@bgr said: @countdougIas you ran the pickem last year right? before @galaxy27 took over. I'm happy to put up the prize for this season to the winner. $100. I'm not keen on doing the weekly posts though. any volunteers?
I guess I should volunteer to do my part since I participate every year and haven't done any work
I will do the weekly post this season
Gonna be some tough handicapping early in the season. For Super Bowl winning odds, as previously posted, only one team in single digits. The best values may be in the dogs.
@Darin said:
I was looking at the lines for week 1 and the Chargers are the heaviest favorite.
Haven't taken any close look at it yet, but it wouldn't surprise me if that line drifts up in the -12 or -13 range.
Gotta be careful with the NFL opening games. Seems almost every season there's at least one shocking upset. But right now, I don't think this particular game is going to be one of those.
Patriots bettors should remember, not always, but too often, historically it's been shown that Super Bowl losing teams often bounce the following season, for a variety of reasons.
Last season in a pre-season post, I predicted the Patriots might be the best long shot of all to win the Super Bowl. The odds were 60-1. Of course they didn't quite get there, but ya coulda made a very nice profit cashing-out before the Super Bowl. I liked the angle of Kraft firing that dreadful head coach, and hiring a good head coach, for a turnaround situation which happened. This season it's a tougher call as far as value is concerned, with the Patriots finishing second last season.
today was a blur for me but i read what you posted around lunchtime.......and i enjoyed it. i can't speak for anyone else, but there are countless times when i like something i've read, but the day gets in the way and pulls my brain away from conveying that like. on its face, clicking that mouse seems super easy. but try doing it every single time. raise your hand if you've ever done it in your head but -- for whatever reason -- didn't actually do so here. i guarantee you we're all guilty of it. i was today. in fact, i probably would have chimed in at some point with words that everyone could have lived without. 😅
as it pertains to week 1, i've been thinking long and hard about Minny-GB. i've been continuously running simulations in my head where that game is concerned, and i'm inching closer to the Vikings making a statement at home with their new quarterback. right now that game is a PK, which i love. i have a tendency to avoid the point spread at all cost. i may try to tweak that approach this season, but at least i won't have to worry about it with that particular game.
@countdougIas you ran the pickem last year right? before @galaxy27 took over. I'm happy to put up the prize for this season to the winner. $100. I'm not keen on doing the weekly posts though. any volunteers?
@2dueces ran it initially. i took over, but i've also done it for an entire season and i'm here to tell you that it eventually reaches a tedious stage. i wouldn't wish the whole enchilada on @perkdog or anyone else. if perk wants to do the first half, i'll be happy to pick up around week 9. and i'll also toss in a benjamin to up the stakes this season.
i also want to say one other thing. we've been doing this for a number of years. in the past, i was of the mindset that more is merrier. but after a while, something got stuck in my craw. and that something is people who only come up for air when this contest is about to launch. i'm talking about individuals who haven't posted a single time on the sports forum since last football season. perhaps i have a dick mindset, who knows. but i feel like it's a principled one. if the only time you're going to be active is when money is involved, those are optics i personally can no longer swallow. double d always plays but doesn't post in any other thread but his own. that definitely suffices, imo.
here's my dos centavos: you had to have posted at least one time anywhere in sports talk in 2026. if you can't clear that very low bar, you don't deserve to participate.
ultimately, i'll just wash my hands of that situation and defer to you guys where that's concerned
today was a blur for me but i read what you posted around lunchtime.......and i enjoyed it. i can't speak for anyone else, but there are countless times when i like something i've read, but the day gets in the way and pulls my brain away from conveying that like. on its face, clicking that mouse seems super easy. but try doing it every single time. raise your hand if you've ever done it in your head but -- for whatever reason -- didn't actually do so here. i guarantee you we're all guilty of it. i was today. in fact, i probably would have chimed in at some point with words that everyone could have lived without. 😅
i say leave it up next time 🤙
After looking at it a second time, I thought that it might appear like I was promoting a particular website. All I was trying to do was tell my friends here about what I think is a great offer, which places the odds greatly in your favor on this particular wager. Almost like a free lottery ticket. It's by far the best offer I've ever seen from any sports betting website.
I'll mention it again once the season begins, and I hit one, and illustrate the beauty of it with a screenshot as far as making money, which of course is the object of everyone here. 😊
I'll post it again when the season begins, and I hit one. I hit three last season and I only started playing it around mid-season. Wound-up accounting for around half my winnings during football season.
showing some love for the 4 guys who did me right last week. all played very well. (didn't bet on Si Woo Kim individually, but he was a part of my DK squad, along with the other 3.)
none of them have to beat Stifler......just everyone else
Here is a repost of one contest I did a long time ago:
Guess the correct day the Phillies clinch the NL East and win $100. All predictions must be in by the end of April. No edits, even if done before the end of April. Contest restricted to those with over 500 CU forum posts as of the day of the prediction, otherwise the prediction is void as far as the contest is concerned. First prediction of the correct day for anyone with over 500 posts is the winner. Remember, it's the day the Phillies clinch, which could be because of another team losing, not necessarily on a day the Phillies play.
The winner can then guess the correct day the Phillies win the NL pennant and the total prize amount will be $250. That prediction needs to be made before the first playoff game.
The winner can then guess the correct day the Phillies win the World Series and the total prize amount will be $500. That prediction needs to be made before the first World Series game.
Winner will be paid through PayPal, no other way - you must have a PayPal account.
Good luck!
