Who is Jackson Chourio? Explaining the logic behind and ripple effects of the Brewers’ record.....
stevek
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Who is Jackson Chourio? Explaining the logic behind and ripple effects of the Brewers’ record-setting deal with their top prospect
"Chourio, who is just 19 and spent most of 2023 in Double-A, agreed to an eight-year, $82 million deal with the Brewers on Sunday."
Sports team owners are among the smartest people on the planet, so they must know what they're doing? 🤔
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It's an expensive scratch ticket nothing more nothing less.
8 years at 82 million might be a bargain if this kid lives up to the hype, at the end of the contract he will be 28, if he is a Juan Soto hyped up guy who puts up ok numbers then this deal will sound great and honestly the kid might have left a lot of money on the table
I know two guys who played in the minor leagues. One was signed by the Reds as a pitcher, another signed by the Mets as a catcher.
The one signed by the Reds was on my high school team, a grade ahead of me. We used to notice the scouts at the games.
He used to throw batting practice, perhaps at 3/4 speed, and I still couldn't hit him. He threw two no hitters during his senior year season.
I wasn't friends with him, so I lost track of him. But at the local tavern where "everyone" from my school used to hang out, his friends would go there to. I'd ask them how he's doing and long story short, he never made it to the majors.
The catcher is a good customer of mine, and we talk sports almost every time he places an order. He's talked a little bit about his minor league career, but not that much considering that's the thing I find the most interesting about him. He doesn't seem to like talking about his minor league experience.
Well I only bring this up because both are listed on the baseball stats website, so I can see exactly how their minor league careers went. Both of them did fairly well at AA, but in AAA, they didn't perform very well.
It's tough enough to go from AA to AAA, and even tougher still to go from AAA to the bigs. So in my view, the Brewers are taking quite a gamble with this fat contract on a kid from AA, no matter how good he seems to be.
We shall see how it all works out. Sports owners are smart people, Einstein level, so they are probably right giving the kid money such as this. He's probably a first ballot MLB Hall of Famer. 😐
Considering the cumulative salaries of players after 8 years in the major leagues, that even only played in an All-Star Game or 2 and only had a top 5 MVP season or 2, factoring in the expected inflation of salaries, and the present value of the money required to fund such a commitment, and I would venture to say that making that deal now is very team friendly.
If the player doesn't pan out and is just a serviceable bench guy or 4-A type player, then the team would have still had to pay him probably 15-20 million or more over the life of his first 8 years anyway, so they're out the equivalent of a bad free agent pitcher signing.
If this guy is a star, then it's an absolute bargain as they're essentially getting years 7 and 8 for free, not even considering present value of the money.
Some might quibble with the fast and loose math, but the idea is correct.
Owners didn't become billionaires by being stupid with how to think about money, in both the present and the future.
His stats are listed at the baseball stats website. Sure he's good, but I just don't see $82 million good. I guess the Brewers figure at 19 years old, he has potentially much room for improvement.
Notice that he does strike out a lot. Not a good sign for when he faces MLB pitching with their brutal sliders, etc.
Owners didn't become billionaires by being stupid with how to think about money, in both the present and the future.
None of those owners made their money running a baseball team. For the most part it is the GMs that come up with these contracts and the GMs are most certainly not smart about present and future value of money. Heck, most GMs can't even predict relative success of the players they are signing to contracts.
As for the contract itself, I think what the Braves do makes more sense. Atlanta sees how the player does in the majors and then signs them to a lucrative extension that is below market value if the player continues to develop. Lots of top prospects don't pan out and I don't think the Brewers have a long history of homegrown star outfielders. Doesn't mean the contract won't work out for them but seems riskier than necessary IMO.
Robb
If the kid becomes an all-star type player, he will have his contract reworked with several years to go. Otherwise, he counts down the days until he becomes a free agent.
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Ralph
I agree with Perk, this is very simply a lottery ticket. He could very easily be another rusney castillo.
sox paid him 72 MM and he only played a few dozen games in MLB
George Brett, Roger Clemens and Tommy Brady.
Sometimes the more ya look at something, the better it seems?
Not this time, the more I look at this, the worse it seems.
Not that I blame the kid. I wish him good luck. Hey, if somebody offered me crazy money like that for doing something legal, I'd gladly take it. Maybe even something slightly illegal. 😂
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That's a sarcastic remark .........right?
Its not the NFL. Contracts dont get reworked in baseball.
He could have the greatest seasons of all time and his salary is locked in other than any potential bonuses he might have in the contract for winning awards
Missouri 14 OSU 3
Even if hes just good it will save them a bunch of money, they have two options years for 25 mil a year too which would be years 9 and 10. If hes very good he would make well over 50 million in his 4 arbitration years alone.
Hes 19 having success in Triple A and now that hes locked up will probably open the year in MLB. A lot of teams are trying to strong arm their top prospects into these types of deals in order to call them up
These days barring injury its rare for prospects ranked that high to be misses
Missouri 14 OSU 3
I hear ya, but perhaps "can't miss" is in the eye of the beholder. 😉
We shall see how the kid does, and perhaps revisit this thread in a few years. Then maybe you can say to me, stevek you'd make a lousy talent scout. 😑
Obviously theres no such thing as a cant miss as careers can get derailed or ended from injuries, poor decisions leading to prison, drugs etc.
As far as pure talent his talent is the cant miss type. To crack the top 5 prospects in all of baseball thats elite territory. Thats where youire talking about guys like Tatis Jr, Vladdy Jr, Acuna Jr, Bryce Harper types.
Whats even more impressive is that he managed to stay in the top 5 even after this years draft. Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes from LSU are such elite prospects that as soon as they signed their professional contracts they were ranked in the top 5 prospects by many lists while others had them in the top 10 which never happens. He still managed to stay up there even with two elite talents being added.
Once theyre in the top `0 and especially the top 5 thats all the rating systems saying theyre either already able to play in the pros or will be ready to in a year
It was a good move by Milwaukee. If he hits all his incentives and everything else his contract maxes out at 142.5 million over 10 years. Out of the 8 years 82 million base of it he doesnt even make over 10 million a year until 2029 and over half the total money is in the final three years with would have been his final arbitration years and two free agent years.
As long as hes not bad its a good deal for the team. Teams were paying Jackie Bradly Jr more than what hes making in all but the final two years of the contract
Missouri 14 OSU 3
Remember I never said the kid may not have value. Whether he winds up with as much value as he's being paid, I doubt it.
The top 5 employees at a McDonalds have value. Should the top employee be paid $100 an hour? I doubt it, unless some how he cooks up one yelluva tasty burger. 🍔
Theres billions of people that could be a great employee at McDonalds, Less than 0.01 percent even make it pro
I think youre over estimating maybe even drastically what he has to do for it to be a good contract for the team. He can be average and its still a good contract.
He just has to not be bad. Anything more than average starts getting into a very good if not great contract for the team
Missouri 14 OSU 3