@jmlanzaf said:
It would be very unusual for demand for a Mint release to suddenly increase.
You mean like what happened with the gold buffalo fractional coins? No, it wasn't unusual.
If supply dries up, then demand raises prices.
If a proof silver eagle at 60k mintage can't break $200, it is over for this mint program. None of the future releases will be worth buying period.
Not without the Mint lowering the initial price. You’re right, with silver at $71
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
@jmlanzaf said:
It would be very unusual for demand for a Mint release to suddenly increase.
You mean like what happened with the gold buffalo fractional coins? No, it wasn't unusual.
If supply dries up, then demand raises prices.
If a proof silver eagle at 60k mintage can't break $200, it is over for this mint program. None of the future releases will be worth buying period.
Not without the Mint lowering the initial price. You’re right, with silver at $71
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
I feel like a lesson was learned here by the collectors or investors who bought at $300-$330 on the secondary market prior to the additional 20,000 that were released later. Will those people take that leap again with the next silver Eagle (due in July) with over double the mintage?
@jmlanzaf said:
It would be very unusual for demand for a Mint release to suddenly increase.
You mean like what happened with the gold buffalo fractional coins? No, it wasn't unusual.
If supply dries up, then demand raises prices.
If a proof silver eagle at 60k mintage can't break $200, it is over for this mint program. None of the future releases will be worth buying period.
Not without the Mint lowering the initial price. You’re right, with silver at $71
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
I feel like a lesson was learned here by the collectors or investors who bought at $300-$330 on the secondary market prior to the additional 20,000 that were released later. Will those people take that leap again with the next silver Eagle (due in July) with over double the mintage?
Probably. FOMO is very powerful (just ask several of the folks on this forum) and people don't learn.
If it's hyped (and it will be) and if people miss out, they will chase it.
@jmlanzaf said:
It would be very unusual for demand for a Mint release to suddenly increase.
You mean like what happened with the gold buffalo fractional coins? No, it wasn't unusual.
If supply dries up, then demand raises prices.
If a proof silver eagle at 60k mintage can't break $200, it is over for this mint program. None of the future releases will be worth buying period.
Not without the Mint lowering the initial price. You’re right, with silver at $71
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
I feel like a lesson was learned here by the collectors or investors who bought at $300-$330 on the secondary market prior to the additional 20,000 that were released later. Will those people take that leap again with the next silver Eagle (due in July) with over double the mintage?
Probably. FOMO is very powerful (just ask several of the folks on this forum) and people don't learn.
If it's hyped (and it will be) and if people miss out, they will chase it.
@jmlanzaf said:
It would be very unusual for demand for a Mint release to suddenly increase.
You mean like what happened with the gold buffalo fractional coins? No, it wasn't unusual.
If supply dries up, then demand raises prices.
If a proof silver eagle at 60k mintage can't break $200, it is over for this mint program. None of the future releases will be worth buying period.
Not without the Mint lowering the initial price. You’re right, with silver at $71
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
I feel like a lesson was learned here by the collectors or investors who bought at $300-$330 on the secondary market prior to the additional 20,000 that were released later. Will those people take that leap again with the next silver Eagle (due in July) with over double the mintage?
Probably. FOMO is very powerful (just ask several of the folks on this forum) and people don't learn.
If it's hyped (and it will be) and if people miss out, they will chase it.
Time will tell Brother !
True. But the wildcard will be whether or not it sells out. Not whether people will chase it if it does.
And then, if they do chase it, based on the performance of the Congratulations set, it will peak and then fall. Unless dual dates and privies are such a draw that mintage won't matter. Which I guess might be the case, given the performance of the regular proof, with 300K and another 200K on the way, as compared to the Congratulations set.
@jmlanzaf said:
It would be very unusual for demand for a Mint release to suddenly increase.
You mean like what happened with the gold buffalo fractional coins? No, it wasn't unusual.
If supply dries up, then demand raises prices.
If a proof silver eagle at 60k mintage can't break $200, it is over for this mint program. None of the future releases will be worth buying period.
Not without the Mint lowering the initial price. You’re right, with silver at $71
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
I feel like a lesson was learned here by the collectors or investors who bought at $300-$330 on the secondary market prior to the additional 20,000 that were released later. Will those people take that leap again with the next silver Eagle (due in July) with over double the mintage?
Probably. FOMO is very powerful (just ask several of the folks on this forum) and people don't learn.
If it's hyped (and it will be) and if people miss out, they will chase it.
Time will tell Brother !
True. But the wildcard will be whether or not it sells out. Not whether people will chase it if it does.
And then, if they do chase it, based on the performance of the Congratulations set, it will peak and then fall. Unless dual dates and privies are such a draw that mintage won't matter. Which I guess might be the case, given the performance of the regular proof, with 300K and another 200K on the way, as compared to the Congratulations set.
I think the addition of a potential 200,000 more regular proof dual dated’s will bring that coin to the current fate of the Congrats set.
@jmlanzaf said:
It would be very unusual for demand for a Mint release to suddenly increase.
You mean like what happened with the gold buffalo fractional coins? No, it wasn't unusual.
If supply dries up, then demand raises prices.
If a proof silver eagle at 60k mintage can't break $200, it is over for this mint program. None of the future releases will be worth buying period.
Not without the Mint lowering the initial price. You’re right, with silver at $71
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
I feel like a lesson was learned here by the collectors or investors who bought at $300-$330 on the secondary market prior to the additional 20,000 that were released later. Will those people take that leap again with the next silver Eagle (due in July) with over double the mintage?
Probably. FOMO is very powerful (just ask several of the folks on this forum) and people don't learn.
If it's hyped (and it will be) and if people miss out, they will chase it.
