@jmski52 said: I never said we are currently in a mania. Perhaps your cognitive bias blinds your comprehension?
I dont fall into the traps...I make them .
You mentioned a mania, and you set traps in addition to suggesting that I have cognitive bias.
Interesting. What is your point?
Of course you made the suggestion of a mania. Why would you mention it at all? Plausible deniability - if you didn't exactly say that we are in a mania, you can always bring it up to scare "folks" away from precious metals. Right?
Never underestimate the power of a mania. To act on such a move is the problem. In 2011 the ratio hit 32 and folk had a window of about 12-24 hours to capitalize, because just 5 days later the ratio was back to 43. And given today environment, it would probably be near mpossible to realize that ratio due to counter-party risk (they aint gonna offer spot prices).
Why do you think that we "must" hit a ratio window that only lasts 12-24 hours? That's not the reason for owning physical metals. The main reason is because your financial system (the one who employs you) isn't stable or reliable anymore.
Yes...jmski...I said dont underestimate a mania...a gsr of 30 because gold is 6000 and silver at 200 would be a mania. I said in response to goldfinger saying it wouldn't happen. If gsr hit 30 in short order because gold was 6000 and silver 200, then yes, that would make a mania. The rest of your comment is just biased and contemptuous.
Why would that be a mania? It could be but I don't see why certain numbers would make it so.
now that there is silver mania, the gsr will be heavily scrutinized. i would expect it to a point of reistance to the silver price on the upside once it hits a non-hunt-brothers-spike of likes of something from the late 70s-80s "set of lows"
@jmski52 said: I never said we are currently in a mania. Perhaps your cognitive bias blinds your comprehension?
I dont fall into the traps...I make them .
You mentioned a mania, and you set traps in addition to suggesting that I have cognitive bias.
Interesting. What is your point?
Of course you made the suggestion of a mania. Why would you mention it at all? Plausible deniability - if you didn't exactly say that we are in a mania, you can always bring it up to scare "folks" away from precious metals. Right?
Never underestimate the power of a mania. To act on such a move is the problem. In 2011 the ratio hit 32 and folk had a window of about 12-24 hours to capitalize, because just 5 days later the ratio was back to 43. And given today environment, it would probably be near mpossible to realize that ratio due to counter-party risk (they aint gonna offer spot prices).
Why do you think that we "must" hit a ratio window that only lasts 12-24 hours? That's not the reason for owning physical metals. The main reason is because your financial system (the one who employs you) isn't stable or reliable anymore.
Yes...jmski...I said dont underestimate a mania...a gsr of 30 because gold is 6000 and silver at 200 would be a mania. I said in response to goldfinger saying it wouldn't happen. If gsr hit 30 in short order because gold was 6000 and silver 200, then yes, that would make a mania. The rest of your comment is just biased and contemptuous.
Why would that be a mania? It could be but I don't see why certain numbers would make it so.
You're right. Might be 202, or 198 or even 209.11. The actual number doesn't matter, but the magnitude and duration are important. We've seen manias before (in many assets). It will happen again. Thats what humans do.
God bless this gift. God bless The Metal of Kings™. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
The reason metals are moving isnt because of the financial system...but other things, bigger things, are breaking down.
There's more than one reason (including a breakdown of the fiat money financial system), and the bigger things you mentioned include global competition for resources.
In addition to that, the debt-based monetary system, institutionalized by Western bankers has been the undoing of the West.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said: The reason metals are moving isnt because of the financial system...but other things, bigger things, are breaking down.
There's more than one reason (including a breakdown of the fiat money financial system), and the bigger things you mentioned include global competition for resources.
In addition to that, the debt-based monetary system, institutionalized by Western bankers has been the undoing of the West.
@MsMorrisine said:
gold is going to peak at 4800. prepare for it. silver will then go back to 50
Silver back to 50? Maybe on a momentary paper event. Market dynamics have changed. For better or worse, Trump is changing trade and how global markets function. Those who expect things to remain the same after this global rebalancing and restructuring are going to very much regret selling PMs.
