A breather from all the GTG threads... how about a GTPG (guess the price guide) exercise?
MFeld
Posts: 14,072 ✭✭✭✭✭
Below are the last five auction results (rounded to the nearest hundred dollars) I could find for a coin I was researching today.
$12,600 January 2025
$15,600 January 2025
$14,400 January, 2023
$13,400 October, 2020
$13,800 October, 2020
Four of the five coins are PCGS examples and in the case, the PCGS and NGC price guide values happen to be identical.
Guess the price guide value.
Hints: 1) This isn't meant to be a trick question. 2) I'm dismayed when I see price guide values which appear to be unrealistically, if not absurdly high. 3) I see a lot of such prices these days.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
4
Comments
with #2 you alert us to be on guard for absurdly high... but is that a distraction and it's absurdly low?
anyway, i'll bite $19.000 (if i go over am i excluded from receiving the prize?)
Please read #1 again.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Are any of the sold prices cac stickered? Do you have knowledge of updated price guide change since 2020?
Anyway, I will say based on what I have seen with outrageous price guides that it is in the 26k range currently.
wow
brain slippage off pain induced no sleep and age (pain resolved now, may as well go into fri night to sleep) tmi?
dutch auction $18,800?
That's a good question about CAC, and the answer is no. If any of the coins had been stickered I would have included that information.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
i was also thinking of toners
17,500 if I have guessed the coin correctly
I’ll take $21,000 - just from my passing familiarity with ‘price guides’ vs. auction reality for many 5-figure coins.
30+ years coin shop experience (ret.) Coins, bullion, currency, scrap & interesting folks. Loved every minute!
$19,500. Many times the price guides are 20 to 30 percent above recent auction sales.
Stating the obvious, price guides are trailing indicators and, from the history provided, the trend is mostly upward except for the last sale that appear to be an anomaly. My safety guess is 14.5K.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Which price guide?
Greysheet $14k
PCGS price guide $17.5k
PCGS and NGC
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Successful transactions with : MICHAELDIXON, Manorcourtman, Bochiman, bolivarshagnasty, AUandAG, onlyroosies, chumley, Weiss, jdimmick, BAJJERFAN, gene1978, TJM965, Smittys, GRANDAM, JTHawaii, mainejoe, softparade, derryb
Bad transactions with : nobody to date
$16,583
Mr_Spud
$16,000
Collector
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Out of my price range so I don't know if this runs true but i take lowest price from within a few years and highest. 12,600 plus 14400 = 27,000 divide by 2 = 13,500 multiply bt 20% (the amoiunt i usually find guides are off by equals $16,200. James
PS @MsMorrisine . Some times the majic works. Sometimes it doesn't. TMI I start each day with 60 mil of morphine.
It appears that quite a few respondents either missed or ignored hint #2 in my opening post:
“I'm dismayed when I see price guide values which appear to be unrealistically, if not absurdly high.”
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Since you just posted that clue, I’ll put in a 2nd guess at $29,463
Mr_Spud
Yes, I did! I was thinking how I would price the coin. OK, I'll change my guess to $18,000. Probably not "absurd" enough!
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
I reposted that clue, as it was in my opening post.
And by the way, have you seen numbers like “463” as part of five figure price guide values for NGC and PCGS? I don’t think I have.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
The NGC and PCGS PGs are at $20k; However, the JW77 PG would be at $15k
For some reason I interpreted that as the PG on this coin is not absurdly high. I’ll revise my guess to $23,000
Collector
75 Positive BST transactions buying and selling with 45 members and counting!
instagram.com/klnumismatics
40,000 & 1965 5C MS66 FS
What was the reason for mentioning MS66 FS 1965 nickels?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Price guides are $25,000.
Based on:
1. expensive coin is not a CAC
2. bargain hunters hoping to get it for half price guide
3. the lowest high bid was $12,600
If it were a CAC, it would sell close to price guide.
While I didn’t mean to imply that the price guide values weren’t absurdly high, in fairness to you, I can see how you might have interpreted it that way.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
$16500 1878 7TF $1 Reverse of 1878, MS66+ DMPL
Jim
When a man who is honestly mistaken hears the truth, he will either quit being mistaken or cease to be honest....Abraham Lincoln
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.....Mark Twain
I'll guess the price guide lists this at $23,500
but if we're talking really absurd, maybe we go an even $30k
Collector, occasional seller
hmm. absurd. let's go plaid: $37,500
Ummm… maybe if you have a complete set of slabbed coins 😉
Mr_Spud
I'll go $25,000.00
$27,500
If we were all the same, the world would be an incredibly boring place.
Tommy
$18,200
OMG ... My Mother was Right about Everything!
I wake up with a Good Attitude Every Day. Then … Idiots Happen!
I'll go with $27k.
Coin Photographer.
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
I love games of chance such as this. There is no downside.
I'll guess $47,000.00- give or take a grand or two.
peacockcoins
I was right there close to you @braddick
$48.k price guides is my WAG, and I'm sticking to it
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
I was reading your mind but turns out it was only mine😆
18k, but I prefer gtg threads.
I’ll guess 19K.
33K
$50,000
Price Guide = $24,000.
I skipped ahead after reading a few posts so as not to obtain any "illegal" inside information.
I'm thrown by the 20% difference in the two January 2025 bids. A $3,000 difference in a coin costing about $12,000 (without any CAC difference) or a terrible over/under grading....is strange.
I'm going to say that the dropoff with the most recent sale is discounted....the trend before dominates..... $15,000.
That price is high and "sticky" relative to Mark's comment about absurdly high prices.
Updating this thread with the answer...
Both the NGC and PCGS price guides show a value of $27,500 for the coin, which is an MS63 1911-D $10.
At the same time, the CDN and CDN CPG values are listed at $12,600 and $15,000 respectively.
To me, it's disconcerting that so many price guide values appear to be far removed from reality. In some cases, it might be because there haven't been any recent sales to take into account or there's a lag time in adjusting prices. In others, however, try as I might, I can't think of a good excuse for them.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
An additional update:
The NGC price guide value has since been lowered to $21,500.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Some guy on the bay is asking $35,900 for his. $27.5K seems like a bargain. Of course this may not even be the coin you receive?????
Seller Notes “You will receive the nicest, not necessarily the imaged coin.”
Sellers are entitled to ask whatever they want. But that doesn't mean the price guide price isn't highly inflated.
I know of one being offered for less than half the price of the one you posted.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Yes sir, I know. I was being somewhat sarcastic in my posting. Does the dealer really think he's going to find a buyer at almost 3x recent auction results not to mention the coin posted isn't even the one likely to be received. I'm left baffled as to how this guy has completed any transactions....and I agree 100% that the TPGs price guides are SEVERELY inflated. RGDS!