Time will tell Brother !
True. But the wildcard will be whether or not it sells out. Not whether people will chase it if it does.
And then, if they do chase it, based on the performance of the Congratulations set, it will peak and then fall. Unless dual dates and privies are such a draw that mintage won't matter. Which I guess might be the case, given the performance of the regular proof, with 300K and another 200K on the way, as compared to the Congratulations set.
Did this not sell out ?
I recall the 2008 with the reverse of 2007 selling for under $100 at the start
@jmlanzaf said:
It would be very unusual for demand for a Mint release to suddenly increase.
You mean like what happened with the gold buffalo fractional coins? No, it wasn't unusual.
If supply dries up, then demand raises prices.
If a proof silver eagle at 60k mintage can't break $200, it is over for this mint program. None of the future releases will be worth buying period.
Not without the Mint lowering the initial price. You’re right, with silver at $71
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
I feel like a lesson was learned here by the collectors or investors who bought at $300-$330 on the secondary market prior to the additional 20,000 that were released later. Will those people take that leap again with the next silver Eagle (due in July) with over double the mintage?
Probably. FOMO is very powerful (just ask several of the folks on this forum) and people don't learn.
If it's hyped (and it will be) and if people miss out, they will chase it.
Time will tell Brother !
True. But the wildcard will be whether or not it sells out. Not whether people will chase it if it does.
And then, if they do chase it, based on the performance of the Congratulations set, it will peak and then fall. Unless dual dates and privies are such a draw that mintage won't matter. Which I guess might be the case, given the performance of the regular proof, with 300K and another 200K on the way, as compared to the Congratulations set.
I think the addition of a potential 200,000 more regular proof dual dated’s will bring that coin to the current fate of the Congrats set.
@jmlanzaf said:
It would be very unusual for demand for a Mint release to suddenly increase.
You mean like what happened with the gold buffalo fractional coins? No, it wasn't unusual.
If supply dries up, then demand raises prices.
If a proof silver eagle at 60k mintage can't break $200, it is over for this mint program. None of the future releases will be worth buying period.
Not without the Mint lowering the initial price. You’re right, with silver at $71
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
I feel like a lesson was learned here by the collectors or investors who bought at $300-$330 on the secondary market prior to the additional 20,000 that were released later. Will those people take that leap again with the next silver Eagle (due in July) with over double the mintage?
Probably. FOMO is very powerful (just ask several of the folks on this forum) and people don't learn.
If it's hyped (and it will be) and if people miss out, they will chase it.
Time will tell Brother !
True. But the wildcard will be whether or not it sells out. Not whether people will chase it if it does.
And then, if they do chase it, based on the performance of the Congratulations set, it will peak and then fall. Unless dual dates and privies are such a draw that mintage won't matter. Which I guess might be the case, given the performance of the regular proof, with 300K and another 200K on the way, as compared to the Congratulations set.
I think the addition of a potential 200,000 more regular proof dual dated’s will bring that coin to the current fate of the Congrats set.
I'm not so sure @ the mint prices ?
Do you mean you’re not sure they could move another 200,000 of those, or that you’re not sure it would drop to current Congrats levels? I haven’t looked at the secondary prices on them in over a week, but they were around $230 then. I figure that even another 75,000 of those would bring them to $200 or. lower.
The 2026-P's are winners, many people don't realize it yet. It is a condition rarity in PR70. It's not obvious from pop reports, but if you look at First Strike - which is the submission most collectors use because they can't do any of the other special labels and are typically submitted without min grade specified, there are way more PR69's than PR70s. Remember these numbers include some bulk submissions for the plain First Strike label with Min Grade 70 also. My guess is less than 1/3 are PCGS PR70's. The 4 I submitted all came back PR69s.
@jmlanzaf said:
It would be very unusual for demand for a Mint release to suddenly increase.
You mean like what happened with the gold buffalo fractional coins? No, it wasn't unusual.
If supply dries up, then demand raises prices.
If a proof silver eagle at 60k mintage can't break $200, it is over for this mint program. None of the future releases will be worth buying period.
Not without the Mint lowering the initial price. You’re right, with silver at $71
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
I feel like a lesson was learned here by the collectors or investors who bought at $300-$330 on the secondary market prior to the additional 20,000 that were released later. Will those people take that leap again with the next silver Eagle (due in July) with over double the mintage?
Probably. FOMO is very powerful (just ask several of the folks on this forum) and people don't learn.
If it's hyped (and it will be) and if people miss out, they will chase it.
Time will tell Brother !
True. But the wildcard will be whether or not it sells out. Not whether people will chase it if it does.
And then, if they do chase it, based on the performance of the Congratulations set, it will peak and then fall. Unless dual dates and privies are such a draw that mintage won't matter. Which I guess might be the case, given the performance of the regular proof, with 300K and another 200K on the way, as compared to the Congratulations set.
I think the addition of a potential 200,000 more regular proof dual dated’s will bring that coin to the current fate of the Congrats set.
Absolutely. But most people know that it's coming. Even with the 300K already out there, they don't sell for that much less than the Congratulations coins.
@jmlanzaf said:
It would be very unusual for demand for a Mint release to suddenly increase.
You mean like what happened with the gold buffalo fractional coins? No, it wasn't unusual.
If supply dries up, then demand raises prices.
If a proof silver eagle at 60k mintage can't break $200, it is over for this mint program. None of the future releases will be worth buying period.
Not without the Mint lowering the initial price. You’re right, with silver at $71
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
I feel like a lesson was learned here by the collectors or investors who bought at $300-$330 on the secondary market prior to the additional 20,000 that were released later. Will those people take that leap again with the next silver Eagle (due in July) with over double the mintage?
