@nags said:
What actual data, not speculation, indicates that a higher percentage of holders have taken, or will take, delivery? From what I can find, the percentage is essentially the same, but the total deliveries have increased somewhat due to the much higher total number of contracts (due to large amounts of speculation).
I'm no expert in such things and don't fully understand the dynamics but this is one pundit's answer;
"This shortage of metal seems to have created an unusual setup in COMEX futures, as investors appear to be moving March contracts backward to January and February."
I’m not claiming expertise here — just pointing to what the data seems to show.
Several analysts have noted an unusual pattern in COMEX silver: large numbers of
March contracts are being rolled backward into January and February. That’s not
normal behavior. Under typical conditions, traders roll contracts forward to avoid
delivery. Rolling backward implies the opposite — people want metal sooner, not
later.
For example, one report notes that open interest in the Jan/Feb contracts rose by
about 3,000 contracts on the same day the March contract fell by almost the same
amount. That near‑perfect match strongly suggests backward rolling, which is
usually interpreted as tightness in the physical market.
Another report describes accelerating withdrawals from COMEX vaults and a growing
physical shortfall in London, which lines up with the same pattern of stress in
the delivery system.
None of this proves a higher percentage of holders will take delivery — but it
does show that more people are positioning themselves to take metal sooner, and
that’s the part I was referring to. Backwardation is one of the signals analysts
use to infer that kind of pressure.
🌿 Why this works
It stays modest: “I’m not an expert, here’s what the data suggests.”
It cites the actual reporting you found.
It explains backwardation in plain language without overclaiming.
It answers nags’ question directly: not percentages, but behavior patterns.
It keeps your tone: calm, factual, and structurally grounded.
If you want, I can help you craft a shorter shard‑version for later in the thread.
Speculation? Common sense dictates that when there is a supply issue with something you depend on, you hoard. There are a lot of industries that depend on a steady supply of raw silver. Remember all the people that hoarded toilet paper when there was a preceived shortage coming? Along with greed and fear, perception is what drives markets. Doesn't matter if there is a silver supply issue. What matters is the fear/perception in the silver market of a supply issue thanks to geopolitical events such as China restricting exports, the US declaring it a critical metal, and the fear and greed that have driven prices to new highs.
The CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) which operates the COMEX increased margin requirements on its precious metal contracts several times last year, as the rally gathered steam, the volume of speculative trading activity picked up, and volatility spiked. The CME will implement with the close of Today's trading a new approach to setting margins based on a percentage of so-called notional. Previously, they were based on a dollar amount. Analyists expect the change to weigh in on PM prices in the near term.
_Perception drives markets, yes — but perception doesn’t float free.
Fear and greed keep people in their lanes, but only until the light
changes. When the signal shifts from “caution” to “something’s wrong,”
perception snaps to the underlying reality very quickly.
That’s why supply issues matter even when people pretend they don’t.
Perception can ignore fundamentals for a while, but it can’t outrun them
forever. When the gap gets too wide, the correction isn’t gradual — it’s
instant.
🌿 Why this works
It agrees with derryb’s premise without surrendering yours.
It reframes perception as reactive, not sovereign.
It introduces the idea of a signal change — your yellow‑light metaphor becomes structural.
It hints at the physical tightness in silver without making claims you don’t want to make.
It keeps your tone: calm, observational, and grounded._
Me- The problem is that the refineries can't supply all the new demand. It will take a couple years of melting silver I believe. Building capacity is risky because there are several ways the backlog can dissipate leaving new capacity idle. Some increase is likely but the buying is likely to persist because even at $90 / Ot silver is still cheap compared to total world GDP. It's a very tiny fraction of all the money in the world.
It's a strange situation that is unlikely to repeat for a very long time.
$94 is the magic number. If demand can push it above this then the "wack a molers" will lose control just like they did at $53. Hit $94 and hold it then you'll quickly see $100.
This will kick in a wave of paper selling that can drop the price hard but it can't last because physical buyers will regain the upper hand in short order and then...
@derryb said:
$94 is the magic number. If demand can push it above this then the "wack a molers" will lose control just like they did at $53. Hit $94 and hold it then you'll quickly see $100.
