As of April 2022, when ESPN reporter Jeff Passan cited the statistic, eight position players had achieved a single-season WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 10 or higher. These players were Barry Bonds (five times), Mike Trout (twice), and Mookie Betts, Rickey Henderson, Joe Morgan, Buster Posey, Alex Rodriguez, and Cal Ripken Jr. (once each)
Aaron Judge has 2 since. Maybe others too?
Looks like there are 60 single seasons with 10 or more for position players in MLB history. BBRef WAR.
Part of it may be a discrepancy in how the calculation is made.
According to Baseball-Reference Bonds has only done it 3 times.
Henderson has never done it. He did have 2, 9.9 seasons.
Buster Posey has never done it. His best season was 7.6.
Ruth 7 times.
Mays 6 times.
Bonds 3 times.
Mantle 3 times.
Cobb 3 times.
7 players 2 times.
15 players 1 time.
27 position players ever. By Baseball-Reference's calculation.
@CardGeek said:
Why didn't the Angels trade 1 great Trout for like 3 really good guys? So they could have a functional team.
Too late. He's past his prime and due a ton of money.
Yeah, I mean years ago. I wasn't following baseball when Trout was doing well. Since I started paying attention again he hasn't been so great.
When I started paying attention to baseball again in 2020, one of my friends came over here and asked me if I knew who Mike Trout was. I had never heard of him. My friend said he was the generational player. The face of baseball.
So, not paying attention to baseball so much from about 2002-2020, I had never heard him mentioned. I watch and read news pretty much every day and have for the past 30 years. I don't usually closely examine the sports section though.
I did not know he had a no trade clause.
Interesting sports path you had. What took your attention away from baseball all that time?
The crazy thing about Trout is that his detractors keep harping on him being injured and somehow trying to use that to discount his generationally elite prime(where he played full time), but the opposite take is that without all those injuries Trout would already have 500 Home Runs at age 33.
As of April 2022, when ESPN reporter Jeff Passan cited the statistic, eight position players had achieved a single-season WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 10 or higher. These players were Barry Bonds (five times), Mike Trout (twice), and Mookie Betts, Rickey Henderson, Joe Morgan, Buster Posey, Alex Rodriguez, and Cal Ripken Jr. (once each)
For Kershaw comparison, I was just showing the comparison against the two other pitchers someone thought was just as good or whatever they were thinking. WAR means something, it's a metric. This biggest metric for me when comparing players is who wins. The great players usually play on winners or make their teams winners.
Trout is a great player, has great stats. But is team finishes in last place every year. even when Ohtani played with him. Kind of like Pete Maravich or George Gervin -- great scorers, but their teams where usually just ok.
Ohtani goes to LA and instantly becomes the best player on the best team and wins a championship. When he had Trout, they couldn't make the playoffs.
The greatest players win championships -- Bill Russell, Jordan, Brady, Magic, Larry, Mahomes. Or at least compete in the playoffs every year. Trout is a great player as long as nothing is on the line. His stats look great, until the chips get larger. If someone is going to pay $55,000 for a BGS 9.5 card, I would assume you would be getting a Tom Brady Rookie or Ohtani Rookie or a Mario rookie? Bird/Magic Rookie. Kobe Rookie. WINNERS.
Ernie Banks, Killebrew -- have that stigma. Great players, really great, but won zilch.
As of April 2022, when ESPN reporter Jeff Passan cited the statistic, eight position players had achieved a single-season WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 10 or higher. These players were Barry Bonds (five times), Mike Trout (twice), and Mookie Betts, Rickey Henderson, Joe ****Morgan, Buster Posey, Alex Rodriguez, and Cal Ripken Jr. (once each)
Aaron Judge has 2 since. Maybe others too?
Nice post.
Huh???? Error riddled is a nice post??? BTW the poster was honorable and admitted the huge errors and omissions then corrected it in another post.
BTW RUTH ALONE had 7 10+ WARs including the current all time high single season. MAYS did it 6 times!
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972) Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me 2025
Interesting sports path you had. What took your attention away from baseball all that time?
The crazy thing about Trout is that his detractors keep harping on him being injured and somehow trying to use that to discount his generationally elite prime(where he played full time), but the opposite take is that without all those injuries Trout would already have 500 Home Runs at age 33.
Until 2002 I had a coworker who was a sports fan. After 2002 I just stopped paying attention so much. Office also had season tickets to everything and would give them away if they hadn't been allocated by the day of the game. So I'd end up getting a bunch of Dodgers and Lakers and Kings tickets. At some point they started flipping the tickets if they weren't going to be used instead of giving them to employees. I think they figured out that I'd trade them for store credit sometimes.
Most impressive post season statistic, IMO, is the career leader in ERA (minimum of 30 IP to qualify):
Mariano Rivera - 0.70 ERA, 141.0 IP
The only two other guys in the top 10 with more than 40 IP are
Sandy Koufax - 0.95 ERA, 57.0 IP
Christy Mathewson - 0.97 ERA, 101.2 IP
and most of those runs were Jay Paytons 3 run shot in 2000.
There is a reason Riveria was the first unanimous HOFer, his career in every respect dwarfs all other relievers. He is the primary reason for the late 90s dynasty.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972) Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me 2025
Most impressive post season statistic, IMO, is the career leader in ERA (minimum of 30 IP to qualify):
Mariano Rivera - 0.70 ERA, 141.0 IP
The only two other guys in the top 10 with more than 40 IP are
Sandy Koufax - 0.95 ERA, 57.0 IP
Christy Mathewson - 0.97 ERA, 101.2 IP
and most of those runs were Jay Paytons 3 run shot in 2000.
