@asheland said:
that’s another thing, scrap silverware is coming in like crazy!
What's the silver content of silverware (forks, knives, etc.) ?
Indeed, usually Sterling 925–1000 purity. We do occasionally get coin silver, which is 90% pure like the coinage, and occasionally even some 800 fine Germany, etc. it all gets melted unfortunately…
@coastaljerseyguy said:
92.5 % silver, esp if the old stuff, better then our coins. My 90 year old Mom uses hers every day for regular use. Discarded most of the stainless when she last moved 10 years ago. When I visit & I look for a 'regular' spoon for my coffee, she always says use the sterling. It is kind of cool using the sterling and you bang on the coffee cup. Will inherit after she passes, but not sure I'd sell even if silver went to $100 oz. She got it as a wedding present 70 years ago.
All the silver wasn't sold in 1980 but most of the loosely held metal was. Tons of it survive but in aggregate it is almost insignificant relative the total amount of 90% coin. Don't forget some of it is heirloom quality or already in museum collections which also are insignificant compared to 90%.
Common sub-gem pre33 gold is already acceptable for gold stackers and enjoy the unlikely confiscation exemption. Only an OCD case demanding four nines would have an issue adding them to their accumulation. Refining to .9999 bars or rounds would be idiotic. They are of consistent value and, unlike silver, are not facing some industrial supply pressure.
@alefzero said:
Common sub-gem pre33 gold is already acceptable for gold stackers and enjoy the unlikely confiscation exemption. Only an ICD case demanding four nines would have an issue adding them to their accumulation. Refining to .9999 bars or rounds would be idiotic. They are of consistent value and, unlike silver, are not facing some industrial supply pressure.
Stickers aren't the same as institutions.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
@WCC said:
You're making my point. PCGS has graded about 1,200,000 Saints. NGC has graded about 1,100,000. That's >slightly more than 25,000 or 50,000, and there isn't any reason to believe there are anywhere near these numbers >of set collectors either. There likely aren't anywhere near 25,000 looking to buy each date in the series
I agree, but the bulk of those graded Saints are in a few of the super-commons like the 1924 and 1908 No Motto. More than half of those graded are in the 1924, 1908 NM, and 1927.
The fact that in a low-enough grade lots of other coins are available for spot gold or a nominal premium -- meaning that numismatic demand has been satiated -- shows that for SOME coins, if they get culled now, it could backfire down the line if demand for them were to pick up.
In fact, the 1915-S has just over 16,000 graded by PCGS and I bought a nice MS-63 OGH back at FUN 2020 for basically spot gold (~3% premium adjusting for the lower gold content). If you can buy lots of coins not among the most common.....at bullion plus a nominal premium...and in grades from AU-58 to the low-60's....that's not bad.
Shows you even if there are tens of thousands of Type or PT collectors...they run the gamut from folks happy with 1 or 2 coins to semi-Registry players...and thus there are lots of coins trading for bullion (in 58-63 grades) when there are 5,000 coins and up available to collectors and certainly when 10,000 - 15,000 exist.
None of the numbers you infer as low are actually low. 5,000 to 10,000+ isn't a low number for a collectible, not at this price point or anything like it. It's a still a mass-produced object. There are a low number of coins at 4-figure and higher prices with the demand you infer, but not for the coins you've been inferring in this entire thread.
Looking at the TPG populations and current prices, melting would have to be substantial on many dates (not a few) and grades to change the collectible value proposition noticeably, because the TPG counts even in the higher grades aren't actually low. You previously mentioned the 1928 in MS-65+ in another thread. The PCGS count is 574. That's not even close to low and it's not a condition census coin either.
The primary reason I see for your view is that you're just not familiar enough with other coinage you don't and never did collect.
@Cougar1978 said:
We discussed this in coin club meeting but many felt - The culls for sure for melting but nice slabbed material just keep marking them up higher as pop decreases.
Good luck with that
You're replying to someone who has an inflated opinion of the widgets he sells.
@WCC said:
The primary reason I see for your view is that you're just not familiar enough with other coinage you don't and >never did collect.