This will kick in a wave of paper selling that can drop the price hard but it can't last because physical buyers will regain the upper hand in short order and then...
Silver owners (those who can sell) come in various stripes and it looks like collectors and coin dealers have already sold much of their silver; probably more than half. A lot of the rest are silver stackers and I doubt they're going to sell very fast. The first slow down in supply to refiners will happen in 8 to 10 months, I'd guess (the backlog will peak). If the price has achieved any type of stability the slow down could push it higher again because buyers aren't likely to be very patient in this atmosphere.
There's still lots of silver and no danger of shutting things down for at least 10 years so this is more a long term problem. But buyers are concerned about delivery next month because they now realize the silver isn't in the mines or the pipeline. It's in the hands of millions of Americans and more millions of foreigners all over the world. I doubt it will be necessary but governments can always step in to procure silver to keep things running. If people keep their wits this will be a smooth enough transition but the word "panic" was invented specifically to describe what people actually do instead.
Silver simply needs to move from the 10 or 20 million people who have it to the thousands of companies that need it to keep running. Since they won't keep their heads watch for a crazy move followed by a massive crash. It could be at hand but the crash should bring us down to the $130 level. It's going to be volatile for a time starting now.
Or I'm all wrong and we'll crash from here. There will be a great buying opportunity whether it's at 50 or 130 remains to be seen. Silver will remain a long term hold for as much as the next 20 years. If interest rates decline and the economy doesn't grow remarkably then that would signal gold buying or trading silver for gold.
We live in interesting times. Because we pretended the status quo was acceptable for so long. We were destroying ourselves and pennies were the symptom and the Comex one of many causes.
Getting out house in order will pay dividends quickly so I'm feeling much more hope than despair. If we don't succeed there's nothing else to buy anyway that will be valued in the long term. How long can you keep a warehouse full of knives and axes until the day they are the measure of wealth. Godspeed
Comex doesn't have to deliver a single ounce of gutter metal. They can settle in cash. Just another doomsday bunker fantasy.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
If spot price were to increase sharply because of lack of metal or if a significant premium appeared for physical people could take delivery in droves. There appears tobe increasing closing of current contracts for the next month. This might represent the sentiment of numerous individuals rather than merely a few. These could be waiting to take delivery in the event of a price spike.
Copilot-
...
Silver needs to move from the 10–20 million people who hold it to the thousands
of companies that need it to keep operating. That transfer won’t be smooth.
Expect a sharp move up followed by a violent crash. A drop to around $130
wouldn’t surprise me. Or we could crash from here. Either way, there will be a
major buying opportunity—whether it’s at $50 or $130 is the only question.
Silver remains a long‑term hold for the next couple of decades.
If interest rates fall and the economy doesn’t grow meaningfully, that’s the
signal to rotate into gold or trade silver for gold. We’re living through a
reset because we pretended the old system was sustainable. Pennies were the
symptom; the Comex was one of the causes.
If we get our house in order, the benefits will show up quickly. If we don’t,
there’s nothing else left to buy that holds long‑term value. You can only store
so many knives and axes before they become the measure of wealth again.
@blitzdude said:
Comex doesn't have to deliver a single ounce of gutter metal. They can settle in cash. Just another doomsday bunker fantasy.
They are supposed to deliver on demand. It's always been assumed that there is an infinite supply of silver and so much was wasted that they could always issue new promises and new paper if a shortfall ever existed. It hasn't worked out that way. We are living hand to mouth in a world that isn't keeping up with industrial demand. The irony being that there is enough in the pipeline for everybody if we all cooperate. But users are scared that physical will dry up and even companies that need very little won't be able to source it.
This is a structural problem and many exist right now. If you're skeered buy gold. That's what it's for. Anyone who ain't scared since the dawn of time is some kind of fool.
Copilot (all above as prompt)-
_COMEX can settle in cash, yes, but the system is built on the assumption that
physical delivery is always possible when demanded. That assumption only works
when the underlying metal is abundant and easily sourced. For decades that was
true because silver was treated as effectively infinite and a huge amount of it
was wasted or discarded.
