bluejay loves Theegala. he had a terrible 2025. it was very bizarre, because he has game. come to find out, he was secretly injured. apparently he's healthy this year, because he just finished T7 and T8 the past two weeks. and he likes the Waste. so i'll gladly ride the hot hand.
Jordan is part homer pick, so be careful if you tail me. he's been my fav golfer since he came out on tour, but he's not the player he once was. that being said, he also likes the Waste. he's finished inside the top 10 the past 3 years. no qualms about betting on him either.
just need one to profit. both would be stupendous.
Well stated. This will help going forward as I seem to land in the ties a fair amount of time. Can refer back to this explanation.
BTW I am going back to the book to get that 1 cent they owe me and will be using your formula as evidence.😀
let me ask you a question, as this is driving me a little crazy. i had to go backward to get to Gotterup's odds for you, and it was a weird figure in the neighborhood of +263
what odds did you get when you locked your bet in?
Well stated. This will help going forward as I seem to land in the ties a fair amount of time. Can refer back to this explanation.
BTW I am going back to the book to get that 1 cent they owe me and will be using your formula as evidence.😀
let me ask you a question, as this is driving me a little crazy. i had to go backward to get to Gotterup's odds for you, and it was a weird figure in the neighborhood of +263
what odds did you get when you locked your bet in?
Here is best I can figure the odds for top 20.
Start with the payout,before ties.$13.15.
Now deduct initial bet, $5 that you would receive on the win bet of $13.15.
Equals $8.15.
Now divide $8.15 by $5 you come to per each $1 bet odds of 163. 163x$5=$8.15. Add in the initial bet of $5 then that equals $13.15. That is the win amount on the voucher. They do not have the odds on the voucher but do show when you make your pick on the terminal screen.
Now in regard to my top 10 bet that lost one can decipher the odds the same way. My $5 bet would of paid $22.50, again before ties. Minus $5 from $22.50 =$17.50. Divide by $5 equals odds of 350. 350x5 equals the 17.50 actual win devoid of the initial $5 bet.
Now our casino is no longer paying off cents under 5 cents. So if you put in a slot voucher bring owed under that amount it is keeping the cents. Not rounding up. Same theory may be applying to the sports book. I will research that point. Looks like they "ate" my one cent. Why not round up to $9.90? It's a cash transaction. Walmart does it rounds up/ down for cash transactions.
This is how I can best ascertain these questions.
Will let you know about the sports book policy on cents remittances.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
bluejay loves Theegala. he had a terrible 2025. it was very bizarre, because he has game. come to find out, he was secretly injured. apparently he's healthy this year, because he just finished T7 and T8 the past two weeks. and he likes the Waste. so i'll gladly ride the hot hand.
Jordan is part homer pick, so be careful if you tail me. he's been my fav golfer since he came out on tour, but he's not the player he once was. that being said, he also likes the Waste. he's finished inside the top 10 the past 3 years. no qualms about betting on him either.
just need one to profit. both would be stupendous.
-5786.61
Like your picks. Abandoned Thee last week . Thought he would bounce off his previous solid effort.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
Somewhat curious with all this talk about Maye and his shoulder condition that the spread has not changed. Not influenced by the talk one way or the other. Must be alright.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
Phoenix Open view. With 3 maybe 4/5 top golfers maybe occupying 5 of the top 20 spots will have to look to other 15 spots. By no means are Scottie,Xander,Hideki all locks tough to rule them out for that consideration. Throw in Brooks and one other then you possibly be looking at only 15 realistic spots to make a play if ignore those 4/5. Suppose could go with the chalk but which one?. At least with these 4/5 the $ will be dispersed somewhat even. But Scottie will garner most of it for top 5/10/20 but ROI will be small.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
edit: Koepka used to be #1 in the world. he's won 5 majors. but like many others who did this, when he made the jump to LIV for the bag, his game deteriorated. outside of the money, he didn't like it. you could tell he wasn't happy and wanted to come back to the PGA Tour where the real competition is. he did just that last month. outside of majors (which he qualified for and played in even when he was at LIV), last week was his first start in a "regular" PGA Tour event in 4 years. his game was not sharp coming into it and he was expected to be as rusty as a nail. plus, the nerves. he admitted himself he was nervous because he didn't know what type of reception he'd receive (guys who drifted to LIV are not looked upon fondly by a lot of fans, and he was the first big name to drift back). so for many reasons, oddsmakers didn't think he'd do much last week, hence his hefty betting figure. he made the cut but finished tied for 56th.
