What price guide do you use most? What second?
Married2Coins
Posts: 309 ✭✭✭
I hope members regard this as a serious question. We all know that price guides are just that -GUIDS! We all know that a coin is only worth what someone who is knowledgeable will pay for it so prices at auction should be considered but Registry Sets probably screw the prices on occasion. I subscribe to Coin Prices, Numismat News and Coin World. I also have access to a grey sheet at my local BMCS. However, this is why I ask. I was looking to buy a Classic U.S. stamp in an auction Friday and my Scott value guide listed it at over $170 used. Stamp collectors know that Scott prices are totally wacky and 50% of Scott is commonly quoted. When I looked on Ebay, I saw dozens of the exact stamp in the same condition (color, centering, etc) listed for BIN prices of less than $30!
So, What guides your purchase price? How firm are grayseet prices (I know it must depend on the particular coin and market condition). I hear dealrs talk about "back of Bid." I don't consider myself a troll or newbe but I just realized that this is a very stupid question due to so many variables that cannot be answered simply. Sorry, but perhaps you'll give it a try
Comments
Grey sheet for me. Perhaps PCGS price guide second
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I use CAC price guide for retail on CAC coins and Greysheet for a view of "wholesale". I like looking at HA auctions because it shows multiple price guides in a nice convenient table.
I usually start in CoinFacts and go to the auction history. If there’s a recent sale from HA I click there to see what they say Bid is.
I used to buy a Greysheet every so often (especially if going to a show) but not since they quit doing the package with everything from the past year.
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Always expect the unexpected to happen, as it will anyway no matter what you do
Greysheet as a base. I do a lot of eBay sales comparisons too, but that takes some serious scrutinizing.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
PCGS price guide and auction comparables.
Coin world price trends are pretty accurate, too.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947)
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Three questions. Where are you doing most of your buying? What types of coins are you buying? Are you also buying CAC coins?
P.S. Used stamps are probably the weakest portion of the stamp collecting market.
I agree with @ShaunBC5.
Except for the commonest coins in grades in large quantities, most of the time, in my opinion, other coins are not commodities, but vary tremendously in eye appeal (and value). While the OP correctly states that guides are just guides, looking at “recent” real life auction results for coins in that grade that look similar is generally more accurate than the price guides.
But the FIRST thing I do is try to research if THAT actual coin has been sold in auction. I look at PCGS’s Auction Prices Realized, and the same thing for GC. If found, I then make a rough adjustment based on WHEN the most recent auction of THAT coin took place!
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Coins:
1. ebay Sold items, if there are not too many to look up
2. Numismedia.com FMV for US coins
3. numista.com for world coins
Stamps:
1. ebay Sold items.
2. stampworld.com
All are free online sources.
Stamps sell for more like 15% of Scott catalog value.
I use a combination of PCGS Coinfacts and recent ebay listings. Keep in mind I'm new to this, I haven't bought any coins over $400, and I don't have a greysheet subscription.
I use the PCGS Price Guide, and reduce the price shown by about 25%-30% to get me in the general ballpark.
Dave
Coin shows and local dealers. I'm working on two type sets. One in G/VG and the other VF/XF with the modern stuff in Unc. Bo problem coins so I can only add a few coins a year as I'm down to the hard to find ones. In the meantime, I've decided to put an Ike dollar collection on my list to scratch my itch.
Numismedia FMV to get an idea of retail price.
For raw and slabbed generic US gold coins, I'll check JM Bullion and APMEX to see what they are charging for their coins. I consider these to be retail prices.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
On slabbed coins I use Greysheet, CPG, and PCGS and add all of them as notes to any GC auctions in the notes on stuff I'm bidding on. For unslabbed I use EBay completed items.
Sadly, I live in the middle of rural nowhere, so no local coin dealer or other collectors to directly meet up with -- I love my place and have gigabit Internet but just not big enough to support anything but jewelers that want stuff free and ask extreme prices on bullion and any coins.
I use PCGS price guide mainly because I only purchase PCGS certified coins CAC’d or not depending on eye appeal. I feel comfortable paying at + or - 10%. I also try to trace the coin’s history in recent Heritage auctions. I used to use Greysheet, but in today’s market realistically, those prices now seem low. Can’t find nice eye appealing coins at those prices.
Sounds good, but one minor tip. Even though it sounds like you may be buying coins mainly (or only) from Heritage, rather than using their Auction history tool, I suggest you consider using the PCGS Auction Prices Realized tool instead, as that will still show those same Heritage auction results, but will also show in that one screen, auction results from Stacks, Legend, DLRC, etc. (but in general not GC).
Happy Hunting!
