Silver conspiracy theory finally becomes conspiracy fact
derryb
Posts: 38,471 ✭✭✭✭✭
Like with many conspiracy theories, we silver tin foilers are finally vindicated. In three short months the curtain has been pulled back and the truth is out; there is far less silver than there are promises. March will be an interesting month as delivery demand is expected to outweigh delivery promises.
Mr. Gold sums it up best: "there is a difference in being early and being wrong. When Noah was running around building his ark, he looked wrong. He was not wrong–he was just early." He adds "if silver fails to deliver, gold will fail to deliver in 24 hours."
Rock does in fact beat paper. Many here have long believed this to be true and have relentlessly prepared for this. We have been heavily rewarded of late but the dust is still in the air. $120 silver was just a precurser. Opportunity to be early once again presents itself.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
Comments
What happens to the conspiracy if nothing happens this month?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I never expected silver to go triple-digits, and now I can see silver going quite a way beyond that level, even under what used to be considered as "normal" circumstances. but things are no longer "normal". Noting the present level of gross mismanagement taking place at the very highest levels, I would expect a major (but gradual) global trend away from government debt instruments and diversification in all directions, including precious metals.
Given the fact that PMs are a relatively small capital market it seems obvious to me that even a minor stream of that global diversification process flowing into precious metals will goose the price levels further and further from where they are right now. Wherever gold goes, silver will leapfrog. The fundamentals haven't changed and silver consumption will continue to be robust even if the economy slows, which I expect it to do. Silver is in a chronic and persistent supply deficit and nobody really knows how much scrap will be available to fill the gap - and for how long. The stupid manipulation games played at Comex and LBMA can only exacerbate the situation and don't solve the supply shortage problem.
There's no doubt that the price of silver will continue to be volatile. The short-timers will always get hammered by the price moves and will never come back into the market while complaining that silver is a losing proposition, all the while hoping for a dramatic crash so that they can get back into the market (which they wouldn't do anyway because it's "too risky").
I'm not a big fan of the volatility but I've learned to ignore it over time. Some of the price predictions for silver still boggle my mind, but I no longer discount the possibility that gold can hit $8,000 and by extension that silver can go to $500 if the GSR drops to 15. Circling back to the fundamentals of government spending, exponential debt and gross governmental mismanagement, the things that I once thought improbable now seem very possible. Be careful out there.
I knew it would happen.
recent prices already tell us it is fact. March delivery failure just adds to the pile of truth.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
It likely means things are still early.
I have been following this developing story in real time, and forgive me if I am sharing something obvious here, but since this is new to me, here is how I am doing it:
1.) Do a Google Search for: "CME silver stock report"
2.) The first result should be a link that triggers an Excel spreadsheet download. (Sorry, but I am not able to hyperlink directly.)
3.) On this report, you can see inventories of silver in all the Comex vaults that belong to different banks, along with information about how it is all moving.
Currently, we are at 81m ounces of registered silver, which is a multi-year low, and is also down 7m since Monday. If ~20% of paper holders entitled to physical silver in March cash out and ask for physical silver, the registered silver pile will be depleted. There are many levers Comex could pull to stave off this scenario, but unless they eventually acquire more silver, physical realities will eventually force their hand.
>>>My Collection
Even eligible silver is leaving Comex.
I knew it would happen.
Sorry, while timing need not be exact, when you are off by YEARS or even DECADES, you're wrong.
COMEX is like the bookie, they're not speculating on the outcome. If some of the players want silver, they can get it. There's other sources of supply. Most people just net the price differentials and settle in cash the profit or loss.
Maybe the price rises, maybe it doesn't. I don't claim to be a commodity trading expert.
But the notion that the mechanics of this market necessitate the price doubleing or tripling from here ? Sorry, I don't see it.
"When Noah was running around building his ark, he looked wrong. He was not wrong – he was just early.