There is a reason Riveria was the first unanimous HOFer, his career in every respect dwarfs all other relievers. He is the primary reason for the late 90s dynasty.
Yeah, 0.70 in 141 innings is legendary. I knew he was superb in the playoffs, but didn't realize to what degree. Sadly, my first thought of him is the Luis Gonzalez walkoff.
Most impressive post season statistic, IMO, is the career leader in ERA (minimum of 30 IP to qualify):
Mariano Rivera - 0.70 ERA, 141.0 IP
The only two other guys in the top 10 with more than 40 IP are
Sandy Koufax - 0.95 ERA, 57.0 IP
Christy Mathewson - 0.97 ERA, 101.2 IP
and most of those runs were Jay Paytons 3 run shot in 2000.
There is a reason Riveria was the first unanimous HOFer, his career in every respect dwarfs all other relievers. He is the primary reason for the late 90s dynasty.
Yeah, 0.70 in 141 innings is legendary. I knew he was superb in the playoffs, but didn't realize to what degree. Sadly, my first thought of him is the Luis Gonzalez walkoff.
That is my first thought of him too. Now seeing the documentary on the Red Sox comeback from being down 3-0, blowing the save in Game 4 is added to the list. Hard to compare him to SPs when he couldn't make it as a starter. I'm pretty confident if he had to throw 7 or 8 innings the numbers would have been ugly. The postseason numbers are impressive and the cumulative career numbers are impressive but in terms of the best seasons by a reliever he does not have many that are at the top of the list. 2008 pretty incredible but the other years probably not in the conversation for top 20 best seasons by a reliever. 2008 debatable but probably not 10. This year Chapman and last year Clase maybe better than any regular season Mariano had.
In terms of impressive SPs in the postseason I think Bumgarner Schilling Eovaldi and Smoltz were some of the best I have seen. I felt Josh Beckett was about as good as it gets in Florida and his first year in the playoffs in Boston but it was a bad finish. Randy Johnson similar, his best may have been better than anybody but he had his less impressive years.
(Edited to remove something I once wrote, didn't post but accidentally was included here)
I am noticing an "over emphasis" narrative forming regarding defensive WAR vs. offensive WAR. I don't know that defense isn't being over emphasized, but I can't find the over emphasis.
WAR takes Runs into consideration.
I would accept the argument that an offensive run created is worth more than a defensive run saved. You can't win with a tie. But it's a really small difference right? like a 51/49 or something similar.
So then it's how you get to a Win, Runs, and how you get to a Run (Bases on offense) or a Run (Bases saved on defense). There's a fair bit of intrigue and subjectivity in how these runs saved are determined I suppose, but it's not so mysterious.
There has been quite a bit of discussion on the validity of applying the position adjustment individually. I can see both sides of that argument.
How I see it is.
If you apply the positional coefficient once, you're looking at it more realistically, as a positional player who fields and bats. Right. That's natural and obvious... I think this is false precision even though it immediately makes more sense.
However, if you apply the positional coefficient twice, then you're truly embracing the abstract. And now when you're looking at a player's dWAR you're considering how they relate to the average fielder - not just their positional contemporaries. This is more interesting because it looks at offense and defense independently and ironically describes real things, like where a team will prioritize defense over offense at certain positions.
Regarding Ohtani he's an interesting case when he's pitching cause that's perhaps inflating his WAR a bit. But one place where WAR doesn't give you a great view and this can happen across a season or so is in clutch or anti-clutch performance. Because it's simply a bases = runs = wins at some rate... randomness happens right. But I think it's a good algorithm because it makes much more sense than it doesn't.
@UlyssesExtravaganza said:
Its occurring to me that WAR isnt so much misleading about what it is. Maybe the main issue people have with WAR is its seen as how valuable the player is but it isnt really supposed to be that. It does seem that the media throws it around like WAR is an indicator of how valuable you are. But yeah using the Grich example it kind of just means how much better you are than other guys at your position with an overemphasis on defense. Then do you want the guy with the higher WAR because he is a better 2B than most or the Triple Crown guy with defensive limitations at first. Probably the latter.
It would be cool if there was some other metric that calculated how valuable you were or productive you were. I dont think WAR is that. Maybe it was never intended to be. I look at Ohtani in the years 2022 and 2023. 22 he has 34 HRs and an .875 OPS and throws 166 IP at a 2.33 ERA. In 23 he has an over 1.00 OPS with 44 HRs 130 IP at 3.14. If WAR was supposed to measure value of a player to a team I think he has to be at 14 to 18 for each of those years. Maybe 30. He got 10 for one year, 9.6 for the other.
I think there is just close to no comparison in terms of value he has to his team when he pitches well and hits well. Its like if he was completely average at hitting and pitching he would be 0 but it wouldn't feel accurate, cause he is one guy filling two roles. I dont care how great a season a guy has as a batter or pitcher, if he does not do both and Ohtani does do both, think his value and productiveness off the charts exceeds the other guys. Like maybe WAR should not compare him to other pitchers but more how other DH's or batters pitch, which is not at all. He is immeasurably better at pitching than other DHs and batters but WAR cant get that into the math.
So at the end of the day, WAR is just a stat. Its not the measure of the best player, the same way the person with most runs scored is not necessarily the best.> @lahmejoon said:
Most impressive post season statistic, IMO, is the career leader in ERA (minimum of 30 IP to qualify):
Mariano Rivera - 0.70 ERA, 141.0 IP
The only two other guys in the top 10 with more than 40 IP are
Sandy Koufax - 0.95 ERA, 57.0 IP
Christy Mathewson - 0.97 ERA, 101.2 IP
and most of those runs were Jay Paytons 3 run shot in 2000.
