I've said this previously that I shouldn't complain about bets I never make that win. Mainly because there's been many times I've passed on bets which lost. That being said, I came within a whisker of simply popping another nickel on Hideki to win it. Long way to go, so I'm not going to worry about it, mainly focus on him getting home in the top 20. But if he wins it, I'd be at least a little bit hissed at myself. The odds were 25-1.
I realize I could still play him to win it, didn't check the odds. Probably still pretty good, but it sure ain't gonna be 25-1. Oh well.
I've said this previously that I shouldn't complain about bets I never make that win. Mainly because there's been many times I've passed on bets which lost. That being said, I came within a whisker of simply popping another nickel on Hideki to win it. Long way to go, so I'm not going to worry about it, mainly focus on him getting home in the top 20. But if he wins it, I'd be at least a little bit hissed at myself. The odds were 25-1.
I realize I could still play him to win it, didn't check the odds. Probably still pretty good, but it sure ain't gonna be 25-1. Oh well.
let me give you a little insight on this tournament that might prove beneficial before you make another move. this is another tournament that is played on multiple tracks. there is a north course and a south course. there is a massive disparity in the difficulty between the two. the north is far easier. today, half the field played the south course and half played the north. those who played the south felt the wrath. Ludvig Aberg was at the top of the tournament favorites and he is sniffing DFL as i speak because he played the south course today. Hideki played the north course today. it was imperative for him to go low, just as many other players on the north did today. tomorrow, the roles will be reversed and he will be on the south. there will be no -8 tomorrow, which is what he shot today. if he can post red numbers, that will be more than adequate.
so far, so very good with our bet. bet there are 54 to go with variables tied in.
I've said this previously that I shouldn't complain about bets I never make that win. Mainly because there's been many times I've passed on bets which lost. That being said, I came within a whisker of simply popping another nickel on Hideki to win it. Long way to go, so I'm not going to worry about it, mainly focus on him getting home in the top 20. But if he wins it, I'd be at least a little bit hissed at myself. The odds were 25-1.
I realize I could still play him to win it, didn't check the odds. Probably still pretty good, but it sure ain't gonna be 25-1. Oh well.
let me give you a little insight on this tournament that might prove beneficial before you make another move. this is another tournament that is played on multiple tracks. there is a north course and a south course. there is a massive disparity in the difficulty between the two. the north is far easier. today, half the field played the south course and half played the north. those who played the south felt the wrath. Ludvig Aberg was at the top of the tournament favorites and he is sniffing DFL as i speak because he played the south course today. Hideki played the north course today. it was imperative for him to go low, just as many other players on the north did today. tomorrow, the roles will be reversed and he will be on the south. there will be no -8 tomorrow, which is what he shot today. if he can post red numbers, that will be more than adequate.
so far, so very good with our bet. bet there are 54 to go with variables tied in.
some useful (less?) info from a golf nerd....
Very interesting. Did not know any of that.
Glad you mentioned it. I'll hold off on spending any what I thought was lock money, until the tourney is over.
i'll be thrilled if he can shoot 2-under tomorrow on the south course and take minus-10 to the weekend. that would be a prime position to cash. round 1 was an A+, but tomorrow is the real test.
Interesting despite the fact that Hideki fell back a bit today, the odds didn't change much. He's at -280 now versus -300 yesterday. Obviously because of what Galaxy explained.
Gotta have a solid day Saturday, to have a good chance on Sunday.
Interesting despite the fact that Hideki fell back a bit today, the odds didn't change much. He's at -280 now versus -300 yesterday. Obviously because of what Galaxy explained.
Gotta have a solid day Saturday, to have a good chance on Sunday.
he didn't play well today, but i wasn't overly surprised -- the course he was on had much to do with that. he fell victim to the south, as many other players had. he went from 7 birdies and an eagle in round one to a lone birdie in round 2. didn't birdie a single par 5, which is not good.
but what is good is the fact that he's right there at T18 with 36 holes left to play
golf bets are brutal -- ebbs and flows over the course of 4 days, and you live and die with each shot
the last two rounds are played on the south course for all who made the cut
The top 20 wagering on Hideki has been locked. There is still top 20 wagering available on a number of others.
Surprising because when wagering is locked, it usually means a situation that is too certain to happen. Yes Hideki looks good for top 20, but I'm not sure about "certain"? Well I hope the bookies computer is correct.
Wagering still available on Hideki at -105 for top 10.
