@TomB said:
Congratulations to @Raufus for scooping up the last several thousand 1804 pieces!
My opinion on the disappearance of these is that they won't be back. I have nothing to back it up other than the 2024 FH gold was set for a published mintage max (15,000? 17,500? I don't recall) and they also sold decently the first day and then disappeared shortly thereafter. I don't know what day they disappeared, but do remember folks debated or discussed if they would be back again since they were shy of the stated mintage. They did not reappear. My guess, and it is only a guess, is that the US Mint struck only so many 2024 FH and they struck what they thought would sell so that when they did sell shortly after release they were simply retired instead of striking another batch. Similarly, this is what I think has happened with the 1804s.
No. With those, the ATS never reflected the maximum mintage.
We all thought more would appear, and they did not. But, in that case, there was not an ATS that suddenly dropped to zero with no corresponding sales.
"ATS" literally means the Mint has made them available for sale, either via immediate delivery, or via back order. It would be unprecedented for them to pull something they have already made available. They even made the gold Liberty Bells available for sale after temporarily pulling them due to the packaging issues.
Again, I honestly have no idea what is actually going on, but it is highly unlikely they are simply unwilling to sell something today that they would have been happy to have sold on Thursday. It's either a glitch, or a big dealer did actually grab them. We'll see soon enough, when they either come back or they publish a sales report.
@safari_dude said:
This might turn out to be an unseen winner after all. Wouldn’t that be nice? 😉 And even if they do mint 15,000 I’m still happy with my purchase. It’s a really beautiful set in my opinion.
Would be very nice!
Didn't end up having my son get one. Perhaps missed opportunity. Of course, zero expected this scenario.
With all due respect, you are making my point. Yesterday, you only bought one, and weren't sure you even wanted to keep it.
Now you are regretting not getting another one. And, you'll swing back again if it's a web glitch, and 3K make their way back to ATS.
You, and you are absolutely not alone here, really only want what you can't have.
I don't necessarily regret it st this poimt. It depends on how they do.
I absolutely am one who tries to subsidize what I want to keep with things that I can flip.
I definitely buy things I enjoy just for my collection that are far less expensive that I could care less about with respect to flippability. When gold was far cheaper, I included it in that category.
I have , in fact , bought multiple gold commemoratives that I never expected to have a cent of new mismatic value just because I love them or I love the subject. Of course , that's when gold was far cheaper.
However , in this price range , I definitely hope to offset the immense costs with a flip.
I was already contemplating heading back next week to return it , but I'll see what happens.
I really do love the coin , but it is a ton of money.
I have been impressed with the worth of the metal and realizing that that really does offset the premium to spot.
@safari_dude said:
This might turn out to be an unseen winner after all. Wouldn’t that be nice? 😉 And even if they do mint 15,000 I’m still happy with my purchase. It’s a really beautiful set in my opinion.
Would be very nice!
Didn't end up having my son get one. Perhaps missed opportunity. Of course, zero expected this scenario.
With all due respect, you are making my point. Yesterday, you only bought one, and weren't sure you even wanted to keep it.
Now you are regretting not getting another one. And, you'll swing back again if it's a web glitch, and 3K make their way back to ATS.
You, and you are absolutely not alone here, really only want what you can't have.
I don't necessarily regret it st this poimt. It depends on how they do.
I absolutely am one who tries to subsidize what I want to keep with things that I can flip.
I definitely buy things I enjoy just for my collection that are far less expensive that I could care less about with respect to flippability. When gold was far cheaper, I included it in that category.
However , in this price range , I definitely hope to offset the immense costs with a flip.
I was already contemplating heading back next week to return it , but I'll see what happens.
I really do love the coin , but it is a ton of money.
I have been impressed with the worth of the metal and realizing that that really does offset the premium to spot.
Again, it's not going to cost any less when the credit card bill comes if they are now unavailable. And you aren't going to be able to subsidize it if you are unable to buy any more.
But you and I both know that you won't be returning it if they are now unavailable, and selling for premiums on eBay. As I said, you want what you can't have. If they are easily obtainable at $5740, then that's too much to sink into it, given that your kids have no interest.
@Rdf said:
Maybe too many pending return requests for the ATS to be accurate enough for internal or marketing purposes?? (Guessing of course).
Nope. One thing has absolutely nothing to do with the other.
Pending returns would not be added back to ATS so quickly, and any sales made now would be with the full knowledge of the buyer that they are not 5 minute sell outs. So no reason to pull inventory from ATS just because some of the initial sales will be coming back as returns. That happens every time with every new release.
@safari_dude said:
This might turn out to be an unseen winner after all. Wouldn’t that be nice? 😉 And even if they do mint 15,000 I’m still happy with my purchase. It’s a really beautiful set in my opinion.
Would be very nice!
Didn't end up having my son get one. Perhaps missed opportunity. Of course, zero expected this scenario.
With all due respect, you are making my point. Yesterday, you only bought one, and weren't sure you even wanted to keep it.
Now you are regretting not getting another one. And, you'll swing back again if it's a web glitch, and 3K make their way back to ATS.
You, and you are absolutely not alone here, really only want what you can't have.
I don't necessarily regret it st this poimt. It depends on how they do.
I absolutely am one who tries to subsidize what I want to keep with things that I can flip.
I definitely buy things I enjoy just for my collection that are far less expensive that I could care less about with respect to flippability. When gold was far cheaper, I included it in that category.
However , in this price range , I definitely hope to offset the immense costs with a flip.
I was already contemplating heading back next week to return it , but I'll see what happens.
I really do love the coin , but it is a ton of money.
I have been impressed with the worth of the metal and realizing that that really does offset the premium to spot.
Again, it's not going to cost any less when the credit card bill comes if they are now unavailable. And you aren't going to be able to subsidize it if you are unable to buy any more.
