actually, once points were discussed the whole 5 year 5% thing is simply in response to the hypothetical of gold moving sideways for 5 years and calling it a bullish consolidation
Just because an item has a relatively wide buy/sell spread (as quoted by some dealer), that does not mean it is illiquid
That pretty much is the the definition of illiquid.
Just like a stock that goes down in price. You can try day after day, month after month, but nobody will pay the price you are asking. Stocks are totally illiquid when the price goes down (according to your definition quoted above).
This is not what I am saying at all. I dont know why you have a problem with this. Im not asking for todays price, not last weeks, last months or the price I paid. If 90% is spot x .715, then I want spot x 7.15. Not a 10 or 20% discount.
I am not trying to sell a stock that is trading at $10 for $10.50. Ill sell it for $10. But with silver (or many times gold) if it is selling for $32 (spot price) then many times one will get offers at spot - (some)%. Thats the risk one assumes with PMs. There must always be another party with which to transact (counter-party), and they set the buy price. If you dont like it then there is no transaction. The act of not being able to transact is risk and illiquidity.
You must REALLY HATE real estate. Look at the effort it takes to buy, and especially to sell. All the walking you have to do to examine a property. Sheesh ! And the inspection fees, and the appraisal fees, and the broker fees, and title company fees, and the county taxes, and the maintenance, and the time it takes to sell and close, etc
Nope, its actually you who has stated real estate is a bad investment.
You suggested that bonds would be better than gold for the next several months or years
I didnt say that at all. I responded to an assertion that gold may sit around $3000 for a few years. I simply stated, and correctly, that in that case one would be better off owning a bond paying 5%.
@RedneckHB said: Just because an item has a relatively wide buy/sell spread (as quoted by some dealer), that does not mean it is illiquid
That pretty much is the the definition of illiquid.
Just like a stock that goes down in price. You can try day after day, month after month, but nobody will pay the price you are asking. Stocks are totally illiquid when the price goes down (according to your definition quoted above).
This is not what I am saying at all. I dont know why you have a problem with this. Im not asking for todays price, not last weeks, last months or the price I paid. If 90% is spot x .715, then I want spot x 7.15. Not a 10 or 20% discount.
Unless you are selling to a private party, you are ignoring how all transactions work with retail establishments that must buy at a price below where they can sell it. Every asset has transaction costs and buy/sell spread. Is there one asset can you buy and sell for the same price?
I am not trying to sell a stock that is trading at $10 for $10.50. Ill sell it for $10. But with silver (or many times gold) if it is selling for $32 (spot price) then many times one will get offers at spot - (some)%. Thats the risk one assumes with PMs. There must always be another party with which to transact (counter-party), and they set the buy price. If you dont like it then there is no transaction. The act of not being able to transact is risk and illiquidity.
We know stocks are out based on what you said above. A typical stock trading for $10/share probably has a bid of $9.95 and an ask of $10.05. Therefore you bought your stock for $10.05 and if you want to sell it, the bid is only $9.95. And guess what? You'll have to pay a commission on both trades.
You must REALLY HATE real estate. Look at the effort it takes to buy, and especially to sell. All the walking you have to do to examine a property. Sheesh ! And the inspection fees, and the appraisal fees, and the broker fees, and title company fees, and the county taxes, and the maintenance, and the time it takes to sell and close, etc
All of those fees are optional. If I have a free and clear plot of land (or house or...) , I can sell it to you directly without any fees. The only thing you'd pay is a recording fee, which is also optional.
with enough gold it is easy to fly it to ana in ok or to a local show in wash.
anyway, try the bst thread here
plenty of online buyers
stocks, bonds, and even cdo in the housing crisis? nah, not cdo then. oh? there were buyers taking risks then like the fed and tarp?
then i'll say in a crisis a buyer for gold could be had if even selling internationally is required
we could all follow hypotheticals into infinity and come up with some scenarios that are ever increasing crises.
i'll take it to the end. if we can't go to another solar system, then stocks and gold are worthless and illiquid. trade chickens while you wait for humanity's doom. though you're right, chicken might be illiquid in a clan fearing salmonella.
@RedneckHB said: Just because an item has a relatively wide buy/sell spread (as quoted by some dealer), that does not mean it is illiquid
That pretty much is the the definition of illiquid.
Just like a stock that goes down in price. You can try day after day, month after month, but nobody will pay the price you are asking. Stocks are totally illiquid when the price goes down (according to your definition quoted above).
This is not what I am saying at all. I dont know why you have a problem with this. Im not asking for todays price, not last weeks, last months or the price I paid. If 90% is spot x .715, then I want spot x 7.15. Not a 10 or 20% discount.
