How high do you think SILVER will go before the bottom falls out ?
mach19
Posts: 4,142 ✭✭✭
I sold a lot of mine years ago on the way up $50.... Then it sank back around $20
TIN SOLDIERS & NIXON COMING 
3
Comments
$92
If two brothers can squeeze silver to $50, imagine what a world of stackers is about to do.
I don't see the bottom falling out. Silver is not going to do technical trading the chartists love. Yes, it will bob with some volatility for sure. But the price governance is due to industrial supply and demand. Supply is in a widening deficit from the mining sector, which cannot respond to meet the demand just because the price suggests it should. The upcoming solid state battery technology will exert even more pressure.
What will limit the price is demand reduction from the consumer side of industrial products. When solar, EVs, AI farms, ... become prohibitively expensive for the various consumer classes, production will wane and thus pressure on supply will as well. An ordinary person might want a fast charging and long range EV, but will need to settle for less, more aligned with current technology. There is only so much silver to go around.
Price also goes up, as values in dollars as the money supply increases, precipitating higher inflation. That's just natural and problematic for [dollar] savers but not earners, provided wages inflate accordingly too.
Where the top lies is impossible to predict. But anyone thinking there will every be sub-$40 silver again is plain uninformed.
All I know is that every chart I’ve ever seen that goes straight up, collapses
Silver last traded at $40 on Aug 31st. What changed in the industrial supply/demand dynamics (your argument for the price increase) that warranted a doubling of the spot price in fewer than four months?
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
Copper is also rising and I don't think it is speculation.
"Copper futures rose up to $5.7 per pound before partially paring gains on Friday (12/26), a five-month high as global markets reacted to strong demand and supply constraints. The metal continues to benefit from the global energy transition, contributing to its 42% annual gain in New York. Prices were further supported by a recent slump in the US dollar, which made raw materials more affordable for international buyers, while concerns persist over potential US tariff reviews in 2026, raising the risk of supply tightness for global markets. Structural demand for copper remains robust, driven by long-term trends in electric vehicles, renewable energy projects, power grid expansion, and AI infrastructure development. "
So next Tuesday.
I'm not hearing anything about a bottom yet?
I think silver could power future batteries. Hence the buying. My regrets is selling lots and lots and lots of silver last year to fund a numismatic purchase. Although I love that coin (old green holder and all, sigh), somehow generic silver has outperformed numismatic coins. That lesson from the past may apply to the future.
Peak Silver Price (Inflation‑Adjusted to Today):
≈ $140–$150 per ounce
Macrotrends’ inflation‑adjusted chart shows that the 1980 blow‑off top — nominally $49.45/oz — translates to roughly $140+ per ounce in today’s CPI‑adjusted dollars.
This is the highest real price ever recorded.
WOW !!! I guess time will tell !
Maybe...but I've heard and seen that said about lots of commodities which are subject to demand destruction, speculative excess, new found sources of supply, etc.
I can assure you that when Americans were sitting in gas lines in the 1970's with "Odd" and "Even" days nobody ever thought that "Hubert's Peak" (look it up) would be repealed by shale and technology.
You get a recession or slowing growth or news that China is unloading silver -- you'll have a couple of down-limit days in a row and peel of 25% of the price in a week.
That's the thing about commodities, more so than stocks or bonds: they overshoot to the upside and downside much faster than other financial instruments.
I was active during the peak in the 1980s. I remember a few days later it was $25 and I bought 100 ounces and was thankful to get out with a $5 loss before it went down even further.
“One million dollars”
Menomonee Falls Wisconsin USA
http://www.pcgs.com/SetRegistr...dset.aspx?s=68269&ac=1">Musky 1861 Mint Set
Silver is very common, and becomes even more common if this price holds up because many previously-unprofitable mining projects become worthwhile.
There is no massive new industrial demand. It's going up because it can (right now), and because of speculation.
Nobody knows how much higher before it blows off again. That's the fun of it!
Ive been thinking around $150. Might be a stretch but so isn't $80.
