@WCC said:
I think gold is relatively overpriced, compared to other physical goods and probably many services. It's definitely >not cheap compared to other commodities, including silver.
The gold/silver ratio goes all over the place, tough to assign relative value to a couple of speculative PMs.
The gold/silver ratio is an excellent tool to know when to stop buy/start selling one of the metals and start buying/stop selling the other metal. Currently it is screaming "buy silver."
By this metric, it's been screaming buy silver for most of the last 4+ decades. The hugely inflated physical premiums make it uneconomical to do this in practice.
@MFeld said:
I call bologna on your prediction.
Even if gold were to hit your $3000 target, it’s extremely unlikely that MS65 Saints would approach $4000. In order for them to do so, they’d need to trade at an even higher premium to gold than they do now. And in general, the higher the price of gold, the lower the numismatic premium for gold coins.
Silver gave us a good lesson in 2023 on just how crazy premiums can get when threat of a shortage looms.
There was never a shortage, just a bunch of snake oil salesmen brainwashing you into the fairy tale that gutter metal was scarce. Why did premiums drop like a rock? It's not like the worlds gutter supply suddenly doubled. SMH!
"looms" indicates fear of potential shortage. Such fear drives demand. I never said there was a shortage, I used the word "threat."
Premiums dropped when the feared shortage never materialized.
One things for certain, there will NEVER be a shortage of gutter metal on this planet. Look for premiums and spot prices to drop even further. RGDS!
@WCC said:
I think gold is relatively overpriced, compared to other physical goods and probably many services. It's definitely >not cheap compared to other commodities, including silver.
The gold/silver ratio goes all over the place, tough to assign relative value to a couple of speculative PMs.
The gold/silver ratio is an excellent tool to know when to stop buy/start selling one of the metals and start buying/stop selling the other metal. Currently it is screaming "buy silver."
By this metric, it's been screaming buy silver for most of the last 4+ decades. The hugely inflated physical premiums make it uneconomical to do this in practice.
you might want to see the actual opportunities. I see at least 10 opportunities between 2003 and 2019 to buy silver and then profit with it.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
you might want to see the actual opportunities. I see at least 10 opportunities between 2003 and 2019 to buy silver and then profit with it.
Agree there are a few, the key word being a few. It's not that many buying physical due to the buy-sell spread.
Exactly, you have 3 round trip opportunities in 25 years playing the GGR with physical due to premiums and that's if you timed everything perfectly. Extremely poor way to go about an investment IMO. Much easier to do with the ETFs SLV/GLD etc. RGDS!
you might want to see the actual opportunities. I see at least 10 opportunities between 2003 and 2019 to buy silver and then profit with it.
Agree there are a few, the key word being a few. It's not that many buying physical due to the buy-sell spread.
Exactly, you have 3 round trip opportunities in 25 years playing the GGR with physical due to premiums and that's if you timed everything perfectly. Extremely poor way to go about an investment IMO. Much easier to do with the ETFs SLV/GLD etc. RGDS!
Using the GSR is an extremely good way for a stacker to grow his stack without any additional outlay of funds. When GSR is high he knows to covert his gold to silver and when GSR is low he knows to convert his silver back to gold. Each successful round trip will provide him with a greater number of ounces without further investment. He doesn't need to be exact on the peaks and lows. If he desires to also continue adding funds a high GSR high tells him to buy silver and when low it tells him to buy gold.
The GSR chart, when at its low of 32 in 2011, correctly told us to sell our silver at $45+, and to buy gold at $1050. What has happened to these prices since bears witness to the value of the GSR. Anyone who is correctly making their moves as GSR reaches for its next peak will once again be greatly rewarded.
Your dislike for silver is because you bought it, sat on it and expected a continued rise in price. As you have learned the hard way silver, unlike gold, is very volatile in price. It is this silver volatility that drives the movement in the GSR and provides great opportunity.
Whether you are a stacker or an investor, the GSR tells you where to put your money at the moment and when to get your profits back.
I strongly advocated a buy in silver on this forum before it's rise to $49 in 2011 and I strongly advised on focusing on American Silver Eagles before the peak in their premiums. I'm advising continued purchases in quality silver (or ETFs) and selling gold when given the opportunity, but only if the returns will be put back into silver.
