1820 O-104a Rarity/Value Discussion
Pnies20
Posts: 2,480 ✭✭✭✭✭
Just wanted to make a quick thread about the rarity of the 1820 O-104a because the question of its value has come up to me from several different folks outside of this forum over the past several months. Collectors and dealers both need to do their due diligence when buying and selling this die marriage
The marriage in and of itself is considered very "tough" even though it was recently changed from a R4+ to a R3 designation. It always commands a premium when an attractive piece comes to market. However, the focus of my thoughts is the recent delisting of the "a" state by PCGS and the removal of diagnostics by the BHNC in the Die State Progressions of the Capped Bust Half Dollars 1807-1836 in 2022.
The R7 diagnostic criteria was a Die chip forming from the late stage of the die crack in state 104.2, which goes from below the lowest pair of leaves through 50c and to edge above upper arrow point. It was determined to possibly be some sort of PMD or other anomaly but not a result of being a later stage of the die and removed. Picture below from maibockaddict.com.
The next evolution of this discovery was to reconsider its rarity. The latest state of the die, 104.3, is characterized by the additional crack from RI to the tip of the wing. This was determined to be an R5 die state with ~30-60 existing. My Thoughts here are to encourage you to now reconsider its value. R6 and R7 die states rightfully bring strong and even astronomical premiums if the right collectors are on the hunt. They can bring hundreds or thousands of dollars more. This was the case with the 104a as an R7 die state. Coin facts shows a VF20 selling on Heritage for $8,813 and two sales of XF45 examples selling in 2019 and 2025 for $6,300 and $3,600, respectively.
It is my personal opinion that as an R5 die state, the coin should reasonably bring 20-30% more in its latest dies state (104.3) than the earlier states. My reasoning is other R5 die states typically fail to bring higher premiums unless it is an R5 die marriage. There is a lot of nuances to this topic as some die states regardless of rarity gain popularity and become very expensive. So, the value is my opinion only and people are free to pay what they see fit for a coin but be careful when buying and selling these and take my thoughts into consideration as it's not as rare as once thought.
BHNC #248 … 130 and counting.
Comments
Well put Paul.
As some added points to consider. The Die State Handbook produced by the BHNC (2022 1st Edition and soon to be released 2025 edition) do NOT list Die State Rarity Values, in a large part due to situations like this.
As more and more coins were studied through the mid-2010's, Die Marriage rarity became much more of a science than guess work. The internet and quality of images certainly helped user this along, as did the many collectors studying and dealing with Die Marriages. While certainly Die Marriage rarities might change, it is much less common today than ever.
Die States, on the other hand, seem to be less studied, and many have less long-term support ... with the apparent rarities are selected by just a relative handful of serious collectors. Even with the knowledge gained from producing two Die State handbooks, I do not believe all of the rarity factors for Die States are completely settled, even among those experts.
This is important to consider, as a well-established r.5 Die Marriage Capped Bust Half should maintain a relative place within the series as a much more difficult example, yet a r.5 Die State of a more common Die Marriage may change as more examples are considered. Maybe more importantly, certain Die State conditions may be esoteric enough in their differences to not warrant exceptional premiums.
As always, know your pursuit and your desire, and caveat emptor.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
This is a very interesting case since its not "we're not anywhere close to knowing how many of this die state exist" but rather "This die state doesn't exist!"
BHNC #248 … 130 and counting.
EXACTLY!
And this is a problem as well.
As well as the issue that sometime NEW Die States are discovered and published, which may also reduce the rarity values of other Die States for that Marriage.
For consideration, since I first became a BHNC Associate in early July of 2021, I have found one new Die State, and helped get another published into the Die State Handbook. I think at least a dozen more have been documented in that time, and at least several have been removed, as they were determined not to exist.
So the study of Die States IS still ongoing.
And that alone should be a HEAVY consideration for those people trying to price rare Die States using perceived r. values and not having a deep understanding of the Series, Die Marriages, Die States and the market for CBH's in general.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
Bump for Sunday am.
That was a quick drop from page 1. Let's see if this has any other comment or discussion before it dies on the vine.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
got the feeling there is a back story here........
as Todd mentioned "The Die State Handbook produced by the BHNC (2022 1st Edition and soon to be released 2025 edition) do NOT list Die State Rarity Values, in a large part due to situations like this."
Thinking someone is playing with numbers, be it Rarity or pricing or both.........
Yes… an educational document and a price guide should always be two separate things. I don’t think there’s any doubt there’s no attempt to mix the two here.
There have been 3 folks that reached out to me that have come across these in auction history or seeing them at bourse tables, etc. wondering about the rarity and possible value. Again just my 2¢ was given.
BHNC #248 … 130 and counting.
While I can’t speak to bust halves, the only die states that seem to matter for bust quarters are the “well known” ones (think equivalent to the Bearded Goddess in halves). The others are not avidly tracked by most collectors and it would be unusual to pay a premium for them, even if they are very rare.
As with the halves, new die states continue to be discovered and some that were thought as rare have proved not to be. They’re certainly fun to look for though!
Hello friends!!!
I agree with Paul and those have been my thoughts for a while. The Club is quick to add die states, but slow for correcting questionable issues (for good reasons). I would even venture the rarity being as low as an R-4. That crack does not seem rare to me, nor deserving premium over the already premiumed redbook variety and date as a whole. I am guessing the historical popularity has heavily influenced the big time buyer market for bust halves. The little to medium guys such as us can see right through the false rarity, while the big spender may not care as much for the die states and want to pay up for the "rarity."
I think I've had 5 or so die state findings, with a removal of one in progress.
"But seek ye first the kingdom of God and His righteousness and all these things shall be added unto you" Matthew 6:33. Young fellow suffering from Bust Half fever.
BHNC #AN-10
JRCS #1606
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Important points! Thanks Matt!!
Certainly there are some Die States that are very popular, and command large if not massive premium's (the "Bearded Goddess" is arguably the most famous, especially for Half Dollars). Usually, and much like in Quarters (and almost every series) from what I have seen, this requires a dramatic Die characteristic. Usually this will be a big and very focal Crack (or series of them), a very prominent CUD or noticable Chip ... something bold.
It also helps when a series is well followed, the characteristics have been known for a period of time, have become popular, and there are at least enough examples to fill a few want lists, but not all of them.
There are some very rare and almost unknown (at least today) Die States, that while exceedingly rare, crary little premium. Think of all the obscure FS numbers in some modern series. Nothing against this trend, in fact as Matt @scubafuel points out, they are fun to study ... but there comes a point were absolute rarity doesn't mean anything in regards to price premium if the general population of collectors doesn't really care that much. They may be worth a premium, but usually only to the most ardent collectors of the series.
And then, sometimes ... as is the case here ... earlier observations of what was considered a Die Marker are just plain wrong, and the data has been disproven over time. Often this is a hit or scar or other feature that is really PMD is documented as a Die condition, but was not seen as such originally.
.
Therein lies the problem ... and why Paul started this thread.
The 1820 O-104 is a difficult coin from a difficult Die Marriage. There is no disputing that, no matter which of the three Die States you find it in.
However, technically, the 1820 O-104a, as defined by Overton, has been widely considered NOT to exist as stated.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
hi @jacrispies. Good to hear from you.
BHNC #248 … 130 and counting.
Hello friends! Looking forward to seeing some of you in OKC next month! Tracking die states in any series is hard - because it's a spectrum where oodles of visible changes may occur between first and last use of the die.
I feel (mostly) comfortable in my world of Capped Bust half dimes because I collect by die marriage / remarriage. The die states are important in establishing remarriage numbers, of course. But there can be a number of states within a remarriage that would make it really hard to collect all of them.
Case in point: the R7 remarriage called 1833 LM-3.5 gets a great big cud over NITE (see ex- @Barndog coin in first image below). But you don't have to have a coin in that late state to satisfy the remarriage. My coin (second image below), which is the ONLY chance I've had at a '33 3.5 in over 5 years, meets the remarriage definition since it has "serifs of IT solid." Mine is a bit more advanced over that minimal definition, as you can see the beginnings of the retained cud.
It's hard enough getting one instance of an R7 remarriage, let alone multiple. Especially those that are easily recognizable, or that grab your eye with a big cud.