Early bird gets the worm.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
There are some quotes in finance about being early being just as bad as wrong
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"-- John Maynard Keynes
It's common sense. I know some people who nailed the 1987 Stock Market Crash but they were bearish in 1985. You would have been better off if they had kept you in the market up to and beyond the crash.
Lots of folks nailed the Crash. Most of them were finished as prognosticators within 5 years !!
I bought most of my silver 2000-2008 and held 12,000 ozs. until late last year. I was early to buy (and a month early to sell) yet never had a "solvency" problem. Insolvency is a result of investing/speculating with money that should have been put aside for more important things. Problem is that a lot of players gamble with future house payments and are unable to weather your "irrational" market episodes.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
My understanding is that @derryb has been quite precise. I think he is predicting a COMEX crisis in March. If there is not one in March or, to be a little forgiving, by mid April I think we can all agree that the forecast was incorrect. In such a situation most pundits will just go on making other forecasts and ignoring the ones they got wrong. The better pundits will at least explain why they were wrong and maybe offer an alternative forecast.
12k oz. Good Lord! You were a .5%'er Incredible. Enjoy yourself ... meanwhile, doofus face was tripping overhimself to unload unload unload! Yet he still has it hahahaha. Imagine wheeling a monster box into some coin shop unannounced in this market. Cripes!
COPPER is gutter !
wait for something else on the zerohedge website
What happens to the conspiracy if nothing happens this month?
derryb said that the conspiratorial silver tin foilers have already been vindicated. If March deliveries on the Comex can't be met, the price will take another excursion into 3 digits and Comex will lose more business than they already have.
wait for something else on the zerohedge website
The interview will Bill Holter on ZeroHedge is worth consideration. Face it, silver isn't going to $30, and you wouldn't be buying it even if it did.
I knew it would happen.
Rather than focus on mechanics, look at TA and the 45 yr silver chart. Edwards & Magee discussed it all starting in 1948.
Reliable major patterns, usually lead to major results. That chart suggests at least a tripling from here. Of course we don't know the time frame. What we do know is that gold and silver have completed or will soon complete wave 3's from their 2015 (gold) and 2020 (silver) lows. Wave 4 corrections (months to 1-2 yrs)........then a final wave 5 to complete the higher order wave III going back to 1999-2002. That wave 5 should complete in the 2028-2030 time frame. And even that wave still suggests a higher order wave V about 10-20 yrs down the road.
My bigger concern is that at some point, industry will apply pressure to the Govt to force stackers to give up their stacks under the umbrella of AI and Electrical grid national security and dominance, In 1933 the Govt via Executive Order required the turning in of all but a small quantity of USA minted gold coins, only to revalue them by +60% the following year.
No silver manipulation proven until now? Well, what about the Fall 2008 BIS silver data which showed the commercial banks holding otc derivatives equivalent to 13 yrs of world silver production? At the time it was about $500 BILL notional. Gold wasn't as bad, they only squashed it with "bets" on 4 yrs of world gold production. That explains the huge swings, and the final wave 4 bottom in Oct/Nov 2008.....then the wave 5's into the 2011 tops to complete the higher order wave I.
You were buying the gutter well after 2008 as shown by the dates on your previous pictured green boxes. Just sayin.
RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
Back to the bunker perhaps? RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
That’s why I stay solvent with lawful money.
Silver and gold are solvent.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Isn’t that note worth about 4 cents now since it was printed in 1934?
you can be wrong until suddenly you are not.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
fixed it for the nit picker
bought the dips. you should have also
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
to be clear, in the first post i said "March will be an interesting month as delivery demand is expected to outweigh delivery promises." I am on record in numerous other discussions as predicting COMEX will eventually implode. If deliveries in March do fail, good likelihood the silver futures exchange will also fail.
and for the record I was precise when I advised buying quality (.999) silver over the past two decades. I and others who did so or now seeing the reward I predicted. While silver will see drops, my long term "prediction" is that it will continue to reach record highs regardless of COMEX survivability.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
It is a well documented fact that COMEX sells a whole lot more promises than it is in a postion to honor. The conspiracy is in believing this is not true. Whether COMEX soon implodes or not does not affect silver's outlook to climb. It only affects "how high."