There is a reason Riveria was the first unanimous HOFer, his career in every respect dwarfs all other relievers. He is the primary reason for the late 90s dynasty.
Yeah, 0.70 in 141 innings is legendary. I knew he was superb in the playoffs, but didn't realize to what degree. Sadly, my first thought of him is the Luis Gonzalez walkoff.
That is my first thought of him too. Now seeing the documentary on the Red Sox comeback from being down 3-0, blowing the save in Game 4 is added to the list. Hard to compare him to SPs when he couldn't make it as a starter. I'm pretty confident if he had to throw 7 or 8 innings the numbers would have been ugly. The postseason numbers are impressive and the cumulative career numbers are impressive but in terms of the best seasons by a reliever he does not have many that are at the top of the list. 2008 pretty incredible but the other years probably not in the conversation for top 20 best seasons by a reliever. 2008 debatable but probably not 10. This year Chapman and last year Clase maybe better than any regular season Mariano had.
In terms of impressive SPs in the postseason I think Bumgarner Schilling Eovaldi and Smoltz were some of the best I have seen. I felt Josh Beckett was about as good as it gets in Florida and his first year in the playoffs in Boston but it was a bad finish. Randy Johnson similar, his best may have been better than anybody but he had his less impressive years.
A more accurate offensive measure is the Run Expectancy. It includes the proper value for BB, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, out made, strikeout made, and also each of those hits with runners on base, number of outs at the time, contact outs, baserunning etc...everything the fan wished they knew of back in 1981 is right there. Here it is.
2013 Cabrerra Run Expectancy was 76 runs above league average
1973 Grich Run Expectancy was 10 runs above league average.
SO even if you took Grich's defensive WAR at face value and gave him his 29 runs saved defensively and then added 5 more runs for the position between the two players, you get the following
2013 Cabrerra 76 runs above average minus 3 runs for defense equal 73.
1973 Grich 10 runs plus 29 defensive runs plus 5 positional runs equal 44.
That is much more in line with what most intuitively see with their senses. It is also far more accurate than the zealots who view their decisions through biased goggles.
@bgr said:
There's talk now that Kershaw might be playing himself out of the HOF...
Per the OP's premise, 'how could anyone want to buy cards of a guy with a 4.63 post season ERA?'
It isn't hard to get to the post season being on the Dodgers...Ohtani showed how easy to get there by simply changing teams.
once again he is there. Trout is not, never has been, and never will. He's a regular season guy like Killebrew and Banks. Great players, just not prime time players. Trout is Pete Maravich not Larry Bird.
@bgr said:
There's talk now that Kershaw might be playing himself out of the HOF...
Per the OP's premise, 'how could anyone want to buy cards of a guy with a 4.63 post season ERA?'
It isn't hard to get to the post season being on the Dodgers...Ohtani showed how easy to get there by simply changing teams.
once again he is there. Trout is not, never has been, and never will. He's a regular season guy like Killebrew and Banks. Great players, just not prime time players. Trout is Pete Maravich not Larry Bird.
Not there because the organization made a ton of bad decisions and their team stunk...same reason Ohtani didn't sniff the playoffs with them. Not too hard to understand when you understand the nature of the game.
Again, per your premise Kershaw's career is nothing of note due to his poor playoff performances. Can't have it both ways.
A good case can be made that if Kershaw wasn't so bad in the playoffs that the Dodgers could have won two or three more World Series. Or more.
Peyton Manning, arguably the greatest regular season QB ever. The real big heavy games he often took a step back. He has 2 Super Bowl rings but not because he stepped up in the big game. They won even with him being a lesser version of himself. Deserves credit for eventually winning some of the Tom Brady Colts Pats game. But it went back to the Volunteers. Never could beat the Gators. Tee Martin beat Florida in his first year.
Only people downgrading Trout are the ones who have financial incentive to see lower prices now so they can reap future profit when the misinformed lemmings sell . Let's call it what it is
You can always tell who actually watches baseball and who just reads about it.
Trouty has always been my favorite player to watch, because I find it so fascinating that he can be so extraordinarily good in the most mundane moments when it absolutely doesn't matter, but increase the pressure on him in just the slightest, and he chokes all over himself. This is absolute fact, and if the jockriders would actually watch the games, they would see this with clear eyes. I've seen nearly every at bat that Trouty has taken since 2012, and probably 75+ percent of his fielding chances.
Let me clear, because this seems to get mischaracterized. I don't believe that I have ever said that Trouty doesn't belong in the HOF. I don't believe I have ever docked him much, if at all, for being hurt. I actually wish he was able to be on the field more so I would have more opportunity to bet against him. Trouty striking out with the game on the line is one of the best stone cold locks that a professional gambler could have to make a play on.
Several things work against Trouty. The first is that he isn't a winner. Somehow, that gets twisted into some argument that I'm faulting him for being on a bad team. No, I'm faulting him for the team being bad. Look through the roster of players and coaches, and their careers before and after playing with Trouty. There are a LOT of winners there. The one constant the last 11 years has been Trouty. The old saying goes, if you have a problem with one or two people, they're the problem. If you have a problem with everyone, the problem is likely you. He just doesn't have that extra gear of competitiveness that all of the great ones have.