Probably. FOMO is very powerful (just ask several of the folks on this forum) and people don't learn.
If it's hyped (and it will be) and if people miss out, they will chase it.
Time will tell Brother !
True. But the wildcard will be whether or not it sells out. Not whether people will chase it if it does.
And then, if they do chase it, based on the performance of the Congratulations set, it will peak and then fall. Unless dual dates and privies are such a draw that mintage won't matter. Which I guess might be the case, given the performance of the regular proof, with 300K and another 200K on the way, as compared to the Congratulations set.
Did this not sell out ?
I recall the 2008 with the reverse of 2007 selling for under $100 at the start
It did. And people did chase it. Now, not so much, and the price is collapsing. That's the point.
@jmlanzaf said:
It would be very unusual for demand for a Mint release to suddenly increase.
You mean like what happened with the gold buffalo fractional coins? No, it wasn't unusual.
If supply dries up, then demand raises prices.
If a proof silver eagle at 60k mintage can't break $200, it is over for this mint program. None of the future releases will be worth buying period.
Not without the Mint lowering the initial price. You’re right, with silver at $71
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
I feel like a lesson was learned here by the collectors or investors who bought at $300-$330 on the secondary market prior to the additional 20,000 that were released later. Will those people take that leap again with the next silver Eagle (due in July) with over double the mintage?
Probably. FOMO is very powerful (just ask several of the folks on this forum) and people don't learn.
If it's hyped (and it will be) and if people miss out, they will chase it.
Time will tell Brother !
True. But the wildcard will be whether or not it sells out. Not whether people will chase it if it does.
And then, if they do chase it, based on the performance of the Congratulations set, it will peak and then fall. Unless dual dates and privies are such a draw that mintage won't matter. Which I guess might be the case, given the performance of the regular proof, with 300K and another 200K on the way, as compared to the Congratulations set.
I think the addition of a potential 200,000 more regular proof dual dated’s will bring that coin to the current fate of the Congrats set.
I'm not so sure @ the mint prices ?
Do you mean you’re not sure they could move another 200,000 of those, or that you’re not sure it would drop to current Congrats levels? I haven’t looked at the secondary prices on them in over a week, but they were around $230 then. I figure that even another 75,000 of those would bring them to $200 or. lower.
Regular dual dated proofs in OGP have always been below the Congratulations set, due to the much higher mintage. That hasn't changed. But, they are not much below the Congratulations set, in spite of a much higher mintage.
@jmlanzaf said:
It would be very unusual for demand for a Mint release to suddenly increase.
You mean like what happened with the gold buffalo fractional coins? No, it wasn't unusual.
If supply dries up, then demand raises prices.
If a proof silver eagle at 60k mintage can't break $200, it is over for this mint program. None of the future releases will be worth buying period.
Not without the Mint lowering the initial price. You’re right, with silver at $71
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
I feel like a lesson was learned here by the collectors or investors who bought at $300-$330 on the secondary market prior to the additional 20,000 that were released later. Will those people take that leap again with the next silver Eagle (due in July) with over double the mintage?
Probably. FOMO is very powerful (just ask several of the folks on this forum) and people don't learn.
If it's hyped (and it will be) and if people miss out, they will chase it.
Time will tell Brother !
True. But the wildcard will be whether or not it sells out. Not whether people will chase it if it does.
And then, if they do chase it, based on the performance of the Congratulations set, it will peak and then fall. Unless dual dates and privies are such a draw that mintage won't matter. Which I guess might be the case, given the performance of the regular proof, with 300K and another 200K on the way, as compared to the Congratulations set.
I think the addition of a potential 200,000 more regular proof dual dated’s will bring that coin to the current fate of the Congrats set.
I'm not so sure @ the mint prices ?
Do you mean you’re not sure they could move another 200,000 of those, or that you’re not sure it would drop to current Congrats levels? I haven’t looked at the secondary prices on them in over a week, but they were around $230 then. I figure that even another 75,000 of those would bring them to $200 or. lower.
Regular dual dated proofs in OGP have always been below the Congratulations set, due to the much higher mintage. That hasn't changed. But, they are not much below the Congratulations set, in spite of a much higher mintage.
Been to a few coin shows and several coin club meetings in the last few months. I'd guess that 90% or more of collectors don't even know about the 2026-P Proof. Most don't know this coin is different and there's another proof to collect other than the regular 1776-2026-W Proof. I think as time passes and more and more collectors figure it out, this coin will do well. Surprised it's so close to the Mint issue price and even seen some selling on the BST at cost.
@jmlanzaf said:
It would be very unusual for demand for a Mint release to suddenly increase.
You mean like what happened with the gold buffalo fractional coins? No, it wasn't unusual.
If supply dries up, then demand raises prices.
If a proof silver eagle at 60k mintage can't break $200, it is over for this mint program. None of the future releases will be worth buying period.
Not without the Mint lowering the initial price. You’re right, with silver at $71
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
I feel like a lesson was learned here by the collectors or investors who bought at $300-$330 on the secondary market prior to the additional 20,000 that were released later. Will those people take that leap again with the next silver Eagle (due in July) with over double the mintage?
Probably. FOMO is very powerful (just ask several of the folks on this forum) and people don't learn.
If it's hyped (and it will be) and if people miss out, they will chase it.
Time will tell Brother !
True. But the wildcard will be whether or not it sells out. Not whether people will chase it if it does.
And then, if they do chase it, based on the performance of the Congratulations set, it will peak and then fall. Unless dual dates and privies are such a draw that mintage won't matter. Which I guess might be the case, given the performance of the regular proof, with 300K and another 200K on the way, as compared to the Congratulations set.
I think the addition of a potential 200,000 more regular proof dual dated’s will bring that coin to the current fate of the Congrats set.