@MsMorrisine said:
gold is going to peak at 4800. prepare for it. silver will then go back to 50
Silver back to 50? Maybe on a momentary paper event. Market dynamics have changed. For better or worse, Trump is changing trade and how global markets function. Those who expect things to remain the same after this global rebalancing and restructuring are going to very much regret selling PMs.
the same dynamics existed in may.
the dollar index is just a tad higher today than in the beginning of september when silver was $40
@MsMorrisine said:
gold is going to peak at 4800. prepare for it. silver will then go back to 50
Silver back to 50? Maybe on a momentary paper event. Market dynamics have changed. For better or worse, Trump is changing trade and how global markets function. Those who expect things to remain the same after this global rebalancing and restructuring are going to very much regret selling PMs.
the same dynamics existed in may.
the dollar index is just a tad higher today than in the beginning of september when silver was $40
what has changed since september?
Sorry, I don't have the time or inclination to type out a year in review of economic and financial market changes and events. Many posts throughout the year in this thread touched or mentioned some of them. It's likely the culmination of many trends and events and if you're looking for a one day x happens next day price y changes you're not going to find it.
Market dynamics have changed. For better or worse, Trump is changing trade and how global markets function. Those who expect things to remain the same after this global rebalancing and restructuring are going to very much regret selling PMs.
I believe this to be the case. I may not agree with some of the elements of the new policies, but it's coming in spades.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@MsMorrisine said:
gold is going to peak at 4800. prepare for it. silver will then go back to 50
Silver back to 50? Maybe on a momentary paper event. Market dynamics have changed. For better or worse, Trump is changing trade and how global markets function. Those who expect things to remain the same after this global rebalancing and restructuring are going to very much regret selling PMs.
Maybe. But what if we get a round of "March 1933" gold confiscation/turn in, or wind fall profit taxes applied to PM's?
Within 5-8 yrs you won't be able to "sell" a quantity of USA gold coins without the transaction being fully recorded and digitized.....unless you trade for barter. 99% of the country doesn't own any gold coins. And those people will not care one bit whatever means have to be applied to separate someone from their gold coins. Only then, will they be assured that blue skies will prevail.
No doubt silver AND gold will get a strong, multi-month correction to shake things out from now until mid-2026. Most of those who jumped on the $50+ silver or $4000+ gold band wagons will get tossed BEFORE the final run up into 2028-2032.
Remember that brutal corrections back in mid-2006, fall of 2008 on the way to the 2011 highs?
tht's not a gold-to-silver ratio chart. the is a dual gold and silver price chart that leaves it to the viewer to estimate the gsr for every blip on it.
having a chart of the gsr is much better
the chart is useful though. to me, the gsr during the two silver price spikes is meaningless as they are aberrations.
@jmski52 said:
We haven't seen even a hint of mania at this point. Retail still isn't standing in lines around the block. In fact, retail >sellers in the US are liquidating to make ends meet but the price is still rising.
Why should we see that ? We never did before.
You fall into the trap of thinking that you must buy at the extreme bottom and sell just before a blowoff top. Good >luck with that. Same mistake that blitz makes with his SLV clicker.
Silver is up a ton. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs....
In 2011 after the price peak I sold a 1/2 bag of 90% at around 36 and was happy to do it. I didn't do that because I >was worried about a price drop. I did it to buy a nice Large Cent but that's another story.
That was a good price if you bought under $10. Nothing to be ashamed of. Catching 75% of an up move is great.
volatility is to be expected. The fundamentals will win, but not if you think that you can time the market. >blitz jumped out of SLV, just in time to watch it rise further. Such is the temptation of the bogus paper market and >the mouse trader.
The paper market is legitimate. Just because YOU don't like it and click frauds think without it silver would be $500 an ounce means nothing.
@MsMorrisine said:
i'm talking since september. nothing has changed since then
That's the problem. People think and believe that any single event or market trend change will have immediate effect that can be isolated as the cause of a price move. But some changes take time before they impact the market. It takes time to deplete hoards and stocks, and recent reports are that many vaults have been emptied out. This did not happen overnight but is likely the response to a change in demand or markets that began months ago.
@MsMorrisine said:
gold is going to peak at 4800. prepare for it. silver will then go back to 50
Silver back to 50? Maybe on a momentary paper event. Market dynamics have changed. For better or worse, Trump is changing trade and how global markets function. Those who expect things to remain the same after this global rebalancing and restructuring are going to very much regret selling PMs.
Maybe. But what if we get a round of "March 1933" gold confiscation/turn in, or wind fall profit taxes applied to PM's?
Within 5-8 yrs you won't be able to "sell" a quantity of USA gold coins without the transaction being fully recorded and digitized.....unless you trade for barter. 99% of the country doesn't own any gold coins. And those people will not care one bit whatever means have to be applied to separate someone from their gold coins. Only then, will they be assured that blue skies will prevail.
No doubt silver AND gold will get a strong, multi-month correction to shake things out from now until mid-2026. Most of those who jumped on the $50+ silver or $4000+ gold band wagons will get tossed BEFORE the final run up into 2028-2032.
Remember that brutal corrections back in mid-2006, fall of 2008 on the way to the 2011 highs?
Yeah, we can play the what-if game. Certainly the move higher will not be straight up and there will be volatility. But it's hard to "get tossed" if you're not using leverage or funds you need immediately. Of course the traders who are will see challenges.
@Mike59 said:
Getting Scary!! Can’t keep printing and spending $200 billion a month over what you take in and not except prices of everything to keep going up.
I get the whole "spot is worth more" BS, but that aint backwardation. Thats like trying to draw a trend with only 2 points....doesnt work and isnt accurate.
I get the whole "spot is worth more" BS, but that aint backwardation.
you're arguing with the cme
they are the futures exchange
Not arguing with anyone. Not arguing at all. Their "definition" only applies to futures vs physical spot. That is not backwardation in the view of traders or managers.
That is your will. However, the markets dont care about spot vs the front month contact. Its good content for newsletters and vloggers, but traders/managers dont care. And its the traders/managers that make markets, not vloggers.
This isnt much different than those who kept saying we were in a recession in 2022 because GDP met the "definition". Folk argued about that too, and now we realize there was no recession.
Platinum was back up strong to $2,370 as I am writing. Checked with APMEX what they pay for graded proof platinum eagles 69 or 70 and was offered $2155 or $215 under spot just now. Their lowest selling price is $2,755 or $385 above spot for a spread of $600 per ounce!
That is your will. However, the markets dont care about spot vs the front month contact. Its good content for newsletters and vloggers, but traders/managers dont care. And its the traders/managers that make markets, not vloggers.
This isnt much different than those who kept saying we were in a recession in 2022 because GDP met the "definition". Folk argued about that too, and now we realize there was no recession.
Why would you say that, are you a trader? Since most futures contracts close out for cash and not physical delivery, I would think short traders do care when spot is higher then future months contracts.
@Goldminers said:
Platinum was back up strong to $2,370 as I am writing. Checked with APMEX what they pay for graded proof platinum eagles 69 or 70 and was offered $2155 or $215 under spot just now. Their lowest selling price is $2,755 or $385 above spot for a spread of $600 per ounce!
Should have just been buying and selling PPLT.
I don't disagree with you; but, think of the fun you had collecting those PF changing reverses.
By the way, MONEX is quoting $2,515 ASK / $2.392 BID for MS in units of 10.
@MsMorrisine said:
gold is going to peak at 4800. prepare for it. silver will then go back to 50
Silver back to 50? Maybe on a momentary paper event. Market dynamics have changed. For better or worse, Trump is changing trade and how global markets function. Those who expect things to remain the same after this global rebalancing and restructuring are going to very much regret selling PMs.
the same dynamics existed in may.
the dollar index is just a tad higher today than in the beginning of september when silver was $40
what has changed since september?