Trouty has never been a good outfielder. He has 2 catches that made it onto a Topps card, and suddenly everyone thinks it's a shame that he's never won a Gold Glove. I can't tell you how many times the "terrible" Angels pitching staff gave up runs they shouldn't have because Trouty loafed it on a shallow fly ball, took it on the bounce, and then his pop-gun arm couldn't keep a guy from going first to third or second to home. If you watched, you'd know this. I believe the last game that Joe Madden managed, the Angels lost 1-0 to the Red Sox because Trouty threw the ball to the wrong base allowing the runner to move up and score. To their credit, the announcers called it out. You can watch it on the MLB.TV archives. These things that I'm saying only shock people that don't watch the games.
Trouty doesn't have any heart in him. He's not a guy that wants to win. He's been showered with praise from the beginning, with people counting down until he had 10 years service time, always saying that he doesn't have to do anything else, he's already a HOFer. That was the worst thing his "fans" could have done to him. It made him complacent. He knows he has it good on the west coast on the secondary Los Angeles team. Even if people stay up to watch him play, see him hit a homerun in the first inning, no one will stick around to see the strikeouts in the 7th and 9th with the winning runs on base.
Trouty has been and still is one of the easiest outs in the game with his team down 1-2 runs from the 7th inning on. Trouty has zero clutch in him. You can look all of this up on his game logs and play by play. He hasn't hit a walkoff homerun since 2015. He's only hit 3 homeruns in his entire career in the 7th inning or later that have flipped the score from losing to winning. Think of all of the clutch homeruns that you see on a nightly basis on the highlight shows, and just tell yourself that none of those highlights have been Trouty for over 10 years. It's just absurd that people go on and on about him like he's this all-timer, when the reality is something else.
Put him in the HOF, sure, as he's just been compiling numbers now for a decade, if we're being truthful. He's just playing out the string, making his millions out of the spotlight, not a care in the world because no one watches and no one calls him out.
Also, if you get a chance, Google "Eric Kay Mike Trout pimple". Who'd have ever thought we'd be hearing court testimony about Trouty's bacne, and it not have anything to do with steroids?
You're welcome, and thank you for your attention to this matter.
Only people downgrading Trout are the ones who have financial incentive to see lower prices now so they can reap future profit when the misinformed lemmings sell . Let's call it what it is
6,825 10s of Trouts 2011 Topps Update base card. That's a lot of 10s.
Only people downgrading Trout are the ones who have financial incentive to see lower prices now so they can reap future profit when the misinformed lemmings sell . Let's call it what it is
just don't understand why people pay so much for his cards. 55,000 for a bgs 9.5 just seems ridiculous to me. mike seems like a great guy and he's great player, but none of his cards should sell for 55,000.
@lahmejoon said:
Using basketball comparisons, Kershaw is like Kevin Love - sucky in postseason, but still won a chip.
5 th winningest postseason pitcher of all-time and he sucks? wow!!
he is 5th best LH ever in war,
lets here love stats? is he the 5the best at anything in nba history? 5the best at any playoff stat?
remember kershaw has the winning % since 1920.
sure fire hofer, and multiple ws champion
Kershaw is amazing. You won't get a counter argument from me.
It is just comical that you try to diminish Trout's great career by harping on his 1 for 12 with a HR in the post season and then you rally around the guy who probably has the worst post season reputation of the last 30 years.
@lahmejoon said:
Using basketball comparisons, Kershaw is like Kevin Love - sucky in postseason, but still won a chip.
5 th winningest postseason pitcher of all-time and he sucks? wow!!
he is 5th best LH ever in war,
lets here love stats? is he the 5the best at anything in nba history? 5the best at any playoff stat?
remember kershaw has the winning % since 1920.
sure fire hofer, and multiple ws champion
Kershaw is amazing. You won't get a counter argument from me.
It is just comical that you try to diminish Trout's great career by harping on his 1 for 12 with a HR in the post season and then you rally around the guy who probably has the worst post season reputation of the last 30 years.
^^ This.
5th most wins in post season history is great and all, and you're going to wear rose-colored glasses with respect to your guy, but you have to acknowledge the story in its entirety. Out of the guys in the top 10 in wins in the post season, his stats are the most underwelming. Nice accomplishment, but postseaon meltdowns are also part of his legacy, which in many's eyes, would probaly keep him out of the upper echalon of all-time pitchers (well, maybe that's harsh - he is the best regular season pitcher of this generation). Still no-doubt HOFer, but the inadequacies in the post season is still part of his story.
@countdouglas had a pretty good summary of Trout. Still HOF, even if he's the Pete Marivich of baseball, which in all actuality, is really awesome.
yep pete was a terrific player. trout is a terrific player, through age 28. last 5 or 6 years, very average maybe below average. when your cards sell for over a million dollars, then one would think hes the best of all-time or one of the top 5. kershaw's cards don't even approach $10,000, but according to many of you they are similar players because of their WAR.
trout killebrew banks -- all great players, but the playoffs left them behind. and who is paying a million dollars for killebrew or banks?
High values get established by wealthy people who love to play chicken with their piles of money. To argue for or against any professional athlete being “worth” a specific amount matters only to the deep pocket business owners who employ them. There’s no logic to pricing cards. The dollar sign is precluded by emotion. Rich folks hate to lose. And they don’t give a fat flying focaccia about WAR.
@ElMagoStrikeZone said:
High values get established by wealthy people who love to play chicken with their piles of money. To argue for or against any professional athlete being “worth” a specific amount matters only to the deep pocket business owners who employ them. There’s no logic to pricing cards. The dollar sign is precluded by emotion. Rich folks hate to lose. And they don’t give a fat flying focaccia about WAR.
very interesting post..you may have resolved the trout dilemma.
@ElMagoStrikeZone said:
High values get established by wealthy people who love to play chicken with their piles of money. To argue for or against any professional athlete being “worth” a specific amount matters only to the deep pocket business owners who employ them. There’s no logic to pricing cards. The dollar sign is precluded by emotion. Rich folks hate to lose. And they don’t give a fat flying focaccia about WAR.