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Thanks for your input Steve. I have never purchased any coins from Heritage auctions. I just visit the site to see if the coin I'm about to buy, has recently been sold on that site and possible history. I do use the PCGS Auction prices realized, but forgot to mention that. Zack
Refer to - PCGS Coin Facts, CDN - whsl Bid & CDN CPG Retail (CDN Digital Dealer app). Cost Plus also a data factor. PG Data from all entered in SS plus column for cost plus. Then analyze the big picture. Basically a big picture overview analyst / strategy kind of guy.
I agree with what several people have said so far. it takes a village to price a coin. the original poster mentioned there are so many variables and in truth that is why I can't point to one guide and say "That is the specific price" of a certain coin.
I build a price history using all the tools mentioned so far and then adjust everything according to how I view each specific coin.
I am not trying to brag but more than 50% of the time I can predetermine the final sale price of a coin I am tracking. having said that, you should also know I often times don't or can't actually buy the coin and this ONLY pertains to the tiny area I collect in. James
Great Collections or Heritage sold listings.
20% of Scott is more normal. Scott makes no attempt to bring their catalogs in line with current pricing.
PCGS data - list less 20 and recent auctions. CAC list less 20. For starters. I will go higher for a nice coin but try to use list as my max. For coins infrequently traded, gut.
Greysheet -10% back of bid. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Ebay completed sales and auctions.
Most of my purchases are modern raw, coupled with occasional die marriage or variety.
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
PCGS
CAC
The OP said “price guides”, but I also reference auction results.
“The thrill of the hunt never gets old”
PCGS Registry: Screaming Eagles
Copperindian
Retired sets: Soaring Eagles
Copperindian
1)Greysheets... adjusted with my secret formula that I keep next to the Coco Cola formula.
or
2)Gut feel.
As you can see from the responses, fair pricing coins can be a lot of work, especially as you go up the dollar value scale. If you are just starting out at the shallow end of the pool, concentrate more on finding nice eye appealing coins and check out some of the top auction houses.
Up until five seconds before the auction closes, mainly analyses and extrapolations from Coin Facts and eBay auction prices.
In the last five seconds, more primal analyses involving nuclear wallet-fare.
The most accurate and simplest for me is ebay's sold coin history.
Jim
When a man who is honestly mistaken hears the truth, he will either quit being mistaken or cease to be honest....Abraham Lincoln
Patriotism is supporting your country all the time, and your government when it deserves it.....Mark Twain
I use recent comps. Auction records, etc. In my mind, they get weighted much more significantly than any published guide. Recent sales are a place to start, considering each coin’s particular attributes, grades, plastic, and stickers, (in that order).
Beyond that, I look at CU and CAC’s guides. This approach is more applicable to more valuable coins, of course. For coins in the $50-$500 range, published guides are probably relevant enough.
Thanks for all the responses. I have some new places to look!
PCGS as a starting point, auction h/x next.
CDN/CPG first, Price guide second. As always, auction comps are by far the most reliable though.
Type Collector of U.S. Pre-33 Gold https://instagram.com/deplorable_dan Successful transactions with- @drfish, @Cladiator, @johnny010, @Pedzola, @PerryHall, @2windy2fish, @Ike1964, @JohnThePainter, @rpmsrpms, @REALGATOR
I'm not a big ticket item guy. Red book for a quick reference ballpark estimate (if it's within my range), then eBay recently sold.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
recent sold listings.
For buying in shop on regular stuff, I use basically what It will bring on Ebay minus a percentage that varies depending on coin type, quality, how easy to not to sell, etc For the nicer stuff, I use greysheet and auction prices realized or a combination therefof.
Yes many here have their opinion that xprice guide or what somebody blew it out at auction is a a retail price lol, the one, etc. . I don’t let that bother me. Just work my angle as discussed above. A lot of stuff just markup Cost plus anyway. Some buyers ignorant of pricing want 25-30 pct off (modus operindi) so pad that stuff accordingly once you get to know how that buyer operates.
I also have a good relationship with several dealers. My best buys come from the quick turrounds the make. Last week I got a diamond ring at 10% over melt and the diamonds (1.6 carats total) were thrown in for free! Only problem is he is holding it for thirty days to make sure its not hot. I'm waiting for an Ike set to drop in. I can use it as a starter and upgrade if needed.
“I suggest you consider using the PCGS Auction Prices Realized tool instead, as that will still show those same Heritage auction results, but will also show in that one screen, auction results from Stacks, Legend, DLRC, etc. (but in general not GC).”
I am with you Steve.
Wayne
Kennedys are my quest...
I triangulate auction price history with Stacks, Great Collections and Heritage. HA and Stacks having the higher quality coins generally.
Main Sources for price research:
I can't say I use the NGC and PCGS price guides often but when I do, (unless I'm reading them wrong) their prices are nowhere near the reality of the current market values!
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Greysheet, PCGS listings, auction listings and my gut.