If I was going to bet OKC I'd throw a block of 3 bets connecting to these winning margin scores
Very interesting board. Took me a few seconds to understand it, but then realizing you'd have to get the "final" score exactly in those specific parameters. If it goes over or under, ya lose.
The 21+ looking good right now, OKC up by 33, still some game left to play, midway thru the third quarter.
That 17-20 at +750 sure looks juicy if OKC lets up a bit, and the Suns can make enough cheap buckets late in the game.
I had an opportunity to cash out my NBA parlay at $163 early in the Lakers game. I thought about it all the way down to $100, and then still even as it dropped past $75. I stood pat and rode it all the way down to zero. I was credited a $100 no sweat bet for my loss, so I'll see what I can manufacture out of that.
@countdouglas said:
I had an opportunity to cash out my NBA parlay at $163 early in the Lakers game. I thought about it all the way down to $100, and then still even as it dropped past $75. I stood pat and rode it all the way down to zero. I was credited a $100 no sweat bet for my loss, so I'll see what I can manufacture out of that.
Those cash outs are a good option but it's literally a gamble in of itself
I've missed out on some pretty good cash outs in hopes for my bet to come through and it didn't, but what's worse is when you cash out early then your original bet hits and you lost out on a bigger profit.
Been there done that on both but it's still a good option
With Polymarket now technically as a competitor, I would expect to see the bookies increase their various comps, rewards, bonuses, etc.
Also I did read a while back that DraftKings was going to get involved in the "prediction" market, to directly compete with Polymarket. How that will affect DK's website platform, I have no idea? Will they offer two sets of bets for one wagering option? IE say on a touchdown prop, will they offer the usual bookie odds and possibly "prediction" odds as well? We shall see.
@stevek said:
With Polymarket now technically as a competitor, I would expect to see the bookies increase their various comps, rewards, bonuses, etc.
Also I did read a while back that DraftKings was going to get involved in the "prediction" market, to directly compete with Polymarket. How that will affect DK's website platform, I have no idea? Will they offer two sets of bets for one wagering option? IE say on a touchdown prop, will they offer the usual bookie odds and possibly "prediction" odds as well? We shall see.
The thing about Draft Kings is they own the state of NH, the entire state is stuck with them, I don't know about other states but ones that own the rights to it probably don't have to do much to compete
@stevek said:
With Polymarket now technically as a competitor, I would expect to see the bookies increase their various comps, rewards, bonuses, etc.
Also I did read a while back that DraftKings was going to get involved in the "prediction" market, to directly compete with Polymarket. How that will affect DK's website platform, I have no idea? Will they offer two sets of bets for one wagering option? IE say on a touchdown prop, will they offer the usual bookie odds and possibly "prediction" odds as well? We shall see.
The thing about Draft Kings is they own the state of NH, the entire state is stuck with them, I don't know about other states but ones that own the rights to it probably don't have to do much to compete
But with Polymarket, it's an entirely new situation, versus bookies competing against other bookies. My guess is that DK will begin offering their goodies in all their various states. Regardless if they "own" a particular state or not. Me being a long time businessman, this would seem to be the logical conclusion.
Of course "logic" doesn't always apply in some situations. Take Sears for example. They were dominant in their industry. Then the internet came along, and I guess the naive board of directors figured the internet wouldn't affect them? Well Sears stock price tumbled and is now close to worthless. Last time I checked a few years ago, they only had 6 stores remaining nationwide.
I just can't envision an aggressive company like DK making a similar mistake, and ignoring Polymarket, even in a situation such as NH. In my opinion, I think you'll begin to see an increase in the quantity and amount of those bonuses.
Of course what you could do is open up an account with Polymarket, and check out the differences. Your action is pretty good throughout the year. Plus you have extensive knowledge of certain sports and teams. Grabbing an extra few percent or more on some bets has to help. And of course getting an extra point or two on a game could mean the difference between a bad beat or a nice score.
Keep in mind though, I'm not sure if Polymarket offers bonusses or not? Perhaps the odds on a specific bet might be better on Polymarket, but then ya gotta factor in that a Polymarket bet of course isn't going to help gain bonuses on DK. To do it right, might seem a bit complex at times.
