@jmski52 said:
Well, it took 32 years, but the premiums are about where they should've been all along. My opinion.
And now they're even lower.
It's been pretty clear since the move back to $2000+ (2016-2020) that premiums at higher levels would all eventually
evaporate except for the very scarcest of better dates. Even MS66 Saints lost much of their premiums to the MS64/65's. It used to be 30-50%. Now down to 7.5%. If gold moves past $5,000 and higher, we could even see MS67 Saint premiums wilt away as well. On the good side, it opens up an arbitrage to trade out of less gold into better dates and grades, to have a lot more cushion on the way down when premiums expand back in the other direction.
I recall when I first starting putting away slabbed MS64 Saints in April 2004 that they were nearly 2X the price of gold....Saints $635 vs gold at $320/oz. They seemed the best bang for the buck. The MS65 Saints at that time were around $1000 as I recall.....and 66's around $2000. That worked for that time as gold coin grading in 65/66 grades was much more strict.
Even if we went back to 1993 (-32 yrs) MS 64 slabbed Saints were still around $1000. Generally each additional grading point from MS64 to MS66 doubled the price. The tiny quantity of slabbed gem gold kept the prices high until more units showed up.
@roadrunner said:
Even if we went back to 1993 (-32 yrs) MS 64 slabbed Saints were still around $1000. Generally each additional grading point from MS64 to MS66 doubled the price. The tiny quantity of slabbed gem gold kept the prices high until more units showed up.
Even assuming those 64s are now 65s, one would have realized a return of about 4%/yr. A 30 yr treasury bond in 1993 was yielding 6.5%.
@roadrunner said:
I recall when I first starting putting away slabbed MS64 Saints in April 2004 that they were nearly 2X the price of >gold....Saints $635 vs gold at $320/oz. They seemed the best bang for the buck. The MS65 Saints at that time were >around $1000 as I recall.....and 66's around $2000. That worked for that time as gold coin grading in 65/66 grades >was much more strict.
Excellent point, RR. But WHY were the premiums then as I have also noted in the chart below (this one for MS-62's) ?
I get that premiums will be sticky to the downside so when gold is artificially depressed as it was in 2004 or even from the 1990's.....the premium % is high even though it's not that big in absolute terms. But I'm surprised at your quotes for an MS-66 when gold is cheap vs. pricey.
Generally each additional grading point from MS64 to MS66 doubled the price. The tiny quantity of slabbed gem >gold kept the prices high until more units showed up.
That's a good point, RR....the QUANTITY of TPG coins today for the same grades has expanded a ton.
More supply = lower premiums (prices).
Do you think others are aware of this little-known fact ? Most analysts I have seen focus on the premium rely on how you want to maintain a premium when prices fall to offset higher risk...and when gold is flying, the pure metal is the best outperformer over time.
What has happened when the premiums were narrow in the past is that gold has tended to FALL in price. Conversely, when the premiums were large the gold price would RISE in price.
So if this gold bull market is different this time (!) then buying TPG MS Saints will NOT turn out to be a bad purchase because gold will continue to rise and there isn't much premium to evaporate. If the normal pattern continued, we'd expect gold to fall and the TPG MS Saints to fall LESS and thus the premium to expand, protecting the investment in an MS coin.
@CoinPhysicist said:
Can the moderators close this thread? Clearly no one commenting has any desire to keep to the topics that I >wanted to talk about in this thread.
@RedneckHB said:
Even assuming those 64s are now 65s, one would have realized a return of about 4%/yr. A 30 yr treasury bond in >1993 was yielding 6.5%.
That's pretty much what one should expect, even if one buys high-end or even "Trophy" coins. I tracked the numbers for lots of them and unless a buyer got LUCKY -- buying at a depressed time and selling at a strong time -- the returns were usually MSDs, 4-7%. Competitive with bonds, but not with stocks.
@RedneckHB said:
Even assuming those 64s are now 65s, one would have realized a return of about 4%/yr. A 30 yr treasury bond in >1993 was yielding 6.5%.
That's pretty much what one should expect, even if one buys high-end or even "Trophy" coins. I tracked the numbers for lots of them and unless a buyer got LUCKY -- buying at a depressed time and selling at a strong time -- the returns were usually MSDs, 4-7%. Competitive with bonds, but not with stocks.