Still 4 guys with a shot...
perkdog: September 21st
1420sports: September 23rd
mercurynut: Sept 28th
baseballfan: september 29
Well, the Phillies won the NL East on September 27 and there were no predictions of this date, so sorry to say there is no winner. Mercurynut was closest, missing by one day.
Frankly it's hard for me to believe that nobody chose the date of September 27 which was one day before the end of the season, when before the season began "everybody" was predicting a close, tight race to the end. Oh well, I tried to put together an interesting contest...sorry again that nobody won.
Steve
But some time thereafter the mods made it clear, for everyone not to post any more of these type of contests.
If I can make a suggestion - in the initial week, state that the prize money is for charity purposes, and I think it would be okay. The donations will be made in the winners name to his preferred charity. For example, I expect to win the contest, so the money can be contributed to the March of Dimes. 😊
I've read and from my experience, it seems that football is the most handicappable sport. Still isn't easy, but including the various goodies the books offer, at least you've got a chance.
The other sports are way tougher. No sense doing a dissertation on what we already know, the bad beats on a regular basis, etc. Suffice to say that perhaps staying away from the high juice props, and focusing on disciplined ML and spread wagering, O/U, etc, and taking advantage of every "goodie" the book offers, I think at least gives ya a chance to stay in the hunt. That's what I intend to do.
I've actually read that some players get banned for exploiting the comps that the online books offer. I can't verify that, and have no interest in doing so. But I guess some players may only bet when they receive the initial sign-up bonuses, and simply wait and don't make any bets unless a comp like a profit boost is offered. I could see whereby a book can't make enough money off that player or possibly even lose money, and simply ban the player. It's their website, they can do what they wish as they please.
The only sport I'm 100% sure is a first class sick joke is horse racing. The take out is so horrendous, especially on the exotics such as exactas and trifectas, it's not humanly possible to make money on that chit in the long run. John Scarne in his famous book, stated that 19 out of 20 players each day at the track, go home a loser. May not be quite that high in my opinion, but it certainly is close. Those few that do win that day, most wind-up giving it back next time or sometime later. And if they keep going back and bet enough, they give it all back including any nice score.
There was a player at the track I knew. Had a menial job and bet very little. He didn't even own a car. Took the bus to work and to the track. Lived with his mom. But one day out of nowhere, investing only a few bucks into it, he miraculously hits a pick-4 at Belmont for 9k. Never seen any gambler so happy. So he goes out and buys a cheap 3k car, and began upping his bets at the track. No joke, in about a month, his cheap car broke down and was unrepairable for the cost it would take to fix, and he squandered the rest on higher amount wagers at the track
So good luck to everyone during football season and hopefully we can put some hurtin' on some stinkin' books. Watch their stock price tumble a few points because of our wins. LOL
I would actually have bet that the NFL is one of the hardest leagues to handicap. I would look at the lower tier leagues - fewest eyes find the edge theory.
The problem with the NFL is the referees and the "Calls to New York" for official calls on replays blow away any handicapping edge someone might have
They know where the money is and act appropriately
I would say the only realistic way for NFL to be free of any influence is to quarantine referees and whoever the clown is in New York to make final calls on close calls so they have no idea where any money is on these games, that being said it's impossible and remains a 50/50 margin on every wager, you just got to hope the call in question fa ors your side of the action
@perkdog said:
The problem with the NFL is the referees and the "Calls to New York" for official calls on replays blow away any handicapping edge someone might have
They know where the money is and act appropriately
I would say the only realistic way for NFL to be free of any influence is to quarantine referees and whoever the clown is in New York to make final calls on close calls so they have no idea where any money is on these games, that being said it's impossible and remains a 50/50 margin on every wager, you just got to hope the call in question fa ors your side of the action
Just seems to me the physicality of the sport and the particular nature of its strategy, makes it easier to handicap. Perhaps it is for me because I know the sport so well. I can envision the game plan and particular way it will be coached, including the play calling throughout the game depending on various situations.
Of course as you state, the dam refs still have to make the right calls. Also the receivers have to catch the dam ball, and the runners have to not fumble the dam ball. And the star QB can't suddenly turn into a second string high school QB with stupid picks, etc. All that to me is the hard part, as of course it cannot usually be handicapped.
That being said, in my opinion, the breaks do even out over the course of a season. Of course when we're in the midst of a cold streak, and can't hit a game, it doesn't seem that way, and we tend to forget the nice hot streak we had before, including me. For example I was red hot starting out in that recent Soccer cup chit, hardly knew what I was doing, seemed I almost couldn't lose. Then around the final two weeks I couldn't hit a game, gave back around half the winnings, and decided to quit. Glad I did, I would have given it all back.
All I know is two seasons ago, on paper, I showed a profit during football season, and that was without profit boosts. Last season, for real money, I showed a decent percentage profit on football season which included the boosts and comps which definitely helped in the increased profit. Will that positive trend continue this season? I'll be the first to say I'm not 100% sure, however I'm optimistic. But if it doesn't work out then so be it. I'll just have to give up my fantasy of walking into the boss's office, and telling him, "Muck you, I'm sick and tired of this minimum wage job for the past thirty years. I quit. I'm gonna make a living on sports betting." 😉😎
@bgr said:
I would actually have bet that the NFL is one of the hardest leagues to handicap. I would look at the lower tier leagues - fewest eyes find the edge theory.
That's not a bad idea to at least look at it that way. You likely know who Doyle Brunson is, RIP. Doyle stated, close paraphrase, "It's not about winning or losing, it's about making the right decisions."