But you and I both know that you won't be returning it if they are now unavailable, and selling for premiums on eBay. As I said, you want what you can't have. If they are easily obtainable at $5740, then that's too much to sink into it, given that your kids have no interest.
No doubt, the ship has sailed.
My plan from the start was to hang out for an hour or so and see how everything was going. If it looked like it was going to be a mad sellout with bot craziness , I would have just had my son pick another one up. What's happened today was unforeseeable. If they don't come back within my return window , I will , of course , keep it. It is an awesome looking coin, so at worst.I'll be stuck with an awesome looking coin that may not hold value if gold goes down. Part of the game.
Re the kids, over the next few years , the time will come to definitely start culling and stop buying. Like everyone, I wish the kids shared my interest , but our kids are not us. I would rather enjoy the money and have it as a security blanket as I get older than have the kids sell it for far less than it's worth, unappreciated, as I have seen countless times with other collectors in numasmatics & other hobbies. Part of the fun is sharing the hobby. If there's no one to share it with , might as well have the money.
A lot of what I collect is gold, so , the metal appreciation in and of itself , of course , will provide for a nice premium unless gold just utterly tanks.
I have other collectibles which are worth more than the coins that, at least, the kids have some interest in.
I think everyone who puts significant money into collectibles faces these types of thoughts as they get older.
THIS ^^^^ is why I really do not believe they were just pulled, in order to create value for those who bought early.
This sentiment also explains why the prices of most US NCLT are at current levels, and why so many are quasi-bullion substitutes, or the premiums have declined/collapsed. I'm aware that anyone buying a coin of this value isn't going to be completely indifferent to the financial outcome, but the outsized importance explains the results.
I see this sentiment in NCLT threads on this forum regularly. Along with the price performance since it was issued, that's why I infer most of the buyers are (a lot) more interested in the financial outcome than in collecting.
I too believe it's a nice design, and like it a lot more than most other US NCLT. Still, I can identify literally thousands of coins for a similar price (either individually or collectively) which are more interesting to hobbyist collectors.
That's who ultimately drives future increased premiums, hobbyist collectors.
@safari_dude said:
This might turn out to be an unseen winner after all. Wouldn’t that be nice? 😉 And even if they do mint 15,000 I’m still happy with my purchase. It’s a really beautiful set in my opinion.
Would be very nice!
Didn't end up having my son get one. Perhaps missed opportunity. Of course, zero expected this scenario.
With all due respect, you are making my point. Yesterday, you only bought one, and weren't sure you even wanted to keep it.
Now you are regretting not getting another one. And, you'll swing back again if it's a web glitch, and 3K make their way back to ATS.
You, and you are absolutely not alone here, really only want what you can't have.
I don't necessarily regret it st this poimt. It depends on how they do.
I absolutely am one who tries to subsidize what I want to keep with things that I can flip.
I definitely buy things I enjoy just for my collection that are far less expensive that I could care less about with respect to flippability. When gold was far cheaper, I included it in that category.
However , in this price range , I definitely hope to offset the immense costs with a flip.
I was already contemplating heading back next week to return it , but I'll see what happens.
I really do love the coin , but it is a ton of money.
I have been impressed with the worth of the metal and realizing that that really does offset the premium to spot.
Again, it's not going to cost any less when the credit card bill comes if they are now unavailable. And you aren't going to be able to subsidize it if you are unable to buy any more.
But you and I both know that you won't be returning it if they are now unavailable, and selling for premiums on eBay. As I said, you want what you can't have. If they are easily obtainable at $5740, then that's too much to sink into it, given that your kids have no interest.
No doubt, the ship has sailed.
My plan from the start was to hang out for an hour or so and see how everything was going. If it looked like it was going to be a mad sellout with bot craziness , I would have just had my son pick another one up. What's happened today was unforeseeable. If they don't come back within my return window , I will , of course , keep it. It is an awesome looking coin, so at worst.I'll be stuck with an awesome looking coin that may not hold value if gold goes down. Part of the game.
Right. Again, I am begging you, please consider just playing your own "game," rather than allowing things to be dictated by what others are doing.
It was too expensive yesterday. Today, not so much. If the missing 3K reappear, they might be going back again. Why?
It's the same medal, the same coin, and the same price regardless of what others are doing. Either it's too much to tie up in something your kids don't care about, or it isn't.
No matter what happens in the next few weeks or months, years from now, gold could be at $50K, and your kids will be very happy, or at $500, and they will be cursing at your funeral about all the money you set on fire. Whether or not these reappear next week.
Maybe just don't worry about that, live for yourself, and let your kids worry about themselves after you are gone.
@TomB said:
I agree with @tahbb143 regarding ultimate mintage if this was cut off similar to the 2024 FH gold. If I recall correctly the 2024 FH gold settled in around 9,900 or 10,000 pieces and this looks to have sold about 11,500 or 11,600 pieces before ats=0 showed up with currently unavailable.
What was the original, advertised 2024 FH mintage?
17,500
Actual count: ~10,000
Successful BST: dmwjr, ike126, bajjerfan, morganman94, sonoradesertrat, 12voltman, duiguy, gsaguy, gsa1fan, martin, coinfame, zas107, bothuwui, gerard, kccoin, jtwitten, robcool, coinscoins, mountain_goat, and a few more.
@Rdf said:
Maybe too many pending return requests for the ATS to be accurate enough for internal or marketing purposes?? (Guessing of course).
Nope. One thing has absolutely nothing to do with the other.
Pending returns would not be added back to ATS so quickly, and any sales made now would be with the full knowledge of the buyer that they are not 5 minute sell outs. So no reason to pull inventory from ATS just because some of the initial sales will be coming back as returns. That happens every time with every new release.