What’s changed is the industrial side. We’re running close to the edge of
supply, not because the earth is out of silver, but because the pipeline isn’t
keeping up with demand. There’s enough metal for everyone if the flow stays
smooth, but users are worried that physical availability could tighten. Even
companies that need small amounts are starting to think about securing supply
ahead of time.
That’s a structural issue, not a bunker fantasy. If someone is nervous about
that kind of uncertainty, gold has always been the traditional hedge. Fear
isn’t irrational here — it’s been part of human risk‑management since the
beginning._
It occurs to me that there are numerous things that can be done to discourage buying or encourage selling but nothing can bring silver to market faster than the processes already in place. If government wants to step in the best thing they can do is to not only say they will encourage production for the future but then actually do it. This will calm panicky buyers as long as they believe silver is coming. This isn't a problem with silver it's a problem of sentiment.
Imagine some plateau is reached ands then total mine production is actually down next year! Buyers need to know someone has their backs. Godspeed
There are plenty of ways to discourage buying or encourage selling, but nothing
can make physical silver appear faster than the production and refining
capacity that already exists. The flow is what it is. If a government wants to
step in, the most effective thing it can do is signal clearly that it intends
to support future production—and then follow through. That alone can steady
sentiment, because buyers respond to expectations as much as to actual supply.
Right now the issue isn’t the amount of silver in the world. It’s the mood of
the market. If production hits a plateau and then declines the following year,
even slightly, buyers will react to the direction rather than the absolute
numbers. People want to know that someone is thinking ahead and that the supply
chain won’t be left to chance.
This is a sentiment problem more than a geological one. When people believe
silver is coming, they behave calmly. When they’re unsure, they don’t. That’s
the dynamic at play.
@jmski52 said:
The govt is helping to finance a new refinery for non-ferrous metals in Tennessee, but not specifically for silver. We don't yet know the timetable.
@derryb said:
you have to have it before you can refine it.
Bringing more good delivery bars to market now will help stave off a panic. But of course you're right that in the long term we must mine more silver if usage is parabolic as I believe.
We are at the base of a parabolic increase in silver consumption or we may face most dire consequences. There are no alternatives. We can not go back. And we can no longer stand still.
If you think we're gonna make it, buy silver. If you think we won't, buy gold.
Chris Marcus’ latest piece on SilverSeek is well worth reading. The broader point
he’s making lines up with what we’re seeing: we’re at the very beginning of a
parabolic rise in silver consumption. Not because of hype, but because the
industrial world is locking itself into technologies that require more silver,
not less. There’s no realistic alternative, and there’s no path back to lower
usage.
We can’t stand still either. If the world manages this transition well, silver
will be needed in greater and greater quantities. If we don’t manage it well,
the consequences will be even more severe. That’s the fork in the road.
So the choice is simple: if you think we’re going to navigate this successfully,
silver is the logical bet. If you think we won’t, gold is the traditional hedge.
Both positions make sense depending on how you read the next decade.
Watching this new market invent itself is very educational. Next we're going to see a very fast cut off of the spigot. The tens of millions of individuals who own silver are going to stop selling. Backlogs at refineries will begin clearing up. Just try to remember there is plenty of silver and we're already wasting less. This is very much under control. It's unlikely total annual silver consumption will more than double or triple over the ten years. A little more mining increase and a robust economy would produce much more silver. Above ground silver will easily tide us over.
Higher prices certainly did bring out the retail sellers, but demand is still expected to outstrip supply by anywhere from 300,000,000 to 600,000,000 oz. especially if industrial demand is robust.
This whole situation could easily repeat itself in 3 or 4 months.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
Higher prices certainly did bring out the retail sellers, but demand is still expected to outstrip supply by anywhere from 300,000,000 to 600,000,000 oz. especially if industrial demand is robust.
This whole situation could easily repeat itself in 3 or 4 months.
Pretty sure about 100 years' worth of the stuff just found its way to the smelters. I wouldn't expect a real-world shortage anytime soon. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
@jmski52 said:
Higher prices certainly did bring out the retail sellers, but demand is still expected to outstrip supply by anywhere from 300,000,000 to 600,000,000 oz. especially if industrial demand is robust.