Took me a while to think about that, and make sense of it, but Doyle was absolutely right. Basically my take on it is Doyle was saying get the money in when the odds are in your favor, and you'll make money in the long run. As we know, 2,7os can crack pocket aces. I forget the exact math, but it's around twelve percent of the time whatever it is. So occasionally you're gonna get a bad beat with pocket aces. But getting your money in the pot in this situation with AA in the long run, and you will overall be a winner.
I try to use that idea in handicapping the games. Looking for an edge. Even if I really like a game, but if I don't see an edge there for my money, then I pass on it. I never play coin flops meaning trying to get lucky on any bet when you're up against the juice. It simply cannot work.
I'm not knocking going after those high playing parlays, props, etc, It sure is fun when ya hit one. However the basic problem is the juice is brutal on those type of bets. So I generally stay away from them. Preferring instead to grind and grab solid smaller percentage bets rather than shoot for the moon. But of course everybody has their own particular style and I never rooted against a gambler in my life, and never will.
Going back to that story about the guy who won the 9k. I think I was almost as happy for him as he was. He's a good guy and never uttered a bad word about anybody. He usually worked in a food store and sometimes would bring in a few bags of pistachios for us to enjoy. Very nice of him. We all, including me, after he hit the 9k, told him to put 5k into a CD that he couldn't touch, and spend what you need on the car which he said he was gonna buy. Or just buy a decent car with the 9k. Well he didn't listen, and as mentioned, sadly around a month later he blew all the money back including the junk car he bought.
Which begs the question…. which is worse, watching a preseason game or reading stevek’s preseason posts?
i was pleased to read this. you guys have been way too nice to each other lately. i was deathly afraid of hopping on here one day and reading that you two went and played keno together or something. i need acrimony. i need hair pulling. i need hand grenades lobbed from all directions.
Which begs the question…. which is worse, watching a preseason game or reading stevek’s preseason posts?
i was pleased to read this. you guys have been way too nice to each other lately. i was deathly afraid of hopping on here one day and reading that you two went and played keno together or something. i need acrimony. i need hair pulling. i need hand grenades lobbed from all directions.
Darin may still be hissed that Taylor Swift chose Travis over him. 😂
BTW - I'm not going to get into a silly food fight in this thread. This thread is too good. But if Darin or anyone else wishes to muck it up, I'm not joining in. I'll just block ya - fine by me. So stay on topic, sports betting, or please don't post here. Capiche?
as we embark upon another NFL season, i just mind to remind everyone that there are no sure things. anything can happen at any time. i say this because, as i type this, Scottie Scheffler is tied for last place at the BMW, a week after lapping the field. at the opposite end of the spectrum we have Rory McIlroy. he hasn't played much lately and has been completely out of sorts when he has (last week he almost finished last). currently he is tied for first place.
last week, Scottie bested Rory by 25 shots.
right now:
McIlroy: -6
Scheffler: +3
i know, it's early. things could (and probably will) dramatically change over the next 54+ holes. but as of this moment i'm so taken aback. just please keep in mind this coming season that absolutely anything can happen. the moment you allow the words "sure thing" to creep into your mind, remove them.
kindly scroll to 9:30 and watch until the end. it's the 9th inning of St Louis-Cincinnati today. Reds up 5-4 with two outs in the top of the 9th. Cards with two guys on base. JJ Wetherholt comes up to the plate. he hits a routine fly ball to center. as you watch the center fielder camp underneath it to end the game, imagine a sportsbook giving you quick odds. they're offering -1,000,000 that there will not be more than 9 additional runs scored in that game. let's say you're a quadrillionaire and completely bored. would you drop a mil to win the easiest benjamin of your life?
as we embark upon another NFL season, i just mind to remind everyone that there are no sure things. anything can happen at any time. i say this because, as i type this, Scottie Scheffler is tied for last place at the BMW, a week after lapping the field. at the opposite end of the spectrum we have Rory McIlroy. he hasn't played much lately and has been completely out of sorts when he has (last week he almost finished last). currently he is tied for first place.
last week, Scottie bested Rory by 25 shots.
right now:
McIlroy: -6
Scheffler: +3
i know, it's early. things could (and probably will) dramatically change over the next 54+ holes. but as of this moment i'm so taken aback. just please keep in mind this coming season that absolutely anything can happen. the moment you allow the words "sure thing" to creep into your mind, remove them.
I hear ya, and don't disagree at all. My view is what differentiates football, and I'll focus on one aspect, is the number of players on the field. Say a team is far superior to another team, and the ML seems like a lock. But the QB is having an off day passing say in the first quarter. A good coach can see this and make the necessary adjustments. He can change the passing game to short more easily completable passes and/or focus more on the run.
One of my favorite angles last season was if I felt a heavy favorite was a lock to win, but I wasn't getting the right ML odds, I patiently waited for the dog to score a TD first, and then place a ML wager on the favorite. I can't recall losing one all season. Sometimes there's a lot of games going on, especially NCAA games on Saturday, and I can't closely follow them all. But the ones i thought were favorite ML locks, but the value was too low on the ML, a few times the dog quickly got out to a 14 point lead, and the pre-game favorite was still favored, but the ML was quite juicy. I played around three or four of those and hit every one. One was close, I recall the favorite only won the game by 4 points, but a win is a win with the ML and I got the nice value I wanted.
