More silver market frenzy now or with the Hunt Brothers run up?

more frenzy now because a whole lot more players involved.

@johnny9434 said:

@BLUEJAYWAY said:

@derryb said:
more frenzy now because a whole lot more players involved.

Sound point. Probably the Internet has furthered it along as well.

A friend told me 40+ years ago to stay away from stores because of the internet. I'm kinda glad I did. Back to silver 🙂

40+ years ago? Pre 1985?? Was your friends name Al Gore by any chance. RGDS!

@blitzdude said:
Nobody is buying physical. This is solely paper driven......for now. THKS!

Agreed.

IMO, no comparison. In 1980, it was certainly a frenzy... silver was in the news daily and seemed everyone wanted it; lots of full page newspaper ads urgently wanting to buy silver and gold, etc.; many outfits set up in hotel rooms to purchase gold silver and coins. The REAL silver, the physical silver.

Now, silver is certainly moving up, but there is no sense of urgency. At least not yet. And, you can buy PHYSICAL silver at or below melt! The rise in price is likely being paper driven, by larger entities like banks and funds, etc., not by the common man in the street. But certainly can change into a frenzy/panic!

@blitzdude said:
Nobody is buying physical. This is solely paper driven......for now. THKS!

uhm, you got it backwards. Physical price drives paper demand. Physical price determines paper prices. The higher the physical price, the more paper buyers pay.

@GoldFinger1969 said:
This is no frenzy. I remember the Hunt Brothers and EVERYBODY was talking about it, including people who only collected pocket change.

The Hunt's controlled 1/3rd of the global silver supply.

how much does JPM now control?

Another metric, the S&P with dividend reinvestment, is up 53x from 1980 to present. silver would need to be at around $2650 today to be worth the equivalent value of the silver high in 1980.

The price in 1980 is really not comparable to the current situation.

Somewhere around the 1980 high, the DJIA and gold spot were about equal. Gold sold for about 17 silver ounces. Today, the ratio is about 13 gold ounces and slightly over 1,000 silver ounces.

During the next long-term bear market, I expect the gold/DJIA ratio to fall to below one, from a combination of higher gold prices and collapsing share prices.

Yes, I know (virtually) no one expects it. (Virtually) no one would have expected the ratio to increase as it did from 1980 either, peaking at 43 in 1999. The "fundamentals" were overwhelmingly considered negative or unfavorable at the time but are actually far worse now. This will only become evident later, as it always does. "Fundamentals" never appear to be bad at an all-time high.

@derryb said:
how much does JPM now control?

Very little. I doubt they have more than 0.5% of their capital tied up in PM's in aggregate. Regulators despise risky investments for Tier 1 Capital.

@nags said:
Another metric, the S&P with dividend reinvestment, is up 53x from 1980 to present. silver would need to be at >around $2650 today to be worth the equivalent value of the silver high in 1980.
The price in 1980 is really not comparable to the current situation.

But the S&P contributes to real GDP growth and the companies which comprise it are worth more....are better run....and are more productive.

Silver is still silver.

In terms of the run up, the 1980 Hunt Bros. silver mania was bigger. People were literally running into coin shops to buy bullion, or sell the silverware if they thought it was a bubble. The silver coin market went through the roof too. Since there was no internet, it was a lot of independent metals dealers, jewelers etc who simply hoarded and asked higher than high prices. It worked.

It might be interesting to get a copy of a Coin Age or Coin World magazine to see what the ads were like.

Here is an interesting YouTube video on it.

The Original Silver Squeeze - the true story of the Hunt brothers https://youtu.be/VXGxJk2gF4k?si=7pmZczneFWLUxsG0 via @YouTube

@MsMorrisine said:

@derryb said:
google says 650-700 million silver ounces controlled by JPM

650,000,000 troy ounce in tons is 22,285.71 tons

and that's 67,996.74 cubic feet

JPM is custodian for/controls SLV (and GLD) and holds a lot of silver they own outright.Their vault, said to be the largest in the world, is 90 feet below NY streets and is said to be adjacent to and possibly connected to the FED's underground vault.

@blitzdude said:

I don't know bout JPM, I banked with them for a brief period back in the day, but I do love being heavy in the SLV. RGDS!

So, your SLV silver is in the hands of JPM inside their vault? Tell them you'd like to schedule a visit to see it. LOL

@derryb said:

@blitzdude said:

I don't know bout JPM, I banked with them for a brief period back in the day, but I do love being heavy in the SLV. RGDS!

