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Newp Buffalo Nickel From An Original Roll.
Walkerlover
Posts: 1,044 ✭✭✭✭
Happy To Buy This Buffalo. Coin in hand has very strong luster with nice golden toning. Appears to be from an original roll. Any thoughts on this coin?
11
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going to the sticker factory?
Yes for 2 reasons. I like to have all my coins with CAC stickers. Main reason. And I see a legitimate real shot for gold as the coin is very clean as well
Also will be sending with another Buffalo from a different original roll
Nice, keep us posted
Nice coin but virtually no chance. I would bet a lot of money and lay odds on the "No Gold".
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
Looks like the same coin you showed here about a year ago.
How did you come to such a strong conclusion without benefit of seeing the coin in hand?
No bought just a week ago
I stated it "looks like the same coin"
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1099925/newp-i-finally-caved-in-and-bought-a-1938-d-nickel-but-the-coin-spoke-to-me-any-comments-welcome#latest
A number of reasons regarding the look of the coin and the requirements to get a gold CAC on any coin, particularly a MS66.
But honestly, the number one reason? It's not very nice but, at this stage, betting against your grading acumen has been a winning proposition with every coin you've ever posted (to the best of my recollection).
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
Try crossing it to CACG instead.
a.k.a "The BUFFINATOR"
It has a nice look and is visually appealing, but very few 38-D buffalos are not visually appealing. There is some strike weakness especially on the rev, and while you may like the gold tone it is not the type of toning that gets rewarded the same way colorful toning does. I have no doubt it will sticker but from only these photos I also do not see it as a gold sticker contender.
How do you know it came from an original roll if you only bought it last week? Is that a claim from the seller?
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
The coin should at least get a +.
Pete
Good question. The seller had a few of them for sale with the same luster and toning look. Than I noticed the serial numbers on the slab and they were identical except for the last one or two digits.
So it appeared they were submitted in the same batch back in approximately 2005-10. When I received the coin the surfaces looked fresh and unmolested with the golden toning of coins from having sat undisturbed in a roll for 70 years before being submitted to PCGS.
Just for fun here’s mine in the same grade with a bean. There’s a black mark on the cheek, but that’s holder damage, the coin is clear.
Yours looks super white, it should bean easily, but I’m also skeptical about it getting a gold bean, but you never know.
Good luck!
Newbie collector of type and circulated Peace dollars, photographer of places and animals, player of instruments and builder of amplifiers, espresso industry professional, and a person distracted by shiny objects.
CACG Registry
MyCollect Registry
Fair enough, it very well could have come from a roll as these were horded and saved by the roll but I'm not sure you can make that claim as fact from the info you have. What happened to the 38-D you previously bought that you posted about? Did it receive a green bean?
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
Maybe it’s just the images, but it looks as if there’s some flatness and/or light hairlines at the central portion of both the Indian’s cheek and the buffalo.
That aside, I don’t see any realistic chance of a gold sticker, as the coin looks nice, but not special.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
..
Previous coin didn’t match the seller’s description
Posting for you the sellers photos. Maybe they are clearer? Let me know your thoughts. Thanks.
That doesn’t change my opinion.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I would have rather seen pictures of that original roll.
I have pictures from a few of the other coins if you would like to see them?
NO......
...... If course I'd like to see them! 😉
So you returned another coin to the eBay seller after soliciting comments here?
How do we know you won't do the same thing with your new coin?
Other coin was a few years ago. This coin is going to CAC. Will post results in a few weeks
I've owned a few original rolls of 1938-D Buffalo nickels, and they've looked just like your coin. Meaning, your coin is nice, but not special for the date.
I am not claiming to anyone that the coin has amazing toning, just that it has strong eye appeal and flashy original attractive gold color.
In combination with almost 100% clean surfaces I think it has a fair shot at gold. I base this on the fact that I think it could easily grade solid MS 67 at PCGS today in my humble opinion. But happy to take the green if not.?
I have some experience submitting 1938-D Buffalo nickels to CAC for stickers -- and all within the past 10 months. I've submitted eight coins, all PCGS, three MS65 and five MS66. Of the eight, seven received CAC stickers. The one failure was an MS66 in a PCGS Gen 2 holder. Of the seven that received CAC stickers, one received a Gold -- one of the MS65's. Interestingly, I purchased this coin from GC this summer for under $50 -- it's worth a little bit more now.
I can't tell from your pics @Walkerlover if your coin will sticker, but I say give it a try. It is a nice looking coin. Good luck.
For what it's worth, my batting average with Walking Liberty submissions is not as good. I'm four for ten.
I believe this one will bean green. Good luck!
Looks nice, I don't see anything that would keep it from stickering.
I recently sent in a 38-D with a group of coins: an old fatty NGC with great luster, nice golden toning, mark-free MS66. I thought it had a good shot at gold but alas, it went green.
Collector, occasional seller
It’s very difficult to get gold on a 66, although 61 38-D have achieved it at CAC. I need the CAC for my collection as all are stickered.
Too much money is being wasted on playing the slab and sticker game with common coins such as 1938-D Buffalo Nickels.
Still waiting.
The 38-D buffalo is a historically under-graded coin, as evidenced by a gold CAC sticker rate (as a % of all stickers) of a whopping 33% for MS65s. Gold stickered slabs sell quickly and consistently for $500+ in the market.