Sure the recreational bettor wagering a few dollars, just fooling around, figuring they're gonna probably lose no matter what they do, isn't going to care much about all this. However anyone serious about possibly making money at sports betting, in order to extract maximum value, making the right choices could result in huge monetary differences over time, even on one large bet.
guys there is a compelling contest taking place in a couple of days. OKC plays San Antonio in the NBA cup semis. nothing needs to be said about the Thunder -- someone without a pulse knows how good they are. but the Spurs are a stellar team in their own right. last night i watched them dismantle Luka, LeBron and the Lakers...........and that was without Wemby, who has been sidelined with an injury for the past couple of weeks. rumor has it he may play on Saturday. i'll definitely be glued either way. if he walks onto the court, it could potentially be loss #2 for OKC. potentially. POTENTIALLY. potentially. pOtEnTiAlLy. the line hasn't come out at my book, but i googled and it currently sits at -10.5. i would get me some of that. if Wemby plays it will shrink, and i'd still get me some of that. i may even toss some on the Spurs ML (all depends on how much i drink). the Thunder just......can't......keep.....winning.....every......single......game.....and......blowing.....out......the......opposition......in......the......process.
can they?
if the Spurs lose by 25 i'm going to rent a uhaul, move to the stamps forum and talk to myself
@galaxy27 said:
guys there is a compelling contest taking place in a couple of days. OKC plays San Antonio in the NBA cup semis. nothing needs to be said about the Thunder -- someone without a pulse knows how good they are. but the Spurs are a stellar team in their own right. last night i watched them dismantle Luka, LeBron and the Lakers...........and that was without Wemby, who has been sidelined with an injury for the past couple of weeks. rumor has it he may play on Saturday. i'll definitely be glued either way. if he walks onto the court, it could potentially be loss #2 for OKC. potentially. POTENTIALLY. potentially. pOtEnTiAlLy. the line hasn't come out at my book, but i googled and it currently sits at -10.5. i would get me some of that. if Wemby plays it will shrink, and i'd still get me some of that. i may even toss some on the Spurs ML (all depends on how much i drink). the Thunder just......can't......keep.....winning.....every......single......game.....and......blowing.....out......the......opposition......in......the......process.
can they?
if the Spurs lose by 25 i'm going to rent a uhaul, move to the stamps forum and talk to myself
@galaxy27 said:
guys there is a compelling contest taking place in a couple of days. OKC plays San Antonio in the NBA cup semis. nothing needs to be said about the Thunder -- someone without a pulse knows how good they are. but the Spurs are a stellar team in their own right. last night i watched them dismantle Luka, LeBron and the Lakers...........and that was without Wemby, who has been sidelined with an injury for the past couple of weeks. rumor has it he may play on Saturday. i'll definitely be glued either way. if he walks onto the court, it could potentially be loss #2 for OKC. potentially. POTENTIALLY. potentially. pOtEnTiAlLy. the line hasn't come out at my book, but i googled and it currently sits at -10.5. i would get me some of that. if Wemby plays it will shrink, and i'd still get me some of that. i may even toss some on the Spurs ML (all depends on how much i drink). the Thunder just......can't......keep.....winning.....every......single......game.....and......blowing.....out......the......opposition......in......the......process.
can they?
if the Spurs lose by 25 i'm going to rent a uhaul, move to the stamps forum and talk to myself
My two cents, and I doubt that it's worth two mils. Wemby coming back may, and I do mean "may" in the purest form of uncertainty, inspire OKC to play better than they have been, and that's a scary thought.
I'm not knocking your reasoning at all, and it definitely has merit. Of course there's always various degrees of uncertainty in any game. That being said, for my money, taking into account what you stated and what I stated, there's just too much uncertainty there for me to make a wager.
Good luck whatever you decide to do, and we all hope it works out well for ya. However for me, I'm gonna pass on the game. If you bet it, I'll simply root for our friend Galaxy to make a nice score.
i'm always open to other opinions and viewpoints. in fact, i welcome them on this thread; i wish there were more. and i especially welcome them when mine are consistently off target, which has been the case recently.
betting against the Thunder is scary. they have an extra gear i've never witnessed before. a month or so ago i took the Jazz +14.5 against them and I believe Utah was up 7 or 8 in the middle of the 3rd quarter. OKC won that game by 30+ points. last night they disfigured Phoenix by 49. they are a different breed, so your assessment may very well be on point @stevek
but there are fundamental rules governing the likelihood of events, and the part of my brain that focuses on that tells me that they're not going to slaughter every team in their path on their way to an 81-1 record this season. i've been looking at their schedule attempting to locate a team that will fight them viciously. don't even need that team to win necessarily (if i take the spread), just avoid getting your asses kicked all over the place like so many OKC opponents have thus far.
one such team, i believe, is San Antonio. they have shown me a lot in Wemby's absence, and especially so last night against the Lakers. they have a lot of young talent, and i can envision a day when they'll usurp the top spot from OKC.
really hope Wemby plays on Sat. i'm dying to see where they stack up at full force against the irrepressible Thunder at this point in time. and yes, i'm going to put my faith in them. not a huge amount, but there will be a wager or two.