So, your SLV silver is in the hands of JPM inside their vault? Tell them you'd like to schedule a visit to see it. LOL

I'll simply click a button and that's the end of story. Meanwhile the bunker crew will be breaking their backs trying to transport it to the LCS who will be waiting and willing to offer up a sob story with lowball offer to follow. My physical AU? No worries, extremely simple to carry. RGDS!

@tincup said:

@blitzdude said:
Nobody is buying physical. This is solely paper driven......for now. THKS!

Agreed.

IMO, no comparison. In 1980, it was certainly a frenzy... silver was in the news daily and seemed everyone wanted it; lots of full page newspaper ads urgently wanting to buy silver and gold, etc.; many outfits set up in hotel rooms to purchase gold silver and coins. The REAL silver, the physical silver.

Now, silver is certainly moving up, but there is no sense of urgency. At least not yet. And, you can buy PHYSICAL silver at or below melt! The rise in price is likely being paper driven, by larger entities like banks and funds, etc., not by the common man in the street. But certainly can change into a frenzy/panic!

It certainly was a frenzy back then,and I recall all the ads.I recal an ad in the local buy/sell/tradein the small town wher I lived at the time with an offer to trade a Browning Medalist pistol-which I had always wanted-for $25 face pre '64 silver. I had about half that in a jar and being in my early 20's I din't have close enough to make up the difference being bucks down with my belt buckle scraping my backbone, and had to walk away. Years later I did come across another and purchased it. I thought about that a lot when silver was going for 3X face arount 2000.

@derryb said:

@blitzdude said:

@derryb said:

@blitzdude said:

I don't know bout JPM, I banked with them for a brief period back in the day, but I do love being heavy in the SLV. RGDS!

So, your SLV silver is in the hands of JPM inside their vault? Tell them you'd like to schedule a visit to see it. LOL

I'll simply click a button and that's the end of story.

And when the button won't click?

Guess I would have to phone in to broker the old school way. THKS!

@GoldFinger1969 said:

Last I checked (I invest in small-cap banks, not large-caps) JP Morgan had about $350 billion in equity capital. No way they have 10% or $35 billion in silver -- Jamie Dimon would be fired by the regulators.

more likely that JD hires and fires regulators.

@GoldFinger1969 said:

@derryb said:
more likely that JD hires and fires regulators.

You're just making stuff up.

they seem to be in his pocket every time Department of Justice comes after JPM. DOJ takes a cut (their fine) and every thing goes back to the way it was. Futures market spoofing is a perfect example.

Note this was a criminal case that was settled with no person being held accountable. Just one of many similar cases JPM has gone through over the years: Government makes a case, then settles taking a cut of what JPM ripped off from others and no bank executive is held accountable. It's a money maker for DOJ, and just another write off expense for JPM.

@Wingsrule said:
Many, many cases against large corporations are ‘settled’ without admitting guilt, “we didn’t do it but wanted to avoid the cost of a lengthy court case “. Pay a fine and move on…

We're not talking about a "one off." With JPM it has been repetitive, same offense, same result, no convictions. A money machine for DOJ and just a minor expense (with huge profits) for JPM. They control spot prices more than any other bullion bank.

@MsMorrisine said:
in a foolish term, i imagine when controlled is used it is the futures speak for owning a contract

a contract does not move the market, lots and lots of them do. Bullion banks deal only lots and lots of contracts. The one buying or selling the most contracts controls the price.

@MsMorrisine said:
it's a foolish term because, as owner of a wheat contract, you can't tell someone to move it from delivery point to north dakota for ya... just in case... you do control it right?

but

that is the term they use when you have a contract. i think a contract of oil controls 125,000 barrels of oil

a foolish term to me

it takes a lot of contracts to put a dent in the price. Bullion banks hold most of the PM contracts and between them they move price. Some of them have been charged by DOJ with making bids they don't intend to fullfill (spoofing, just to move the price), which is illegal.

The real frenzy will begin at $50. Higher daily moves will be a result.

There certainly seems to be something in motion... the major entities that are doing the buying likely have fore knowledge of a change coming up and are preparing for it. Whether a federal re-pricing of gold, devaluation of dollar, replacement of dollar, inflation, etc., etc., I am not in the know... since I missed the meeting where the strategy was discussed!

But... it would be prudent to pay attention to which direction the wind is blowing. Place your bets as you see fit.