Student of numismatics and collector of Morgan dollars
Successful BST transactions with: Namvet Justindan Mattniss RWW olah_in_MA
Dantheman984 Toyz4geo SurfinxHI greencopper RWW bigjpst bretsan MWallace logger7 JWP
There is no guarantee that "the bottom will fall out".
I do think that the price will drop and perhaps stabilize somewhat in mid-January at around $63.
That said, I am not really buying or selling at this time - except for what I might need for a minting project.
Although different circumstances , Ive seen 1980, 2011 and now this, its just a matter of time. Ill admit this one has continued to run longer and higher than I thought, but will see.
And I agree, demand factor dosnt change that fast overnight to cause price rise like this in such a short term. Lots of spec drive IMO
Im guessing it will approach $100 by mid-January.
As has been said we shall see.
Student of numismatics and collector of Morgan dollars
Successful BST transactions with: Namvet Justindan Mattniss RWW olah_in_MA
Dantheman984 Toyz4geo SurfinxHI greencopper RWW bigjpst bretsan MWallace logger7 JWP
I think it will pull back when it touches $80, but I expect it to reach $160 next year
I'm surprised that few people realize that the former high of $50 in 1980 won't be reached again until silver is $208
Commems and Early Type
Using the 1980 price level as a guide will prove to be a mistake. This is a very different situation with very different "rules" in place. When the decline comes it could be a very sharp and quick one. Small holders of physical silver such as coin collector "stackers" are likely to let greed lead them to wait too long to get out.
All about supply and demand. The demand far exceeds supply and new supply is not coming on quick enough. Silvers use in EV's will be fun to watch.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Difficult to predict. Silver is on a major bull market roll. Many players looking get a little ahead (pricing) of the current market (bullion based slabbed coins). They are in it to ride it all the way up / huge profits, no prisoners taken. As market starts to get higher they reprice material (so not give it away).
They were already loaded pretty much well up on the stuff before this bull run hit. They may sell a few take some nice profit now but the goal get all the money b4 it flakes out. Not running for just first down but touchdown.
When the U.S. mint slashes their prices you know it’s time. The bottom will have officially fallen out. Historically , how often does that happen ?
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
My hunch is north of $150 before a significant correction -- which, personally, I don't think would last very long. The gap between declining supply and relentlessly rising demand is simply too big already, and spooling up production, even if huge new supplies were discovered, would take years to implement.
"Collapse" is a term that begs definition, otherwise it's just a theoretical bluff. Does it mean dropping from $150 to $100? Or does it mean going to $30? I suppose the first one is plausible, but I think the other is a hallucination.
The number I'm most curious about is, which one gets me to send my absurdly big sterling flatware set to the melting pot? All I'm certain of is, it's out there.
Maybe $100.
They keep talking about how silver is needed for solar panels. The trouble is the higher the silver price goes, the less viable solar energy is. It’s already a more expensive source for electricity than fossil fuels.
The vertical long term chart is a bit ominous. Think of it as a force of gravity. You throw a ball straight into the air and it will come straight down and plop you in the face. A severe sell-off is not out of the question. This has happened time and time again. A period of extreme volatility until things settle down and calm down for the better part of a generation before we do this all over again.
The question is how high will silver go before the market selloff?
Yes, we have all seen this through the years, if you have been a collector for 60 years. The quesiton is, why are the banks buying so much gold and maybe even silver? Inflation is low in the U.S. economy, and the U.S. economy is not on its back, like it was in 1980.
Frankly I would not want to overly long in either gold and silver, which means I should be selling. The trouble is most of my holdings are collectors' items.
the bottom will never fall out, there will be some $10-$20 corrections but never a 80-90% drop
Ask here, where this thread would be on topic: https://forums.collectors.com/categories/precious-metals
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Nothing moves in a straight line. But the trend is upward. I think its going over $100 for sure.
The interesting thing is that Silver is moving faster than Gold, and the ratio of Silver to Gold price is rising. Silver demand is driven in part by speculation, in part by industrial demand.
