How do you avoid paying too much for a must have?
furywiz
Posts: 7 ✭
I’ve had a coin on my watch list that is relatively rare - less than 100 or so - but I’ve only seen one for sale in the last year and the seller wants moon prices for it. Every so often, I’m tempted to just overpay for it, but have resisted the urge so far.
I’m sure many others have waited much longer than a year for a special coin, but what have you considered when deciding to finally pull the trigger?
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It's simple for me. If i buy this special coin for "moon money" will it impact my family negatively. Will I put less food on the table, put the house at risk because i can't pay the mortgage, not be able to help my kids through college, support my fav charity. If the answer is no to all of these questions than I see no problem with getting a coin that would be very special and give immense enjoyment. Buy what your budget/finances allows.
Is it worth it? 100 known or modestly less and an appearance once a year really isn’t rare. It comes down to quality and how this coin stacks against the other examples. If exceptional it may be a better deal than you realize.
Latin American Collection
Fair point. I would never put coins before the family and necessities.
And to be clear, it’s not an extraordinary amount of money overall in the big picture, just when considering this coin specifically.
Have you tried making an offer to the seller? You might be able to get 10-25% off (especially if the seller has room and is motivated to sell after it having no bites for a while).
In general, buying something for moon money is a matter of how often you see it for sale, how strong is the eye appeal, and your financial position. If you have the funds and the purchase won't change your lifestyle, then that is the first step towards getting it. Now add in solid (or better yet, exceptional) eye appeal and an item that does not show up for sale too often, then go for it. However, if there are distracting marks/spots/haze, that would be a sign to wait for a better example.
How much I pay for a coin is simple - could I easily recoup most of the money when it comes time to sell? (The auction fee of course is a goner, but that is the price of ownership.)
My only advice is not to make the seller aware that you must have it, some guys will pick up on your urgency and see dollar signs.
Sean Reynolds
"Keep in mind that most of what passes as numismatic information is no more than tested opinion at best, and marketing blather at worst. However, I try to choose my words carefully, since I know that you guys are always watching." - Joe O'Connor
I have a long wantlist which avoids the problem of focusing on "must haves."
How much is the coin worth and how much does he expect you to ''overpay'' for it? How much will you regret it if it is sold to another buyer before you? What type of grade is it in are most of the 100 known examples in lower grades to mid grades? If there are only a few you can afford out of the 100 then maybe it is time to buy it.
NFL: Buffalo Bills & Green Bay Packers
How out of line is his price? Is it likely to sit in his inventory forever? Do you see other overpriced coins in his stock that you have noticed sitting there for years? If yes, not to be morbid or anything, but is the dealer likely to kick the bucket anytime soon? If you think it's going to sit in his inventory forever you can always wait for him to kick and his inventory to hopefully land at a major auction house or local dealer you can actually work with.
Years ago I was the underbidder in an auction for a "must have" for me. About a week later I get a call from a dealer who knew some of my wantlist. He said he bought something for me, and I told him I was the underbidder. I dropped out at $2000, he got it on the next bid. He tells me the price is now $4500, and if I put a check in the mail he'll send it to me today. Needless to say it sat in his inventory for 13 years until I saw his obit. Less than a year later, another dealer has his entire inventory on ebay with a BIN at 50% of the dead guy's retail, or make an offer. I offered $1750 and got it.
Just call him and make your best offer. Leave your phone number and have him call you if he wants to sell at your price. If the coin has been in his inventory for a long time your chances are better, but the best coins priced right move pretty quickly.
The only time I’ve ever paid ‘stupid money’ is when I got into bidding wars in auctions. Thankfully, this has only happened a few times. There are very few items that I feel are ‘once in a lifetime opportunities’, but they are certainly out there. How much you’re willing to pay for something is an amount that only you can decide.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I have had alligator arms a few times in the recent past on a few coins on my want list. Now I look back and ask myself why I didn't pony up.
If the coin doesn't come up that often and it's the coin you want, go for it!
Mike
My Indians
Danco Set
I just remind myself coins speculative, dont pay dividends.
Get Married
You'll get used to the term NO.
And over paying.
NFL: Buffalo Bills & Green Bay Packers
Poster stated coin has been for sale for a year. I don't know how it is determined to be a long time. Guess everyone has a different wait time.