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
yes, but it's buying power is insured by precious metals he holds
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
The COMEX will continue chugging along just as it always has. These loonie conspiracy theories do help the gutter salesmen move a few ounces so I see why they are continuously dreamt up. It is crazy though that there are actual people gullible enough to believe them. Shouldn't be shocked, as there are people out there that still think the earth is flat. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
Yes, but the roll of silver dimes (lawful money) that the note($5) was exchanged for is worth about $300 today….. going up ?
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Higash, the problem I have is not holding Derry to a certain month. It's that others have been predicting this paper vs. physical thing for years if not decades.
If a prediction comes true....and you double your money....but it takes 5-7 years and you could have done as good or better in other markets...did you really predict anything useful ?
That's my point.
I agree with the thrust of your post, BTW.
If positions are settled in cash at the end of each trading day -- just like in "Trading Places"
-- why does COMEX have to implode ?
Do you really think they are stupid ? Suicidal ?
How many exchanges -- even in less-developed countries -- have imploded in the last 40 years ?
But it is giving LOWER returns with HIGHER volatility and HIGHER DRAWDOWNS than other financial assets over most rolling time periods.
You might feel comfortable there, Derry. But most retail AND institutional investors with fiduciary duties will not.
RR, I used to follow Elliot Wave and all that stuff in the old days of the newsletter (remember them ?
). Met many of the prognosticators....good times.
So....I won't dismiss what the charts are saying and I have been bullish on gold since 2018 and posted as such on this and other sites. I would certainly expect silver to go up alongside gold, maybe lag, maybe outperform. Who knows....
But I think some of these website touters.... the folks predicting the end of COMEX...or paper vs. physical problems....or commercial bank conspiracy theories....I've heard them for 2 decades (if not longer). If something was going to blow up, it would have happened by now. Most of the "problems" are either misunderstood or exaggerated. Lots of "exposure" is net-hedged.
I tend to be dismissive of the worst-case catastrophes because even if they DO happen...you can't invest or game it. And that assumes IF it happens and IF it happens in 3 or 5 or 10 years....not 50 years from now. I've been a bank investor and analyst for 35 years...when someone tells me they are using their Tier 1 capital to "suppress" the price of something, I roll my eyes. The same people saying that are saying all these other cataclysmic things.
I'm open to TA justifying higher prices -- and Andy Addison, who I used to read religiously 35 years ago, thinks silver can goto $250 in a few years -- or fundamentals justifying higher prices. I just don't have much faith in gloom-and-doom posters who've been wrong for so many years.
i can't get over the use of the word "fact"
i keep checking in to find more "facts" but am disappointed
And what if the exchange can't afford to pay the current price of the commodity d to spot price increase, volume of "cashouts" and the lack of new money and rollovers? Do you think those accepting cash will quiety accept less than their contract's value? What keeps the COMEX's ponzi scheme going is the rolling over of contracts or having enough sales (new money) to satisfy contracts that do cash out at a orice that has historically been much lower than the recent spot price explosion. Current demand for physical silver increases demand for delivery. If there is more demand for the physical metal (delivery) than there is metal in the vault and not enough cash and new money to meet the current value of the paper promise then COMEX is in default.
I think they didn't expect to lose control of spot price.
Default is not limited to exchanges. It applies to any business/financial entity that can not meet its obligations.
When COMEX does reach the point of not being able to meet its obligations it wll have three options:
1. Default - contract owners (including silver ETF's) will be left holding the bag
2. Manipulate price much lower - underway
3. Bailout - most likely scenario and it will be done so quietly that the default "never occured.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
PMs are an insurance policy that protects one's dollar exposure. As with life insurance, not having a claim is a good thing.
Cashing the dollar insurance policy in at a substantial gain is a plus. PMs are not a prosperous investment, they are dollar protection. I was very comfortable knowing that i had over 1 million of my dollars insured.