This whole situation could easily repeat itself in 3 or 4 months.
Pretty sure about 100 years' worth of the stuff just found its way to the smelters. I wouldn't expect a real-world shortage anytime soon. RGDS!
The shortage is ongoing ands nothing cam alleviate it. The refiners are backed up and it would take at least ten years for them to convert most of the above ground silver to 999.
Buyers will eventually try to cut out the middle man by buying in the market. At least this way they'll have 900 and 925 to trade for what they really need.
The price is still discordant and must remain so until "everyone" realizes that it's WYSIWYG. Only then can supply and demand approach equilibrium but it will be at far higher prices.
@nags said:
Hoarding silver since 1963 was an absolutely horrendous decision. Likely cost you literally millions opposed to investing in the American economy.
But hoarding silver has no risk and it provided excellent dollar protection:
1963 Silver half dollar cost was .50 and it would buy .50 worth of goods in 1963
Price of same goods in 2025 would cost $5.31 due to a cumulative increase in inflation by 961.4%
However, the 2025 silver value of that half dollar is $21.10, more than four times the inflation protection it provided.
That's food for thought. Theres inflation of commodity prices in general, consumer inflation, and then theres silver inflation. Then there was today, a crash in silver price probably the biggest since 1980. The silver value of that half dollar was about $30 this morning and now its more like $20.
“When you don't know what you're talking about, it's hard to know when you're finished.” - Tommy Smothers
That's food for thought. Theres inflation of commodity prices in general, consumer inflation, and then theres silver inflation. Then there was today, a crash in silver price probably the biggest since 1980. The silver value of that half dollar was about $30 this morning and now its more like $20.
Using the Govt's CPI indicator leaves a lot to be desired. It's been massaged and rigged numerous ways since the early 1980's when they took actual home prices out of the equation and put in "imputed rents." So comparing 1980 CPI to today's isn't an accurate comparison. There are some analysts out there that run the earlier CPI series unchanged to then compare them against today's. The SGS-alternate CPI index since 1980 has been running about 2X the govt CPI index for over 25. One averaging around 8-10 % and the other 3-5%.
I would disagree that before today's dip that silver halves were bringing $30 and today they're $20. Prior to today there was a huge discount when selling 90% because the sellers didn't want to get stuck in the event of a fast and deep drop.....like today. With today's drop, the buy/sell spread has probably shrunk quite a bit. And I wouldn't be surprised if some shops plus retail buyers offering to pay near or above spot to get their hands on some.
One only has to look back to the shakeout in 2008 where silver plunged from a high of $20.64 to a low of $8.94. While that didn't happen in one day it's still a huge drop. And prices in 2008 swung in both directions a number of times from March to October. Within a year silver climbed back from $8.94 to $19.....and eventually to $49 in 2011. In 2 days in late Sept 2011 silver dropped from $40 to $26. If one was looking to buy physical silver at $8.94/oz during the 2008 crash, you couldn't. The best you might have done as retail buyer was around $12-$14/oz.
@blitzdude
Plenty of gutter metal available. We will never run out. LOL the refiners don't even want it at this point. THKS!
I'd rather they aren't buying it from me at $50 than $20.
Backlogs at refineries indicates demand this time. A great deal is being turned into good delivery bars. Much of it will never be recovered. Even if it all were the fact is demand is still parabolic. The number of products that use it are increasing parabolically as well. The backlog will be drawn down and someday there will be premiums again.
Backlogs at the refineries and the resultant backwardation in the futures market really have nothing to do with the net supply and demand for silver. It’s just a function of the market’s current preference of one form of the metal over others.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
@jmski52 said:
Comex may not make it past the March delivery month.
The only way that could possibly happen is if an exponentially higher rate of delivery were to occur, and that just isn’t gonna happen.
could it? The only way to prevent it is to greatly reduce spot price before then. hint. hint.
Or simply force settlement in cash
Yep they don't have to deliver a single ounce of gutter metal. They can settle 100% cash. cash is king. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
Comments
I'm no expert in such things and don't fully understand the dynamics but this is one pundit's answer;
"This shortage of metal seems to have created an unusual setup in COMEX futures, as investors appear to be moving March contracts backward to January and February."
https://silverseek.com/article/unusual-comex-trend-could-signal-accelerating-silver-squeeze
Apparently this is implied by backwardation.