I neither agree nor disagree at the moment, but it certainly deserves deeper thought on our part!
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972) Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me 2025
Has anyone one mentioned that for most part since the Topps era began except for outliers like Ryan and Koufax for example, Pitchers get little love?
I for one would not sink money into any modern card of a Pitcher. As I don't like the 99% odds of getting burned.
In fact the I've only 2 cards of Pitchers in my slab collection that have been issued in the last 35 years. A 92 Bowman Mariano which worked out OK, and a 99 Bowman Chrome CC which if accounting for inflation has lost value since I purchased it in 2007.
IMHO the best fiscally sound move for long term is to stick with those who weild the bat.
P.S of course to Seaver, Gibson and others have proved to be sound safe in long term but simply nowhere near Ryan or Koufax level of interest.
Please note I do not sell cards. Im sure short term dough can be made by flipping modern Pitchers cards while the iron is hot. Rubes love making bad expenditures over and over...in that type of cycle, buy what you like does not make a smart financial move in any manner whatsoover
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972) Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me 2025
Clemens does alright. Randy gets a little love but not much. It's very interesting since Pitchers are the usually pretty darn popular. Skubal, Skenes come to mind as hot.
@olb31 said:
Clemens does alright. Randy gets a little love but not much. It's very interesting since Pitchers are the usually pretty darn popular. Skubal, Skenes come to mind as hot.
Which Randy Johnson cards do you think should sell for more than they are now?
@olb31 said:
Clemens does alright. Randy gets a little love but not much. It's very interesting since Pitchers are the usually pretty darn popular. Skubal, Skenes come to mind as hot.
Short-Term "Hot". How many of you are glad you held on to Strasberg, Lincecum cards? Verlander and Scherzer are locked 1st ballets HOF's but were they good investments? Good means it must at least match the S&P 500 and beat inflation.
My guess is in the Long term one will be very lucky to recoup, accounting for inflation even 25 cents on the dollar on Skubal, Skenes purchases they are making right now. Even if one of them becomes the next Randy Johnson or Greg Maddux - from a Trading Card investment standpoint -- So What!
Also keep in mind every active Pitcher is always one toss away from TJ surgery. Stick with those who swing lumber
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972) Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me 2025
@olb31 said:
Clemens does alright. Randy gets a little love but not much. It's very interesting since Pitchers are the usually pretty darn popular. Skubal, Skenes come to mind as hot.
Which Randy Johnson cards do you think should sell for more than they are now?
89 Fleer Glossy. Although it has come up a bit in last couple years.
155 PSA 10's.
2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
@olb31 said:
Clemens does alright. Randy gets a little love but not much. It's very interesting since Pitchers are the usually pretty darn popular. Skubal, Skenes come to mind as hot.
Which Randy Johnson cards do you think should sell for more than they are now?
1989 donruss baseball best
1989 score hottest rookies
1989 fleer glossy
1986 minor league - first card
I don't know much about the prices or the rarity so I appreciate any info. I assumed his cards sold for less because of the overprinting of his RC era. Can you provide a little more info on why you think these are undervalued? Thanks
@bgr said:
I don't know much about the prices or the rarity so I appreciate any info. I assumed his cards sold for less because of the overprinting of his RC era. Can you provide a little more info on why you think these are undervalued? Thanks
Fleer Glossy are comparable to the Topps Tiffany cards. Only available in factory sets.
His standard Fleer card is the "Marlboro" error card. Pricing is high on the cards where the word Marlboro is clearly visible on the sign in the background.
1989 Donruss Baseballs Best is undervalued. Only 258 grade a PSA 10
2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
I have a Fleer Glossy Griffey rookie being graded right now.
I picked up a set because you pointed out how few Griffey's there were in PSA 10.
I'm hoping to owe you a big "thank you" in a month or so!
At the same time I bought a Johnson rookie already graded on your recommendation and it's gone up in price nicely. The last 2 sold for $450.00 each. Pretty sure I paid $300.00.
Good call!
2013,14 and 15 Certificate Award Winner Harmon Killebrew Master Set and Master Topps Set
Comments
Looks like there are 60 single seasons with 10 or more for position players in MLB history. BBRef WAR.
My post was AI generated btw...
Part of it may be a discrepancy in how the calculation is made.
According to Baseball-Reference Bonds has only done it 3 times.
Henderson has never done it. He did have 2, 9.9 seasons.
Buster Posey has never done it. His best season was 7.6.
Ruth 7 times.
Mays 6 times.
Bonds 3 times.
Mantle 3 times.
Cobb 3 times.
7 players 2 times.
15 players 1 time.
27 position players ever. By Baseball-Reference's calculation.
Interesting sports path you had. What took your attention away from baseball all that time?
The crazy thing about Trout is that his detractors keep harping on him being injured and somehow trying to use that to discount his generationally elite prime(where he played full time), but the opposite take is that without all those injuries Trout would already have 500 Home Runs at age 33.
Nice post.
For Kershaw comparison, I was just showing the comparison against the two other pitchers someone thought was just as good or whatever they were thinking. WAR means something, it's a metric. This biggest metric for me when comparing players is who wins. The great players usually play on winners or make their teams winners.
Trout is a great player, has great stats. But is team finishes in last place every year. even when Ohtani played with him. Kind of like Pete Maravich or George Gervin -- great scorers, but their teams where usually just ok.
Ohtani goes to LA and instantly becomes the best player on the best team and wins a championship. When he had Trout, they couldn't make the playoffs.
