This should also be interesting in how melting affects world silver coins too! In many countries few of their silver coins survive except in the US. If these are in poor condition they're more likely to be melted leaving some issues very scarce in any grade such as the Dominican Republic 1897 issues.
Now even many better coins are starting to be sold to refineries because someone wants to sell despite steep discounts to melt.
With so very many countries essentially dependent on us to preserve their coins we should try to make a good job of that as well.
Yes, i know you ASSUME that silver prices continue to rise.
It would be more true to say I assume I know all relevant facts related to future supply and demand. All things occur in unseen ways but cycles play out as well.
Only time can tell.
We can be 99% sure that's a bad assumption. No one knows all the relevant facts and it is sheer hubris to think otherwise.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Yes, i know you ASSUME that silver prices continue to rise.
It would be more true to say I assume I know all relevant facts related to future supply and demand. All things occur in unseen ways but cycles play out as well.
Only time can tell.
We can be 99% sure that's a bad assumption. No one knows all the relevant facts and it is sheer hubris to think otherwise.
Relevant facts. I haven't heard much good news for mining over the last several years and there are no other sources. Yes, if buying would fall out of favor the price would collapse in the current glut but if the glut hasn't caused panic selling by now why would it start as more buyers emerge? We know where the silver is, we know where it is going, and we know the flow will only increase. It took years to set this up through waste and greed.
Yes, i know you ASSUME that silver prices continue to rise.
It would be more true to say I assume I know all relevant facts related to future supply and demand. All things occur in unseen ways but cycles play out as well.
Only time can tell.
We can be 99% sure that's a bad assumption. No one knows all the relevant facts and it is sheer hubris to think otherwise.
Relevant facts. I haven't heard much good news for mining over the last several years and there are no other sources. Yes, if buying would fall out of favor the price would collapse in the current glut but if the glut hasn't caused panic selling by now why would it start as more buyers emerge? We know where the silver is, we know where it is going, and we know the flow will only increase. It took years to set this up through waste and greed.
You ASSUME much of that. No need to rehash the prior discussions but there are many other voices with quite different predictions.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
You ASSUME much of that. No need to rehash the prior discussions but there are many other voices with quite different predictions.
These simply are facts, not assumptions.
"We know where the silver is, we know where it is going, and we know the flow will only increase. It took years to set this up through waste and greed."
Obviously these facts can be misinterpreted or projected incorrectly but these processes and cycles are real. Silver is consumed and we have been living hand to mouth. It is quite apparent this is ending.
You ASSUME much of that. No need to rehash the prior discussions but there are many other voices with quite different predictions.
These simply are facts, not assumptions.
"We know where the silver is, we know where it is going, and we know the flow will only increase. It took years to set this up through waste and greed."
Obviously these facts can be misinterpreted or projected incorrectly but these processes and cycles are real. Silver is consumed and we have been living hand to mouth. It is quite apparent this is ending.
Sigh... read the other thread for the flaw in your "facts". Suffice it to say that you are extrapolating current conditions into the future.
Several banks have predicted slowing demand and a price reversion. So, you KNOW and they KNOW, but one of you is wrong.
Demand is far more elastic and price dependent than you seem to think...er...know?
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I have never had coins melted and probably never will, but if someone melts coins how high of a grade is the silver when it is done, and if it is a chunk or bar or something on those lines how would you as a buyer know it is solid silver?
It’s “shakin’ the bush” and bringing more to market. Time, and price will tell how long. I knew of a guy who left his son $22,000.00 face value of .900 US. Coinage in a safe deposit box. The son, my age , passed away a year or so ago. It likely won’t make it to market any time soon since his son inherited it and will just let it sit there until he dies, probably. Not sure what the prices will continue to do, but I suspect time will tarnish it. I recall telling him at one time that its value was nearing $400,000. What’s $22000.00 face value of 90% silver worth today (even discounted) ?
Just sayin’
Practice makes perfect & nobody is perfect. So, practice being nobody and be perfect !
@Franklin_Fan said:
I have never had coins melted and probably never will, but if someone melts coins how high of a grade is the silver when it is done, and if it is a chunk or bar or something on those lines how would you as a buyer know it is solid silver?
They are refined to 0.999. You would know because it would be a silver eagle or a Silver Towne bar or whatever you've been buying all along.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Had a guy come in yesterday with graded eagles, simply busted them out and sold raw, the buyers dont want slabbed ase's, they wont sell . There were a hand full of 70's, I put a group on ebay, but they struggling, with fee's and such probably should have cracked them also.
@jdimmick said:
Had a guy come in yesterday with graded eagles, simply busted them out and sold raw, the buyers dont want slabbed ase's, they wont sell . There were a hand full of 70's, I put a group on ebay, but they struggling, with fee's and such probably should have cracked them also.
Yeah. For most dates, there's no premium left. The local shops haven't taken to busting them out, but they are selling them at the same price as raw ASEs so they might as well for ease of storage.
It is definitely an interesting new game. At these prices (or higher), a lot of coins are going to be just "bullion" including full Good or even VG common date Barbers, Morgans into the low UNCs, etc. If it weren't for the refinery backlog, a lot of that would have been melted already to fill the London shortage.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@Franklin_Fan said:
I have never had coins melted and probably never will, but if someone melts coins how high of a grade is the silver when it is done, and if it is a chunk or bar or something on those lines how would you as a buyer know it is solid silver?
