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WOW -- Prices of 1902 Micro-O Morgans are going nuts!!
DennisH
Posts: 14,010 ✭✭✭✭✭
Has anybody else noticed what's been happening lately to prices of this super-tough VAM? Here are some numbers:
-- On 11-06-04 at the Heritage Palm Beach sale lot # 10163, a PCGS VF20, sold for $2,070 including commission.
-- On 1-11-05 at the Superior Ft. Lauderdale sale lot #871, a PCGS VF30, sold for $5,100 including commission.
-- Tonight on eBay item #3949506604, a PCGS VG08, sold for $1,275.
I've been a big believer in this coin for several years, but all I seem to be able to say is WOW!
-- On 11-06-04 at the Heritage Palm Beach sale lot # 10163, a PCGS VF20, sold for $2,070 including commission.
-- On 1-11-05 at the Superior Ft. Lauderdale sale lot #871, a PCGS VF30, sold for $5,100 including commission.
-- Tonight on eBay item #3949506604, a PCGS VG08, sold for $1,275.
I've been a big believer in this coin for several years, but all I seem to be able to say is WOW!
When in doubt, don't.
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A nice coin for say $500.00, can't figure why they paid AU price for it.
What the price of a coin was in the past is totally irrelevant when demand increases and supply can't keep up. Take houses as an example. What point is there to saying, "I remember when these sold for $100,000" when today's world values them at $500,000? If you decide you're not going to pay more than $100,000 you'll be sleeping outside for the rest of your life. If you're selling, however, are you going to sell for the "used to be" price or the "today" price?
If you added them all together, the combined population of the 1896-1900-1902 Micro-O would only be a fraction of the 1893-S. A fraction. The demand for these coins -- even in the low-grade circ. levels that basically all of them exist -- already vastly exceeds supply. If just half a dozen people wake up tomorrow and decide they are determined to get one, prices will rightfully go even more ballistic.
Anyone want to predict what's going to happen to demand for these coins when PCGS starts attributing all Top 100 VAMs on their holders later this year?
Anyone want to predict what's going to happen to demand for these coins a year or two later?
Here's my prediction: Hang on to your hats with both hands.
The coin brought a couple hundred more than my pre-auction guess. I figured it would go for just under a thousand. When I listed it with a $749 opening bid, I received an email from someone asking me if I was crazy...that he/she had one in to PCGS for crossover. It was in an ANACS F12 slab...and they said they would be 'thrilled' to get my opening bid price of $749 for it. I immediately wrote back and said, I would buy the coin sight unseen for $750 on the condition it came back VG10 or better. They then got cold feet and indicated that they would wait and see what my coin did first. Now of course, that deal is off.
I have no idea where these coins are going. I may have sold too early. I may have sold at the top. I don't have a Morgan Registry set, so it made sense for me to sell the coin since there had been the 2 recent high auction results. These are undoubtedly tough coins to find, and even more so, to find in a condition that PCGS will find market acceptable. All I know, is my auction winner was thrilled to win the coin. It made his Registry Set with Varieties 100% complete.
Greg Hansen, Melbourne, FL Click here for any current EBAY auctions Multiple "Circle of Trust" transactions over 14 years on forum
I hope you're right. But knowing human nature, I think VAM prices will initially take a hit
Of course, 2-3 years down the road will be different.
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I just got a raw one, will anyone slab it?
Wow - bid war!
afaik, PCGS DOES NOT SLAB COUNTERFEITS!
I guess the market for counterfeits in booming.
My attitude is the same for everything except some of the stuff that was made in the 1780s and earlier. To hell with them.
That was 20 years ago
The post was in 2005
Thanks, I need to start looking at the date of the posts.
Did PCGS slab them at one time?