And yes blitzboy, this all means the silver you paid too much for will soon bring you profit, but only if you didn't panic and sell it at a loss.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@blitzdude said:
There was never a shortage, just a bunch of snake oil salesmen brainwashing you into the fairy tale that gutter metal was scarce. Why did premiums drop like a rock? It's not like the worlds gutter supply suddenly doubled. SMH!
@derryb said:
"looms" indicates fear of potential shortage. Such fear drives demand. I never said there was a shortage, I used the word "threat."
Premiums dropped when the feared shortage never materialized.
I am going to disagree here on both fronts.
Premiums are now at what I would consider to be "normal" levels.
Gold and silver premiums shot up temporarily in conjunction with the pandemic and especially the failure of the two banks in 2023 (Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank). Buying of physical metals increased during that time. When both contagions (Corona Virus and bank troubles) faded out, buying slowed and some people sold what they had bought earlier. My local coin shop has more gold in inventory than they have had previously, and that is due to increased selling by the public. People sold because there has not been any more major bank failures, and because of the higher gold "spot" prices currently.
While premiums have come off their recent highs they are still not exactly back to "normal". At the wholesale level perhaps but certainly not at the retail level. THKS!
@derryb said:
The gold/silver ratio is an excellent tool to know when to stop buy/start selling one of the metals and start buying/stop selling the other metal. Currently it is screaming "buy silver."
But you can say it's been saying that for YEARS.
And I'm not going back decades to the old 16:1 ratio or 20:1 "revised" ratio.
@blitzdude said:
There was never a shortage, just a bunch of snake oil salesmen brainwashing you into the fairy tale that gutter metal was scarce. Why did premiums drop like a rock? It's not like the worlds gutter supply suddenly doubled. SMH!
If you could buy directly from the Mint -- or there were more Official Buyers -- those scarcity premiums fade away very quickly.
If more LCS's were able to buy direct, problem solved.
@derryb said:
The gold/silver ratio is an excellent tool to know when to stop buy/start selling one of the metals and start buying/stop selling the other metal. Currently it is screaming "buy silver."
But you can say it's been saying that for YEARS.
And I'm not going back decades to the old 16:1 ratio or 20:1 "revised" ratio.
My point is that is says buy and sell silver numerous times (numerous opportunities) because of the volatility in silver prices. Note the GSR chart confirms this.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@blitzdude said:
While premiums have come off their recent highs they are still not exactly back to "normal". At the wholesale level perhaps but certainly not at the retail level. THKS!
I haven't seen any articles on the silver ASE premium persistence -- anybody got anything ? -- but I would suspect it is dealers believing that newcomers and the public will flock to the ASEs if/when they buy silver and basically wanting to charge a premium for the convenience.
I guess ASE premiums in the past when silver was in the $20's were maybe $2 a coin, tops, for retail buyers ??
@blitzdude said:
While premiums have come off their recent highs they are still not exactly back to "normal". At the wholesale level perhaps but certainly not at the retail level. THKS!
I haven't seen any articles on the silver ASE premium persistence -- anybody got anything ? -- but I would suspect it is dealers believing that newcomers and the public will flock to the ASEs if/when they buy silver and basically wanting to charge a premium for the convenience.
I guess ASE premiums in the past when silver was in the $20's were maybe $2 a coin, tops, for retail buyers ??
The Authorized Purchasers are currently charged $2.35 per coin from the mint. I seem to remember $1.25 over in the early 2000's then a rise to $2 somewhere in the 2010-2020 decade. I remember regularly buying rolls at $2 over/ozt in the 2013-2018 timeframe from APMEX, MCM, and Bay Precious Metals on Ebay with 10% bonus ebux on top of it. Sure miss those days. Here's a link directly from the mint regarding current AP premiums:
Premiums and Minimums
Prices for American Eagles are based on the prevailing price of gold, silver, platinum, or palladium plus a modest premium to cover minting, distribution, and marketing costs. Prices change on a daily basis, as the gold, silver, platinum and palladium markets fluctuate.
American Eagle Silver Bullion
United States Mint Authorized Purchasers are charged the LBMA Silver Price plus a $2.35 per coin premium.
