More silver market frenzy now or with the Hunt Brothers run up?
BLUEJAYWAY
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Seems the Hunts generated more excitement. Thoughts?
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as mentioned in other threads, the inflation adj numbers were much higher then
more frenzy now because a whole lot more players involved.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Sound point. Probably the Internet has furthered it along as well.
A friend told me 40+ years ago to stay away from stores because of the internet. I'm kinda glad I did. Back to silver 🙂
Nobody is buying physical. This is solely paper driven......for now. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
40+ years ago? Pre 1985?? Was your friends name Al Gore by any chance.
RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
Somebody who worked wall street actually, best wishes 😉
Agreed.
IMO, no comparison. In 1980, it was certainly a frenzy... silver was in the news daily and seemed everyone wanted it; lots of full page newspaper ads urgently wanting to buy silver and gold, etc.; many outfits set up in hotel rooms to purchase gold silver and coins. The REAL silver, the physical silver.
Now, silver is certainly moving up, but there is no sense of urgency. At least not yet. And, you can buy PHYSICAL silver at or below melt! The rise in price is likely being paper driven, by larger entities like banks and funds, etc., not by the common man in the street. But certainly can change into a frenzy/panic!
Selling physical silver in a spot run up is a difficult lesson for stackers to learn. The more spot rises, the less buyers.
It would take a national shortage type story to get the hotel room buyers engaged or the spot price would have to normalize on the higher shelf (at least a year) given that past run-ups have all been pump and dumps . In the meantime, hold the physical and trade the paper.
Loves me some shiny!
uhm, you got it backwards. Physical price drives paper demand. Physical price determines paper prices. The higher the physical price, the more paper buyers pay.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
This is no frenzy. I remember the Hunt Brothers and EVERYBODY was talking about it, including people who only collected pocket change.
The Hunt's controlled 1/3rd of the global silver supply.
how much does JPM now control?
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Here's another look at it from the perspective of then/now dollars:
Silver's high in January 1980 was $49.45. The equivalent in today dollars would be $205.92.
Silver's current value is $43.31. The equivalent in January 1980 dollars would have been $10,40.
Imagine the frenzy if silver reached $205.92 now. A single 90% dime would be worth over $13. A single 90% half would be worth over $65.
Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins, justindan, doubleeagle07
Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't no optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.
My mind reader refuses to charge me. . . . . . .
Another metric, the S&P with dividend reinvestment, is up 53x from 1980 to present. silver would need to be at around $2650 today to be worth the equivalent value of the silver high in 1980.
The price in 1980 is really not comparable to the current situation.
Fixed if for you:
A more accurate yard stick is inflation/dollar purchasing power: silver would need to be at around $190 today to be worth the equivalent value of the silver high in 1980. But since that 1980 high is an anomoly created by the Hunt Brothers, a more realist view of silver's purchasing power is it's ability to keep up with inflation for the past twenty years, and it has.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Somewhere around the 1980 high, the DJIA and gold spot were about equal. Gold sold for about 17 silver ounces. Today, the ratio is about 13 gold ounces and slightly over 1,000 silver ounces.
During the next long-term bear market, I expect the gold/DJIA ratio to fall to below one, from a combination of higher gold prices and collapsing share prices.
Yes, I know (virtually) no one expects it. (Virtually) no one would have expected the ratio to increase as it did from 1980 either, peaking at 43 in 1999. The "fundamentals" were overwhelmingly considered negative or unfavorable at the time but are actually far worse now. This will only become evident later, as it always does. "Fundamentals" never appear to be bad at an all-time high.
Oh for sure the Hunt era. I logged back in just to find a forum post like this to say what a snooze fest this run up is. Nobody and I mean nobody on the street has even taken notice yet. Oh sure if you read financial news we all know but the common man/woman is completely out of touch and happy with youtube, snapchat, tiktok, facebook, and etc... young and old.
brothers trying to corner the market would cause a frenzy
No one in my sphere has shown an interest in either "hot" metal run up. A friend of mine who passed a few years ago was into it. He'd of been worked up over the rise.
Very little. I doubt they have more than 0.5% of their capital tied up in PM's in aggregate. Regulators despise risky investments for Tier 1 Capital.
The 1980 ratios will never happen again. They were a confluence of 1-time events: a 40-year price fix on gold....fixed exchange rates going to floating rates...record inflation....deregulated financial markets......bond and equity markets and exchanges (options, CBOE, CME, etc.) in their infancy.
But the S&P contributes to real GDP growth and the companies which comprise it are worth more....are better run....and are more productive.
Silver is still silver.
google says 650-700 million silver ounces controlled by JPM
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
In terms of the run up, the 1980 Hunt Bros. silver mania was bigger. People were literally running into coin shops to buy bullion, or sell the silverware if they thought it was a bubble. The silver coin market went through the roof too. Since there was no internet, it was a lot of independent metals dealers, jewelers etc who simply hoarded and asked higher than high prices. It worked.
It might be interesting to get a copy of a Coin Age or Coin World magazine to see what the ads were like.
Here is an interesting YouTube video on it.
The Original Silver Squeeze - the true story of the Hunt brothers
https://youtu.be/VXGxJk2gF4k?si=7pmZczneFWLUxsG0 via @YouTube
Yes, you've told me all this before, except that prices don't have anything to do with any of that.
650,000,000 troy ounce in tons is 22,285.71 tons
and that's 67,996.74 cubic feet
open interest is about 133421 x 5000 = 667,105,000 troy
the estimate is high. they'd have to tie up all open interest
trading in and out of a position that day does affect open interest and what someone controls
JPM is custodian for/controls SLV (and GLD) and holds a lot of silver they own outright.Their vault, said to be the largest in the world, is 90 feet below NY streets and is said to be adjacent to and possibly connected to the FED's underground vault.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
I don't know bout JPM, I banked with them for a brief period back in the day, but I do love being heavy in the SLV. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
So, your SLV silver is in the hands of JPM inside their vault? Tell them you'd like to schedule a visit to see it. LOL
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
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SLV is an electronic proxy and is NOT a certificate for any actual silver. So the weight of SLV is literally -0- .
This is because you can not trade in your SLV shares for actual silver.
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I'll simply click a button and that's the end of story. Meanwhile the bunker crew will be breaking their backs trying to transport it to the LCS who will be waiting and willing to offer up a sob story with lowball offer to follow. My physical AU? No worries, extremely simple to carry. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
In the 1980s there was an huge supply of silver accumulated that could be converted to melt. Today a huge factor is stainless steel has replaced sterling silver products which has resulted in the masses having less silver to sell for melt.