@galaxy27 said:
i'm always open to other opinions and viewpoints. in fact, i welcome them on this thread; i wish there were more. and i especially welcome them when mine are consistently off target, which has been the case recently.
betting against the Thunder is scary. they have an extra gear i've never witnessed before. a month or so ago i took the Jazz +14.5 against them and I believe Utah was up 7 or 8 in the middle of the 3rd quarter. OKC won that game by 30+ points. last night they disfigured Phoenix by 49. they are a different breed, so your assessment may very well be on point @stevek
but there are fundamental rules governing the likelihood of events, and the part of my brain that focuses on that tells me that they're not going to slaughter every team in their path on their way to an 81-1 record this season. i've been looking at their schedule attempting to locate a team that will fight them viciously. don't even need that team to win necessarily (if i take the spread), just avoid getting your asses kicked all over the place like so many OKC opponents have thus far.
one such team, i believe, is San Antonio. they have shown me a lot in Wemby's absence, and especially so last night against the Lakers. they have a lot of young talent, and i can envision a day when they'll usurp the top spot from OKC.
really hope Wemby plays on Sat. i'm dying to see where they stack up at full force against the irrepressible Thunder at this point in time. and yes, i'm going to put my faith in them. not a huge amount, but there will be a wager or two.
and there will be a u-haul in my driveway.
Despite their 24-1 record, I just looked, their record against the spread is only 14-11. That stat didn't surprise me, as I already knew a number of their games were close ATS, one way or the other.
I'll disagree with ya slightly on this point, and I've thought about it a few times over the past few weeks. I think the next time OKC gets beat, will be at home versus a lousy team. Say a Sunday game, when the OKC players were in their homes for a few days, comfortable with their families, enjoying perhaps too much food and drink, and not worried about it because they "knew" they were gonna beat a lousy team on Sunday.
They then fall behind early in the game, and they're still not worried. They know they're much better than this bottom tier team, and that they'll just step-up and blow past them sometime during the game. However this time, their bodies don't respond as before, and those shots that used to easily swish, suddenly start bouncing off the rim, and a shocker loss occurs.
All that being said, if I found a quarter on a supermarket parking lot, I still wouldn't bet it on the event possibly happening that I just mentioned. Sort of like reading about how Mantle hit some of his home runs when he was stone cold hung over. The entire OKC team might be hung over going into that Sunday game, and still win anyway, they are that scary good.
For sure though, you've got the right idea, about one day of course OKC will lose. And a ML bet against them will be a nice score. If it's a lousy team that wins, it would be a very nice score indeed.
The only thing I needed was for Chris Godwin to get 25 yards receiving
He got 20 so missed a big payout by 5 yards
Would have cashed for $1300, didn't happen
every time you post one of these close calls it feels like someone kicked me in the crotch
i don't even experience that sensation when i set fire to my own money
@stevek said:
Brutal - 5 dam yards for a 65-1 score.
I'm literally numb to it at this point
It's like the 4th time this season I've 1 leg missed on a 1000+ payout
It's actually just silly
Ya'd think/hope it would even out eventually.
Admittedly, since football season began, including basketball season, I had I think it was 9 straight overtime losers. Most of them were favorites going into the game. Some were double digit favorites. The odds of that are staggeringly unlucky. I was pulling my hair out, what little hair I have left.
Fortunately the last three OT games, I won. So I guess that nasty streak is evening out somewhat. Still a long way to go on it though. I wanna see at least 4 or 5 straight more OT wins before I stop being hissed off about it. LOL
Received this offer today.
.
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So decided to take some free money and not even break a sweat. I'm either winning $310 or $295.45 tomorrow, no matter what.
.
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I think you said that you were a new online player? Not sure if that 300% profit boost is because of that, or something mentioned earlier in this thread. That with Polymarket now being a competitor in the marketplace, the bookies were likely going to increase the amount and frequency of their comps. Perhaps that 300% is a combination of both.
In any event, when those profit boosts are offered, ya gotta take it, especially a fat 300%. Even if ya don't see any game that you particularly like, just make a random bet because the odds are in your favor on that bet. IE, don't let those profit boosts expire.