If 50% of the 38-Ds you send in sticker, and 1 in 3 stickers are gold CAC, sending in 12 coins would yield 4 green beans and two gold on average. $26/coin grading fee = $312 + $60 S&H = $372.
You could throw all of the non-stickered and green CAC coins in the trash and, assuming you paid $60 CPG retail for each coin, still break even with two gold stickers ($1k+ MV).
It's collectors being willing to pay $500+ for common date gold CACs and old holders that make playing the game worth it on common coins like this.
Superb collections are built more by omission than by addition.
I don't disagree, but I think if you've got a number of coins going the additional cost for one inexpensive coin isn't going to make that much difference, particularly if one thinks there's a chance for gold. I certainly wouldn't recommend sending a single coin submission with a 38-D Buff.
Collector, occasional seller
That sounds great but I think it involves some very optimistic thinking.
You mentioned a % rate for MS65’s that received gold stickers. What’s the % rate for MS66’s, which is the grade of the subject coin? I’m guessing it’s lower than that of the MS65’s. But, whatever it is, we don’t know how those winners compared to this one.
I’m not offering a bet. But, since you mentioned “1 in 3 stickers are gold CAC”, hypothetically, would you accept (only) 2 to 1 odds on this coin receiving a gold sticker? I certainly wouldn’t.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
MS66 38-D 5c hit gold 5.4% of the time when stickered. Regardless, I was replying to the generalized statement made by another commenter about chasing stickers on common coins (which I quoted, to be clear).
I believe you misinterpreted the odds. I noted that on MS65s, 1 in 3 coins that sticker receive a gold, not 1 in 3 coins submitted. Of course 2 to 1 odds on a coin not only stickering but hitting gold is a bad bet.
I hypothesized that perhaps 50% of coins submitted would receive a sticker, so 1 in 6 would hit gold in that case. I wouldn't take those odds either on any individual coin; it's about probability and the law of averages.
Superb collections are built more by omission than by addition.
The 1938-D PCGS MS65 and MS66 Buffalos sent to CAC are not random. The percentage is somewhat high because those that are sent have been carefully screened and are done so after expert eyes- in general- have checked the coins over. Again, not randomly done. The OP's Buffalo appears to be a random MS66, and the odds described in the post above mine wouldn't apply.
Thank you - yes, I had misinterpreted your comment about the odds.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
No one is suggesting blindly submitting random coins. Of course the submitter would screen submissions, although probably not as meticulously as you'd think. For this issue (38-D buffalo), you'd mostly want rattlers, OGHs and fattys...throw out the ones with obvious PVC or problems and submit anything that looks like it might hit green (some will gold).
Again, my comment was in response to another poster's generalized comment about the economics of chasing stickers on common coins, not specific to a single individual coin.
Superb collections are built more by omission than by addition.
Please know my comment was not to disparage you or belittle your opinion.
Oh, I didn’t take it that way, just wanted to clarify my logic…and I agree with everything you stated in your comment.
Superb collections are built more by omission than by addition.
There are a lot of assumptions in here that, without a complete data set, vastly affect the statistics. For example:
1- Maybe MS65 coins are submitted extremely selectively because they're low-value, and I'd bet (without actually looking at any pricing data to confirm this) a green sticker doesn't add all that much value relative to the cost of getting the sticker, so if it's not a coin with a real shot at gold, it's not worth sending in.
2- Alternatively, tons of MS65 coins get sent in and very few sticker at all.
For #1, this wouldn't tell you anything about how any random coin is graded, but rather how knowledgeable the CAC submitters are. For #2, this could indicate that indeed grading is very loose on 38-D buffaloes (the opposite of your conjecture).
So yes, if 50% of coins sticker and 1 in 3 go gold, send them all in and there's money to be made. But until CAC (or some known large submitter of these coins) gives us their submission data in addition to the populations, I'm not really sure any conclusion can be drawn, especially for a submission with a small sample size.
Thanks @Walkerlover !
You’re right to point out that the logic cannot be airtight, since we do not know some things for certain. However, with a 10x increase in value with a gold CAC, the upside is asymmetric and favors sending in any problem-free MS65 in an old holder that has a shot at beaning (yes, there is some submitter discretion/skill involved). Being overly selective would result in missed opportunity, IMO, as I don’t think many submitters can reliably predict gold CACs. We would see similarly sky-high gold bean rates on lots of other common coinage if that were true.
Superb collections are built more by omission than by addition.
Take a look at 67 CACs and 66 Gold CACs that have sold at auction. Does your coin look better? Statistically, it won't, given the population in 67 is about 8% of that in 66. Take out the low-end 67s and that number is probably closer to 3%. How many high-end 66s are better than all low-end 67s? Depends on the quality spread within each grade, but it's going to be a very low number.
Many, many original rolls of 38-D Buffalos were saved when they came out. Later they were graded as such. It's why the PCGS pops show 60,000 coins in 65-66, dwarfing the population of the next highest pop coins, the 1913 Type I and 1937, by a factor of almost 9. These aren't special coins on their own. Might want to check for D/D or D/S.
Obviously, we can't make the call from photos alone, but you're looking at rather long odds for a gold sticker and questionable returns at best on spending money for green one. My thoughts are to just buy a 67 CAC.
Edit: That was my thoughts on the sticker strategy. My thoughts on the coin are that it seems nice from here.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
But when you(myself) don't have to spend the money and the stickering has already been done, I'm good with that.