@Rdf said:
Maybe too many pending return requests for the ATS to be accurate enough for internal or marketing purposes?? (Guessing of course).
Nope. One thing has absolutely nothing to do with the other.
Pending returns would not be added back to ATS so quickly, and any sales made now would be with the full knowledge of the buyer that they are not 5 minute sell outs. So no reason to pull inventory from ATS just because some of the initial sales will be coming back as returns. That happens every time with every new release.
@Rdf said:
Maybe too many pending return requests for the ATS to be accurate enough for internal or marketing purposes?? (Guessing of course).
Nope. One thing has absolutely nothing to do with the other.
Pending returns would not be added back to ATS so quickly, and any sales made now would be with the full knowledge of the buyer that they are not 5 minute sell outs. So no reason to pull inventory from ATS just because some of the initial sales will be coming back as returns. That happens every time with every new release.
They will be back:
1. Again, the timing. They wouldn't have pulled these on a Friday night if they were pulling them for good.
2. Unlike with past recent sales, we have not seen and inventory added back to ATS. Perhaps this is due to the new checkout procedures and improved bot deterrence.
3. The Gold Liberty Bells were pulled for a day or two and then came back. Hard to say why, but they did it.
4. There is no reason to pull these from market. The mint knows they can easily sell another ~3400 units in a reasonable amount of time. The mint also has never had problems keeping product on the shelf and waiting years for it to sell.
THIS ^^^^ is why I really do not believe they were just pulled, in order to create value for those who bought early.
This sentiment also explains why the prices of most US NCLT are at current levels, and why so many are quasi-bullion substitutes, or the premiums have declined/collapsed. I'm aware that anyone buying a coin of this value isn't going to be completely indifferent to the financial outcome, but the outsized importance explains the results.
I see this sentiment in NCLT threads on this forum regularly. Along with the price performance since it was issued, that's why I infer most of the buyers are (a lot) more interested in the financial outcome than in collecting.
I too believe it's a nice design, and like it a lot more than most other US NCLT. Still, I can identify literally thousands of coins for a similar price (either individually or collectively) which are more interesting to hobbyist collectors.
That's who ultimately drives future increased premiums, hobbyist collectors.
I think that it's more nuanced then that.
I think with most high end collectibles - modern coins, fine watches, firearms, cars, art, etc. - that most in the hobby have a component of pure enjoyment of the hobby but also of wanting to buy items that will hold value and appreciate. Moderns are no different.
I am on forums for fine watches, fine/rare cars and collectible firearms. I see the same thinking in all of them.
I also see people in all of them buy and sell to finance their hobby and perhaps make a few bucks in addition.
@TomB said:
I agree with @tahbb143 regarding ultimate mintage if this was cut off similar to the 2024 FH gold. If I recall correctly the 2024 FH gold settled in around 9,900 or 10,000 pieces and this looks to have sold about 11,500 or 11,600 pieces before ats=0 showed up with currently unavailable.
What was the original, advertised 2024 FH mintage?
@safari_dude said:
This might turn out to be an unseen winner after all. Wouldn’t that be nice? 😉 And even if they do mint 15,000 I’m still happy with my purchase. It’s a really beautiful set in my opinion.
Would be very nice!
Didn't end up having my son get one. Perhaps missed opportunity. Of course, zero expected this scenario.
With all due respect, you are making my point. Yesterday, you only bought one, and weren't sure you even wanted to keep it.
Now you are regretting not getting another one. And, you'll swing back again if it's a web glitch, and 3K make their way back to ATS.
You, and you are absolutely not alone here, really only want what you can't have.
I don't necessarily regret it st this poimt. It depends on how they do.
I absolutely am one who tries to subsidize what I want to keep with things that I can flip.
I definitely buy things I enjoy just for my collection that are far less expensive that I could care less about with respect to flippability. When gold was far cheaper, I included it in that category.
However , in this price range , I definitely hope to offset the immense costs with a flip.
I was already contemplating heading back next week to return it , but I'll see what happens.
I really do love the coin , but it is a ton of money.
I have been impressed with the worth of the metal and realizing that that really does offset the premium to spot.
Again, it's not going to cost any less when the credit card bill comes if they are now unavailable. And you aren't going to be able to subsidize it if you are unable to buy any more.
But you and I both know that you won't be returning it if they are now unavailable, and selling for premiums on eBay. As I said, you want what you can't have. If they are easily obtainable at $5740, then that's too much to sink into it, given that your kids have no interest.
No doubt, the ship has sailed.
My plan from the start was to hang out for an hour or so and see how everything was going. If it looked like it was going to be a mad sellout with bot craziness , I would have just had my son pick another one up. What's happened today was unforeseeable. If they don't come back within my return window , I will , of course , keep it. It is an awesome looking coin, so at worst.I'll be stuck with an awesome looking coin that may not hold value if gold goes down. Part of the game.
Right. Again, I am begging you, please consider just playing your own "game," rather than allowing things to be dictated by what others are doing.
It was too expensive yesterday. Today, not so much. If the missing 3K reappear, they might be going back again. Why?
It's the same medal, the same coin, and the same price regardless of what others are doing. Either it's too much to tie up in something your kids don't care about, or it isn't.
No matter what happens in the next few weeks or months, years from now, gold could be at $50K, and your kids will be very happy, or at $500, and they will be cursing at your funeral about all the money you set on fire. Whether or not these reappear next week.
Maybe just don't worry about that, live for yourself, and let your kids worry about themselves after you are gone.
I hear you. There is a lot of truth in what you're saying.
However, in the collectible areas in which I really focus, guns and coins (guns >> coins), I've just seen far too many instances of one's prized possessions, acquired over a lifetime, sold for pennies of dollar of their worth by heirs who could care less about them and any sentiment and know nothing about them. I've seen this in my own family, my wife's family, with coin and gun dealers, etc. I have taken many steps to prevent this in my case. However, in the end, for me, I think that selling my valuable collectibles in time that the kids are not interested in is best. Just me, I know that others feel differently.