I cashed in the policy so that my heirs would not have to go through the steps to do so. Daytrading now with 25% of the physical proceeds using silver ETFs (AGQ & ZSL). The high volatility is providing excellent returns, have more than doubled the trading account in less than two months. While not for the weak of heart, yes, I am comfortable there.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
Who says they did ? COMEX is not in business to speculate and guess on the value of silver. They're a middleman.
Bear Stearns and Lehman were supposed to be middle men. In fact, Alan "Ace" Greenburg of Bear used to say that all the time to his troops. Then they thought they could use their balance sheet to hold questionable assets leveraged at 25-to-1.
If you see COMEX doing that, let me know.
You really think that a "bailout" can happen and nobody will know ?
I see that CME is raising the margin requirments for oil tonight. According to you, that's a conspiracy to raise/lower the price (pick one
) ? Even OPEC could not control prices indefinitely and they were one of the most powerful cartels with true market power.
You should remember that, Derry !!
COMEX will not implode because of over-leveraged out of the money contracts. It is the B/D's who allowed their customers to become over-leveraged that are on the hook to COMEX. COMEX will get their money to close out the contracts, it will be part of the B/D's EOD obligations. And that is why COMEX raises margins when the underlying commodity experiences high prices and volatility as @GoldFinger1969 noted above.
If Comex can't deliver, trading will migrate to Shanghi and the prices of precious metals will rise accordingly. The arbitrage taking place now is only an indicator of what's to come. Once the price reverts to a cash-only market, the competition for physical metals will become more real than it already is.
I knew it would happen.
Here's a fact. Silver ain't 30 bucks.
COPPER is gutter !
Shanghai....
China has capital controls. Mark Mobius, the Indiana Jones of emerging markets investing, couldn't get his own money out of the country a few years ago....took weeks or months.
How'd you like to park a client's $20 billion overnight in a country like that ??!!
China has capital controls. Mark Mobius, the Indiana Jones of emerging markets investing, couldn't get his own money out of the country a few years ago....took weeks or months.
You mean, like Blackrock is now gating their customers?
If the Western financial system wasn't so corrupt, China, Russia and the BRICS wouldn't have been able to coalesce like they have. Creation of debt and calling it "money" is corrupt at the core.
I knew it would happen.
Uhhh....there's a difference in gating withdrawls from an illiquid asset investment where you were told of that possibility beforehand.
We're talking about not being able to access CASH BANK ACCOUNTS....or an ATM.
See the difference ?
Yeah, because those countries have never printed money. Why don't you invest all your money with BRICS and report back in a few years ??!!
https://goldsilver.ai/metal-prices/shanghai-silver-price
Controls ?
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Yeah, because those countries have never printed money.
Really? If you're going to try to mock someone, try a bit harder.
Why don't you invest all your money with BRICS and report back in a few years ??!!
Because I'm not that stupid. Why don't you?
The issue is rehypothecation, market manipulation, fiat money and fractional reserve banking. Let me know when things have changed back to a little more honest system. In the meantime, I'll take physical precious metals over the paper system - anytime. We've all been trapped in a bogus paradigm unless we opt out and educate ourselves about the nature of real money. Step away from the dark side, man.
I knew it would happen.
are higher Shanghai prices ($12 oz.) a result of no futures market dictating price with fundamentals setting the price?
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
heading back to $90!!
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Remember years ago when China referred to our dollar as the “paper tiger” ? I think the answer is to your question is yes. The market in PM is now a rush to physical holdings more than paper shuffling. There is an enormous acquisition taking place in plain sight while demand is for physical supply and not so much paper profit. (MHO) my humble opinion.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Well COMEX didn't implode and almost all March contracts closed out. Volume low the past weeks and OI contracts are down over 25% since Jan and prior.
Well, looks like another nothingburger™ here. Guess it's on to the next conspiracy. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
Yeah, like you actually visiting coin shops!
COPPER is gutter !