Surprising because when wagering is locked, it usually means a situation that is too certain to happen. Yes Hideki looks good for top 20, but I'm not sure about "certain"? Well I hope the bookies computer is correct.
zero certainty right now
it'll only be a guarantee when he putts out on 18 and is safely inside the top 20, avoiding a dead heat
as i type this, he is one double bogey away from being tied for 18th with 8 other golfers, which would result in me losing a considerable portion of my profit
been down this road far too many times. all it takes is one bad swing when the margin for error is razor thin.
gl us, and gl bluejay (Gotterup is T19 as i type this)
What's the Opening Line that I will be the High Bidder on these Red š„ Peg's š ???
176JohnsonSt typed & posted up to his other crew: I have Weird Base Fetish...Purples for NFC and Reds for AFC or if it's a Prime Time Game and/or a Throw Back Game...Then the Interior 5 OL go with their White TTC Bases...
I could get into further details on: New School Duel Clip Rookie Bases and/or Old School Single Clip Rookie Bases...
Again it's pretty much the same thing with TTC Bases...and still going Old School on with: Dark Green, Light Green, and those Lime Green one's...ššš
Proline's, Itz, and Invis Speed Cleats... ššš
Proline's came about during the Miggle days...No Holes.. Can't use Red š„ Peg's š...
What's the Opening Line that I will be the High Bidder on these Red š„ Peg's š ???
176JohnsonSt typed & posted up to his other crew: I have Weird Base Fetish...Purples for NFC and Reds for AFC or if it's a Prime Time Game and/or a Throw Back Game...Then the Interior 5 OL go with their White TTC Bases...
I could get into further details on: New School Duel Clip Rookie Bases and/or Old School Single Clip Rookie Bases...
Again it's pretty much the same thing with TTC Bases...and still going Old School on with: Dark Green, Light Green, and those Lime Green one's...ššš
Proline's, Itz, and Invis Speed Cleats... ššš
Proline's came about during the Miggle days...No Holes.. Can't use Red š„ Peg's š...
Gotterup hanging on by the proverbial thread. Probably come down to he makes it by 1 for top 20 or out by 1. Been down that road before as well. Let's all score today.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
Looking at the leaderboard, unfortunately there has been a number of players having a monster day who have gone by Hideki. But the good news is the players behind him having a monster day, have just about run out of holes to make up further ground.
So my two cents expert opinion is as long as Hideki simply plays par golf the rest of the way, we will get the money.
I wish I stuck with a simple top. 20 with Hideki so I could sweat it out with you guys but of course I had to do the parlay with Sheff who apparently didn't even make the cut? š
I'm looking at the hole play on 13. Wow, that hole scares the living chit out of me. I may have played it with my putter the entire way just to be safe. LOL
Anyway the good news is he's close to the hole, I think he's still barely on the fairway. Might be on the green, tough to tell from the graphics. Outside shot an an eagle, but a birdie would be just fine with me.
16 viewed in the last 24 hours. Looks like ya got some competition for it.
Knowing how much you enjoy these things, I'm gonna say even money you win it.
I typed to my guy here this morning over on the Bubble š¬ š¬
I probably won't Re-raise...
One thing 4 Sure...if I'm not the High/Winning Bidder...
I would like to see those Bases go to: Capanther, Daryl, Bennster, or a Newbie that's Gettin' Into The Metal Grid Action...š
Capanther I know I would never be able to beat... Way... Way...Too Intimidating w/ his 67 Bigmen & 70 Hogs...
D & Benn...Um... Those Would Be Very Close... {typing/talking like Jimmy The Greek} Lemme tell ya Brent, I'm Giving The Edge To 176JohnsonSt...
Longislandefl...No Problem...his offense schematic's Are Too Tight...
a winner by the skin of our teeth, which is why i said what i did earlier today. i knew it was going to be fluid until Hideki's ball found the bottom of the cup on 18. if he had 3-jacked from 24 feet on the final hole, he would have slid into a dead heat (at least my wager would have), and my payout would have been vastly different. idk if you guys are faced with dead heat rules when it comes to top 5, 10 or 20 golf wagers, but i am. you see it at the bottom every time i post one of mine.
Gotterup finished a shot back and was involved in one. if there is anyone (Bueller? Bueller? anyone?