I am not trying to sell a stock that is trading at $10 for $10.50. Ill sell it for $10. But with silver (or many times gold) if it is selling for $32 (spot price) then many times one will get offers at spot - (some)%. Thats the risk one assumes with PMs. There must always be another party with which to transact (counter-party), and they set the buy price. If you dont like it then there is no transaction. The act of not being able to transact is risk and illiquidity.
You must REALLY HATE real estate. Look at the effort it takes to buy, and especially to sell. All the walking you have to do to examine a property. Sheesh ! And the inspection fees, and the appraisal fees, and the broker fees, and title company fees, and the county taxes, and the maintenance, and the time it takes to sell and close, etc
Nope, its actually you who has stated real estate is a bad investment.
You suggested that bonds would be better than gold for the next several months or years
I didnt say that at all. I responded to an assertion that gold may sit around $3000 for a few years. I simply stated, and correctly, that in that case one would be better off owning a bond paying 5%.
Yes, derryb, im talking to a rock.
.
One wide spread, as quoted by one dealer, does not make a market illiquid.
Don't be a retail speculator. Look for deals on silver (or whatever) that you can buy for close to the same price that reputable low-spread dealers are paying. That way, you can buy and sell at the same rate.
Compared to silver, buying and selling real estate is an enormous hassle. That alone doesn't make real estate a "bad investment" (but the taxes can do that).
You wrote that selling gold and buying bonds "might be a great trade".
Well, is it or not ?
You also wrote exactly this:
you may not have even gotten the price you wanted or that you thought it was worth. That is not liquidity.
Hypothetical scenario:
I have Tesla stock. I think it is worth $400 per share. But I can't find a buyer for it at the price I thought it was worth. So, by your logic, it must be severely illiquid.
@ProofCollection said:
All of those fees are optional. If I have a free and clear plot of land (or house or...) , I can sell it to you directly without any fees. The only thing you'd pay is a recording fee, which is also optional.
.
It would be nice if the taxes were "optional" (or non-existant).
Property taxes are unconstitutional in my opinion.
Is there one asset can you buy and sell for the same price?
The spread on most equities is 1/1000 of a cent. I'd call that the same price
A typical stock trading for $10/share probably has a bid of $9.95 and an ask of $10.05. Therefore you bought your stock for $10.05 and if you want to sell it, the bid is only $9.95. And guess what? You'll have to pay a commission on both trades
No. I'm assuming haven't bought a stock in 20 years? The spread is fractions of a penny and many firms offer commission free trading.
@RedneckHB said: Just because an item has a relatively wide buy/sell spread (as quoted by some dealer), that does not mean it is illiquid
That pretty much is the the definition of illiquid.
Just like a stock that goes down in price. You can try day after day, month after month, but nobody will pay the price you are asking. Stocks are totally illiquid when the price goes down (according to your definition quoted above).
This is not what I am saying at all. I dont know why you have a problem with this. Im not asking for todays price, not last weeks, last months or the price I paid. If 90% is spot x .715, then I want spot x 7.15. Not a 10 or 20% discount.
I am not trying to sell a stock that is trading at $10 for $10.50. Ill sell it for $10. But with silver (or many times gold) if it is selling for $32 (spot price) then many times one will get offers at spot - (some)%. Thats the risk one assumes with PMs. There must always be another party with which to transact (counter-party), and they set the buy price. If you dont like it then there is no transaction. The act of not being able to transact is risk and illiquidity.
You must REALLY HATE real estate. Look at the effort it takes to buy, and especially to sell. All the walking you have to do to examine a property. Sheesh ! And the inspection fees, and the appraisal fees, and the broker fees, and title company fees, and the county taxes, and the maintenance, and the time it takes to sell and close, etc
Nope, its actually you who has stated real estate is a bad investment.
You suggested that bonds would be better than gold for the next several months or years
I didnt say that at all. I responded to an assertion that gold may sit around $3000 for a few years. I simply stated, and correctly, that in that case one would be better off owning a bond paying 5%.
Yes, derryb, im talking to a rock.
.
One wide spread, as quoted by one dealer, does not make a market illiquid.
Don't be a retail speculator. Look for deals on silver (or whatever) that you can buy for close to the same price that reputable low-spread dealers are paying. That way, you can buy and sell at the same rate.
Compared to silver, buying and selling real estate is an enormous hassle. That alone doesn't make real estate a "bad investment" (but the taxes can do that).
You wrote that selling gold and buying bonds "might be a great trade".
Well, is it or not ?
You also wrote exactly this:
you may not have even gotten the price you wanted or that you thought it was worth. That is not liquidity.
Hypothetical scenario:
I have Tesla stock. I think it is worth $400 per share. But I can't find a buyer for it at the price I thought it was worth. So, by your logic, it must be severely illiquid.
.
What's wrong with you? If the market price ain't 400, then you ain't gonna sell it. The seller of his silver thinks his silver is worth 32 and wants 32 because that's what the market says it's worth.
