My opinion on CAC has undergone some change
tradedollarnut
Posts: 20,463 ✭✭✭✭✭
I just sent this email to Laura:
I think you should start selling nice non doctored non CAC coins as well. That PR67 trade would have been a screaming bargain for someone at $22.5k and there are others. I said all along that CAC would hurt your business because someone else would get the money for their expertise- you can take that niche back by selling ‘Laura select’ coins at appropriate prices. The discount for non cac non doctored coins is simply too high.
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I agree @tradedollarnut and that is from someone with cac in their name
David Hall has tried to start that but big dealers are removing his sticker before they sell. Maybe Laura would have more luck with it.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
This is the straw that broke the camel’s back for me. Can I see why no sticker? Probably the slight reverse haze. But with a sticker it’s $40k and w/o the sticker she wholesaled it for $22.5k. IMO, the latter might be the better purchase.
Laura is probably one of the dealers who has done the most to help establish a reliable premium for high end CAC material.
She has also probably done a lot to steer the high end market away from non stickered material.
Her knowledge of coins and the coin market is unquestionable and her career is extremely impressive. A big reason why I know who she is despite never buying a coin from Legend and not playing very much at that end of the pool is through her numerous writings over the years, as well as her activity on different forums. I’ve enjoyed reading her unfettered remarks about all things numismatic.
Many of those writings have been abundantly clear: do not buy non stickered coins.
To pivot from that would be a heck of a 180, but if it came with a version of her own sticker/signal of endorsement of quality than it would make sense. Laura marketing it without negative implications towards CAC would be an interesting needle to watch her try to thread.
Anyways I’ve always thought at some point an alternate “stickering” service would emerge. For now I’m just glad most of my coins seem “MACable”.
I am not suggesting an alternate laura sticker. I am suggesting that she utilize her expertise to identify coins that while they aren’t quite CAC material at the moment, the price for the quality is so compelling that they are still a worthwhile buy. CAC coins are predominantly better for the grade than non-CAC coins, but at the moment that does not mean they are the most bang for the buck. I see the pendulum having swung too far.
Makes sense. And for what it’s worth I agree with your premise.
How would you envision Laura being able to help initiate the pendulum swinging back without some type of “official” denotation for the market about her opinion of quality (such as a sticker).
Laura would seem to have to muscle to help influence market thinking, even if only through how she chooses to operate Legend if not through her voice across several platforms.
Would she just start raising prices for material like the TD you posted above and stick to her guns while describing the coin as she see it? Start sharing similar thoughts about the descrepency market as you’ve posted the way she has for years about “buy CAC only”?
Genuinely curious as to your thoughts on what the mechanics might look like.
Maybe a separate laura select section on the website where she lists value coins without stickers. I would’ve paid $22,500 for that trade dollar looking like that. It would probably open up her business to a different set of clientele who feel the same way.
I agree with you 100% and have said this for years, even suggesting that CAC create a bronze sticker to identify these coins.
The “at the moment” qualification bothers me immensely although it is a subtle, accurate acknowledgement that grading standards and even CAC standards continue to evolve. Markets will always have inefficiencies and arbitrage, but evolving standards only exacerbate that leading to anomalies/inefficiencies like the coin you posted. An evolving, dynamic grading “standard” is a standardless standard which is no standard at all.
I don’t personally know this woman or know her grading knowledge, but she has a reputation for basically only dealing with cac stickered slabs. If she now all of a sudden changes her tune, and starts a division of her business to non cac stickered slabs, she’s going to cheapen her brand.
All she has to do is take that trade dollar and get it in a cacg slab, regardless of grade. That fixes the problem of no cac sticker on a pcgs67 slab, and if she loses money because it grades ~cacg65+, then she needs to learn to grade better, or just keep buying already stickered coins, and pass on borderline coins like this.
She sold it as-is for 66+ CAC money. I don't know what sending to CACG would accomplish.
All that matters to her is some sort of cac affiliation with the coins she sells, so if it’s in a pcgs non stickered holder, she can get it in a cacg holder, and that should satisfy her business model.
The “at the moment” qualification doesn’t bother me in the least. In fact, I strongly believe that’s the way that purchase decisions should be made, regardless of holders and/or stickers. Buy coins based on their qualities, at a price you feel is warranted. Why shouldn’t that (almost) always be the case?
If an NGC coin trades for less than an equivalent PCGS coin and meets your qualifications, why pass on it if it’s reasonably priced? The same goes for a non-CAC coin that trades for less than an equivalent CAC one and meets your qualifications.
Be aware of how the market values holders and stickers and at the same time, price the coins.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
JA has his quirks. He won’t grade a coin unc if it has friction. The finest known 1798 small eagle dollar was in my collection as a non CAC coin because of friction on the cheek. But the overall quality of the coin demanded that it be graded a point higher than anything else out there - I personally have no problem with the market grading of AU61-64. Why should a C+ or B- coin be half the price of a B? Doesn’t make sense to me - quality is a continuum and so should be pricing.
I have sometimes found myself passing on coins without a sticker after getting caught up in the thought process of trying to figure out why there is no sticker.
