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Big drop in the mintage of 2024-W Four coin Proof AGE sets from last year....on sale May 2nd.
Goldbully
Posts: 16,893 ✭✭✭✭✭
2023 Four coin proof set mintage was 13,000 now 10,000.....down 23.08%
2023 one ounce proof mintage was 22,500 now 19,500........down 13.3%
2023 half ounce proof mintage was 16,000 now 15,000........down 6.25%
2023 quarter ounce proof mintage was 19,000 now 18,000..down 5.26%
2023 one tenth ounce proof mintage was 31,000 now 28,000..down 9.68%
Not sure when the mintage of the AGE coins were originally published, but does it reflect a decrease in demand or is it the increase in gold prices?..............or both?
Your thoughts?
3
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By sometime in 2025, they will quite possibly be worth spot plus $150 - yes? For a massive loss- right?
So, unless they get the mintage down to around 1945, what is the reason to buy any?
What am I missing here?
Wondercoin.
Thank you for posting this Bully, but it is become a non-event.
Bless the steadfast and strong hearts of those that continue to buy these every year.
In answer to your question, both.
didn't they sell them all last year?
"Sold" number from the 4/21/24 sales report; "Product Limit" number from the linked 'product pages' on 04/26/24.
0.10 oz. (23EE) - 13,419 sold / 18,000 product limit
0.25 oz (23ED) - 4,491 sold / 6,000 product limit
0.50 oz. (23EC) - 2,011 sold / 3,000 product limit
1.00 oz. (23EB) - 6,472 sold / 9,500 product limit
4-Coin Set (23EF) - 9,976 sold / 13,000 product limit
Note - my 2023 "product limits" do not 'synch' with the figures in the OP.
Gold is just to pricey to begin with, and the premiums on these do not help. Of course I am subscribed to the US Army silver medal and the silver proof set in May, and those carry their own hefty premium. Pick your poison as has been said.
I don't think you're missing anything.
I don't consider any of the mintages low, because the relevant comparison isn't the total made, but the number in high or comparable quality.
10 is 10, even if all 10 are 70s. The problem here isn't quality but demand.
Other than if you’re a diehard keeping a set alive, I just cannot comprehend the necessity to purchase these. Especially at the markup. What’s the gain? Where’s the potential??
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
My thoughts are that they are STILL wildly optimistic with respect to what they are going to be able to sell. As we discussed before in the other thread a few weeks ago, their failure to reduce the gross premium to spot as spot rises make these uncompetitive with what's available in the secondary market, both classic and modern.
Beyond that, all they've really done is try to map the mintage to what they sold last year, while failing to take into account that spot was around $400 less at release last year. They really just don't have a clue, either on how to set the price to stimulate demand, or to accurately predict sales based on how they price.
So, they are doomed to stick with their pricing grid and shake their heads wondering where the demand went. It will return if spot declines significantly. Or, if it rises so much that the premium becomes insignificant in relation to spot.
It’s so darn simple as NJCoin summed it up too.
I read somewhere about the brilliance (lol) of the former Mint Director in coming up with the W quarters program or maybe it was the gold privy coin (or figuring out that his own autograph should be worth a small fortune by simply numbering COA’s) - something about the brilliance of some higher up Mint employees.
And, I think - are they referring to the same “geniuses” that can’t figure out why they have destroyed nearly every Mint program that ever existed with their utterly ridiculous pricing grids?
Wondercoin.
To be fair, they did take a program that made little or no money annually and made it profitable.
The real issue is why could they not make any money for years and years? To then raise prices through the roof to get a short term profit accomplishes nothing in the long run in my opinion. It simply destroys the value of many of the existing programs and the assets held by hundreds of thousands of their previous customers. Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin.
Gold is still in demand but maybe not as much at these mint prices. They're over $3200 for a one ounce and how many four coin sets would you like for $6072 each? Doesn't that seem overpriced to you? If these prices were lower, you might opt to buy, but when you see these price tags, it's easy to pass.
When PR70's of other dates can be obtained for far less every day on the seconary market, yes indeed, it is easy to pass on the USM offerings.
I prefer them in uncirculated not proof. I think they're too pricey (premiums too high) and can't even be used in govt approved Gold IRAs. Not that many here trust depositories, but many outside of here do.
If I wanted to buy gold at this level, why not just pick up a couple Double Eagles at a small premium and pocket the left over cash?
Mark
While that's true, I'm not sure the Mint doesn't find the whole collector market to be a distraction from their core mission.
