$1 1892 S - A Short Story
lilolme
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$1 1892 S - A Short Story (of valuation and...)
Wow, I was cleaning up my Draft folder and found this. I probably started it a few years ago but do recall coming back and updating several times. Guess I forgot about it after that. I did not attempt to check all the links and update to any new data but figured a few people might still get something out of it.
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This 1892 S has sold a few times at auction. I thought it was a good example of how it can be difficult to determine a value on a coin that is thinly traded at auction and/or generally not listed for private sale. Or how auction results can vary. Additionally it shows what I will call 'Don't be surprised by the crackout'. So I spent some time putting together the 'story'.
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To start the cert page indicates this 1892 S MS64 sold at Heritage in June 2006 for $97,750. Link below. While that is several years before its next appearance I thought it was worth noting.
https://coins.ha.com/itm/morgan-dollars/1892-s-1-ms64-pcgs-the-1892-s-was-produced-to-the-tune-of-1-200-000-business-strikes-based/a/408-2579.s?hdnJumpToLot=1&x=0&y=0
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Next here is a screenshot of the current pcgs coinfacts page showing the auctions for the 1892 S MS64 (and 63 to 65) and the MS64 are all CAC approved (looks like last non-cac was in 2009 but not shown in this list). This is showing the infrequency of the MS64 auctions, at least until the subject coin entered into the auction rounds again (it is 3 of the 5 pcgs shown).
This 1892 S went to auction at Legend in July 2017. It sold for an unexpected $293,750 (all in - $250.K hammer). This was against a PCGS price guide at that time of $110.K. Link and obverse slab photo below (more at link).
https://legendauctions.hibid.com/lot/32715531
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So now what is the value of the 1892 S MS64 (or this coin)?
And considering that none had sold at auction since 2012 - Sometimes it may be said the new auction result is the new value.
As seen below from the PCGS price guide history, PCGS were not quick to act to increase the price guide value after this auction result. Perhaps considered to be just too much and an anomaly or one off. The price guide was increased several months later in March and May of 2018 to $130.K
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This 1892 S then showed up at Heritage in January 2019. After the previous result just a year and a half earlier, this time it sold for about half as much, $156.K (all in - $130.K hammer). This was against a price guide at the time of $130.K . Link and obverse slab photo below (more at link).
https://coins.ha.com/itm/morgan-dollars/silver-and-related-dollars/1892-s-1-ms64-pcgs-cac/a/1291-4576.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515
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Is this the value of the 1892 S MS64? About half of the previous auction record.
From the graph above:
The PCGS price guide this time was quickly moved up to the auction record or to $150.K (Feb. 2019).
But then the price guide was gradually adjusted up from Feb. to Oct. 2019 to $185.K.
At this point some things change and where the 'crackout' part of the story comes in.
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I tried to figure a way to write this without ummm... well perhaps you know but hope this works.
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After the 1892 S Jan 2019 HA auction it was 'cracked out' and 'lightened'. The 1892 S was then graded by PCGS as an MS64 again (see below). I am sure there were hopes for at least a 'plus' higher grade. I don't know how many times the coin was 'tried'.
Note: The old cert number is still active.
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The 'new' (after 'lightened') 1892 S was sent to CAC where it was Approved. Additionally the 'new' 1892 S MS64 was added to and shown in a PCGS registry set.
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The registry set collector must of had a change in direction or similar because the registry set, along with the 'new' 1892 S, was back at Heritage to be auctioned about 8 months later. In Sept. 2019 the 'new' 1892 S sold for $192.K (all in - $160.K hammer). Link and obverse slab photo below (more at link).
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So is this the value of the 1892 S MS64?
How much does the new look change things?
Is it within the tolerance of the 8 month prior auction considering typical auction variations?
Interesting it sold for 192.K and the PCGS price guide had been gradually increased just prior (as noted above) to 185.K.
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End of story for this 1892 S.
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Looking today, another 1892 S MS64 CAC with some toning sold at Stacks June 2022 for $162.K (all in). This is essentially the same as the previous auction (Jan 2019) of $156.K before the 'new' 1892 S. So maybe the 'new' look helped. Wasn't this 2022 post covid a stronger market?
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The last auction (162.K) would have been with a PCGS price guide of $215.K (same as today's Jan 2025 value) as PCGS had bumped the value twice since the 2019 'new' 1892 S sale and value. The GS CAC is currently 180.K (CPG 216.K) based on the tiny history graph (on phone) it was either just under this or had just been increased to slightly over. Either way the 162.K did not make it up to any price guide numbers.
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Link and obverse slab photo below (more at link).
https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-WUTIR/1892-s-morgan-silver-dollar-ms-64-pcgs-cac
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hYCRaWPlTIE Sophie Lloyd, guitar shred cover of Panama (Van Halen)
https://youtube.com/watch?v=dOV1VrDuUm4 Ted Nugent, Hibernation, Live 1976
RLJ 1958 - 2023
Comments
Thanks for putting all this together. Definitely not in my price range to worry about such a drop in price. Great looking coin. So the person who lost the 2017 auction was the winner.
They both look better than MS64 in terms of contact marks.
Bidders on the last (most toned) example might have had some aversion to the dark area on the wing.
Coins like these, even in the same grade, are not alike. And neither is the sale venue.
Even the photographs of the same coin can vary from one sale to another.
So I am not surprised by a variation in realized prices.
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I worked a show with John Roberts, our chief variety attributor and VAM author/expert. A guy showed up at the ANACS table to see John, and showed us an 1892-S Morgan, PCGS MS-63. After we both examined it, John said, "thanks for platinum night." It still amazes me how a coin so common in the lower grades is such a major rarity in the high grades.
An interesting set of results. I agree with @dcarr about the darker area on the wing potentially hurting the last example.
The original example appears to look better after the dip (at least to me).
The 1892-S looks real nice in its new holder.
As far as what it will bring at auction - ymmv. If rich bidders get in a bid war then should do well.
Not to be trivial, but a fairly rare widget is "worth" what a willing buyer, under no compulsion to buy, is will to pay a willing seller, under no compulsion to sell.
That is, obviously, very rarified territory, and I suspect that the number of people who can play at that ultra-deep end is very small. And those people are not as, uh, sensitive to perturbations in price as, say, I am. So it's not a stable market--when a deep-pocketed individual really wants a coin, the sky is the limit; if a particular acution didn't attract a couple of such people, the price will be much lower than if there were two (or more) such people fighting for it.
It's an interesting piece of detective work, but what it shows doesn't surprise me in the least.
I could not have said it any better! Most likely worse.