Minimum ordering requirement: 25,000 ounces
American Eagle Gold Bullion
United States Mint Authorized Purchasers are charged the LBMA PM Gold Price plus a percentage premium as follows:
1-ounce: 3%
1/2-ounce: 5%
1/4-ounce: 7%
1/10-ounce: 9%
Minimum ordering requirement: 1,000 ounces
Found some additional information regarding Mint premiums charged to the APs regarding gutter eagles:
Pre Oct 2008 $1.25
Oct 2008 $1.40
Feb 2009 $1.50
Oct. 2010 $2.00
Current $2.35
Interesting that for the better part of the 2010's I was buying at $2 over from big online bullion dealers on eBay no less. I know that demand was weak during that time frame but they had to be making a profit somehow.
Thanks guys.....so the allowable premium from the Mint to the dealers has gone up by $1 or so....but am I correct that the ASE premium to retail buyers went from like $3 to $6 (even more during Covid) per coin ?
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Thanks guys.....so the allowable premium from the Mint to the dealers has gone up by $1 or so....but am I correct that the ASE premium to retail buyers went from like $3 to $6 (even more during Covid) per coin ?
Yep, the sheep were paying more than that. I was selling local (craigslist) and moving some tubes at $10-$13 per oz over spot at the height of Covid. Retail is currently selling around $4.50 over when buying by the roll of 20. Still historically high premiums IMO. I'll continue to trade paper SLV until things get back to normal. RGDS!
@cohodk said:
Interesting how the narrative around premiums changes when the original narrative doesnt pan out.
Can you give us more color on that, Cohodk?
My narrative has not changed. Demand drives product premiums.
The more buyers want something, the more premium they will pay for it. Doesn't matter if it's a house, a car or a silver eagle. If only we could see unprecedented demand for silver futures contracts or good delivery bars.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@cohodk said:
Interesting how the narrative around premiums changes when the original narrative doesnt pan out.
Can you give us more color on that, Cohodk?
My narrative has not changed. Demand drives product premiums.
The more buyers want something, the more premium they will pay for it. Doesn't matter if it's a house, a car or a silver eagle. If only we could see unprecedented demand for silver futures contracts or good delivery bars.
Not much demand for the gutter metal and there never has been. Spot price and premium spikes throughout history have all been artificially manufactured by the manipulators. RGDS!
@PeakRarities said: @MFeld has a point about the premiums. Even right now, gold is up but the premiums are down and I'm buying >saints for the same prices as a couple of months ago.
PR, has the absolute or percentage premium you have seen/paid lately remained the same or what ?
@jmski52 said:
It's been true for a very long time that premiums (for non-rarities) shrink when the price of silver or gold spikes. Nothing new here.
So don't buy the shrink. Many ways to participate without the premium (er, dealer mark up).
.
But note that when "spot" price drops significantly, premiums often go up.
So this has the effect of insuring or cushioning against any potential loss.
In other words, physical metal prices are less volatile than "paper" derivatives.
@dcarr said:
But note that when "spot" price drops significantly, premiums often go up.
So this has the effect of insuring or cushioning against any potential loss.
In other words, physical metal prices are less volatile than "paper" derivatives.
@jmski52 said:
It's been true for a very long time that premiums (for non-rarities) shrink when the price of silver or gold spikes. Nothing new here.
So don't buy the shrink. Many ways to participate without the premium (er, dealer mark up).
.
But note that when "spot" price drops significantly, premiums often go up.
So this has the effect of insuring or cushioning against any potential loss.
In other words, physical metal prices are less volatile than "paper" derivatives.
.
Volatility means nothing over the long term. And, I believe, long term is what the PMers preach. No?
Volatility means nothing over the long term. And, I believe, long term is what the PMers preach. No?
It's the long term volatility that provides the long term profit opportunities.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Volatility means nothing over the long term. And, I believe, long term is what the PMers preach. No?
It's the long term volatility that provides the long term profit opportunities.
Agreed. When it drops 80-90% and sits stagnant for decades, as it has done in the past, it does afford one an opportunity. The question is, how many decades does one have?
@jmski52 said:
It's been true for a very long time that premiums (for non-rarities) shrink when the price of silver or gold spikes. Nothing new here.
So don't buy the shrink. Many ways to participate without the premium (er, dealer mark up).
.
But note that when "spot" price drops significantly, premiums often go up.