I'm not so sure @ the mint prices ?
Do you mean you’re not sure they could move another 200,000 of those, or that you’re not sure it would drop to current Congrats levels? I haven’t looked at the secondary prices on them in over a week, but they were around $230 then. I figure that even another 75,000 of those would bring them to $200 or. lower.
Regular dual dated proofs in OGP have always been below the Congratulations set, due to the much higher mintage. That hasn't changed. But, they are not much below the Congratulations set, in spite of a much higher mintage.
It's early brother
And for 95% of Mint offerings, early represents the peak not the bottom. Wishing and hoping is not a strategy. Could it go up? Yes. Is it likely, too. No. And it's not my first rodeo, no matter how Nickel wants to paint it. That is the normal pattern, with a few exceptions.
The 2007/2008 moved later because the exact number of them wasn't known early. There were later moves for the Buffalo fractionals, perhaps, and definitely the bucking bronco. But most hot Mint issues are hot early. The opposite that Nickel keep saying, though for the same reason. When the flippers are in, the perceived demand is higher causing an initial shortage of coins because so many are in flipper hands. That pushes the prices early. But as the flippers keep selling, they satiate demand and the coins start dropping as a result.
The demand will not get higher later. The demand is chasing coins now and, apparently, not having trouble getting them despite so many of them in "weak hands".
$200 is a very high price for a "rare" eagle. Could it go up? Yes. But why is 2.5x silver not high enough already??? You can keep cheerleading. But no one has offered any real reason why demand is going to rise later.
Can ANYONE find an example of a Mint issue that dropped 40% below its post release price and then suddenly surged later? I can't think of any. This issue has not failed to rise after release. It rose significantly after release and then started dropping which is the NORMAL pattern. Rising later is highly abnormal, other than for long term bullion price increases and general market inflation. The V75s are currently 60% or so below their post strike release highs, for example.
Answer this question, please: What is suppressing demand now? It is not demand that is going to change but supply as the flippers exit the market. Half Dimes argument is backwards. Supply is artificially low now and demand is artificially high because of the flippers in the market. That is why hot issues tend to peak just after release. So, seriously, the request is not rhetorical. What do you think is suppressing demand now that is going to cause a surge later?
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@jmlanzaf said:
I'll sell you my last one for $185 and I'll pay the shipping. Bargain of a lifetime.
Oops... wrong forum. 😆
Sell at the bottom, you would do great in the stock market.
Many times, too many to count, products have barely gone up until the flippers are out of inventory. You act like this is your first rodeo.
That is incorrect, and you know it. Your supply/demand argument is backwards. Demand is artificially high because of the flippers at release. Flippers exiting the market decreases aggregate demand for the available supply. Where is new demand going to come from? In the case of true collectors, the demand is fixed and the supply to them is artificially low because the flippers sucked up the available coins. That imbalance gets worked out after release which is why prices almost always drop after the post-release peak. For prices to go up, you need a new demand. You need people who currently don't know or care about the issue to discover it. Are they there? Maybe. But history says this is unusual and unlikely. I know this because it is NOT my first rodeo. The V75 are down 60% from their post release highs, for example. 2025 proof sets are down 50% despite all the speculation on them. That is the normal pattern and I know you know it. There are rare exceptions like the 1995-W ASE, the 2021 (?) Bronco and, maybe, gold fractionals. Most everything else follows the pattern of the V75's and 2025 proof sets.
Now, if you wanted to make an argument I might agree with, you could argue that the supply questions introduced by the delayed release of the later 20,000 coins disrupted the market. That MIGHT be true. But trying to argue that coins tend to increase after the flippers exit the market is the exact opposite of the normal trend. We've seen it hundreds of times which is why the normal advice on this forum is to be patient not to chase the latest hot release.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@jmlanzaf said:
It would be very unusual for demand for a Mint release to suddenly increase.
You mean like what happened with the gold buffalo fractional coins? No, it wasn't unusual.
If supply dries up, then demand raises prices.
If a proof silver eagle at 60k mintage can't break $200, it is over for this mint program. None of the future releases will be worth buying period.
Not without the Mint lowering the initial price. You’re right, with silver at $71
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
I feel like a lesson was learned here by the collectors or investors who bought at $300-$330 on the secondary market prior to the additional 20,000 that were released later. Will those people take that leap again with the next silver Eagle (due in July) with over double the mintage?
Probably. FOMO is very powerful (just ask several of the folks on this forum) and people don't learn.
If it's hyped (and it will be) and if people miss out, they will chase it.
Time will tell Brother !
True. But the wildcard will be whether or not it sells out. Not whether people will chase it if it does.
And then, if they do chase it, based on the performance of the Congratulations set, it will peak and then fall. Unless dual dates and privies are such a draw that mintage won't matter. Which I guess might be the case, given the performance of the regular proof, with 300K and another 200K on the way, as compared to the Congratulations set.
Did this not sell out ?
I recall the 2008 with the reverse of 2007 selling for under $100 at the start
It did. And people did chase it. Now, not so much, and the price is collapsing. That's the point.
Again, at risk to myself, I agree with NJ. And anyone who has bought Mint products for the last two decades know this. There are exceptions, but that doesn't make the exception the rule.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@jmlanzaf said:
It would be very unusual for demand for a Mint release to suddenly increase.
You mean like what happened with the gold buffalo fractional coins? No, it wasn't unusual.
If supply dries up, then demand raises prices.
If a proof silver eagle at 60k mintage can't break $200, it is over for this mint program. None of the future releases will be worth buying period.