The greatest players win championships -- Bill Russell, Jordan, Brady, Magic, Larry, Mahomes. Or at least compete in the playoffs every year. Trout is a great player as long as nothing is on the line. His stats look great, until the chips get larger. If someone is going to pay $55,000 for a BGS 9.5 card, I would assume you would be getting a Tom Brady Rookie or Ohtani Rookie or a Mario rookie? Bird/Magic Rookie. Kobe Rookie. WINNERS.
Ernie Banks, Killebrew -- have that stigma. Great players, really great, but won zilch.
Huh???? Error riddled is a nice post??? BTW the poster was honorable and admitted the huge errors and omissions then corrected it in another post.
BTW RUTH ALONE had 7 10+ WARs including the current all time high single season. MAYS did it 6 times!
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me 2025
.> @1948_Swell_Robinson said:
>
Until 2002 I had a coworker who was a sports fan. After 2002 I just stopped paying attention so much. Office also had season tickets to everything and would give them away if they hadn't been allocated by the day of the game. So I'd end up getting a bunch of Dodgers and Lakers and Kings tickets. At some point they started flipping the tickets if they weren't going to be used instead of giving them to employees. I think they figured out that I'd trade them for store credit sometimes.
Interesting post-season career pitching statistics for top 10 in wins:
Player W-L ERA
Pettitte 19-11 3.81
Verlander 17-12 3.58
Smoltz 15-4 2.67
Glavine 14-16 3.30
Kershaw 13-13 4.49
Clemens 12-8 3.75
Foster 12-7 2.54
Maddux 11-14 3.27
Cole 11-6 2.77
Schilling 11-2 2.23
Most impressive post season statistic, IMO, is the career leader in ERA (minimum of 30 IP to qualify):
Mariano Rivera - 0.70 ERA, 141.0 IP
The only two other guys in the top 10 with more than 40 IP are
Sandy Koufax - 0.95 ERA, 57.0 IP
Christy Mathewson - 0.97 ERA, 101.2 IP
BTW > @lahmejoon said:
and most of those runs were Jay Paytons 3 run shot in 2000.
There is a reason Riveria was the first unanimous HOFer, his career in every respect dwarfs all other relievers. He is the primary reason for the late 90s dynasty.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me 2025
Yeah, 0.70 in 141 innings is legendary. I knew he was superb in the playoffs, but didn't realize to what degree. Sadly, my first thought of him is the Luis Gonzalez walkoff.
And ZERO of those innings wax against a weak team. All were above . .500 and most were against the very elite of each season.
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me 2025
There's talk now that Kershaw might be playing himself out of the HOF...
@lahmejoon said:
That is my first thought of him too. Now seeing the documentary on the Red Sox comeback from being down 3-0, blowing the save in Game 4 is added to the list. Hard to compare him to SPs when he couldn't make it as a starter. I'm pretty confident if he had to throw 7 or 8 innings the numbers would have been ugly. The postseason numbers are impressive and the cumulative career numbers are impressive but in terms of the best seasons by a reliever he does not have many that are at the top of the list. 2008 pretty incredible but the other years probably not in the conversation for top 20 best seasons by a reliever. 2008 debatable but probably not 10. This year Chapman and last year Clase maybe better than any regular season Mariano had.
In terms of impressive SPs in the postseason I think Bumgarner Schilling Eovaldi and Smoltz were some of the best I have seen. I felt Josh Beckett was about as good as it gets in Florida and his first year in the playoffs in Boston but it was a bad finish. Randy Johnson similar, his best may have been better than anybody but he had his less impressive years.
(Edited to remove something I once wrote, didn't post but accidentally was included here)
Not a very good game for sure. Trout would have loved just be at the game. He couldn't find his way...
Player W-L ERA
Pettitte 19-11 3.81
Verlander 17-12 3.58
Smoltz 15-4 2.67
Glavine 14-16 3.30
Kershaw 13-13 4.49 -> 4.64
Clemens 12-8 3.75
Foster 12-7 2.54
Maddux 11-14 3.27
Cole 11-6 2.77
Schilling 11-2 2.23
I am noticing an "over emphasis" narrative forming regarding defensive WAR vs. offensive WAR. I don't know that defense isn't being over emphasized, but I can't find the over emphasis.
WAR takes Runs into consideration.
I would accept the argument that an offensive run created is worth more than a defensive run saved. You can't win with a tie. But it's a really small difference right? like a 51/49 or something similar.
So then it's how you get to a Win, Runs, and how you get to a Run (Bases on offense) or a Run (Bases saved on defense). There's a fair bit of intrigue and subjectivity in how these runs saved are determined I suppose, but it's not so mysterious.
There has been quite a bit of discussion on the validity of applying the position adjustment individually. I can see both sides of that argument.
How I see it is.
If you apply the positional coefficient once, you're looking at it more realistically, as a positional player who fields and bats. Right. That's natural and obvious... I think this is false precision even though it immediately makes more sense.
However, if you apply the positional coefficient twice, then you're truly embracing the abstract. And now when you're looking at a player's dWAR you're considering how they relate to the average fielder - not just their positional contemporaries. This is more interesting because it looks at offense and defense independently and ironically describes real things, like where a team will prioritize defense over offense at certain positions.
Regarding Ohtani he's an interesting case when he's pitching cause that's perhaps inflating his WAR a bit. But one place where WAR doesn't give you a great view and this can happen across a season or so is in clutch or anti-clutch performance. Because it's simply a bases = runs = wins at some rate... randomness happens right. But I think it's a good algorithm because it makes much more sense than it doesn't.
