@MFeld said:
Both the NGC and PCGS price guides show a value of $27,500 for the coin, which is an MS63 1911-D $10.
At the same time, the CDN and CDN CPG values are listed at $12,600 and $15,000 respectively.
Mark, are NGC and PCGS employing any algorithim to your knowledge ? Even if the coin once traded near $27,500....the 5 most recent trades you cited -- which go back almost 5 years -- are all for under $16,000. I don't see how a price guide could come up with $27,500.
Even if it traded up to that level during a previous bubble-like period 10-15 years ago, I don't see how any mechanical or human interpolator could weigh it enough to skew the current price value high.
I don't think this is a lag issue....looks to me like they're either trying to predict the future for an illiquid coin and grade (it only sold at auction 5 times in 4-plus years) or the algorithim is wacky. For all we know, this coin has NEVER traded above $20,000 -- the highest in the last 5 years you posted was $15,600 -- and yet we have a price that is basically double what we see from October 2020 onward.
@MFeld said:
Below are the last five auction results (rounded to the nearest hundred dollars) I could find for a coin I was researching today.
$12,600 January 2025
$15,600 January 2025
$14,400 January, 2023
$13,400 October, 2020
$13,800 October, 2020
Four of the five coins are PCGS examples and in the case, the PCGS and NGC price guide values happen to be identical.
Guess the price guide value.
Hints: 1) This isn't meant to be a trick question. 2) I'm dismayed when I see price guide values which appear to be unrealistically, if not absurdly high. 3) I see a lot of such prices these days.
Updating this thread with the answer...
Both the NGC and PCGS price guides show a value of $27,500 for the coin, which is an MS63 1911-D $10.
At the same time, the CDN and CDN CPG values are listed at $12,600 and $15,000 respectively.
To me, it's disconcerting that so many price guide values appear to be far removed from reality. In some cases, it might be because there haven't been any recent sales to take into account or there's a lag time in adjusting prices. In others, however, try as I might, I can't think of a good excuse for them.
Some guy on the bay is asking $35,900 for his. $27.5K seems like a bargain. Of course this may not even be the coin you receive?????
Seller Notes “You will receive the nicest, not necessarily the imaged coin.”
Sellers are entitled to ask whatever they want. But that doesn't mean the price guide price isn't highly inflated. I know of one being offered for less than half the price of the one you posted.
@MFeld said:
Below are the last five auction results (rounded to the nearest hundred dollars) I could find for a coin I was researching today.
$12,600 January 2025
$15,600 January 2025
$14,400 January, 2023
$13,400 October, 2020
$13,800 October, 2020
Four of the five coins are PCGS examples and in the case, the PCGS and NGC price guide values happen to be identical.
Guess the price guide value.
Hints: 1) This isn't meant to be a trick question. 2) I'm dismayed when I see price guide values which appear to be unrealistically, if not absurdly high. 3) I see a lot of such prices these days.
Updating this thread with the answer...
Both the NGC and PCGS price guides show a value of $27,500 for the coin, which is an MS63 1911-D $10.
At the same time, the CDN and CDN CPG values are listed at $12,600 and $15,000 respectively.
To me, it's disconcerting that so many price guide values appear to be far removed from reality. In some cases, it might be because there haven't been any recent sales to take into account or there's a lag time in adjusting prices. In others, however, try as I might, I can't think of a good excuse for them.
Based on your posting and my previous poll, "Which Price Guide Would You Use," I have a new respect for CDN and CDN CPG values.
@MFeld said:
Both the NGC and PCGS price guides show a value of $27,500 for the coin, which is an MS63 1911-D $10.
At the same time, the CDN and CDN CPG values are listed at $12,600 and $15,000 respectively.
Mark, are NGC and PCGS employing any algorithim to your knowledge ? Even if the coin once traded near $27,500....the 5 most recent trades you cited -- which go back almost 5 years -- are all for under $16,000. I don't see how a price guide could come up with $27,500.
Even if it traded up to that level during a previous bubble-like period 10-15 years ago, I don't see how any mechanical or human interpolator could weigh it enough to skew the current price value high.
I don't think this is a lag issue....looks to me like they're either trying to predict the future for an illiquid coin and grade (it only sold at auction 5 times in 4-plus years) or the algorithim is wacky. For all we know, this coin has NEVER traded above $20,000 -- the highest in the last 5 years you posted was $15,600 -- and yet we have a price that is basically double what we see from October 2020 onward.
Very strange, indeed.....
Sorry, I have no idea regarding the use of algorithims.
But even if not to the same degree as this one, many coins with recent enough multiple sales results still have unrealistically high price guide values.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@MFeld said:
An additional update:
The NGC price guide value has since been lowered to $21,500.
Looks like they stayed up all night ready to change the guide just in case you made a 4:00 am post with the answer.
😊 Not quite, but…
I have an extremely conscientious contact at NGC to whom I report prices from their price guide which appear to merit updates. I never recommend a specific price level or debate his decisions. But, while he doesn’t always agree with me, in each case, he performs his research and makes whatever adjustments he feels are warranted. Kudos to him for that.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@MFeld said: > Sorry, I have no idea regarding the use of algorithims.
But even if not to the same degree as this one, many coins with recent enough multiple sales results still have >unrealistically high price guide values.
