Who is Jackson Chourio? Explaining the logic behind and ripple effects of the Brewers’ record.....
stevek
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Who is Jackson Chourio? Explaining the logic behind and ripple effects of the Brewers’ record-setting deal with their top prospect
"Chourio, who is just 19 and spent most of 2023 in Double-A, agreed to an eight-year, $82 million deal with the Brewers on Sunday."
Sports team owners are among the smartest people on the planet, so they must know what they're doing? 🤔
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It's an expensive scratch ticket nothing more nothing less.
8 years at 82 million might be a bargain if this kid lives up to the hype, at the end of the contract he will be 28, if he is a Juan Soto hyped up guy who puts up ok numbers then this deal will sound great and honestly the kid might have left a lot of money on the table
I know two guys who played in the minor leagues. One was signed by the Reds as a pitcher, another signed by the Mets as a catcher.
The one signed by the Reds was on my high school team, a grade ahead of me. We used to notice the scouts at the games.
He used to throw batting practice, perhaps at 3/4 speed, and I still couldn't hit him. He threw two no hitters during his senior year season.
I wasn't friends with him, so I lost track of him. But at the local tavern where "everyone" from my school used to hang out, his friends would go there to. I'd ask them how he's doing and long story short, he never made it to the majors.
The catcher is a good customer of mine, and we talk sports almost every time he places an order. He's talked a little bit about his minor league career, but not that much considering that's the thing I find the most interesting about him. He doesn't seem to like talking about his minor league experience.
Well I only bring this up because both are listed on the baseball stats website, so I can see exactly how their minor league careers went. Both of them did fairly well at AA, but in AAA, they didn't perform very well.
It's tough enough to go from AA to AAA, and even tougher still to go from AAA to the bigs. So in my view, the Brewers are taking quite a gamble with this fat contract on a kid from AA, no matter how good he seems to be.
We shall see how it all works out. Sports owners are smart people, Einstein level, so they are probably right giving the kid money such as this. He's probably a first ballot MLB Hall of Famer. 😐
Considering the cumulative salaries of players after 8 years in the major leagues, that even only played in an All-Star Game or 2 and only had a top 5 MVP season or 2, factoring in the expected inflation of salaries, and the present value of the money required to fund such a commitment, and I would venture to say that making that deal now is very team friendly.
If the player doesn't pan out and is just a serviceable bench guy or 4-A type player, then the team would have still had to pay him probably 15-20 million or more over the life of his first 8 years anyway, so they're out the equivalent of a bad free agent pitcher signing.
If this guy is a star, then it's an absolute bargain as they're essentially getting years 7 and 8 for free, not even considering present value of the money.
Some might quibble with the fast and loose math, but the idea is correct.
Owners didn't become billionaires by being stupid with how to think about money, in both the present and the future.
His stats are listed at the baseball stats website. Sure he's good, but I just don't see $82 million good. I guess the Brewers figure at 19 years old, he has potentially much room for improvement.
Notice that he does strike out a lot. Not a good sign for when he faces MLB pitching with their brutal sliders, etc.
Owners didn't become billionaires by being stupid with how to think about money, in both the present and the future.
None of those owners made their money running a baseball team. For the most part it is the GMs that come up with these contracts and the GMs are most certainly not smart about present and future value of money. Heck, most GMs can't even predict relative success of the players they are signing to contracts.
As for the contract itself, I think what the Braves do makes more sense. Atlanta sees how the player does in the majors and then signs them to a lucrative extension that is below market value if the player continues to develop. Lots of top prospects don't pan out and I don't think the Brewers have a long history of homegrown star outfielders. Doesn't mean the contract won't work out for them but seems riskier than necessary IMO.
Robb
If the kid becomes an all-star type player, he will have his contract reworked with several years to go. Otherwise, he counts down the days until he becomes a free agent.
http://www.unisquare.com/store/brick/
Ralph
I agree with Perk, this is very simply a lottery ticket. He could very easily be another rusney castillo.
sox paid him 72 MM and he only played a few dozen games in MLB
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Sometimes the more ya look at something, the better it seems?
Not this time, the more I look at this, the worse it seems.
Not that I blame the kid. I wish him good luck. Hey, if somebody offered me crazy money like that for doing something legal, I'd gladly take it. Maybe even something slightly illegal. 😂
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That's a sarcastic remark .........right?
