if selling above CPG has been your experience. Which series stand out with the biggest gap between guide and reality?
Superb collections are built more by omission than by addition.
For the coins Alan buys, they always sell for above CPG and above auction records. Guides truly are off, and you have to buy with your gut nowadays for the truly PQ coins.
Collector of Capped Bust Halves, SLQ's, Commems, and random cool stuff! @davidv_numismatics on Instagram
And to support my claim and David's, I haven't been offered a CACed coin below CPG retail for a couple years, unless I am buying a big group, then I can bring the price down to maybe 90%-ish CPG and still way above greysheet............
In terms of series that stand out the most is early bust of anything, the guides are way off. Possibly the worst previously was seated dollars for CAC examples, these have increased recently but still are low. There is alot of catching up to do.
Warren Mills of RCNH posted this in his newsletter this week (https://www.rcnh.com/NewsItem.aspx?id=69):
"However, I am dismayed at the lack of price increases on the Grey Sheet and other pricing periodicals. Go to a coin show, look for original fresh Seated type coins, common to scarce dates but fresh coins. Look at the Grey Sheet, then ask dealers what they are quoting to sell these coins for. Then throw away the pricing sheets. I hardly ever see a knowledgeable dealer that looks at one anymore! If they are CAC coins, forget it. I was quoted up to three times Grey Sheet bid for common date Seated circulated type coins with a CAC sticker. Collectors aren’t aware of what is happening in the market and price sheets are completely dropping the ball. Without credible figures, we could lose a large part of the collector client base. They are not being educated about where most coins are actually trading. This could lead to distrust and abandoning the hobby they love. I hope the Grey Sheet and other price guides start talking with the market markers that are in the trenches. If so, be ready for a tremendous number of plus signs in these guides."
Yup. Even nice vanilla plain, Barber Quarters in most grades are way low, think 30-50% low when CACed. This is the reality of identifying the best coins for the grade as CAC does, and the guides are way off.
What Barber quarters? It seems like nobody has any for sale these days. : )
So you’re saying all the coins that are better than average are worth more than average?! You nailed it for sure
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The Greysheet prices for early copper have been way too low for decades. You can’t buy those coins for reasonable mark-ups over the bid prices. What’s reasonable. I’d say 30% for a thousand dollar + item.
True, but it you look at the Greysheet CPG CAC retail prices they list, which are supposed to be for said coins better than average, the prices are still way too low. They have 2 sets of retail prices, non-CAC and CAC. Check it out.
Sure, that's valid, but to my understanding a CAC sticker pays no regards to eye appeal, just grading accuracy. I have a fairly ugly coin with a grean bean, and it's solid for the grade, just not really all that attractive. A coin can be both CAC approved AND have significant eye appeal, there's no price guide for that...since it's subjective.
I'm BACK!!! Used to be Billet7 on the old forum.
Graded and stickered seated half dollars.
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running like a water color in the rain...."
Graded & CAC approved Seated and Trade dollars.
Not the biggest or flashiest, but rolls. 2019-W 1c, 2026 1c, etc.
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Grey Sheet does not come close for better data Liberty Gold Coins $2 1/2 through $10. Forget about CACs of these dates.
The rising prices these days are making me more discerning about what I buy. Like @BustDMs advised me, "buy the last coin first." The people who compile price guides are skilled, and they have a daunting job ahead of them. But sometimes, extenuating circumstances (rarity, beauty, condition, slabs-n-stickers) mean "throw the guide away." I just swallow hard and go for it. Maybe the price guides will reflect the new reality that we've experienced over time. But even if they are slower to catch up - the market at large will.
The coin below is 1833 JR-2 (R4) in PCGS/CAC MS62. I feel fortunate to have won it. Hammer price was over 3x price guide - and I was delighted that my underbidders didn't force me even higher! (I've posted that coin here before in the short time I've owned it, and will probably do so again in some other thread. She's a looker!)
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Really enjoying this thread. The gap between the guides and actual hammer prices is wider than most newcomers expect, and I have seen the same thing with better-date Barber halves — the guide says one thing, but nice original examples just never seem to trade near those numbers. Do you all think the lag comes from the guides updating too slowly, or is the market itself just moving faster on premium-quality pieces?
John F. (Greysheet) says frequently that he wants to lag a rising market. That helps ensure that any rise in pricing is sustainable. The thought process, I believe, is that more harm would be done if guide prices were higher than market.
Premium-quality pieces usually always sell above standard guide prices, which are for average examples. Greysheet's CAC pricing tries to capture that, but even pricing for CAC coins seems to be running away in some series.
I just offered to buy a PR65 Barber quarter yesterday. Greysheet is $1k, CPG $1.2k. But the last half dozen comps sold at auction between $1300 and $1500. I offered $1400 and think retail is a few hundred bucks higher than that.
Superb collections are built more by omission than by addition.
Subscribed to the greysheet from about 79 to 89....found it useful back then...todays world i dont look at any price guides except for mintage figures....i look sold archives....ebay...heritage...stack bowers.......have noticed in the last 3 years common date anacs gen 1 coins have risen rapidly......nice eye appealing coins with pcgs truview pictures also a home run.....
This would be a prime example of a recent auction.
A number of years ago, I was financing my collection by buying better date mid-grade Barber halves, etc. from the “sheet dealers” and reselling them to the knowledgeable people who knew what the real market was.
Of course, you rarely find such coins in the wild nowadays.
I think trading volume matters more then some set time period lag time. If volumes this month support a higher price, then that is what should be posted. Agree for thinly traded better dated coins, waiting for additional sales to confirm price movement is wise. Wonder if the average price is losing its value and a high and low price should also be included in the future.
Wait - you mean I can sell coins? How come nobody told me that??? :-)
My hobby website Groovycoins.com, new and improved!
Lol, yes, BUT you have to roll the proceeds into more coins, otherwise the money is cursed….
Agree on the mid grade Barber halves. There are some better date, mid grade, CAC examples on GC this weekend that are pulling strong prices already.
Material that is high end for the grade, PQ and in strong demand. Examples: Quality barber halves, seated material, low pop material, key dates, high end classic Commems, high demand gold coins, nice CC coins.