If the market price of silver is 32 then you should expect to get 32, not 28. If he ain't getting 32 then now he has a problem. Why would he expect 35?
I'm glad we got some legs on this topic, but man o' man have we proven the point that engineers should stay away from money. No wonder they avoided business school.
@ProofCollection said:
All of those fees are optional. If I have a free and clear plot of land (or house or...) , I can sell it to you directly without any fees. The only thing you'd pay is a recording fee, which is also optional.
It would be nice if the taxes were "optional" (or non-existant).
Property taxes are unconstitutional in my opinion.
I agree with the sentiment, but I also struggle to identify a fairer way to collect money from the public to fund roads, police, etc. In a world without property taxes, how would that be done? Sales taxes alone?
@RedneckHB said:
What's wrong with you? If the market price ain't 400, then you ain't gonna sell it. The seller of his silver thinks his silver is worth 32 and wants 32 because that's what the market says it's worth.
Then the seller misunderstands the market. Spot price is the price of a 1000oz .999 fine bar. Variants in other sizes and packaging will naturally be priced differently. A lot of sellers don't understand that, but you can't blame seller ignorance for calling something illiquid.
@ProofCollection said:
Try selling your stocks or bonds on a Saturday night and see how liquid they are. Or when the exchange computers >or internet goes down.
So your investment planning is based on Black Swan events ? No, for 99.999% of us that is not the way to go.
@ProofCollection said:
Try selling your stocks or bonds on a Saturday night and see how liquid they are. Or when the exchange computers >or internet goes down.
So your investment planning is based on Black Swan events ? No, for 99.999% of us that is not the way to go.
A Saturday night is not a black swan event. It happens once a week.
The internet going down is not a black swan event. $hit happens.
My online investment activity is not concerned with either of the above events because NO ONE can trade when these events occur. Trading is simply suspended for all. It's no different than the markets closing overnight.
@derryb said:
A Saturday night is not a black swan event. It happens once a week.
The internet going down is not a black swan event. $hit happens.
My online investment activity is not concerned with either of the above events because NO ONE can trade when >these events occur. Trading is simply suspended for all. It's no different than the markets closing overnight.
Those are not INVESTABLE or ACTIONABLE items that a sensible retail or institutional investor should be concerned with. 24/7 access is not something that defines liquidity.
You can sell you gold on a Saturday night...can you get the cash ? Can you buy guns or ammo or food ?
@MsMorrisine said:
ahhhh the hypotheticals are here....
What's the price of me gold? I've been half absent lately. Did we rescue tick tock?, cancel or implement more tariffs?? Is my net worth up or down.....? It's been a few minutes let me go check...........
PS: I think I bought some ounces of gutter today in the form of the SLV. The metal of kings is pricey but hearing stories of $10 Indians headed to the smelter. What a crying shame. SMH! send them my way, I'll gladly take some at the smelter price. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
@derryb said:
A Saturday night is not a black swan event. It happens once a week.
The internet going down is not a black swan event. $hit happens.
My online investment activity is not concerned with either of the above events because NO ONE can trade when >these events occur. Trading is simply suspended for all. It's no different than the markets closing overnight.
Those are not INVESTABLE or ACTIONABLE items that a sensible retail or institutional investor should be concerned with. 24/7 access is not something that defines liquidity.
You can sell you gold on a Saturday night...can you get the cash ? Can you buy guns or ammo or food ?
@derryb said:
If liquidity is dependent on markets being open, then no asset is liquid over the weekend except cryptos which trade 24/7.
No, I can meet you any day or any time to sell you an ounce of gold or silver or any other physical possession for cash. And many cities have 24 Hour pawn shops.
@derryb said:
If liquidity is dependent on markets being open, then no asset is liquid over the weekend except cryptos which trade 24/7.
No, I can meet you any day or any time to sell you an ounce of gold or silver or any other physical possession for cash. And many cities have 24 Hour pawn shops.
If you're waking me up at 2am to sell an ounce of gold you better accept a steep discount.
And if you need cash at 2am, then you most likely have much bigger problems.
Any cash transaction in the middle of the night probably involves a high degree of counter-party risk
@derryb said:
If liquidity is dependent on markets being open, then no asset is liquid over the weekend except cryptos which trade 24/7.
No, I can meet you any day or any time to sell you an ounce of gold or silver or any other physical possession for cash. And many cities have 24 Hour pawn shops.
If you're waking me up at 2am to sell an ounce of gold you better accept a steep discount.
And if you need cash at 2am, then you most likely have much bigger problems.
Any cash transaction in the middle of the night probably involves a high degree of counter-party risk
Being able to sell something any time of day is the ultimate liquidity. Looks like we've come full circle from the comment made that PMs are illiquid.