Not without the Mint lowering the initial price. You’re right, with silver at $71
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
I feel like a lesson was learned here by the collectors or investors who bought at $300-$330 on the secondary market prior to the additional 20,000 that were released later. Will those people take that leap again with the next silver Eagle (due in July) with over double the mintage?
Probably. FOMO is very powerful (just ask several of the folks on this forum) and people don't learn.
If it's hyped (and it will be) and if people miss out, they will chase it.
Time will tell Brother !
True. But the wildcard will be whether or not it sells out. Not whether people will chase it if it does.
And then, if they do chase it, based on the performance of the Congratulations set, it will peak and then fall. Unless dual dates and privies are such a draw that mintage won't matter. Which I guess might be the case, given the performance of the regular proof, with 300K and another 200K on the way, as compared to the Congratulations set.
I think the addition of a potential 200,000 more regular proof dual dated’s will bring that coin to the current fate of the Congrats set.
I'm not so sure @ the mint prices ?
Do you mean you’re not sure they could move another 200,000 of those, or that you’re not sure it would drop to current Congrats levels? I haven’t looked at the secondary prices on them in over a week, but they were around $230 then. I figure that even another 75,000 of those would bring them to $200 or. lower.
Regular dual dated proofs in OGP have always been below the Congratulations set, due to the much higher mintage. That hasn't changed. But, they are not much below the Congratulations set, in spite of a much higher mintage.
It's early brother
And for 95% of Mint offerings, early represents the peak not the bottom. Wishing and hoping is not a strategy. Could it go up? Yes. Is it likely, too. No. And it's not my first rodeo, no matter how Nickel wants to paint it. That is the normal pattern, with a few exceptions.
The 2007/2008 moved later because the exact number of them wasn't known early. There were later moves for the Buffalo fractionals, perhaps, and definitely the bucking bronco. But most hot Mint issues are hot early. The opposite that Nickel keep saying, though for the same reason. When the flippers are in, the perceived demand is higher causing an initial shortage of coins because so many are in flipper hands. That pushes the prices early. But as the flippers keep selling, they satiate demand and the coins start dropping as a result.
The demand will not get higher later. The demand is chasing coins now and, apparently, not having trouble getting them despite so many of them in "weak hands".
$200 is a very high price for a "rare" eagle. Could it go up? Yes. But why is 2.5x silver not high enough already??? You can keep cheerleading. But no one has offered any real reason why demand is going to rise later.
Can ANYONE find an example of a Mint issue that dropped 40% below its post release price and then suddenly surged later? I can't think of any. This issue has not failed to rise after release. It rose significantly after release and then started dropping which is the NORMAL pattern. Rising later is highly abnormal, other than for long term bullion price increases and general market inflation. The V75s are currently 60% or so below their post strike release highs, for example.
Answer this question, please: What is suppressing demand now? It is not demand that is going to change but supply as the flippers exit the market. Half Dimes argument is backwards. Supply is artificially low now and demand is artificially high because of the flippers in the market. That is why hot issues tend to peak just after release. So, seriously, the request is not rhetorical. What do you think is suppressing demand now that is going to cause a surge later?
@jmlanzaf said:
It would be very unusual for demand for a Mint release to suddenly increase.
You mean like what happened with the gold buffalo fractional coins? No, it wasn't unusual.
If supply dries up, then demand raises prices.
If a proof silver eagle at 60k mintage can't break $200, it is over for this mint program. None of the future releases will be worth buying period.
Not without the Mint lowering the initial price. You’re right, with silver at $71
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
I feel like a lesson was learned here by the collectors or investors who bought at $300-$330 on the secondary market prior to the additional 20,000 that were released later. Will those people take that leap again with the next silver Eagle (due in July) with over double the mintage?
Probably. FOMO is very powerful (just ask several of the folks on this forum) and people don't learn.
If it's hyped (and it will be) and if people miss out, they will chase it.
Time will tell Brother !
True. But the wildcard will be whether or not it sells out. Not whether people will chase it if it does.
And then, if they do chase it, based on the performance of the Congratulations set, it will peak and then fall. Unless dual dates and privies are such a draw that mintage won't matter. Which I guess might be the case, given the performance of the regular proof, with 300K and another 200K on the way, as compared to the Congratulations set.
I think the addition of a potential 200,000 more regular proof dual dated’s will bring that coin to the current fate of the Congrats set.
I'm not so sure @ the mint prices ?
Do you mean you’re not sure they could move another 200,000 of those, or that you’re not sure it would drop to current Congrats levels? I haven’t looked at the secondary prices on them in over a week, but they were around $230 then. I figure that even another 75,000 of those would bring them to $200 or. lower.
Regular dual dated proofs in OGP have always been below the Congratulations set, due to the much higher mintage. That hasn't changed. But, they are not much below the Congratulations set, in spite of a much higher mintage.
It's early brother
And for 95% of Mint offerings, early represents the peak not the bottom. Wishing and hoping is not a strategy. Could it go up? Yes. Is it likely, too. No. And it's not my first rodeo, no matter how Nickel wants to paint it. That is the normal pattern, with a few exceptions.
The 2007/2008 moved later because the exact number of them wasn't known early. There were later moves for the Buffalo fractionals, perhaps, and definitely the bucking bronco. But most hot Mint issues are hot early. The opposite that Nickel keep saying, though for the same reason. When the flippers are in, the perceived demand is higher causing an initial shortage of coins because so many are in flipper hands. That pushes the prices early. But as the flippers keep selling, they satiate demand and the coins start dropping as a result.
The demand will not get higher later. The demand is chasing coins now and, apparently, not having trouble getting them despite so many of them in "weak hands".
$200 is a very high price for a "rare" eagle. Could it go up? Yes. But why is 2.5x silver not high enough already??? You can keep cheerleading. But no one has offered any real reason why demand is going to rise later.
