Found a "Ghost" Coin: 103 Mintage Gold. Is Israeli Numismatics the most undervalued play right now?
ido595
Posts: 6 ✭
I was researching the Biblical Art series and was shocked to find that the 2020 'Ruth' gold coin (1 Shekel) had such a tiny production run—just 103 units.
For comparison, most 'rare' modern coins are in the thousands. I found a full set of these coming up for sale in a local house in Israel (Rimon) and I’m trying to figure out if the world market has even noticed these yet.
here is the link: https://il.bidspirit.com/ui/lotPage/rimon/source/catalog/auction/74952/lot/152801/ישראל-1-שקל-חדש-התשע-ד-2013-דוד?lang=en
What do you guys think? Is 103 mintage as crazy as it sounds for modern gold?
How much do you think the coin is worth?
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Here is corrected link:
https://il.bidspirit.com/ui/lotPage/rimon/source/search/auction/74952/lot/152806/ישראל-1-שקל-חדש-התש-ף-2020-רות?lang=en
Curious how you know actual production run? It says maximum mintage was 5000 of that coin.
I have dozens of sub-50 mintages for modern foreign coins, with actual mintages way below that - -South Africa, Benin, Liberia, Monaco, Falkland/Maldives, etc. The coins were never meant for circulation and collector demand was/is tiny, so it makes sense
It is written in the offical distrubuer site(the final amount):
https://en.israelmint.com/default/33123140.html
To answer your question... Probably not. While there seems to be moderate interest in high grade Palestine Mandate Coinage, the post 1948 coinage for the most part has lagged with an unknown amount of the silver coins likely melted for bullion value. At some point this may change but who knows if and when that may happen.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I saw that apmex sell some coins succesly of less rare from the series at 450$(https://www.apmex.com/product/156256/2016-israel-1-25-oz-gold-samson-in-the-philistine-house-proof) 236 mintage, this is the raraest small coin in the series(103 mintage).
Any idea how much at least what the range?
I am not in a position to offer guidance as to the value of this specific issue
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
There's a recent thread on the subject of reasons why Israeli coins are "under-appreciated": https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1121174/israeli-coins-underappreciated-gems-of-historical-coins#latest
The TLDR: Israeli coins are under-valued because of low demand: colelctors don;t want them. The drawbacks to world coin collectors appreciating Israeli coins are four fold: the language barrier, the geopolitics surrounding the existence and behaviour of the State of Israel, the bewildering plethora of commemorative coin types, and the unique "acquired taste" of the art style used by the Israeli mint.
Roman emperor Marcus Aurelius, "Meditations"
Apparently I have been awarded the DPOTD twice.
While it may be less popular, we need to consider it from a broader perspective. Production in previous years was in the thousands, and last year's production was 5,000. Consequently, there will be a bottleneck for collectors looking to assemble the full set, as a maximum of only 103 full sets can exist. Due to this scarcity, I believe the coin's value could be significantly higher; I just don't know by exactly how much, or by what range?
Collectors seem to or do have a predisposition to prefer the coinage of their home country or country of origin. If demand is lacking by these collectors, it's not likely it's coming from anyone else.
If this coin is only one of many other low mintage NCLT from Israel, there has to be something else going for it, as there isn't anything unusual about it as the prior post stated. When South Africa was my primary collecting interest, collectors in that country seemed to think that every scarce and rare coin (however narrowly defined) should sell for (much) higher prices, and none of these were NCLT either. This would have made an abnormally high percentage of that country's coinage a lot more expensive.
I told them collectors don't normally buy a coin just because it's scarce or rare. The scarcity alone doesn't make a coin interesting enough to hobbyist collectors. That's financial speculation, not collecting.
I have a passing interest in the First Jewish Revolt coinage for the same reason @KSorbo stated , but it's too expensive for what I infer are obvious reasons. I don't buy coins in this price range, but when I eventually do, it's going to be for my primary collection first.
Very well daid @WCC and of course @Sapyx .
As for its current or future value, if it is sold in Israel by an auction house, targetting the collectors of this particular series, it depends a lot on its official issue price by the Bank of Israel.
Outside Israel, things are very different. With the huge rise of the price of gold, a lot of coins are sold (at auction) well below melt value ,because of the additional buyer's premium of 22-28%.
In Greece, besides Greek gold coins from the 19th century , all of which have tiny mintages (including a few modern gold NCLTs that are rare and popular) , as well as world gold rarities that have a universal following , such as a Swiss or French high grade MS 100 gold francs, or a Victorian or George V proof coin from the coronation sets, practically everything else is sold by the gram. Even a Saint $20 in MS63 goes for spot value. A recent exception to this, was a 1927 Indian $10, PCGS MS64, CAC, that was on sale by a friendly dealer at €2500, less than what they sell for at a Heritage auction, but I was late by one day and I missed it.
This does not mean that you will get spot value for a proof Israeli 2024 tiny gold coin. At best you will get spot value minus 10-15% , depending on the type of coin that will most likely go for melting. To simplify this, the main exception that will get you the closest to spot value, is any common gold sovereign, which is and always has been the coin of choice for whomever wants to buy gold in physical form, collector or not.
The Bank of Greece publishes daily, the buy and sell price of the gold sovereign, instead of publishing prices by the gram or by the ounce, sometimes two or three times daily with the recent ups and downs of gold and it buys these 7.32 grams of pure gold at minus 2.7% of spot and sells them at plus 12% of its spot value.
Pawn shops are even worse, but still, a lot of people go to them, to avoid the paperwork and the initial receipts of their purchase that the Bank of Greece and one more private bank that is the official representative of the British Royal Mint are asking for. For collectors who know better, there is a lot of buy/sell/trade in coin shops ,who usually buy sovereigns only, at minus 2-3% of spot and sell them at spot or at spot plus 2-4%. Other gold coins sell for bigger discounts.
Now however, that the intrinsic value of a sovereign is $1069 as I'm typing this (it was $1100+ only two days ago), even the coin shops are buying at minus 8-10% of spot value, but they are also selling them at minus 3-4% of spot.
In fact, several dealers that I know, are telling me that the activity of buying/selling gold and silver coins and jewelry and even silverware is covering their daily main fees. Selling (and buying) collectables only is not a sustainable business anymore.
So, the ghost coin with its intrinsic value of $182 would translate into ~$160 in Greece and $180 in Germany if sold directly to a dealer. Which is why private transactions between collectors have increased geometrically.
myEbay
DPOTD 3
We do not need to consider it from a broader perspective at all. Rarity doesn't make anything valuable; the supply/demand dynamic needs greater demand than supply to drive prices higher. There are likely fewer than 103 people who want to collect a full set of these and, of those who do, their desire clearly isn't significant enough to command a large premium.
Until you can find a way to increase demand, this coin will languish just like all of the other issues mentioned above.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
Whenever I read the sentiments of the OP, invariably it's from someone who wants many others to pay a lot more than them. They don't want to pay more, but many others apparently should. I didn't read anything indicating why anyone should really want it.
This pretty much sums up why this type of coin has the current and historical value.