@BLUEJAYWAY said:
I see the tease is out on my Toronto WS bet. Down 0-2. Now 2-2.
Craziest MLB playoffs I can recall. It's like the home team favorites are losing much more than they're winning. Which is why I think the action went so heavy late on the Brewers in yesterday's game. I don't think it was the Big Boys doing that, just a lot of regular players following the trend. Well sometimes following the herd can take ya right off a cliff.
As we know, "trends" like this can sometimes stop on a dime. Of course the Blue Jays are right back in the thick of it, and are actually road favorites in the 6:00 game.
Anything can happen in MLB, but I just can't see the Dodgers not wrapping it up tonight. Dodgers nice and relaxed, and eager to end this series, might be spraying the baseball all over the place. Not sure or not if the Dodgers can get 8 runs, so also need the Brewers to fight back from getting swept and score some runs.
@stevek said:
Anything can happen in MLB, but I just can't see the Dodgers not wrapping it up tonight. Dodgers nice and relaxed, and eager to end this series, might be spraying the baseball all over the place. Not sure or not if the Dodgers can get 8 runs, so also need the Brewers to fight back from getting swept and score some runs.
Dodgers ML
O/U Over 7.5
I think it would be difficult for the Brewers to not plate a few runs, I. mean seriously
@bgr said:
Referred to as the "hot hand fallacy". Helpful in understanding how probability works when there are no professional gamblers around.
I always laugh at the term "Professional gamblers"
If you have a massive amount of money to keep on it like doubling up until you win them I guess you can be considered a professional or if your a math wiz and can figure out and run your own correct analytics program then maybe you could be considered a professional
I've yet to read about any normal person making a living off sports betting or casino gambling
@stevek said:
Anything can happen in MLB, but I just can't see the Dodgers not wrapping it up tonight. Dodgers nice and relaxed, and eager to end this series, might be spraying the baseball all over the place. Not sure or not if the Dodgers can get 8 runs, so also need the Brewers to fight back from getting swept and score some runs.
Dodgers ML
O/U Over 7.5
I think it would be difficult for the Brewers to not plate a few runs, I. mean seriously
I bet both teams 3 runs each in 7 innings
I agree with ya. I mean the Brewers know they are beat. They are all rich, and figure may as well go out in style for the season, and swing for the fences. They may connect on a few and I hope they do. Just not too many. LOL
@stevek said:
Anything can happen in MLB, but I just can't see the Dodgers not wrapping it up tonight. Dodgers nice and relaxed, and eager to end this series, might be spraying the baseball all over the place. Not sure or not if the Dodgers can get 8 runs, so also need the Brewers to fight back from getting swept and score some runs.
Dodgers ML
O/U Over 7.5
I think it would be difficult for the Brewers to not plate a few runs, I. mean seriously
I bet both teams 3 runs each in 7 innings
I agree with ya. I mean the Brewers know they are beat. They are all rich, and figure may as well go out in style for the season, and swing for the fences. They may connect on a few and I hope they do. Just not too many. LOL
They're a young team. I would like to see them take one win away from this series to build on, but I have little hope for them. There are a few guys on the Brewers who are auditioning for jobs and some looking to cement their status on the MLB roster so I wouldn't say they're all playing for nothing - on the Brewers.
@bgr said:
Referred to as the "hot hand fallacy". Helpful in understanding how probability works when there are no professional gamblers around.
I always laugh at the term "Professional gamblers"
If you have a massive amount of money to keep on it like doubling up until you win them I guess you can be considered a professional or if your a math wiz and can figure out and run your own correct analytics program then maybe you could be considered a professional
I've yet to read about any normal person making a living off sports betting or casino gambling
I have read, which seemed to be reliable sources, IE it wasn't some website or individual trying to sell something or attempting to sign-up players to their affiliate commission program. They stated that they know of sports bettors who were beating the books with specific types of action.
