What is a PR65 1838-O half worth? Can’t remember the last gem example to sell. Well, historically near what a gem 1884 trade dollar has realized. And one of those sold recently for around $1M. So I’d assign a value of $800,000
@tradedollarnut said:
What is a PR65 1838-O half worth? Can’t remember the last gem example to sell. Well, historically near what a gem 1884 trade dollar has realized. And one of those sold recently for around $1M. So I’d assign a value of $800,000
😂😂😂 THIS is the logic that underpins high end coin valuations?!? Yikes
Imagine your reasoning being audited or you being deposed over this. It's such thin gruel.
@MasonG said:
The PCGS and CAC price guides appear to be free. How much do you suppose people would be willing to pay for a guide that's more accurate? Do you suppose there'd be enough people willing to pay that someone would consider investing the time and resources to create such a price guide?
Hi - Interesting point. I guess you are saying that price guides for collectors are free so you can't complain if there are errors or bad assumptions. These publishers of 3rd party price guides may not be willing to invest more money into the price guides. Personally, I think that all of the services that publish price guides try their absolute best to get prices right and their interest is to give collectors and others the best available information to make the proper decisions. I would like publishers to provide collectors more transparency into how prices are developed and when prices are changed to understand why.
@MasonG said:
The PCGS and CAC price guides appear to be free. How much do you suppose people would be willing to pay for a guide that's more accurate? Do you suppose there'd be enough people willing to pay that someone would consider investing the time and resources to create such a price guide?
Hi - Interesting point. I guess you are saying that price guides for collectors are free so you can't complain if there are errors or bad assumptions. These publishers of 3rd party price guides may not be willing to invest more money into the price guides. Personally, I think that all of the services that publish price guides try their absolute best to get prices right and their interest is to give collectors and others the best available information to make the proper decisions. I would like publishers to provide collectors more transparency into how prices are developed and when prices are changed to understand why.
I think GS/ @JohnF tries his absolute best to get pricing right. I've spoken with him and worked with him on trying to get pricing right for a very thinly traded type that I collect and he and his team were fantastic.
If you think PCGS is trying its absolute best to do ANYTHING right, particularly a free price guide, you haven't been paying attention.
@EastonCollection said:
Hi - Interesting point. I guess you are saying that price guides for collectors are free so you can't complain if there are errors or bad assumptions.
No, I'm not saying you can't complain.
@lermish said:
If you think PCGS is trying its absolute best to do ANYTHING right, particularly a free price guide, you haven't been paying attention.
I didn't say that, either. I did ask a couple of questions, though- does anybody have any thoughts on them:
How much do you suppose people would be willing to pay for a guide that's more accurate? Do you suppose there'd be enough people willing to pay that someone would consider investing the time and resources to create such a price guide?
@MasonG said:
The PCGS and CAC price guides appear to be free. How much do you suppose people would be willing to pay for a guide that's more accurate? Do you suppose there'd be enough people willing to pay that someone would consider investing the time and resources to create such a price guide?
Actually, Mark Ferguson was literally “A Man Ahead of His Time”. He did just as you suggest! Around 2016, he created and published monthly via subscription at a very reasonable price, a print “CAC Market Values”. He provided a somewhat narrow range for each entry, based on auction sales. I believe if there were no current/recent sales, he would look at recent sales of “similarly” valued dates. Yes, we could each do research and come up with similar results, but I found this to be a big time saver, and I subscribed right away. I even volunteered and wrote a few articles about collecting CAC stickered coins that he included. Each issue had a couple of interesting articles.
After a while, he also included a few values for plus grades, if he felt there was sufficient supporting data! Yes, he recognized that CAC says the CAC stickered plus coins are only solid at that whole grade, and they don’t say if it’s solid as a plus or not. But he also recognized “The Market” valued plus coins with stickers higher than whole grade coins with stickers.
As best as I recall, he ceased publication after three or four years, just shortly before the demand for CAC stickered coins grew significantly, like it is today. It has not always been this way. Years ago, the premium for CAC stickered coins over their non-stickered counterparts was not as great as it is today due to increased demand).
Steve
A day without fine wine and working on your coin collection is like a day without sunshine!!!
@Peasantry said:
😂😂😂 THIS is the logic that underpins high end coin valuations?!? Yikes
If you don't have past sales to look at and you want an estimate of value, what else would you propose?