Bueller?) who is interested in the calculations, let's delve into his situation. initially, the math will wreck your mind until you gain a firm understanding of it. i will try to make this as minimally confusing as i possibly can, but i'll probably fall short.
idk what Gotterup's T20 odds were prior to the tournament, but for the sake of simplicity let's say he was +200. well, he finished tied for 18th with 3 other golfers. that means the last 3 spots in the top 20 -- 18th place, 19th place and 20th place -- were attempted to be used up by 4 golfers. that obviously won't work, hence the dead heater. you take the number of available spots and divide that figure by the number of golfers. in this case, 3/4, or 75%. that represents the percent of your bet that's still alive. the other 25% is gone. for the sake of this example, we'll say we bet 100 on Gotterup. so, $75 is still in play. the other 25 was lost due to the dead heat.
you then take the 75 and multiply it by Gotterup's odds, which were +200. you doubled up........75 x 2 = 150. of course you get the amount you wagered back, so 75 + 150 for a total payout of 225. subtract the 25 you lost and your net figure is 200. thus when the dust settled, you won $100 on your $100 bet.
avoiding the dead heat would have been a $200 winner, quite obviously. so having to share 3 spots with 3 other golfers at +200 when you wagered $100 resulted in 100 fewer dollars won.
if you read that, understood it and didn't slip into a coma, de nada
a winner by the skin of our teeth, which is why i said what i did earlier today. i knew it was going to be fluid until Hideki's ball found the bottom of the cup on 18. if he had 3-jacked from 24 feet on the final hole, he would have slid into a dead heat (at least my wager would have), and my payout would have been vastly different. idk if you guys are faced with dead heat rules when it comes to top 5, 10 or 20 golf wagers, but i am. you see it at the bottom every time i post one of mine.
Gotterup finished a shot back and was involved in one. if there is anyone (Bueller? Bueller? anyone?
Bueller?) who is interested in the calculations, let's delve into his situation. initially, the math will wreck your mind until you gain a firm understanding of it. i will try to make this as minimally confusing as i possibly can, but i'll probably fall short.
idk what Gotterup's T20 odds were prior to the tournament, but for the sake of simplicity let's say he was +200. well, he finished tied for 18th with 3 other golfers. that means the last 3 spots in the top 20 -- 18th place, 19th place and 20th place -- were attempted to be used up by 4 golfers. that obviously won't work, hence the dead heater. you take the number of available spots and divide that figure by the number of golfers. in this case, 3/4, or 75%. that represents the percent of your bet that's still alive. the other 25% is gone. for the sake of this example, we'll say we bet 100 on Gotterup. so, $75 is still in play. the other 25 was lost due to the dead heat.
you then take the 75 and multiply it by Gotterup's odds, which were +200. you doubled up........75 x 2 = 150. that's how much the bet won. of course you get the amount you wagered back, so 75 + 150 for a total payout of 225. subtract the 25 you lost and your net figure is 200. thus when the dust settled, you won $100 on your $100 bet.
avoiding the dead heat would have been a $200 winner, quite obviously. so having to share 3 spots with 3 other golfers at a price of +200 when you wagered $100 resulted in 100 fewer dollars won.
if you read that, understood it and didn't slip into a coma, de nada
Completely understand. I don't plan to check your math on this particular BLUEJAYWAY payout, but I did see what you saw.
Without going into specific numbers. When I made the golf bet last week, my first golf bet ever with a book, I noticed that my odds were worse than the other posted odds for the exact same bet. Same this week. One was significantly worse. Considering my small wagers, because I'm still in the "test phase" of my little sports betting project, I wasn't worried about the money. That being said, I wasn't happy about it, and if I ever decide to deposit much higher stakes, I certainly wasn't going to use this particular book, at least on golf wagers.
It wasn't making sense to me why this big name US book would do something like this? IE not being competitive with odds on a major sport? Then it dawned on me a few days ago. It was years ago, I can't recall if it was here or another forum, reading someone's post about how they were unhappy about winning one of those top 5, 10, 20, or whatever it was golf bets, and not getting paid in full. IE having to split up the money as you explained. So I glanced at my particular bet and noticed the wording of "TOP 20 FINISH (INCL. TIES) right underneath Hidecki's name. They also repeated it with "Top 20 Finish Including Ties" underneath that.
So at this point I'm taking I think a good guess, that for whatever reason, probably because of past complaints, the book I use decided to adjust the offered odds to a lower payout, but payoff in full the offered odds including on multiple players who are tied for 20th. Versus another book which has posted rules in fine print about splitting up the payoff on those multiple winners at 20th place.
