The future collector base will never even come close to your prior claims and inferences.
No, it's your collecting parameters which have no economic market relevance, just as the quality differences and prices you exaggerate do not either.
You seem to be missing the nature of demographics and human motivation.
World population has gone from 3 1/4 billion to 8 1/4 billion since coins were last popular in 1964. But far more importantly the middle class which was largely confined to the United States has gone from 400 million to 6.000 million; a 15x increase. Average age of the middle class has increased only a few years meaning the group of potential collectors is far higher than in 1964 when a high mintage 1950-D nickel was worth nearly $300 in today's money. You ignore facts like numismatic interest has more to do with free time and sufficient wealth than with any other factor including religion, politics, sex, and race. Obviously in practice there does exist a sexual component especially in this country.
This doesn't mean that coin collecting is going to grow fifteen fold because interest in 1964 was probably an aberration but it does show there is significant potential for expansion in the hobby base. Meanwhile all the old coins are becoming less available due to natural attrition as well as the unnatural attrition caused by the build out of a new electronic and solar powered world. Silver is being melted even at these lower prices and refineries are still running full out.
Right now there are still enough good delivery bars for central banks and speculators but when they run short there will be another round of discounts and probably some buyers will turn to storing other forms of silver such as 90% which will serve to lessen discounts and grossly increase off take of collectible coins.
Nobody knows the future but anyone can know the past and see some of the present. Anyone can identify trends even if their direction can't be known. You seem to live in some version of the 1960's. Perhaps you're right and I'm wrong but I wager you're wrong about where we are even if you're right about where we're going.
Copilot is taking a well deserved break but I've got an ace up my sleeve if I need it. ...
If 90% of post-1933 US silver coinage is melted, there will be no "shortage" because yes, this coinage is really common.
>
You're imagining 90% of each date being melted but it doesn't work that way. Rare dates and high grades mostly survive except for the normal 1% attrition while common dates and low grades are destroyed wholesale. And what coins aren't affected at all? That's right the bags of circulated quarters that don't change hands at all for many years. Coins like '40-D quarters are destroyed enmass while '64-D's often survive. '32-S quarters become more common than the '40-D. Meanwhile demand for both can increase several fold. Obviously if silver prices are too high fewer can afford to collect the coins limiting increases but there's only 15 ounces in a complete set. If average wealth increases as a result of efficiency gains most middle class people should be able to afford this even at much higher silver prices.
These changes aren't going to occur overnight. People will have years and years to get used to it and it will seem perfectly natural no matter what happens. But things are going to change because it's a new world with new drivers and new parameters. The way things are done is changing. The reason things are done is changing. Things being done are changing and the people collecting coins will be a new generation in a few short years.
And I have little doubt you will still be predicting the past.
Because collectors don't pay "high" prices for coins they don't actually like that much. The vast majority of Union silver (much of the bronze too) is visually unappealing.
I find some of the copper appealing but I don't collect it. Some of the nickel is attractive as well. I do collect this.
@jdimmick said:
It makes stuff that is sellable in store too darn expensive. like silver proof sets from the 60's, 76 3pc 40% sets, common date dollars, etc. People just wont pay the melt value, way too high
Yeah ,they weren't that popular at less than half the current price.
Paying up for silver just to own some (or stack some) is one thing. Paying "too much" or significantly more than a week ago, will cause some demand destruction.
Dealers should introduce those customers to non-silver proof collecting. The rarer proofs like the National Parks that were dont with cupro-nickel are very cheap compared to the silver proof sets.
I'm pretty sure people know about the clad sets but there is zero demand for them. A lot of people are buying them at 40% back of greysheet because there is virtually no wholesale or retail market right now. They aren't worth melting, but you will see more and more clad proofs in circulation as it can be hard to get face value for a lot of those sets.
I always spend them but that is getting harder and harder now
A lot of silver is being melted and will be melted. Just try to send them the dregs. Try trading some dregs for good stuff once in a while. If you buy something don't buy junk. There are going to be many remarkable opportunities to acquire very rare numismatic items for melt.
Agreed!
Now that Silver has basically crashed down to the $50's/oz level, the premiums are back, sort of.
Go for the truly scarce coins that are getting sold at melt value, when the silver price comes back down. here the premium was getting squeezed.