I've got a lot more to say about this, but I'll save it for another time. Respecting the short attention span of one member here. And also realizing that just because this angle worked for me like a charm last season, doesn't necessarily mean it will work this season as far as profit is concerned. We shall see.
kindly scroll to 9:30 and watch until the end. it's the 9th inning of St Louis-Cincinnati today. Reds up 5-4 with two outs in the top of the 9th. Cards with two guys on base. JJ Wetherholt comes up to the plate. he hits a routine fly ball to center. as you watch the center fielder camp underneath it to end the game, imagine a sportsbook giving you quick odds. they're offering -1,000,000 that there will not be more than 9 additional runs scored in that game. let's say you're a quadrillionaire and completely bored. would you drop a mil to win the easiest benjamin of your life?
Usually it's a left or right fielder who drops a ball like that. Rarely a center fielder who normally is the best fielding outfielder.
Which begs the question…. which is worse, watching a preseason game or reading stevek’s preseason posts?
i was pleased to read this. you guys have been way too nice to each other lately. i was deathly afraid of hopping on here one day and reading that you two went and played keno together or something. i need acrimony. i need hair pulling. i need hand grenades lobbed from all directions.
Thanks!
When Stevek gets in that zone where every random thought in his head turns up in written form on this thread i feel the need to act.
Which begs the question…. which is worse, watching a preseason game or reading stevek’s preseason posts?
i was pleased to read this. you guys have been way too nice to each other lately. i was deathly afraid of hopping on here one day and reading that you two went and played keno together or something. i need acrimony. i need hair pulling. i need hand grenades lobbed from all directions.
Thanks!
When Stevek gets in that zone where every random thought in his head turns up in written form on this thread i feel the need to act.
Darin the old wise one. Noble and esteemed keeper of the thread - in his mind.
No worries, I'm not gonna block you. You're too funny. 😂
Which begs the question…. which is worse, watching a preseason game or reading stevek’s preseason posts?
i was pleased to read this. you guys have been way too nice to each other lately. i was deathly afraid of hopping on here one day and reading that you two went and played keno together or something. i need acrimony. i need hair pulling. i need hand grenades lobbed from all directions.
And I quote "We shall see"😀
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
Which begs the question…. which is worse, watching a preseason game or reading stevek’s preseason posts?
i was pleased to read this. you guys have been way too nice to each other lately. i was deathly afraid of hopping on here one day and reading that you two went and played keno together or something. i need acrimony. i need hair pulling. i need hand grenades lobbed from all directions.
And I quote "We shall see"😀
I saw the over/under on the date Andy Reid gets fired this season.
According to a recent Gallup poll since 2016, inclusive of all gambling, the industry has gone from 64% participation to 45%. The biggest hits were to the Lottery market and on site casino visitation. On site casino visitation went from 26% to 14%.
Come on people let's get out there and reverse this disturbing trend.😀
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
According to a recent Gallup poll since 2016, inclusive of all gambling, the industry has gone from 64% participation to 45%. The biggest hits were to the Lottery market and on site casino visitation. On site casino visitation went from 26% to 14%.
Come on people let's get out there and reverse this disturbing trend.😀
There are some Youtube videos of Vegas at certain times being like a ghost town when say twenty years or so ago they would have been packed. Part of it is their own greed. I've read where some of the casinos charge $9 for a lousy bottle of water.
Haven't seen many success stories posted lately regarding nice wins? Don't worry, help is on the way. Football season soon to begin and I think we're all going to have a good season.
But if not, maybe we can get together at the homeless shelter, and play poker for matchsticks.
First FBS football game of the season is this Saturday with UNC, featuring of course Bill Belichick.
FCS begins on Thursday with a bunch of games. Looks like might be a number of easy pickings. May try a multi-team parlay. Should be some good profit boosts offered.
BTW - Youtube has a video of Belichick doing an interview on the Sean Hannity podcast. I plan on watching it, when I've got nothing better to do. LOL
@stevek said:
First FBS football game of the season is this Saturday with UNC, featuring of course Bill Belichick.
FCS begins on Thursday with a bunch of games. Looks like might be a number of easy pickings. May try a multi-team parlay. Should be some good profit boosts offered.
BTW - Youtube has a video of Belichick doing an interview on the Sean Hannity podcast. I plan on watching it, when I've got nothing better to do. LOL
@stevek said:
Haven't seen many success stories posted lately regarding nice wins? Don't worry, help is on the way. Football season soon to begin and I think we're all going to have a good season.
But if not, maybe we can get together at the homeless shelter, and play poker for matchsticks.
@stevek said:
Haven't seen many success stories posted lately regarding nice wins? Don't worry, help is on the way. Football season soon to begin and I think we're all going to have a good season.
But if not, maybe we can get together at the homeless shelter, and play poker for matchsticks.
I haven't been betting, waiting on 🏈
Wise move in my opinion. I just can't seem to gain any traction with MLB. Since I'm not looking to lose money or waste time trading dollars, I figured I'd end it for now, and revisit it next season.
I realize some disagree with me on being able to win money betting football, but with football it seems I'm able to learn from my mistakes, and it works making handicapping adjustments towards profitability. With MLB the adjustments, at least those I've tried, have proven futile thus far.
@stevek said:
First FBS football game of the season is this Saturday with UNC, featuring of course Bill Belichick.
FCS begins on Thursday with a bunch of games. Looks like might be a number of easy pickings. May try a multi-team parlay. Should be some good profit boosts offered.