Can ANYONE find an example of a Mint issue that dropped 40% below its post release price and then suddenly surged later? I can't think of any. This issue has not failed to rise after release. It rose significantly after release and then started dropping which is the NORMAL pattern. Rising later is highly abnormal, other than for long term bullion price increases and general market inflation. The V75s are currently 60% or so below their post strike release highs, for example.
Answer this question, please: What is suppressing demand now? It is not demand that is going to change but supply as the flippers exit the market. Half Dimes argument is backwards. Supply is artificially low now and demand is artificially high because of the flippers in the market. That is why hot issues tend to peak just after release. So, seriously, the request is not rhetorical. What do you think is suppressing demand now that is going to cause a surge later?
The economy comes to mind ?
The economy is the constant backdrop. Why aren't ALL coins dropping, then? Any aren't all the silver eagles dropping?
The unemployment rate is 4.3%. CPI is 3.8% Core CPI is 2.75%. The unemployment number is good. The CPI is slightly above the target, but not excessively so. Monthly disposable income numbers have been rising since 2025. And the stock market is at all time highs. The economy is not that bad.
But, that aside, you're now expecting a surge in the economy that causes a surge in this coin? Okay. Hope it works out for you.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
People can believe whatever they want, but when you have coin dealers getting a large supply of these, compounded by flippers and an extra mint release, it dropped the prices down to the "I will sell at what I can get to pay my credit card bill" mentality.
That is where we are today.
Until the dealers and flippers run out of inventory, the true price will not happen.
Yes there are more than 60k collectors of proof silver eagles, and it will show over time. A 60k proof mintage is like a 45k UNC mintage, and that number is too low not the have a premium. For those on their first rodeo, just wait and see.
@HalfDime said:
People can believe whatever they want, but when you have coin dealers getting a large supply of these, compounded by flippers and an extra mint release, it dropped the prices down to the "I will sell at what I can get to pay my credit card bill" mentality.
That is where we are today.
Until the dealers and flippers run out of inventory, the true price will not happen.
Yes there are more than 60k collectors of proof silver eagles, and it will show over time. A 60k proof mintage is like a 45k UNC mintage, and that number is too low not the have a premium. For those on their first rodeo, just wait and see.
It HAS a premium. There's only $75 worth of silver init.
Yes, this is not the "true price". But 90+% of the time, the true price after the flippers exit is lower not higher.
Yes, you can believe whatever you want. But, as they say on Wall Street, always look at both sides of the trade.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
What is the mints justification for $100 premium? Spot silver price has been steady for months at around $70-$75. Who is going to buy an ASE at 300K mintage at $175. I guess until the mint sees they are not moving their product.
@pf70collector said:
What is the mints justification for $100 premium? Spot silver price has been steady for months at around $70-$75. Who is going to buy an ASE at 300K mintage at $175. I guess until the mint sees they are not moving their product.
And yet they keep moving. It is not intended as a bullion item. You can buy the uncirculated ones for close to spot.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@pf70collector said:
What is the mints justification for $100 premium? Spot silver price has been steady for months at around $70-$75. Who is going to buy an ASE at 300K mintage at $175. I guess until the mint sees they are not moving their product.
Proof Silver Eagles were $95 each when silver was at $30 per ounce when the 2025 was released in January 2025.
Even worse for the 2024 Proof Silver Eagles which were $80 each when silver was at $22 per ounce back in January 2024.
So, on a percentage basis, the price of proof Silver Eagles is down quite a bit this year.
@pf70collector said:
What is the mints justification for $100 premium? Spot silver price has been steady for months at around $70-$75. Who is going to buy an ASE at 300K mintage at $175. I guess until the mint sees they are not moving their product.
Proof Silver Eagles were $95 each when silver was at $30 per ounce when the 2025 was released in January 2025.
Even worse for the 2024 Proof Silver Eagles which were $80 each when silver was at $22 per ounce back in January 2024.
So, on a percentage basis, the price of proof Silver Eagles is down quite a bit this year.
Except that's not how the numismatic market works. St. Gaudens Double Eagles also sold at a far higher premium to intrinsic value when gold was $300 per ounce than today.
Because the simple fact is that people pay for coins with gross dollars. Not percentage premiums over spot. So $4500 is far higher than $1500 for a Double Eagle, and $175 is far higher than $95 for an ASE. Period.
Higher prices lead to lower demand. Which is why mintage figures for precious metal numismatic product has been on a decline for several years, as both the spot price of gold and silver have skyrocketed, and as Mint premiums to spot have not contracted, as the market demands.
Propping prices up by artificially restricting supply will work for a while, until it doesn't. We are starting to see the limits to that strategy with a 60K mintage proof ASE struggling to stay above $200 in the secondary market.
@pf70collector said:
What is the mints justification for $100 premium? Spot silver price has been steady for months at around $70-$75. Who is going to buy an ASE at 300K mintage at $175. I guess until the mint sees they are not moving their product.
Proof Silver Eagles were $95 each when silver was at $30 per ounce when the 2025 was released in January 2025.
Even worse for the 2024 Proof Silver Eagles which were $80 each when silver was at $22 per ounce back in January 2024.
So, on a percentage basis, the price of proof Silver Eagles is down quite a bit this year.
Except that's not how the numismatic market works. St. Gaudens Double Eagles also sold at a far higher premium to intrinsic value when gold was $300 per ounce than today.
Because the simple fact is that people pay for coins with gross dollars. Not percentage premiums over spot. So $4500 is far higher than $1500 for a Double Eagle, and $175 is far higher than $95 for an ASE. Period.