I intentionally waited until they went on backorder and then purchased my 1804.
I am a no hurry to get it, the pictures you all share are often enough to wet my pallet.
This gave me ample time to make a decision about whether to cancel.
It’s just plain dumb luck one way or the other. Three pages later on this thread, a lot of folks are pumped and guessing at the outcome. Cool bonus.
I play the game and keep most everything from the Mint but do get excited (sometimes spurred by others passion) when the coins are sought after rather than shunned.
@safari_dude said:
This might turn out to be an unseen winner after all. Wouldn’t that be nice? 😉 And even if they do mint 15,000 I’m still happy with my purchase. It’s a really beautiful set in my opinion.
Would be very nice!
Didn't end up having my son get one. Perhaps missed opportunity. Of course, zero expected this scenario.
With all due respect, you are making my point. Yesterday, you only bought one, and weren't sure you even wanted to keep it.
Now you are regretting not getting another one. And, you'll swing back again if it's a web glitch, and 3K make their way back to ATS.
You, and you are absolutely not alone here, really only want what you can't have.
I don't necessarily regret it st this poimt. It depends on how they do.
I absolutely am one who tries to subsidize what I want to keep with things that I can flip.
I definitely buy things I enjoy just for my collection that are far less expensive that I could care less about with respect to flippability. When gold was far cheaper, I included it in that category.
However , in this price range , I definitely hope to offset the immense costs with a flip.
I was already contemplating heading back next week to return it , but I'll see what happens.
I really do love the coin , but it is a ton of money.
I have been impressed with the worth of the metal and realizing that that really does offset the premium to spot.
Again, it's not going to cost any less when the credit card bill comes if they are now unavailable. And you aren't going to be able to subsidize it if you are unable to buy any more.
But you and I both know that you won't be returning it if they are now unavailable, and selling for premiums on eBay. As I said, you want what you can't have. If they are easily obtainable at $5740, then that's too much to sink into it, given that your kids have no interest.
No doubt, the ship has sailed.
My plan from the start was to hang out for an hour or so and see how everything was going. If it looked like it was going to be a mad sellout with bot craziness , I would have just had my son pick another one up. What's happened today was unforeseeable. If they don't come back within my return window , I will , of course , keep it. It is an awesome looking coin, so at worst.I'll be stuck with an awesome looking coin that may not hold value if gold goes down. Part of the game.
Right. Again, I am begging you, please consider just playing your own "game," rather than allowing things to be dictated by what others are doing.
It was too expensive yesterday. Today, not so much. If the missing 3K reappear, they might be going back again. Why?
It's the same medal, the same coin, and the same price regardless of what others are doing. Either it's too much to tie up in something your kids don't care about, or it isn't.
No matter what happens in the next few weeks or months, years from now, gold could be at $50K, and your kids will be very happy, or at $500, and they will be cursing at your funeral about all the money you set on fire. Whether or not these reappear next week.
Maybe just don't worry about that, live for yourself, and let your kids worry about themselves after you are gone.
BTW, NJ, I sincerely appreciate your post. I appreciate your sentiment, your concern, your blunt honesty and the time that you took to write the post.
I really appreciate you & your contributions to the forum very much.
………….However, in the end, for me, I think that selling my valuable collectibles in time that the kids are not interested in is best. Just me, I know that others feel differently.
Ugh…it pains me to read these things. I guess I am beyond lucky in that aspect. My two stepkids LOVE my collections…although my daughter in law is REALLY into my coins and collections more than her brother. When she was visiting us a week ago we were watching Antiques Road Show when my wife came in and started to change the channel. Her daughter snapped, ‘mom, what are you doing? This is one of my favorite shows! I absolutely LOVE IT! I love history and thinking about where these things have been, who owned them, and the sentimental value they hold!’ I couldn’t believe what I was hearing! Then I mentioned my dad had left me what we believe is a Tiffany lamp…..and my stepdaughter jumped off the couch and said, ‘please tell me you’re not kidding because I have been looking at those lamps for the last few months!” So next week she will get that lamp….whether it’s a Tiffany one or not. She already got several hundred 45’s, 78’s and LP’s from the 50’s, 60’s 70’s and 80’s….and says she has her friends over and plays them almost every night! She said ‘Karl, I think I’m just an old soul at heart, but I just love what you have given me!’ Her husband is into coin collecting too, so they always like to see what I’ve recently purchased and KNOW they will be inheriting some good stuff in a few years! It’s wonderful when our family members appreciate what we have accumulated and collected along the way. Just wish everyone was as lucky as me in that aspect! Cheers, karl
@Survivor50 said:
I'm still stuck at "processing", should I be concerned, especially with the current happenings, whatever they may be?
Probably ok. I opted for next day. Monday is my delivery date. Few others also posted that Monday was their delivery day as well. Even if they are standard shipping, in the past those shipping and delivery dates have been varied. That has been my experience.
Sometimes, a CC or address problem will hold it up. Call Monday to verify.
THIS ^^^^ is why I really do not believe they were just pulled, in order to create value for those who bought early.
This sentiment also explains why the prices of most US NCLT are at current levels, and why so many are quasi-bullion substitutes, or the premiums have declined/collapsed. I'm aware that anyone buying a coin of this value isn't going to be completely indifferent to the financial outcome, but the outsized importance explains the results.
I see this sentiment in NCLT threads on this forum regularly. Along with the price performance since it was issued, that's why I infer most of the buyers are (a lot) more interested in the financial outcome than in collecting.