I could understand both bookies points of view on this. No criticism of it either way.
BTW - this isn't exactly unique to golf wagering. I think most likely know that at the horse track, when there is a dead head for win. The track doesn't payoff the closing odds. The betting pool is split between the two horses, and the payoff odds adjusted downward accordingly. Sometimes when this happens, the horses pay more for place than they do to win.
@stevek that definitely explains the disparity. your book allows ties.........it just adjusts the odds accordingly. it would be an interesting exercise to see if there's a perceived advantage either way. my hope is that bluejay's treats it the same way yours does. i was watching Gotterup's position on the leaderboard as well and i was rooting for a clean landing spot inside the top 20
a winner by the skin of our teeth, which is why i said what i did earlier today. i knew it was going to be fluid until Hideki's ball found the bottom of the cup on 18. if he had 3-jacked from 24 feet on the final hole, he would have slid into a dead heat (at least my wager would have), and my payout would have been vastly different. idk if you guys are faced with dead heat rules when it comes to top 5, 10 or 20 golf wagers, but i am. you see it at the bottom every time i post one of mine.
Gotterup finished a shot back and was involved in one. if there is anyone (Bueller? Bueller? anyone?
Bueller?) who is interested in the calculations, let's delve into his situation. initially, the math will wreck your mind until you gain a firm understanding of it. i will try to make this as minimally confusing as i possibly can, but i'll probably fall short.
idk what Gotterup's T20 odds were prior to the tournament, but for the sake of simplicity let's say he was +200. well, he finished tied for 18th with 3 other golfers. that means the last 3 spots in the top 20 -- 18th place, 19th place and 20th place -- were attempted to be used up by 4 golfers. that obviously won't work, hence the dead heater. you take the number of available spots and divide that figure by the number of golfers. in this case, 3/4, or 75%. that represents the percent of your bet that's still alive. the other 25% is gone. for the sake of this example, we'll say we bet 100 on Gotterup. so, $75 is still in play. the other 25 was lost due to the dead heat.
you then take the 75 and multiply it by Gotterup's odds, which were +200. you doubled up........75 x 2 = 150. of course you get the amount you wagered back, so 75 + 150 for a total payout of 225. subtract the 25 you lost and your net figure is 200. thus when the dust settled, you won $100 on your $100 bet.
avoiding the dead heat would have been a $200 winner, quite obviously. so having to share 3 spots with 3 other golfers at +200 when you wagered $100 resulted in 100 fewer dollars won.
if you read that, understood it and didn't slip into a coma, de nada
Here's the line on my Gotterup bets. Top 10 $22.50 for $5 and $13.15 for my $5. However, my winning amount was $9.85 for top 20. So I was cut due to ties.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
Here's the line on my Gotterup bets. Top 10 $22.50 for $5 and $13.15 for my $5. However, my winning amount was $9.85 for top 20. So I was cut due to ties.
if you wagered 5 to win 13.15, that means your odds were roughly +263
your book's dead heat rules are the same as mine:
.75 x 5 = 3.75
3.75 x 2.63 = 9.86
sorry it wasn't a clean win, but it was a win nonetheless
sometimes when you yap too much you're prone to mistakes. i guess that's why the KISS principle was created............keep it simple, stupid. there were errors with my lengthy example yesterday, so i'm going to revisit it and be more concise, this time with my own bet.
i had Hideki at +150. fortunately, he finished safely inside the top 20. $150 winner.
had he finished tied for 18th with 3 other golfers, my $100 bet would have been reduced to $75. (3 spots divided by 4 players = 75% of the initial bet amount.) multiply the new figure by his odds and you get 75 x 1.5 = $112.50.
so in this scenario, sliding into a dead heat would have cost me $37.50. (150 - 112.50)
and that's how blue's payout was calculated:
he had Gotterup at +263ish based on what he conveyed. so his $5 bet would have won $13.15.
because he tied for 18th with three other golfers, his $5 was reduced to $3.75. remember, 75% of the initial bet. so he won 3.75 x 2.63 = $9.86 instead. (blue said the actual figure was $9.85.)
only reasons i'm belaboring this are: 1) this is a gambling thread, after all.......2) just in case it applies to someone dealing with a dead heat golf bet from this point forward...........and 3) just in case anyone cares
@galaxy27 said:
sometimes when you yap too much you're prone to mistakes. i guess that's why the KISS principle was created............keep it simple, stupid. there were errors with my lengthy example yesterday, so i'm going to revisit it and be more concise, this time with my own bet.