I waited a day too long to decide to buy a nice looking PCGS MS62 1922 no D strong reverse (one of two non MS 09-58 Lincolns in my set, the other being a 1917 DDO, well except the 58DDO that I will never have) and I have been kicking myself for a week. I decided that I would search for an MS63 to ease my pain.
Called a set budget for coins and I have never gone over it I, also I have a list of coins that fit within my set budget so that way I have much to buy that falls within my set budget and never want a coin that is out of budget
US and World Silver Coins for Sale at link below
https://photos.app.goo.gl/Lu7hEuQDcc95URgz6
(Get Married)
On one hand I don't see the upside. It's expensive, you'll never have money again, won't be able to do anything on your own, scared somebody might take it away from you, always making sure it has everything it needs.........And on the other hand then there's the coin you want to get.....
"When they can't find anything wrong with you, they create it!"
After the novelty of the coin wears off, will you still enjoy looking at the coin while remembering that you overpaid for it and are now buried in it?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
A modern coin I am looking for my PCGS Type set books for $450 in MS65, the only one I ever seen is on eBay for $2950, so I guess I'll keep looking.
Mine is in a similar category. It’s a pattern coin that what is truly worth (however we want to define that term) around $500 and the seller has had it listed for $2,600 for the last 12 months.
It doesn’t appear he has a storefront and when I reached out via message to see if he had any room, the simple reply was “No”. Then I reached out about 7 months later seeing as it was still just sitting there and his reply was “I already told you no.” So I don’t love the guy’s response, as I was being respectful and polite each time, but I’m not trying to buy the guy, just his coin.
It’s just hard to knowingly pay 5x true value, even if I can afford it.
I collect circulated Seated Quarters. Go look at the prices in the CDN for most coins in Fine to Very fine condition. Then look at actual auction results for the last 5 years and you will not find any coins that are not multiples of those prices. so I would have to ask how reliable your reference is.
On the other hand, I would never pay 5 times the going rate. i am just a hobby guy and the world won't end if I have to wait longer for a coin. I have coins I have waited 5 or 10 years for.
But then I am Dutch. Good luck no matter what you decide. James
Key word in your response...
BUDGET!
Another important word is Discipline.
Don't overpay for the coin. If you are meant to own it, one will become available to you for the price you want to pay which isn't this current coin or you would have already pulled the trigger!😎
Yeah, instead of that beautiful, rare 1794 dollar, you’ll be paying for a walk-in closet filled with hundreds of shoes! 👠
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Just some thoughts...
You might think about the characteristics of a "must have" coin...
Is it a quality coin for the grade?
What is the demand for the series and date?
The critical factor is not always how often the coin is offered for sale, but how often a quality example is offered and there is a difference.
Good luck with the decision
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
@Walkerfan . SHOES. I will take on anybody out there. I have been with the same woman for over 45 years. She had a stroke and has a condition called foot drop. This means she drags her toe and wears a hole in her shoe every 3 to 4 weeks. do the math and get back to me if you can have bought more than 500 pairs of women's shoes. James
I have waited sometimes for 15 years to find a coin. If it shows up buy it.
Realizing that no coin or collectible is a "must have."
If I can’t buy it right (around bid or below) it’s not a must have lol.
You’re a good man.👍 Kudos to you for taking good care of her. 💕
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I often pay more than what I estimate as the market price, but not by much and only when a coin is special in some way. I’m not sure what “moon money” is, but given some of the multiples quoted I just don’t go there. Matter of pride more than anything. It may help that I have varied interests and don’t collect series or participate in registries.
And only be allowed your little man cave (more like a walk in closet) even if you paid for most of the house. No thanks I prefer my hobbies, my pet and my peace of mind.
NFL: Buffalo Bills & Green Bay Packers
@Walkerfan . Thanks for the praise but none needed. We are married the way the old Highland Scots are married. She is bone of my bone and blood of my blood. It is only natural to be kind to your own flesh. james
She seems like a great wife (rarity these days) and in that case she deserves the best!!!
NFL: Buffalo Bills & Green Bay Packers
You can avoid it by redefining what is "too much" so that you are not paying "too much" rather you are just paying "retail."
Oh, and if you do buy it, ask the dealer (if it is a dealer) to report the transaction to the price guides.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Point of clarification from the OP.
OP said "only seen one for sale in the last year"....did NOT say "only seeing 1 per sale per year".
There is a lot of difference in the 2 statements, imo
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
I understood it as one sells per year. Still not rare per se.