Yes they do use it and other metals in solar panels, batteries etc. Remeber photography? that used to be a very silver intensive industrial use. Also silver is used to clean stuff. My mother used to have a nylon bag with some worn out quarters in it that she would put in the washing machine! I have no idea why, but I did find out that my hot tub has a device that uses silver nugett to sanitize the water.
I was reading that Silver production is a by-product of copper production. So the more copper is being dug up, the more silver. But that supply is not keeping up with demand. Theres lots of silver still in the ground, but its not in a refined state, so the prices have to be high enough to make it worth digging up.
In the short run I expect that a lot of dealers will sell off their 90% junk silver to smelters. I dont know how real this is, but I always thought it was illegal to melt down coins. That being said, I have a jewler friend who liked to buy pure silver and gold bullion coins to melt and make into jewelry. My point is that there are a lot of junk silver coins which need to be melted down. Maybe that would breath some life into collecting 20th century coins.
Eh. It affects us collectors. I had to explain to someone with quite a few raw St Gaudens that there was no longer any numismatic premium on the coins because they were moderate grade and not worth sending to PCGS.
There are also a lot of collectors sitting on rolls of 90% trying to figure out when to sell. Those rolls are approaching $600 for half dollars and quarters.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Yup - I just gave Laura an original 1955 half roll to sell
This isn't your fathers, grandfathers, great grandfather's, etc Silver anymore.
I can see a significant pullback but with a much higher basement than seen before. Before climbing again.
BUCKLE UP!
COPPER is gutter !
Yes, it does. And there are other threads where the discussion is about that, but not this one.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I have most of my play money in coins, specifically in colonial coins and paper. I don’t let outside influences affect how I collect and I am actively looking to add to my collection. I have recently sold off a bunch of silver. I prefer selling into strength rather than selling into a market that is dropping.
One way that inflation being hidden is by sellers offering their goods at a contained price but with less product in the packaging. What the Fed should be doing right now is tightening before this gets out of control. The stock market is being artificially inflated and who knows what is going on with economic releases. Unfortunately, I believe the Fed chairman has his hands tied by the current administration. It’s become a bit of a clown show.
Mark, you are a purist.
Back in the day I was a very serious stamp collector and had minimal interest in coins. It was my wife wanting to buy some sterling silver place settings at Nieman Marcus for family gatherings that rekindled my interest in coins. When we got married Wedding Registries were all about fine china, crystal glassware, and AND sterling silver place settings. Still in graduate school we did not think they were affordable for our circle of family and friends.
BUT ten years later at coin shops we had a ball finding all these silver and gold treasures while at the same time ignoring coins. Recently I have been slowly selling to fund new numismatic treasures found at coin shops.
Are lines of people wanting to sell silver of all types lining up at coin shops these days? This is what happened back during the 1979-80 silver boom. (I don't know the answer, that is why I am asking.)
Well, the easy answer is YES. But not in a mania way like back then. This run up has been longer lived and it's strung out all those who have been dumping so that the shops have been able to handle it for the most part. For now. Eventually though the refineries stopped buying again unless in purest forms. That has been easing up a bit but not across the spectrum. Lines though? Yes and no. Depends on the dealer. The ones with a decent footprint on social media have been pushed to the point where they aren't answering phones anymore. Have lines waiting for shops to open. Being wiped out of the more desirable bullion. That's another big difference. Many are still buying even at 79 bucks. Or a mix of all.
But it's hit and miss. All depends on the dealer. THere are lots out there that think or advertise like they are dealers. But are not. True dealers don't shy away from any deal. Unless they don't have any outlet for glut.
COPPER is gutter !
Slowing growth would cut production far more than demand. China hasn't even instituted the export controls yet!
Mebbe we can work our way back around to coins.
Big question:
WHO is buying all the junk silver and for how much an ounce?H
I follow technical analysis on stocks and commodities, and I do not see "the bottom dropping out." With all the new uses and depleted mines, there will likely as always be a correction. However, all of the charts that I follow indicate that pullback, perhaps as low as the high 50s will then be a base for a newer higher move well above the point where the correction begins.