Yea I realize that's easy to do when running hot or even. But even if running cold, ya still gotta take those profit boosts. That is if ya wish to have any chance of making money at sports betting in the long run.
usually when i say something, i do it. but because i've been taking it on the chin lately, i'm tapping the brakes when i normally wouldn't. i've seen this line go from -10 to -9 to -9.5 to -11 currently. the volatility is centered around Wemby's availability tonight. i'm not sure what i'm going to do tonight, if anything. i may end up just enjoying the game. what a novel idea, eh? can't lose any money if you don't place a bet, amirite?
wagering aside, i hope he plays. even in a restricted capacity. as i said previously, i'm dying to see how SAS stacks up against OKC. btw in a scheduling quirk for the ages, these teams play each other 3 times in the next 12 days...........all on different courts.
who am i kidding? of course i'm going to drop on this game. i've done a lot of reading and this is not the popular play. i'm standing on tracks with this one. if i get flattened, i won't step in front of the OKC train again
@galaxy27 said:
who am i kidding? of course i'm going to drop on this game. i've done a lot of reading and this is not the popular play. i'm standing on tracks with this one. if i get flattened, i won't step in front of the OKC train again
-5447.91
I keep reading this ridiculous stuff on Wemby being "Tired" gimme a break when I was in my 20's I never got tired but I could see them limiting his minutes but +11 is a sound play
you as well bro! no one -- and i mean no one -- is predicting an upset. and perhaps 1-2 people out of 10 are picking the Spurs to cover. i don't have a fav NBA team, per se, but if i did it would be San Antonio because of Wemby. i watch a lot of their games and am very familiar with the team. in my opinion, they're 1-2 years away from making life hell for OKC. but at the present time, they're looking up at them. it's going to be a great litmus test tonight.
Interesting prop on Wemby O/U points at 17.5
He's been averaging 26.2
Not sure precisely how the game injury thing works? IE, if Wemby reinjures early in the game, I think in the first quarter, certain books will refund the prop bets on him.
So many interesting possibilities in play here. For example his defense? Will his "limited minutes" and perhaps his decreased ability to play defense, result in increased scoring by the OKC players he guards?
I'm thinking about maybe some "over" props on one or two OKC players. I'll have to get out my Tandy computer, do the Einsteinian calculations, and try to figure it out. LOL
i don't know if you guys are aware of how SGA got to OKC in the first place, but if not, here it is. back in 2019 they pilfered the pop tarts out of the Clippers in a blockbuster trade. imagine a team giving you the MVP and receiving a bevy of first-round picks for a guy who didn't produce a championship and isn't even on the roster anymore (Paul George).
so you are reading this correctly: perhaps the greatest teams of all time has mega draft capital awaiting them next year. in addition to a swap with LA that's going to result in a lottery pick because the Clips absolutely suck this year, they also have Utah's 1R pick, they have Philly's, and they a second-rounder from Dallas/Philly. in a loaded draft class, mind you. you can't make this stuff up. if OKC was a hurricane they'd be a Cat 10 with 500-mph sustained winds.
I'm not as good on basketball lines as I am on football lines. But the +11 seems to me to be about the right line on a neutral court, even if Wemby was at full speed.
Remember neither team is close to Las Vegas, in which a team close to Vegas might make it sort of like a home game. Both teams home court is over 1,000 miles from Vegas. So the fan percentage at this game in theory should be about equal.
Win or lose, in my opinion, for a variety of reasons, I think the +11 ATS on the Spurs is a decent wager. Just a guess, I think Wemby is likely to play more minutes than expected. The question is his efficiency? If he plays well, that +11 could be gold. If he doesn't, that +11 might turn into pyrite.
Last comment - I sincerely doubt that the Spurs staff would let Wemby play tonight if he wasn't basically at 100% as far as the injury. The guy is just way too valuable to fool around with reinjury, especially this early in the season.
Just took a quick glance at Polymarket. They don't offer spreads since they're not a bookie. Only win-lose between teams. That's my understanding, and I may be incorrect about that.
Right now:
OKC at bet 82 cents to win a dollar total, 18 cents profit
Spurs at bet 19 cents to win a dollar total, 81 cents profit
One bookie website:
OKC at bet 100 cents total, to make 18 cents profit
Spurs at bet 19 cents total, to make 80 cents profit
Not sure if the I think it's 5% Polymarket grabs on each bet, is already included in that profit, or deducted from that profit. I think it's deducted, but not sure.
Notice the large contrast between Polymarket and the bookie, on the amount needed to bet, to win the 18 cents on OKC.
Bottom line - a small bettor probably isn't going to care. However a large bettor, it would be foolish not to check the odds and choose the best odds, than leave good money on the table after a win.
Crazy how streaks in this chit works. I mentioned before that I lost 9 straight OT games. Then hit 3 straight. Just hit 4 straight as SE Louisiana just won in OT.