BTW - Youtube has a video of Belichick doing an interview on the Sean Hannity podcast. I plan on watching it, when I've got nothing better to do. LOL
I think without even looking I'm going to bet against hoodie and North Carolina
I'm looking at TCU in that game. Either the TCU ML or spread, or no bet.
Frankly, I think Belichick is probably steaming that he wasn't offered a NFL job, with all the openings that were available. I doubt if he spent much time recruiting or whatever over the summer with UNC. Maybe I'm wrong, we shall see on Saturday. But in any event, I agree the value on that game is with TCU.
@stevek said:
First FBS football game of the season is this Saturday with UNC, featuring of course Bill Belichick.
FCS begins on Thursday with a bunch of games. Looks like might be a number of easy pickings. May try a multi-team parlay. Should be some good profit boosts offered.
BTW - Youtube has a video of Belichick doing an interview on the Sean Hannity podcast. I plan on watching it, when I've got nothing better to do. LOL
I think without even looking I'm going to bet against hoodie and North Carolina
I'm looking at TCU in that game. Either the TCU ML or spread, or no bet.
Frankly, I think Belichick is probably steaming that he wasn't offered a NFL job, with all the openings that were available. I doubt if he spent much time recruiting or whatever over the summer with UNC. Maybe I'm wrong, we shall see on Saturday. But in any event, I agree the value on that game is with TCU.
I don't know, I think he has resigned himself to being done with the NFL, I think he took the NC job just so his weirdo kid can take over the job when he retires, I think there is a provision for that in his contract
@stevek said:
Haven't seen many success stories posted lately regarding nice wins? Don't worry, help is on the way. Football season soon to begin and I think we're all going to have a good season.
But if not, maybe we can get together at the homeless shelter, and play poker for matchsticks.
I haven't been betting, waiting on 🏈
Wise move in my opinion. I just can't seem to gain any traction with MLB. Since I'm not looking to lose money or waste time trading dollars, I figured I'd end it for now, and revisit it next season.
I realize some disagree with me on being able to win money betting football, but with football it seems I'm able to learn from my mistakes, and it works making handicapping adjustments towards profitability. With MLB the adjustments, at least those I've tried, have proven futile thus far.
@stevek said:
Haven't seen many success stories posted lately regarding nice wins? Don't worry, help is on the way. Football season soon to begin and I think we're all going to have a good season.
But if not, maybe we can get together at the homeless shelter, and play poker for matchsticks.
I haven't been betting, waiting on 🏈
Wise move in my opinion. I just can't seem to gain any traction with MLB. Since I'm not looking to lose money or waste time trading dollars, I figured I'd end it for now, and revisit it next season.
I realize some disagree with me on being able to win money betting football, but with football it seems I'm able to learn from my mistakes, and it works making handicapping adjustments towards profitability. With MLB the adjustments, at least those I've tried, have proven futile thus far.
MLB is insanely unpredictable day to day
I've tried doing the math every which way but loose. Nothing seems to work. Even with the boosts, I wasn't getting enough of an edge to be profitable or worth my time trying.
I may try MLB again during the playoffs. I did have some success with the Dodgers in the playoffs last season, especially the World Series games.
In the middle of July I had $55 in bonus bets and used them on Philly to win their division. Shortly after that they started losing more ground to the Braves and I think they were back about 8 games. Now the last 10 games the Braves are 3-7 and the Phillies 9-1 so it’s gotten interesting. Still have a chance to win those bonus bets. Great comeback today. 🥳
I quit betting on baseball games because even I have gotten excited about the start of NFL. Not about to bet on any preseason games so I’m just waiting around.
Comments
Gonna be some tough handicapping early in the season. For Super Bowl winning odds, as previously posted, only one team in single digits. The best values may be in the dogs.
Haven't taken any close look at it yet, but it wouldn't surprise me if that line drifts up in the -12 or -13 range.
Gotta be careful with the NFL opening games. Seems almost every season there's at least one shocking upset. But right now, I don't think this particular game is going to be one of those.
Patriots bettors should remember, not always, but too often, historically it's been shown that Super Bowl losing teams often bounce the following season, for a variety of reasons.
Last season in a pre-season post, I predicted the Patriots might be the best long shot of all to win the Super Bowl. The odds were 60-1. Of course they didn't quite get there, but ya coulda made a very nice profit cashing-out before the Super Bowl. I liked the angle of Kraft firing that dreadful head coach, and hiring a good head coach, for a turnaround situation which happened. This season it's a tougher call as far as value is concerned, with the Patriots finishing second last season.
Well, I guess nobody liked it. 🤷♂️
today was a blur for me but i read what you posted around lunchtime.......and i enjoyed it. i can't speak for anyone else, but there are countless times when i like something i've read, but the day gets in the way and pulls my brain away from conveying that like. on its face, clicking that mouse seems super easy. but try doing it every single time. raise your hand if you've ever done it in your head but -- for whatever reason -- didn't actually do so here. i guarantee you we're all guilty of it. i was today. in fact, i probably would have chimed in at some point with words that everyone could have lived without. 😅
i say leave it up next time 🤙
as it pertains to week 1, i've been thinking long and hard about Minny-GB. i've been continuously running simulations in my head where that game is concerned, and i'm inching closer to the Vikings making a statement at home with their new quarterback. right now that game is a PK, which i love. i have a tendency to avoid the point spread at all cost. i may try to tweak that approach this season, but at least i won't have to worry about it with that particular game.