@derryb said:
If liquidity is dependent on markets being open, then no asset is liquid over the weekend except cryptos which trade 24/7.
No, I can meet you any day or any time to sell you an ounce of gold or silver or any other physical possession for cash. And many cities have 24 Hour pawn shops.
If you're waking me up at 2am to sell an ounce of gold you better accept a steep discount.
And if you need cash at 2am, then you most likely have much bigger problems.
Any cash transaction in the middle of the night probably involves a high degree of counter-party risk
Being able to sell something any time of day is the ultimate liquidity. Looks like we've come full circle from the comment made that PMs are illiquid.
@derryb said:
If liquidity is dependent on markets being open, then no asset is liquid over the weekend except cryptos which trade 24/7.
No, I can meet you any day or any time to sell you an ounce of gold or silver or any other physical possession for cash. And many cities have 24 Hour pawn shops.
If you're waking me up at 2am to sell an ounce of gold you better accept a steep discount.
And if you need cash at 2am, then you most likely have much bigger problems.
Any cash transaction in the middle of the night probably involves a high degree of counter-party risk
Being able to sell something any time of day is the ultimate liquidity. Looks like we've come full circle from the comment made that PMs are illiquid.
Indeed. They are. Right back to where we started.
PMs----buy at retail, sell at wholesale.
A pawn shop will be offering much less than wholesale. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
David Einhorn, a prominent hedge fund manager, was on CNBC yesterday talking up gold. He's held gold for years so it's not a market-timing thing or imminent boost. He's holding for 2030 and 2035.
Interview still without a paywall at CNBC, but hurry :
Gold is finally acting the way it should in this Trump economy. Stock market goes up, gold goes down.
Unless there is some catastrophic event which takes place in the world, I see the above trend continuing for quite some time.
That being said, if you like gold, which I do, buy it in numismatic form, as folks will have more money in their pocket moving forward, and in my view, coin collecting values will increase nicely along with the stock market.
@stevek said:
Gold is finally acting the way it should in this Trump economy. Stock market goes up, gold goes down.
Unless there is some catastrophic event which takes place in the world, I see the above trend continuing for quite some time.
That being said, if you like gold, which I do, buy it in numismatic form, as folks will have more money in their pocket moving forward, and in my view, coin collecting values will increase nicely along with the stock market.
Gold down? It's up $1K+ since the Mr. bankrupt genius took the office. I believe my 401K's are currently down about 5% in that same timeframe. Not sure what world you are residing in?
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
@stevek said:
Gold is finally acting the way it should in this Trump economy. Stock market goes up, gold goes down.
Unless there is some catastrophic event which takes place in the world, I see the above trend continuing for quite some time.
That being said, if you like gold, which I do, buy it in numismatic form, as folks will have more money in their pocket moving forward, and in my view, coin collecting values will increase nicely along with the stock market.
Gold down? It's up $1K+ since the Mr. bankrupt genius took the office. I believe my 401K's are currently down about 5% in that same timeframe. Not sure what world you are residing in?
A world of reality where the race is just getting started.
We'll check back on this thread in the summer of 2028, and see who's the better Nostradamus. 😉
Gold down? It's up $1K+ since the Mr. bankrupt genius took the office. I believe my 401K's are currently down about 5% in that same timeframe. Not sure what world you are residing in?
Jan 21 gold was $2759. So it’s closer to $400. Yes it peaked a couple hundred higher.
Anecdotal, but my IRA was down around 10%. It’s currently up about 3% from the tariff starts.
I have no idea what will happen moving forward, Im not an economist and don’t pretend to be, but seems like a lot of pearl clutching and sky is falling talk to me.
A developing global dollar liquidity crisis (shortage due to lack of lending and spending) will do wonders to the price >of gold. Equities will suffer.
I doubt it. Back in 2008 that was the perfect storm for gold and it fell 20% or more.
Gold doesn't need trouble to rise. Supply and demand will lift it.
Gold down? It's up $1K+ since the Mr. bankrupt genius took the office. I believe my 401K's are currently down about 5% in that same timeframe. Not sure what world you are residing in?
Jan 21 gold was $2759. So it’s closer to $400. Yes it peaked a couple hundred higher.
Anecdotal, but my IRA was down around 10%. It’s currently up about 3% from the tariff starts.
I have no idea what will happen moving forward, Im not an economist and don’t pretend to be, but seems like a lot of pearl clutching and sky is falling talk to me.
My portfolio has bounced back nicely as well, to almost at its peak.
If/when that Ukraine war finally gets settled, I think gold will take a precipitous dip. Possibly back to around the $2500 level.