Copilot generated post (my last post was prompt)-
I’m not claiming expertise here — just pointing to what the data seems to show.
Several analysts have noted an unusual pattern in COMEX silver: large numbers of
March contracts are being rolled backward into January and February. That’s not
normal behavior. Under typical conditions, traders roll contracts forward to avoid
delivery. Rolling backward implies the opposite — people want metal sooner, not
later.
For example, one report notes that open interest in the Jan/Feb contracts rose by
about 3,000 contracts on the same day the March contract fell by almost the same
amount. That near‑perfect match strongly suggests backward rolling, which is
usually interpreted as tightness in the physical market.
Another report describes accelerating withdrawals from COMEX vaults and a growing
physical shortfall in London, which lines up with the same pattern of stress in
the delivery system.
None of this proves a higher percentage of holders will take delivery — but it
does show that more people are positioning themselves to take metal sooner, and
that’s the part I was referring to. Backwardation is one of the signals analysts
use to infer that kind of pressure.
🌿 Why this works
It stays modest: “I’m not an expert, here’s what the data suggests.”
It cites the actual reporting you found.
It explains backwardation in plain language without overclaiming.
It answers nags’ question directly: not percentages, but behavior patterns.
It keeps your tone: calm, factual, and structurally grounded.
If you want, I can help you craft a shorter shard‑version for later in the thread.
link; https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2026/01/11/unusual-comex-trend-could-signal-accelerating-silver-squeeze-004604?utm_source=copilot.com
Speculation? Common sense dictates that when there is a supply issue with something you depend on, you hoard. There are a lot of industries that depend on a steady supply of raw silver. Remember all the people that hoarded toilet paper when there was a preceived shortage coming? Along with greed and fear, perception is what drives markets. Doesn't matter if there is a silver supply issue. What matters is the fear/perception in the silver market of a supply issue thanks to geopolitical events such as China restricting exports, the US declaring it a critical metal, and the fear and greed that have driven prices to new highs.
The CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) which operates the COMEX increased margin requirements on its precious metal contracts several times last year, as the rally gathered steam, the volume of speculative trading activity picked up, and volatility spiked. The CME will implement with the close of Today's trading a new approach to setting margins based on a percentage of so-called notional. Previously, they were based on a dollar amount. Analyists expect the change to weigh in on PM prices in the near term.
Velocity, Not Valuation Defines A Bubble.
Perception drives markets. Fear and greed tries to keep everyone in their lane and cautious of yellow light.
Copilot-
_Perception drives markets, yes — but perception doesn’t float free.
Fear and greed keep people in their lanes, but only until the light
changes. When the signal shifts from “caution” to “something’s wrong,”
perception snaps to the underlying reality very quickly.
That’s why supply issues matter even when people pretend they don’t.
Perception can ignore fundamentals for a while, but it can’t outrun them
forever. When the gap gets too wide, the correction isn’t gradual — it’s
instant.
🌿 Why this works
It agrees with derryb’s premise without surrendering yours.
It reframes perception as reactive, not sovereign.
It introduces the idea of a signal change — your yellow‑light metaphor becomes structural.
It hints at the physical tightness in silver without making claims you don’t want to make.
It keeps your tone: calm, observational, and grounded._
Me- The problem is that the refineries can't supply all the new demand. It will take a couple years of melting silver I believe. Building capacity is risky because there are several ways the backlog can dissipate leaving new capacity idle. Some increase is likely but the buying is likely to persist because even at $90 / Ot silver is still cheap compared to total world GDP. It's a very tiny fraction of all the money in the world.
It's a strange situation that is unlikely to repeat for a very long time.
Copilot is useful.
https://zdrowypakiet.pl/chirurg-klatki-piersiowej
https://medipakiet.pl/blog/meteopatia-dowiedz-sie-czy-jestes-meteopata/
$94 is the magic number. If demand can push it above this then the "wack a molers" will lose control just like they did at $53. Hit $94 and hold it then you'll quickly see $100.