I sold off all 6 of my 1988-1992 sets for 5200 each on FleaBay, and was glad to get rid of them, also sold some 1987 proof AGE 1 and 1/2 ounce sets well over spot even after selling fees, and several 1986 1 oz proof, everything with OGP. Glad to be rid of it to spend on things that I actually like. Also sold off a bunch of various 3-6 coin commemorative sets with 1 or 2 1/4 oz gold all OGP.
I felt like it was greatly overpriced bullion.
Now I'm upgrading my Lincolns, and I took Dan's advise and sent my 1909SVDB MS64RB OGH Rattler to GC because I want a nice toned 65BN and then have to find a matching 14-D, stuff that I enjoy looking at.
Yes and no. They make money selling hundreds of thousands of proof and uncirculated silver coins at far higher premiums than they did previously. Basically comparable to what other world mints do.
If it was really all about being profitable, given that it's a federal agency, I'm sure there is a TON of waste they could eliminate, without engaging in price gouging of dedicated, price insensitive collectors. Killing demand for collector gold coins does nothing for their bottom line. There are plenty of people who would love to own one or more of the coins they are about to put on sale, but who will take a pass at a $900 per ounce premium to $2400 per ounce gold.
Without running the numbers, I am quite sure that there is a number below $900 per ounce at which the Mint could market these coins and make more than whatever they are going at make at current prices. This would also serve their core mission of putting more collector coins in more collector hands.
But, at the end of the day, they just don't know what they are doing, and lack the knowledge and experience of people like @wondercoin with intimate knowledge of their market -- US moderns.
As a result, we are where we are. Ryder probably brought in consultants and they came back with a report showing how much money they were leaving on the table with their pricing from back in the day.
So, they took a blunt instrument to their pricing, and the result is $80/oz silver, which the market tolerates because it is consistent with what collector coins all over the world go for. And, they make a lot more money than they would at $50/oz, without materially killing demand.
Apply that same strategy to $2000+ gold, however, and you get a different result, purely based on the gross dollars involved. Much smaller market to start with. And, really no justification for a $900 per coin premium to the value of the precious metal content. None, other than a lack of understanding of how to maximize profit by stimulating demand.
There is a very interesting sell offer on the dealer network at this moment (it’s been running for a while). A dealer is offering a hoard of fresh 4 pc 2023 proof gold eagle sets that are no longer selling at the Mint. But, if they were selling, they would be priced at $6,070 at the moment. The dealer is asking the very reasonable price of $5,200 assuming anyone actually wanted any of these. An $870 discount per set. No takers yet.
The problem is the highest buy price on proof gold 4 pc. Sets at the moment is $150 - $250 over spot. This particular date falls under the $150 over spot buy price. That comes to $4,625/set as the highest buy price out there. Even if one could find $250 over spot, that comes to $4,810/set.
So, the Mint wants $6,070/set
Dealer(s) sitting on the Mint product would like $5,200/set to say “bye bye” to the product
Collectors needing to sell at current market can expect to find $4,625 - $4,810/set tops. Probably closer to melt (around $4,350/set) at most coin shops that need to make a few dollars profit on their buys.
So, that’s a 20% -25% (minimum) haircut for collectors buying this mint product that need to sell it for any personal reasons that might come up. These proof gold sets have become akin to purchasing brand new cars, driving them off the lot and trying to get 75% of your money back when you turn the next corner from the dealer showroom. How in the world can one ever continue to add annual coins to their sets under these numbers? This is a very serious question. Not an argumentative one.
Wondercoin.
Yup. This is EXACTLY the situation that was implied by your earlier comments. I paid $5,332.50 for my set last year directly from the Mint, so $5,200 represents a very modest profit for a dealer who might have been sitting on them for a year, after whatever discount they get from the Mint and after a 20%+ increase in the value of gold over that time.
The fire sale really isn't that interesting, though, once you consider the dealer's motivation. What I inferred from your earlier comments was that, by killing demand for current year product, the Mint was also destroying demand for prior year issues.
Because many collectors who buy annual sets will get frustrated as they are priced out of the market, and might instead decide to sell their prior year sets because they cannot justify continuing to collect them. That overhang is what prevents the sets from appreciating, even as gold's price rises.
And then, similarly, if fewer new people get involved in a series due to the pricing, there will be fewer people seeking out prior year sets. Reducing demand at the same time supply increases due to people getting frustrated and liquidating.
My guess is that is what whoever is sitting on a bunch of 2023 sets at around $5K each is thinking as they contemplate 10K 2024 sets about to hit the market at over $6K. An $870 discount is only an $870 discount if someone would otherwise buy at $6,070. The vast majority of people will not, so it's not really a deal, and $5200 for $4300 worth of gold in a dying series is hardly a bargain.
1yearchg +345.60/oz or +17.35% SPOT GOLD MARKET. A fabulous year for gold.