ICG slabs counterfeits.
yes
https://coins.ha.com/itm/morgan-dollars/1902-o-1-micro-o-vf20-pcgs-vam-3-a-top-100-variety-deep-olive-coloration-adorns-both-sides-of-this-well-detailed-example-with/a/358-10163.s?ic4=GalleryView-ShortDescription-071515
PCGS slabbed a small number of 1896-micro O, 1900-micro O, and 1902-micro O Morgan dollars with the "micro-O" variety designation noted on the label. PCGS subsequently discovered that they were all very deceptive contemporary counterfeits. In April 2005, PCGS published an article declaring these coins were counterfeits and offered to buy the PCGS slabbed coins back to take them off the market. Not everyone sold their coins back to PCGS and those counterfeit coins that are still housed in genuine PCGS slabs are fairly rare and bring good money.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Yes, Pre-2005 https://www.pcgs.com/News/Pcgs-Declares-Three-Micro-O-Morgan-Varieties-Are-Contemporary-Counterfeits
WOW! They sure would fool me. I found them listed on VAM WORLD. Fascinating.
Not anymore, but I think that they did slab some.
They did until about 20 years ago or so. They offered a bounty for people to turn them in for "unslabbing", but there were no takers. ICG has a special label for contemporary counterfeits. The micro O counterfeit family is 32 out so die marriages and is highly sought after by some VAM collectors.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
I have a 1902-O but I don't think the O is micro.
Student of numismatics and collector of Morgan dollars
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No, not a "micro-O". But it is a genuine US Mint product
Note the wide gap between the back of the Eagle's neck and wing. That is the "C4" reverse hub type that was first put into use in 1900. Prior to this was the C3 "narrow gap" hub. All the micro-o coins have the narrow gap because the counterfeit micro-o die was made as a transfer off of a genuine 1899-O micro-o coin.
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When they were finally recognized to be counterfeits, PCGS purged public documentation that they existed. They were removed from the Pop Report and their respective coin numbers do not produce population results. The last time I was able to find a back door into population data (April 2022) this is what I put together:
Thanks Dennis, so I imagine there are similar numbers in NGC and ANACS?
An old soapbox ANACS sold a couple of months ago on GC
https://greatcollections.com/Coin/1750482/1902-O-Morgan-Silver-Dollar-Micro-O-VAM-3-Top-100-ANACS-XF-45-OH
That indicates that they are rare indeed.
NGC never slabbed any since they recognized them as being counterfeit from the beginning.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
So have there been or likely to be other contemporary counterfeits from the same maker with a different reverse. If so, seems they might pass unoticed without the unusual reverse to tip them off unless this was the only reverse they ever used. Interesting that they fooled everyone for around 100 years. Wondering if there are others.
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
Where did you learn this? By the genuine look of the coins posted, that seems very hard to believe. They are listed in the Vam book that was probably published before 1986 so they must have received some to authenticate at the same time as PCGS and ANACS.
I just tried to see if ICG listed any AU - MS coins in the counterfeit slab but had a hard time getting their pop report to work and gave up!
Excerpt from an article I wrote for the inaugural issue of VAMview in September 2005:
I read it somewhere many years ago. Several came into NGC and the graders noticed that they all were struck with the same reverse die which raised a red flag. I've seen a few PCGS slabbed micro-O counterfeits for sale on eBay but I've never seen an NGC example.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
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Yes. After the PCGS announcement of 2005 that the three micro-o dates (1896,1900,1902) were vintage counterfeits, other coins with the same obverse dies but normal-O reverses were discovered. Now there are (I think) 37 known die pairs in the family that are linked and are VAM-listed. All have an O mint mark. Note that the lone VAM-listed 1900-S vintage counterfeit was likely produced by a different maker.
Here is an 1893-O VAM-7 in a recent-generation (post 2005) PCGS holder that is part of the family and it has an impossible (for 1893) reverse hub type of 1900 (wide neck-wing gap):
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PS:
The VAM World web site (VAMWorld.com) seems to be having some server issues right now. But they have a section dedicated to the listed "Privately Made" (vintage counterfeit) coins.
My coin club presentation about these is posted as a slide show here:
moonlightmint.com/VAM_privately_made/00.htm
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So is the whole coin counterfeit or just the mintmark?
http://ProofCollection.Net
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Which coin are you asking about ?