Demand for gold has changed, look at the price.
Supply and demand for silver has changed, look at the price.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
@MsMorrisine said:
i'll take change in fed independence for +5
@derryb said:
Demand for gold has changed, look at the price.
Supply and demand for silver has changed, look at the price.
It would have to make the Dollar much less desirable to the rest of the World.
Numismatist. 54 year member ANA. Former ANA Senior Authenticator. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and ANA Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Author of "The Enigmatic Lincoln Cents of 1922," Available now from Whitman or Amazon.
Comments
Why would that be a mania? It could be but I don't see why certain numbers would make it so.
now that there is silver mania, the gsr will be heavily scrutinized. i would expect it to a point of reistance to the silver price on the upside once it hits a non-hunt-brothers-spike of likes of something from the late 70s-80s "set of lows"
anyone have a gsr chart from 1970 to date?
You're right. Might be 202, or 198 or even 209.11. The actual number doesn't matter, but the magnitude and duration are important. We've seen manias before (in many assets). It will happen again. Thats what humans do.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
God bless this gift. God bless The Metal of Kings™. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Retiring at 55, what day is today?
gold is going to peak at 4800. prepare for it. silver will then go back to 50
Silver is going to go back to its once upon a time all time high? Wow going out on a limb there? Not 😆
COPPER is gutter !
silver is now over $1,1120 a pound.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
The reason metals are moving isnt because of the financial system...but other things, bigger things, are breaking down.
There's more than one reason (including a breakdown of the fiat money financial system), and the bigger things you mentioned include global competition for resources.
In addition to that, the debt-based monetary system, institutionalized by Western bankers has been the undoing of the West.
I knew it would happen.
Not the reasons im thinking of.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Silver back to 50? Maybe on a momentary paper event. Market dynamics have changed. For better or worse, Trump is changing trade and how global markets function. Those who expect things to remain the same after this global rebalancing and restructuring are going to very much regret selling PMs.
the same dynamics existed in may.
the dollar index is just a tad higher today than in the beginning of september when silver was $40
what has changed since september?
Sorry, I don't have the time or inclination to type out a year in review of economic and financial market changes and events. Many posts throughout the year in this thread touched or mentioned some of them. It's likely the culmination of many trends and events and if you're looking for a one day x happens next day price y changes you're not going to find it.
i'm talking since september. nothing has changed since then
Market dynamics have changed. For better or worse, Trump is changing trade and how global markets function. Those who expect things to remain the same after this global rebalancing and restructuring are going to very much regret selling PMs.
I believe this to be the case. I may not agree with some of the elements of the new policies, but it's coming in spades.
I knew it would happen.
Google does.
"Anyone have a GSR chart from 1970?"
Successful BST:here and ATS, bumanchu, wdrob, hashtag, KeeNoooo, mikej61, Yonico, Meltdown, BAJJERFAN, Excaliber, lordmarcovan, cucamongacoin, robkool, bradyc, tonedcointrader, mumu, Windycity, astrotrain, tizofthe, overdate, rwyarmch, mkman123, Timbuk3,GBurger717, airplanenut, coinkid855 ,illini420, michaeldixon, Weiss, Morpheus, Deepcoin, Collectorcoins, AUandAG, D.Schwager, blu62vette,
Maybe. But what if we get a round of "March 1933" gold confiscation/turn in, or wind fall profit taxes applied to PM's?
Within 5-8 yrs you won't be able to "sell" a quantity of USA gold coins without the transaction being fully recorded and digitized.....unless you trade for barter. 99% of the country doesn't own any gold coins. And those people will not care one bit whatever means have to be applied to separate someone from their gold coins. Only then, will they be assured that blue skies will prevail.
No doubt silver AND gold will get a strong, multi-month correction to shake things out from now until mid-2026. Most of those who jumped on the $50+ silver or $4000+ gold band wagons will get tossed BEFORE the final run up into 2028-2032.