.
I suppose you would say that if a person bought a stock at a depressed time and sold at a strong time, that person would be astute.
But if a person did the same thing with a coin they were just "lucky" ?
I find that contention to be ridiculous.
A person who buys and sells a coin can be every bit as knowledgeable and astute as a successful stock speculator.
@dcarr said:
I suppose you would say that if a person bought a stock at a depressed time and sold at a strong time, that person >would be astute. But if a person did the same thing with a coin they were just "lucky" ?
I find that contention to be ridiculous. A person who buys and sells a coin can be every bit as knowledgeable and >astute as a successful stock speculator.
Stocks participate in the real growth of the economy whereas PM's and coins do NOT. PM's and coins offer lower returns with higher volatility and disperson of returns than a portfolio of common stocks.
Using rolling time periods to eliminate timing bias -- no "lucky" buying low or selling high or both -- gold, PM's, and coins lag bigtime.
Read Jeremy Seigel's "Stocks For The Long Run" for more.
@dcarr said:
I suppose you would say that if a person bought a stock at a depressed time and sold at a strong time, that person >would be astute. But if a person did the same thing with a coin they were just "lucky" ?
I find that contention to be ridiculous. A person who buys and sells a coin can be every bit as knowledgeable and >astute as a successful stock speculator.
Stocks participate in the real growth of the economy whereas PM's and coins do NOT. PM's and coins offer lower returns with higher volatility and disperson of returns than a portfolio of common stocks.
Using rolling time periods to eliminate timing bias -- no "lucky" buying low or selling high or both -- gold, PM's, and coins lag bigtime.
Read Jeremy Seigel's "Stocks For The Long Run" for more.
.
I have no interest in speculating on stocks at this point.
I’ve always liked Type 2 $20’s. When I came back to Illinois from Washington state around 1999 I had a box of 20 type2 $20’s. All in OGH in a green PCGS box back then. They were all common 73,75,76 in MS61 cost me about $400 each some a little cheaper and one MS62. Only a memory today.
@roadrunner said:
I recall when I first starting putting away slabbed MS64 Saints in April 2004 that they were nearly 2X the price of >gold....Saints $635 vs gold at $320/oz. They seemed the best bang for the buck. The MS65 Saints at that time were >around $1000 as I recall.....and 66's around $2000. That worked for that time as gold coin grading in 65/66 grades >was much more strict....Even if we went back to 1993 (-32 yrs) MS 64 slabbed Saints were still around $1000. >Generally each additional grading point from MS64 to MS66 doubled the price. The tiny quantity of slabbed gem >gold kept the prices high until more units showed up.
Outstanding post, RR.
I was somewhat surprised to hear that MS-66 Saints were $2,000 or 5-6x the bullion price. I knew the premium then would be higher than with today's higher gold price but I didn't know (and wouldn't have guessed) it would be that much higher.
Note also the prices you quoted have the MS-66 at 2x that of the MS-65. For most of my time studying the Saint market, it's been about 25-50%.
@roadrunner said:
Even if we went back to 1993 (-32 yrs) MS 64 slabbed Saints were still around $1000. Generally each additional grading point from MS64 to MS66 doubled the price. The tiny quantity of slabbed gem gold kept the prices high until more units showed up.
Even assuming those 64s are now 65s, one would have realized a return of about 4%/yr. A 30 yr treasury bond in 1993 was yielding 6.5%.
.
You should liquidate everything you own and put every cent into Treasury Bonds right away
@roadrunner said:
Even if we went back to 1993 (-32 yrs) MS 64 slabbed Saints were still around $1000. Generally each additional grading point from MS64 to MS66 doubled the price. The tiny quantity of slabbed gem gold kept the prices high until more units showed up.
Even assuming those 64s are now 65s, one would have realized a return of about 4%/yr. A 30 yr treasury bond in 1993 was yielding 6.5%.
.
You should liquidate everything you own and put every cent into Treasury Bonds right away
.
Done that twice already in the last 18 months. Double digit returns + interest. Eagerly looking for another point.
@roadrunner said:
Even if we went back to 1993 (-32 yrs) MS 64 slabbed Saints were still around $1000. Generally each additional grading point from MS64 to MS66 doubled the price. The tiny quantity of slabbed gem gold kept the prices high until more units showed up.