It’s one reason I enjoy tokens and world - the purchase anxiety is less. Maybe I’ve made some mistakes, but I think it’s ok to make some mistakes - it’s part of the learning process. I’ve also found some dealers I really trust and that has been a great way to lesson the chance of mistakes and sticker anxiety. And at the end of the day, collecting is really about enjoyment.
I don’t take issue with any of what you have said. It is rather the market grading concept that bothers me because markets can change rapidly creating confusion in the after market. It also reinforces the concept that a higher label number should always equate to more money. There are many AU Capped Bust half dollars that I would rather have MS pieces. I agree your dollar should sell for mint state money, but agree with JA’s friction quirk. It is also why while recognizing the value of CAC, I would never be entirely CAC only.
I don’t disagree with what you said, it is the market grading concept and resulting grade/sticker inflation that bothers me.
“Be aware of how the market values holders and stickers and at the same time, price the coins.”
Exactly my point. There’s quality bargains out there if a B coin is twice the cost of a C+
I agree - that’s how I’ve conducted my buying for a very long time.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
It bothers me, too. There’s only so much each of us can do about that, including being aware and making our own decisions, rather than letting market forces dictate them for us.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I concur with this. If the reason is because the coin is "over graded", then put it in a CACG slab for the "right" grade. Problem solved.
For some of us who see a coin and aren't able to determine whether the coin has a surface issue, the question is whether it would cross at CACG. In this case, one may not wish to go through the trouble.
"She comes out of the sun in a silk dress,
running like a water color in the rain...."
What if that slight reverse haze is PVC? Would you still buy the coin?
Laura wouldn’t have bought it in the first place so the theoretical is moot
Respectfully, I disagree. There is always the possibility that she and PCGS missed it.
I sold an expensive PCGS coin through a Legend auction that was by submitted by Legend to CAC which failed. Everybody said it was a really nice coin. Legend did not know why it failed. After the auction I had the courage to ask JA why it failed. PVC.
...> @Catbert said:
CACG can/will drop a coin to a much lower than its wear suggests the grade to be based upon surface issues. This coin has at least VF30 details yet is graded CACG VG10. I showed this coin on the Facebook LSCC site, and EVERYBODY thought I was screwed, but I knew there were some problems with "black schmutz" and associated corrosion on the surfaces and wasn't entirely surprised. I just didn't think they would drop the grade five grading steps.
If it was PVC, I bet it would clean up well with an acetone bath.
So, are you proposing the novel idea of "buy the coin and not the holder"? But in this case including the sticker, as well?
If so, then I don't see how the title you have chosen is really reflective of your belief.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
I would feel that with Laura's expertise(and I know her only from posts) she would not need to send to CAC or place her own sticker. If she didn't bother to send to CAC, then that would be good enough for me. She would be keeping the price down for the same quality with or w/o another sticker. I would rather have paid $22,5k for the T$ than $40k with a CAC sticker. It's the same coin for goodness sake. I realize that $40k was only TDN's opinion. But I feel that CAC would be for ebay, online buying with unknown sellers. Someone like Laura, Rick Snow or another qualified seller's opinion would be enough without driving the market up without improving the coin. JMO
Jim
When a man who is honestly mistaken hears the truth, he will either quit being mistaken or cease to be honest....Abraham Lincoln
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.....Mark Twain
This is an interesting thought, but I see a problem with your strategy. If a coin is fine to buy from a source such as Laura or Rick when it doesn't have a CAC sticker, but is not fine to buy from ebay or some other seller without the CAC sticker, then what happens when you want to eventually sell the coin yourself?
All coins that are purchased are eventually sold (generally true) and if you aren't Laura or Rick then you are faced with the CAC obstacle that you have just mentioned that they can avoid. Are your choices to either offer the coin back to the source, if they are interested and/or still in business, or to face the uphill battle of selling it yourself as someone without their reputation and having a coin without a CAC sticker?
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
When I purchase a coin for a collection or just because I want it, resale does not affect the purchase. When I buy to resell then I do, but never with a CAC on the coin, as usually too high for resale already. JMO
Jim
When a man who is honestly mistaken hears the truth, he will either quit being mistaken or cease to be honest....Abraham Lincoln
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.....Mark Twain
Also, Rick and CAC view coins differently. A coin can CAC, yet fail at Eagle Eye and vise versa.
Yet, I would still trust Rick and Laura's opinion as I am saying without the CAC sticker. A coin offered by them would suffice as a solid example for the grade. JMO
Jim
When a man who is honestly mistaken hears the truth, he will either quit being mistaken or cease to be honest....Abraham Lincoln
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.....Mark Twain
If both Pcgs and laura missed it, I’m certainly not gonna catch it. Shrug
Oddly enough the few coins I bought from legend all stickered later!!
The strategy works if you are able to get into the non-CAC coin at a compelling, non-CAC price. Then, of course when you sell, you will receive a non-CAC price as well, but you are not really losing in this scenario. If your goal is to own nice, problem-free coins that fit your taste and collecting goals, this isn't a bad strategy.