There have been alot of potentially fundamental economic changes in the past 6 months, but one fundamental issue remains above all else. Debt and unfunded liabilities continue to increase well beyond the economy's ability to smooth things over. In essence, nothing has changed, except perhaps the levels of market volatility. Interest rates and taxes are going up regardless.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
The greatest fundamental economic concern at the moment is lack of liquidity (global shortage of dollars). Dollars "created" by the FED are of no help. Liquidity is created by the lending from the private banking sector (reserve banking, money from thin air) and spending by the recipients of this lending. Spending is reflected in the velocity of money, something that is now pointing towards a liquidity crisis. Shortage of dollars is one reason central banks around the world are cashing in US treasuries for dollars that they need for international trade. A liquidity crisis will only strengthen the growing international movement to trade in non-dollars.
A developing global dollar liquidity crisis (shortage due to lack of lending and spending) will do wonders to the price >of gold. Equities will suffer.
I doubt it. Back in 2008 that was the perfect storm for gold and it fell 20% or more.
Gold doesn't need trouble to rise. Supply and demand will lift it.
Partially. The gold price movements will have more to do with the value of what you are using the measure it's value with (the US dollar in this case) than the asset itself. The US needs and wants a weak dollar to achieve what it needs to do.
@RedneckHB said:
If countries are cashing in treasuries for dollars, isnt that increased demand for dollars and should dollar index be going up?
study up on how dollar index is calculated
You know that I know more about the index than you, so Ill ask what you what you should have have asked yourself (or whatever newsletter you borrowed thought from).
If the dollar index is down, at a time when countries are supposedly selling treasuries to BUY dollars, then that would mean they are buying even MORE of the other currencies in the index. There must be more buying pressure in those other currencies to offset the buying in the dollar. Otherwise the dollar index would be going up. Are other countries buying even more YEN, EURO, POUND, CANADIAN DOLLAR, SWEDISH KRONA?
@jmski52 said:
There have been alot of potentially fundamental economic changes in the past 6 months, but one fundamental >issue remains above all else. Debt and unfunded liabilities continue to increase well beyond the economy's ability >to smooth things over. In essence, nothing has changed, except perhaps the levels of market volatility. Interest >rates and taxes are going up regardless.
I've heard that for 45 years....the deficit....the trade deficit....a bond-buyers strike...etc.
Again, look at the competition and get back to me.
@stevek said:
Gold is finally acting the way it should in this Trump economy. Stock market goes up, gold goes down.
Unless there is some catastrophic event which takes place in the world, I see the above trend continuing for quite some time.
That being said, if you like gold, which I do, buy it in numismatic form, as folks will have more money in their pocket moving forward, and in my view, coin collecting values will increase nicely along with the stock market.
This is not an attempt at making a political statement. Just quoting a comment and some fact from 8 1/2 years ago.
One could easily argue that this rally in gold started in mid-December 2016. The low during the downtrend and consolidation off the 2011 peak was in Dec 2015, but the first higher low (when buying pressure exceeded selling pressure) was in Dec 2016.
@jmski52 said:
There have been alot of potentially fundamental economic changes in the past 6 months, but one fundamental >issue remains above all else. Debt and unfunded liabilities continue to increase well beyond the economy's ability >to smooth things over. In essence, nothing has changed, except perhaps the levels of market volatility. Interest >rates and taxes are going up regardless.
I've heard that for 45 years....the deficit....the trade deficit....a bond-buyers strike...etc.
Again, look at the competition and get back to me.
@RedneckHB said:
If countries are cashing in treasuries for dollars, isnt that increased demand for dollars and should dollar index be going up?
study up on how dollar index is calculated
You know that I know more about the index than you, so Ill ask what you what you should have have asked yourself (or whatever newsletter you borrowed thought from).
If the dollar index is down, at a time when countries are supposedly selling treasuries to BUY dollars, then that would mean they are buying even MORE of the other currencies in the index. There must be more buying pressure in those other currencies to offset the buying in the dollar. Otherwise the dollar index would be going up. Are other countries buying even more YEN, EURO, POUND, CANADIAN DOLLAR, SWEDISH KRONA?
.
You obviously forget that markets are two-way. A buyer and a seller are needed.
A country sells some US Treasury bonds. What currency do they accept in payment ? If it is US Dollars, then it is simply an exchange of dollars for bonds. The same quantity of bonds exist as before the transaction. The same number of dollars exist as before the transaction. There is no net change in the total amount of either.
Bond prices will, of course, seek an equilibrium between buyers and sellers. If buyers become reluctant, the bonds have to get cheaper (with higher interest rates to attract buyers). If sellers become reluctant, the bond prices have to increase (with lower interest rates to encourage sellers).
However, if reluctance of buyers causes interest rates to rise above the level that the Federal Reserve wants, the Federal Reserve must step in and essentially "print" money to buy bonds and take them off the market. In this case, the value of the Dollar is diluted and the dollar index comes under downward pressure.
