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Losses For Proof Red Copper Tonight At GC

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  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,997 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Crypto: Your thesis may be spot on that the absence of just 1 or 2 major players may create meaningful corrections in the top pop coins - both classic and modern. And, for that matter, meaningful potential opportunities for buyers until such time as new whales surface. In your example, you discuss 66RD coins at $1k, but, a better comparison might be the 67RD coins (which are not a dime a dozen) and often trade in the $3k - $3.5k range (especially for nice examples). PCGS has graded around 3,600 RED examples of this coin number in all Mint state grades, but less than 100 coins in superb gem 67 grade. And, just a fraction of those coins with the CAC sticker. I can see the future is likely bright for there to be at least 100 serious collectors of major variety Lincoln cents desiring a 67RD specimen. And, the nicer quality 67 grade coins will be even more in demand.

    But, an interesting question is what should the less than 1 dozen (out of 3,600+) top of the line specimens trade for at this time? It isn’t a great stretch to me that the (10) MS67+ coins have a value close to, or in excess of, the current P.G. level of $9,000. Indeed, my max bid tonight was in excess of full P.G. not even counting the B.P. And, above those (10) MS67+ coins is a single MS68RD. I can only imagine what that might auction at even with a whale or two missing from the auction.

    So, I’m not exactly sure what the recent “correction” in these Lincoln cent top pops is signaling. It could be many things, including possibly players temporarily redirecting their assets into Bitcoin at record levels.

    Just my 2 cents.

    Wondercoin

    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • seatedlib3991seatedlib3991 Posts: 1,095 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I will only add an old saying . "One coin does not define an entire market." James
    P.S. Congrats on getting a coin you so obviously desired.

  • CryptoCrypto Posts: 3,867 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @Crypto said:

    @wondercoin said:
    Crypto: Your thesis may be spot on that the absence of just 1 or 2 major players may create meaningful corrections in the top pop coins - both classic and modern. And, for that matter, meaningful potential opportunities for buyers until such time as new whales surface. In your example, you discuss 66RD coins at $1k, but, a better comparison might be the 67RD coins (which are not a dime a dozen) and often trade in the $3k - $3.5k range (especially for nice examples). PCGS has graded around 3,600 RED examples of this coin number in all Mint state grades, but less than 100 coins in superb gem 67 grade. And, just a fraction of those coins with the CAC sticker. I can see the future is likely bright for there to be at least 100 serious collectors of major variety Lincoln cents desiring a 67RD specimen. And, the nicer quality 67 grade coins will be even more in demand.

    But, an interesting question is what should the less than 1 dozen (out of 3,600+) top of the line specimens trade for at this time? It isn’t a great stretch to me that the (10) MS67+ coins have a value close to, or in excess of, the current P.G. level of $9,000. Indeed, my max bid tonight was in excess of full P.G. not even counting the B.P. And, above those (10) MS67+ coins is a single MS68RD. I can only imagine what that might auction at even with a whale or two missing from the auction.

    So, I’m not exactly sure what the recent “correction” in these Lincoln cent top pops is signaling. It could be many things, including possibly players temporarily redirecting their assets into Bitcoin at record levels.

    Just my 2 cents.

    Wondercoin

    Your points make perfect sense from a supply and demand perspective based on plastic availability. you have forgotten more about the top pop market than I will ever know.

    With that said for it to make sense to me a grumpy collector (using your example) one would need to be able to line those dozen 67s up raw, the 67+ and the 68 while throwing in a few 66 reds and have the majority of buyers (not dealers) mostly agree the 67+ and 68 were the best coins and worth stretching for. I simply don’t think that would happen with most top pops in the plastic game with the under grades esp from the late 20th cen.

    My point is more about the consistency of grading and the nuances of superb gem grading. Don’t get me started on 68,69 and 70s. I walk my walk too, my 1995w ASE is an ultra cam 68 in an NGC holder that I got for cheaper than spotted 69s in pcgs holders go for at wholesale. I have no idea why it’s a 68 and I am a pretty good grader but I know the plastic effect that elevates top pops also unfairly makes some coins market pariahs.

    Valid points. And if the registry game becomes less popular wouldn't most collectors of limited means prefer a pretty 66 to a technical 67 which might be less pretty?

    I'm always amazed at the amount of money floating around out there. [First world problems...] But don't most people have some level of expense where they start to consider the opportunity costs of holding a non-performing asset? In periods where the market is appreciating, it's easy to convince yourself that it is at least holding value. In a flat or slightly declining market (secular bear), isn't it harder to justify?

    Edited to add: For 40 years, I've been asking when people would start doing the math on college costs. They were second only to health care in cost increases, far outstripping the rate of inflation and income growth. And there are so many expensive degrees that didn't come with significant income enhancement. We'll, after 40 years, the students have started doing the math and it is creating recruitment issues for colleges in many programs.

    I think the college conundrum is a little more layered than the simplification that plastic empowered in the competitive top of the market with “mines bigger than yours” when resources are the measured variable. Is a penny worth 365k or 275k, it was worth 365 to blay but the question for that market is what was 365k worth to Blay vs the few people competing against specifically him.

    Colleges went to pot when they became assessable to the masses after WW2 and further when “college” became the solution for the masses when the factories went away. They lost the hand shake entry into elite circles and now that many of the BS white collar process support jobs are at risk with AI automation, kids are ending up with 150k of debt for the privilege of waiting tables after 4 years of drinking and maybe learning excel and word a bit. I just retired from the feds and had to dig up 30 year old pieces of paper and get walked though it by 7 different HR ladies, in a matter of years someone will simply press a button and the package will auto populate, ask a couple of questions and it will be done. That alone will make the thousands of HR (decent jobs) people who do that across the county obsolete and replace them with a few dozen IT slots. That’s coming for the majority of BS paper shufflers which is where the vast majority of college kids end up.

    I agree with you though enlightenment though learning, while nobel, isn’t the same as relevant training for the work force. One should not lie to themselves what they are really trying to accomplish when they spend so many resources.

  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,997 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Crypto. You once again make perfect sense with your discussion.

    And, putting aside the “registry game”, there is also the issue of just how devalued our money has become these days with crazy prices for everything. About $22/day to park the car at the coin show. I shared 2 bowls of Ramen soup (with chicken) with a friend at Harrods Food Court last week in London (and 1 Coke Zero) for 91 pounds ($122 USD). That’s less than (150) bowls of soup for the purchase of this pedigreed cent that previously sold at auction at around $17,500.00. But, I get it- you can’t eat the coin!

    Wondercoin.

    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • oldabeintxoldabeintx Posts: 2,399 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Many of us of a certain age are dumbfounded at how money is spent today by those who have it, the costs and the odd choices. Sports cards blow me away. A piece of manufactured card stock with a bad picture, not directly related to the athlete? A million bucks, sure why not?

  • NapNap Posts: 1,755 ✭✭✭✭✭

    In all fairness, the non-collector young adults with a mountain of college debt and high rents and car notes look at us with our silly rare coins and wonder why we are so foolish spending tons of money on mass produced shiny pieces of metal :)

    With regards to the coins in question, the answers are probably multifactorial- short hold, lower profile sale, significant premium on “top pop”, somewhat thin collector base at top end of market. If the coins had beaten the 2023 prices, I think it would have been more surprising.

  • oldabeintxoldabeintx Posts: 2,399 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Nap said:
    In all fairness, the non-collector young adults with a mountain of college debt and high rents and car notes look at us with our silly rare coins and wonder why we are so foolish spending tons of money on mass produced shiny pieces of metal :)

    Good point.

  • SanctionIISanctionII Posts: 12,563 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 14, 2025 12:43PM

    Mental Health professionals would have a field day reviewing and assessing the coin collectors. There are multiple root causes as to why people collect coins (and to be fair, other items), some of which are easily understood and some of which are hard to determine (and even harder to understand/appreciate).