Even assuming those 64s are now 65s, one would have realized a return of about 4%/yr. A 30 yr treasury bond in 1993 was yielding 6.5%.
.
You should liquidate everything you own and put every cent into Treasury Bonds right away
.
Done that twice already in the last 18 months. Double digit returns + interest. Might be another entry point when Powell gets the boot.
Thanks for your advice.:)
.
So you sold all your gold and bought Treasury Bonds.
Gold has had much higher returns during this period.
@roadrunner said:
Even if we went back to 1993 (-32 yrs) MS 64 slabbed Saints were still around $1000. Generally each additional grading point from MS64 to MS66 doubled the price. The tiny quantity of slabbed gem gold kept the prices high until more units showed up.
Even assuming those 64s are now 65s, one would have realized a return of about 4%/yr. A 30 yr treasury bond in 1993 was yielding 6.5%.
.
You should liquidate everything you own and put every cent into Treasury Bonds right away
.
Done that twice already in the last 18 months. Double digit returns + interest. Might be another entry point when Powell gets the boot.
Thanks for your advice.:)
.
So you sold all your gold and bought Treasury Bonds.
Gold has had much higher returns during this period.
.
And I've sold t-bonds.
And I've bought gold and sold gold.
And myriad other investments have had greater returns than gold. Not sure what your getting at.
@jmski52 said:
List a few of these "myriad investments". Inquiring minds want to know.
Equities, etfs and various options strategies.
.
Those are all speculations, not "investments".
.
Maybe for you, not for me.
One man's token is another man's trinket, right?
.
You apparently don't know what an "investment" is.
If you buy more than 50% ownership in a company and/or be a significant activist in the company, that is an investment.
Everything else, ETFs, options, futures, etc, are purely speculative.
@jmski52 said:
List a few of these "myriad investments". Inquiring minds want to know.
Equities, etfs and various options strategies.
.
Those are all speculations, not "investments".
.
Maybe for you, not for me.
One man's token is another man's trinket, right?
.
You apparently don't know what an "investment" is.
If you buy more than 50% ownership in a company and/or be a significant activist in the company, that is an investment.
Everything else, ETFs, options, futures, etc, are purely speculative.
.
Time, labor and love are also investments. But, hey, thanks again for the advice. Much appreciated!! You keep doing you!!
Comments
their gold content is identical and are therefore similar bullion plays. Collectability based on condition and date will set them apart.
Capital investment depends on confidence. - Martin Armstrong
It's been pretty clear since the move back to $2000+ (2016-2020) that premiums at higher levels would all eventually
evaporate except for the very scarcest of better dates. Even MS66 Saints lost much of their premiums to the MS64/65's. It used to be 30-50%. Now down to 7.5%. If gold moves past $5,000 and higher, we could even see MS67 Saint premiums wilt away as well. On the good side, it opens up an arbitrage to trade out of less gold into better dates and grades, to have a lot more cushion on the way down when premiums expand back in the other direction.
I recall when I first starting putting away slabbed MS64 Saints in April 2004 that they were nearly 2X the price of gold....Saints $635 vs gold at $320/oz. They seemed the best bang for the buck. The MS65 Saints at that time were around $1000 as I recall.....and 66's around $2000. That worked for that time as gold coin grading in 65/66 grades was much more strict.
Even if we went back to 1993 (-32 yrs) MS 64 slabbed Saints were still around $1000. Generally each additional grading point from MS64 to MS66 doubled the price. The tiny quantity of slabbed gem gold kept the prices high until more units showed up.
Even assuming those 64s are now 65s, one would have realized a return of about 4%/yr. A 30 yr treasury bond in 1993 was yielding 6.5%.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Excellent point, RR. But WHY were the premiums then as I have also noted in the chart below (this one for MS-62's) ?
I get that premiums will be sticky to the downside so when gold is artificially depressed as it was in 2004 or even from the 1990's.....the premium % is high even though it's not that big in absolute terms. But I'm surprised at your quotes for an MS-66 when gold is cheap vs. pricey.
That's a good point, RR....the QUANTITY of TPG coins today for the same grades has expanded a ton.
More supply = lower premiums (prices).
Do you think others are aware of this little-known fact ? Most analysts I have seen focus on the premium rely on how you want to maintain a premium when prices fall to offset higher risk...and when gold is flying, the pure metal is the best outperformer over time.