It seems that the general expectation is that the Federal Reserve will have to (in the somewhat near future) "print" more money to take bonds off the market. Otherwise a sell-off in bonds will occur as countries try to unload more of them just as buyers become more reluctant.
@stevek said:
Gold is finally acting the way it should in this Trump economy. Stock market goes up, gold goes down.
Unless there is some catastrophic event which takes place in the world, I see the above trend continuing for quite some time.
That being said, if you like gold, which I do, buy it in numismatic form, as folks will have more money in their pocket moving forward, and in my view, coin collecting values will increase nicely along with the stock market.
This is not an attempt at making a political statement. Just quoting a comment and some fact from 8 1/2 years ago.
One could easily argue that this rally in gold started in mid-December 2016. The low during the downtrend and consolidation off the 2011 peak was in Dec 2015, but the first higher low (when buying pressure exceeded selling pressure) was in Dec 2016.
Gonna be tough to beat that Nostradamus. LOL
The gold bulls are quite giddy right now, as they should be. Gold has spiked very nicely in recent history.
However a key for investment success is to always remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.
Comments
actually, once points were discussed the whole 5 year 5% thing is simply in response to the hypothetical of gold moving sideways for 5 years and calling it a bullish consolidation
Just because an item has a relatively wide buy/sell spread (as quoted by some dealer), that does not mean it is illiquid
That pretty much is the the definition of illiquid.
Just like a stock that goes down in price. You can try day after day, month after month, but nobody will pay the price you are asking. Stocks are totally illiquid when the price goes down (according to your definition quoted above).
This is not what I am saying at all. I dont know why you have a problem with this. Im not asking for todays price, not last weeks, last months or the price I paid. If 90% is spot x .715, then I want spot x 7.15. Not a 10 or 20% discount.
I am not trying to sell a stock that is trading at $10 for $10.50. Ill sell it for $10. But with silver (or many times gold) if it is selling for $32 (spot price) then many times one will get offers at spot - (some)%. Thats the risk one assumes with PMs. There must always be another party with which to transact (counter-party), and they set the buy price. If you dont like it then there is no transaction. The act of not being able to transact is risk and illiquidity.
You must REALLY HATE real estate. Look at the effort it takes to buy, and especially to sell. All the walking you have to do to examine a property. Sheesh ! And the inspection fees, and the appraisal fees, and the broker fees, and title company fees, and the county taxes, and the maintenance, and the time it takes to sell and close, etc
Nope, its actually you who has stated real estate is a bad investment.
You suggested that bonds would be better than gold for the next several months or years
I didnt say that at all. I responded to an assertion that gold may sit around $3000 for a few years. I simply stated, and correctly, that in that case one would be better off owning a bond paying 5%.
Yes, derryb, im talking to a rock.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Unless you are selling to a private party, you are ignoring how all transactions work with retail establishments that must buy at a price below where they can sell it. Every asset has transaction costs and buy/sell spread. Is there one asset can you buy and sell for the same price?
We know stocks are out based on what you said above. A typical stock trading for $10/share probably has a bid of $9.95 and an ask of $10.05. Therefore you bought your stock for $10.05 and if you want to sell it, the bid is only $9.95. And guess what? You'll have to pay a commission on both trades.
All of those fees are optional. If I have a free and clear plot of land (or house or...) , I can sell it to you directly without any fees. The only thing you'd pay is a recording fee, which is also optional.
http://ProofCollection.Net
So you're supposed to wait for a coin show to get liquidity ?
That's why even illiquid stocks or bonds are light-years better as stores of value than most gold holdings.
with enough gold it is easy to fly it to ana in ok or to a local show in wash.
anyway, try the bst thread here
plenty of online buyers
stocks, bonds, and even cdo in the housing crisis? nah, not cdo then. oh? there were buyers taking risks then like the fed and tarp?
then i'll say in a crisis a buyer for gold could be had if even selling internationally is required
we could all follow hypotheticals into infinity and come up with some scenarios that are ever increasing crises.
i'll take it to the end. if we can't go to another solar system, then stocks and gold are worthless and illiquid. trade chickens while you wait for humanity's doom. though you're right, chicken might be illiquid in a clan fearing salmonella.
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One wide spread, as quoted by one dealer, does not make a market illiquid.
Don't be a retail speculator. Look for deals on silver (or whatever) that you can buy for close to the same price that reputable low-spread dealers are paying. That way, you can buy and sell at the same rate.
Compared to silver, buying and selling real estate is an enormous hassle. That alone doesn't make real estate a "bad investment" (but the taxes can do that).
You wrote that selling gold and buying bonds "might be a great trade".
Well, is it or not ?