he's back in the field this week at the tour house party -- i mean the Waste Management -- a place he's had a success at before. he won the tournament years ago. as i said up above, i have a hunch that's he's going to play well now that he has a tournament under his belt, so i tossed 50 on him at +200 for T20.
Interesting odds for a player whose season average is 10.5
Of course he will get more minutes tonight than usual, but is he capable of capitalizing on it?
Almost like it's scripted/programmed.
That's why I stay away
From the NBA.
I haven't been betting since NFL is winding down, I got tired of betting superstars PRA props, they make it so you have to do multiple players to get any type of reasonable return on any bets and most of the time at least 1 player will fall just shy of a moderate number, which is usually 30 or 35 and so. Many times they get a few points away and they go on the bench or just stop getting points so I literally just stopped doing it since it's 100% just donating
I'll bet the Super Bowl then wait till Baseball, I'm at the point where I believe the NBA is greasier than the NFL, I hate it and hope the league bankrupts itself someday
Almost like it's scripted/programmed.
That's why I stay away
From the NBA.
I haven't been betting since NFL is winding down, I got tired of betting superstars PRA props, they make it so you have to do multiple players to get any type of reasonable return on any bets and most of the time at least 1 player will fall just shy of a moderate number, which is usually 30 or 35 and so. Many times they get a few points away and they go on the bench or just stop getting points so I literally just stopped doing it since it's 100% just donating
I'll bet the Super Bowl then wait till Baseball, I'm at the point where I believe the NBA is greasier than the NFL, I hate it and hope the league bankrupts itself someday
Every poker player knows the late Chip Reese. Arguably the GOAT poker player. I watched him in an interview posted on Youtube. He stated the only sports betting game he ever beat was MLB. He even admitted that it wasn't him who beat it, but a buddy of his had developed a MLB betting system based solely on math, that was making money.
Of course professional poker players in general are such BS artists, you never know what to believe from them. But I will say this, football and basketball, I have been doing well on. Still making mistakes, but the mistakes have become fewer. MLB however, I was getting destroyed on it last season, and the puzzling thing is, I couldn't figure out why.
On a football or basketball bet, almost always I can evaluate a loss and figure out what I did wrong. But with MLB, I'd think I did everything right, and after the loss, still think I did everything right. I've always been good at math, and for the life of me can't figure out how Chip Reese's buddy was doing it?
Almost like it's scripted/programmed.
That's why I stay away
From the NBA.
I haven't been betting since NFL is winding down, I got tired of betting superstars PRA props, they make it so you have to do multiple players to get any type of reasonable return on any bets and most of the time at least 1 player will fall just shy of a moderate number, which is usually 30 or 35 and so. Many times they get a few points away and they go on the bench or just stop getting points so I literally just stopped doing it since it's 100% just donating
I'll bet the Super Bowl then wait till Baseball, I'm at the point where I believe the NBA is greasier than the NFL, I hate it and hope the league bankrupts itself someday
Every poker player knows the late Chip Reese. Arguably the GOAT poker player. I watched him in an interview posted on Youtube. He stated the only sports betting game he ever beat was MLB. He even admitted that it wasn't him who beat it, but a buddy of his had developed a MLB betting system based solely on math, that was making money.
Of course professional poker players in general are such BS artists, you never know what to believe from them. But I will say this, football and basketball, I have been doing well on. Still making mistakes, but the mistakes have become fewer. MLB however, I was getting destroyed on it last season, and the puzzling thing is, I couldn't figure out why.