Roughly a year ago, NJCoin bought his 2023 annual proof gold set for $5,332.50. If that set moved simply with the 17.35% rise in the metal, NJCoin could flip the set for over $6,250.00 today. But, he can not.
Instead, NJCoin can likely not even flip the set for a Small loss at $5,200.00 (same as the dealer has been unsuccessful in selling his sets at $5,200.00). The true market on the set is $4,625.00 right now. NJCoin would lose more than 13% on his investment over 1 year on a set that saw the spot metal rise 17.35% in that same year!! Could you imagine if you bought 5-10 sets as many folks used to do in the early days of the proof gold program!
Just the facts.
Wondercoin.
Edited to add: So, on May 2nd as Goldbully points out the Mint will sell the 2024 version for not $5,332.50/set, but around $6,070.00/set, give or take. We see it doesn’t end well with a 17.35% return on the metal year over year. But, at 40%-50% return on the metal, it should end up well. That’s around $4,000 - $4,500/oz. Gold by this time next year! Man would I make a come back on my Gold Spouse remaining inventory if that happened!
1,000,000% agree. Of course, the sets are really not bought as precious metal investments, but rather, as limited edition collectibles with a precious metal floor supporting at least some value.
I, of course, took a $900/oz hit on the gold value when I bought, which was nauseating. But I did it because I wanted the set, and the Mint is the only source for a fresh, unpicked through set at release. A lot more than I wanted to spend, and, as the chart posted by @MetroD above demonstrates, the Mint sold around 10K of a 13K product limit at that price.
Fast forward a year. Gold is now $400/oz higher, but the Mint is sticking with a $900/oz premium, turning a $5,332.50 purchase into a $6.072.50 one. Further killing demand, but they are going to map the product limit to what they sold last year for $740 less, only furthering the death spiral of the product. It is disappointing and unnecessary.
I'm out this year. Not because I cannot afford it, but because I can no longer justify it. Not that I really could last year, either.
Maybe I'll pick it up later, depending on what happens with final mintages, the price of gold, etc. But, I doubt it, given that it's inevitable that every year for the foreseeable future is going to have a lower mintage than the one before, destroying whatever premium might otherwise attach to earlier sets. Having the price of gold collapse to possibly stimulate demand won't really help me either, will it? 😀
Having the price of gold collapse to possibly stimulate demand won't really help me either, will it? 😀
Actually, the flip side of that may help you. I forecast that at $5,000/oz spot gold, people will be stepping over each other to dump their gold products and cash out. These 2024 proof gold sets will then melt for $9250.00. You may then successfully be able to pick one up at a mere $50 over melt or $9,300.00. But, even then, why would you? 😝
Just my 2 cents and remember I never stated when exactly that $5,000/oz. Spot price will take place!
Wondercoin.
With gold at all time highs, it makes absolutely no sense to buy any of the Mint's gold products.
This is something the brain trust at the Mint never took into consideration methinks.
Wondercoin is correct, the only way the Mint is going to successfully sell these coins is by drastically lowering the mintages.....and that ain't gonna happen.
We should start predicting the number of these coins that will be sold.
I'll start...........
There is no way there will be more than 3,000 four coin sets sold.
As far as the one ouncer, I say maybe 2,500 sold.
Anyone else?
Of course, the sets are really not bought as precious metal investments, but rather, as limited edition collectibles with a precious metal floor supporting at least some value.
Except that it really isn't much of a limited edition collectible, because the mintages aren't really low for a coin in this quality or even "high" quality. At this price point, it's downright common.
What everyone is really describing here is that this coinage isn't interesting enough as a collectible, to very many buyers.
I agree with the part of your comment about buying it with limited downside risk from the metal content. That's always been my prior assumption why this many buy it at all.
The Mint sets the max 2024 mintage on the 1 oz proof coin at 29,500 units (10,000 + 19,500)
Goldbully predicts the Mint sells (and reports on selling) the shockingly low number of 5,500 total 1 oz proof coins in 2024.
The Coin Press thereafter reports this exciting news and a few collectors even race out to buy a few on the secondary market for more than the original mint issue price. That is until the reports come out on the sale of 2026 proof 1 oz coins at the sub-5,000 total (2 years later). Nearly all value on the 2024 coins are instantly lost.
This all happens until the Mintage eventually spirals down to sub-3,000 coins (maybe before the year 2040). At that point, the coins get compared to the “classic” 2020-W Gold privy coins and their incredible low 1945 mintage. Goldbully - care to venture a guess as to the value of the 2020-W Gold privy coin in perfect PR70 First Day by this time (around 2040).
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Nah. You're being far too pessimistic. The premium as a percent of the intrinsic is the lowest it's been in years.
They sold 10K sets and 6500 one ounce singles last year at only $400 less than they will offered for this year. The mintages have been adjusted accordingly, but the Mint is chasing it down, rather than setting it low enough to guarantee a sellout and create a secondary market value.
They sold 1945 75th anniversary coins, and those are worth $15-20K+. There will be demand for far more than 2500 singles and 3000 sets at $3250 and 6072.50, respectively. My ballpark would be around 7500 sets and 5000 singles.
Mitch -- with all due respect, you are misreading the limits. All of the individual limits INCLUDE what goes into the sets.
The one ounce is 10K+9.5K=19.5K total, not 19.5K plus 10K. The one ounce limit last year was 22.5K, and it is going down by the 3K that the sets are going down by. Even they know they could never sell 29.5K coins at a $900 premium to melt.
Thank you very much NJCoin for that clarification. And, while I tend to agree with you that the public will buy more than 5,500 of the 2024 1 oz. Coins, it won’t change my conclusion (guess) of a downward spiral of sales eventually to 3,000 - 4,000 total sales of the proof 1 Oz coins (and even slightly less for $10 and $25 coins) over the next (20) years.
Wondercoin.
Maybe they could package them with 1st spouse coins and really boost sales.
Mrs. Obama coins - YES!!
Wondercoin.
Oh dear, you're wishing ill will on Michelle?
Hey- if Coolidge could appear on a U.S. Coin during his lifetime, why can’t Mrs. Obama too?
Wondercoin.
Fair enough. Of course, if the BTW commemorative can be struck for almost a decade, why can't we restrike all the spouses?
>
It is bad enough that spouses were struck once, let alone twice. Grounds for divorce.
Pretty sure Rosalynn Carter would be next in line.
As far as the 2024 gold proof set, I have no interest in throwing away so much money on the mint premium and grading as well. The Mint has finally destroyed this series for me, and probably many others, exactly as @wondercoin and @NJCoin have stated.
National Commemorative Medals of the U.S. Mint:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/medals-tokens/national-commemorative-medals-united-states-mint-1940-present/alltimeset/195526
‘’The Mint has finally destroyed this series for me’’
The last holdout has finally surrendered! 😆
Wondercoin.
$900 premium over spot to strike and market a 1 oz proof gold coin.
$50 premium over spot to strike and market a 1 oz proof silver coin.
Why not go all the way and raise the premium on silver to $900 over spot as well?
I agree - they are killing their own customer base.
I knew it would happen.
as predicted
Love this thread, love this informative thread!
Can this thread please be sent to the people in charge at the US MINT.., PLEASE!
Sale starts tomorrow.....here are the prices..............
Woohoo!!! For what it's worth, the Mint does seem to know these are not going to sell out, even with such "low" product limits, since they set the purchase limits at 3 rather than 1.
>
Good catch. Has the Mint ever offered a HL of more than 1 before, for the AGE's?
I can only recall the HL=1 for these coins.
Not in recent memory. Again, due to the relatively low product limits and the desire to achieve wide distribution.
The HHL of 3 indicates that, while they are married to their pricing grid, they realize they are not going to be selling the same quantities they sold last year, at the same premium to spot, with spot being $300-400 higher than last year.
The HHL is simply irrelevant, because they are also not going to sell out when the HHL is lifted.
4 Coin set is a keeper .. ... thanks for heads up ...GB..
Round number moon money predictions rarely pan out in our lifetimes
And, I think - are they referring to the same “geniuses” that can’t figure out why they have destroyed nearly every Mint program that ever existed with their utterly ridiculous pricing grids?
Wondercoin.
The pricey Mint products came about after Mint products released Doubled Tripled in price.. sometimes the same day of release .. Then A new mint director came in, raised prices to have the Mint keep some of market price premiums of their products ..
I’m in for the household limit but I’m afraid I won’t get in before the 3 minute sellout😂
Good luck to the ones that do
Martin
Very true, but that's not this. No gold coins with mintages anywhere near these ever doubled or tripled upon release.
Yes, a new Mint director came, and raised pricing in line with what other world mints charge for numismatic products, even though the US Mint does much higher volumes. It is what it is, and it's fine if the market will absorb it.
The market will not, however, absorb 19,000 one ounce gold coins at a $900 premium to a $2300 intrinsic value, so many of the coins will either sit in their warehouse, or never be made in the first place.
This does a disservice to everyone since, if the coins were priced more intelligently, in line with the actual market, they would sell more, actually fulfilling their mandate, while also generating more profit for the US Treasury. But again, it is what it is, and it's fine, since proof AGEs are not a necessity so we will just have to do without.