But most of all don't buy something you hate. Think of your poor widow that has to get rid of it later!
It's a good time to be trading out of common junk 999 and buying 90% or something like war nickels. You can get significantly more silver for no net cost. Try to buy stuff that had a nice premium that has been wiped out by higher prices. It's probably hard to find now but there are some motivated sellers of world coins and a lot of scarce world coins have almost no premium at all. You can find better date eagles at low premiums.
Whatever the price is doing it's always a good time to trade.
@OnWithTheHunt said:
Have a stash of silver that I'm planning to tap into soon but not sure what to do about the nearly complete circulated Mercury dime set I started as a kid and occasionally add to. Only short the 16D and the 42/1-D. I guess if silver keeps on rising most of it will go.
Understandable but I just want to hold on to my Mercury's because I like that coin and they are harder to find, probably with silver prices, harder in the future... If silver keeps going up, it's my Franklyn set that I may depart with...
I let my Franklins go when silver topped $100 Whitman holder and all. Still have my rolls of bullion coins. Holding for a while.
Comments
You seem to be missing the nature of demographics and human motivation.
World population has gone from 3 1/4 billion to 8 1/4 billion since coins were last popular in 1964. But far more importantly the middle class which was largely confined to the United States has gone from 400 million to 6.000 million; a 15x increase. Average age of the middle class has increased only a few years meaning the group of potential collectors is far higher than in 1964 when a high mintage 1950-D nickel was worth nearly $300 in today's money. You ignore facts like numismatic interest has more to do with free time and sufficient wealth than with any other factor including religion, politics, sex, and race. Obviously in practice there does exist a sexual component especially in this country.
This doesn't mean that coin collecting is going to grow fifteen fold because interest in 1964 was probably an aberration but it does show there is significant potential for expansion in the hobby base. Meanwhile all the old coins are becoming less available due to natural attrition as well as the unnatural attrition caused by the build out of a new electronic and solar powered world. Silver is being melted even at these lower prices and refineries are still running full out.
Right now there are still enough good delivery bars for central banks and speculators but when they run short there will be another round of discounts and probably some buyers will turn to storing other forms of silver such as 90% which will serve to lessen discounts and grossly increase off take of collectible coins.
Nobody knows the future but anyone can know the past and see some of the present. Anyone can identify trends even if their direction can't be known. You seem to live in some version of the 1960's. Perhaps you're right and I'm wrong but I wager you're wrong about where we are even if you're right about where we're going.
Copilot is taking a well deserved break but I've got an ace up my sleeve if I need it. ...
>
You're imagining 90% of each date being melted but it doesn't work that way. Rare dates and high grades mostly survive except for the normal 1% attrition while common dates and low grades are destroyed wholesale. And what coins aren't affected at all? That's right the bags of circulated quarters that don't change hands at all for many years. Coins like '40-D quarters are destroyed enmass while '64-D's often survive. '32-S quarters become more common than the '40-D. Meanwhile demand for both can increase several fold. Obviously if silver prices are too high fewer can afford to collect the coins limiting increases but there's only 15 ounces in a complete set. If average wealth increases as a result of efficiency gains most middle class people should be able to afford this even at much higher silver prices.
These changes aren't going to occur overnight. People will have years and years to get used to it and it will seem perfectly natural no matter what happens. But things are going to change because it's a new world with new drivers and new parameters. The way things are done is changing. The reason things are done is changing. Things being done are changing and the people collecting coins will be a new generation in a few short years.
And I have little doubt you will still be predicting the past.
As silver goes up so will a silver coins BV.
Sellers may be pricing ahead of that market
I find some of the copper appealing but I don't collect it. Some of the nickel is attractive as well. I do collect this.
I always spend them but that is getting harder and harder now
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
It's a good time to be trading out of common junk 999 and buying 90% or something like war nickels. You can get significantly more silver for no net cost. Try to buy stuff that had a nice premium that has been wiped out by higher prices. It's probably hard to find now but there are some motivated sellers of world coins and a lot of scarce world coins have almost no premium at all. You can find better date eagles at low premiums.
Whatever the price is doing it's always a good time to trade.
I let my Franklins go when silver topped $100 Whitman holder and all. Still have my rolls of bullion coins. Holding for a while.