On a football or basketball bet, almost always I can evaluate a loss and figure out what I did wrong. But with MLB, I'd think I did everything right, and after the loss, still think I did everything right. I've always been good at math, and for the life of me can't figure out how Chip Reese's buddy was doing it?
I get it
I'm not a math guy and regardless of what any poker player has to say it's luck the majority of the time however I absolutely believe NBA players are taken out before they reach certain numbers from time to time, whether I'm right or wrong I don't care because I'm going to believe what I believe regardless
At least with MLB 99% of the time a hitter is staying in the lineup for his at bats, outside of being pinch hit or taken out for a runner he is going to get his plate appearances, hits, runs and rbi are random. But at least I know the opportunity will be there
Almost like it's scripted/programmed.
That's why I stay away
From the NBA.
I haven't been betting since NFL is winding down, I got tired of betting superstars PRA props, they make it so you have to do multiple players to get any type of reasonable return on any bets and most of the time at least 1 player will fall just shy of a moderate number, which is usually 30 or 35 and so. Many times they get a few points away and they go on the bench or just stop getting points so I literally just stopped doing it since it's 100% just donating
I'll bet the Super Bowl then wait till Baseball, I'm at the point where I believe the NBA is greasier than the NFL, I hate it and hope the league bankrupts itself someday
Every poker player knows the late Chip Reese. Arguably the GOAT poker player. I watched him in an interview posted on Youtube. He stated the only sports betting game he ever beat was MLB. He even admitted that it wasn't him who beat it, but a buddy of his had developed a MLB betting system based solely on math, that was making money.
Of course professional poker players in general are such BS artists, you never know what to believe from them. But I will say this, football and basketball, I have been doing well on. Still making mistakes, but the mistakes have become fewer. MLB however, I was getting destroyed on it last season, and the puzzling thing is, I couldn't figure out why.
On a football or basketball bet, almost always I can evaluate a loss and figure out what I did wrong. But with MLB, I'd think I did everything right, and after the loss, still think I did everything right. I've always been good at math, and for the life of me can't figure out how Chip Reese's buddy was doing it?
I get it
I'm not a math guy and regardless of what any poker player has to say it's luck the majority of the time however I absolutely believe NBA players are taken out before they reach certain numbers from time to time, whether I'm right or wrong I don't care because I'm going to believe what I believe regardless
At least with MLB 99% of the time a hitter is staying in the lineup for his at bats, outside of being pinch hit or taken out for a runner he is going to get his plate appearances, hits, runs and rbi are random. But at least I know the opportunity will be there
I actually try to handicap the NBA games figuring how many minutes a player will get. There are a number of different angles regarding this. One is if there is a blowout, the star player from the winning team, is often not going to get his usual minutes. I've been screwed on that a few times when he's short just a few points for me, with say five minutes left in the game, and the coach takes him out of the game for the right reasons. But that sure doesn't help my over bet.
Frankly, I'll have to disagree to the extent of games being fixed. I believe that 99.99% at least, the games are legit. The moves that say coaches make taking a player out of a game, seem reasonable in my view.
Completely agree about the luck factor. I played a NBA game a few nights ago. For various reasons I handicapped that a usually low minutes bench player would get a lot of minutes. Yes he didn't start, but received almost the same minutes as the starters. I played him at over 6.5, he hits a three midway in the first quarter, I'm then figuring the 6.5 was a lock, and I'm hissed at myself for not playing a higher number to get more value. Well you see it coming, he doesn't score another dam point in the entire dam game. Frankly though, I wasn't upset about it, I handicapped it right, and the player just didn't come thru for me.
One factor I'm learning is that any system can go awry at any time. I killed NCAA BB last season, and was killing it again this season. Then suddenly, the profitable angles I was using stopped working. My bankroll went from up 200% to up only 100% in around three days, mainly because of NCAA BB. Long story short, I just laid off everything, regrouped and re-evaluated some of my strategies. That was the right move, and the bankroll has since improved to up 150%.