Rare Coins of New Hampshire had an interesting article regarding PVC.
https://rcnh.com/NewsItem.aspx?id=63
Of course, if you buy low you can sell low and be fine financially. However, the post I was quoting was specifically stating that high end dealers such as Laura or Rick could sell non-CAC coins, but essentially everyone else would likely need a CAC sticker on such pieces. So, we already know that Laura or Rick are not going to sell you a wonderful, non-CAC coin at bottom of the barrel pricing, which means that if you bay a coin from them, unless you can get it into a CAC sticker you will take a loss upon resale since the vast majority of buyers are unknown, anonymous, no reputation collectors who will have to sell on ebay or to other dealers.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
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Yeah guys, not to interrupt the great discourse here ... but ... SSSSHHHHHH!!
Let the broader market chase the beans, and leave the bargains for us.
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Seriously though ... JA has provided a great service, and has definitely helped the market overall (IMO), but he is not infallible. And he has his own prejudices and, dare I say it, a few weaknesses.
I find the disregard for unstickered coins to be shockingly hilarious. I often think, are we even looking at the coins anymore? Of course that happened in the late 80's and early 90's too.
So ... don't get me started on the price disparity. Either a LOT of people are over-paying for perceived premium quality, or a LOT of bargains are staring people in the face. I think these days, a lot of people are out over their ski's so it might not be both.
My 2c ...
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
What happens to the hobby when John Albanese is no longer around?
One thing I find interesting is the talk in this thread about price disparity. I guess in the pool that I swim in I don't really see it all that much. Sure, a coin with a CAC sticker on it already might sell for a few bucks more or absolutely be a little more liquid, but unless it has a gold CAC sticker I am not seeing a large jump in price. Perhaps this happens in certain areas of the market more than others or perhaps I am comfortable enough to ignore coins I don't like (CAC or not) and buy coins I do like (CAC or not) that I hadn't noticed much spread.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
An 1883 PCGS PR67 Cam CAC recently sold for just over $40k
The 1883 pictured was just wholesaled for $22,500. That’s a significant and factual price disparity.
Laura recently told me that she could get $600k for a dollar of mine if it stickered, but only $300k if it didn’t. That’s a huge theoretical (educated, mind you) price disparity
My mind is rebelling over these real life examples
Tom, in researching auction prices (as I do in large numbers every week), I often see significant disparities between CAC and non-CAC coins. I have no doubt that many of them are justified but that a good number of them aren’t. This is essentially a matter of determining fair market value for nice coins that aren’t nice enough for CAC (or that CAC happens not to like for purposes of stickering). And the market isn’t always efficient at it.
If a nice non-CAC coin is priced at 90% of CAC money, maybe it’s an easy pass. But as the price goes down from that 90%, at a certain point it might become an easy buy, instead.
Edited to add: In order to avoid possible confusion, my above comments aren’t about bargain hunting or buying non-CAC coins with the hope or intent to get them stickered and profit from it. I’m just talking about buying nice coins at reasonable premiums over coins that aren’t quite as nice.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
It’s like this in the CBH world as well.
A later date, Common Overton in XF45 with a CAC sticker could be had at $300-400 relatively recently. They are now going for $1000 in some cases.
The same “style” coin as the one below without a sticker has gone from around $250 to around $400 in that same time frame.
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/2054240/1836-Capped-Bust-Half-Dollar-Lettered-Edge-PCGS-XF-45-CAC-Green-Toned
BHNC #248 … 140 and counting.
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So many examples where we play recently it boggles my mind ...
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
I see. Laura offered me the 1883 in this thread for $25k, so my previous response was colored by the knowledge that she would in fact offer non-CAC coins for non-CAC prices. I viewed the coin in-hand and didn't spot anything technically wrong with it, but the toning pattern didn't match my preferences. For proofs of that era, I prefer more fully or evenly toned coins, or black and white with contrast. This one was somewhere in between. I eventually ended up buying the much more expensive 1883 PR67CAM CAC that Bruce referenced when he sold a few of his dupes last year. Unfortunately, a worse value but it more closely matched a look that I enjoy, so to me it was worth it. Forgive the crappy iPhone pic:
Thanks for sharing these further specifics. Honestly, the coin at $25k with no sticker is not a bad deal. And paying more for a coin you like more is never a bad deal either
That coin is gorgeous! I don't care what you shot it with, it is wonderful. Thank you for sharing it.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
It's also like this in the chopped trade dollar (and also non-chopped) world.
This is one of my old coins. Perfectly fine but super duper common date, heavily chopped, and non-remarkable condition. I would estimate the sticker was worth something like $900 in this auction.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
Is that remnants of a fingerprint on the obverse behind Lady Liberty? If so, maybe that's why it didn't sticker.
What if Albanese got it wrong, and Laura and PCGS were right? I do not know Albanese, but perhaps he is not as perfect as you may think. We are all human and we all makes mistakes from time to time.
Here's a notion...buy the coin and not the holder (or sticker).
I can see silently net-grading it, but VG10 seems ludicrous. It should have still graded some level of VF in my opinion. Nice coin.