So this has the effect of insuring or cushioning against any potential loss.
In other words, physical metal prices are less volatile than "paper" derivatives.
.
Volatility means nothing over the long term. And, I believe, long term is what the PMers preach. No?
.
If you go into precious metals for the long term, you want to avoid paper instruments such as SLV (which has a negative premium to physical silver and goes 1/2% farther negative every year)
@dcarr said:
If you go into precious metals for the long term, you want to avoid paper instruments such as SLV (which has a negative premium to physical silver and goes 1/2% farther negative every year)
It must be using silver futures which are in backwardation (paying more for upfront contracts as you roll them over).
@derryb said:
It's the long term volatility that provides the long term profit opportunities.
For now, I see rising prices for gold (definitely) and silver (probably). But as "investments" I don't consider them that -- more like speculations.
They simply do poorly over multiple time periods because of that volatility...because they pay no interest or dividends....and this has been shown to be the case going back a century or decades.
@derryb said:
It's the long term volatility that provides the long term profit opportunities.
For now, I see rising prices for gold (definitely) and silver (probably). But as "investments" I don't consider them that -- more like speculations.
They simply do poorly over multiple time periods because of that volatility...because they pay no interest or dividends....and this has been shown to be the case going back a century or decades.
As real money, gold and silver are dollar protection. Note that, because of its silver content, a 1964 half dollar will buy three times the gasoline and twice the amount of bread that it would buy in 1964.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
As real money, gold and silver are dollar protection. Note that, because of its silver content, a 1964 half dollar will buy three times the gasoline and twice the amount of bread that it would buy in 1964.
Maybe, but $0.50 put into bonds would have bought 4x as much and the same amount into stocks would have bought over 50x as much.
You want dollar protection ? Common stocks are your BEST defense.
@derryb said:
It's the long term volatility that provides the long term profit opportunities.
For now, I see rising prices for gold (definitely) and silver (probably). But as "investments" I don't consider them that -- more like speculations.
They simply do poorly over multiple time periods because of that volatility...because they pay no interest or dividends....and this has been shown to be the case going back a century or decades.
As real money, gold and silver are dollar protection. Note that, because of its silver content, a 1964 half dollar will buy three times the gasoline and twice the amount of bread that it would buy in 1964.
What about all the 1964 halves you've been hoarding since 1980? LOL THKS!
@derryb said:
As real money, gold and silver are dollar protection. Note that, because of its silver content, a 1964 half dollar will buy three times the gasoline and twice the amount of bread that it would buy in 1964.
Maybe, but $0.50 put into bonds would have bought 4x as much and the same amount into stocks would have bought over 50x as much.
You want dollar protection ? Common stocks are your BEST defense.
Money held in any form of paper is temporary money. In an inflationary environment, most any real asset will provide dollar protection. And yes, I am well diversified in this sense. But since this is a PM forum I will focus on PMs. What is unique about holding a portion of your wealth in precious metals is that they are 100% in your possession, are not at the mercy of unpredictable market or central bank emotions, and are not a form of paper that can suddenly. . . be worthless.
So yes, inflation floats all boats. How long they can weather a storm and stay afloat is what matters. Super tanker or dingy, the choice is yours. Dingy works great as long as you can predict the weather.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
As real money, gold and silver are dollar protection. Note that, because of its silver content, a 1964 half dollar will buy three times the gasoline and twice the amount of bread that it would buy in 1964.
Maybe, but $0.50 put into bonds would have bought 4x as much and the same amount into stocks would have bought over 50x as much.
Put a new battery in your calculator. Stocks have gone up only 6.8 times their value in 1964 (SP 500 was at 850, 5,815 today). Didn't bother to check your bonds claim; assuming you used the same calculator.
If one had bought Blockbuster or Atari or numerous other eventual losers early and more importantly sold them at the right time then they too would have been money makers. But, since you missed the point, I'll repeat it: Paper money in any form is temporary, real money is not. I believe the coming market turmoil (from a heated election cycle) will clearly demonstrate this and the need to hold real dollar protection.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
As real money, gold and silver are dollar protection. Note that, because of its silver content, a 1964 half dollar will buy three times the gasoline and twice the amount of bread that it would buy in 1964.
Maybe, but $0.50 put into bonds would have bought 4x as much and the same amount into stocks would have bought over 50x as much.