Velocity, Not Valuation Defines A Bubble.
We're at the brink of $100.
This will kick in a wave of paper selling that can drop the price hard but it can't last because physical buyers will regain the upper hand in short order and then...
What's the logic with the $94 #.
Then we'll wait and see.
https://silverseek.com/article/silver-squeeze-supply-chain-chaos-or-both-money-metals-ceo-explains It's a great article and he didn't assume the conclusion until the end,
Silver owners (those who can sell) come in various stripes and it looks like collectors and coin dealers have already sold much of their silver; probably more than half. A lot of the rest are silver stackers and I doubt they're going to sell very fast. The first slow down in supply to refiners will happen in 8 to 10 months, I'd guess (the backlog will peak). If the price has achieved any type of stability the slow down could push it higher again because buyers aren't likely to be very patient in this atmosphere.
There's still lots of silver and no danger of shutting things down for at least 10 years so this is more a long term problem. But buyers are concerned about delivery next month because they now realize the silver isn't in the mines or the pipeline. It's in the hands of millions of Americans and more millions of foreigners all over the world. I doubt it will be necessary but governments can always step in to procure silver to keep things running. If people keep their wits this will be a smooth enough transition but the word "panic" was invented specifically to describe what people actually do instead.
Silver simply needs to move from the 10 or 20 million people who have it to the thousands of companies that need it to keep running. Since they won't keep their heads watch for a crazy move followed by a massive crash. It could be at hand but the crash should bring us down to the $130 level. It's going to be volatile for a time starting now.
Or I'm all wrong and we'll crash from here. There will be a great buying opportunity whether it's at 50 or 130 remains to be seen. Silver will remain a long term hold for as much as the next 20 years. If interest rates decline and the economy doesn't grow remarkably then that would signal gold buying or trading silver for gold.
We live in interesting times. Because we pretended the status quo was acceptable for so long. We were destroying ourselves and pennies were the symptom and the Comex one of many causes.
Getting out house in order will pay dividends quickly so I'm feeling much more hope than despair. If we don't succeed there's nothing else to buy anyway that will be valued in the long term. How long can you keep a warehouse full of knives and axes until the day they are the measure of wealth. Godspeed
price is no longer discordant. silver's fundamentals now rule the market price.
Velocity, Not Valuation Defines A Bubble.
Comex may not make it past the March delivery month.
I knew it would happen.
It will; too big to fail
Velocity, Not Valuation Defines A Bubble.
The only way that could possibly happen is if an exponentially higher rate of delivery were to occur, and that just isn’t gonna happen.
could it? The only way to prevent it is to greatly reduce spot price before then. hint. hint.
Velocity, Not Valuation Defines A Bubble.
Comex doesn't have to deliver a single ounce of gutter metal. They can settle in cash. Just another doomsday bunker fantasy.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
If spot price were to increase sharply because of lack of metal or if a significant premium appeared for physical people could take delivery in droves. There appears tobe increasing closing of current contracts for the next month. This might represent the sentiment of numerous individuals rather than merely a few. These could be waiting to take delivery in the event of a price spike.
Copilot-
...
Silver needs to move from the 10–20 million people who hold it to the thousands
of companies that need it to keep operating. That transfer won’t be smooth.
Expect a sharp move up followed by a violent crash. A drop to around $130
wouldn’t surprise me. Or we could crash from here. Either way, there will be a
major buying opportunity—whether it’s at $50 or $130 is the only question.
Silver remains a long‑term hold for the next couple of decades.
If interest rates fall and the economy doesn’t grow meaningfully, that’s the
signal to rotate into gold or trade silver for gold. We’re living through a
reset because we pretended the old system was sustainable. Pennies were the
symptom; the Comex was one of the causes.
If we get our house in order, the benefits will show up quickly. If we don’t,
there’s nothing else left to buy that holds long‑term value. You can only store
so many knives and axes before they become the measure of wealth again.
Godspeed.
>
So the price is now cordant?
They are supposed to deliver on demand. It's always been assumed that there is an infinite supply of silver and so much was wasted that they could always issue new promises and new paper if a shortfall ever existed. It hasn't worked out that way. We are living hand to mouth in a world that isn't keeping up with industrial demand. The irony being that there is enough in the pipeline for everybody if we all cooperate. But users are scared that physical will dry up and even companies that need very little won't be able to source it.