For example let's say a player was killing basketball for large stakes. The websites of course don't like losing money. They will rarely bar a legit player, but say for this player, they might cap his basketball wagering at a low amount, or perhaps totally cut him off from betting basketball. Just one example, there could be endless other examples.
@bgr said:
Referred to as the "hot hand fallacy". Helpful in understanding how probability works when there are no professional gamblers around.
I always laugh at the term "Professional gamblers"
I mean it tongue in cheek.
If you have a massive amount of money to keep on it like doubling up until you win them I guess you can be considered a professional or if your a math wiz and can figure out and run your own correct analytics program then maybe you could be considered a professional
I recall an example of a roulette wheel landing on black like 20 some times in a row in Monte Carlo. It's well known in mathematics and elsewhere I'm sure and it doubtfully news to this group. Imagine doubling 20 times in a row and losing and the guts that faith that near-term statistical distribution. I would die.
I've yet to read about any normal person making a living off sports betting or casino gambling
I half-listened to someone explaining arbitrage betting to me once. They were doing hundreds to thousands of bets a day at multiple books to squeeze the difference from one book to the next. It wasn't that lucrative but it was passive. It's the same idea behind the market makers in equity markets. They had a day job so... there you go.
@bgr said:
Referred to as the "hot hand fallacy". Helpful in understanding how probability works when there are no professional gamblers around.
I always laugh at the term "Professional gamblers"
If you have a massive amount of money to keep on it like doubling up until you win them I guess you can be considered a professional or if your a math wiz and can figure out and run your own correct analytics program then maybe you could be considered a professional
I've yet to read about any normal person making a living off sports betting or casino gambling
I have read, which seemed to be reliable sources, IE it wasn't some website or individual trying to sell something or attempting to sign-up players to their affiliate commission program. They stated that they know of sports bettors who were beating the books with specific types of action.
For example let's say a player was killing basketball for large stakes. The websites of course don't like losing money. They will rarely bar a legit player, but say for this player, they might cap his basketball wagering at a low amount, or perhaps totally cut him off from betting basketball. Just one example, there could be endless other examples.
Probably true but I'm willing to bet that some random. crushing the book for big money consistently is on a lucky run and they want to disrupt that, same way casinos will switch dealers close a table or shut someone off
By buddy won $270.000 playing Blackjack at Encore Casino in Boston and they shut him off because he was too drunk and that is 100% legit
@bgr said:
Referred to as the "hot hand fallacy". Helpful in understanding how probability works when there are no professional gamblers around.
I always laugh at the term "Professional gamblers"
I mean it tongue in cheek.
If you have a massive amount of money to keep on it like doubling up until you win them I guess you can be considered a professional or if your a math wiz and can figure out and run your own correct analytics program then maybe you could be considered a professional
I recall an example of a roulette wheel landing on black like 20 some times in a row in Monte Carlo. It's well known in mathematics and elsewhere I'm sure and it doubtfully news to this group. Imagine doubling 20 times in a row and losing and the guts that faith that near-term statistical distribution. I would die.
I've yet to read about any normal person making a living off sports betting or casino gambling
I half-listened to someone explaining arbitrage betting to me once. They were doing hundreds to thousands of bets a day at multiple books to squeeze the difference from one book to the next. It wasn't that lucrative but it was passive. It's the same idea behind the market makers in equity markets. They had a day job so... there you go.
Yep, I wasn't referring to you for saying it, It just reminded me of the term. and my opinion of it,
@stevek said:
Anything can happen in MLB, but I just can't see the Dodgers not wrapping it up tonight. Dodgers nice and relaxed, and eager to end this series, might be spraying the baseball all over the place. Not sure or not if the Dodgers can get 8 runs, so also need the Brewers to fight back from getting swept and score some runs.