i had Hideki at +150. fortunately, he finished safely inside the top 20. $150 winner.
had he finished tied for 18th with 3 other golfers, my $100 bet would have been reduced to $75. (3 spots divided by 4 players = 75% of the initial bet amount.) multiply the new figure by his odds and you get 75 x 1.5 = $112.50.
so in this scenario, sliding into a dead heat would have cost me $37.50. (150 - 112.50)
and that's how blue's payout was calculated:
he had Gotterup at +263ish based on what he conveyed. so his $5 bet would have won $13.15.
because he tied for 18th with three other golfers, his $5 was reduced to $3.75. remember, 75% of the initial bet. so he won 3.75 x 2.63 = $9.86 instead. (blue said the actual figure was $9.85.)
only reasons i'm belaboring this are: 1) this is a gambling thread, after all.......2) just in case it applies to someone dealing with a dead heat golf bet from this point forward...........and 3) just in case anyone cares
Well stated. This will help going forward as I seem to land in the ties a fair amount of time. Can refer back to this explanation.
BTW I am going back to the book to get that 1 cent they owe me and will be using your formula as evidence.š
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
Early odds for Phoenix Open. Scottie the fav,of course,opens at 215. Everyone else double numbers starting with Xander 20-1. Some nice odds if Scottie comes up short.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@galaxy27 said:
sometimes when you yap too much you're prone to mistakes. i guess that's why the KISS principle was created............keep it simple, stupid. there were errors with my lengthy example yesterday, so i'm going to revisit it and be more concise, this time with my own bet.
i had Hideki at +150. fortunately, he finished safely inside the top 20. $150 winner.
had he finished tied for 18th with 3 other golfers, my $100 bet would have been reduced to $75. (3 spots divided by 4 players = 75% of the initial bet amount.) multiply the new figure by his odds and you get 75 x 1.5 = $112.50.
so in this scenario, sliding into a dead heat would have cost me $37.50. (150 - 112.50)
and that's how blue's payout was calculated:
he had Gotterup at +263ish based on what he conveyed. so his $5 bet would have won $13.15.
because he tied for 18th with three other golfers, his $5 was reduced to $3.75. remember, 75% of the initial bet. so he won 3.75 x 2.63 = $9.86 instead. (blue said the actual figure was $9.85.)
only reasons i'm belaboring this are: 1) this is a gambling thread, after all.......2) just in case it applies to someone dealing with a dead heat golf bet from this point forward...........and 3) just in case anyone cares
Well stated. This will help going forward as I seem to land in the ties a fair amount of time. Can refer back to this explanation.
BTW I am going back to the book to get that 1 cent they owe me and will be using your formula as evidence.š
I did the math every which way but loose, and can't figure out how they got to $9.85? Should have been $9.86
Comments
Secretly received an insider tip on the upcoming golf tourney, so I played it:
whoever gave you that info must be sagacious and aesthetically pleasing to the eyeball
Iron Man... That's my guy...
šļøšŖš....
Yeah. No doubt some boo bird fans looking forward to his return.
Interesting to see how Brooks will be welcomed back to the fold.
Added play. Farmers Gotterup top 20 with 45.5 over in SB for a parlay.
Great day on the way. SB Sunday and final round of the Phoenix Open. What a combo.
speaking of BK, the only thing that would have made this tweet better is if he had called him Cantgetlaid
Hideki thru 17 is now in 4th place.
I've said this previously that I shouldn't complain about bets I never make that win. Mainly because there's been many times I've passed on bets which lost. That being said, I came within a whisker of simply popping another nickel on Hideki to win it. Long way to go, so I'm not going to worry about it, mainly focus on him getting home in the top 20. But if he wins it, I'd be at least a little bit hissed at myself. The odds were 25-1.
I realize I could still play him to win it, didn't check the odds. Probably still pretty good, but it sure ain't gonna be 25-1. Oh well.
let me give you a little insight on this tournament that might prove beneficial before you make another move. this is another tournament that is played on multiple tracks. there is a north course and a south course. there is a massive disparity in the difficulty between the two. the north is far easier. today, half the field played the south course and half played the north. those who played the south felt the wrath. Ludvig Aberg was at the top of the tournament favorites and he is sniffing DFL as i speak because he played the south course today. Hideki played the north course today. it was imperative for him to go low, just as many other players on the north did today. tomorrow, the roles will be reversed and he will be on the south. there will be no -8 tomorrow, which is what he shot today. if he can post red numbers, that will be more than adequate.
so far, so very good with our bet. bet there are 54 to go with variables tied in.
some useful (less?) info from a golf nerd....