Any silver coin sold today has a high probability of being melted unless it's worth a premium. When dealers ship off silver for melt they just want to get everything that is "cluttering" the shop.
Collectors need to cull their own collections and might as well see if there's anything good at the shop they can get close to melt.
The LCS that I visit often does not send any of the incoming 90% to refiners. It is all sold within a day or two to collectors. There is some really nice stuff coming across the counter. Great time to be in the hobby.
You ASSUME much of that. No need to rehash the prior discussions but there are many other voices with quite different predictions.
These simply are facts, not assumptions.
"We know where the silver is, we know where it is going, and we know the flow will only increase. It took years to set this up through waste and greed."
Obviously these facts can be misinterpreted or projected incorrectly but these processes and cycles are real. Silver is consumed and we have been living hand to mouth. It is quite apparent this is ending.
Sigh... read the other thread for the flaw in your "facts". Suffice it to say that you are extrapolating current conditions into the future.
Several banks have predicted slowing demand and a price reversion. So, you KNOW and they KNOW, but one of you is wrong.
Demand is far more elastic and price dependent than you seem to think...er...know?
I've been wrong many times. I'm virtually a pro.
Maybe it's that time of day that makes the stopped clock correct (or close enough for government work).
My belief really boils down to a simple observation: silver demand is increasing parabolically so everyone is trying to acquire it.
Consider that an ounce of silver could make 3600 pictures using old technology. These pictures used to cost about $4 in modern dollars. So even if the price had been $1000 an ounce in 1965 it would have little impact on film sales!!! What is that about a 50% increase.
Cell phones can take a million pictures. Even at a thousand dollars per ounce the cost of a phone would have no meaningful increase in cost.
I see nothing that can constrain the price, not supply and not demand, so it follows our coins are going to get melted and our job is to safeguard our heritage. We need to preserve the rarity not wait for it to be worth more as melt.
Must be nice to have 90% buyers in shop, I cant give it away, lately some definite renewed intrest again in .999, but not 90% in fact the few who ask are looking for 40x face, i said we pay more than that otc.
Guy came by thursday and I hadnt changed the price on cull $ yet from 47, he said I was too high. Just sold some to a distributor yesterday at 59.00
@jdimmick said:
Must be nice to have 90% buyers in shop, I cant give it away, lately some definite renewed intrest again in .999, but not 90% in fact the few who ask are looking for 40x face, i said we pay more than that otc.
The day that people stop selling 90% for melt will probably be the day after the price soars. 90% controls the market for physical but the spot price is still based on paper and the backup at the refineries is baked into the paper price. This backup CAN'T last because the silver market is FAR larger than the amount of 90%. In a few years it will all be gone and that's that.
You ASSUME much of that. No need to rehash the prior discussions but there are many other voices with quite different predictions.
These simply are facts, not assumptions.
"We know where the silver is, we know where it is going, and we know the flow will only increase. It took years to set this up through waste and greed."
Obviously these facts can be misinterpreted or projected incorrectly but these processes and cycles are real. Silver is consumed and we have been living hand to mouth. It is quite apparent this is ending.
Sigh... read the other thread for the flaw in your "facts". Suffice it to say that you are extrapolating current conditions into the future.
Several banks have predicted slowing demand and a price reversion. So, you KNOW and they KNOW, but one of you is wrong.
Demand is far more elastic and price dependent than you seem to think...er...know?
I've been wrong many times. I'm virtually a pro.
Maybe it's that time of day that makes the stopped clock correct (or close enough for government work).
My belief really boils down to a simple observation: silver demand is increasing parabolically so everyone is trying to acquire it.
Consider that an ounce of silver could make 3600 pictures using old technology. These pictures used to cost about $4 in modern dollars. So even if the price had been $1000 an ounce in 1965 it would have little impact on film sales!!! What is that about a 50% increase.
Cell phones can take a million pictures. Even at a thousand dollars per ounce the cost of a phone would have no meaningful increase in cost.
I see nothing that can constrain the price, not supply and not demand, so it follows our coins are going to get melted and our job is to safeguard our heritage. We need to preserve the rarity not wait for it to be worth more as melt.
That is NOT a parabolic increase. Not when it DROPPED in 2025 and is predicted (Silver Institute) to drop in 2026. the graph you posted makes the opposite point to the one you are trying to make. Sigh...
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
90% controls the market for physical but the spot price is still based on paper and the backup at the refineries is baked into the paper price.
But the backup at the refineries could evaporate very quickly. Any change of sentiment among holders of silver (especially older Americans) would quickly reduce selling.
I consider these simple facts as supported by observation. So long as we older Americans sell into the demand the paper markets are promoted and reality distorted. The price of 90%; the discount to melt reflects its abundance and as you see this number begin to approach par I think it will be apparent that the price of silver really is discordant.
That is NOT a parabolic increase. Not when it DROPPED in 2025 and is predicted (Silver Institute) to drop in 2026. the graph you posted makes the opposite point to the one you are trying to make. Sigh...
I wasn't explicit enough. I believe we are at the bottom of a parabolic increase in demand. This is supported by the growing list of products and processes that require increasing amount of silver as existing uses expand. We are going to be building a lot of infrastructure that demands ever more silver.