@Peasantry said:
Imagine your reasoning being audited or you being deposed over this. It's such thin gruel.
What's wrong with his reasoning? If past sales data is not there, it's not there. How does just throwing up your hands over it solve the problem?
Look to GAAP principles, auditing, appraising industry, prediction models, finance, big data, etc and develop a defensible standard for valuations with data and a thought process for determining value when there's little to no data. Software. A model. Something tangible.
Do NOT apply the same terminology to things based off data and those based off conjecture.
The main issue with his reasoning is that it's his. Is it written down anywhere? Replicatable? Generally accepted? What frequency does he update his number? Who approves changes to his logic? Are those changes transparent to the users and released at the speed of relevance? Is his logic consistently applied?
Oh my god, dude -I’m simply giving you an example of how one might value a coin that hasn’t been sold in recent times. Gather those estimates and a reasonable price guide could be created.
Comments
What is a PR65 1838-O half worth? Can’t remember the last gem example to sell. Well, historically near what a gem 1884 trade dollar has realized. And one of those sold recently for around $1M. So I’d assign a value of $800,000
😂😂😂 THIS is the logic that underpins high end coin valuations?!? Yikes
Imagine your reasoning being audited or you being deposed over this. It's such thin gruel.
Yawn
If you don't have past sales to look at and you want an estimate of value, what else would you propose?
What's wrong with his reasoning? If past sales data is not there, it's not there. How does just throwing up your hands over it solve the problem?
Hi - Interesting point. I guess you are saying that price guides for collectors are free so you can't complain if there are errors or bad assumptions. These publishers of 3rd party price guides may not be willing to invest more money into the price guides. Personally, I think that all of the services that publish price guides try their absolute best to get prices right and their interest is to give collectors and others the best available information to make the proper decisions. I would like publishers to provide collectors more transparency into how prices are developed and when prices are changed to understand why.
I think GS/ @JohnF tries his absolute best to get pricing right. I've spoken with him and worked with him on trying to get pricing right for a very thinly traded type that I collect and he and his team were fantastic.
If you think PCGS is trying its absolute best to do ANYTHING right, particularly a free price guide, you haven't been paying attention.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
No, I'm not saying you can't complain.
I didn't say that, either. I did ask a couple of questions, though- does anybody have any thoughts on them:
How much do you suppose people would be willing to pay for a guide that's more accurate? Do you suppose there'd be enough people willing to pay that someone would consider investing the time and resources to create such a price guide?
Actually, Mark Ferguson was literally “A Man Ahead of His Time”. He did just as you suggest! Around 2016, he created and published monthly via subscription at a very reasonable price, a print “CAC Market Values”. He provided a somewhat narrow range for each entry, based on auction sales. I believe if there were no current/recent sales, he would look at recent sales of “similarly” valued dates. Yes, we could each do research and come up with similar results, but I found this to be a big time saver, and I subscribed right away. I even volunteered and wrote a few articles about collecting CAC stickered coins that he included. Each issue had a couple of interesting articles.
After a while, he also included a few values for plus grades, if he felt there was sufficient supporting data! Yes, he recognized that CAC says the CAC stickered plus coins are only solid at that whole grade, and they don’t say if it’s solid as a plus or not. But he also recognized “The Market” valued plus coins with stickers higher than whole grade coins with stickers.
As best as I recall, he ceased publication after three or four years, just shortly before the demand for CAC stickered coins grew significantly, like it is today. It has not always been this way. Years ago, the premium for CAC stickered coins over their non-stickered counterparts was not as great as it is today due to increased demand).
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Look to GAAP principles, auditing, appraising industry, prediction models, finance, big data, etc and develop a defensible standard for valuations with data and a thought process for determining value when there's little to no data. Software. A model. Something tangible.
Do NOT apply the same terminology to things based off data and those based off conjecture.
The main issue with his reasoning is that it's his. Is it written down anywhere? Replicatable? Generally accepted? What frequency does he update his number? Who approves changes to his logic? Are those changes transparent to the users and released at the speed of relevance? Is his logic consistently applied?
Oh my god, dude -I’m simply giving you an example of how one might value a coin that hasn’t been sold in recent times. Gather those estimates and a reasonable price guide could be created.