    In times of self reflection I candidly admit that my own reasons for collecting coins (including those in the niche area of the hobby I play in) would be viewed by the general public as...................................... (I am struggling to come up with a word).................................... on the periphery of the standard Bell Curve :)

  • lusterloverlusterlover Posts: 1,268 ✭✭✭✭

    @seatedlib3991 said:
    I will only add an old saying . "One coin does not define an entire market." James
    P.S. Congrats on getting a coin you so obviously desired.

    Agree, let's try and be objective. We can find many Blay coins that have resold for more. The 1914 last night sold for more. That's just one quick example.

  • FlyingAlFlyingAl Posts: 3,855 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @lusterlover said:

    @seatedlib3991 said:
    I will only add an old saying . "One coin does not define an entire market." James
    P.S. Congrats on getting a coin you so obviously desired.

    Agree, let's try and be objective. We can find many Blay coins that have resold for more. The 1914 last night sold for more. That's just one quick example.

    Perhaps you missed the several coins listed at the beginning of this thread.

  • DMWJRDMWJR Posts: 6,034 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The frenzy for the original Blay auction was over the top. I was very familiar with each one and what he liked about them. I was able to get his 1912 and 1916, which were underrated at the action because the holders weren't top pop. I just picked up the 1915 last week and feel pretty good about the price I paid for the coin

    Doug
  • lusterloverlusterlover Posts: 1,268 ✭✭✭✭

    @FlyingAl said:

    @lusterlover said:

    @seatedlib3991 said:
    I will only add an old saying . "One coin does not define an entire market." James
    P.S. Congrats on getting a coin you so obviously desired.

    Agree, let's try and be objective. We can find many Blay coins that have resold for more. The 1914 last night sold for more. That's just one quick example.

    Perhaps you missed the several coins listed at the beginning of this thread.

    No, I saw that. They were disappointing results. My point is that there are many of his coins that have resold for more since the original auction: the 10-S, 1911, 11-S, etc. It wasn't just all hype and burying people as some are trying to portray. JMHO.

  • DMWJRDMWJR Posts: 6,034 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm still seeing crazy money for 1950's top pop DCAM's. It's mind blowing

    Doug
  • HarlequinHarlequin Posts: 152 ✭✭✭

    I wonder if we will ever see those higher prices realized again in the near future or if the current prices reflect the new bar set for these coins in particular ..... Only time will tell

    🇺🇸 Harlequin
    harlequinnumismatic@gmail.com

  • pcgsregistrycollectorpcgsregistrycollector Posts: 1,393 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @DMWJR said:
    I'm still seeing crazy money for 1950's top pop DCAM's. It's mind blowing

    I got outbid last second

    God comes first in everything I do. I’m dedicated to serving Him with my whole life. Coin collecting is just a hobby—but even in that, I seek to honor Him. ✝️

  • CatbertCatbert Posts: 7,594 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Harlequin said:
    I wonder if we will ever see those higher prices realized again in the near future or if the current prices reflect the new bar set for these coins in particular ..... Only time will tell

    Don’t forget to factor in inflation when evaluating trends.

    Seated Half Society member #38
    "Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
  • RayboRaybo Posts: 5,337 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I never liked red copper.

  • CryptoCrypto Posts: 3,867 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Raybo said:
    I never liked red copper.

    I’ve never trusted red copper, I love all coins. But that said I don’t collect copper dominate coins

  • DMWJRDMWJR Posts: 6,034 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I've been doing red copper for 30 years without a problem. Just be cautious of how and where you store them.

    Doug
  • CryptoCrypto Posts: 3,867 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @DMWJR said:
    I've been doing red copper for 30 years without a problem. Just be cautious of how and where you store them.

    I find copper to be much like sliver, old skin is often stable, coins treated right before grading will often look different in a few years. Storage variables will either minimize impact or exacerbate it.

  • Here's an interesting write. I wish I could've had the privilege of knowing Mr. Blay. I would've also loved to know Mr. Breen and Mr. Eliasberg. The education would've been unimaginable!

  • 1madman1madman Posts: 1,608 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I’m surprised that no one is thinking that the ceasing production of the cent is the reason for the downturn in cent prices.

    Should everyone be dumping record money into a series about to end? Thought you needed more collectors to help increase prices. Who’s just starting their Lincoln cent collection now? Doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.

  • MFeldMFeld Posts: 14,789 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @1madman said:
    I’m surprised that no one is thinking that the ceasing production of the cent is the reason for the downturn in cent prices.

    Should everyone be dumping record money into a series about to end? Thought you needed more collectors to help increase prices. Who’s just starting their Lincoln cent collection now? Doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.

    The vast majority of Lincoln cent collections don’t (and couldn’t) contain coins like the ones that were mentioned. They’re part of a different market than that which might be negatively impacted by the end of the denomination’s production.

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

  • PeakRaritiesPeakRarities Posts: 4,529 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @TexasYN2024 said:
    Here's an interesting write. I wish I could've had the privilege of knowing Mr. Blay. I would've also loved to know Mr. Breen and Mr. Eliasberg. The education would've been unimaginable!

    @lermish Check out this link...

    Founder- Peak Rarities
    Website
    Instagram
    Facebook

  • lermishlermish Posts: 3,731 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 20, 2025 5:36PM

    @PeakRarities said:

    @TexasYN2024 said:
    Here's an interesting write. I wish I could've had the privilege of knowing Mr. Blay. I would've also loved to know Mr. Breen and Mr. Eliasberg. The education would've been unimaginable!

    @lermish Check out this link...

    Lol!!! I was trying to figure out why you tagged me and then saw the hyperlink....It's been a while, can't say EJ is welcome back but at least he's just a libelous, dishonest jerk rather than actively stealing people's money like some of the scam artists who have been around here lately.

    EDIT: For anyone who likes to turn over stones to see the dung beetles underneath, start here and go backwards -> https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1110425/rick-snow-eagle-eye-rare-coins-heritage-mystery

    chopmarkedtradedollars.com

  • PeakRaritiesPeakRarities Posts: 4,529 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @lermish said:

    @PeakRarities said:

    @TexasYN2024 said:
    Here's an interesting write. I wish I could've had the privilege of knowing Mr. Blay. I would've also loved to know Mr. Breen and Mr. Eliasberg. The education would've been unimaginable!

    @lermish Check out this link...

    Lol!!! I was trying to figure out why you tagged me and then saw the hyperlink....It's been a while, can't say EJ is welcome back but at least he's just a libelous, dishonest jerk rather than actively stealing people's money like some of the scam artists who have been around here lately.

    EDIT: For anyone who likes to turn over stones to see the dung beetles underneath, start here and go backwards -> https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1110425/rick-snow-eagle-eye-rare-coins-heritage-mystery

    Oh boy, I just went down the rabbit hole and ended up the infamous "great ethics" thread...crazy times. I need to leave my computer for a bit now lmao, it's too easy to get pulled in.

    Founder- Peak Rarities
    Website
    Instagram
    Facebook

  • AotearoaAotearoa Posts: 1,548 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @TexasYN2024 said:
    Here's an interesting write. I wish I could've had the privilege of knowing Mr. Blay. I would've also loved to know Mr. Breen and Mr. Eliasberg. The education would've been unimaginable!

    I’m very happy to have never known Mr Breen.

    Smitten with DBLCs.

  • oldabeintxoldabeintx Posts: 2,399 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Met Breen once at an ANA summer seminar. An amazingly unpleasant man.

  • seatedlib3991seatedlib3991 Posts: 1,095 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I use Breen's Encyclopedia on a regular basis. To the best of my knowledge my book has not commited any crimes except perhaps over using the word "rare'. James

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 36,315 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MFeld said:

    @1madman said:
    I’m surprised that no one is thinking that the ceasing production of the cent is the reason for the downturn in cent prices.

    Should everyone be dumping record money into a series about to end? Thought you needed more collectors to help increase prices. Who’s just starting their Lincoln cent collection now? Doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.

    The vast majority of Lincoln cent collections don’t (and couldn’t) contain coins like the ones that were mentioned. They’re part of a different market than that which might be negatively impacted by the end of the denomination’s production.

    I'd forget mention that I doubt ending a series will have any negative impact on collectors of the series. Would there be more or less Buffalo nickel collectors if the series had never ended? If anything, I think there would be less not more.

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