I too believe it's a nice design, and like it a lot more than most other US NCLT. Still, I can identify literally thousands of coins for a similar price (either individually or collectively) which are more interesting to hobbyist collectors.
That's who ultimately drives future increased premiums, hobbyist collectors.
I think that it's more nuanced then that.
I think with most high end collectibles - modern coins, fine watches, firearms, cars, art, etc. - that most in the hobby have a component of pure enjoyment of the hobby but also of wanting to buy items that will hold value and appreciate. Moderns are no different.
I am on forums for fine watches, fine/rare cars and collectible firearms. I see the same thinking in all of them.
I also see people in all of them buy and sell to finance their hobby and perhaps make a few bucks in addition.
I'm not claiming the buyers don't like it or don't derive any satisfaction from owning it. I'd never claim anyone is buying coins they don't want.
It's evident just from the posts on this forum that not losing money or profit is usually a lot more important than recreational collecting to most of the buyers. It's an entirely different mentality vs. the buyer of almost all other coinage due to liquidity and premiums.
There is no getting around this conclusion, and I don't have to ask anyone or be a mind reader to reach it. It's inherent in what this coinage is as a collectible. All of this coinage can be bought at any time if the buyer has the money, and there is no meaningful variation in appearance either. This is the primary reason it's of limited or no interest to the vast majority of hobbyist collectors and why most of it sells at current premiums.
As for comparison to other collectibles, my inference is that the examples you used are also partly bought for "investment" in the sense they expect to get most of their money back, but at least those items have some other utility or are status symbols which coins aren't to non-collectors.
@Rdf said:
Maybe too many pending return requests for the ATS to be accurate enough for internal or marketing purposes?? (Guessing of course).
Nope. One thing has absolutely nothing to do with the other.
Pending returns would not be added back to ATS so quickly, and any sales made now would be with the full knowledge of the buyer that they are not 5 minute sell outs. So no reason to pull inventory from ATS just because some of the initial sales will be coming back as returns. That happens every time with every new release.
@Rdf said:
Maybe too many pending return requests for the ATS to be accurate enough for internal or marketing purposes?? (Guessing of course).
Nope. One thing has absolutely nothing to do with the other.
Pending returns would not be added back to ATS so quickly, and any sales made now would be with the full knowledge of the buyer that they are not 5 minute sell outs. So no reason to pull inventory from ATS just because some of the initial sales will be coming back as returns. That happens every time with every new release.
@Rdf said:
Maybe too many pending return requests for the ATS to be accurate enough for internal or marketing purposes?? (Guessing of course).
Nope. One thing has absolutely nothing to do with the other.
Pending returns would not be added back to ATS so quickly, and any sales made now would be with the full knowledge of the buyer that they are not 5 minute sell outs. So no reason to pull inventory from ATS just because some of the initial sales will be coming back as returns. That happens every time with every new release.
@ProofCollection said:
They will be back:
1. Again, the timing. They wouldn't have pulled these on a Friday night if they were pulling them for good.
2. Unlike with past recent sales, we have not seen and inventory added back to ATS. Perhaps this is due to the new checkout procedures and improved bot deterrence.
3. The Gold Liberty Bells were pulled for a day or two and then came back. Hard to say why, but they did it.
4. There is no reason to pull these from market. The mint knows they can easily sell another ~3400 units in a reasonable amount of time. The mint also has never had problems keeping product on the shelf and waiting years for it to sell.
Totally agree. Except, everyone is taking it on faith that a large dealer, or a few large dealers, did not just clean them out.
I'm not saying it happened. Just that it could have happened, and is as good an explanation as any for what happened.
If next week's sales report shows close to 15K sold, we'll know. If they reappear before the sales report is released, we'll know. Otherwise, we'll be free to keep speculating.
@safari_dude said:
This might turn out to be an unseen winner after all. Wouldn’t that be nice? 😉 And even if they do mint 15,000 I’m still happy with my purchase. It’s a really beautiful set in my opinion.
Would be very nice!
Didn't end up having my son get one. Perhaps missed opportunity. Of course, zero expected this scenario.
With all due respect, you are making my point. Yesterday, you only bought one, and weren't sure you even wanted to keep it.
Now you are regretting not getting another one. And, you'll swing back again if it's a web glitch, and 3K make their way back to ATS.
You, and you are absolutely not alone here, really only want what you can't have.
I don't necessarily regret it st this poimt. It depends on how they do.
I absolutely am one who tries to subsidize what I want to keep with things that I can flip.
I definitely buy things I enjoy just for my collection that are far less expensive that I could care less about with respect to flippability. When gold was far cheaper, I included it in that category.
However , in this price range , I definitely hope to offset the immense costs with a flip.
I was already contemplating heading back next week to return it , but I'll see what happens.
I really do love the coin , but it is a ton of money.
I have been impressed with the worth of the metal and realizing that that really does offset the premium to spot.
Again, it's not going to cost any less when the credit card bill comes if they are now unavailable. And you aren't going to be able to subsidize it if you are unable to buy any more.
But you and I both know that you won't be returning it if they are now unavailable, and selling for premiums on eBay. As I said, you want what you can't have. If they are easily obtainable at $5740, then that's too much to sink into it, given that your kids have no interest.
No doubt, the ship has sailed.
My plan from the start was to hang out for an hour or so and see how everything was going. If it looked like it was going to be a mad sellout with bot craziness , I would have just had my son pick another one up. What's happened today was unforeseeable. If they don't come back within my return window , I will , of course , keep it. It is an awesome looking coin, so at worst.I'll be stuck with an awesome looking coin that may not hold value if gold goes down. Part of the game.
Right. Again, I am begging you, please consider just playing your own "game," rather than allowing things to be dictated by what others are doing.
It was too expensive yesterday. Today, not so much. If the missing 3K reappear, they might be going back again. Why?