Put a new battery in your calculator. Stocks have gone up only 6.8 times their value in 1964 (SP 500 was at 850, 5,815 today). Didn't bother to check your bonds claim; assuming you used the same calculator.
Ummm, derry, ummm, hate to tell ya, but, ummmm, the Sp500 was, ummm, 85.....in 1964.
@derryb said:
As real money, gold and silver are dollar protection. Note that, because of its silver content, a 1964 half dollar will buy three times the gasoline and twice the amount of bread that it would buy in 1964.
Maybe, but $0.50 put into bonds would have bought 4x as much and the same amount into stocks would have bought over 50x as much.
Put a new battery in your calculator. Stocks have gone up only 6.8 times their value in 1964 (SP 500 was at 850, 5,815 today). Didn't bother to check your bonds claim; assuming you used the same calculator.
Ummm, derry, ummm, hate to tell ya, but, ummmm, the Sp500 was, ummm, 85.....in 1964.
Nothing wrong with his calculator.
correct, the fault lies with me and my calculator.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
@derryb said:
Put a new battery in your calculator. Stocks have gone up only 6.8 times their value in 1964 (SP 500 was at 850, >5,815 today). Didn't bother to check your bonds claim; assuming you used the same calculator.
My batteries are fine, there's a thing called DIVIDENDS and REINVESTING which gives you COMPOUNDING.
Paper money is what we use in this country, not blocks of gold or silver or coins thereof.
I love paper money. I simply refuse to put blind faith into it.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Our selected officials---every single one of them---are hell bent on keeping it going, as they know to stop means deflation. And the billionaire influencers wouldn't be too happy with that.
@derryb said:
As real money, gold and silver are dollar protection. Note that, because of its silver content, a 1964 half dollar will buy three times the gasoline and twice the amount of bread that it would buy in 1964.
Maybe, but $0.50 put into bonds would have bought 4x as much and the same amount into stocks would have bought over 50x as much.
Put a new battery in your calculator. Stocks have gone up only 6.8 times their value in 1964 (SP 500 was at 850, 5,815 today). Didn't bother to check your bonds claim; assuming you used the same calculator.
Ummm, derry, ummm, hate to tell ya, but, ummmm, the Sp500 was, ummm, 85.....in 1964.
It is a false indicator.
Since companies are constantly dropped from the S&P 500 and replaced with new growing companies, of course the S&P will appear to outperform. One third of the companies in the S&P 500 in 2015 are not there now.
@derryb said:
As real money, gold and silver are dollar protection. Note that, because of its silver content, a 1964 half dollar will buy three times the gasoline and twice the amount of bread that it would buy in 1964.
Maybe, but $0.50 put into bonds would have bought 4x as much and the same amount into stocks would have bought over 50x as much.
Put a new battery in your calculator. Stocks have gone up only 6.8 times their value in 1964 (SP 500 was at 850, 5,815 today). Didn't bother to check your bonds claim; assuming you used the same calculator.
Ummm, derry, ummm, hate to tell ya, but, ummmm, the Sp500 was, ummm, 85.....in 1964.
It is a false indicator.
Since companies are constantly dropped from the S&P 500 and replaced with new growing companies, of course the S&P will appear to outperform. One third of the companies in the S&P 500 in 2015 are not there now.
@derryb said:
As real money, gold and silver are dollar protection. Note that, because of its silver content, a 1964 half dollar will buy three times the gasoline and twice the amount of bread that it would buy in 1964.
Maybe, but $0.50 put into bonds would have bought 4x as much and the same amount into stocks would have bought over 50x as much.
Put a new battery in your calculator. Stocks have gone up only 6.8 times their value in 1964 (SP 500 was at 850, 5,815 today). Didn't bother to check your bonds claim; assuming you used the same calculator.
Ummm, derry, ummm, hate to tell ya, but, ummmm, the Sp500 was, ummm, 85.....in 1964.
It is a false indicator.
Since companies are constantly dropped from the S&P 500 and replaced with new growing companies, of course the S&P will appear to outperform. One third of the companies in the S&P 500 in 2015 are not there now.
.
Damn innovation!!!
Lol
.
Do you tell your clients that if you buy stock in the companies that comprise the S&P 500, they will in the long run under-perform that theoretical index ?