Per the OP's premise, 'how could anyone want to buy cards of a guy with a 4.63 post season ERA?'
It isn't hard to get to the post season being on the Dodgers...Ohtani showed how easy to get there by simply changing teams.
A more accurate offensive measure is the Run Expectancy. It includes the proper value for BB, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, out made, strikeout made, and also each of those hits with runners on base, number of outs at the time, contact outs, baserunning etc...everything the fan wished they knew of back in 1981 is right there. Here it is.
2013 Cabrerra Run Expectancy was 76 runs above league average
1973 Grich Run Expectancy was 10 runs above league average.
SO even if you took Grich's defensive WAR at face value and gave him his 29 runs saved defensively and then added 5 more runs for the position between the two players, you get the following
2013 Cabrerra 76 runs above average minus 3 runs for defense equal 73.
1973 Grich 10 runs plus 29 defensive runs plus 5 positional runs equal 44.
That is much more in line with what most intuitively see with their senses. It is also far more accurate than the zealots who view their decisions through biased goggles.
once again he is there. Trout is not, never has been, and never will. He's a regular season guy like Killebrew and Banks. Great players, just not prime time players. Trout is Pete Maravich not Larry Bird.
Not there because the organization made a ton of bad decisions and their team stunk...same reason Ohtani didn't sniff the playoffs with them. Not too hard to understand when you understand the nature of the game.
Again, per your premise Kershaw's career is nothing of note due to his poor playoff performances. Can't have it both ways.
A good case can be made that if Kershaw wasn't so bad in the playoffs that the Dodgers could have won two or three more World Series. Or more.
Using basketball comparisons, Kershaw is like Kevin Love - sucky in postseason, but still won a chip.
Peyton Manning, arguably the greatest regular season QB ever. The real big heavy games he often took a step back. He has 2 Super Bowl rings but not because he stepped up in the big game. They won even with him being a lesser version of himself. Deserves credit for eventually winning some of the Tom Brady Colts Pats game. But it went back to the Volunteers. Never could beat the Gators. Tee Martin beat Florida in his first year.
Only people downgrading Trout are the ones who have financial incentive to see lower prices now so they can reap future profit when the misinformed lemmings sell . Let's call it what it is
You can always tell who actually watches baseball and who just reads about it.
Trouty has always been my favorite player to watch, because I find it so fascinating that he can be so extraordinarily good in the most mundane moments when it absolutely doesn't matter, but increase the pressure on him in just the slightest, and he chokes all over himself. This is absolute fact, and if the jockriders would actually watch the games, they would see this with clear eyes. I've seen nearly every at bat that Trouty has taken since 2012, and probably 75+ percent of his fielding chances.
Let me clear, because this seems to get mischaracterized. I don't believe that I have ever said that Trouty doesn't belong in the HOF. I don't believe I have ever docked him much, if at all, for being hurt. I actually wish he was able to be on the field more so I would have more opportunity to bet against him. Trouty striking out with the game on the line is one of the best stone cold locks that a professional gambler could have to make a play on.
Several things work against Trouty. The first is that he isn't a winner. Somehow, that gets twisted into some argument that I'm faulting him for being on a bad team. No, I'm faulting him for the team being bad. Look through the roster of players and coaches, and their careers before and after playing with Trouty. There are a LOT of winners there. The one constant the last 11 years has been Trouty. The old saying goes, if you have a problem with one or two people, they're the problem. If you have a problem with everyone, the problem is likely you. He just doesn't have that extra gear of competitiveness that all of the great ones have.
Trouty has never been a good outfielder. He has 2 catches that made it onto a Topps card, and suddenly everyone thinks it's a shame that he's never won a Gold Glove. I can't tell you how many times the "terrible" Angels pitching staff gave up runs they shouldn't have because Trouty loafed it on a shallow fly ball, took it on the bounce, and then his pop-gun arm couldn't keep a guy from going first to third or second to home. If you watched, you'd know this. I believe the last game that Joe Madden managed, the Angels lost 1-0 to the Red Sox because Trouty threw the ball to the wrong base allowing the runner to move up and score. To their credit, the announcers called it out. You can watch it on the MLB.TV archives. These things that I'm saying only shock people that don't watch the games.
Trouty doesn't have any heart in him. He's not a guy that wants to win. He's been showered with praise from the beginning, with people counting down until he had 10 years service time, always saying that he doesn't have to do anything else, he's already a HOFer. That was the worst thing his "fans" could have done to him. It made him complacent. He knows he has it good on the west coast on the secondary Los Angeles team. Even if people stay up to watch him play, see him hit a homerun in the first inning, no one will stick around to see the strikeouts in the 7th and 9th with the winning runs on base.
Trouty has been and still is one of the easiest outs in the game with his team down 1-2 runs from the 7th inning on. Trouty has zero clutch in him. You can look all of this up on his game logs and play by play. He hasn't hit a walkoff homerun since 2015. He's only hit 3 homeruns in his entire career in the 7th inning or later that have flipped the score from losing to winning. Think of all of the clutch homeruns that you see on a nightly basis on the highlight shows, and just tell yourself that none of those highlights have been Trouty for over 10 years. It's just absurd that people go on and on about him like he's this all-timer, when the reality is something else.
Put him in the HOF, sure, as he's just been compiling numbers now for a decade, if we're being truthful. He's just playing out the string, making his millions out of the spotlight, not a care in the world because no one watches and no one calls him out.
Also, if you get a chance, Google "Eric Kay Mike Trout pimple". Who'd have ever thought we'd be hearing court testimony about Trouty's bacne, and it not have anything to do with steroids?
You're welcome, and thank you for your attention to this matter.