@2dueces ran it initially. i took over, but i've also done it for an entire season and i'm here to tell you that it eventually reaches a tedious stage. i wouldn't wish the whole enchilada on @perkdog or anyone else. if perk wants to do the first half, i'll be happy to pick up around week 9. and i'll also toss in a benjamin to up the stakes this season.
i also want to say one other thing. we've been doing this for a number of years. in the past, i was of the mindset that more is merrier. but after a while, something got stuck in my craw. and that something is people who only come up for air when this contest is about to launch. i'm talking about individuals who haven't posted a single time on the sports forum since last football season. perhaps i have a dick mindset, who knows. but i feel like it's a principled one. if the only time you're going to be active is when money is involved, those are optics i personally can no longer swallow. double d always plays but doesn't post in any other thread but his own. that definitely suffices, imo.
here's my dos centavos: you had to have posted at least one time anywhere in sports talk in 2026. if you can't clear that very low bar, you don't deserve to participate.
ultimately, i'll just wash my hands of that situation and defer to you guys where that's concerned
Liked what?
After looking at it a second time, I thought that it might appear like I was promoting a particular website. All I was trying to do was tell my friends here about what I think is a great offer, which places the odds greatly in your favor on this particular wager. Almost like a free lottery ticket. It's by far the best offer I've ever seen from any sports betting website.
I'll mention it again once the season begins, and I hit one, and illustrate the beauty of it with a screenshot as far as making money, which of course is the object of everyone here. 😊
@stevek
i didn't perceive it that way. as far as i'm concerned, we can talk about anything here -- even things that have zilch to do with gambling.
I feel bad for mixing up count and deuces now. Oops.
I'll post it again when the season begins, and I hit one. I hit three last season and I only started playing it around mid-season. Wound-up accounting for around half my winnings during football season.
showing some love for the 4 guys who did me right last week. all played very well. (didn't bet on Si Woo Kim individually, but he was a part of my DK squad, along with the other 3.)
none of them have to beat Stifler......just everyone else
-6634.09
Here is a repost of one contest I did a long time ago:
Guess the correct day the Phillies clinch the NL East and win $100. All predictions must be in by the end of April. No edits, even if done before the end of April. Contest restricted to those with over 500 CU forum posts as of the day of the prediction, otherwise the prediction is void as far as the contest is concerned. First prediction of the correct day for anyone with over 500 posts is the winner. Remember, it's the day the Phillies clinch, which could be because of another team losing, not necessarily on a day the Phillies play.
The winner can then guess the correct day the Phillies win the NL pennant and the total prize amount will be $250. That prediction needs to be made before the first playoff game.
The winner can then guess the correct day the Phillies win the World Series and the total prize amount will be $500. That prediction needs to be made before the first World Series game.
Winner will be paid through PayPal, no other way - you must have a PayPal account.
Good luck!
Still 4 guys with a shot...
perkdog: September 21st
1420sports: September 23rd
mercurynut: Sept 28th
baseballfan: september 29
Well, the Phillies won the NL East on September 27 and there were no predictions of this date, so sorry to say there is no winner. Mercurynut was closest, missing by one day.
Frankly it's hard for me to believe that nobody chose the date of September 27 which was one day before the end of the season, when before the season began "everybody" was predicting a close, tight race to the end. Oh well, I tried to put together an interesting contest...sorry again that nobody won.
Steve
But some time thereafter the mods made it clear, for everyone not to post any more of these type of contests.
If I can make a suggestion - in the initial week, state that the prize money is for charity purposes, and I think it would be okay. The donations will be made in the winners name to his preferred charity. For example, I expect to win the contest, so the money can be contributed to the March of Dimes. 😊
Just a banner day yesterday, I did such a good job defining what a loser is
I've read and from my experience, it seems that football is the most handicappable sport. Still isn't easy, but including the various goodies the books offer, at least you've got a chance.
The other sports are way tougher. No sense doing a dissertation on what we already know, the bad beats on a regular basis, etc. Suffice to say that perhaps staying away from the high juice props, and focusing on disciplined ML and spread wagering, O/U, etc, and taking advantage of every "goodie" the book offers, I think at least gives ya a chance to stay in the hunt. That's what I intend to do.
I've actually read that some players get banned for exploiting the comps that the online books offer. I can't verify that, and have no interest in doing so. But I guess some players may only bet when they receive the initial sign-up bonuses, and simply wait and don't make any bets unless a comp like a profit boost is offered. I could see whereby a book can't make enough money off that player or possibly even lose money, and simply ban the player. It's their website, they can do what they wish as they please.
The only sport I'm 100% sure is a first class sick joke is horse racing. The take out is so horrendous, especially on the exotics such as exactas and trifectas, it's not humanly possible to make money on that chit in the long run. John Scarne in his famous book, stated that 19 out of 20 players each day at the track, go home a loser. May not be quite that high in my opinion, but it certainly is close. Those few that do win that day, most wind-up giving it back next time or sometime later. And if they keep going back and bet enough, they give it all back including any nice score.
There was a player at the track I knew. Had a menial job and bet very little. He didn't even own a car. Took the bus to work and to the track. Lived with his mom. But one day out of nowhere, investing only a few bucks into it, he miraculously hits a pick-4 at Belmont for 9k. Never seen any gambler so happy. So he goes out and buys a cheap 3k car, and began upping his bets at the track. No joke, in about a month, his cheap car broke down and was unrepairable for the cost it would take to fix, and he squandered the rest on higher amount wagers at the track
So good luck to everyone during football season and hopefully we can put some hurtin' on some stinkin' books. Watch their stock price tumble a few points because of our wins. LOL
I would actually have bet that the NFL is one of the hardest leagues to handicap. I would look at the lower tier leagues - fewest eyes find the edge theory.