I guess it does even out eventually but it's tough not to get hissed off when you're in the moment. The interesting thing is last season, a full season of NFL and NCAA football. Plus almost a full season of NBA and NCAA basketball, I have played around the same amount of games each week. However last season I think I was only involved in three, maybe four OT games total. And now this season it's thirteen already. Very weird, but who ever said sports betting wasn't? LOL
Interesting prop on Wemby O/U points at 17.5
He's been averaging 26.2
Not sure precisely how the game injury thing works? IE, if Wemby reinjures early in the game, I think in the first quarter, certain books will refund the prop bets on him.
So many interesting possibilities in play here. For example his defense? Will his "limited minutes" and perhaps his decreased ability to play defense, result in increased scoring by the OKC players he guards?
I'm thinking about maybe some "over" props on one or two OKC players. I'll have to get out my Tandy computer, do the Einsteinian calculations, and try to figure it out. LOL
The injury thing at least on Draft Kings is called "Early Exit" but the player has to. leave in the first half of an NBA or NFL game to qualify
Even if a player puts one toe on the floor or field in the 3rd then goes out then that cancels the early exit out
Interesting prop on Wemby O/U points at 17.5
He's been averaging 26.2
Not sure precisely how the game injury thing works? IE, if Wemby reinjures early in the game, I think in the first quarter, certain books will refund the prop bets on him.
So many interesting possibilities in play here. For example his defense? Will his "limited minutes" and perhaps his decreased ability to play defense, result in increased scoring by the OKC players he guards?
I'm thinking about maybe some "over" props on one or two OKC players. I'll have to get out my Tandy computer, do the Einsteinian calculations, and try to figure it out. LOL
The injury thing at least on Draft Kings is called "Early Exit" but the player has to. leave in the first half of an NBA or NFL game to qualify
Even if a player puts one toe on the floor or field in the 3rd then goes out then that cancels the early exit out
Looks like we all did pretty good in that OKC game.
Could have been better for me. I handicapped the Wemby points prop correctly, but didn't have the stones to play it. Little bit of too much uncertainty, but of course that can sometimes lead to some good money. Oh well.
Comments
If I was going to bet OKC I'd throw a block of 3 bets connecting to these winning margin scores
i think a player will turn the ball over 3 times on the same play before the Thunder will lose again
Very interesting board. Took me a few seconds to understand it, but then realizing you'd have to get the "final" score exactly in those specific parameters. If it goes over or under, ya lose.
The 21+ looking good right now, OKC up by 33, still some game left to play, midway thru the third quarter.
That 17-20 at +750 sure looks juicy if OKC lets up a bit, and the Suns can make enough cheap buckets late in the game.
I had an opportunity to cash out my NBA parlay at $163 early in the Lakers game. I thought about it all the way down to $100, and then still even as it dropped past $75. I stood pat and rode it all the way down to zero. I was credited a $100 no sweat bet for my loss, so I'll see what I can manufacture out of that.
Those cash outs are a good option but it's literally a gamble in of itself
I've missed out on some pretty good cash outs in hopes for my bet to come through and it didn't, but what's worse is when you cash out early then your original bet hits and you lost out on a bigger profit.
Been there done that on both but it's still a good option
This appears to be a pretty sweet offer. $500 in bonus bets for $500 in cash action, independent of whether you win or lose the cash bets.
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With Polymarket now technically as a competitor, I would expect to see the bookies increase their various comps, rewards, bonuses, etc.
Also I did read a while back that DraftKings was going to get involved in the "prediction" market, to directly compete with Polymarket. How that will affect DK's website platform, I have no idea? Will they offer two sets of bets for one wagering option? IE say on a touchdown prop, will they offer the usual bookie odds and possibly "prediction" odds as well? We shall see.
The thing about Draft Kings is they own the state of NH, the entire state is stuck with them, I don't know about other states but ones that own the rights to it probably don't have to do much to compete
But with Polymarket, it's an entirely new situation, versus bookies competing against other bookies. My guess is that DK will begin offering their goodies in all their various states. Regardless if they "own" a particular state or not. Me being a long time businessman, this would seem to be the logical conclusion.
Of course "logic" doesn't always apply in some situations. Take Sears for example. They were dominant in their industry. Then the internet came along, and I guess the naive board of directors figured the internet wouldn't affect them? Well Sears stock price tumbled and is now close to worthless. Last time I checked a few years ago, they only had 6 stores remaining nationwide.
I just can't envision an aggressive company like DK making a similar mistake, and ignoring Polymarket, even in a situation such as NH. In my opinion, I think you'll begin to see an increase in the quantity and amount of those bonuses.
Of course what you could do is open up an account with Polymarket, and check out the differences. Your action is pretty good throughout the year. Plus you have extensive knowledge of certain sports and teams. Grabbing an extra few percent or more on some bets has to help. And of course getting an extra point or two on a game could mean the difference between a bad beat or a nice score.
Keep in mind though, I'm not sure if Polymarket offers bonusses or not? Perhaps the odds on a specific bet might be better on Polymarket, but then ya gotta factor in that a Polymarket bet of course isn't going to help gain bonuses on DK. To do it right, might seem a bit complex at times.
Sure the recreational bettor wagering a few dollars, just fooling around, figuring they're gonna probably lose no matter what they do, isn't going to care much about all this. However anyone serious about possibly making money at sports betting, in order to extract maximum value, making the right choices could result in huge monetary differences over time, even on one large bet.
guys there is a compelling contest taking place in a couple of days. OKC plays San Antonio in the NBA cup semis. nothing needs to be said about the Thunder -- someone without a pulse knows how good they are. but the Spurs are a stellar team in their own right. last night i watched them dismantle Luka, LeBron and the Lakers...........and that was without Wemby, who has been sidelined with an injury for the past couple of weeks. rumor has it he may play on Saturday. i'll definitely be glued either way. if he walks onto the court, it could potentially be loss #2 for OKC. potentially. POTENTIALLY. potentially. pOtEnTiAlLy. the line hasn't come out at my book, but i googled and it currently sits at -10.5. i would get me some of that. if Wemby plays it will shrink, and i'd still get me some of that. i may even toss some on the Spurs ML (all depends on how much i drink). the Thunder just......can't......keep.....winning.....every......single......game.....and......blowing.....out......the......opposition......in......the......process.
can they?
if the Spurs lose by 25 i'm going to rent a uhaul, move to the stamps forum and talk to myself
Nice info, I will look at that for sure!
I laughed ugly when I read that last sentence
My two cents, and I doubt that it's worth two mils. Wemby coming back may, and I do mean "may" in the purest form of uncertainty, inspire OKC to play better than they have been, and that's a scary thought.
I'm not knocking your reasoning at all, and it definitely has merit. Of course there's always various degrees of uncertainty in any game. That being said, for my money, taking into account what you stated and what I stated, there's just too much uncertainty there for me to make a wager.
Good luck whatever you decide to do, and we all hope it works out well for ya. However for me, I'm gonna pass on the game. If you bet it, I'll simply root for our friend Galaxy to make a nice score.
i'm always open to other opinions and viewpoints. in fact, i welcome them on this thread; i wish there were more. and i especially welcome them when mine are consistently off target, which has been the case recently.
betting against the Thunder is scary. they have an extra gear i've never witnessed before. a month or so ago i took the Jazz +14.5 against them and I believe Utah was up 7 or 8 in the middle of the 3rd quarter. OKC won that game by 30+ points. last night they disfigured Phoenix by 49. they are a different breed, so your assessment may very well be on point @stevek
but there are fundamental rules governing the likelihood of events, and the part of my brain that focuses on that tells me that they're not going to slaughter every team in their path on their way to an 81-1 record this season. i've been looking at their schedule attempting to locate a team that will fight them viciously. don't even need that team to win necessarily (if i take the spread), just avoid getting your asses kicked all over the place like so many OKC opponents have thus far.
one such team, i believe, is San Antonio. they have shown me a lot in Wemby's absence, and especially so last night against the Lakers. they have a lot of young talent, and i can envision a day when they'll usurp the top spot from OKC.
really hope Wemby plays on Sat. i'm dying to see where they stack up at full force against the irrepressible Thunder at this point in time. and yes, i'm going to put my faith in them. not a huge amount, but there will be a wager or two.
and there will be a u-haul in my driveway.
Despite their 24-1 record, I just looked, their record against the spread is only 14-11. That stat didn't surprise me, as I already knew a number of their games were close ATS, one way or the other.
I'll disagree with ya slightly on this point, and I've thought about it a few times over the past few weeks. I think the next time OKC gets beat, will be at home versus a lousy team. Say a Sunday game, when the OKC players were in their homes for a few days, comfortable with their families, enjoying perhaps too much food and drink, and not worried about it because they "knew" they were gonna beat a lousy team on Sunday.
They then fall behind early in the game, and they're still not worried. They know they're much better than this bottom tier team, and that they'll just step-up and blow past them sometime during the game. However this time, their bodies don't respond as before, and those shots that used to easily swish, suddenly start bouncing off the rim, and a shocker loss occurs.
All that being said, if I found a quarter on a supermarket parking lot, I still wouldn't bet it on the event possibly happening that I just mentioned. Sort of like reading about how Mantle hit some of his home runs when he was stone cold hung over. The entire OKC team might be hung over going into that Sunday game, and still win anyway, they are that scary good.
For sure though, you've got the right idea, about one day of course OKC will lose. And a ML bet against them will be a nice score. If it's a lousy team that wins, it would be a very nice score indeed.
Again, good luck however you decide.
This was cute.
The only thing I needed was for Chris Godwin to get 25 yards receiving
He got 20 so missed a big payout by 5 yards
Would have cashed for $1300, didn't happen
every time you post one of these close calls it feels like someone kicked me in the crotch
i don't even experience that sensation when i set fire to my own money
Brutal - 5 dam yards for a 65-1 score.
I'm literally numb to it at this point
It's like the 4th time this season I've 1 leg missed on a 1000+ payout
It's actually just silly
Ya'd think/hope it would even out eventually.
Admittedly, since football season began, including basketball season, I had I think it was 9 straight overtime losers. Most of them were favorites going into the game. Some were double digit favorites. The odds of that are staggeringly unlucky. I was pulling my hair out, what little hair I have left.
Fortunately the last three OT games, I won. So I guess that nasty streak is evening out somewhat. Still a long way to go on it though. I wanna see at least 4 or 5 straight more OT wins before I stop being hissed off about it. LOL
Another brutal bad beat. Sucks.
Received this offer today.
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So decided to take some free money and not even break a sweat. I'm either winning $310 or $295.45 tomorrow, no matter what.
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I think you said that you were a new online player? Not sure if that 300% profit boost is because of that, or something mentioned earlier in this thread. That with Polymarket now being a competitor in the marketplace, the bookies were likely going to increase the amount and frequency of their comps. Perhaps that 300% is a combination of both.
In any event, when those profit boosts are offered, ya gotta take it, especially a fat 300%. Even if ya don't see any game that you particularly like, just make a random bet because the odds are in your favor on that bet. IE, don't let those profit boosts expire.
Yea I realize that's easy to do when running hot or even. But even if running cold, ya still gotta take those profit boosts. That is if ya wish to have any chance of making money at sports betting in the long run.
"8 hours ago - Wembanyama (calf) is expected to play in Saturday's game against the Thunder, Shams Charania of ESPN reports."
I'm sure you already saw this. Interesting that the line moved to OKC -9.5 as I think you predicted would happen if Wemby was cleared to play.
The line just moved back to -10.5
All sorts of chit flying around. Such as yes, Wemby will be back, but playing "limited minutes."
usually when i say something, i do it. but because i've been taking it on the chin lately, i'm tapping the brakes when i normally wouldn't. i've seen this line go from -10 to -9 to -9.5 to -11 currently. the volatility is centered around Wemby's availability tonight. i'm not sure what i'm going to do tonight, if anything. i may end up just enjoying the game. what a novel idea, eh? can't lose any money if you don't place a bet, amirite?
wagering aside, i hope he plays. even in a restricted capacity. as i said previously, i'm dying to see how SAS stacks up against OKC. btw in a scheduling quirk for the ages, these teams play each other 3 times in the next 12 days...........all on different courts.
who am i kidding? of course i'm going to drop on this game. i've done a lot of reading and this is not the popular play. i'm standing on tracks with this one. if i get flattened, i won't step in front of the OKC train again
-5447.91
I keep reading this ridiculous stuff on Wemby being "Tired" gimme a break when I was in my 20's I never got tired but I could see them limiting his minutes but +11 is a sound play
I got 10.5 in a PRA parlay and took it
Hope you get it brother
@perkdog
you as well bro! no one -- and i mean no one -- is predicting an upset. and perhaps 1-2 people out of 10 are picking the Spurs to cover. i don't have a fav NBA team, per se, but if i did it would be San Antonio because of Wemby. i watch a lot of their games and am very familiar with the team. in my opinion, they're 1-2 years away from making life hell for OKC. but at the present time, they're looking up at them. it's going to be a great litmus test tonight.
Yea I just saw the -11
Interesting prop on Wemby O/U points at 17.5
He's been averaging 26.2
Not sure precisely how the game injury thing works? IE, if Wemby reinjures early in the game, I think in the first quarter, certain books will refund the prop bets on him.
So many interesting possibilities in play here. For example his defense? Will his "limited minutes" and perhaps his decreased ability to play defense, result in increased scoring by the OKC players he guards?
I'm thinking about maybe some "over" props on one or two OKC players. I'll have to get out my Tandy computer, do the Einsteinian calculations, and try to figure it out. LOL
I did see odds out there of -100000 that Galaxy was gonna bet the game. LOL
i don't know if you guys are aware of how SGA got to OKC in the first place, but if not, here it is. back in 2019 they pilfered the pop tarts out of the Clippers in a blockbuster trade. imagine a team giving you the MVP and receiving a bevy of first-round picks for a guy who didn't produce a championship and isn't even on the roster anymore (Paul George).
so you are reading this correctly: perhaps the greatest teams of all time has mega draft capital awaiting them next year. in addition to a swap with LA that's going to result in a lottery pick because the Clips absolutely suck this year, they also have Utah's 1R pick, they have Philly's, and they a second-rounder from Dallas/Philly. in a loaded draft class, mind you. you can't make this stuff up. if OKC was a hurricane they'd be a Cat 10 with 500-mph sustained winds.
I'm not as good on basketball lines as I am on football lines. But the +11 seems to me to be about the right line on a neutral court, even if Wemby was at full speed.
Remember neither team is close to Las Vegas, in which a team close to Vegas might make it sort of like a home game. Both teams home court is over 1,000 miles from Vegas. So the fan percentage at this game in theory should be about equal.
Win or lose, in my opinion, for a variety of reasons, I think the +11 ATS on the Spurs is a decent wager. Just a guess, I think Wemby is likely to play more minutes than expected. The question is his efficiency? If he plays well, that +11 could be gold. If he doesn't, that +11 might turn into pyrite.
Last comment - I sincerely doubt that the Spurs staff would let Wemby play tonight if he wasn't basically at 100% as far as the injury. The guy is just way too valuable to fool around with reinjury, especially this early in the season.
Just took a quick glance at Polymarket. They don't offer spreads since they're not a bookie. Only win-lose between teams. That's my understanding, and I may be incorrect about that.
Right now:
OKC at bet 82 cents to win a dollar total, 18 cents profit
Spurs at bet 19 cents to win a dollar total, 81 cents profit
One bookie website:
OKC at bet 100 cents total, to make 18 cents profit
Spurs at bet 19 cents total, to make 80 cents profit
Not sure if the I think it's 5% Polymarket grabs on each bet, is already included in that profit, or deducted from that profit. I think it's deducted, but not sure.
Notice the large contrast between Polymarket and the bookie, on the amount needed to bet, to win the 18 cents on OKC.
Bottom line - a small bettor probably isn't going to care. However a large bettor, it would be foolish not to check the odds and choose the best odds, than leave good money on the table after a win.
Crazy how streaks in this chit works. I mentioned before that I lost 9 straight OT games. Then hit 3 straight. Just hit 4 straight as SE Louisiana just won in OT.
I guess it does even out eventually but it's tough not to get hissed off when you're in the moment. The interesting thing is last season, a full season of NFL and NCAA football. Plus almost a full season of NBA and NCAA basketball, I have played around the same amount of games each week. However last season I think I was only involved in three, maybe four OT games total. And now this season it's thirteen already. Very weird, but who ever said sports betting wasn't? LOL
Chet Holmgren 5.5 rebounds
Isaiah Hartenstein 5.5 rebounds
Gilgeous-Alexander 23.5 points
the Spurs are a completely different team when Wemby is on the floor
when he's playing, they can hang
when he's not, they can't
based on what i've seen thus far, he's not going to play enough tonight
I just don't understand why he isn't playing more if he is healthy, the kid is 21 give me break
Close at the half anyways
The injury thing at least on Draft Kings is called "Early Exit" but the player has to. leave in the first half of an NBA or NFL game to qualify
Even if a player puts one toe on the floor or field in the 3rd then goes out then that cancels the early exit out
I'm watching the game stats on/off on the ESPN live website. I don't think Wemby played at all in the first quarter.
Halftime stats - 7 minutes, 5 points including a 3, and 5 rebounds, against the best team by far in the NBA. The guy is a machine.
Thanks, I didn't know it covered the first half.
Have ended my version of a gov't shutdown. Parlay of Bills/Green Bay.
Kid is playing a lot more than I suggested, good on him and looks like SA is gonna take it!!
Was surprised to see ML on a Spurs win low at 4-1.
Perkdog is the Wemby of parlays. 👍
The Spurs ML would have been a killer.
Looks like we all did pretty good in that OKC game.
Could have been better for me. I handicapped the Wemby points prop correctly, but didn't have the stones to play it. Little bit of too much uncertainty, but of course that can sometimes lead to some good money. Oh well.
Probably could add a $1000 to those winnings if it was Spurs ML lol