It's not rocket science to understand what happens to the currency when the Fed pumps trillions into the bond market in order to keep the markets from imploding. You can't have it both ways, and you're gonna have to choose between your stocks and precious metals. Chickens don't count.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
It's not rocket science to understand what happens to the currency when the Fed pumps trillions into the bond market in order to keep the markets from imploding. You can't have it both ways, and you're gonna have to choose between your stocks and precious metals. Chickens don't count.
@dcarr said:
Sears Roebuck & Co. (removed from S&P 500 in 2012);
Radio Shack (removed from S&P 500 in 2011);
Lehman Brothers (removed from S&P 500 in 2008);
Enron (removed from S&P 500 in 2001).
Survivor bias is non-existent if you hold an index mutual fund or ETF. Nobody holds all 500 stocks except ETF participating broker dealers.
@dcarr said:
Sears Roebuck & Co. (removed from S&P 500 in 2012);
Radio Shack (removed from S&P 500 in 2011);
Lehman Brothers (removed from S&P 500 in 2008);
Enron (removed from S&P 500 in 2001).
Survivor bias is non-existent if you hold an index mutual fund or ETF. Nobody holds all 500 stocks except ETF participating broker dealers.
.
What if an entity were to sell short all the individual stocks in the S&P 500, and go long the index itself by an equal amount ?
When a particular stock is dropped from the S&P, the price of that stock will likely drop. After said drop, buy that stock to close out the short position in it. And when a new stock is added to the S&P, the price of that stock will often go up. After the initial increase, sell short that individual stock to keep everything balanced.
Is there a transaction or "finance" cost in holding a short position in a stock for an extended period of time ?
@jmski52 said:
It's not rocket science to understand what happens to the currency when the Fed pumps trillions into the bond market in order to keep the markets from imploding. You can't have it both ways, and you're gonna have to choose between your stocks and precious metals. Chickens don't count.
Sure they do and I own and will continue to own all of the above. It's called diversification and P.S. I sleep like a baby. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
@dcarr said:
Sears Roebuck & Co. (removed from S&P 500 in 2012);
Radio Shack (removed from S&P 500 in 2011);
Lehman Brothers (removed from S&P 500 in 2008);
Enron (removed from S&P 500 in 2001).
Survivor bias is non-existent if you hold an index mutual fund or ETF. Nobody holds all 500 stocks except ETF participating broker dealers.
.
Is there a transaction or "finance" cost in holding a short position in a stock for an extended period of time ?
.
Yes, when you short a stock you are "borrowing" it from someone else therefore you will have to pay the brokers margin rate. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
@jmski52 said:
It's not rocket science to understand what happens to the currency when the Fed pumps trillions into the bond market in order to keep the markets from imploding. You can't have it both ways, and you're gonna have to choose between your stocks and precious metals. Chickens don't count.
Your position might be proven correct in 50 or 500 years or never.
I suspect most Americans will take a steady, diversified 8-10% a year.
Premiums have really shrunk so you will need a much higher gold price for the OP to come to fruition.
Still.....some of you vets probably can remember when you had to goto the MS-67 or even MS-68 level (if available) to hit the $3,000 level for a common Saint !!
Well, I nailed the direction of gold nicely -- was even too conservative there -- but I totally misunderstood how premiums would act in the face of a rising gold price.
Kudos to the vets here like PeakR and MFeld for nailing the premiums vs. rising gold prices dichotomy. I never comprehended it because I hadn't seen it before first-hand and in the past anomalies caused the premiums to rise as gold made modest moves. A sustained, large, doubling of gold's price was something I didn't have experience tracking.
I guess we would need gold at about $3,800 or so to have an MS-65 common selling for $4K.
Before this cycle is over I'd expect the premiums in even MS66 Saints and MS65 $20 Libs to evaporate.
Maybe even MS67 generic date Saints too. The CAC sticker premium on 65 Saints will be pretty much history.
The lower end of the gold coin market has far outperformed the upper end. In fact plain old pre-1933 common circ $20's have been about the best performers in the gold (and rare coin) markets from 2002-2025......$300 to $3900......13X increase.
There will always be premiums, maybe somewhat flattened but people like aesthetic, beautiful historical coins rather that bullion. Maybe I'm governed too much by reason but the "investment" component is only a part of the picture. I was buying better date $20 Libs. back 25 or so years ago, and though many of them have at best doubled in Greysheet values compared to the rising price of gold, they are still in real demand.
@roadrunner said:
Before this cycle is over I'd expect the premiums in even MS66 Saints and MS65 $20 Libs to evaporate.
Maybe even MS67 generic date Saints too. The CAC sticker premium on 65 Saints will be pretty much history.
The lower end of the gold coin market has far outperformed the upper end. In fact plain old pre-1933 common circ $20's have been about the best performers in the gold (and rare coin) markets from 2002-2025......$300 to $3900......13X increase.
.
If it ever comes to pass that a true MS65 $20 Liberty could be purchased for "melt" value, I would certainly try to buy some (especially for any dates other than 1904).
If it ever comes to pass that a true MS65 $20 Liberty could be purchased for "melt" value, I would certainly try to buy some (especially for any dates other than 1904).
.
We're pretty close right now with MS65 $20 Libs selling at $4610 on the Heritage gold fax . Now if you mean a CAC example, that would be considerably higher. But, I think even those will get swallowed up within several years.
Recall back in the heat of the 2009-2011 gold run up that commoner date PCGS MS65 $20 Libs went from around $2800 to $4500/$4700. And despite gold more than doubling since 2011, the MS65 $20 generics are really no higher today. And meanwhile, Saints in VF to MS65 have compressed to within a $200 spread.
@roadrunner said:
Before this cycle is over I'd expect the premiums in even MS66 Saints and MS65 $20 Libs to evaporate.
Maybe even MS67 generic date Saints too. The CAC sticker premium on 65 Saints will be pretty much history.
The lower end of the gold coin market has far outperformed the upper end. In fact plain old pre-1933 common >circ $20's have been about the best performers in the gold (and rare coin) markets from 2002-2025......$300 to >$3900......13X increase.
I'm afraid that otherwise decent coins that were considered nice-to-own or had numismatic value in the past might now get melted down in some volume-buying of DEs and we lose a bit of history, RR.
@roadrunner said:
Recall back in the heat of the 2009-2011 gold run up that commoner date PCGS MS65 $20 Libs went from around >$2800 to $4500/$4700. And despite gold more than doubling since 2011, the MS65 $20 generics are really no >higher today. And meanwhile, Saints in VF to MS65 have compressed to within a $200 spread.
RR, gold went from about $900 to $1,800 peak in 2011. The average gold price in 2011 was about $1,550.
So....the premium on that Liberty DE you cite went from about 200% with gold at $900 ($2,800) to 190% ($4,500) with gold at $1,550. Seems like we are seeing more premium erosion todaywith a stronger gold move (up > 100% in 5 years) and the much larger dollar increase (~$2,300 today vs. $650 then).
@roadrunner said:
We're pretty close right now with MS65 $20 Libs selling at $4610 on the Heritage gold fax .
2 questions....what did generic MS-65 $20 Liberty Head DEs in the past command over gold the last few years as we were at $2,000 for most of that time....what percentage premium ?
Also, what is this Heritage Gold Fax (not email ?) -- I take it some daily or weekly price guide among insiders or dealers ?
Moderators, this thread was originally in the US COIN section...it really should be back there since it deals with premiums on numsimatic coins, not gold bullion. Thank You !!
Comments
It's not rocket science to understand what happens to the currency when the Fed pumps trillions into the bond market in order to keep the markets from imploding. You can't have it both ways, and you're gonna have to choose between your stocks and precious metals. Chickens don't count.
I knew it would happen.
Chickens may count more than you think.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Survivor bias is non-existent if you hold an index mutual fund or ETF. Nobody holds all 500 stocks except ETF participating broker dealers.
.
What if an entity were to sell short all the individual stocks in the S&P 500, and go long the index itself by an equal amount ?
When a particular stock is dropped from the S&P, the price of that stock will likely drop. After said drop, buy that stock to close out the short position in it. And when a new stock is added to the S&P, the price of that stock will often go up. After the initial increase, sell short that individual stock to keep everything balanced.
Is there a transaction or "finance" cost in holding a short position in a stock for an extended period of time ?
.