The problem with the NFL is the referees and the "Calls to New York" for official calls on replays blow away any handicapping edge someone might have
They know where the money is and act appropriately
I would say the only realistic way for NFL to be free of any influence is to quarantine referees and whoever the clown is in New York to make final calls on close calls so they have no idea where any money is on these games, that being said it's impossible and remains a 50/50 margin on every wager, you just got to hope the call in question fa ors your side of the action
Just seems to me the physicality of the sport and the particular nature of its strategy, makes it easier to handicap. Perhaps it is for me because I know the sport so well. I can envision the game plan and particular way it will be coached, including the play calling throughout the game depending on various situations.
Of course as you state, the dam refs still have to make the right calls. Also the receivers have to catch the dam ball, and the runners have to not fumble the dam ball. And the star QB can't suddenly turn into a second string high school QB with stupid picks, etc. All that to me is the hard part, as of course it cannot usually be handicapped.
That being said, in my opinion, the breaks do even out over the course of a season. Of course when we're in the midst of a cold streak, and can't hit a game, it doesn't seem that way, and we tend to forget the nice hot streak we had before, including me. For example I was red hot starting out in that recent Soccer cup chit, hardly knew what I was doing, seemed I almost couldn't lose. Then around the final two weeks I couldn't hit a game, gave back around half the winnings, and decided to quit. Glad I did, I would have given it all back.
All I know is two seasons ago, on paper, I showed a profit during football season, and that was without profit boosts. Last season, for real money, I showed a decent percentage profit on football season which included the boosts and comps which definitely helped in the increased profit. Will that positive trend continue this season? I'll be the first to say I'm not 100% sure, however I'm optimistic. But if it doesn't work out then so be it. I'll just have to give up my fantasy of walking into the boss's office, and telling him, "Muck you, I'm sick and tired of this minimum wage job for the past thirty years. I quit. I'm gonna make a living on sports betting." 😉😎
Which begs the question…. which is worse, watching a preseason game or reading stevek’s preseason posts?
That's not a bad idea to at least look at it that way. You likely know who Doyle Brunson is, RIP. Doyle stated, close paraphrase, "It's not about winning or losing, it's about making the right decisions."
Took me a while to think about that, and make sense of it, but Doyle was absolutely right. Basically my take on it is Doyle was saying get the money in when the odds are in your favor, and you'll make money in the long run. As we know, 2,7os can crack pocket aces. I forget the exact math, but it's around twelve percent of the time whatever it is. So occasionally you're gonna get a bad beat with pocket aces. But getting your money in the pot in this situation with AA in the long run, and you will overall be a winner.
I try to use that idea in handicapping the games. Looking for an edge. Even if I really like a game, but if I don't see an edge there for my money, then I pass on it. I never play coin flops meaning trying to get lucky on any bet when you're up against the juice. It simply cannot work.
I'm not knocking going after those high playing parlays, props, etc, It sure is fun when ya hit one. However the basic problem is the juice is brutal on those type of bets. So I generally stay away from them. Preferring instead to grind and grab solid smaller percentage bets rather than shoot for the moon. But of course everybody has their own particular style and I never rooted against a gambler in my life, and never will.
Going back to that story about the guy who won the 9k. I think I was almost as happy for him as he was. He's a good guy and never uttered a bad word about anybody. He usually worked in a food store and sometimes would bring in a few bags of pistachios for us to enjoy. Very nice of him. We all, including me, after he hit the 9k, told him to put 5k into a CD that he couldn't touch, and spend what you need on the car which he said he was gonna buy. Or just buy a decent car with the 9k. Well he didn't listen, and as mentioned, sadly around a month later he blew all the money back including the junk car he bought.
i was pleased to read this. you guys have been way too nice to each other lately. i was deathly afraid of hopping on here one day and reading that you two went and played keno together or something. i need acrimony. i need hair pulling. i need hand grenades lobbed from all directions.
This is the way.
Darin may still be hissed that Taylor Swift chose Travis over him. 😂
BTW - I'm not going to get into a silly food fight in this thread. This thread is too good. But if Darin or anyone else wishes to muck it up, I'm not joining in. I'll just block ya - fine by me. So stay on topic, sports betting, or please don't post here. Capiche?
public service announcement
as we embark upon another NFL season, i just mind to remind everyone that there are no sure things. anything can happen at any time. i say this because, as i type this, Scottie Scheffler is tied for last place at the BMW, a week after lapping the field. at the opposite end of the spectrum we have Rory McIlroy. he hasn't played much lately and has been completely out of sorts when he has (last week he almost finished last). currently he is tied for first place.
last week, Scottie bested Rory by 25 shots.
right now:
McIlroy: -6
Scheffler: +3
i know, it's early. things could (and probably will) dramatically change over the next 54+ holes. but as of this moment i'm so taken aback. just please keep in mind this coming season that absolutely anything can happen. the moment you allow the words "sure thing" to creep into your mind, remove them.
@Darin
@perkdog
@stevek
@bgr
@countdougIas
kindly scroll to 9:30 and watch until the end. it's the 9th inning of St Louis-Cincinnati today. Reds up 5-4 with two outs in the top of the 9th. Cards with two guys on base. JJ Wetherholt comes up to the plate. he hits a routine fly ball to center. as you watch the center fielder camp underneath it to end the game, imagine a sportsbook giving you quick odds. they're offering -1,000,000 that there will not be more than 9 additional runs scored in that game. let's say you're a quadrillionaire and completely bored. would you drop a mil to win the easiest benjamin of your life?