Very interesting. Did not know any of that.
Glad you mentioned it. I'll hold off on spending any what I thought was lock money, until the tourney is over.
Hideki did pick up another stroke on 18. š
@stevek
i'll be thrilled if he can shoot 2-under tomorrow on the south course and take minus-10 to the weekend. that would be a prime position to cash. round 1 was an A+, but tomorrow is the real test.
gl us š¤
I saw where Hideki is now -300 to finish in the top 20. Certainly not lock odds by any means.
But considering I'm in at +138, no complaints.
Wouldn't mind seeing him -1000 tomorrow after the second round.
round 1 scoring:
north - 69.139
south - 72.482
Interesting despite the fact that Hideki fell back a bit today, the odds didn't change much. He's at -280 now versus -300 yesterday. Obviously because of what Galaxy explained.
Gotta have a solid day Saturday, to have a good chance on Sunday.
he didn't play well today, but i wasn't overly surprised -- the course he was on had much to do with that. he fell victim to the south, as many other players had. he went from 7 birdies and an eagle in round one to a lone birdie in round 2. didn't birdie a single par 5, which is not good.
but what is good is the fact that he's right there at T18 with 36 holes left to play
golf bets are brutal -- ebbs and flows over the course of 4 days, and you live and die with each shot
the last two rounds are played on the south course for all who made the cut
I was thinking about popping the top 20 some more, and maybe even the 10 and 5.
Yes, I know I'm not gonna do it, just pondering.
The top 20 wagering on Hideki has been locked. There is still top 20 wagering available on a number of others.
Surprising because when wagering is locked, it usually means a situation that is too certain to happen. Yes Hideki looks good for top 20, but I'm not sure about "certain"? Well I hope the bookies computer is correct.
Wagering still available on Hideki at -105 for top 10.
zero certainty right now
it'll only be a guarantee when he putts out on 18 and is safely inside the top 20, avoiding a dead heat
as i type this, he is one double bogey away from being tied for 18th with 8 other golfers, which would result in me losing a considerable portion of my profit
been down this road far too many times. all it takes is one bad swing when the margin for error is razor thin.
gl us, and gl bluejay (Gotterup is T19 as i type this)
They were offering +4100 odds for Koepka to finish in top 20
I didn't touch it because no way they would offer that unless it was extremely unlikely
k, Odd's-Maker's...
What's the Opening Line that I will be the High Bidder on these Red š„ Peg's š ???
176JohnsonSt typed & posted up to his other crew: I have Weird Base Fetish...Purples for NFC and Reds for AFC or if it's a Prime Time Game and/or a Throw Back Game...Then the Interior 5 OL go with their White TTC Bases...
I could get into further details on: New School Duel Clip Rookie Bases and/or Old School Single Clip Rookie Bases...
Again it's pretty much the same thing with TTC Bases...and still going Old School on with: Dark Green, Light Green, and those Lime Green one's...ššš
Proline's, Itz, and Invis Speed Cleats... ššš
Proline's came about during the Miggle days...No Holes.. Can't use Red š„ Peg's š...
šš
https://www.ebay.com/itm/366163121260?_skw=16+vintage+tudor+electric&itmmeta=01KGDCA8RSV9EHN9VZZGRCDPMY&hash=item554105d46c:g:AP4AAeSw8gJpfSyf&itmprp=enc:AQALAAAA8O7PUuNWmJ++UShgI9tQz/pY9GNIutKwSKevvmU+C7jimd8HUcHIgmASI4LQ9T+eOXOFW89BJemd9RcxjbfPuNCV/Uv+XLzuJgZ+R3rq3/lav7/KuU3qzjb1RT4PaLCt35jbISxr2BP/OYtM9ZOvqem4Jh8tRbdcc9C+7GCeCvJuvP226hc/nYG6ivthEwMoelFIQ3P85uGu/3Z9EJJFEIl+JM9Nf9HjP9hIfifmCw6Jb/Wl9S/X6VUvBJ2UR8CqrEXyLOBmsWpNTy8zMfTj2ZboI89QI7S4GusKcwkrcJJXWCS8sOYjNpERRab06k52Jg==|tkp:Bk9SR8iMqayDZw
16 viewed in the last 24 hours. Looks like ya got some competition for it.
