so how does one price a top POP variety?
ad4400
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How does one figure out what top POP variety coin is worth in a more thinly collected segment? My case study is a 27-D buffalo 3 1/2 leg, where my snipe turns out to have been naively low. Or was it?
Coin I was eyeing is currently unattributed PCGS63 and appears to be no brainer variety, and a more pronounced example at that. It hammered at $6.6K today. Prior top POP (1/0) was a 62 and sold for $7.4K in 2012. Safe bet? Maybe. Maybe not: prices realized for 58s show $5.7K in 2009, but $1.3K in 2015, and $1K in 2019 - a very downward trajectory.
I also looked at 'similar', 17-D and 26-D 3 1/2 leggers. Only MS result for the 17-D is $2.6K for a 63 in 2019, although the total POP is about 50% bigger than either 26 or 27-D 3 1/2 legger, so presumably less scare. The 26-D has about the same total POP (119 vs 120) and POPs 58 or higher (4 vs 5) as 27-D, with much lower hammers of $2.5K for a NGC64 and $9.4K for a PcGS66.
To me it seems relying on a single price point from 14 years ago risks missing changes in the market. I would think that the 17-D, 26-D and 27-D varieties are close enough in collector interest and relative appearance of abraided leg to allow comparison but am interested in other's thoughts. How else would you price a top POP variety?
Buffalo Nickel Digital Album
Toned Buffalo Date SetDigital Album
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/mysetregistry/album/411385 7070 Registry<
Comments
Since it’s thinly traded, I think it’s got to be offered in an auction that attracts the eyeballs of those that collect it. If you’re just putting it in a shop with a price on it, good luck. But since it’s not a commodity or a widget, you’ve just got to hope that more than one of the guys who appreciate it see it at the same time.
From what I read on these boards, too pop and high end coins can have big swings in sale prices and we don’t always know “why”.
It is kind of crazy, I collect Lincolns and the 2014 Lincoln Cent FS-101 MS67RD is top pop (one of three) that I got from GC a little while back was not terrible but not cheap either, however I wanted it as I have all of the significant Lincoln varieties, but if a roll of was graded, it would kill the price. I also have some older top pop Lincoln DDOs, like a 1936 Ty 1, and that one is pretty likely safe. I guess you spend what you spend for what you want to collect.
Pcgs price guide for a normal coin is $550, so clearly at least 1 other person knew it was the variety. If you know, would you be so kind as to mention how many different bidders bid more than $550 on the auction? That would give an idea of the breadth of attention it already attracted.
If it was you and 1 other bidder both snipping at the last second, taking it from $500 to $6,600, I’d say you may have a winner with a little money to be made once attributed on the holder.
If like 5+ different people bid it up, most likely will be a loser because many knowledgeable people saw it and tapped out fairly low. They knew what it was and wouldn’t pay up for a top pop. Not a good sign.
So there were the Two $6k bidders, then two $3.5ish bidders, then two in the $1.3k area. So big disparity between the winner and where rest of market was comfortable with. I loved the idea of owning another top pop ( I own top pop 1918 2 feather) but I was out of my element.
Based on your assessment, which I concur, it seems $6k is in front of skies a good margin
Buffalo Nickel Digital Album
Toned Buffalo Date SetDigital Album
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/mysetregistry/album/411385 7070 Registry<
It’s very difficult and in precise without recent comps. Looking at similar varieties from different years may be the most helpful. When it comes time to sell consigning with a Buffalo Nickel coin dealer specialist might be your best option. An auction may be risky.
Even if 5 people bid it up, you are still betting with the chance that it may not get attributed.
Since PCGS has about a 50% hit rate on varieties, that's quite the gamble sometimes.
Coin Photography
For top pops, especially more obscure ones I think that it's all about the right place at the right time. For the past sales, the oldest sale might have been at a buffalo nickel only auction, and the later ones just by themselves on GC, heritage, etc.
Again just a guess, I don't really know.
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All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Top pop pricing - I simply ask what I need for it.
On buy side Always on lookout for them especially wholesaler (show) who sets up b4 public allowed in.
Sell - You’re in the drivers seat with top pop.
I have a few top pop keepers that I really like too.
50% hit rate? Is that your experience or was there a scientific study somewhere?
They seem quite high on the naked eye varieties.
That's the experience I've personally seen, and several other board members have seen.
Coin Photography