Even though the absolute number of MS-67's is dwarfed by the MS-66's and MS-65's ?
What has happened when the premiums were narrow in the past is that gold has tended to FALL in price. Conversely, when the premiums were large the gold price would RISE in price.
So if this gold bull market is different this time (!) then buying TPG MS Saints will NOT turn out to be a bad purchase because gold will continue to rise and there isn't much premium to evaporate. If the normal pattern continued, we'd expect gold to fall and the TPG MS Saints to fall LESS and thus the premium to expand, protecting the investment in an MS coin.
This is one of the best threads at CU.
IMO gold content is a very small component of type 67s. Low population counts and registry competition drives the majority of market value.
That's pretty much what one should expect, even if one buys high-end or even "Trophy" coins. I tracked the numbers for lots of them and unless a buyer got LUCKY -- buying at a depressed time and selling at a strong time -- the returns were usually MSDs, 4-7%. Competitive with bonds, but not with stocks.
.
I suppose you would say that if a person bought a stock at a depressed time and sold at a strong time, that person would be astute.
But if a person did the same thing with a coin they were just "lucky" ?
I find that contention to be ridiculous.
A person who buys and sells a coin can be every bit as knowledgeable and astute as a successful stock speculator.
.
Stocks participate in the real growth of the economy whereas PM's and coins do NOT. PM's and coins offer lower returns with higher volatility and disperson of returns than a portfolio of common stocks.
Using rolling time periods to eliminate timing bias -- no "lucky" buying low or selling high or both -- gold, PM's, and coins lag bigtime.
Read Jeremy Seigel's "Stocks For The Long Run" for more.
.
I have no interest in speculating on stocks at this point.
.
Best way to acquire slabbed gold at a reasonable premium is to hand out business cards to future widows
the only collectors who won't sob over unreturned premiums are chillin at room temperature
ok now the mods can shut this thread down on a high note
I’ve always liked Type 2 $20’s. When I came back to Illinois from Washington state around 1999 I had a box of 20 type2 $20’s. All in OGH in a green PCGS box back then. They were all common 73,75,76 in MS61 cost me about $400 each some a little cheaper and one MS62. Only a memory today.
Outstanding post, RR.
I was somewhat surprised to hear that MS-66 Saints were $2,000 or 5-6x the bullion price. I knew the premium then would be higher than with today's higher gold price but I didn't know (and wouldn't have guessed) it would be that much higher.
Note also the prices you quoted have the MS-66 at 2x that of the MS-65. For most of my time studying the Saint market, it's been about 25-50%.
.
You should liquidate everything you own and put every cent into Treasury Bonds right away
.
Done that twice already in the last 18 months. Double digit returns + interest. Eagerly looking for another point.
Thanks for your advice.:)
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
So you sold all your gold and bought Treasury Bonds.
Gold has had much higher returns during this period.
.
And I've sold t-bonds.
And I've bought gold and sold gold.
And myriad other investments have had greater returns than gold. Not sure what your getting at.
Appreciate your advice though.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
List a few of these "myriad investments". Inquiring minds want to know.
I knew it would happen.
Equities, etfs and various options strategies.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
Those are all speculations, not "investments".
.
Maybe for you, not for me.
One man's token is another man's trinket, right?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Example...one of my gold positions went UP 29% today.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
.
You apparently don't know what an "investment" is.
If you buy more than 50% ownership in a company and/or be a significant activist in the company, that is an investment.
Everything else, ETFs, options, futures, etc, are purely speculative.
.
Time, labor and love are also investments. But, hey, thanks again for the advice. Much appreciated!! You keep doing you!!
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Example...one of my gold positions went UP 29% today.
That was yesterday. And today?
Which is doing better, your t-bonds or your paper gold?
I knew it would happen.
Would be up another 40% today but I closed out yesterday. 29% in 4 hours is good enough for me.
What's doing better today, t-bonds or physical gold? This is a fun game we can play, isn't it?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Would be up another 40% today but I closed out yesterday. 29% in 4 hours is good enough for me.
You didn't say how much you lost in your offsetting position.
I knew it would happen.
Because there was no offsetting position.
Edited to add...would have been up an additional 65%.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear