Expensive Dream Coins You Believe Are Undervalued.
DisneyFan
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A lot of us agree that certain expensive relatively common coins are overvalued by the market because of their popularity.
Are there expensive coins with relatively low populations which could make them still undervalued?
While it's tempting not to share this information, on the other hand, these would be expensive coins many are not able to afford.
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I've always had trouble with this concept. The MCMVII High Relief Saint is considered by many here to be "expensive" but also relatively common. But the only way you can get a coin that is expensive is if demand overwhelms supply. You can have some coin with a population of 5 or 50, but if nobody wants it, the price will be close to FV. OTOH, there are thousands of the High Reliefs but lots of non-collectors want them and they tend to be in "strong hands" -- so the price I am told by many here is high and/or "overvalued."
Also, are we going by TOTAL population to judge how common a coin is....or a particular grade (condition rarity) ? That changes the equation.
I would think that some undervalued coins might be in the Morgan Silver Dollar arena....as gold goes higher and higher and the cost to collect gold coins from Quarter Eagles to Double Eagles goes higher, I could see some people who want to collect where there are lots of affordable coins moving to MSDs. Some of the "key" or semi-key dates could move up via the substitution effect of demand moving from gold to silver coins.
Just a thought.
Just about any gold eagle 1858-1873.
Lots of pattern coins have mintages of less than a dozen and sell for half the price of an average high relief $20.
Young Numismatist
I don't believe any US coin is "undervalued" (or overvalued). The market is too large and too mature.
What you're really asking is what coins have the best chance to appreciate in the future. My crystal ball is broken.
I do find it odd, however, that threads like the recent one about the economic decay of the US never seem to conclude that the coin market should collapse as a result. Quite the contrary, they seem to feel that a "hard asset" will do well even though, excepting bullion, coins are a discretionary collectible.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
I don’t know if these are necessarily “dream” coins, but I believe that low CAC stickered population coins may be undervalued in the future once JA retires.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
The US coin market is large and information on pricing is widely available. Undervaluation is not likely.
1922 HR Peace dollars
2000W Sacs
1870cc DEs
1841-o Eagles
1861-D dollars
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
There are a lot of “sleepers” in the 19th century $10 gold series. When I had a chance to see the Eliasberg collection when it was on display at the Philadelphia Mint in 1976. I was surprised to note that very few of the pieces in his $10 Liberty set from 1838 to the 1890s were in Mint State. Eliasberg had access to the best of the best, and he had the funds to pay for it. That indicates that collectors could not afford to set these coins aside when they were issued.
The same applies to the Type I and II $20 gold pieces. Until the SS Central America coins became available, it was almost impossible to get a Choice Mint State Type I $20 gold. With no hoard or recovery coins available, the Type II $20 gold pieces continue to be very scarce in strict Mint State condition.
As prices increase they have to transcend the coin market and cross over into other buyer pools. coins like 1804 dollars are bigger than just the coin collectors. Explosions in price directly correlate to explosions in popularity so look where the chatter is and who is listening
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
The 1873 cc NA 25c (pop 5) sells for roughly what the 1876 cc 20c (pop 18 - 20) sells for. The 20c has better PR, and thus gets a better relative price than the 25c.
I would stay in ones circle of competence.
Though an argument can be made for key dates.
Artributes include... strong for the grade, CAC stickered, attractive, problem free.
My money would be on DMPL Morgans and select VAM's with pop of 50 or less.
They intersect with any number of collector interests.
Moderns are a fun subset of my collecting but undervalued is not a term that applies.
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I have to agree with those who say, "Undervaluation is unlikely.
That's a class I forgot.....Shipwreck Hoards, like the SS Central America. That's a FANTASTIC story and even if the coins don't appreciate you have a nice-looking coin with a great story.
I believe premiums are a fraction for most coins compared to the frenzy of 2000-03 but I'll defer to those who have followed it more closely than me.
Those 2 gold disks in the classified section, just saying
IDK any more... when I first started back into collecting coins some 25 years ago, I'd have thought some of the coins in my current collection would have been unobtainable for me at the time. Fast forward to $3600+/oz gold... $40+/oz silver... I've completed a Type Set that I thought would never get done, and my concentration into Middle-Late Date Large Cents has netted me a far superior collection of copper than I thought possible. Twenty-five years of developing an eye definitely helped.
As far as the OP's question as it relates to my personal collection... I'm just going to stay with what I know. I'll research the last few "trophy coins" I want to incorporate into my Box of 20, and as consulting/contract money comes in... I'll tick those off too.
"Undervalued"? There's no such thing... outside of bullion, something is only worth what someone else is willing to pay, and when it's just a "collectable".... the intrinsic value tends to wax and wane with the economy...
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If time is not a problem I would focus on gold coins that got beat up by Fairmont and are now selling on the cheap.
Always wondered why the 1838-O Half Dollar brings much less than an 1894-S Dime. Now around one half to one third the price.
There are currently 9 known of each. Two circ Good and AG for 1894-S. Two circ XF and AU for 1838-O. One 38-O in Smithsonian with 8 privately held. Apparently no 1894-S in museums.
The 1838-O is 56 years older and has a lot more history being the first 50c from the New Orleans mint.
It is from the first year that mintmarks began.
It is a larger coin, which usually means more interest than a smaller coin.
Both have been called Branch Mint Proofs or Specimen coins.
Guess there was no good story about spending an 1838-O on ice cream.
Some recent price comparisons:
1838-O Half
Nov-2019 $504,000 PR63BM PCGS CAC
Jan-2018 $444,000 PR63BM PCGS CAC (formerly $632,500 in 2008 auction)
May-2016 $493,500 PR64BM PCGS
Aug-2015 $293,750 SP50 PCGS
Jan-2014 $763,750 SP64 NGC CAC
Jan-2013 $734,375 SP64 PCGS
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2013 coin with roster of all known 1838-O
https://coins.ha.com/itm/proof-reeded-edge-half-dollars/1838-o-50c-pr64bm-pcgs/a/1181-5644.s?hdnJumpToLot=1&x=0&y=0
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1894-S 10c
Jan-2025 $2,160,000 PR66BM PCGS CAC
Sep-2020 $1,500,000 PR66BM PCGS
Dec-2020 $1,440,000 PR65BM NGC
Aug-2019 $1,320,000 PR63BM PCGS CAC
Jan-2016 $1,997,500 PR66BM PCGS CAC (same as 2025 coin)
Oct-2007 $1,552,500 PR64 PCGS
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2025 coin with roster of all known 1894-S
https://coins.ha.com/itm/proof-barber-dimes/1894-s-10c-branch-mint-pr66-pcgs-cac/a/1380-4307.s?type=DA-DMC-PCGS-USCoins-1380-01142025
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
If anything classic commemoratives may have their time in the sun again.
A few years ago, you could buy an MS65 J-228 1859 Indian Head Cent (with Shield) for the same and sometimes less than an MS65 regular strike 1859 IHC. I remember buying an MS65 J-228 for about $2100 with a CAC sticker. These prices have changed over the last few years as this coin is considered by many to be part of a complete set now.
I agree with this comment
Yes, this makes a big difference.
All your examples have an above average or substantial "investment" buying, relatively. I don't know how much overlap occurs between the two, but as a collectible, Morgan dollars are definitely not relatively undervalued. It's easily one of the most expensive (and overvalued) series for the collectible attributes along with many gold coins, precisely due to the level of financial related buying. Since we're not discussing financial instruments and there are no comparable metrics, I can't say it won't happen, but the recent run-up in silver should provide some indication.