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The 1902-O (Micro O).
http://ProofCollection.Net
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The whole coin is counterfeit. These have the full silver content (if not a little bit more). They were made with the intent of spending at face value to earn a profit for the maker. At the time, the free-market price of the silver content would have been less than 50 cents.
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I heard a theory they were so deceptive that they had to be made by a foreign government possibly to debase our currency during WWI. Has anyone ever checked their composition?
I have said over the years that I suspect that they were made by the Soviet Union during the Great Depression just as a means of converting very cheap Silver Bullion (down to 27 cents an ounce at one point) into spendable coins worth $1.29 an ounce, but I have never been able to prove it.
I have also suggested that elemental analysis be done on these and the counterfeit 1923-D and 1930-D Dimes RUMORED to have been made in the Soviet Union to see if there is any correlation of trace elements, but to the best of my knowledge this has never been done.
TD
No one knows for sure who made them but the prevailing theory was they were produced by a crime syndicate who also owned or had a controlling interest in several casinos that used silver dollars in their slot machines. Also, it's interesting that all of these counterfeit micro-O silver dollars exist in circulated grades. I doubt the Soviets made them since it would be easier to counterfeit our paper money like the North Koreans are currently doing with our $100 bills.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I'm happy to hear all theories on these, and the organized crime one is interesting. However, the casino industry and modern slot machines seem to have developed after the era when the silver dollars were produced. Plus, if I was going to counterfeit silver dollars when both Morgan and Peace dDollars were actively circulating then I might have chosen the Peace Dollar since they frequently displayed weaker details/strikes.
As for the Soviets counterfeiting paper money, it's not quite as easy as it sounds to produce an undetectable counterfeit. As understand it, to the extent that the North Koreans have been able to produce nearly perfect forgeries, it is only because they have a US Treasury printing press.
The silver dollar forgeries as circulating coins were not nearly perfect, they essentially were perfect. Only scrutiny from numismatists uncovered their status.
The underground casino industry was thriving in New Orleans in the early 20th century, even if slot machines weren't popular until the 1930s.
If the coins were made in the 1930s, then the intention would have been to throw off people and the authorities by making them look like older coins, hiding manufacturing defects with decades of wear.
If the truth about these is ever discovered, it'll make for an interesting read.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
I'm sure all of that is true, but wouldn't the real draw of a gambling aspect to silver dollar forgeries be the rows and rows of Vegas slot machines that came later? I suppose even underground gambling would provide opportunities as patrons would be hard pressed to complain if things didn't look quite right.
One other random tidbit that might support a Soviet connection is that the real story has never been leaked. I'd expect that if they were domestic production then it might have come to light at some point, one way or another.
I guess I somehow prefer the intrigue of a communist plot, rather than a more pedestrian domestic counterfeiting ring. 😆
They are believed to have been artificially circulated as their luster would have looked suspect if left alone. (This can be seen to some extent on the AU examples.)
Young Numismatist • My Toned Coins
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Counterfeit currency tends to eventually get noticed by the Secret Service.
The best minds in the Morgan Dollar universe went DECADES without catching on to the Small O counterfeits.
In addition to the three micro O dates (96-O, 00-O, & 02-O) I did see a low grade G-VG 1901-O micro O at least 20 years ago at Long Beach. It was in the possession of Gene Sanders.
I thought that was cool.
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Certain die pairs in the "family" have luster that definitely looks suspect (as struck) on one or both sides. This 1896-O VAM-21 is mint state, but the luster is lacking and the surfaces are grainy (especially the obverse):
But this 1896-o VAM-4 (micro-o) has luster that is very plausible for a US Mint coin:
I have read the theory that the counterfeiters intentionally tumbled and/or artificially circulated their product to hide the deficiencies. But that is just a theory and there is no proof of that, as far as I can tell. Neither of the coins above were tumbled or circulated in any way, naturally or artificially. I think these vintage counterfeits were simply struck and then placed into circulation as-is. Once in circulation, they tended to stay there and so most are heavily impacted by natural circulation effects.
PS:
The 1896-o micro-o posted above is, in my opinion, the single highest grade (MS-64) of ANY known "Privately-Made" VAM coin.
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