We don't see this increase from our perspective. But Russia saw it. It looks like everyone's starting to see it except for older American sellers of physical silver.
If physical silver becomes heir apparent why sell at all? It's good as gold when everyone wants physical.
This one's easy. Buy and hold the good ones with profits from the junk.
This is all I'm saying, really.
And if I were young I'd jump feet first into debased 20th century world silver coins in pristine condition. Failing finding these cheap I'd look for nice XF/ AU's. I'd also be looking for quantities of nice attractive VG and F coins that are being melted in large percentages of small mintages like the '40-D quarter. I'd be setting aside nice chBU '65- '70 half dollars.
There are lots of world silver coins with unique distribution and attrition that are already far scarcer than people think because they weren't saved despite small mintages or they have been destroyed enmass like the Spanish 100P. Some of the NZ 500 fine is considered common so these beautiful designs will be destroyed all the way up to XF but some dates that means they'll almost all be destroyed.
There's a lot of world silver that isn't seen much but it will go straight to the melting pot anyway. Most world silver already has a far higher attrition rate than US silver. Opportunities abound.
Collecting silver coins will get a boost the next few years but far far more coins will be melted than collected and safeguarded.
Take something like a 1941 NZ shilling. There's no demand and a lot of the survivors are in the US. With $7.50 worth of silver in it you can get nice F's for near melt but there are only hundreds of coins in better condition because of wear and attrition. It will cost almost nothing if you have a junky common date GB shilling to trade for it. Most of my trades of this sort only cost a 5 or 10% premium. Then if the crackpots on the net (like cladking) are wrong the small premium acts as buffer against losing the silver because you'll be able to trade it for two or three junky GB shillings. ie- you come out ahead even when you're wrong. It's a great life if you don't weaken.
Yes, i know you ASSUME that silver prices continue to rise.
It would be more true to say I assume I know all relevant facts related to future supply and demand. All things occur in unseen ways but cycles play out as well.
Only time can tell.
We can be 99% sure that's a bad assumption. No one knows all the relevant facts and it is sheer hubris to think otherwise.
I wasn't explicit enough. I believe we are at the bottom of a parabolic increase in demand. This is supported by the growing list of products and processes that require increasing amount of silver as existing uses expand. We are going to be building a lot of infrastructure that demands ever more silver.
I think this all makes sense, but doesn't happen in a vacuum. All these industries and processes that have relied on silver at a much lower price point will naturally do everything possible to adjust and transition away from silver at the much higher prices. It definitely wont be a fast process, but it will happen.
I wasn't explicit enough. I believe we are at the bottom of a parabolic increase in demand. This is supported by the growing list of products and processes that require increasing amount of silver as existing uses expand. We are going to be building a lot of infrastructure that demands ever more silver.
I think this all makes sense, but doesn't happen in a vacuum. All these industries and processes that have relied on silver at a much lower price point will naturally do everything possible to adjust and transition away from silver at the much higher prices. It definitely wont be a fast process, but it will happen.
These prices aren't high enough yet to encourage much conservation. Most products made with silver (unless large) use only tiny amounts. This is where the drag is. And it keeps increasing because of silver's unique characteristics. Nobody noticed that industry in the name of efficiency, expediency, and financial considerations had trimmed supply lines to the point that they were living hand to mouth in a world of diminishing amounts of the metal.
Of course demand will be stressed by increasing prices but that's what they're for; suppress demand and increase supply.
The issue here is that it is demand spiraling out of control and higher prices can increase demand and this means many "common" coins will be melted. How will we protect the good ones and where are they?
How about tokens and medals? These are getting destroyed too, you know. All those beautiful items made by Franklin Mint (et al) that have been shunned because of their "high" mintages of 10,000 are being destroyed and it will get worse.
What numismatics that exists today in large numbers will suffer catastrophic population loss if silver skyrockets?
@Cougar1978 said:
Well I better take a look - may have to increase prices. When do u think silver will hit $100 an oz?
At this rate we might hit it by Friday but I’d like to see it base and sit at $70-$75 or so for a while. Then in a month or so start moving again. That is a healthy way for any investment to go.
JMHO
Mike
I wasn't explicit enough. I believe we are at the bottom of a parabolic increase in demand. This is supported by the growing list of products and processes that require increasing amount of silver as existing uses expand. We are going to be building a lot of infrastructure that demands ever more silver.
I think this all makes sense, but doesn't happen in a vacuum. All these industries and processes that have relied on silver at a much lower price point will naturally do everything possible to adjust and transition away from silver at the much higher prices. It definitely wont be a fast process, but it will happen.
These prices aren't high enough yet to encourage much conservation. Most products made with silver (unless large) use only tiny amounts. This is where the drag is. And it keeps increasing because of silver's unique characteristics. Nobody noticed that industry in the name of efficiency, expediency, and financial considerations had trimmed supply lines to the point that they were living hand to mouth in a world of diminishing amounts of the metal.
Of course demand will be stressed by increasing prices but that's what they're for; suppress demand and increase supply.
The issue here is that it is demand spiraling out of control and higher prices can increase demand and this means many "common" coins will be melted. How will we protect the good ones and where are they?
How about tokens and medals? These are getting destroyed too, you know. All those beautiful items made by Franklin Mint (et al) that have been shunned because of their "high" mintages of 10,000 are being destroyed and it will get worse.
What numismatics that exists today in large numbers will suffer catastrophic population loss if silver skyrockets?
Your first paragraph is completely inaccurate. Google "thrifting". The solar energy companies already cut usage (per panel) by 50% due to rising costs.
Your 3rd paragraph is also inaccurate as demand dropped last year and is expected to drop again in 2026.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I wasn't explicit enough. I believe we are at the bottom of a parabolic increase in demand. This is supported by the growing list of products and processes that require increasing amount of silver as existing uses expand. We are going to be building a lot of infrastructure that demands ever more silver.
I think this all makes sense, but doesn't happen in a vacuum. All these industries and processes that have relied on silver at a much lower price point will naturally do everything possible to adjust and transition away from silver at the much higher prices. It definitely wont be a fast process, but it will happen.
These prices aren't high enough yet to encourage much conservation. Most products made with silver (unless large) use only tiny amounts. This is where the drag is. And it keeps increasing because of silver's unique characteristics. Nobody noticed that industry in the name of efficiency, expediency, and financial considerations had trimmed supply lines to the point that they were living hand to mouth in a world of diminishing amounts of the metal.
Of course demand will be stressed by increasing prices but that's what they're for; suppress demand and increase supply.
The issue here is that it is demand spiraling out of control and higher prices can increase demand and this means many "common" coins will be melted. How will we protect the good ones and where are they?
How about tokens and medals? These are getting destroyed too, you know. All those beautiful items made by Franklin Mint (et al) that have been shunned because of their "high" mintages of 10,000 are being destroyed and it will get worse.
What numismatics that exists today in large numbers will suffer catastrophic population loss if silver skyrockets?
Your first paragraph is completely inaccurate. Google "thrifting". The solar energy companies already cut usage (per panel) by 50% due to rising costs.
Your 3rd paragraph is also inaccurate as demand dropped last year and is expected to drop again in 2026.
Solar panels fit in with objects that are large. If they cut consumption by half I'd wager that most of this reduction was achieved long before silver crossed crossed $50 per ounce. It's not like they can wake up and turn the spigot down because silver went higher.
Solar uses a lot of silver but most of this silver is recoverable. The less they use in panels today, the less there is to recover later on.
The problem with silver isn't confined to a single field the problem is every field requires more metal.
I wasn't explicit enough. I believe we are at the bottom of a parabolic increase in demand. This is supported by the growing list of products and processes that require increasing amount of silver as existing uses expand. We are going to be building a lot of infrastructure that demands ever more silver.
I think this all makes sense, but doesn't happen in a vacuum. All these industries and processes that have relied on silver at a much lower price point will naturally do everything possible to adjust and transition away from silver at the much higher prices. It definitely wont be a fast process, but it will happen.
These prices aren't high enough yet to encourage much conservation. Most products made with silver (unless large) use only tiny amounts. This is where the drag is. And it keeps increasing because of silver's unique characteristics. Nobody noticed that industry in the name of efficiency, expediency, and financial considerations had trimmed supply lines to the point that they were living hand to mouth in a world of diminishing amounts of the metal.
Of course demand will be stressed by increasing prices but that's what they're for; suppress demand and increase supply.
The issue here is that it is demand spiraling out of control and higher prices can increase demand and this means many "common" coins will be melted. How will we protect the good ones and where are they?
How about tokens and medals? These are getting destroyed too, you know. All those beautiful items made by Franklin Mint (et al) that have been shunned because of their "high" mintages of 10,000 are being destroyed and it will get worse.
What numismatics that exists today in large numbers will suffer catastrophic population loss if silver skyrockets?
Your first paragraph is completely inaccurate. Google "thrifting". The solar energy companies already cut usage (per panel) by 50% due to rising costs.
Your 3rd paragraph is also inaccurate as demand dropped last year and is expected to drop again in 2026.
Solar panels fit in with objects that are large. If they cut consumption by half I'd wager that most of this reduction was achieved long before silver crossed crossed $50 per ounce. It's not like they can wake up and turn the spigot down because silver went higher.
Solar uses a lot of silver but most of this silver is recoverable. The less they use in panels today, the less there is to recover later on.
The problem with silver isn't confined to a single field the problem is every field requires more metal.
None of that makes your 1st paragraph correct. In fact, your defense makes the original even more ludicrous. Your defense of the misinformation that the price isn't high enough to induce conservation is that the conservation started at LOWER prices.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
None of that makes your 1st paragraph correct. In fact, your defense makes the original even more ludicrous. Your defense of the misinformation that the price isn't high enough to induce conservation is that the conservation started at LOWER prices.
We may be on different subjects here.
I am merely saying "thrifting" in an ongoing concern in every business. The price of silver isn't high enough yet to discourage any buyers so many buyers have little concern. However as physical disappears they will become concerned about actually having a supply beyond the next couple weeks. No matter how little they use or how little is in products they must have silver to stay in business.
It doesn't make any difference how much they can save. They needed to see how much they could save all those years they were getting it cheap because of manipulation and rigging the system.
Just don't panic. There's plenty of silver for the foreseeable future, it's beyond this. Ten years from now maybe we'll be nearly out of silver if I am right. You can't eat silver so chasing it might be a bad idea. It will have a huge correction (because there's a lot of silver and that will be a good time to buy. I believe this correction could bring it down to $130 level.
A lot of silver is being melted and will be melted. Just try to send them the dregs. Try trading some dregs for good stuff once in a while. If you buy something don't buy junk. There are going to be many remarkable opportunities to acquire very rare numismatic items for melt.
With clad I always kindda figured if I didn't save it, no one would.
There will be a lot of silver in the same hands in ten years as there is now so don't count on anything common becoming rare. This didn't apply to clad and still you see very few collections!
Premium = Price - Silver Melt Value. Premium gets squeezed when collectors are buying for the wrong reasons. I also think scarcity is a major factor, but not for
My theoretical conclusion.
For truly rare coins, and silver value is so minor in terms of value.
For non rare silver coins, like 1964 Quarter dollars, values will be higher than normal. (As long as prices are still high).
For non-rare, non-silver coins, the premium will be squeezed (and prices flat) because demand is being driven by silver values.
A 1964 quarter's melt value is based on its 90% silver content, containing about 0.179 troy ounces of silver, fluctuating with the market, but often around $5 to $8 for circulated coins, though it can be much higher (over $10) with high silver prices or significantly more ($15+) for uncirculated or proof examples, as 1964 was the last year for silver circulating quarters.
“When you don't know what you're talking about, it's hard to know when you're finished.” - Tommy Smothers
A lot of silver is being melted and will be melted. Just try to send them the dregs. Try trading some dregs for good stuff once in a while. If you buy something don't buy junk. There are going to be many remarkable opportunities to acquire very rare numismatic items for melt.
Agreed!
“When you don't know what you're talking about, it's hard to know when you're finished.” - Tommy Smothers
A lot of silver is being melted and will be melted. Just try to send them the dregs. Try trading some dregs for good stuff once in a while. If you buy something don't buy junk. There are going to be many remarkable opportunities to acquire very rare numismatic items for melt.
Agreed!
Now that Silver has basically crashed down to the $50's/oz level, the premiums are back, sort of.
Go for the truly scarce coins that are getting sold at melt value, when the silver price comes back down. here the premium was getting squeezed.
But most of all don't buy something you hate. Think of your poor widow that has to get rid of it later!
“When you don't know what you're talking about, it's hard to know when you're finished.” - Tommy Smothers
Nonsense. It is apparent that so many 40% BU rolls were melted in 1980 to make the coins much harder to acquire. That melt lasted less than a year and this one is far more massive and long lasting already. As I've said many times what gets destroyed isn't random. What is available gets melted. That time there were lots of SMS , '68, and '69 mint sets that were destroyed by melting but this time there will be very few. A large majority of circulated and uncirculated 20th century coins will be melted if this goes on (as it probably will). People aren't going to be tossing BU rolls of '40-D quarters in the pot but anything under Fine is likely to be and this is most of the surviving mintage. We could significant changes in the relative availability of "common" coins.
The future collector base will never even come close to your prior claims and inferences.
Your estimation of what is "common" is irrelevant and even were you right many WILL become much less common. Most '16-S dimes are in abysmal condition so will be destroyed while the '16-D will not. This hardly means the S will become the key date but when most of the VG and lower issues are gone it will be a much tougher coin.
No, it's your collecting parameters which have no economic market relevance, just as the quality differences and prices you exaggerate do not either.
As for the future coin market, nothing resembling your claims is about to happen. This includes the collector base never approaching your prior claims and inferences. This also includes the demographics trend which actually matters - ethnicity as opposed to collector age - more likely than not leading to a decrease in the collecting of most if not almost all post-1933 US coinage.
"Common" exists only relative demand. "Rare" doesn't mean anything unless the demand is higher. If demand is higher than supply it doesn't matter if it's common or not.
Yeah, I already knew that, but thanks for telling me something I already knew. Again, the collector base you have claimed and implied will never happen. It's a complete fantasy.
Post-1933 US coinage is more common vs. in the vicinity of 99% of all coinage ever struck dated prior to 2000. The vast majority of all US coinage isn't hard to buy, to anyone who will look in the right place. I'd estimate less than 5%, probably quite a bit less, and it's most concentrated in 19th century gold. It's disproportionately only using one or more "qualifiers" where it's difficult.
Go look on the Rare Coin Wholesalers and Atlas Numismatics websites which will make what I'm telling you plainly evident, again.
Depending on how high silver goes up to 90% of US silver coins might be melted. This will have profound effects in the future and not one date or series will be more common in ten years. There will probably still be about 24 1804 dollars but most '16-S dimes will be gone. 1894-S dimes are safe but 1902-S will be decimated.
90% of which silver coins?
If 90% of post-1933 US silver coinage is melted, there will be no "shortage" because yes, this coinage is really common. Much of this coinage was hoarded in huge number, and the market prices make it evident the supply is much greater than the demand as a collectible, except to someone like you who confuses collecting with hoarding.
With Barber and earlier silver coinage, the preference in the quality where it will be melted isn't high enough where it will make much difference to the collectible premium. If it's melted where most of it disappears as you're implying, collectors will just buy something else.
People will still be collecting these coins and some dates considered common today will be elusive in ten years because what gets melted tends to be common and tends to be whatever the sellers have, like worn out '02-S and '16-S dimes.
What you call "elusive" is you looking in the wrong place or misrepresenting lack of a network effect as a scarcity. The world isn't about to "run out" of any of this coinage.