You also wrote exactly this:
Hypothetical scenario:
I have Tesla stock. I think it is worth $400 per share. But I can't find a buyer for it at the price I thought it was worth. So, by your logic, it must be severely illiquid.
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It would be nice if the taxes were "optional" (or non-existant).
Property taxes are unconstitutional in my opinion.
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Is there one asset can you buy and sell for the same price?
The spread on most equities is 1/1000 of a cent. I'd call that the same price
A typical stock trading for $10/share probably has a bid of $9.95 and an ask of $10.05. Therefore you bought your stock for $10.05 and if you want to sell it, the bid is only $9.95. And guess what? You'll have to pay a commission on both trades
No. I'm assuming haven't bought a stock in 20 years? The spread is fractions of a penny and many firms offer commission free trading.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What's wrong with you? If the market price ain't 400, then you ain't gonna sell it. The seller of his silver thinks his silver is worth 32 and wants 32 because that's what the market says it's worth.
If the market price of silver is 32 then you should expect to get 32, not 28. If he ain't getting 32 then now he has a problem. Why would he expect 35?
I'm glad we got some legs on this topic, but man o' man have we proven the point that engineers should stay away from money. No wonder they avoided business school.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
For us retail holders of gold, the metal is fairly liquid. We are coming out of ounces or pounds.
For large holders, it is ILLIQUID because they hold tons of the metal.
Try selling your stocks or bonds on a Saturday night and see how liquid they are. Or when the exchange computers or internet goes down.
I agree with the sentiment, but I also struggle to identify a fairer way to collect money from the public to fund roads, police, etc. In a world without property taxes, how would that be done? Sales taxes alone?
Then the seller misunderstands the market. Spot price is the price of a 1000oz .999 fine bar. Variants in other sizes and packaging will naturally be priced differently. A lot of sellers don't understand that, but you can't blame seller ignorance for calling something illiquid.
http://ProofCollection.Net
So your investment planning is based on Black Swan events ? No, for 99.999% of us that is not the way to go.
A Saturday night is not a black swan event. It happens once a week.
The internet going down is not a black swan event. $hit happens.
My online investment activity is not concerned with either of the above events because NO ONE can trade when these events occur. Trading is simply suspended for all. It's no different than the markets closing overnight.
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Those are not INVESTABLE or ACTIONABLE items that a sensible retail or institutional investor should be concerned with. 24/7 access is not something that defines liquidity.
You can sell you gold on a Saturday night...can you get the cash ? Can you buy guns or ammo or food ?
ahhhh the hypotheticals are here....
What's the price of me gold? I've been half absent lately. Did we rescue tick tock?, cancel or implement more tariffs?? Is my net worth up or down.....? It's been a few minutes let me go check...........
PS: I think I bought some ounces of gutter today in the form of the SLV. The metal of kings is pricey but hearing stories of $10 Indians headed to the smelter. What a crying shame. SMH! send them my way, I'll gladly take some at the smelter price. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
gold is in the neighborhood of 3250
You startin' ta talk like a bunker dude.
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Try selling your gold or silver on a Saturday night. Is the argument here that stocks are illiquid?
If liquidity is dependent on markets being open, then no asset is liquid over the weekend except cryptos which trade 24/7.
ZeroHedge makes debut at White House press corps briefing
3180 on the June futures. Is it making a little double top?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
No, I can meet you any day or any time to sell you an ounce of gold or silver or any other physical possession for cash. And many cities have 24 Hour pawn shops.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Probably a downward channel with eventual upside breakout. Maybe something like this.
http://ProofCollection.Net
If you're waking me up at 2am to sell an ounce of gold you better accept a steep discount.
And if you need cash at 2am, then you most likely have much bigger problems.
Any cash transaction in the middle of the night probably involves a high degree of counter-party risk
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Being able to sell something any time of day is the ultimate liquidity. Looks like we've come full circle from the comment made that PMs are illiquid.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Indeed. They are. Right back to where we started.
PMs----buy at retail, sell at wholesale.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
if it is pinedale, wy at 2 am after a snowstorm?
A pawn shop will be offering much less than wholesale. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
I once delivered a car to a dude ranch in Pinedale.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
David Einhorn, a prominent hedge fund manager, was on CNBC yesterday talking up gold. He's held gold for years so it's not a market-timing thing or imminent boost. He's holding for 2030 and 2035.
Interview still without a paywall at CNBC, but hurry
:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/05/14/greenlights-einhorn-gold-will-go-higher-and-its-based-on-confidence-in-fiscal-and-monetary-policy.html
Jeff Gundlach, The Bond King, also chimes in on gold:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/05/07/gundlach-gold-is-likely-to-go-to-4000-its-no-longer-a-speculation-for-short-term-traders.html
A developing global dollar liquidity crisis (shortage due to lack of lending and spending) will do wonders to the price of gold. Equities will suffer.