Its not the NFL. Contracts dont get reworked in baseball.
He could have the greatest seasons of all time and his salary is locked in other than any potential bonuses he might have in the contract for winning awards
Fire AJ Preller
Even if hes just good it will save them a bunch of money, they have two options years for 25 mil a year too which would be years 9 and 10. If hes very good he would make well over 50 million in his 4 arbitration years alone.
Hes 19 having success in Triple A and now that hes locked up will probably open the year in MLB. A lot of teams are trying to strong arm their top prospects into these types of deals in order to call them up
These days barring injury its rare for prospects ranked that high to be misses
Fire AJ Preller
I hear ya, but perhaps "can't miss" is in the eye of the beholder. 😉
We shall see how the kid does, and perhaps revisit this thread in a few years. Then maybe you can say to me, stevek you'd make a lousy talent scout. 😑
Obviously theres no such thing as a cant miss as careers can get derailed or ended from injuries, poor decisions leading to prison, drugs etc.
As far as pure talent his talent is the cant miss type. To crack the top 5 prospects in all of baseball thats elite territory. Thats where youire talking about guys like Tatis Jr, Vladdy Jr, Acuna Jr, Bryce Harper types.
Whats even more impressive is that he managed to stay in the top 5 even after this years draft. Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes from LSU are such elite prospects that as soon as they signed their professional contracts they were ranked in the top 5 prospects by many lists while others had them in the top 10 which never happens. He still managed to stay up there even with two elite talents being added.
Once theyre in the top `0 and especially the top 5 thats all the rating systems saying theyre either already able to play in the pros or will be ready to in a year
It was a good move by Milwaukee. If he hits all his incentives and everything else his contract maxes out at 142.5 million over 10 years. Out of the 8 years 82 million base of it he doesnt even make over 10 million a year until 2029 and over half the total money is in the final three years with would have been his final arbitration years and two free agent years.
As long as hes not bad its a good deal for the team. Teams were paying Jackie Bradly Jr more than what hes making in all but the final two years of the contract
Fire AJ Preller
Remember I never said the kid may not have value. Whether he winds up with as much value as he's being paid, I doubt it.
The top 5 employees at a McDonalds have value. Should the top employee be paid $100 an hour? I doubt it, unless some how he cooks up one yelluva tasty burger. 🍔
Theres billions of people that could be a great employee at McDonalds, Less than 0.01 percent even make it pro
I think youre over estimating maybe even drastically what he has to do for it to be a good contract for the team. He can be average and its still a good contract.
He just has to not be bad. Anything more than average starts getting into a very good if not great contract for the team
Fire AJ Preller
2 years later how is this one working out?
The Brewers organization must be doing something very right. Their scouting hits at such a high percentage that I don’t believe the lottery ticket adage applies here.
And thanks to Baseball21 for calling out the Brewers as “not a really good team” this season. Sometimes it just takes one egotistical know-it-all to pump some positive energy into the equation.
Having an ownership group in MKE which invests so much into facilities and player development has made the past decade-plus such a delight as a Brewer’s fan. I would rather develop players than sign the biggest name on the market - which hits far less often than bets on young talent do. Smallest market in MLB with the highest per-capita market valuation in MLB. This is how small-market clubs compete and sustain success in MLB.
From AI:
"The Milwaukee Brewers have never won the World Series. Their only World Series appearance was in 1982, where they lost to the St. Louis Cardinals. They are one of five MLB teams to have never won a World Series."
If this is doing something very right, I'd hate to see what is doing something very wrong. LOL
Also:
LA Dodgers +240
Philadelphia Phillies +800
NY Yankees +950
Detroit Tigers +1000
NY Mets +1000
Toronto Blue Jays +1200
Chicago Cubs +1300
Houston Astros +1300
Milwaukee Brewers +1600
For the Brewers to be leading their division by 2 games, and having the best record in MLB thus far, the bookies sure aren't giving them much love. We all know what that usually means when odds look too good to be true. Bookies aren't in the habit of giving money away.
As for the kid, so far he has done well, better than I expected. Was he worth the 82 million? Not yet, we shall see about that as time goes by.
That’s one way to look at it but the Brewers organization has been one of the most successful franchises in MLB over the past decade. While they don’t have a World Series title to show for it yet they’ve won the division 6 of the past 7 seasons. That to me is sustained success and demonstrative of an organization that has cultivated a winning culture in Milwaukee even when they are consistently in the bottom quarter of MLB payrolls. That consistent success gives them a chance in the playoffs that many other teams don’t get.
I am well aware that they have not ever won a World Series and they may not win one in my lifetime. I still enjoy every season even if the bookies don’t show them any love. That said, I don’t even know if bookies exist anymore. Sports betting odds are driven by algorithms developed using quantitative modeling. You probably have to go back a decade or more to find a team that won a WS playing with pitching and defense - Giants would be my guess. But the Crew also leads the majors in run differential and that’s going to earn them some odds if they keep playing how they are.
As for Chourio he’s earning his salary and much more so far. He came up big when the Brewers swept the Phillies earlier this year.
Also. “Generative AI” is not artificial intelligence. It’s pulling information from what is found on the internet and using Markov chains to create a more concise synopsis.
Regarding sports betting…. That seems to be a foolish endeavor. I’m not declaring that gamblers are necessarily fools though as I can see the excitement around betting. What I mean is that it seems like the system is a bit rigged against gamblers. This also isn’t to say that anyone has the odds wrong regarding the Brewers. I couldn’t care less what the odds are.
Can't disagree with anything you stated.
Definitely sports betting is fool's folly if ya do it too often, and for too much money ya can't afford to lose. Sadly too many sports bettors do just that.
However with all these computers making the decisions on odds, a sharp disciplined bettor may have a chance, if they see something the computer may not see. But ya have to be careful with that as well. An "angle" you find may be working like a charm, and ya think you've discovered the holy grail, then for whatever reason it stops working.
All that being said, for example the last info I've seen on the spread, historically on football games. The bookies line on dogs hit 50.1% of the time, and the favorites hit 49.9 % of the time. Almost a coin flip. That remarkable consistency can't be denied. So the bookie odds while of course not definitive of an outcome, are without question an indication.
My opinion if ya see something like the Brewers odds as mentioned, and it seems to be a great bet at 16-1 odds, based on the fact they now have the best record in MLB. Then something is wrong as far as believing that's a holy grail type wager with those juicy odds. Frankly, virtually always it's just the opposite. To me those odds look way too juicy.
Hey good luck with the Brewers this season. I always like to see a team like that get their first ring. So if the Phillies can't get there, I wouldn't mind at all seeing the Brewers win their first one.
The Brewers mopped the floor with the Dodgers not too long ago. I live in mortal fear of the team, their manager and their run of destructive pummeling of inferior teams. Who are these guys??? As a Cubs fan I could mumble some shtick about how they won a World Series, but that's ancient history. It feels like the Brew owns the Cubs the same way Favre, then Rodgers and Green Bay owned the Bears. Even with Chourio sidelined they continue to win. Pardon me for saying so, but I despise the Brewers.
Farewell Ryno.
Cubs - Brewers is a well-matched rivalry right now. This upcoming 5-game series is going to be fun to watch. Reality check for the Brewers.
I mean, I hear what you’re saying about Milwaukee’s success in recent years, but don’t forget that they play in a 4 team division so the odds are definitely in their favor.
Signed,
Struggling Pirate fan
Jim
if my declining memory serves me correctly, i believe Chourio was the Brewer whom St Louis had a hell of a time getting out last summer when i saw them play a 3-game set
dude can hit
you'll never be able to outrun a bad diet
I was a fan through the Selig years so I can at the very least empathize.
They. Cannot. Lose. My G-D and WTFFFFF???? Never mind the shuffling of relievers all over who knows where. I watch Trevor Megill and the dude seems possessed. If he keeps up this vintage lockdown closer crap, you can write it down now. The Milwaukee Brewers are going to the World Series. Sheesh.
Farewell Ryno.
Someone is messing with the simulation for sure.
Fun fact as the Crew has 12 runs with 1 out in the 6th. For the second straight meeting with Skenes the Brewers have put 4 earned runs on him and 9 total across 3 starts. 9 of his 35 earned runs in 3 of his 25 starts. I believe the Cubs are the only other team to get 4 earned runs against Skenes this season.
1.75 ERA for Skenes in every start against a team other than the Brewers. Include those and he’s at 2.13. 5.75 ERA in 3 starts against Milwaukee.