Recognize that while silver smelters prefer .999 fine rounds, they will turn more to .9 circulated coinage, and then to lower quality silver. The ultimate goal is to make as many 1000 oz (+/- 10%) of .999 silver that meets Comex standards for delivery on underlying PSLV or SLV paper trades. Recently, very large quantities of paper silver have been delivered rather than just extended or paid off in cash putting a significant strain on the physical quantities. Over the longer term, I see the discount for lower quality silver (40% for example) closing much nearer to the higher quality .999 rounds, as physical demand uses up the higher quality sources. There is tremendous industrial buying going on compared to previous trading only induced spikes. In any event good luck to all.
Reality will have to rear its ugly head into the real markets for the metals. Read all the commentaries on zero hedge, writers like Stockman, Jim Rogers, the Kitco commentaries who've seen the boom and bust cycles over and over again. Usually there's a trigger if this is a bubble, certainly there are plenty of financial bubbles that could burst. What were the triggers in prior cycles? What are the variables now? Greed and fear are the drivers. Ultimately no one really needs metals to survive; which is not true of basic essentials such as food, clothing, housing, fuel, transportation, etc..
One interview:
"On Friday, we saw a record high price spike for silver that produced a record high price for the white metal. Meanwhile, we saw record high prices for gold on the same day.
This has never happened before, and that shows the currency crisis long predicted is here. Rubino says,
“Currencies are pouring into real money in anticipation of the existing fiat currencies dying. That is a whole different thing and on a much bigger scale because the numbers are grossly inflated after 70 years of a credit super cycle. So, what we have seen so far is really just the beginning.
Gold and silver have had huge runs, but they are doing it when things are more or less still normal. Precious metals are starting to soar in anticipation of something abnormal coming.
Right now, this is a bigger gold than silver story because gold is the money we go back to when national currencies fail. Silver is a more complex story because it is also an industrial metal.
There are new industries that are using more and more silver, and there is just not enough silver to satisfy that demand.”
Rubino contends the silver price spike will bring on a lot of volatility. Rubino points out, “That is pretty much a lock..."
"Silver is probably going to bounce around a lot in the next week or so. . .. All the silver is being sucked away, and when they run out, they say we will just pay you cash for these futures contracts. If that happens, that is basically the end of paper exchanges.
We will just totally stop trusting them.
Why would anybody want a long futures contract on an exchange that just defaults . . .. This is another big thing that might happen in the coming weeks.
When you see prices move like this, an awful lot of bad things become possible. . ..
There are a lot of shorts out there that just went massively underwater on Friday. . .. Somebody big has a lot of losses. . .. It’s like Warren Buffett says, ‘You only know who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out. Well, the tide has gone out for silver, and now we are going to find out who was unwisely short that market in the past week.”
Rubino sees silver resetting to at least $200 per ounce in the not-too-distant future. Gold will also reset to at least $10,000 per ounce.
Rubino says the next big trend is Big Tech players buying actual silver mines and bypassing metal exchanges altogether. Rubino says,
“Big Tech players are going to go out and get silver now, so they are set for the next few years. Yes, some of them are starting to buy silver mines.
In the mining sector, this is one of the big changes we will see coming soon.
Maybe Tesla buys First Majestic or some mine like that. Tesla buys a big silver mining company with multiple silver mines to guarantee silver supply going forward. . .. Google, Meta or Microsoft can pay insane amounts of money for commodities if they need to. It’s inventory building and panic buying in some cases. . ..
All roads lead to higher precious metals right now. The only way it doesn’t is if there is a global nuclear war that extinguishes civilization.
Take that out of the equation, and everything points to weaker currencies and higher precious metals prices.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/when-prices-move-awful-lot-bad-things-become-possible
I sold too many too early, but at least all my buyers are happy, and that’s what counts.
KA BOOM!
COPPER is gutter !
COPPER is gutter !
Whoops. LULz. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
I just went into Kitco as of 9:PM ET Silver was down 3.26% Nuffin huge