A Repeating 3-Day GTG Experiment - 1st Coin Completes 7-21
FlyingAl
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I thought it would be interesting to run a sort of experiment here with GTGs. Oftentimes posters will use GTGs to get an idea of if to resubmit a coin, or not to.
Here's my question - how accurate is the forum, grading from images alone? Over the years, I've built up a good chunk of coins with my own images that we can use for this purpose, given the consistent images and vast array of grades/services.
Here's how I plan to do it - one coin a week, after which the grades will be tallied and scored. Each correct answer will be 0 points, 1 point off is 1 point, 2 points off 2 points, etc. Missing designations counts as a point. Essentially, the fewer points at the end of the grade session the better. All coins for the moment will be CAC certified, so as to add another degree of accuracy in the actual grade. I will also choose coins I feel are properly graded.
I will upload the guesses into the below publicly accessible Google Sheet, so you all can view the data for yourselves.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UYJAbLnHMsDWuv72Rj7AjlTbFLkctDOiw7rHwDq45ZU/edit?gid=0#gid=0
I'll let each coin run for roughly three days.
We'll start simple - this 1881-S $1.
Comments
MS66+
MS 65
MS67+
Young Numismatist • My Toned Coins
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MS66
MS 67
I'll guess MS67+ and if it weren't stickered by CAC I very well might have guessed MS68.
Said another way, I'll be shocked it the coin grades less than 67.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Like any GTG, I wonder how comments and grade guesses alike affect the downstream guesses. If you had posted your grade and comment 7/31 vs 7/18 would the average guess be different? Either way, I think it's a fun experiment and look forward to seeing the results.
MS67
I’ve also wondered if or how much some guesses affect others that follow. I can tell you that there have been plenty of occasions in which it seemed clear that some guesses clearly weren’t influenced by mine (or my comments).😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
66
67
Gobrecht's Engraved Mature Head Large Cent Model
https://www.instagram.com/rexrarities/?hl=en
MS67. Very clean cheek with only about 3 minor blemishes on primary focal points.
God comes first in everything I do. I’m dedicated to serving Him with my whole life. Coin collecting is just a hobby—but even in that, I seek to honor Him. ✝️
66+
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
Since it’s from flyingAl. MS68. Otherwise MS 67
MS-67
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A great start to this experiment!
So far I'm calculating the average, standard deviation of the guesses, and the how far off the average guess is from the actual grade. If anyone else would like to see some other calculations, please let me know!
Additionally, is a week just right, not long enough, or too long?
67
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
I would prefer 3 days but others might differ. Thanks for the thread!
God comes first in everything I do. I’m dedicated to serving Him with my whole life. Coin collecting is just a hobby—but even in that, I seek to honor Him. ✝️
I think this may be preferable. I'll switch to that.
66
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67
Collector of Capped Bust Halves, SLQ's, Commems, and random cool stuff! @davidv_numismatics on Instagram
67
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Would it be against your rules if I waited for Cougar to proper his guess and then (add a point or two) offer then mine?
67+ very nice
Jim
When a man who is honestly mistaken hears the truth, he will either quit being mistaken or cease to be honest....Abraham Lincoln
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.....Mark Twain
OK, so if I just make some general comments on each coin, without specifying a guess of the grade, I’ll have zero points, and can then claim I tied for first place?
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Throwing a dart, I’ll say 67+.
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
MS 67
MS-67
MS66+
Student of numismatics and collector of Morgan dollars
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67
I started out at 67 because of how clean the coin is both fields and cheek. Then I remembered the person posting this is suppose to be a photo guru. To me the 1881-S is a coin that must have knock you off your chair luster to get high grades. this coin does not appear that way to me so I will guess 66. James
66
66
I’ll grade this a 67+.
Right now, we're sitting at an average of a 67 grade, plus or minus a half a point in deviation over 29 guesses. Very tight grading on this one!
ms-67
67 cac at least; a couple luster grazes etc.; not sure how many they'd permit for a 68.
I'll count this as a 67+.
Instead of doing that, why not ask him to specify his grade guess? A guess of “67 at least” is too vague, as it covers numerous grade possibilities.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
This is a good idea, but there's also always a few guesses in a GTG where the poster has to interpret the grade somewhat. It may be good for the experiment's sake to keep that factor in the data. Just a thought.
For purposes of this exercise, if the guessed grade isn’t specific/needs interpretation, it shouldn’t count. You can always give someone a chance to get off the fence and redo their guess so that it’s clear. I’ll butt out now, as it’s your thread, not mine.😬
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
For now, we'll keep it as is unless @logger7 wants to add extra clarification.
@FlyingAl This looks like an interesting challenge indeed.
I'm really torn on this one. I am waffling between two grades, but I am really leaning towards the upper one. Is it enough? Not really sure. Not my series and not my grade range, but it has to be close. But, probably like many here, I'll pick the plus grade for the in-between.
Put me down for MS67+
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
Waffling back and forth whether or not it's a plus, but going to make it official and say this coin is an MS67+. I've seen 8's that had a mark or two more than this one, but the minor blemishes on the obverse hold it back from a full 8 IMO.
Rattler: 66
Regular holder or raw: 67
The initial post indicated that the coin’s been stickered, so “raw” isn’t an option.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Correct but I guess I’m saying if this coin or any coin like this was raw, it would be a 67 and it lines up with today’s grading standard. 90% irrelevant I suppose.
I am not dialed into Morgan dollars. An 1881 S is a common coin. I do not know how TPGs view the 1881 S Morgan for grading. The pictured coin does have some marks on the fields and devices on both sides. The appearance of the surface of the chin, jaw, cheek, mouth and neck of Ms. Liberty looks off to me.
I looked at Coin Facts photos of MS 1881 S Morgans and note that in coins graded 67 and above bust of Ms. Liberty is mostly uniform and smooth in appearance (thus different than the appearance of chin, jaw, cheek, mouth and neck of Ms. Liberty in the pictured coin). For coins graded less than MS67, some of them show Ms. Liberty with various flaws.
My guess as to the grade of the pictured coin is MS66 at best.
Having viewed an extremely large quantity of images of MS67-68 Morgan dollars and more than my fair share in hand, I can’t even fathom the subject coin grading as low as MS66, much less, MS66 at best. I’d love to see pictures of a couple examples of that grade that you saw and thought looked superior to the one being assessed here.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
67