If collectors don't act by doing what collectors do (collecting) we will leave a mishmash of coins for the future which will be lots of rare coins and not so many of the coins hiding among the common ones.
Again, the world isn't about to "run out" of this coinage. The preference on lower quality coinage from the series you're implying isn't ever going to increase enough either to create the market scarcity you're implying.
You exaggerate everything about whatever coin or series you choose to discuss, but what I'm telling you isn't any different than what I told South African collectors for their coinage over a decade ago.
See, unlike the coins you repeatedly exaggerate, the supply of a far higher proportion of Union (1923-1960) is insufficient for the collector base in the quality they would actually like to buy. Guess what? The prices are mostly still low, low except to you.
Why?
Because collectors don't pay "high" prices for coins they don't actually like that much. The vast majority of Union silver (much of the bronze too) is visually unappealing.
Comments
This should also be interesting in how melting affects world silver coins too! In many countries few of their silver coins survive except in the US. If these are in poor condition they're more likely to be melted leaving some issues very scarce in any grade such as the Dominican Republic 1897 issues.
Now even many better coins are starting to be sold to refineries because someone wants to sell despite steep discounts to melt.
With so very many countries essentially dependent on us to preserve their coins we should try to make a good job of that as well.
We can be 99% sure that's a bad assumption. No one knows all the relevant facts and it is sheer hubris to think otherwise.
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High Ho!
To be melted you would first have to sell them at a 25% discount to the spot price.
He who knows he has enough is rich.
Relevant facts. I haven't heard much good news for mining over the last several years and there are no other sources. Yes, if buying would fall out of favor the price would collapse in the current glut but if the glut hasn't caused panic selling by now why would it start as more buyers emerge? We know where the silver is, we know where it is going, and we know the flow will only increase. It took years to set this up through waste and greed.
Only if you are selling them back to them.
Upstate is buying at $5.25 back of spot which is about 6%
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You ASSUME much of that. No need to rehash the prior discussions but there are many other voices with quite different predictions.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
These simply are facts, not assumptions.
"We know where the silver is, we know where it is going, and we know the flow will only increase. It took years to set this up through waste and greed."
Obviously these facts can be misinterpreted or projected incorrectly but these processes and cycles are real. Silver is consumed and we have been living hand to mouth. It is quite apparent this is ending.
Sigh... read the other thread for the flaw in your "facts". Suffice it to say that you are extrapolating current conditions into the future.
Several banks have predicted slowing demand and a price reversion. So, you KNOW and they KNOW, but one of you is wrong.
Demand is far more elastic and price dependent than you seem to think...er...know?
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Upward change in the coins BV will increase its market value. I can see damaged or heavily worn coins being melted.
I have never had coins melted and probably never will, but if someone melts coins how high of a grade is the silver when it is done, and if it is a chunk or bar or something on those lines how would you as a buyer know it is solid silver?
It’s “shakin’ the bush” and bringing more to market. Time, and price will tell how long. I knew of a guy who left his son $22,000.00 face value of .900 US. Coinage in a safe deposit box. The son, my age , passed away a year or so ago. It likely won’t make it to market any time soon since his son inherited it and will just let it sit there until he dies, probably. Not sure what the prices will continue to do, but I suspect time will tarnish it. I recall telling him at one time that its value was nearing $400,000. What’s $22000.00 face value of 90% silver worth today (even discounted) ?
Just sayin’
Practice makes perfect & nobody is perfect. So, practice being nobody and be perfect !
They are refined to 0.999. You would know because it would be a silver eagle or a Silver Towne bar or whatever you've been buying all along.
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Had a guy come in yesterday with graded eagles, simply busted them out and sold raw, the buyers dont want slabbed ase's, they wont sell . There were a hand full of 70's, I put a group on ebay, but they struggling, with fee's and such probably should have cracked them also.
Yeah. For most dates, there's no premium left. The local shops haven't taken to busting them out, but they are selling them at the same price as raw ASEs so they might as well for ease of storage.
It is definitely an interesting new game. At these prices (or higher), a lot of coins are going to be just "bullion" including full Good or even VG common date Barbers, Morgans into the low UNCs, etc. If it weren't for the refinery backlog, a lot of that would have been melted already to fill the London shortage.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Any silver coin sold today has a high probability of being melted unless it's worth a premium. When dealers ship off silver for melt they just want to get everything that is "cluttering" the shop.
Collectors need to cull their own collections and might as well see if there's anything good at the shop they can get close to melt.
The LCS that I visit often does not send any of the incoming 90% to refiners. It is all sold within a day or two to collectors. There is some really nice stuff coming across the counter. Great time to be in the hobby.
Completed All CAC approved Classic Head $5 set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/mysetregistry/album/344241
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
I've been wrong many times. I'm virtually a pro.
Maybe it's that time of day that makes the stopped clock correct (or close enough for government work).
My belief really boils down to a simple observation: silver demand is increasing parabolically so everyone is trying to acquire it.
Consider that an ounce of silver could make 3600 pictures using old technology. These pictures used to cost about $4 in modern dollars. So even if the price had been $1000 an ounce in 1965 it would have little impact on film sales!!! What is that about a 50% increase.
Cell phones can take a million pictures. Even at a thousand dollars per ounce the cost of a phone would have no meaningful increase in cost.