It's the same medal, the same coin, and the same price regardless of what others are doing. Either it's too much to tie up in something your kids don't care about, or it isn't.
No matter what happens in the next few weeks or months, years from now, gold could be at $50K, and your kids will be very happy, or at $500, and they will be cursing at your funeral about all the money you set on fire. Whether or not these reappear next week.
Maybe just don't worry about that, live for yourself, and let your kids worry about themselves after you are gone.
I hear you. There is a lot of truth in what you're saying.
However, in the collectible areas in which I really focus, guns and coins (guns >> coins), I've just seen far too many instances of one's prized possessions, acquired over a lifetime, sold for pennies of dollar of their worth by heirs who could care less about them and any sentiment and know nothing about them. I've seen this in my own family, my wife's family, with coin and gun dealers, etc. I have taken many steps to prevent this in my case. However, in the end, for me, I think that selling my valuable collectibles in time that the kids are not interested in is best. Just me, I know that others feel differently.
Again, if you are not doing it for yourself, just stop doing it. NCLT is not supposed to be an investment.
Precious metal prices might bail you out. Or not.
You seem to like it. So stop worrying about "pennies on the dollar." Your kid is going to be a doctor. He will be making his own money soon enough.
@safari_dude said:
This might turn out to be an unseen winner after all. Wouldn’t that be nice? 😉 And even if they do mint 15,000 I’m still happy with my purchase. It’s a really beautiful set in my opinion.
Would be very nice!
Didn't end up having my son get one. Perhaps missed opportunity. Of course, zero expected this scenario.
With all due respect, you are making my point. Yesterday, you only bought one, and weren't sure you even wanted to keep it.
Now you are regretting not getting another one. And, you'll swing back again if it's a web glitch, and 3K make their way back to ATS.
You, and you are absolutely not alone here, really only want what you can't have.
I don't necessarily regret it st this poimt. It depends on how they do.
I absolutely am one who tries to subsidize what I want to keep with things that I can flip.
I definitely buy things I enjoy just for my collection that are far less expensive that I could care less about with respect to flippability. When gold was far cheaper, I included it in that category.
However , in this price range , I definitely hope to offset the immense costs with a flip.
I was already contemplating heading back next week to return it , but I'll see what happens.
I really do love the coin , but it is a ton of money.
I have been impressed with the worth of the metal and realizing that that really does offset the premium to spot.
Again, it's not going to cost any less when the credit card bill comes if they are now unavailable. And you aren't going to be able to subsidize it if you are unable to buy any more.
But you and I both know that you won't be returning it if they are now unavailable, and selling for premiums on eBay. As I said, you want what you can't have. If they are easily obtainable at $5740, then that's too much to sink into it, given that your kids have no interest.
No doubt, the ship has sailed.
My plan from the start was to hang out for an hour or so and see how everything was going. If it looked like it was going to be a mad sellout with bot craziness , I would have just had my son pick another one up. What's happened today was unforeseeable. If they don't come back within my return window , I will , of course , keep it. It is an awesome looking coin, so at worst.I'll be stuck with an awesome looking coin that may not hold value if gold goes down. Part of the game.
Right. Again, I am begging you, please consider just playing your own "game," rather than allowing things to be dictated by what others are doing.
It was too expensive yesterday. Today, not so much. If the missing 3K reappear, they might be going back again. Why?
It's the same medal, the same coin, and the same price regardless of what others are doing. Either it's too much to tie up in something your kids don't care about, or it isn't.
No matter what happens in the next few weeks or months, years from now, gold could be at $50K, and your kids will be very happy, or at $500, and they will be cursing at your funeral about all the money you set on fire. Whether or not these reappear next week.
Maybe just don't worry about that, live for yourself, and let your kids worry about themselves after you are gone.
BTW, NJ, I sincerely appreciate your post. I appreciate your sentiment, your concern, your blunt honesty and the time that you took to write the post.
I really appreciate you & your contributions to the forum very much.
Thanks for the kind words. And, for the record, I am not judging. Just trying to help you get where you want to go.
@53BKid said:
With a one per household limit, there have to have been a ton of orders the mint will be kicking out as they check.
My guess is we'll see another opening.
Nope. There was never a problem ordering on Thursday, and the HHL was lifted at noon on Friday. Nothing will be getting kicked on this one for violating the HHL.
@TomB said:
Congratulations to @Raufus for scooping up the last several thousand 1804 pieces!
My opinion on the disappearance of these is that they won't be back. I have nothing to back it up other than the 2024 FH gold was set for a published mintage max (15,000? 17,500? I don't recall) and they also sold decently the first day and then disappeared shortly thereafter. I don't know what day they disappeared, but do remember folks debated or discussed if they would be back again since they were shy of the stated mintage. They did not reappear. My guess, and it is only a guess, is that the US Mint struck only so many 2024 FH and they struck what they thought would sell so that when they did sell shortly after release they were simply retired instead of striking another batch. Similarly, this is what I think has happened with the 1804s.
No. With those, the ATS never reflected the maximum mintage.
We all thought more would appear, and they did not. But, in that case, there was not an ATS that suddenly dropped to zero with no corresponding sales.
"ATS" literally means the Mint has made them available for sale, either via immediate delivery, or via back order. It would be unprecedented for them to pull something they have already made available. They even made the gold Liberty Bells available for sale after temporarily pulling them due to the packaging issues.
Again, I honestly have no idea what is actually going on, but it is highly unlikely they are simply unwilling to sell something today that they would have been happy to have sold on Thursday. It's either a glitch, or a big dealer did actually grab them. We'll see soon enough, when they either come back or they publish a sales report.
Depends on whether they made them yet or not. It would be unprecedented to make the coins, put them up for sale, and then pull them. It wouldn't be unheard of for them to decide not to make them.