Knowing how much you enjoy these things, I'm gonna say even money you win it.
Gotterup hanging on by the proverbial thread. Probably come down to he makes it by 1 for top 20 or out by 1. Been down that road before as well. Let's all score today.
Gotterup has made a nice move.
With Hideki, I'm close to having an oh-chit moment. He just bogeyed a hole. Thru 11. he's now got zero room for error. š
Looking at the leaderboard, unfortunately there has been a number of players having a monster day who have gone by Hideki. But the good news is the players behind him having a monster day, have just about run out of holes to make up further ground.
So my two cents expert opinion is as long as Hideki simply plays par golf the rest of the way, we will get the money.
I wish I stuck with a simple top. 20 with Hideki so I could sweat it out with you guys but of course I had to do the parlay with Sheff who apparently didn't even make the cut? š
I'm looking at the hole play on 13. Wow, that hole scares the living chit out of me. I may have played it with my putter the entire way just to be safe. LOL
Anyway the good news is he's close to the hole, I think he's still barely on the fairway. Might be on the green, tough to tell from the graphics. Outside shot an an eagle, but a birdie would be just fine with me.
Nailed that birdie š
Red š„ Peg's š...
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I typed to my guy here this morning over on the Bubble š¬ š¬
I probably won't Re-raise...
One thing 4 Sure...if I'm not the High/Winning Bidder...
I would like to see those Bases go to: Capanther, Daryl, Bennster, or a Newbie that's Gettin' Into The Metal Grid Action...š
Capanther I know I would never be able to beat... Way... Way...Too Intimidating w/ his 67 Bigmen & 70 Hogs...
D & Benn...Um... Those Would Be Very Close... {typing/talking like Jimmy The Greek} Lemme tell ya Brent, I'm Giving The Edge To 176JohnsonSt...
Longislandefl...No Problem...his offense schematic's Are Too Tight...
šš
šš...
300 yards off the tee, I think he's in the right fairway bunker.
Please don't do this to me, I'm beggin' ya.
Yes, he was in the bunker and chipped safely out of it. Par might be tough, but even a bogey is okay at this point on the final hole.
Atta boy, on the green in three on a par 5.
Pay me bookie. š²
@stevek
a winner by the skin of our teeth, which is why i said what i did earlier today. i knew it was going to be fluid until Hideki's ball found the bottom of the cup on 18. if he had 3-jacked from 24 feet on the final hole, he would have slid into a dead heat (at least my wager would have), and my payout would have been vastly different. idk if you guys are faced with dead heat rules when it comes to top 5, 10 or 20 golf wagers, but i am. you see it at the bottom every time i post one of mine.
Gotterup finished a shot back and was involved in one. if there is anyone (Bueller? Bueller? anyone?
Bueller?) who is interested in the calculations, let's delve into his situation. initially, the math will wreck your mind until you gain a firm understanding of it. i will try to make this as minimally confusing as i possibly can, but i'll probably fall short.
idk what Gotterup's T20 odds were prior to the tournament, but for the sake of simplicity let's say he was +200. well, he finished tied for 18th with 3 other golfers. that means the last 3 spots in the top 20 -- 18th place, 19th place and 20th place -- were attempted to be used up by 4 golfers. that obviously won't work, hence the dead heater. you take the number of available spots and divide that figure by the number of golfers. in this case, 3/4, or 75%. that represents the percent of your bet that's still alive. the other 25% is gone. for the sake of this example, we'll say we bet 100 on Gotterup. so, $75 is still in play. the other 25 was lost due to the dead heat.
you then take the 75 and multiply it by Gotterup's odds, which were +200. you doubled up........75 x 2 = 150. of course you get the amount you wagered back, so 75 + 150 for a total payout of 225. subtract the 25 you lost and your net figure is 200. thus when the dust settled, you won $100 on your $100 bet.
avoiding the dead heat would have been a $200 winner, quite obviously. so having to share 3 spots with 3 other golfers at +200 when you wagered $100 resulted in 100 fewer dollars won.
if you read that, understood it and didn't slip into a coma, de nada
Completely understand. I don't plan to check your math on this particular BLUEJAYWAY payout, but I did see what you saw.