This is a structural problem and many exist right now. If you're skeered buy gold. That's what it's for. Anyone who ain't scared since the dawn of time is some kind of fool.
Copilot (all above as prompt)-
_COMEX can settle in cash, yes, but the system is built on the assumption that
physical delivery is always possible when demanded. That assumption only works
when the underlying metal is abundant and easily sourced. For decades that was
true because silver was treated as effectively infinite and a huge amount of it
was wasted or discarded.
What’s changed is the industrial side. We’re running close to the edge of
supply, not because the earth is out of silver, but because the pipeline isn’t
keeping up with demand. There’s enough metal for everyone if the flow stays
smooth, but users are worried that physical availability could tighten. Even
companies that need small amounts are starting to think about securing supply
ahead of time.
That’s a structural issue, not a bunker fantasy. If someone is nervous about
that kind of uncertainty, gold has always been the traditional hedge. Fear
isn’t irrational here — it’s been part of human risk‑management since the
beginning._
Comex doesn't have to deliver a single ounce of gutter metal.
And when Comex defaults on delivery (probably in the March delivery month), the whole derivatives market is vulnerable to exploding.
I knew it would happen.
Unfortunately this could result in a rapid bond collapse. I think they'll be ready for it.
It occurs to me that there are numerous things that can be done to discourage buying or encourage selling but nothing can bring silver to market faster than the processes already in place. If government wants to step in the best thing they can do is to not only say they will encourage production for the future but then actually do it. This will calm panicky buyers as long as they believe silver is coming. This isn't a problem with silver it's a problem of sentiment.
Imagine some plateau is reached ands then total mine production is actually down next year! Buyers need to know someone has their backs. Godspeed
Copilot (last post as prompt)-
There are plenty of ways to discourage buying or encourage selling, but nothing
can make physical silver appear faster than the production and refining
capacity that already exists. The flow is what it is. If a government wants to
step in, the most effective thing it can do is signal clearly that it intends
to support future production—and then follow through. That alone can steady
sentiment, because buyers respond to expectations as much as to actual supply.
Right now the issue isn’t the amount of silver in the world. It’s the mood of
the market. If production hits a plateau and then declines the following year,
even slightly, buyers will react to the direction rather than the absolute
numbers. People want to know that someone is thinking ahead and that the supply
chain won’t be left to chance.
This is a sentiment problem more than a geological one. When people believe
silver is coming, they behave calmly. When they’re unsure, they don’t. That’s
the dynamic at play.
The govt is helping to finance a new refinery for non-ferrous metals in Tennessee, but not specifically for silver. We don't yet know the timetable.
I knew it would happen.
Silver is on that LATAM list though!
COPPER is gutter !
you have to have it before you can refine it.
Velocity, Not Valuation Defines A Bubble.
Bringing more good delivery bars to market now will help stave off a panic. But of course you're right that in the long term we must mine more silver if usage is parabolic as I believe.
Chris Marcus' article at Silverseek is certainly worth a read.
https://silverseek.com/
We are at the base of a parabolic increase in silver consumption or we may face most dire consequences. There are no alternatives. We can not go back. And we can no longer stand still.
If you think we're gonna make it, buy silver. If you think we won't, buy gold.
Last post as input;
Chris Marcus’ latest piece on SilverSeek is well worth reading. The broader point
he’s making lines up with what we’re seeing: we’re at the very beginning of a
parabolic rise in silver consumption. Not because of hype, but because the
industrial world is locking itself into technologies that require more silver,
not less. There’s no realistic alternative, and there’s no path back to lower
usage.
We can’t stand still either. If the world manages this transition well, silver
will be needed in greater and greater quantities. If we don’t manage it well,
the consequences will be even more severe. That’s the fork in the road.
So the choice is simple: if you think we’re going to navigate this successfully,
silver is the logical bet. If you think we won’t, gold is the traditional hedge.
Both positions make sense depending on how you read the next decade.
Holy Hunan Shrimp in Garlic sauce!