It's the Year of the Beer now. I'm impressed. They couldn't possibly screw this up, could they? They're wallowing in confidence.
Farewell Ryno.
Brewers pre-season odds to win the World Series was 40-1
Now at 9-1
Continue to roll or peaking too soon? We shall see.
MLB has always been a game of streaks. Has been for over 100 years.
The key to a WS championship is gaining momentum and getting hot near post season time, heading into the post season.
Brewers sure look pretty right now. But will they look pretty towards the end of September is the question?
I think they will. Almost the entire team is having a career year. It's crazy. The closest team to them in terms of talent and the right pieces in the right places would be Philly. An NLCS with those 2 teams would be pretty fun to watch. Of course, my opinion is based on the here and now. An injury here or losing streak there could change a lot. But I don't see that happening.
Farewell Ryno.
I’m eager to see myself. Regardless it’s been a fun season to watch.
Pasted from AI
"In the preseason before their "Miracle Mets" season in 1969, the New York Mets had odds of 100-to-1 to win the World Series"
I can think of some other MLB championship teams who had to be pre-season long shots, and got there. So the Brewers certainly have a chance.
"nearest George Webb" is trending.
Mmmmm. Burger.
Farewell Ryno.
Trading for Jimmie Foxx on June 13 turned out to be their best move of all. Will see how long that continues.
The way the Brewers are scoring runs, the thrown baseballs to their batters must look like beachballs it's so easy.
Vaughn has been a great add-on, especially with both Hoskins and Bauers on the IL, but I think the best pick-up in '25 was Quinn Priester from the Red Sox for next to nothing.
Astonishing. They were down 8-1 in the 3rd inning to Cincy, shrugged their shoulders and said "Eh. We got this." Geez. 13 in a row.
Farewell Ryno.
I think Milwaukee is shooting their wad a little too early.
On one hand you want to be on fire going into postseason baseball…. But. You also win the games in front of you. While these past 13 games may have been premature immaculation, as you say, it’s been a blast to watch.
With the below odds, the bookies seem to agree with you.
Considering the Brewers outstanding 77-44 record thus far, and their current lusty 13 game winning streak, it still appears that the bookies aren't giving the Brewers the love that you'd think they should be getting. Usually that's not a good sign. But of course "usually" does not mean always.
Who will turn out to be right? We shall see.
World Series 2025 Winner:
Los Angeles Dodgers
+350
Philadelphia Phillies
+650
Milwaukee Brewers
+800
Seattle Mariners
+950
Detroit Tigers
+1000
Toronto Blue Jays
+1000
San Diego Padres
+1100
Houston Astros
+1200
New York Yankees
+1200
The safest position to take is that they both won’t keep this up and that they will not win the World Series. The record they’re building now only helps to get the opportunity.
None of the odds mean anything right now.
They aren't the best team despite having the best record. They are playing above their heads. If Misiorowski is a full green light in the playoffs then they have a formidable top three and they can contend with anyone. Their offense is suspect tho and ultimately that may be their downfall.
+800 seems a little lofty for any playoff team. +350 for anyone at this point. Who thinks the Dodgers have better than a 1 in 4 change to win the WS?? That’s not realistic. These odds are serving a purpose but it’s not to present realistic probabilities.
Plus 800 would be 1/8 which is 12.5%. That’s crazy. Dodgers are +350?? 28.5%! Wow. That seems like a suckers bet. I don’t know too much about sports books but I assume they are balancing the bets and they take a slice of the probability for themselves. So I assume the percents are a little lower than the line.
Bad news for the Phillies. Oof.
No, the bookies juice on that is a lot higher than the regular game betting line. My guess is the juice is around 15 or 20 percent. So the true odds of the Brewers winning the WS is actually around 10-1.
14 wins in a row? Who do the Brewers think they are, the 1927 Yankees? 😉
Well what are ya gonna do. Hopefully he's back as soon as possible.
Probably if not definitely caused by the covid vaccine. I'm so glad I never got that dam jab, and of course not the boosters. .
It’s a tough loss. Hopefully he can avoid surgery.
I watched last night’s game. It’s not even funny anymore, how they win. Their manager is an evil genius. Pat Murphy isn’t smiling. He has this smirky look on his face like he knows nobody is gonna touch these guys. They were supposed to lose and the Reds just kept on handing it back. 🫣
Farewell Ryno.