Dodgers ML
O/U Over 7.5
I think it would be difficult for the Brewers to not plate a few runs, I. mean seriously
I bet both teams 3 runs each in 7 innings
I agree with ya. I mean the Brewers know they are beat. They are all rich, and figure may as well go out in style for the season, and swing for the fences. They may connect on a few and I hope they do. Just not too many. LOL
They're a young team. I would like to see them take one win away from this series to build on, but I have little hope for them. There are a few guys on the Brewers who are auditioning for jobs and some looking to cement their status on the MLB roster so I wouldn't say they're all playing for nothing - on the Brewers.
Win or lose the series, the Brewers did themselves proud this season. No question about it.
The Brewers just ran into a tenacious team with tons of talent, stepping it up at the right time. Very tough to beat that combination, as the Phillies also found out.
@bgr said:
Referred to as the "hot hand fallacy". Helpful in understanding how probability works when there are no professional gamblers around.
I always laugh at the term "Professional gamblers"
I mean it tongue in cheek.
If you have a massive amount of money to keep on it like doubling up until you win them I guess you can be considered a professional or if your a math wiz and can figure out and run your own correct analytics program then maybe you could be considered a professional
I recall an example of a roulette wheel landing on black like 20 some times in a row in Monte Carlo. It's well known in mathematics and elsewhere I'm sure and it doubtfully news to this group. Imagine doubling 20 times in a row and losing and the guts that faith that near-term statistical distribution. I would die.
I've yet to read about any normal person making a living off sports betting or casino gambling
I half-listened to someone explaining arbitrage betting to me once. They were doing hundreds to thousands of bets a day at multiple books to squeeze the difference from one book to the next. It wasn't that lucrative but it was passive. It's the same idea behind the market makers in equity markets. They had a day job so... there you go.
John Scarne wrote in his famous book, that he was at a casino, when at a roulette table, it was either red or black, connected 17 straight times.
@bgr said:
Referred to as the "hot hand fallacy". Helpful in understanding how probability works when there are no professional gamblers around.
I always laugh at the term "Professional gamblers"
If you have a massive amount of money to keep on it like doubling up until you win them I guess you can be considered a professional or if your a math wiz and can figure out and run your own correct analytics program then maybe you could be considered a professional
I've yet to read about any normal person making a living off sports betting or casino gambling
I have read, which seemed to be reliable sources, IE it wasn't some website or individual trying to sell something or attempting to sign-up players to their affiliate commission program. They stated that they know of sports bettors who were beating the books with specific types of action.
For example let's say a player was killing basketball for large stakes. The websites of course don't like losing money. They will rarely bar a legit player, but say for this player, they might cap his basketball wagering at a low amount, or perhaps totally cut him off from betting basketball. Just one example, there could be endless other examples.
Probably true but I'm willing to bet that some random. crushing the book for big money consistently is on a lucky run and they want to disrupt that, same way casinos will switch dealers close a table or shut someone off
By buddy won $270.000 playing Blackjack at Encore Casino in Boston and they shut him off because he was too drunk and that is 100% legit
Not much of a college FB bettor. But have a feeling on the over in the BYU/Utah tilt. 49.5. At least the pick is not based on logic.😀 Probably won't get the bet in.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
This is the only college action for me today, I wasn't going to bet since I'm still BS about Oklahoma last saturday but my buddy was tailing this Green kid and put a lot of cash on him for yardage, he got plus money on 40 through 70 yards and cashed
I got in late and just threw a $20 for 75 yards and he got 74, my buddy hit for $900 on this kid.
Been a good Saturday, hit the casino for $300 and walked out so I'm chilling until tomorrow's action.
@stevek said:
I played the Rams ML, now up 21-0 in the third quarter.
But the way I've been losing bets in the fourth quarter, this bet is in deep trouble.
I haven't yet figured out which games they do the early victory for, or what the threshold is to declare the early victory, but ESPN BET has been paying me early on quite a few games this year. I believe the Dolphins 2 weeks ago are the only team that eventually ended up choking the lead away.
.