I hear ya, and don't disagree at all. My view is what differentiates football, and I'll focus on one aspect, is the number of players on the field. Say a team is far superior to another team, and the ML seems like a lock. But the QB is having an off day passing say in the first quarter. A good coach can see this and make the necessary adjustments. He can change the passing game to short more easily completable passes and/or focus more on the run.
One of my favorite angles last season was if I felt a heavy favorite was a lock to win, but I wasn't getting the right ML odds, I patiently waited for the dog to score a TD first, and then place a ML wager on the favorite. I can't recall losing one all season. Sometimes there's a lot of games going on, especially NCAA games on Saturday, and I can't closely follow them all. But the ones i thought were favorite ML locks, but the value was too low on the ML, a few times the dog quickly got out to a 14 point lead, and the pre-game favorite was still favored, but the ML was quite juicy. I played around three or four of those and hit every one. One was close, I recall the favorite only won the game by 4 points, but a win is a win with the ML and I got the nice value I wanted.
I've got a lot more to say about this, but I'll save it for another time. Respecting the short attention span of one member here. And also realizing that just because this angle worked for me like a charm last season, doesn't necessarily mean it will work this season as far as profit is concerned. We shall see.
Usually it's a left or right fielder who drops a ball like that. Rarely a center fielder who normally is the best fielding outfielder.
What a sick way to lose a ballgame.
Thanks!
When Stevek gets in that zone where every random thought in his head turns up in written form on this thread i feel the need to act.
Darin the old wise one. Noble and esteemed keeper of the thread - in his mind.
No worries, I'm not gonna block you. You're too funny. 😂
And I quote "We shall see"😀
I saw the over/under on the date Andy Reid gets fired this season.
I took the under. Max-bet
Located 500 cents on Rory Sunday BMW event. 13-1.
According to a recent Gallup poll since 2016, inclusive of all gambling, the industry has gone from 64% participation to 45%. The biggest hits were to the Lottery market and on site casino visitation. On site casino visitation went from 26% to 14%.
Come on people let's get out there and reverse this disturbing trend.😀
There are some Youtube videos of Vegas at certain times being like a ghost town when say twenty years or so ago they would have been packed. Part of it is their own greed. I've read where some of the casinos charge $9 for a lousy bottle of water.
Haven't seen many success stories posted lately regarding nice wins? Don't worry, help is on the way. Football season soon to begin and I think we're all going to have a good season.
But if not, maybe we can get together at the homeless shelter, and play poker for matchsticks.
First FBS football game of the season is this Saturday with UNC, featuring of course Bill Belichick.
FCS begins on Thursday with a bunch of games. Looks like might be a number of easy pickings. May try a multi-team parlay. Should be some good profit boosts offered.
BTW - Youtube has a video of Belichick doing an interview on the Sean Hannity podcast. I plan on watching it, when I've got nothing better to do. LOL
I think without even looking I'm going to bet against hoodie and North Carolina
I haven't been betting, waiting on 🏈
Wise move in my opinion. I just can't seem to gain any traction with MLB. Since I'm not looking to lose money or waste time trading dollars, I figured I'd end it for now, and revisit it next season.
I realize some disagree with me on being able to win money betting football, but with football it seems I'm able to learn from my mistakes, and it works making handicapping adjustments towards profitability. With MLB the adjustments, at least those I've tried, have proven futile thus far.
I'm looking at TCU in that game. Either the TCU ML or spread, or no bet.
Frankly, I think Belichick is probably steaming that he wasn't offered a NFL job, with all the openings that were available. I doubt if he spent much time recruiting or whatever over the summer with UNC. Maybe I'm wrong, we shall see on Saturday. But in any event, I agree the value on that game is with TCU.
I don't know, I think he has resigned himself to being done with the NFL, I think he took the NC job just so his weirdo kid can take over the job when he retires, I think there is a provision for that in his contract
MLB is insanely unpredictable day to day
I've tried doing the math every which way but loose. Nothing seems to work. Even with the boosts, I wasn't getting enough of an edge to be profitable or worth my time trying.
I may try MLB again during the playoffs. I did have some success with the Dodgers in the playoffs last season, especially the World Series games.
Phillies down 4-0 bottom of the ninth, two outs. Phillies tie the game, then win the game on a walk-off homer.
i hope someone bet on the Phillies today
and
i hope no one bet on the Cardinals today
bottom of the 9th, two outs, man on second, Phillies down to their final out, St Louis winning 4-0
final score: Philly 6, St Louis 4
Phillies were down to their final strike 3 times
edit: you beat me to it Steve. unreal bottom of the 9th.
Sports betting may be classified as a sickness. But betting on MLB may have its own special designation. 🤔
In the middle of July I had $55 in bonus bets and used them on Philly to win their division. Shortly after that they started losing more ground to the Braves and I think they were back about 8 games. Now the last 10 games the Braves are 3-7 and the Phillies 9-1 so it’s gotten interesting. Still have a chance to win those bonus bets. Great comeback today. 🥳
I quit betting on baseball games because even I have gotten excited about the start of NFL. Not about to bet on any preseason games so I’m just waiting around.
i was searching for an explanation and i found it
no excuses for my bet on Scheffler, but it sure would have been nice to be privy to this information before i placed it
in this same article he goes on to say, "at the beginning of the week i could barely grip a club"