Sure they do and I own and will continue to own all of the above. It's called diversification and P.S. I sleep like a baby. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Yes, when you short a stock you are "borrowing" it from someone else therefore you will have to pay the brokers margin rate. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Your position might be proven correct in 50 or 500 years or never.
I suspect most Americans will take a steady, diversified 8-10% a year.
I suspect most Americans will take a steady, diversified 8-10% a year.
(While they are getting Weimar'ed.)
I knew it would happen.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Goldminers, as gold has risen premiums have shrunk. I think once gold stabilizes here or higher premiums will expand.
Still....imagine I had told you a year or more back that an MS-65 Saint would be $3,000 ??
BTW, I would bet that many or most of those 65's are all "C" coins and probably closer to MS-64's.
Premiums have really shrunk so you will need a much higher gold price for the OP to come to fruition.
Still.....some of you vets probably can remember when you had to goto the MS-67 or even MS-68 level (if available) to hit the $3,000 level for a common Saint !!
5 months later
Well, I nailed the direction of gold nicely -- was even too conservative there -- but I totally misunderstood how premiums would act in the face of a rising gold price.
Kudos to the vets here like PeakR and MFeld for nailing the premiums vs. rising gold prices dichotomy. I never comprehended it because I hadn't seen it before first-hand and in the past anomalies caused the premiums to rise as gold made modest moves. A sustained, large, doubling of gold's price was something I didn't have experience tracking.
I guess we would need gold at about $3,800 or so to have an MS-65 common selling for $4K.
I would guess with a single-digit premium we now are at that level...maybe somebody can confirm ?
Legend was offering $4050 for an 65CAC Saint this morning with spot right around $3825. 64CAC offered at melt.
What year for the Saint ? I'd look for a 1924.
Offering to buy at those prices.
Saints up to 64 literally being melted at this time.
My YouTube Channel
Before this cycle is over I'd expect the premiums in even MS66 Saints and MS65 $20 Libs to evaporate.
Maybe even MS67 generic date Saints too. The CAC sticker premium on 65 Saints will be pretty much history.
The lower end of the gold coin market has far outperformed the upper end. In fact plain old pre-1933 common circ $20's have been about the best performers in the gold (and rare coin) markets from 2002-2025......$300 to $3900......13X increase.
There will always be premiums, maybe somewhat flattened but people like aesthetic, beautiful historical coins rather that bullion. Maybe I'm governed too much by reason but the "investment" component is only a part of the picture. I was buying better date $20 Libs. back 25 or so years ago, and though many of them have at best doubled in Greysheet values compared to the rising price of gold, they are still in real demand.
.
If it ever comes to pass that a true MS65 $20 Liberty could be purchased for "melt" value, I would certainly try to buy some (especially for any dates other than 1904).
.
We're pretty close right now with MS65 $20 Libs selling at $4610 on the Heritage gold fax . Now if you mean a CAC example, that would be considerably higher. But, I think even those will get swallowed up within several years.
Recall back in the heat of the 2009-2011 gold run up that commoner date PCGS MS65 $20 Libs went from around $2800 to $4500/$4700. And despite gold more than doubling since 2011, the MS65 $20 generics are really no higher today. And meanwhile, Saints in VF to MS65 have compressed to within a $200 spread.
I'm afraid that otherwise decent coins that were considered nice-to-own or had numismatic value in the past might now get melted down in some volume-buying of DEs and we lose a bit of history, RR.
RR, gold went from about $900 to $1,800 peak in 2011. The average gold price in 2011 was about $1,550.
So....the premium on that Liberty DE you cite went from about 200% with gold at $900 ($2,800) to 190% ($4,500) with gold at $1,550. Seems like we are seeing more premium erosion todaywith a stronger gold move (up > 100% in 5 years) and the much larger dollar increase (~$2,300 today vs. $650 then).
2 questions....what did generic MS-65 $20 Liberty Head DEs in the past command over gold the last few years as we were at $2,000 for most of that time....what percentage premium ?
Also, what is this Heritage Gold Fax (not email ?) -- I take it some daily or weekly price guide among insiders or dealers ?
Moderators, this thread was originally in the US COIN section...it really should be back there since it deals with premiums on numsimatic coins, not gold bullion. Thank You !!