Came close to making a live bet on the Jags at +20.5 at the end of the third quarter. Maybe catch a win both ways. Rams just scored a TD. Glad I didn't do it.
Hard to believe a decent team like the Jags, have made this many mistakes in less than 15 minutes of football.
Chiefs and Bears have already paid out as winners. I don't know if it's every game on the schedule or just selected games. I should investigate more, but it wouldn't change my bet either way. As far as I know, I'm not activating an offer or receiving reduced odds for the early payout, it's just something that ESPN does when the score reaches a certain point. As I said earlier, the only time that I really benefited was 2 weeks ago when Miami lost a lead to Carolina, but I still got paid.
.
Comments
as long as you're taking into consideration batting average and will to win I think you're good boss.
I bet the Dodgers over 4.5 runs, I can't see the Dodgers losing at home
Looked good during the first inning but Crickets ever since
Well that was not fun, the Dodgers can only muster 3 runs
Milwaukee is actually funny with their 1 run, shoulda just took the Dodgers
Game 4:
Dodgers -187
Brewers +152
Dodgers series -3500
$100 bet wins $2.85
Fri night action
-3760.86
I might follow you on that play, looks solid brother
I see the tease is out on my Toronto WS bet. Down 0-2. Now 2-2.
Craziest MLB playoffs I can recall. It's like the home team favorites are losing much more than they're winning. Which is why I think the action went so heavy late on the Brewers in yesterday's game. I don't think it was the Big Boys doing that, just a lot of regular players following the trend. Well sometimes following the herd can take ya right off a cliff.
As we know, "trends" like this can sometimes stop on a dime. Of course the Blue Jays are right back in the thick of it, and are actually road favorites in the 6:00 game.
Anything can happen in MLB, but I just can't see the Dodgers not wrapping it up tonight. Dodgers nice and relaxed, and eager to end this series, might be spraying the baseball all over the place. Not sure or not if the Dodgers can get 8 runs, so also need the Brewers to fight back from getting swept and score some runs.
Dodgers ML
O/U Over 7.5
I think it would be difficult for the Brewers to not plate a few runs, I. mean seriously
I bet both teams 3 runs each in 7 innings
Referred to as the "hot hand fallacy". Helpful in understanding how probability works when there are no professional gamblers around.
I always laugh at the term "Professional gamblers"
If you have a massive amount of money to keep on it like doubling up until you win them I guess you can be considered a professional or if your a math wiz and can figure out and run your own correct analytics program then maybe you could be considered a professional
I've yet to read about any normal person making a living off sports betting or casino gambling
I agree with ya. I mean the Brewers know they are beat. They are all rich, and figure may as well go out in style for the season, and swing for the fences. They may connect on a few and I hope they do. Just not too many. LOL
They're a young team. I would like to see them take one win away from this series to build on, but I have little hope for them. There are a few guys on the Brewers who are auditioning for jobs and some looking to cement their status on the MLB roster so I wouldn't say they're all playing for nothing - on the Brewers.
I have read, which seemed to be reliable sources, IE it wasn't some website or individual trying to sell something or attempting to sign-up players to their affiliate commission program. They stated that they know of sports bettors who were beating the books with specific types of action.
For example let's say a player was killing basketball for large stakes. The websites of course don't like losing money. They will rarely bar a legit player, but say for this player, they might cap his basketball wagering at a low amount, or perhaps totally cut him off from betting basketball. Just one example, there could be endless other examples.
I mean it tongue in cheek.
I recall an example of a roulette wheel landing on black like 20 some times in a row in Monte Carlo. It's well known in mathematics and elsewhere I'm sure and it doubtfully news to this group. Imagine doubling 20 times in a row and losing and the guts that faith that near-term statistical distribution. I would die.
I half-listened to someone explaining arbitrage betting to me once. They were doing hundreds to thousands of bets a day at multiple books to squeeze the difference from one book to the next. It wasn't that lucrative but it was passive. It's the same idea behind the market makers in equity markets. They had a day job so... there you go.