A few examples:
Sears Roebuck & Co. (removed from S&P 500 in 2012);
Radio Shack (removed from S&P 500 in 2011);
Lehman Brothers (removed from S&P 500 in 2008);
Enron (removed from S&P 500 in 2001).
@derryb said:
As real money, gold and silver are dollar protection. Note that, because of its silver content, a 1964 half dollar will buy three times the gasoline and twice the amount of bread that it would buy in 1964.
Maybe, but $0.50 put into bonds would have bought 4x as much and the same amount into stocks would have bought over 50x as much.
Put a new battery in your calculator. Stocks have gone up only 6.8 times their value in 1964 (SP 500 was at 850, 5,815 today). Didn't bother to check your bonds claim; assuming you used the same calculator.
Ummm, derry, ummm, hate to tell ya, but, ummmm, the Sp500 was, ummm, 85.....in 1964.
It is a false indicator.
Since companies are constantly dropped from the S&P 500 and replaced with new growing companies, of course the S&P will appear to outperform. One third of the companies in the S&P 500 in 2015 are not there now.
.
Damn innovation!!!
Lol
.
Do you tell your clients that if you buy stock in the companies that comprise the S&P 500, they will in the long run under-perform that theoretical index ?
A few examples:
Sears Roebuck & Co. (removed from S&P 500 in 2012);
Radio Shack (removed from S&P 500 in 2011);
Lehman Brothers (removed from S&P 500 in 2008);
Enron (removed from S&P 500 in 2001).
.
Irrelevant. Just buy the index. It's not rocket science. Well, perhaps for a few it appears it is. RGDS!
Comments
By this metric, it's been screaming buy silver for most of the last 4+ decades. The hugely inflated physical premiums make it uneconomical to do this in practice.
One things for certain, there will NEVER be a shortage of gutter metal on this planet. Look for premiums and spot prices to drop even further. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
you might want to see the actual opportunities. I see at least 10 opportunities between 2003 and 2019 to buy silver and then profit with it.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Agree there are a few, the key word being a few. It's not that many buying physical due to the buy-sell spread.
Exactly, you have 3 round trip opportunities in 25 years playing the GGR with physical due to premiums and that's if you timed everything perfectly. Extremely poor way to go about an investment IMO. Much easier to do with the ETFs SLV/GLD etc. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Using the GSR is an extremely good way for a stacker to grow his stack without any additional outlay of funds. When GSR is high he knows to covert his gold to silver and when GSR is low he knows to convert his silver back to gold. Each successful round trip will provide him with a greater number of ounces without further investment. He doesn't need to be exact on the peaks and lows. If he desires to also continue adding funds a high GSR high tells him to buy silver and when low it tells him to buy gold.
The GSR chart, when at its low of 32 in 2011, correctly told us to sell our silver at $45+, and to buy gold at $1050. What has happened to these prices since bears witness to the value of the GSR. Anyone who is correctly making their moves as GSR reaches for its next peak will once again be greatly rewarded.
Your dislike for silver is because you bought it, sat on it and expected a continued rise in price. As you have learned the hard way silver, unlike gold, is very volatile in price. It is this silver volatility that drives the movement in the GSR and provides great opportunity.
Whether you are a stacker or an investor, the GSR tells you where to put your money at the moment and when to get your profits back.
A rise in silver lease rates (highest since 2008) Confirms what the GSR is currently telling us: silver is a screaming buy
I strongly advocated a buy in silver on this forum before it's rise to $49 in 2011 and I strongly advised on focusing on American Silver Eagles before the peak in their premiums. I'm advising continued purchases in quality silver (or ETFs) and selling gold when given the opportunity, but only if the returns will be put back into silver.
And yes blitzboy, this all means the silver you paid too much for will soon bring you profit, but only if you didn't panic and sell it at a loss.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I am going to disagree here on both fronts.
Premiums are now at what I would consider to be "normal" levels.
Gold and silver premiums shot up temporarily in conjunction with the pandemic and especially the failure of the two banks in 2023 (Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank). Buying of physical metals increased during that time. When both contagions (Corona Virus and bank troubles) faded out, buying slowed and some people sold what they had bought earlier. My local coin shop has more gold in inventory than they have had previously, and that is due to increased selling by the public. People sold because there has not been any more major bank failures, and because of the higher gold "spot" prices currently.