My mistake was I had been getting too cocky with the NCAA BB. Rather than being very selective and playing games that I thought were highly in my favor. Instead to get more action, an addict's delight so to speak, I started betting games which I thought were just slightly in my favor, or convincing myself that they were slightly in my favor for the action. Well that cost me, and thankfully I've quickly eliminated that nonsense. Simply back to solid games, and taking advantage of the profit boosts, etc, and the bankroll is now headed again in the right direction. 😊
Sorry for the dissertation. Warning, don't operate heavy machinery when reading my dissertations, it can cause drowsiness and could cause injury. 😂
@Darin said:
I’ve always wondered if he bet $500 instead of $5 how long the dissertation’s would actually be.🤔
When my posts here are a dissertation, usually means I'm in a good mood. If ya notice no dissertations in this sports betting thread from me, then it probably means my allotted bankroll went south.
Sort of like when your beloved Chiefs went belly-up in last season's Super Bowl. You clammed up and went missing from the forum for months. We thought you may have joined a monastery. 😉
Comments
my blind dart throws of the week
bluejay loves Theegala. he had a terrible 2025. it was very bizarre, because he has game. come to find out, he was secretly injured. apparently he's healthy this year, because he just finished T7 and T8 the past two weeks. and he likes the Waste. so i'll gladly ride the hot hand.
Jordan is part homer pick, so be careful if you tail me. he's been my fav golfer since he came out on tour, but he's not the player he once was. that being said, he also likes the Waste. he's finished inside the top 10 the past 3 years. no qualms about betting on him either.
just need one to profit. both would be stupendous.
-5786.61
let me ask you a question, as this is driving me a little crazy. i had to go backward to get to Gotterup's odds for you, and it was a weird figure in the neighborhood of +263
what odds did you get when you locked your bet in?
Jabari Smith over 9.5 points
Probably should have gone higher on this.
Here is best I can figure the odds for top 20.
Start with the payout,before ties.$13.15.
Now deduct initial bet, $5 that you would receive on the win bet of $13.15.
Equals $8.15.
Now divide $8.15 by $5 you come to per each $1 bet odds of 163. 163x$5=$8.15. Add in the initial bet of $5 then that equals $13.15. That is the win amount on the voucher. They do not have the odds on the voucher but do show when you make your pick on the terminal screen.
Now in regard to my top 10 bet that lost one can decipher the odds the same way. My $5 bet would of paid $22.50, again before ties. Minus $5 from $22.50 =$17.50. Divide by $5 equals odds of 350. 350x5 equals the 17.50 actual win devoid of the initial $5 bet.
Now our casino is no longer paying off cents under 5 cents. So if you put in a slot voucher bring owed under that amount it is keeping the cents. Not rounding up. Same theory may be applying to the sports book. I will research that point. Looks like they "ate" my one cent. Why not round up to $9.90? It's a cash transaction. Walmart does it rounds up/ down for cash transactions.
This is how I can best ascertain these questions.
Will let you know about the sports book policy on cents remittances.
Like your picks. Abandoned Thee last week . Thought he would bounce off his previous solid effort.
two more
how can i not bet on Hideki after he's paid me off twice already
and i'm acting on a hunch with BK
-5786.61
Somewhat curious with all this talk about Maye and his shoulder condition that the spread has not changed. Not influenced by the talk one way or the other. Must be alright.
Phoenix Open view. With 3 maybe 4/5 top golfers maybe occupying 5 of the top 20 spots will have to look to other 15 spots. By no means are Scottie,Xander,Hideki all locks tough to rule them out for that consideration. Throw in Brooks and one other then you possibly be looking at only 15 realistic spots to make a play if ignore those 4/5. Suppose could go with the chalk but which one?. At least with these 4/5 the $ will be dispersed somewhat even. But Scottie will garner most of it for top 5/10/20 but ROI will be small.
Why is Koepka positive money for top 20?
Is he not all that good anymore?