.> @2014bestservice said:
6,825 10s of Trouts 2011 Topps Update base card. That's a lot of 10s.
but only 48 10s have autographs.
i > @2014bestservice said:
just don't understand why people pay so much for his cards. 55,000 for a bgs 9.5 just seems ridiculous to me. mike seems like a great guy and he's great player, but none of his cards should sell for 55,000.
5 th winningest postseason pitcher of all-time and he sucks? wow!!
he is 5th best LH ever in war,
lets here love stats? is he the 5the best at anything in nba history? 5the best at any playoff stat?
remember kershaw has the winning % since 1920.
sure fire hofer, and multiple ws champion
That’s the point.
Kershaw is amazing. You won't get a counter argument from me.
It is just comical that you try to diminish Trout's great career by harping on his 1 for 12 with a HR in the post season and then you rally around the guy who probably has the worst post season reputation of the last 30 years.
^^ This.
5th most wins in post season history is great and all, and you're going to wear rose-colored glasses with respect to your guy, but you have to acknowledge the story in its entirety. Out of the guys in the top 10 in wins in the post season, his stats are the most underwelming. Nice accomplishment, but postseaon meltdowns are also part of his legacy, which in many's eyes, would probaly keep him out of the upper echalon of all-time pitchers (well, maybe that's harsh - he is the best regular season pitcher of this generation). Still no-doubt HOFer, but the inadequacies in the post season is still part of his story.
@countdouglas had a pretty good summary of Trout. Still HOF, even if he's the Pete Marivich of baseball, which in all actuality, is really awesome.
yep pete was a terrific player. trout is a terrific player, through age 28. last 5 or 6 years, very average maybe below average. when your cards sell for over a million dollars, then one would think hes the best of all-time or one of the top 5. kershaw's cards don't even approach $10,000, but according to many of you they are similar players because of their WAR.
trout killebrew banks -- all great players, but the playoffs left them behind. and who is paying a million dollars for killebrew or banks?
High values get established by wealthy people who love to play chicken with their piles of money. To argue for or against any professional athlete being “worth” a specific amount matters only to the deep pocket business owners who employ them. There’s no logic to pricing cards. The dollar sign is precluded by emotion. Rich folks hate to lose. And they don’t give a fat flying focaccia about WAR.
very interesting post..you may have resolved the trout dilemma.
I neither agree nor disagree at the moment, but it certainly deserves deeper thought on our part!
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me 2025
Has anyone one mentioned that for most part since the Topps era began except for outliers like Ryan and Koufax for example, Pitchers get little love?
I for one would not sink money into any modern card of a Pitcher. As I don't like the 99% odds of getting burned.
In fact the I've only 2 cards of Pitchers in my slab collection that have been issued in the last 35 years. A 92 Bowman Mariano which worked out OK, and a 99 Bowman Chrome CC which if accounting for inflation has lost value since I purchased it in 2007.
IMHO the best fiscally sound move for long term is to stick with those who weild the bat.
P.S of course to Seaver, Gibson and others have proved to be sound safe in long term but simply nowhere near Ryan or Koufax level of interest.
Please note I do not sell cards. Im sure short term dough can be made by flipping modern Pitchers cards while the iron is hot. Rubes love making bad expenditures over and over...in that type of cycle, buy what you like does not make a smart financial move in any manner whatsoover
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me 2025
Clemens does alright. Randy gets a little love but not much. It's very interesting since Pitchers are the usually pretty darn popular. Skubal, Skenes come to mind as hot.
Which Randy Johnson cards do you think should sell for more than they are now?
Short-Term "Hot". How many of you are glad you held on to Strasberg, Lincecum cards? Verlander and Scherzer are locked 1st ballets HOF's but were they good investments? Good means it must at least match the S&P 500 and beat inflation.
My guess is in the Long term one will be very lucky to recoup, accounting for inflation even 25 cents on the dollar on Skubal, Skenes purchases they are making right now. Even if one of them becomes the next Randy Johnson or Greg Maddux - from a Trading Card investment standpoint -- So What!
Also keep in mind every active Pitcher is always one toss away from TJ surgery. Stick with those who swing lumber
It's the singer not the song - Peter Townshend (1972)
Not even a minute do I buy the whole buh buh buh I'm a man-child japery - Me 2025
89 Fleer Glossy. Although it has come up a bit in last couple years.
155 PSA 10's.
1989 donruss baseball best
1989 score hottest rookies
1989 fleer glossy
1986 minor league - first card
all in psa 10
I don't know much about the prices or the rarity so I appreciate any info. I assumed his cards sold for less because of the overprinting of his RC era. Can you provide a little more info on why you think these are undervalued? Thanks
Fleer Glossy are comparable to the Topps Tiffany cards. Only available in factory sets.
His standard Fleer card is the "Marlboro" error card. Pricing is high on the cards where the word Marlboro is clearly visible on the sign in the background.
1989 Donruss Baseballs Best is undervalued. Only 258 grade a PSA 10
The Baseball's best Griffey has very high gem & mint rates - so does the Johnson at lower total submitted. What do you make of that?
I bought a few of those sets last year. Quality is above average and cards are generally well centered.
I just saw that there were not very many Johnson rookies in a 10.
joe is on it...
I have a Fleer Glossy Griffey rookie being graded right now.
I picked up a set because you pointed out how few Griffey's there were in PSA 10.
I'm hoping to owe you a big "thank you" in a month or so!
At the same time I bought a Johnson rookie already graded on your recommendation and it's gone up in price nicely. The last 2 sold for $450.00 each. Pretty sure I paid $300.00.
Good call!
How many of those sets were produced?