Probably true but I'm willing to bet that some random. crushing the book for big money consistently is on a lucky run and they want to disrupt that, same way casinos will switch dealers close a table or shut someone off
By buddy won $270.000 playing Blackjack at Encore Casino in Boston and they shut him off because he was too drunk and that is 100% legit
Yep, I wasn't referring to you for saying it, It just reminded me of the term. and my opinion of it,
Win or lose the series, the Brewers did themselves proud this season. No question about it.
The Brewers just ran into a tenacious team with tons of talent, stepping it up at the right time. Very tough to beat that combination, as the Phillies also found out.
John Scarne wrote in his famous book, that he was at a casino, when at a roulette table, it was either red or black, connected 17 straight times.
Wow, what a dream score. 💲💲💲
Tennessee +8.5 is probably my only play today if I decide to bet College
Have 4 Parlays for the pros.
Not much of a college FB bettor. But have a feeling on the over in the BYU/Utah tilt. 49.5. At least the pick is not based on logic.😀 Probably won't get the bet in.
note to self: when Friday rolls around, don't bet, just drink
-3890.86
This is the only college action for me today, I wasn't going to bet since I'm still BS about Oklahoma last saturday but my buddy was tailing this Green kid and put a lot of cash on him for yardage, he got plus money on 40 through 70 yards and cashed
I got in late and just threw a $20 for 75 yards and he got 74, my buddy hit for $900 on this kid.
Been a good Saturday, hit the casino for $300 and walked out so I'm chilling until tomorrow's action.
Good luck today fellas
Auburn +1.5
Utah ML
-3772.92
Nice hit on the parlay.
I sent a letter out to every football league, college and pro, asking them to please end their games after three quarters, so I can win a bet.
Haven't heard back from any of them yet.
I played the Rams ML, now up 21-0 in the third quarter.
But the way I've been losing bets in the fourth quarter, this bet is in deep trouble.
That sure was one dam ugly third quarter of football. LOL
I haven't yet figured out which games they do the early victory for, or what the threshold is to declare the early victory, but ESPN BET has been paying me early on quite a few games this year. I believe the Dolphins 2 weeks ago are the only team that eventually ended up choking the lead away.
.
In the fourth quarter, Jags get three pick-6's to tie the game, and win it in overtime.
Came close to making a live bet on the Jags at +20.5 at the end of the third quarter. Maybe catch a win both ways. Rams just scored a TD. Glad I didn't do it.
Hard to believe a decent team like the Jags, have made this many mistakes in less than 15 minutes of football.
Jags though still capable of coming back and catching that +20.5. But I ain't touching anything else at this point.
Happy to start off the NFL today with a win, after a weak Saturday of college.
thanks bud. i should've lost it, but it offsets one i should've won.
good luck to all today
Dum-arze prop of the day:
Saints to win the first quarter +140
I think a tie would lose.
Caught my fingers in the cookie jar this AM
5 TD passes and he can't get 200 yards?
Chiefs and Bears have already paid out as winners. I don't know if it's every game on the schedule or just selected games. I should investigate more, but it wouldn't change my bet either way. As far as I know, I'm not activating an offer or receiving reduced odds for the early payout, it's just something that ESPN does when the score reaches a certain point. As I said earlier, the only time that I really benefited was 2 weeks ago when Miami lost a lead to Carolina, but I still got paid.
.
Davante Adams had his last pass thrown to him right in his lap. and of course it bounced right out, next play he makes a circus style catch look easy
Typical NFL BS
Browns light it up against Miami. Could not get a TD last week for my parlay.
Going to throw a 2 Seattle team parlay. Hawks,Mariners.
Panthers letting Jets hang around.
-3696.47
Catching the NASCAR Talladega race today. Hoping my plays, Bell,Blaney make the final 4. 1 wreck already,9 cars. Fortunately no one hurt.