I don't follow golf but even I know that name
@perkdog
i got him at +200
edit: Koepka used to be #1 in the world. he's won 5 majors. but like many others who did this, when he made the jump to LIV for the bag, his game deteriorated. outside of the money, he didn't like it. you could tell he wasn't happy and wanted to come back to the PGA Tour where the real competition is. he did just that last month. outside of majors (which he qualified for and played in even when he was at LIV), last week was his first start in a "regular" PGA Tour event in 4 years. his game was not sharp coming into it and he was expected to be as rusty as a nail. plus, the nerves. he admitted himself he was nervous because he didn't know what type of reception he'd receive (guys who drifted to LIV are not looked upon fondly by a lot of fans, and he was the first big name to drift back). so for many reasons, oddsmakers didn't think he'd do much last week, hence his hefty betting figure. he made the cut but finished tied for 56th.
he's back in the field this week at the tour house party -- i mean the Waste Management -- a place he's had a success at before. he won the tournament years ago. as i said up above, i have a hunch that's he's going to play well now that he has a tournament under his belt, so i tossed 50 on him at +200 for T20.
Need SGA under 34.5 points
He has 12 points at halftime
Looking good so far, but he is so explosive, ya never know.
Phoenix Open plays. Top 10/20 on both McNeely and Fitzpatrick.
OKC & San Antonio getting it on again tonight
Thunder -2 at the Spurs' house
Haven't lately been playing OKC as a team, but doing quite well on the individual player stats.
SGA had an off game last night with only 20 points. He may come back with a strong game tonight. Might be an over points play for me.
As for tonight's game score, if anyone can confidently predict that, then perhaps they should be anointed as the modern day Nostradamus. LOL
SGA is out with an injury and that line has swung 5.5 points to San Antonio -3.5
now it's Spurs -9
if i hadn't been so disciplined with my avoidance of the NBA, i could've -- and probably would've -- hopped on San Antonio at +2 or -3.5
-- i mean the Waste Management --
+++ Add an extra day if there's a Holiday during the week for garbage pick up...👌👌👌
Seems like a feeding frenzy. But who's doing the feeding?
Interesting odds for a player whose season average is 10.5
Of course he will get more minutes tonight than usual, but is he capable of capitalizing on it?
We shall see.
ESPN has it at Spurs -10.5
With SGA out everyone will load up on the Spurs
Spurs will promptly lose by a basket or two lol
exactly
Spurs 1Q winner
💸 fly away - LOL
Spurs win by 10
The spread was 9.5 to 10.5
Insane how some of these are spot on
Almost like it's scripted/programmed.
That's why I stay away
From the NBA.
I haven't been betting since NFL is winding down, I got tired of betting superstars PRA props, they make it so you have to do multiple players to get any type of reasonable return on any bets and most of the time at least 1 player will fall just shy of a moderate number, which is usually 30 or 35 and so. Many times they get a few points away and they go on the bench or just stop getting points so I literally just stopped doing it since it's 100% just donating
I'll bet the Super Bowl then wait till Baseball, I'm at the point where I believe the NBA is greasier than the NFL, I hate it and hope the league bankrupts itself someday
Every poker player knows the late Chip Reese. Arguably the GOAT poker player. I watched him in an interview posted on Youtube. He stated the only sports betting game he ever beat was MLB. He even admitted that it wasn't him who beat it, but a buddy of his had developed a MLB betting system based solely on math, that was making money.
Of course professional poker players in general are such BS artists, you never know what to believe from them. But I will say this, football and basketball, I have been doing well on. Still making mistakes, but the mistakes have become fewer. MLB however, I was getting destroyed on it last season, and the puzzling thing is, I couldn't figure out why.
On a football or basketball bet, almost always I can evaluate a loss and figure out what I did wrong. But with MLB, I'd think I did everything right, and after the loss, still think I did everything right. I've always been good at math, and for the life of me can't figure out how Chip Reese's buddy was doing it?
I get it
I'm not a math guy and regardless of what any poker player has to say it's luck the majority of the time however I absolutely believe NBA players are taken out before they reach certain numbers from time to time, whether I'm right or wrong I don't care because I'm going to believe what I believe regardless
At least with MLB 99% of the time a hitter is staying in the lineup for his at bats, outside of being pinch hit or taken out for a runner he is going to get his plate appearances, hits, runs and rbi are random. But at least I know the opportunity will be there
Chip Reese.
