Population vs value
tt400
Posts: 19 ✭
Ok I’m looking for some feedback . I see graded coins with higher population worth more than graded coins with less population. What gives? Is it because the total mintage population of a specific year is less although the graded population is higher?
For example -
1884-CC 63 DMPL
POP - 1100
PCGS value $750
1880-S 63 DMPL
POP - 758
PCGS value $300
0
Comments
The most likely generic answer is positive selection bias where higher valued coins are more likely to be submitted.
In your example, the scarcity difference isn't meaningful and "CC" Morgans are historically somewhat preferred over roughly equally available dates from other mints.
The more important component to the supply - demand market analysis is demand. More people want CC dollars than “S mint” dollars.
There is also perceived rarity factor. An 1880-S dollar needs to “walk on water” to get a P-L because there are so many of them. An exceptional 1884-CC in P-L is more unusual. There are also many more casual collectors who want the 1884-CC than the 1880-S. The Carson City Mint has a dedicated following.
Demand for CC’s has always been greater than for some other mintmarks like S’s
I personally don’t collect Morgan’s, but I would probably buy the CC coin for the $750 versus never taking a second look at the 80-s even at a heavy discount
CCs are the logical exception because of their wild west popularity.
When looking at series that do not include CCs, often one can find date mint mark combinations overvalued and others undervalued relative to other coins in the series. Often it is because the published mintages carry more weight than the published populations.
Look at the population in higher grades also.
Collector, occasional seller
It’s not just the CC mint I’ve found this with, that a more common coin is priced higher by PCGS.
So I guess the answer is that it’s not necessarily based off of rarity but more supply and demand.
A more common coin is in higher demand and more expensive and a coin that’s more rare. Interesting.
A little confusing.. but interesting
Yes I always do that also, still the same scenario a lot of the time. MUCH more scarce in current and higher grades, but is cheaper than a coin that’s 200-300% more common
Haven’t looked, but how many are graded 40? My guess is that vastly more CCs are circulated and graded than the 80 S, because it’s worth it. These two may or may not fit that bill, but tons of coins do.
@tt400 . Try thinking about some of the sets and subsets individuals are trying to build. I bet there are easily twice as many people trying to build a sub set of Carson City dollars then there are people doing San Fran. james
Supply and Demand. Period.
It's true in all collectibles.
Action #1 has a total graded pop of 83 and sells for $700,000 in good. Action #2 has a total graded pop of 44 and sells for $25,000 in good.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
While on the subject of population could someone explain to me the population data PCGS shows when I do a "verify". For some coins there is a number followed by another number in parentheses. How do I interpret the two numbers? is the number in paren for PCGS plus other graders?
The population of 84-CC in XF40 is just 21 coins. In fact, it’s about 20 in every circulated grade below AU55. Other than the better dates, circulated CCs are very rarely seen. And getting them graded at that level is not worth the cost since the coin’s value basically doesn’t change from VG to MS. The coins are more valuable than circulated 80-S Morgans but they won’t sell for enough of a premium in the holder to justify the slabbing expense.
The graded populations have nothing to do with the quantity minted
Sometimes there are 1000 minted and 100,000 graded...
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Comparing Carson City coins with San Francisco coins using just about any parameters one can think of is like comparing apples to oranges.
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest of them have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."
---Will Rogers (Nov 4, 1879-Aug 15,1935)
This.
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Don
Something else to consider is that that population reports are skewed from all the crackouts and regrades over time. This is more of an issue in higher grades but can still affect a popular series/date/mm like the CC.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
graded population and worldwide surviving population have an inverse correlation
It’s also interesting to read some of the write-ups when you’re looking up coins/values on the PCGS website. For instance, the Morgan 1893-S had a mintage of 100,000 but only 10,000 are thought to exist in all grades now according to several numismatic experts. The 1909-S VDB is pretty plentiful but high demand has always kept the cost of even lower graded ones high. It’s all about demand…and of course availability….
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