Higher prices lead to lower demand. Which is why mintage figures for precious metal numismatic product has been on a decline for several years, as both the spot price of gold and silver have skyrocketed, and as Mint premiums to spot have not contracted, as the market demands.
Propping prices up by artificially restricting supply will work for a while, until it doesn't. We are starting to see the limits to that strategy with a 60K mintage proof ASE struggling to stay above $200 in the secondary market.
I agree!
A lot of rationalizations, recently, based on the percentage of the premium rather than the absolute premium.
I'm told that the price of the Congratulations set will be spiking any minute now. A few sales below $200 this week on eBay, including two slabbed 69s.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
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Comments
I'm with HalfDime !
This ^^^. People think demand is inelastic, and that the market will support whatever price the Mint sets. It isn't and it won't.
Not only have precious metal prices exploded, but the markups the Mint insists on simply do not track what is supported in the secondary market. As a result, people get frustrated and withdraw from the market. That puts a lid on ultimate demand, even if "hot" issues do well initially.
This might very well be Exhibit A. Because the issue price was almost double the price of similar items from last year.
It sold out, but people don't really care about it anymore, because it isn't easy to flip for a profit that makes it worthwhile. That will only dampen future demand for similar items. The. Mint really did take a page out of the Franklin Mint's playbook here, with tons of releases at obnoxious prices. The results will likely be similar, with $124.50 annual uncirculated sets and $170 numismatic ounces of silver.
I feel like a lesson was learned here by the collectors or investors who bought at $300-$330 on the secondary market prior to the additional 20,000 that were released later. Will those people take that leap again with the next silver Eagle (due in July) with over double the mintage?
Probably. FOMO is very powerful (just ask several of the folks on this forum) and people don't learn.
If it's hyped (and it will be) and if people miss out, they will chase it.
Time will tell Brother !
True. But the wildcard will be whether or not it sells out. Not whether people will chase it if it does.
And then, if they do chase it, based on the performance of the Congratulations set, it will peak and then fall. Unless dual dates and privies are such a draw that mintage won't matter. Which I guess might be the case, given the performance of the regular proof, with 300K and another 200K on the way, as compared to the Congratulations set.
I think the addition of a potential 200,000 more regular proof dual dated’s will bring that coin to the current fate of the Congrats set.
Did this not sell out ?
I recall the 2008 with the reverse of 2007 selling for under $100 at the start
I'm not so sure @ the mint prices ?
Do you mean you’re not sure they could move another 200,000 of those, or that you’re not sure it would drop to current Congrats levels? I haven’t looked at the secondary prices on them in over a week, but they were around $230 then. I figure that even another 75,000 of those would bring them to $200 or. lower.
Sell at the bottom, you would do great in the stock market.
Many times, too many to count, products have barely gone up until the flippers are out of inventory. You act like this is your first rodeo.
Look at the total mint .... 60K v/s 500K
The 2026-P's are winners, many people don't realize it yet. It is a condition rarity in PR70. It's not obvious from pop reports, but if you look at First Strike - which is the submission most collectors use because they can't do any of the other special labels and are typically submitted without min grade specified, there are way more PR69's than PR70s. Remember these numbers include some bulk submissions for the plain First Strike label with Min Grade 70 also. My guess is less than 1/3 are PCGS PR70's. The 4 I submitted all came back PR69s.
I think that tracks. I've got 10, and 3 of those have no visible flaws (to me). The other 7 all have that suction cup ring marking.
Absolutely. But most people know that it's coming. Even with the 300K already out there, they don't sell for that much less than the Congratulations coins.
It did. And people did chase it. Now, not so much, and the price is collapsing. That's the point.
Regular dual dated proofs in OGP have always been below the Congratulations set, due to the much higher mintage. That hasn't changed. But, they are not much below the Congratulations set, in spite of a much higher mintage.
It's early brother
Been to a few coin shows and several coin club meetings in the last few months. I'd guess that 90% or more of collectors don't even know about the 2026-P Proof. Most don't know this coin is different and there's another proof to collect other than the regular 1776-2026-W Proof. I think as time passes and more and more collectors figure it out, this coin will do well. Surprised it's so close to the Mint issue price and even seen some selling on the BST at cost.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 700
LOL. Then you should want to buy at the "bottom".
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
And for 95% of Mint offerings, early represents the peak not the bottom. Wishing and hoping is not a strategy. Could it go up? Yes. Is it likely, too. No. And it's not my first rodeo, no matter how Nickel wants to paint it. That is the normal pattern, with a few exceptions.
The 2007/2008 moved later because the exact number of them wasn't known early. There were later moves for the Buffalo fractionals, perhaps, and definitely the bucking bronco. But most hot Mint issues are hot early. The opposite that Nickel keep saying, though for the same reason. When the flippers are in, the perceived demand is higher causing an initial shortage of coins because so many are in flipper hands. That pushes the prices early. But as the flippers keep selling, they satiate demand and the coins start dropping as a result.
The demand will not get higher later. The demand is chasing coins now and, apparently, not having trouble getting them despite so many of them in "weak hands".
$200 is a very high price for a "rare" eagle. Could it go up? Yes. But why is 2.5x silver not high enough already??? You can keep cheerleading. But no one has offered any real reason why demand is going to rise later.
Can ANYONE find an example of a Mint issue that dropped 40% below its post release price and then suddenly surged later? I can't think of any. This issue has not failed to rise after release. It rose significantly after release and then started dropping which is the NORMAL pattern. Rising later is highly abnormal, other than for long term bullion price increases and general market inflation. The V75s are currently 60% or so below their post strike release highs, for example.