Without going into specific numbers. When I made the golf bet last week, my first golf bet ever with a book, I noticed that my odds were worse than the other posted odds for the exact same bet. Same this week. One was significantly worse. Considering my small wagers, because I'm still in the "test phase" of my little sports betting project, I wasn't worried about the money. That being said, I wasn't happy about it, and if I ever decide to deposit much higher stakes, I certainly wasn't going to use this particular book, at least on golf wagers.
It wasn't making sense to me why this big name US book would do something like this? IE not being competitive with odds on a major sport? Then it dawned on me a few days ago. It was years ago, I can't recall if it was here or another forum, reading someone's post about how they were unhappy about winning one of those top 5, 10, 20, or whatever it was golf bets, and not getting paid in full. IE having to split up the money as you explained. So I glanced at my particular bet and noticed the wording of "TOP 20 FINISH (INCL. TIES) right underneath Hidecki's name. They also repeated it with "Top 20 Finish Including Ties" underneath that.
So at this point I'm taking I think a good guess, that for whatever reason, probably because of past complaints, the book I use decided to adjust the offered odds to a lower payout, but payoff in full the offered odds including on multiple players who are tied for 20th. Versus another book which has posted rules in fine print about splitting up the payoff on those multiple winners at 20th place.
I could understand both bookies points of view on this. No criticism of it either way.
BTW - this isn't exactly unique to golf wagering. I think most likely know that at the horse track, when there is a dead head for win. The track doesn't payoff the closing odds. The betting pool is split between the two horses, and the payoff odds adjusted downward accordingly. Sometimes when this happens, the horses pay more for place than they do to win.
@stevek that definitely explains the disparity. your book allows ties.........it just adjusts the odds accordingly. it would be an interesting exercise to see if there's a perceived advantage either way. my hope is that bluejay's treats it the same way yours does. i was watching Gotterup's position on the leaderboard as well and i was rooting for a clean landing spot inside the top 20
Here's the line on my Gotterup bets. Top 10 $22.50 for $5 and $13.15 for my $5. However, my winning amount was $9.85 for top 20. So I was cut due to ties.
if you wagered 5 to win 13.15, that means your odds were roughly +263
your book's dead heat rules are the same as mine:
.75 x 5 = 3.75
3.75 x 2.63 = 9.86
sorry it wasn't a clean win, but it was a win nonetheless
good bet bud, Gotterup is a solid player
Love the dissertations going on in here!!!
Still almost doubled your money on that bet. That's never shabby. š
Need SGA for points over 23.5
He's got 15 at halftime, should get there.
Would wrap up a fairly good weekend, although I'm still down from my all-time bankroll high.
Put up $10 total bet got back $9.85. Least no taxes.š
Looking forward to Phoenix next week.
sometimes when you yap too much you're prone to mistakes. i guess that's why the KISS principle was created............keep it simple, stupid. there were errors with my lengthy example yesterday, so i'm going to revisit it and be more concise, this time with my own bet.
i had Hideki at +150. fortunately, he finished safely inside the top 20. $150 winner.
had he finished tied for 18th with 3 other golfers, my $100 bet would have been reduced to $75. (3 spots divided by 4 players = 75% of the initial bet amount.) multiply the new figure by his odds and you get 75 x 1.5 = $112.50.
so in this scenario, sliding into a dead heat would have cost me $37.50. (150 - 112.50)
and that's how blue's payout was calculated:
he had Gotterup at +263ish based on what he conveyed. so his $5 bet would have won $13.15.
because he tied for 18th with three other golfers, his $5 was reduced to $3.75. remember, 75% of the initial bet. so he won 3.75 x 2.63 = $9.86 instead. (blue said the actual figure was $9.85.)
only reasons i'm belaboring this are: 1) this is a gambling thread, after all.......2) just in case it applies to someone dealing with a dead heat golf bet from this point forward...........and 3) just in case anyone cares
34 š¤
Well stated. This will help going forward as I seem to land in the ties a fair amount of time. Can refer back to this explanation.
BTW I am going back to the book to get that 1 cent they owe me and will be using your formula as evidence.š
BTW with Gotterup hitting top 20 my parlay is alive with the over 45.5 in the SB.
Early odds for Phoenix Open. Scottie the fav,of course,opens at 215. Everyone else double numbers starting with Xander 20-1. Some nice odds if Scottie comes up short.
I did the math every which way but loose, and can't figure out how they got to $9.85? Should have been $9.86
A class action lawsuit may be in order. š
Galaxy seen today, working on handicapping the upcoming golf tournament