My (infrequently updated) hobby website Groovycoins.com
@Bikergeek i always admire your half dimes posts showing cuds. Super cool.
See you in a month.
BHNC #248 … 130 and counting.
@Pnies20 said:
This caught my attention because I always thought PCGS just followed the Overton Reference. So I did some of my own due diligence (as you so correctly suggested at the open) and came up with the following questions/observations.
Looking at the so-called R.7 die state Auction images, I agree that the "die chip at edge below center pair of leaves" is not a new die crack or extension of an existing crack. The three pricing outliers that you quoted for the VF20 and two XF45 R.7's (which is the same coin) have distinctly different PMDs.
I think what may have prompted PCGS to delist the "a" state is that "the die chip at edge below center (not lower) pair of leaves" essentially does not exist, even though the first part about "additional die cracks through RI toward tip of right wing" remains the key diagnostic.
The question I have is where did the R.7 rarity come from to begin with. I don't see it in the Overton references or any of the official BHNC Die State references. I do note, however, that the Heritage Auction listings for the three pricing outliers did list them as R.7 rarities, so they must have gotten that information from somewhere. I'm guessing there's a couple of people out there who didn't do enough due diligence on this one.
Correct
I am unsure of the origin story of the so-called die chip. Maybe one of the OGs that hasn’t chimed in has some insight @BustDMs? It is referenced on maibockaddict.com. My best guess is that some rogues (I don’t mean that in a derogatory sense) got together and felt like they had discovered something new and it caught fire and gained credence from a few folks.
This is another benefit of the die state study. It ferreted some of these types of “discoveries” out and will greatly reduce the possibility of it happening in the future.
BHNC #248 … 130 and counting.
Pnies20 is calling me out again trying to get me in more trouble than usual.
The current arbiter of the die states only considers die cracks in the state progression study. As we all know, there are numerous other changes to the die’s that can determine an advancing die state.
So, that is all you’re going to get from me at this time.
A: The year they spend more on their library than their coin collection.
A numismatist is judged more on the content of their library than the content of their cabinet.
Understood! 😂
BHNC #248 … 130 and counting.
Imo, the O-104a should have been redefined. Any presence of the RI crack would be the O-104a (R5?). Delisting it probably created several bag holders.
Early American Copper, Bust and Seated.
Like you need any assistance in that department!!!!!!!
@BustDMs said: > The current arbiter of the die states only considers die cracks in the state progression study. As we all know, there are numerous other changes to the die’s that can determine an advancing die state.
I guess if there was damage to or removal of features from the die, I could see how one could argue a separate die state. However, you need to find more than just one coin with that feature. I don't see that here. The two XF45s from the Heritage Auctions and the maibockaddict.com example are one and the same coin and they differ in diagnostics from the VF-20 that Heritage sold in 2017 for $8,813. Still wondering where Heritage got the R.7? description from for that auction and the 2019 Auction of the XF45.
It has been updated in many places, but there are still lingering documents suggesting that the 104a, as described by Overton in the Third Edition (and likely beyond) exists.
Since the "die chip at edge below center pair of leaves" is not known to exist, I think the widening of the crack described by Overton that is part of the 104, would still be considered a 104.
It is unfortunate that the 104a was ever listed at all, much less at one time as a r.7? Die State.
But of course the ? is the key. No one was really sure, so the ? seems to have acted as a disclaimer to however made that claim.
And, of course, the internet never lets anything go away.
For the record, the BHNC currently recognizes three Die States for the 1820 O-104;
104.1 would exhibit no cracks
104.2 has the Die Crack on the reverse through 50 C and lower arrow point, to the edge above upper arrow point
104.3 has the additional Die Crack on the reverse thru RI toward tip of right wing, but no die chip at edge below center pair of leaves
104.3 is the closest to a 104a as Overton described it, but it does not meet that requirement, and while we generally don't publish this information as per my statement above, we are currently showing that the 104.3 is a r.5 Die State.
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As in all parts of this great hobby, I think recognizing there can and are errors in published information is an important consideration, and a reminder that we should all be diligent in our research and claims, as well as our buying endeavors.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242