While premiums have come off their recent highs they are still not exactly back to "normal". At the wholesale level perhaps but certainly not at the retail level. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
But you can say it's been saying that for YEARS.
And I'm not going back decades to the old 16:1 ratio or 20:1 "revised" ratio.
If you could buy directly from the Mint -- or there were more Official Buyers -- those scarcity premiums fade away very quickly.
If more LCS's were able to buy direct, problem solved.
My point is that is says buy and sell silver numerous times (numerous opportunities) because of the volatility in silver prices. Note the GSR chart confirms this.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I haven't seen any articles on the silver ASE premium persistence -- anybody got anything ? -- but I would suspect it is dealers believing that newcomers and the public will flock to the ASEs if/when they buy silver and basically wanting to charge a premium for the convenience.
I guess ASE premiums in the past when silver was in the $20's were maybe $2 a coin, tops, for retail buyers ??
The Authorized Purchasers are currently charged $2.35 per coin from the mint. I seem to remember $1.25 over in the early 2000's then a rise to $2 somewhere in the 2010-2020 decade. I remember regularly buying rolls at $2 over/ozt in the 2013-2018 timeframe from APMEX, MCM, and Bay Precious Metals on Ebay with 10% bonus ebux on top of it. Sure miss those days. Here's a link directly from the mint regarding current AP premiums:
https://www.usmint.gov/news/consumer-alerts/business-guidelines/authorized-purchaser-program#:~:text=American Eagle Silver Bullion,a $2.35 per coin premium.
Premiums and Minimums
Prices for American Eagles are based on the prevailing price of gold, silver, platinum, or palladium plus a modest premium to cover minting, distribution, and marketing costs. Prices change on a daily basis, as the gold, silver, platinum and palladium markets fluctuate.
American Eagle Silver Bullion
United States Mint Authorized Purchasers are charged the LBMA Silver Price plus a $2.35 per coin premium.
Minimum ordering requirement: 25,000 ounces
American Eagle Gold Bullion
United States Mint Authorized Purchasers are charged the LBMA PM Gold Price plus a percentage premium as follows:
1-ounce: 3%
1/2-ounce: 5%
1/4-ounce: 7%
1/10-ounce: 9%
Minimum ordering requirement: 1,000 ounces
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Found some additional information regarding Mint premiums charged to the APs regarding gutter eagles:
Pre Oct 2008 $1.25
Oct 2008 $1.40
Feb 2009 $1.50
Oct. 2010 $2.00
Current $2.35
Interesting that for the better part of the 2010's I was buying at $2 over from big online bullion dealers on eBay no less. I know that demand was weak during that time frame but they had to be making a profit somehow.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Thanks guys.....so the allowable premium from the Mint to the dealers has gone up by $1 or so....but am I correct that the ASE premium to retail buyers went from like $3 to $6 (even more during Covid) per coin ?
Those minimums are very steep....you'd get more LCS involved if the minimum were say 100 coins and buyers covered shipping.
Yep, the sheep were paying more than that. I was selling local (craigslist) and moving some tubes at $10-$13 per oz over spot at the height of Covid. Retail is currently selling around $4.50 over when buying by the roll of 20. Still historically high premiums IMO. I'll continue to trade paper SLV until things get back to normal. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Interesting how the narrative around premiums changes when the original narrative doesnt pan out.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Can you give us more color on that, Cohodk?
My narrative has not changed. Demand drives product premiums.
The more buyers want something, the more premium they will pay for it. Doesn't matter if it's a house, a car or a silver eagle. If only we could see unprecedented demand for silver futures contracts or good delivery bars.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Not much demand for the gutter metal and there never has been. Spot price and premium spikes throughout history have all been artificially manufactured by the manipulators. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Not much demand for gold or silver. People are flocking to digital currency. Money is better spent feeding the hungry, not the war.
PR, has the absolute or percentage premium you have seen/paid lately remained the same or what ?
It's been true for a very long time that premiums (for non-rarities) shrink when the price of silver or gold spikes. Nothing new here.
I knew it would happen.
So don't buy the shrink. Many ways to participate without the premium (er, dealer mark up).