Maybe sellers/price guides now believe we are in a new bull market for coins (or at least the bear market is over as evidenced by the PCGS 3000).....and they'd rather be a bit high than a bit low (or even way high as opposed to way low ) ?
Interesting thread, thanks for creating it. Very thought-provoking.
@MFeld said: > Sorry, I have no idea regarding the use of algorithims.
But even if not to the same degree as this one, many coins with recent enough multiple sales results still have >unrealistically high price guide values.
Maybe sellers/price guides now believe we are in a new bull market for coins (or at least the bear market is over as evidenced by the PCGS 3000).....and they'd rather be a bit high than a bit low (or even way high as opposed to way low ) ?
Interesting thread, thanks for creating it. Very thought-provoking.
And then again, maybe that hypothesis was way off base and quite funny.😉
Thank you for your nice comment.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Maybe sellers/price guides now believe we are in a new bull market for coins (or at least the bear market is over as evidenced by the PCGS 3000).....and they'd rather be a bit high than a bit low (or even way high as opposed to way low ) ?
The PCGS3000 index isn't even keeping up with inflation. In the past 12 months, it's only up 1.6%. The accompanying chart, which inexplicably ends in Aug 2022, would have you believe otherwise (at least at first glance).
@MFeld said:
Below are the last five auction results (rounded to the nearest hundred dollars) I could find for a coin I was researching today.
$12,600 January 2025
$15,600 January 2025
$14,400 January, 2023
$13,400 October, 2020
$13,800 October, 2020
Four of the five coins are PCGS examples and in the case, the PCGS and NGC price guide values happen to be identical.
Guess the price guide value.
Hints: 1) This isn't meant to be a trick question. 2) I'm dismayed when I see price guide values which appear to be unrealistically, if not absurdly high. 3) I see a lot of such prices these days.
I like your idea. I wish this thread could turn into one where a dealer member could post a coin (for sale) that no one has access to auction records or images so we could guess what his price was. I think we could learn more about values and why the coin is priced the way it is. We would need to GTG also in our minds so we could guess a price.
Comments
A good example of how much the prices have fallen for this issue.
Sept 2014, hammered for over $ 29K
https://www.pcgs.com/auctionprices/item/1911-d-10/8869/-4458742946117268024
Same coin, June 2020, just under $ 14K
https://www.pcgs.com/auctionprices/item/1911-d-10/8869/4308180217945383180
Believe the price guide is derived from auction results ; it simply has not appreciably adjusted.
Steve
Mark, are NGC and PCGS employing any algorithim to your knowledge ? Even if the coin once traded near $27,500....the 5 most recent trades you cited -- which go back almost 5 years -- are all for under $16,000. I don't see how a price guide could come up with $27,500.
Even if it traded up to that level during a previous bubble-like period 10-15 years ago, I don't see how any mechanical or human interpolator could weigh it enough to skew the current price value high.
I don't think this is a lag issue....looks to me like they're either trying to predict the future for an illiquid coin and grade (it only sold at auction 5 times in 4-plus years) or the algorithim is wacky. For all we know, this coin has NEVER traded above $20,000 -- the highest in the last 5 years you posted was $15,600 -- and yet we have a price that is basically double what we see from October 2020 onward.
Very strange, indeed.....
That's probably the one CCN is trying to sell
Collector, occasional seller
If I ran a TPG, I might be motivated to keep my price guide artificially high to maximize the 1% premium added to certain grading events…
A good buyer will know how to look at the coin and decide what they think it's worth.
Look at that ms-62 outlier.
Looks like they stayed up all night ready to change the guide just in case you made a 4:00 am post with the answer.
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
It's a bit high but not as far off some other nickels, one is in the Hanson collection and the other was a cross from NGC MS67FS.
Based on your posting and my previous poll, "Which Price Guide Would You Use," I have a new respect for CDN and CDN CPG values.
Sorry, I have no idea regarding the use of algorithims.
But even if not to the same degree as this one, many coins with recent enough multiple sales results still have unrealistically high price guide values.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Thank you!!! You've made my day.
John
Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com)
PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
😊 Not quite, but…
I have an extremely conscientious contact at NGC to whom I report prices from their price guide which appear to merit updates. I never recommend a specific price level or debate his decisions. But, while he doesn’t always agree with me, in each case, he performs his research and makes whatever adjustments he feels are warranted. Kudos to him for that.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Maybe sellers/price guides now believe we are in a new bull market for coins (or at least the bear market is over as evidenced by the PCGS 3000).....and they'd rather be a bit high than a bit low (or even way high as opposed to way low
) ?
Interesting thread, thanks for creating it. Very thought-provoking.
And then again, maybe that hypothesis was way off base and quite funny.😉
Thank you for your nice comment.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
The PCGS3000 index isn't even keeping up with inflation. In the past 12 months, it's only up 1.6%. The accompanying chart, which inexplicably ends in Aug 2022, would have you believe otherwise (at least at first glance).
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
Well, I guess that was slightly more entertaining than just a plain ole gtg.
😁
I like your idea. I wish this thread could turn into one where a dealer member could post a coin (for sale) that no one has access to auction records or images so we could guess what his price was. I think we could learn more about values and why the coin is priced the way it is. We would need to GTG also in our minds so we could guess a price.
HUGELY more entertaining than GTG. Thanks Mark!
30+ years coin shop experience (ret.) Coins, bullion, currency, scrap & interesting folks. Loved every minute!