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Gold is finally acting the way it should in this Trump economy. Stock market goes up, gold goes down.
Unless there is some catastrophic event which takes place in the world, I see the above trend continuing for quite some time.
That being said, if you like gold, which I do, buy it in numismatic form, as folks will have more money in their pocket moving forward, and in my view, coin collecting values will increase nicely along with the stock market.
gold $3200
Gold down? It's up $1K+ since the Mr. bankrupt genius took the office. I believe my 401K's are currently down about 5% in that same timeframe. Not sure what world you are residing in?
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
A world of reality where the race is just getting started.
We'll check back on this thread in the summer of 2028, and see who's the better Nostradamus. 😉
Jan 21 gold was $2759. So it’s closer to $400. Yes it peaked a couple hundred higher.
Anecdotal, but my IRA was down around 10%. It’s currently up about 3% from the tariff starts.
I have no idea what will happen moving forward, Im not an economist and don’t pretend to be, but seems like a lot of pearl clutching and sky is falling talk to me.
My Ebay Store
I doubt it. Back in 2008 that was the perfect storm for gold and it fell 20% or more.
Gold doesn't need trouble to rise. Supply and demand will lift it.
My portfolio has bounced back nicely as well, to almost at its peak.
If/when that Ukraine war finally gets settled, I think gold will take a precipitous dip. Possibly back to around the $2500 level.
There have been alot of potentially fundamental economic changes in the past 6 months, but one fundamental issue remains above all else. Debt and unfunded liabilities continue to increase well beyond the economy's ability to smooth things over. In essence, nothing has changed, except perhaps the levels of market volatility. Interest rates and taxes are going up regardless.
I knew it would happen.
The greatest fundamental economic concern at the moment is lack of liquidity (global shortage of dollars). Dollars "created" by the FED are of no help. Liquidity is created by the lending from the private banking sector (reserve banking, money from thin air) and spending by the recipients of this lending. Spending is reflected in the velocity of money, something that is now pointing towards a liquidity crisis. Shortage of dollars is one reason central banks around the world are cashing in US treasuries for dollars that they need for international trade. A liquidity crisis will only strengthen the growing international movement to trade in non-dollars.
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If countries are cashing in treasuries for dollars, isnt that increased demand for dollars and should dollar index be going up?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
study up on how dollar index is calculated
ZeroHedge makes debut at White House press corps briefing
Partially. The gold price movements will have more to do with the value of what you are using the measure it's value with (the US dollar in this case) than the asset itself. The US needs and wants a weak dollar to achieve what it needs to do.
http://ProofCollection.Net
You know that I know more about the index than you, so Ill ask what you what you should have have asked yourself (or whatever newsletter you borrowed thought from).
If the dollar index is down, at a time when countries are supposedly selling treasuries to BUY dollars, then that would mean they are buying even MORE of the other currencies in the index. There must be more buying pressure in those other currencies to offset the buying in the dollar. Otherwise the dollar index would be going up. Are other countries buying even more YEN, EURO, POUND, CANADIAN DOLLAR, SWEDISH KRONA?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I've heard that for 45 years....the deficit....the trade deficit....a bond-buyers strike...etc.
Again, look at the competition and get back to me.
This is not an attempt at making a political statement. Just quoting a comment and some fact from 8 1/2 years ago.
One could easily argue that this rally in gold started in mid-December 2016. The low during the downtrend and consolidation off the 2011 peak was in Dec 2015, but the first higher low (when buying pressure exceeded selling pressure) was in Dec 2016.
Gonna be tough to beat that Nostradamus. LOL
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
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GOLD is the competition. Look at it.
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You obviously forget that markets are two-way. A buyer and a seller are needed.
A country sells some US Treasury bonds. What currency do they accept in payment ? If it is US Dollars, then it is simply an exchange of dollars for bonds. The same quantity of bonds exist as before the transaction. The same number of dollars exist as before the transaction. There is no net change in the total amount of either.
Bond prices will, of course, seek an equilibrium between buyers and sellers. If buyers become reluctant, the bonds have to get cheaper (with higher interest rates to attract buyers). If sellers become reluctant, the bond prices have to increase (with lower interest rates to encourage sellers).
However, if reluctance of buyers causes interest rates to rise above the level that the Federal Reserve wants, the Federal Reserve must step in and essentially "print" money to buy bonds and take them off the market. In this case, the value of the Dollar is diluted and the dollar index comes under downward pressure.
It seems that the general expectation is that the Federal Reserve will have to (in the somewhat near future) "print" more money to take bonds off the market. Otherwise a sell-off in bonds will occur as countries try to unload more of them just as buyers become more reluctant.
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The gold bulls are quite giddy right now, as they should be. Gold has spiked very nicely in recent history.
However a key for investment success is to always remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance.