It's not rocket science to understand what happens to the currency when the Fed pumps trillions into the bond market in order to keep the markets from imploding. You can't have it both ways, and you're gonna have to choose between your stocks and precious metals. Chickens don't count.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said:
It's not rocket science to understand what happens to the currency when the Fed pumps trillions into the bond market in order to keep the markets from imploding. You can't have it both ways, and you're gonna have to choose between your stocks and precious metals. Chickens don't count.
@dcarr said:
Sears Roebuck & Co. (removed from S&P 500 in 2012);
Radio Shack (removed from S&P 500 in 2011);
Lehman Brothers (removed from S&P 500 in 2008);
Enron (removed from S&P 500 in 2001).
Survivor bias is non-existent if you hold an index mutual fund or ETF. Nobody holds all 500 stocks except ETF participating broker dealers.
@dcarr said:
Sears Roebuck & Co. (removed from S&P 500 in 2012);
Radio Shack (removed from S&P 500 in 2011);
Lehman Brothers (removed from S&P 500 in 2008);
Enron (removed from S&P 500 in 2001).
Survivor bias is non-existent if you hold an index mutual fund or ETF. Nobody holds all 500 stocks except ETF participating broker dealers.
.
What if an entity were to sell short all the individual stocks in the S&P 500, and go long the index itself by an equal amount ?
When a particular stock is dropped from the S&P, the price of that stock will likely drop. After said drop, buy that stock to close out the short position in it. And when a new stock is added to the S&P, the price of that stock will often go up. After the initial increase, sell short that individual stock to keep everything balanced.
Is there a transaction or "finance" cost in holding a short position in a stock for an extended period of time ?
@jmski52 said:
It's not rocket science to understand what happens to the currency when the Fed pumps trillions into the bond market in order to keep the markets from imploding. You can't have it both ways, and you're gonna have to choose between your stocks and precious metals. Chickens don't count.
Sure they do and I own and will continue to own all of the above. It's called diversification and P.S. I sleep like a baby. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
@dcarr said:
Sears Roebuck & Co. (removed from S&P 500 in 2012);
Radio Shack (removed from S&P 500 in 2011);
Lehman Brothers (removed from S&P 500 in 2008);
Enron (removed from S&P 500 in 2001).
Survivor bias is non-existent if you hold an index mutual fund or ETF. Nobody holds all 500 stocks except ETF participating broker dealers.
.
Is there a transaction or "finance" cost in holding a short position in a stock for an extended period of time ?
.
Yes, when you short a stock you are "borrowing" it from someone else therefore you will have to pay the brokers margin rate. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
@jmski52 said:
It's not rocket science to understand what happens to the currency when the Fed pumps trillions into the bond market in order to keep the markets from imploding. You can't have it both ways, and you're gonna have to choose between your stocks and precious metals. Chickens don't count.
Your position might be proven correct in 50 or 500 years or never.
I suspect most Americans will take a steady, diversified 8-10% a year.
Premiums have really shrunk so you will need a much higher gold price for the OP to come to fruition.
Still.....some of you vets probably can remember when you had to goto the MS-67 or even MS-68 level (if available) to hit the $3,000 level for a common Saint !!
Well, I nailed the direction of gold nicely -- was even too conservative there -- but I totally misunderstood how premiums would act in the face of a rising gold price.
Kudos to the vets here like PeakR and MFeld for nailing the premiums vs. rising gold prices dichotomy. I never comprehended it because I hadn't seen it before first-hand and in the past anomalies caused the premiums to rise as gold made modest moves. A sustained, large, doubling of gold's price was something I didn't have experience tracking.
I guess we would need gold at about $3,800 or so to have an MS-65 common selling for $4K.
Comments
It's not rocket science to understand what happens to the currency when the Fed pumps trillions into the bond market in order to keep the markets from imploding. You can't have it both ways, and you're gonna have to choose between your stocks and precious metals. Chickens don't count.
I knew it would happen.
Chickens may count more than you think.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Survivor bias is non-existent if you hold an index mutual fund or ETF. Nobody holds all 500 stocks except ETF participating broker dealers.
.
What if an entity were to sell short all the individual stocks in the S&P 500, and go long the index itself by an equal amount ?
When a particular stock is dropped from the S&P, the price of that stock will likely drop. After said drop, buy that stock to close out the short position in it. And when a new stock is added to the S&P, the price of that stock will often go up. After the initial increase, sell short that individual stock to keep everything balanced.
Is there a transaction or "finance" cost in holding a short position in a stock for an extended period of time ?
.
Sure they do and I own and will continue to own all of the above. It's called diversification and P.S. I sleep like a baby. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Yes, when you short a stock you are "borrowing" it from someone else therefore you will have to pay the brokers margin rate. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Your position might be proven correct in 50 or 500 years or never.
I suspect most Americans will take a steady, diversified 8-10% a year.
I suspect most Americans will take a steady, diversified 8-10% a year.
(While they are getting Weimar'ed.)
I knew it would happen.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Goldminers, as gold has risen premiums have shrunk. I think once gold stabilizes here or higher premiums will expand.
Still....imagine I had told you a year or more back that an MS-65 Saint would be $3,000 ??
BTW, I would bet that many or most of those 65's are all "C" coins and probably closer to MS-64's.
Premiums have really shrunk so you will need a much higher gold price for the OP to come to fruition.
Still.....some of you vets probably can remember when you had to goto the MS-67 or even MS-68 level (if available) to hit the $3,000 level for a common Saint !!
5 months later
Well, I nailed the direction of gold nicely -- was even too conservative there -- but I totally misunderstood how premiums would act in the face of a rising gold price.
Kudos to the vets here like PeakR and MFeld for nailing the premiums vs. rising gold prices dichotomy. I never comprehended it because I hadn't seen it before first-hand and in the past anomalies caused the premiums to rise as gold made modest moves. A sustained, large, doubling of gold's price was something I didn't have experience tracking.
I guess we would need gold at about $3,800 or so to have an MS-65 common selling for $4K.