I see nothing that can constrain the price, not supply and not demand, so it follows our coins are going to get melted and our job is to safeguard our heritage. We need to preserve the rarity not wait for it to be worth more as melt.
Must be nice to have 90% buyers in shop, I cant give it away, lately some definite renewed intrest again in .999, but not 90% in fact the few who ask are looking for 40x face, i said we pay more than that otc.
Guy came by thursday and I hadnt changed the price on cull $ yet from 47, he said I was too high. Just sold some to a distributor yesterday at 59.00
The day that people stop selling 90% for melt will probably be the day after the price soars. 90% controls the market for physical but the spot price is still based on paper and the backup at the refineries is baked into the paper price. This backup CAN'T last because the silver market is FAR larger than the amount of 90%. In a few years it will all be gone and that's that.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
That is NOT a parabolic increase. Not when it DROPPED in 2025 and is predicted (Silver Institute) to drop in 2026. the graph you posted makes the opposite point to the one you are trying to make. Sigh...
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
But the backup at the refineries could evaporate very quickly. Any change of sentiment among holders of silver (especially older Americans) would quickly reduce selling.
I consider these simple facts as supported by observation. So long as we older Americans sell into the demand the paper markets are promoted and reality distorted. The price of 90%; the discount to melt reflects its abundance and as you see this number begin to approach par I think it will be apparent that the price of silver really is discordant.
I wasn't explicit enough. I believe we are at the bottom of a parabolic increase in demand. This is supported by the growing list of products and processes that require increasing amount of silver as existing uses expand. We are going to be building a lot of infrastructure that demands ever more silver.
We don't see this increase from our perspective. But Russia saw it. It looks like everyone's starting to see it except for older American sellers of physical silver.
If physical silver becomes heir apparent why sell at all? It's good as gold when everyone wants physical.
AI (Copilot)-
.
Physical tightness across exchanges
One report notes that silver inventories are so low that exchanges are having “a hard time keeping their silver stocked”.
That’s not a bearish signal — that’s a pressure cooker.
.
That’s not what a commodity looks like when demand is flattening.
That’s what it looks like when the curve is coiling.
.
That’s the setup for a parabolic move — not in price alone, but in structural demand.
This one's easy. Buy and hold the good ones with profits from the junk.
This is all I'm saying, really.
And if I were young I'd jump feet first into debased 20th century world silver coins in pristine condition. Failing finding these cheap I'd look for nice XF/ AU's. I'd also be looking for quantities of nice attractive VG and F coins that are being melted in large percentages of small mintages like the '40-D quarter. I'd be setting aside nice chBU '65- '70 half dollars.
There are lots of world silver coins with unique distribution and attrition that are already far scarcer than people think because they weren't saved despite small mintages or they have been destroyed enmass like the Spanish 100P. Some of the NZ 500 fine is considered common so these beautiful designs will be destroyed all the way up to XF but some dates that means they'll almost all be destroyed.
There's a lot of world silver that isn't seen much but it will go straight to the melting pot anyway. Most world silver already has a far higher attrition rate than US silver. Opportunities abound.
Collecting silver coins will get a boost the next few years but far far more coins will be melted than collected and safeguarded.
Take something like a 1941 NZ shilling. There's no demand and a lot of the survivors are in the US. With $7.50 worth of silver in it you can get nice F's for near melt but there are only hundreds of coins in better condition because of wear and attrition. It will cost almost nothing if you have a junky common date GB shilling to trade for it. Most of my trades of this sort only cost a 5 or 10% premium. Then if the crackpots on the net (like cladking) are wrong the small premium acts as buffer against losing the silver because you'll be able to trade it for two or three junky GB shillings. ie- you come out ahead even when you're wrong. It's a great life if you don't weaken.
It will bump them up.
Gold and silver are flying higher tonight.
Completed All CAC approved Classic Head $5 set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/mysetregistry/album/344241
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Well I better take a look - may have to increase prices. When do u think silver will hit $100 an oz?
I just looked and it's at $85
I think this all makes sense, but doesn't happen in a vacuum. All these industries and processes that have relied on silver at a much lower price point will naturally do everything possible to adjust and transition away from silver at the much higher prices. It definitely wont be a fast process, but it will happen.
These prices aren't high enough yet to encourage much conservation. Most products made with silver (unless large) use only tiny amounts. This is where the drag is. And it keeps increasing because of silver's unique characteristics. Nobody noticed that industry in the name of efficiency, expediency, and financial considerations had trimmed supply lines to the point that they were living hand to mouth in a world of diminishing amounts of the metal.
Of course demand will be stressed by increasing prices but that's what they're for; suppress demand and increase supply.
The issue here is that it is demand spiraling out of control and higher prices can increase demand and this means many "common" coins will be melted. How will we protect the good ones and where are they?
How about tokens and medals? These are getting destroyed too, you know. All those beautiful items made by Franklin Mint (et al) that have been shunned because of their "high" mintages of 10,000 are being destroyed and it will get worse.
What numismatics that exists today in large numbers will suffer catastrophic population loss if silver skyrockets?
At this rate we might hit it by Friday but I’d like to see it base and sit at $70-$75 or so for a while. Then in a month or so start moving again. That is a healthy way for any investment to go.
JMHO
Mike
MIKE B.
Your first paragraph is completely inaccurate. Google "thrifting". The solar energy companies already cut usage (per panel) by 50% due to rising costs.