Maybe, I'll freely admit I'm not a follower of the coins you and others survey nor do I possess the depth of information and knowledge about them and their markets. I'm relatively limited and concentrate on a much narrower swathe of coins.
Still....I see the total number of collectors for quasi-bullion coins like Saints (plus others) expanding over time. A few of my collector friends who never invested in gold or Saints are now dabbling. No bigtime collectors but every little bit is a new buyer underneath.
These Fairmont infomericals -- cheesy to some of us -- are nonetheless getting traction. I've had a few people ask me about them. I didn't even know they watched CNBC or other biz channels.
@alefzero said:
Common sub-gem pre33 gold is already acceptable for gold stackers and enjoy the unlikely confiscation exemption.
You mean it's unlikely we'll have confiscation ?
I think he means that when FDR confiscated (stole) the gold in 1933 under threats of heavy fines and imprisonment, coin collector's gold coins were exempt from confiscation. Some are concerned that history may repeat itself.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
@alefzero said:
Common sub-gem pre33 gold is already acceptable for gold stackers and enjoy the unlikely confiscation exemption.
You mean it's unlikely we'll have confiscation ?
I think he means that when FDR confiscated (stole) the gold in 1933 under threats of heavy fines and imprisonment, coin collector's gold coins were exempt from confiscation. Some are concerned that history may repeat itself.
Even when gold is confiscated all you have to do is hurry up and buy more gold with the money they pay you for it. This won't be possible with silver because all the silver available in all the stores in the country is hardly a thimble full.
At $197 an ounce the adjustable silver coin calculator shows one 1964 Kennedy half worth $71.25. Not likely to happen but I really wasn't expecting silver to top $60 this year either.
At $197 an ounce the adjustable silver coin calculator shows one 1964 Kennedy half worth $71.25. Not likely to happen but I really wasn't expecting silver to top $60 this year either.
Jim
Collectors selling gold will tend to use some of the proceeds for better dates.
In the meantime the refineries will stay pretty busy melting lots of US silver and gold coins and anything else to create good delivery bars and products of many types.
When people want to sell they seek the highest price and at these new higher prices there are still a lot of sellers.
After comparing the pop reports & price guide, it appears that anything lower than the top 1000 saints are basically old bullion.
My guess is there are about 300 serious saint collectors that are at least trying to attempt a date set. (in the world)
Add to that about 300 in inventory held by dealers. (of each date & mm)
Add another 300 coins in dark places. (of each date & mm)
Voila!...The motivation to keep nearly 1000 1916-S saints from becoming...
dead saints.
BTW...I chose the 1916-S because nobody uses them in a type set.
The only people that have one are set collectors and dealers that want to sell to set collectors.
They aren't particularly rare but have a slight premium and they didn't make them in Philadelphia or Denver.
After the 1000 best examples, the price basically goes to melt.
Pretty much the same with every other Date/mm of which there are at least 1000 examples.
Very depressing
Had a conversation with a local dealer yesterday and he mentioned that CC $10 and $20 libs have not gone up much since the runup in gold. He's been buying them up for a few hundred dollars over melt.
Collector Over 100 Positive BST transactions buying and selling with 57 members and counting! instagram.com/klnumismatics
@ReadyFireAim said:
After comparing the pop reports & price guide, it appears that anything lower than the top 1000 saints are >basically old bullion. My guess is there are about 300 serious saint collectors that are at least trying to attempt a >date set. (in the world) add to that about 300 in inventory held by dealers. (of each date & mm)
Add another 300 coins in dark places. (of each date & mm)
Voila!...The motivation to keep nearly 1000 1916-S saints from becoming...
Good analysis and thought-provoking post, RFA.
The numbers I got from a few old CoinWeek/CoinWorld articles pre-Covid which had comments from Doug Winter align in direction with what you posted if not in degree:
REGISTRY PLAYERS: About 500 serious Registry players (I think this might be double that to 1,000 given heightened interest in collecting coins, Saints, etc.). Collectors with the financial ability to grab all or almost all of the Saints including doubling up with extra coins at various years/mintmarks.