But, I don't know.
I do know that in 2017, they sold 225,000 in half an hour. Then they're were returns, cancellations, etc. They put 60,000 back on sale. Sales only got to 215,000 and they stayed on "remind me" for months before they decided not to make the remaining 10,000.
I can't think of time they pulled them this quickly. But this has to be the busiest year ever for the numismatic division.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Comments
No. With those, the ATS never reflected the maximum mintage.
We all thought more would appear, and they did not. But, in that case, there was not an ATS that suddenly dropped to zero with no corresponding sales.
"ATS" literally means the Mint has made them available for sale, either via immediate delivery, or via back order. It would be unprecedented for them to pull something they have already made available. They even made the gold Liberty Bells available for sale after temporarily pulling them due to the packaging issues.
Again, I honestly have no idea what is actually going on, but it is highly unlikely they are simply unwilling to sell something today that they would have been happy to have sold on Thursday. It's either a glitch, or a big dealer did actually grab them. We'll see soon enough, when they either come back or they publish a sales report.
probably updating the backorder date and will sell the rest. maybe they ran out of their fancy packing tape or are these being delivered in bags?
THIS ^^^^ is why I really do not believe they were just pulled, in order to create value for those who bought early.
I don't necessarily regret it st this poimt. It depends on how they do.
I absolutely am one who tries to subsidize what I want to keep with things that I can flip.
I definitely buy things I enjoy just for my collection that are far less expensive that I could care less about with respect to flippability. When gold was far cheaper, I included it in that category.
I have , in fact , bought multiple gold commemoratives that I never expected to have a cent of new mismatic value just because I love them or I love the subject. Of course , that's when gold was far cheaper.
However , in this price range , I definitely hope to offset the immense costs with a flip.
I was already contemplating heading back next week to return it , but I'll see what happens.
I really do love the coin , but it is a ton of money.
I have been impressed with the worth of the metal and realizing that that really does offset the premium to spot.
Again, it's not going to cost any less when the credit card bill comes if they are now unavailable. And you aren't going to be able to subsidize it if you are unable to buy any more.
But you and I both know that you won't be returning it if they are now unavailable, and selling for premiums on eBay. As I said, you want what you can't have. If they are easily obtainable at $5740, then that's too much to sink into it, given that your kids have no interest.
Maybe too many pending return requests for the ATS to be accurate enough for internal or marketing purposes?? (Guessing of course).
Nope. One thing has absolutely nothing to do with the other.
Pending returns would not be added back to ATS so quickly, and any sales made now would be with the full knowledge of the buyer that they are not 5 minute sell outs. So no reason to pull inventory from ATS just because some of the initial sales will be coming back as returns. That happens every time with every new release.
No doubt, the ship has sailed.
My plan from the start was to hang out for an hour or so and see how everything was going. If it looked like it was going to be a mad sellout with bot craziness , I would have just had my son pick another one up. What's happened today was unforeseeable. If they don't come back within my return window , I will , of course , keep it. It is an awesome looking coin, so at worst.I'll be stuck with an awesome looking coin that may not hold value if gold goes down. Part of the game.
Re the kids, over the next few years , the time will come to definitely start culling and stop buying. Like everyone, I wish the kids shared my interest , but our kids are not us. I would rather enjoy the money and have it as a security blanket as I get older than have the kids sell it for far less than it's worth, unappreciated, as I have seen countless times with other collectors in numasmatics & other hobbies. Part of the fun is sharing the hobby. If there's no one to share it with , might as well have the money.
A lot of what I collect is gold, so , the metal appreciation in and of itself , of course , will provide for a nice premium unless gold just utterly tanks.
I have other collectibles which are worth more than the coins that, at least, the kids have some interest in.
I think everyone who puts significant money into collectibles faces these types of thoughts as they get older.
This sentiment also explains why the prices of most US NCLT are at current levels, and why so many are quasi-bullion substitutes, or the premiums have declined/collapsed. I'm aware that anyone buying a coin of this value isn't going to be completely indifferent to the financial outcome, but the outsized importance explains the results.
I see this sentiment in NCLT threads on this forum regularly. Along with the price performance since it was issued, that's why I infer most of the buyers are (a lot) more interested in the financial outcome than in collecting.
I too believe it's a nice design, and like it a lot more than most other US NCLT. Still, I can identify literally thousands of coins for a similar price (either individually or collectively) which are more interesting to hobbyist collectors.
That's who ultimately drives future increased premiums, hobbyist collectors.
Right. Again, I am begging you, please consider just playing your own "game," rather than allowing things to be dictated by what others are doing.
It was too expensive yesterday. Today, not so much. If the missing 3K reappear, they might be going back again. Why?
It's the same medal, the same coin, and the same price regardless of what others are doing. Either it's too much to tie up in something your kids don't care about, or it isn't.
No matter what happens in the next few weeks or months, years from now, gold could be at $50K, and your kids will be very happy, or at $500, and they will be cursing at your funeral about all the money you set on fire. Whether or not these reappear next week.
Maybe just don't worry about that, live for yourself, and let your kids worry about themselves after you are gone.
17,500
Actual count: ~10,000
Thank you. I appreciate your feedback.
They will be back:
1. Again, the timing. They wouldn't have pulled these on a Friday night if they were pulling them for good.
2. Unlike with past recent sales, we have not seen and inventory added back to ATS. Perhaps this is due to the new checkout procedures and improved bot deterrence.
3. The Gold Liberty Bells were pulled for a day or two and then came back. Hard to say why, but they did it.
4. There is no reason to pull these from market. The mint knows they can easily sell another ~3400 units in a reasonable amount of time. The mint also has never had problems keeping product on the shelf and waiting years for it to sell.
I think that it's more nuanced then that.