Answer this question, please: What is suppressing demand now? It is not demand that is going to change but supply as the flippers exit the market. Half Dimes argument is backwards. Supply is artificially low now and demand is artificially high because of the flippers in the market. That is why hot issues tend to peak just after release. So, seriously, the request is not rhetorical. What do you think is suppressing demand now that is going to cause a surge later?
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
That is incorrect, and you know it. Your supply/demand argument is backwards. Demand is artificially high because of the flippers at release. Flippers exiting the market decreases aggregate demand for the available supply. Where is new demand going to come from? In the case of true collectors, the demand is fixed and the supply to them is artificially low because the flippers sucked up the available coins. That imbalance gets worked out after release which is why prices almost always drop after the post-release peak. For prices to go up, you need a new demand. You need people who currently don't know or care about the issue to discover it. Are they there? Maybe. But history says this is unusual and unlikely. I know this because it is NOT my first rodeo. The V75 are down 60% from their post release highs, for example. 2025 proof sets are down 50% despite all the speculation on them. That is the normal pattern and I know you know it. There are rare exceptions like the 1995-W ASE, the 2021 (?) Bronco and, maybe, gold fractionals. Most everything else follows the pattern of the V75's and 2025 proof sets.
Now, if you wanted to make an argument I might agree with, you could argue that the supply questions introduced by the delayed release of the later 20,000 coins disrupted the market. That MIGHT be true. But trying to argue that coins tend to increase after the flippers exit the market is the exact opposite of the normal trend. We've seen it hundreds of times which is why the normal advice on this forum is to be patient not to chase the latest hot release.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Again, at risk to myself, I agree with NJ. And anyone who has bought Mint products for the last two decades know this. There are exceptions, but that doesn't make the exception the rule.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
The economy comes to mind ?
The economy is the constant backdrop. Why aren't ALL coins dropping, then? Any aren't all the silver eagles dropping?
The unemployment rate is 4.3%. CPI is 3.8% Core CPI is 2.75%. The unemployment number is good. The CPI is slightly above the target, but not excessively so. Monthly disposable income numbers have been rising since 2025. And the stock market is at all time highs. The economy is not that bad.
But, that aside, you're now expecting a surge in the economy that causes a surge in this coin? Okay. Hope it works out for you.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
In 2008 I was buying the ASE with the reverse of 2007 for under $100 , in 2009 I was selling them for $550...
As far as the economy is concerned , buy gas and groceries ! Any left over money may NOT go to numismatic collections .... for the average person .
People can believe whatever they want, but when you have coin dealers getting a large supply of these, compounded by flippers and an extra mint release, it dropped the prices down to the "I will sell at what I can get to pay my credit card bill" mentality.
That is where we are today.
Until the dealers and flippers run out of inventory, the true price will not happen.
Yes there are more than 60k collectors of proof silver eagles, and it will show over time. A 60k proof mintage is like a 45k UNC mintage, and that number is too low not the have a premium. For those on their first rodeo, just wait and see.
how many stopped collecting ase with the change to type 2?
not me
maybe 60k is a lot
H> @MsMorrisine said:
I believe this is the second lowest mintage ?
I could be wrong ?
depends upon how many collectors of ase are collecting type 2
and it's the key to the type 2 set. for now.
Straight proof, yes. Third lowest mintage of any silver eagle.
I'm holding on , I believe HalfDime is correct !
i don't think all ase collectors buy the unc version
are the 95W prices coming down?
Now I regret selling some of mine ...
Again , time will tell
I'm still on board with HalfDime !
I've already addressed both those issues. We've acknowledged the unusual case of the 2008/2007 and the reasons for it.
And, again, if "the economy" is the answer, why isn't that reflected in the price of ALL OTHER COINS?
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
No...despite "the economy".
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
It HAS a premium. There's only $75 worth of silver init.
Yes, this is not the "true price". But 90+% of the time, the true price after the flippers exit is lower not higher.
Yes, you can believe whatever you want. But, as they say on Wall Street, always look at both sides of the trade.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
What if PCGS did a different label for first strike first issue first strike second issue that might shake up the market probably too late now
What is the mints justification for $100 premium? Spot silver price has been steady for months at around $70-$75. Who is going to buy an ASE at 300K mintage at $175. I guess until the mint sees they are not moving their product.
Box of 20
And yet they keep moving. It is not intended as a bullion item. You can buy the uncirculated ones for close to spot.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Proof Silver Eagles were $95 each when silver was at $30 per ounce when the 2025 was released in January 2025.
Even worse for the 2024 Proof Silver Eagles which were $80 each when silver was at $22 per ounce back in January 2024.
So, on a percentage basis, the price of proof Silver Eagles is down quite a bit this year.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 700
Except that's not how the numismatic market works. St. Gaudens Double Eagles also sold at a far higher premium to intrinsic value when gold was $300 per ounce than today.
Because the simple fact is that people pay for coins with gross dollars. Not percentage premiums over spot. So $4500 is far higher than $1500 for a Double Eagle, and $175 is far higher than $95 for an ASE. Period.
Higher prices lead to lower demand. Which is why mintage figures for precious metal numismatic product has been on a decline for several years, as both the spot price of gold and silver have skyrocketed, and as Mint premiums to spot have not contracted, as the market demands.
Propping prices up by artificially restricting supply will work for a while, until it doesn't. We are starting to see the limits to that strategy with a 60K mintage proof ASE struggling to stay above $200 in the secondary market.
I agree!
A lot of rationalizations, recently, based on the percentage of the premium rather than the absolute premium.
I'm told that the price of the Congratulations set will be spiking any minute now.
A few sales below $200 this week on eBay, including two slabbed 69s.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Slabbed PR69s should absolutely sell for less than an ungraded example in OGP, no surprise there.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 700
Not the point. Slabbed 69s are now below cost.
And there were a couple OGP below 200.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
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