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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But note that when "spot" price drops significantly, premiums often go up.
So this has the effect of insuring or cushioning against any potential loss.
In other words, physical metal prices are less volatile than "paper" derivatives.
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Eventually, they converge.
Volatility means nothing over the long term. And, I believe, long term is what the PMers preach. No?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
It's the long term volatility that provides the long term profit opportunities.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Agreed. When it drops 80-90% and sits stagnant for decades, as it has done in the past, it does afford one an opportunity. The question is, how many decades does one have?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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If you go into precious metals for the long term, you want to avoid paper instruments such as SLV (which has a negative premium to physical silver and goes 1/2% farther negative every year)
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I believe, long term is what the PMers preach. No?
Somewhat, but the unreliability of the financial system is primary.
I knew it would happen.
It must be using silver futures which are in backwardation (paying more for upfront contracts as you roll them over).
For now, I see rising prices for gold (definitely) and silver (probably). But as "investments" I don't consider them that -- more like speculations.
They simply do poorly over multiple time periods because of that volatility...because they pay no interest or dividends....and this has been shown to be the case going back a century or decades.
As real money, gold and silver are dollar protection. Note that, because of its silver content, a 1964 half dollar will buy three times the gasoline and twice the amount of bread that it would buy in 1964.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Maybe, but $0.50 put into bonds would have bought 4x as much and the same amount into stocks would have bought over 50x as much.
You want dollar protection ? Common stocks are your BEST defense.
What about all the 1964 halves you've been hoarding since 1980? LOL THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Money held in any form of paper is temporary money. In an inflationary environment, most any real asset will provide dollar protection. And yes, I am well diversified in this sense. But since this is a PM forum I will focus on PMs. What is unique about holding a portion of your wealth in precious metals is that they are 100% in your possession, are not at the mercy of unpredictable market or central bank emotions, and are not a form of paper that can suddenly. . . be worthless.
So yes, inflation floats all boats. How long they can weather a storm and stay afloat is what matters. Super tanker or dingy, the choice is yours. Dingy works great as long as you can predict the weather.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Put a new battery in your calculator. Stocks have gone up only 6.8 times their value in 1964 (SP 500 was at 850, 5,815 today). Didn't bother to check your bonds claim; assuming you used the same calculator.
If one had bought Blockbuster or Atari or numerous other eventual losers early and more importantly sold them at the right time then they too would have been money makers. But, since you missed the point, I'll repeat it: Paper money in any form is temporary, real money is not. I believe the coming market turmoil (from a heated election cycle) will clearly demonstrate this and the need to hold real dollar protection.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Ummm, derry, ummm, hate to tell ya, but, ummmm, the Sp500 was, ummm, 85.....in 1964.
Nothing wrong with his calculator.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
correct, the fault lies with me and my calculator.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
My batteries are fine, there's a thing called DIVIDENDS and REINVESTING which gives you COMPOUNDING.
Paper money is what we use in this country, not blocks of gold or silver or coins thereof.
I love paper money. I simply refuse to put blind faith into it.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Our selected officials---every single one of them---are hell bent on keeping it going, as they know to stop means deflation. And the billionaire influencers wouldn't be too happy with that.
Cash is king, because they will fail.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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It is a false indicator.
Since companies are constantly dropped from the S&P 500 and replaced with new growing companies, of course the S&P will appear to outperform. One third of the companies in the S&P 500 in 2015 are not there now.
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Damn innovation!!!
Lol
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
"And I don't give a damn about a greenback dollar, spend it fast as I can"
"A wailing song, and a good guitar...........the only things that I understand ............oh yeah"
"......the only things that I understand............"
Kingston Trio, 1963
got PMs?
I knew it would happen.
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Do you tell your clients that if you buy stock in the companies that comprise the S&P 500, they will in the long run under-perform that theoretical index ?
A few examples:
Sears Roebuck & Co. (removed from S&P 500 in 2012);
Radio Shack (removed from S&P 500 in 2011);
Lehman Brothers (removed from S&P 500 in 2008);
Enron (removed from S&P 500 in 2001).
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You can spend the rest of your days in the poor house worrying about your SS COLA with the Kingston Trio. LOL THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Irrelevant. Just buy the index. It's not rocket science. Well, perhaps for a few it appears it is. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.