Remember that brutal corrections back in mid-2006, fall of 2008 on the way to the 2011 highs?
tht's not a gold-to-silver ratio chart. the is a dual gold and silver price chart that leaves it to the viewer to estimate the gsr for every blip on it.
having a chart of the gsr is much better
the chart is useful though. to me, the gsr during the two silver price spikes is meaningless as they are aberrations.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1441/gold-to-silver-ratio
log scale is on by default. the below chart is not log scale
Why should we see that ? We never did before.
Silver is up a ton. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs....
That was a good price if you bought under $10. Nothing to be ashamed of. Catching 75% of an up move is great.
The paper market is legitimate. Just because YOU don't like it and click frauds think without it silver would be $500 an ounce means nothing.
How about they are moving because they are small, illiquid markets ? While gold trades about $150 billion daily, silver is maybe a third of that.
4800 ÷ (your expected GSR) = what for silver?
That's the problem. People think and believe that any single event or market trend change will have immediate effect that can be isolated as the cause of a price move. But some changes take time before they impact the market. It takes time to deplete hoards and stocks, and recent reports are that many vaults have been emptied out. This did not happen overnight but is likely the response to a change in demand or markets that began months ago.
Yeah, we can play the what-if game. Certainly the move higher will not be straight up and there will be volatility. But it's hard to "get tossed" if you're not using leverage or funds you need immediately. Of course the traders who are will see challenges.
to start, we are not in backwardation because the lmba's vaults are not "emptied out"
New ATH tonight. $4600 coming.
We are not in backwardation because each future months contract is higher than the previous month
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
kitco high 4598.20
that's not it
read this from the cme
https://www.cmegroup.com/education/courses/introduction-to-ferrous-metals/what-is-contango-and-backwardation.html
kitco session high 4602
And oh, by the way, this metal isn’t slouching:
Getting Scary!! Can’t keep printing and spending $200 billion a month over what you take in and not except prices of everything to keep going up.
MIKE B.
Futures, dollar see knee-jerk drop on Powell investigation
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/futures-dollar-see-knee-jerk-drop-on-powell-investigation/ar-AA1U0Sbe
dollar index giving back friday's gains
Fed Chair Powell says he’s under criminal investigation, won’t bow to Trump intimidation
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/12/fed-jerome-powell-criminal-probe-nyt.html
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htm
powell video statement
I get the whole "spot is worth more" BS, but that aint backwardation. Thats like trying to draw a trend with only 2 points....doesnt work and isnt accurate.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Finally strength among the weak.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
you're arguing with the cme
they are the futures exchange
Not arguing with anyone. Not arguing at all. Their "definition" only applies to futures vs physical spot. That is not backwardation in the view of traders or managers.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
i'm sticking with the cme
Gold $4601 was hit today. We have crossed $84 on silver.
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CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
That is your will. However, the markets dont care about spot vs the front month contact. Its good content for newsletters and vloggers, but traders/managers dont care. And its the traders/managers that make markets, not vloggers.
This isnt much different than those who kept saying we were in a recession in 2022 because GDP met the "definition". Folk argued about that too, and now we realize there was no recession.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Platinum was back up strong to $2,370 as I am writing. Checked with APMEX what they pay for graded proof platinum eagles 69 or 70 and was offered $2155 or $215 under spot just now. Their lowest selling price is $2,755 or $385 above spot for a spread of $600 per ounce!
Should have just been buying and selling PPLT.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Why would you say that, are you a trader? Since most futures contracts close out for cash and not physical delivery, I would think short traders do care when spot is higher then future months contracts.
I don't disagree with you; but, think of the fun you had collecting those PF changing reverses.
By the way, MONEX is quoting $2,515 ASK / $2.392 BID for MS in units of 10.
Demand for gold has changed, look at the price.
Supply and demand for silver has changed, look at the price.
When gold and silver move together, it signals the coming end of fiat money.
i'll take change in fed independence for +5
It would have to make the Dollar much less desirable to the rest of the World.