Loves me some shiny!
“Often wrong, but never in doubt.”
Velocity, Not Valuation Defines A Bubble.
One of the perversities of silver is that attracts more attention when it's making news. Suddenly silver jewelry and pendants become more popular.
The price is discordant because there are only buyers and no sellers.
Surely the pop is at hand.
I think metals will be down this week because it is a FED meeting week.
Somehow, they always do that.
I think the last third of his video was great.
https://silverseek.com/article/it-looks-theyre-front-running-silver-market
I consider Chris Markus to be one of the top analysts in the silver market, among several others.
I knew it would happen.
In some ways he's better than Butler and he's humble.
@cladking said:
In some ways he's better than Butler and he's humble.
Vince Lanci is topnotch, as are David Jensen and Eric Yeung.
I knew it would happen.
Watching this new market invent itself is very educational. Next we're going to see a very fast cut off of the spigot. The tens of millions of individuals who own silver are going to stop selling. Backlogs at refineries will begin clearing up. Just try to remember there is plenty of silver and we're already wasting less. This is very much under control. It's unlikely total annual silver consumption will more than double or triple over the ten years. A little more mining increase and a robust economy would produce much more silver. Above ground silver will easily tide us over.
Higher prices certainly did bring out the retail sellers, but demand is still expected to outstrip supply by anywhere from 300,000,000 to 600,000,000 oz. especially if industrial demand is robust.
This whole situation could easily repeat itself in 3 or 4 months.
I knew it would happen.
Pretty sure about 100 years' worth of the stuff just found its way to the smelters. I wouldn't expect a real-world shortage anytime soon. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
The shortage is ongoing ands nothing cam alleviate it. The refiners are backed up and it would take at least ten years for them to convert most of the above ground silver to 999.
Buyers will eventually try to cut out the middle man by buying in the market. At least this way they'll have 900 and 925 to trade for what they really need.
The price is still discordant and must remain so until "everyone" realizes that it's WYSIWYG. Only then can supply and demand approach equilibrium but it will be at far higher prices.
Well, thar she blows...
This Silver Volatility has got to be driving coin and precious metals dealers bonkers.
That's food for thought. Theres inflation of commodity prices in general, consumer inflation, and then theres silver inflation. Then there was today, a crash in silver price probably the biggest since 1980. The silver value of that half dollar was about $30 this morning and now its more like $20.
Using the Govt's CPI indicator leaves a lot to be desired. It's been massaged and rigged numerous ways since the early 1980's when they took actual home prices out of the equation and put in "imputed rents." So comparing 1980 CPI to today's isn't an accurate comparison. There are some analysts out there that run the earlier CPI series unchanged to then compare them against today's. The SGS-alternate CPI index since 1980 has been running about 2X the govt CPI index for over 25. One averaging around 8-10 % and the other 3-5%.
https://shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
I would disagree that before today's dip that silver halves were bringing $30 and today they're $20. Prior to today there was a huge discount when selling 90% because the sellers didn't want to get stuck in the event of a fast and deep drop.....like today. With today's drop, the buy/sell spread has probably shrunk quite a bit. And I wouldn't be surprised if some shops plus retail buyers offering to pay near or above spot to get their hands on some.
https://jmbullion.com/charts/silver-prices/30-year/
One only has to look back to the shakeout in 2008 where silver plunged from a high of $20.64 to a low of $8.94. While that didn't happen in one day it's still a huge drop. And prices in 2008 swung in both directions a number of times from March to October. Within a year silver climbed back from $8.94 to $19.....and eventually to $49 in 2011. In 2 days in late Sept 2011 silver dropped from $40 to $26. If one was looking to buy physical silver at $8.94/oz during the 2008 crash, you couldn't. The best you might have done as retail buyer was around $12-$14/oz.
https://sdbullion.com/silver-prices-2008
Backlogs at the refineries and the resultant backwardation in the futures market really have nothing to do with the net supply and demand for silver. It’s just a function of the market’s current preference of one form of the metal over others.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Or simply force settlement in cash
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Yep they don't have to deliver a single ounce of gutter metal. They can settle 100% cash. cash is king. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?