Your 3rd paragraph is also inaccurate as demand dropped last year and is expected to drop again in 2026.
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Solar panels fit in with objects that are large. If they cut consumption by half I'd wager that most of this reduction was achieved long before silver crossed crossed $50 per ounce. It's not like they can wake up and turn the spigot down because silver went higher.
Solar uses a lot of silver but most of this silver is recoverable. The less they use in panels today, the less there is to recover later on.
The problem with silver isn't confined to a single field the problem is every field requires more metal.
None of that makes your 1st paragraph correct. In fact, your defense makes the original even more ludicrous. Your defense of the misinformation that the price isn't high enough to induce conservation is that the conservation started at LOWER prices.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
We may be on different subjects here.
I am merely saying "thrifting" in an ongoing concern in every business. The price of silver isn't high enough yet to discourage any buyers so many buyers have little concern. However as physical disappears they will become concerned about actually having a supply beyond the next couple weeks. No matter how little they use or how little is in products they must have silver to stay in business.
It doesn't make any difference how much they can save. They needed to see how much they could save all those years they were getting it cheap because of manipulation and rigging the system.
Just don't panic. There's plenty of silver for the foreseeable future, it's beyond this. Ten years from now maybe we'll be nearly out of silver if I am right. You can't eat silver so chasing it might be a bad idea. It will have a huge correction (because there's a lot of silver and that will be a good time to buy. I believe this correction could bring it down to $130 level.
A lot of silver is being melted and will be melted. Just try to send them the dregs. Try trading some dregs for good stuff once in a while. If you buy something don't buy junk. There are going to be many remarkable opportunities to acquire very rare numismatic items for melt.
With clad I always kindda figured if I didn't save it, no one would.
There will be a lot of silver in the same hands in ten years as there is now so don't count on anything common becoming rare. This didn't apply to clad and still you see very few collections!
Premium = Price - Silver Melt Value. Premium gets squeezed when collectors are buying for the wrong reasons. I also think scarcity is a major factor, but not for
My theoretical conclusion.
For truly rare coins, and silver value is so minor in terms of value.
For non rare silver coins, like 1964 Quarter dollars, values will be higher than normal. (As long as prices are still high).
For non-rare, non-silver coins, the premium will be squeezed (and prices flat) because demand is being driven by silver values.
A 1964 quarter's melt value is based on its 90% silver content, containing about 0.179 troy ounces of silver, fluctuating with the market, but often around $5 to $8 for circulated coins, though it can be much higher (over $10) with high silver prices or significantly more ($15+) for uncirculated or proof examples, as 1964 was the last year for silver circulating quarters.
Agreed!
Now that Silver has basically crashed down to the $50's/oz level, the premiums are back, sort of.
Go for the truly scarce coins that are getting sold at melt value, when the silver price comes back down. here the premium was getting squeezed.
But most of all don't buy something you hate. Think of your poor widow that has to get rid of it later!
We need a new thread: "What will plummeting silver do to common coins?"
The future collector base will never even come close to your prior claims and inferences.
No, it's your collecting parameters which have no economic market relevance, just as the quality differences and prices you exaggerate do not either.
As for the future coin market, nothing resembling your claims is about to happen. This includes the collector base never approaching your prior claims and inferences. This also includes the demographics trend which actually matters - ethnicity as opposed to collector age - more likely than not leading to a decrease in the collecting of most if not almost all post-1933 US coinage.
Yeah, I already knew that, but thanks for telling me something I already knew. Again, the collector base you have claimed and implied will never happen. It's a complete fantasy.
Post-1933 US coinage is more common vs. in the vicinity of 99% of all coinage ever struck dated prior to 2000. The vast majority of all US coinage isn't hard to buy, to anyone who will look in the right place. I'd estimate less than 5%, probably quite a bit less, and it's most concentrated in 19th century gold. It's disproportionately only using one or more "qualifiers" where it's difficult.
Go look on the Rare Coin Wholesalers and Atlas Numismatics websites which will make what I'm telling you plainly evident, again.
90% of which silver coins?
If 90% of post-1933 US silver coinage is melted, there will be no "shortage" because yes, this coinage is really common. Much of this coinage was hoarded in huge number, and the market prices make it evident the supply is much greater than the demand as a collectible, except to someone like you who confuses collecting with hoarding.
With Barber and earlier silver coinage, the preference in the quality where it will be melted isn't high enough where it will make much difference to the collectible premium. If it's melted where most of it disappears as you're implying, collectors will just buy something else.
What you call "elusive" is you looking in the wrong place or misrepresenting lack of a network effect as a scarcity. The world isn't about to "run out" of any of this coinage.
Again, the world isn't about to "run out" of this coinage. The preference on lower quality coinage from the series you're implying isn't ever going to increase enough either to create the market scarcity you're implying.
You exaggerate everything about whatever coin or series you choose to discuss, but what I'm telling you isn't any different than what I told South African collectors for their coinage over a decade ago.
See, unlike the coins you repeatedly exaggerate, the supply of a far higher proportion of Union (1923-1960) is insufficient for the collector base in the quality they would actually like to buy. Guess what? The prices are mostly still low, low except to you.
Why?
Because collectors don't pay "high" prices for coins they don't actually like that much. The vast majority of Union silver (much of the bronze too) is visually unappealing.