Latin American Collection
Further clarification. Is this 100 in all grades or the desired grade? Because for me there are some coins that I can only theoretically afford the lower end of the graded population so even though there could be 100, there's probably only 3 or 4 in the grades I can afford. When those come available, I see it as a situation where you either buy it or you might not ever get the chance again. So how bad to you want to fill the hole?
http://ProofCollection.Net
Black and white
" but I’ve only seen one for sale in the last year"
Not even close to saying "one sells per year".
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
I would not pay 5 times the value for any coin especially if you say about 100 exist.
Question is why is he asking so much does he tend to do that? I mean I would talk to him tell I know the coin well and its value and go from there.
NFL: Buffalo Bills & Green Bay Packers
All grades.
This is correct, I’ve only been looking for a year and have only seen one. Looking over past sales, I’ve only seen one other in the last few years and it was the same coin several years earlier at a significant reduction from its current offering.
Sounds like the owner understands what he has. You only have one other data point in which to evaluate valuation. For me, it would come down to the quality of the coin compared to others (hopefully you can find others in which to compare to this one). If the coin was important to me, the quality is all there, and the opportunity is infrequent, then I'd consider stepping up. Quality doesn't come cheap either.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
I cannot see anyway I would end up paying 5 times the price you think is appropriate. @ProofCollection points out ; the number of coins that fall within your budget range is far more important than just how many pieces exist. However.
I don't know how patient you are; I spent 14 years waiting for an 1842 LG Date Seated Quarter to come on the market in a grade below XF. One year is really not that long in my collecting history to pursue a coin. It is always easier to tell someone else what to do but I think you should see if another coin might come on the market. Sometimes there is nothing and then later several pieces may come on the market. Good luck no matter what you do. James
Paying 5x "current value" is subjective in some ways.
For instance, if the "current value" is $100, that is a LOT different, for many here, than if it were $2000.
5x $100 is $500. Stil out there, but doable for most here.
5x $2000 is $10,000. A different beast for the budget of many here.
I say this because, years ago, I saw a toned "common", modern, coin. Slabbed, PCGS. Toning was nice. That common coin was cheap. With the toning, it went for OVER 5x value. I bailed out around 3x.
Never did see it, or one like it again. Lesser toned ones, that still had premiums, yes, but never as nice a one.
What was the final price? Something around $100.
Could I have afforded it? Yep...easily. I just got caught up in the "I may never be able to sell it for what I paid and I'm stupid if I buy it for a higher price".
I still have the "replacement", more than 20 years later, so I would have still had that coin and, from what I've seen, I would have gotten my money back if I chose to sell it.
Without knowing the actual coin, I'll reserve judgement.
As an aside...if it were a morgan...I'd probably pass at 5x
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
Here is some additional information:
When I bought my 1927-S in 64. I paid over 65% above retail. I got into a bidding war. The strike was phenomenal and so were the surfaces and it looked better than most 65s that I’d seen and it was still priced less than a 65. I got it into my head that I HAD to have it. A Close Walker friend, at the time, chastised me and told me that I paid way too much. He meant well and was only saying it for my own good. You can call me a fool but that coin was unique and special and I knew that I would never replace it and I wanted a good, quality example for my set. Besides, at least one other person (The underbidder) recognized it’s high quality, as well. I still don’t regret it and prices have risen since then. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it..😉
That’s one of maybe seven times out of well over 100 times that I really paid more than I should have. Most other times I paid around PCGS retail. I have also gotten some real ‘you suck’ sort of bargains on extremely rare, high end material. Remember, there will always be winners and losers in your collection But if you show a net profit, you are ahead of the game. Also, if you are a specialist in your series and you recognize a coin with unique attributes, then paying up or paying more than fair market value is not always a bad thing.
The short answer to the OP’s question is:
Sometimes, you can’t avoid it but it is not always necessarily a bad idea.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Agreed! I picked up an extremely rare Massachusetts silver not too long ago in which the last “fresh” coin came to market over 40 years ago. Second finest known to boot!
Sometimes it's hard to find the just-right-for-me example of a thing on my list -- and part of the package for me involves a price that feels reasonable relative to known comparables and the merits of the particular coin in question. I've waited as long as 20 years for the right coin before. To the extent that the collection comprises a small but not completely trivial piece of our net worth, I try to look at the whole thing as a matter of responsible stewardship of my family's resources. With the caveat that none of us can know the future, if the purchase of any coin does not seem like a reasonably promising avenue for preservation of purchasing power, I just don't buy it.