TYPE COLLECTORS: About 25,000 Type collectors who include anybody from the person only interested in 1 or 2 Saints to those who will stack and/or do a partial-Registry collections just short of the really expensive coins. So anybody with 1-30 unique Saints plus dozens or hundreds more. Could be double or triple that 25K number as more collectors learn about Saints (like Yours Truly) and/or came into coins during Covid lockdowns.
INVESTOR CLASS: The folks who buy circulated and/or lower-graded MS coins as bullion substitutes. Including buyers from late night infomercials, you are talking a few hundred thousand buyers here.
WC and I disagree on how many are in the Investor Class, as when the population for a given coin in all grades exceeds the Registry & Type collector demand, the price has to gravitate towards the gold bullion price to attract this group. I think the approximate group totals for each pre-Covid cited by Doug Winter (500/25,000/200,000) are in the ballpark....but I think they might have increased as a result of Covid, the auction cites, growing knowledge (Redditt, forums like this, FB, etc.).
@Kliao said:
Had a conversation with a local dealer yesterday and he mentioned that CC $10 and $20 libs have not gone up >much since the runup in gold. He's been buying them up for a few hundred dollars over melt.
I would suspect they are common and/or circulated coins, right ?
@Kliao said:
Had a conversation with a local dealer yesterday and he mentioned that CC $10 and $20 libs have not gone up >much since the runup in gold. He's been buying them up for a few hundred dollars over melt.
I would suspect they are common and/or circulated coins, right ?
Yes, all common date CC $10 and $20 libs in XF-AU condition.
Collector Over 100 Positive BST transactions buying and selling with 57 members and counting! instagram.com/klnumismatics
Not gold related, but at 37:23 in the newest Greysheet podcast, @JohnF mentioned that bags of low grade Barber halves are being sent to the melting pot at the current silver price. The whole episode is worth a listen.
Comments
Indeed, usually Sterling 925–1000 purity. We do occasionally get coin silver, which is 90% pure like the coinage, and occasionally even some 800 fine Germany, etc. it all gets melted unfortunately…
My YouTube Channel
Knives are tricky. The usually the blades are stainless steel and the .925 sterling silver handles can be hollow or weighted.
The better brands of sterling silver are somewhat considered collectibles.
All the silver wasn't sold in 1980 but most of the loosely held metal was. Tons of it survive but in aggregate it is almost insignificant relative the total amount of 90% coin. Don't forget some of it is heirloom quality or already in museum collections which also are insignificant compared to 90%.
$50 in 1980 went somewhere.
$50 today nothing.
In this bull market -
Players are holding on to their nice slabbed stuff or pricing ahead of or at current mkt retail / CPG. Expect to pay the money.
No / don’t believe for the melting pot unless it’s a cull.
Common sub-gem pre33 gold is already acceptable for gold stackers and enjoy the unlikely confiscation exemption. Only an OCD case demanding four nines would have an issue adding them to their accumulation. Refining to .9999 bars or rounds would be idiotic. They are of consistent value and, unlike silver, are not facing some industrial supply pressure.
Stickers aren't the same as institutions.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
According to the inflation calculator $197 today
That would be the all-time high technically
My YouTube Channel
None of the numbers you infer as low are actually low. 5,000 to 10,000+ isn't a low number for a collectible, not at this price point or anything like it. It's a still a mass-produced object. There are a low number of coins at 4-figure and higher prices with the demand you infer, but not for the coins you've been inferring in this entire thread.
Looking at the TPG populations and current prices, melting would have to be substantial on many dates (not a few) and grades to change the collectible value proposition noticeably, because the TPG counts even in the higher grades aren't actually low. You previously mentioned the 1928 in MS-65+ in another thread. The PCGS count is 574. That's not even close to low and it's not a condition census coin either.
The primary reason I see for your view is that you're just not familiar enough with other coinage you don't and never did collect.
You're replying to someone who has an inflated opinion of the widgets he sells.
Maybe, I'll freely admit I'm not a follower of the coins you and others survey nor do I possess the depth of information and knowledge about them and their markets. I'm relatively limited and concentrate on a much narrower swathe of coins.
Still....I see the total number of collectors for quasi-bullion coins like Saints (plus others) expanding over time. A few of my collector friends who never invested in gold or Saints are now dabbling. No bigtime collectors but every little bit is a new buyer underneath.
These Fairmont infomericals -- cheesy to some of us -- are nonetheless getting traction. I've had a few people ask me about them. I didn't even know they watched CNBC or other biz channels.
You mean it's unlikely we'll have confiscation ?
I think he means that when FDR confiscated (stole) the gold in 1933 under threats of heavy fines and imprisonment, coin collector's gold coins were exempt from confiscation. Some are concerned that history may repeat itself.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Even when gold is confiscated all you have to do is hurry up and buy more gold with the money they pay you for it. This won't be possible with silver because all the silver available in all the stores in the country is hardly a thimble full.
At $197 an ounce the adjustable silver coin calculator shows one 1964 Kennedy half worth $71.25. Not likely to happen but I really wasn't expecting silver to top $60 this year either.
Jim
Collectors selling gold will tend to use some of the proceeds for better dates.
In the meantime the refineries will stay pretty busy melting lots of US silver and gold coins and anything else to create good delivery bars and products of many types.
When people want to sell they seek the highest price and at these new higher prices there are still a lot of sellers.
After comparing the pop reports & price guide, it appears that anything lower than the top 1000 saints are basically old bullion.
My guess is there are about 300 serious saint collectors that are at least trying to attempt a date set. (in the world)
Add to that about 300 in inventory held by dealers. (of each date & mm)
Add another 300 coins in dark places. (of each date & mm)
Voila!...The motivation to keep nearly 1000 1916-S saints from becoming...
dead saints.
BTW...I chose the 1916-S because nobody uses them in a type set.
The only people that have one are set collectors and dealers that want to sell to set collectors.
They aren't particularly rare but have a slight premium and they didn't make them in Philadelphia or Denver.
After the 1000 best examples, the price basically goes to melt.
Pretty much the same with every other Date/mm of which there are at least 1000 examples.
Very depressing
My Saint Set
Had a conversation with a local dealer yesterday and he mentioned that CC $10 and $20 libs have not gone up much since the runup in gold. He's been buying them up for a few hundred dollars over melt.
Collector
Over 100 Positive BST transactions buying and selling with 57 members and counting!
instagram.com/klnumismatics
Good analysis and thought-provoking post, RFA.
The numbers I got from a few old CoinWeek/CoinWorld articles pre-Covid which had comments from Doug Winter align in direction with what you posted if not in degree:
REGISTRY PLAYERS: About 500 serious Registry players (I think this might be double that to 1,000 given heightened interest in collecting coins, Saints, etc.). Collectors with the financial ability to grab all or almost all of the Saints including doubling up with extra coins at various years/mintmarks.
TYPE COLLECTORS: About 25,000 Type collectors who include anybody from the person only interested in 1 or 2 Saints to those who will stack and/or do a partial-Registry collections just short of the really expensive coins. So anybody with 1-30 unique Saints plus dozens or hundreds more. Could be double or triple that 25K number as more collectors learn about Saints (like Yours Truly) and/or came into coins during Covid lockdowns.
INVESTOR CLASS: The folks who buy circulated and/or lower-graded MS coins as bullion substitutes. Including buyers from late night infomercials, you are talking a few hundred thousand buyers here.
WC and I disagree on how many are in the Investor Class, as when the population for a given coin in all grades exceeds the Registry & Type collector demand, the price has to gravitate towards the gold bullion price to attract this group. I think the approximate group totals for each pre-Covid cited by Doug Winter (500/25,000/200,000) are in the ballpark....but I think they might have increased as a result of Covid, the auction cites, growing knowledge (Redditt, forums like this, FB, etc.).
I would suspect they are common and/or circulated coins, right ?
Yes, all common date CC $10 and $20 libs in XF-AU condition.
Collector
Over 100 Positive BST transactions buying and selling with 57 members and counting!
instagram.com/klnumismatics
Not gold related, but at 37:23 in the newest Greysheet podcast, @JohnF mentioned that bags of low grade Barber halves are being sent to the melting pot at the current silver price. The whole episode is worth a listen.
Nothing is as expensive as free money.