Reese's Chips...👍👍👍
Hey GRP….. those big cups suck, the ratio of chocolate to peanut butter is all out of whack!
hey D...
I'm really a Potato Chip Junkie...
That's on one my 520's 🔌🏈...
Wait….. potato chip Reese’s? 🤮
I'll eat a Reese's every now and then but the bottom line is the original will always be the best version, you can't fix or improve perfection lol
Exactly, they make a bunch of different Reese’s products but the original beats them all.
I can’t believe they have a version with potato chips now!
GRP….. congrats on 4000 posts! 🥳🍺
Matt Fitzpatrick fires a smooth 29 on the front 9 to start the tournament
i wonder if there was anyone smart enough to plop some dinero on him?🤔
I actually try to handicap the NBA games figuring how many minutes a player will get. There are a number of different angles regarding this. One is if there is a blowout, the star player from the winning team, is often not going to get his usual minutes. I've been screwed on that a few times when he's short just a few points for me, with say five minutes left in the game, and the coach takes him out of the game for the right reasons. But that sure doesn't help my over bet.
Frankly, I'll have to disagree to the extent of games being fixed. I believe that 99.99% at least, the games are legit. The moves that say coaches make taking a player out of a game, seem reasonable in my view.
Completely agree about the luck factor. I played a NBA game a few nights ago. For various reasons I handicapped that a usually low minutes bench player would get a lot of minutes. Yes he didn't start, but received almost the same minutes as the starters. I played him at over 6.5, he hits a three midway in the first quarter, I'm then figuring the 6.5 was a lock, and I'm hissed at myself for not playing a higher number to get more value. Well you see it coming, he doesn't score another dam point in the entire dam game. Frankly though, I wasn't upset about it, I handicapped it right, and the player just didn't come thru for me.
One factor I'm learning is that any system can go awry at any time. I killed NCAA BB last season, and was killing it again this season. Then suddenly, the profitable angles I was using stopped working. My bankroll went from up 200% to up only 100% in around three days, mainly because of NCAA BB. Long story short, I just laid off everything, regrouped and re-evaluated some of my strategies. That was the right move, and the bankroll has since improved to up 150%.
My mistake was I had been getting too cocky with the NCAA BB. Rather than being very selective and playing games that I thought were highly in my favor. Instead to get more action, an addict's delight so to speak, I started betting games which I thought were just slightly in my favor, or convincing myself that they were slightly in my favor for the action. Well that cost me, and thankfully I've quickly eliminated that nonsense. Simply back to solid games, and taking advantage of the profit boosts, etc, and the bankroll is now headed again in the right direction. 😊
Sorry for the dissertation. Warning, don't operate heavy machinery when reading my dissertations, it can cause drowsiness and could cause injury. 😂
Steve I always enjoy the dissertations lol
I’ve always wondered if he bet $500 instead of $5 how long the dissertation’s would actually be.🤔
😂😂😂😂😂
i'll show you what a 500 buck dissertation looks like
"you know what, f**k this"
💥💣💥
💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸💸
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
As we all know there is a long way to go. When bets start out good you worry about them holding the lead. When they are behind you hope for a rally.
When my posts here are a dissertation, usually means I'm in a good mood. If ya notice no dissertations in this sports betting thread from me, then it probably means my allotted bankroll went south.
Sort of like when your beloved Chiefs went belly-up in last season's Super Bowl. You clammed up and went missing from the forum for months. We thought you may have joined a monastery. 😉
4 Sure those potato chip 1's Are Awesome !!!
Here's the Trade...
You guys Can Have All Of The Reese’s...
I Want The Snickers...And Not This Kind...
I Want The Snickers Board...🔌🏈
Been there, done that.
Now I'm taking it slow and easy, until I feel I'm good enough to hiss in the tall grass with the big dogs. Then I'll let out the ammo a notch. 😎
i'm going to scour the earth for one of these
i've gotta know
There's a search party out looking for Scottie.