I think with most high end collectibles - modern coins, fine watches, firearms, cars, art, etc. - that most in the hobby have a component of pure enjoyment of the hobby but also of wanting to buy items that will hold value and appreciate. Moderns are no different.
I am on forums for fine watches, fine/rare cars and collectible firearms. I see the same thinking in all of them.
I also see people in all of them buy and sell to finance their hobby and perhaps make a few bucks in addition.
Thanks!
I hear you. There is a lot of truth in what you're saying.
However, in the collectible areas in which I really focus, guns and coins (guns >> coins), I've just seen far too many instances of one's prized possessions, acquired over a lifetime, sold for pennies of dollar of their worth by heirs who could care less about them and any sentiment and know nothing about them. I've seen this in my own family, my wife's family, with coin and gun dealers, etc. I have taken many steps to prevent this in my case. However, in the end, for me, I think that selling my valuable collectibles in time that the kids are not interested in is best. Just me, I know that others feel differently.
I was going to do this as well.
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I intentionally waited until they went on backorder and then purchased my 1804.
I am a no hurry to get it, the pictures you all share are often enough to wet my pallet.
This gave me ample time to make a decision about whether to cancel.
It’s just plain dumb luck one way or the other. Three pages later on this thread, a lot of folks are pumped and guessing at the outcome. Cool bonus.
I play the game and keep most everything from the Mint but do get excited (sometimes spurred by others passion) when the coins are sought after rather than shunned.
BTW, NJ, I sincerely appreciate your post. I appreciate your sentiment, your concern, your blunt honesty and the time that you took to write the post.
I really appreciate you & your contributions to the forum very much.
I'm still stuck at "processing", should I be concerned, especially with the current happenings, whatever they may be?
………….However, in the end, for me, I think that selling my valuable collectibles in time that the kids are not interested in is best. Just me, I know that others feel differently.
Ugh…it pains me to read these things. I guess I am beyond lucky in that aspect. My two stepkids LOVE my collections…although my daughter in law is REALLY into my coins and collections more than her brother. When she was visiting us a week ago we were watching Antiques Road Show when my wife came in and started to change the channel. Her daughter snapped, ‘mom, what are you doing? This is one of my favorite shows! I absolutely LOVE IT! I love history and thinking about where these things have been, who owned them, and the sentimental value they hold!’ I couldn’t believe what I was hearing! Then I mentioned my dad had left me what we believe is a Tiffany lamp…..and my stepdaughter jumped off the couch and said, ‘please tell me you’re not kidding because I have been looking at those lamps for the last few months!” So next week she will get that lamp….whether it’s a Tiffany one or not. She already got several hundred 45’s, 78’s and LP’s from the 50’s, 60’s 70’s and 80’s….and says she has her friends over and plays them almost every night! She said ‘Karl, I think I’m just an old soul at heart, but I just love what you have given me!’ Her husband is into coin collecting too, so they always like to see what I’ve recently purchased and KNOW they will be inheriting some good stuff in a few years! It’s wonderful when our family members appreciate what we have accumulated and collected along the way. Just wish everyone was as lucky as me in that aspect! Cheers, karl
I’m in the same boat. Also had to call them to get my payment method to process.
Probably ok. I opted for next day. Monday is my delivery date. Few others also posted that Monday was their delivery day as well. Even if they are standard shipping, in the past those shipping and delivery dates have been varied. That has been my experience.
Sometimes, a CC or address problem will hold it up. Call Monday to verify.
Boom...we win.
With a one per household limit, there have to have been a ton of orders the mint will be kicking out as they check.
My guess is we'll see another opening.
I'm not claiming the buyers don't like it or don't derive any satisfaction from owning it. I'd never claim anyone is buying coins they don't want.
It's evident just from the posts on this forum that not losing money or profit is usually a lot more important than recreational collecting to most of the buyers. It's an entirely different mentality vs. the buyer of almost all other coinage due to liquidity and premiums.
There is no getting around this conclusion, and I don't have to ask anyone or be a mind reader to reach it. It's inherent in what this coinage is as a collectible. All of this coinage can be bought at any time if the buyer has the money, and there is no meaningful variation in appearance either. This is the primary reason it's of limited or no interest to the vast majority of hobbyist collectors and why most of it sells at current premiums.
As for comparison to other collectibles, my inference is that the examples you used are also partly bought for "investment" in the sense they expect to get most of their money back, but at least those items have some other utility or are status symbols which coins aren't to non-collectors.
My pleasure!!!
Totally agree. Except, everyone is taking it on faith that a large dealer, or a few large dealers, did not just clean them out.
I'm not saying it happened. Just that it could have happened, and is as good an explanation as any for what happened.
If next week's sales report shows close to 15K sold, we'll know. If they reappear before the sales report is released, we'll know. Otherwise, we'll be free to keep speculating.
Again, if you are not doing it for yourself, just stop doing it. NCLT is not supposed to be an investment.
Precious metal prices might bail you out. Or not.
You seem to like it. So stop worrying about "pennies on the dollar." Your kid is going to be a doctor. He will be making his own money soon enough.
Thanks for the kind words. And, for the record, I am not judging. Just trying to help you get where you want to go.
Nope. There was never a problem ordering on Thursday, and the HHL was lifted at noon on Friday. Nothing will be getting kicked on this one for violating the HHL.
Depends on whether they made them yet or not. It would be unprecedented to make the coins, put them up for sale, and then pull them. It wouldn't be unheard of for them to decide not to make them.
But, I don't know.
I do know that in 2017, they sold 225,000 in half an hour. Then they're were returns, cancellations, etc. They put 60,000 back on sale. Sales only got to 215,000 and they stayed on "remind me" for months before they decided not to make the remaining 10,000.
I can't think of time they pulled them this quickly. But this has to be the busiest year ever for the numismatic division.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.